Comments on: Millennial Climate Cycles Driven by Random Cloud Variations http://www.drroyspencer.com/2010/06/millennial-climate-cycles-driven-by-random-cloud-variations/ Climate Change Research Scientist, Author, Former NASA Scientist Sat, 04 Feb 2012 03:21:48 +0000 http://wordpress.org/?v=2.9.2 hourly 1 By: Ways to optimize blog traffic | The Blog With A Internet Marketing Twist http://www.drroyspencer.com/2010/06/millennial-climate-cycles-driven-by-random-cloud-variations/#comment-252 Ways to optimize blog traffic | The Blog With A Internet Marketing Twist Sun, 13 Jun 2010 18:05:05 +0000 http://www.drroyspencer.com/?p=2193#comment-252 [...] Millennial Climate Cycles Driven by Random Cloud Variations « Roy Spencer, Ph. D. [...] [...] Millennial Climate Cycles Driven by Random Cloud Variations « Roy Spencer, Ph. D. [...]

]]> By: oracle2world http://www.drroyspencer.com/2010/06/millennial-climate-cycles-driven-by-random-cloud-variations/#comment-195 oracle2world Mon, 07 Jun 2010 15:12:33 +0000 http://www.drroyspencer.com/?p=2193#comment-195 Not to sound too flippant amongst the scientific analyses ... I like warm weather. Not to sound too flippant amongst the scientific analyses … I like warm weather.

]]> By: Demetris Koutsoyiannis http://www.drroyspencer.com/2010/06/millennial-climate-cycles-driven-by-random-cloud-variations/#comment-143 Demetris Koutsoyiannis Sat, 05 Jun 2010 20:00:36 +0000 http://www.drroyspencer.com/?p=2193#comment-143 (This I submitted a couple of days ago but did not appear--trying a second time) Nice post! Perhaps you may find some relevance with my articles: Koutsoyiannis, D., A toy model of climatic variability with scaling behaviour, Journal of Hydrology, 322, 25–48, 2006. (http://www.itia.ntua.gr/en/docinfo/648/) Koutsoyiannis, D., A random walk on water, Hydrology and Earth System Sciences, 14, 585–601, 2010. (http://www.itia.ntua.gr/en/docinfo/923/) Some differences are that the “dynamics” I use are “toy” conceptualizations and that I do not use any random perturbation on anything at all–but again the long-term fluctuations are reproduced including the emergence of Hurst-Kolmogorov behaviour. Regards, Demetris (This I submitted a couple of days ago but did not appear–trying a second time)

Nice post!

Perhaps you may find some relevance with my articles:

Koutsoyiannis, D., A toy model of climatic variability with scaling behaviour, Journal of Hydrology, 322, 25–48, 2006. (http://www.itia.ntua.gr/en/docinfo/648/)

Koutsoyiannis, D., A random walk on water, Hydrology and Earth System Sciences, 14, 585–601, 2010. (http://www.itia.ntua.gr/en/docinfo/923/)

Some differences are that the “dynamics” I use are “toy” conceptualizations and that I do not use any random perturbation on anything at all–but again the long-term fluctuations are reproduced including the emergence of Hurst-Kolmogorov behaviour.

Regards,

Demetris

]]> By: Anonymous http://www.drroyspencer.com/2010/06/millennial-climate-cycles-driven-by-random-cloud-variations/#comment-140 Anonymous Sat, 05 Jun 2010 17:54:27 +0000 http://www.drroyspencer.com/?p=2193#comment-140 Thanks, Roy for a nice example of how it is possible to have a simple model which displays similar behaviour to observed result by varying the amount of cloud cover - no CO2 required. My thought is that climate is the history of past seasons/weather events and is driven by deterministic chaos rather than a random walk. The whole concept of climate 'forcing' is not useful when trying to understand how and why climate oscillates. I think the internal/external mechanisms needs to be treated as an integrated dynamic system if real progress is to be made. Thanks, Roy for a nice example of how it is possible to have a simple model which displays similar behaviour to observed result by varying the amount of cloud cover – no CO2 required.

My thought is that climate is the history of past seasons/weather events and is driven by deterministic chaos rather than a random walk. The whole concept of climate ‘forcing’ is not useful when trying to understand how and why climate oscillates. I think the internal/external mechanisms needs to be treated as an integrated dynamic system if real progress is to be made.

]]> By: kwik http://www.drroyspencer.com/2010/06/millennial-climate-cycles-driven-by-random-cloud-variations/#comment-135 kwik Sat, 05 Jun 2010 05:16:40 +0000 http://www.drroyspencer.com/?p=2193#comment-135 Oh, yes, just to mention it; I understand that this 4 degrees water cannot radiate this heat immediately when it rise again, put the sun would then heat it up again. Its just that it is "pre-heated" 0.5 degrees? Why I mention it? Well, where should the energy otherwise be stored for decades? I read somewhere that some of these currents takes a long time to travel from A to B. Oh, yes, just to mention it; I understand that this 4 degrees water cannot radiate this heat immediately when it rise again, put the sun would then heat it up again. Its just that it is “pre-heated” 0.5 degrees? Why I mention it? Well, where should the energy otherwise be stored for decades? I read somewhere that some of these currents takes a long time to travel from A to B.

]]> By: kwik http://www.drroyspencer.com/2010/06/millennial-climate-cycles-driven-by-random-cloud-variations/#comment-134 kwik Sat, 05 Jun 2010 05:06:27 +0000 http://www.drroyspencer.com/?p=2193#comment-134 Dr. Spencer; I'm curious about one thing; Can the oceans store heat for, say, 60 years, and then release it? It seems to me the warmest water must be in the upper layers, and is therefore, it seems, radiated back into the athmosphere with months or so? At one point we say it is salinity that makes the water currents descend. And that it is unphysical that warmer water can descend. On the other hand, if enourmos amounts of water is e.g. +4 degrees instead of +3.5 degrees that would represent quite a lot of energy difference, when it rise to the surface again? Dr. Spencer; I’m curious about one thing; Can the oceans store heat for, say, 60 years, and then release it? It seems to me the warmest water must be in the upper layers, and is therefore, it seems, radiated back into the athmosphere with months or so?

At one point we say it is salinity that makes the water currents descend. And that it is unphysical that warmer water can descend. On the other hand, if enourmos amounts of water is e.g. +4 degrees instead of +3.5 degrees that would represent quite a lot of energy difference, when it rise to the surface again?

]]> By: Roy W. Spencer, Ph. D. http://www.drroyspencer.com/2010/06/millennial-climate-cycles-driven-by-random-cloud-variations/#comment-120 Roy W. Spencer, Ph. D. Fri, 04 Jun 2010 18:55:55 +0000 http://www.drroyspencer.com/?p=2193#comment-120 OK, gang, I’ve just posted an analysis of the solar cycle data…I get a VERY different result than Tung & Camp: http://www.drroyspencer.com/2010/06/low-climate-sensitivity-estimated-from-the-11-year-cycle-in-total-solar-irradiance/ OK, gang, I’ve just posted an analysis of the solar cycle data…I get a VERY different result than Tung & Camp:

http://www.drroyspencer.com/2010/06/low-climate-sensitivity-estimated-from-the-11-year-cycle-in-total-solar-irradiance/

]]> By: Roy W. Spencer, Ph. D. http://www.drroyspencer.com/2010/06/millennial-climate-cycles-driven-by-random-cloud-variations/#comment-118 Roy W. Spencer, Ph. D. Fri, 04 Jun 2010 18:50:02 +0000 http://www.drroyspencer.com/?p=2193#comment-118 OK, gang, I've just posted an analysis of the solar cycle data...I get a VERY different result than Tung & Camp: http://www.drroyspencer.com/2010/06/low-climate-sensitivity-estimated-from-the-11-year-cycle-in-total-solar-irradiance/ OK, gang, I’ve just posted an analysis of the solar cycle data…I get a VERY different result than Tung & Camp:

http://www.drroyspencer.com/2010/06/low-climate-sensitivity-estimated-from-the-11-year-cycle-in-total-solar-irradiance/

]]> By: Andrew http://www.drroyspencer.com/2010/06/millennial-climate-cycles-driven-by-random-cloud-variations/#comment-114 Andrew Fri, 04 Jun 2010 16:11:17 +0000 http://www.drroyspencer.com/?p=2193#comment-114 Dan Kirk-Davidoff-"Thus, if this model is the null hypothesis, we can confidently reject it as an explanation of the present warming. This would not have been true in, say, 1980: the signal has emerged from the noise." This is like saying, the warming is almost certainly not <i>entirely</i> due to random cloud variations, so <i>none</i> of it can be due to such variations. This does not follow. Additionally, if Camp and Tung's recent paper is like their earlier one, it is not clear at all that they have isolated the signal of solar cycle temperature changes from other factors-their signal was twice as large as several other studies have found, and the forcing associated with the solar cycle is not "known precisely", if there are indirect effects instead of just TSI which is measured. Dan Kirk-Davidoff-”Thus, if this model is the null hypothesis, we can confidently reject it as an explanation of the present warming. This would not have been true in, say, 1980: the signal has emerged from the noise.”

This is like saying, the warming is almost certainly not entirely due to random cloud variations, so none of it can be due to such variations. This does not follow.

Additionally, if Camp and Tung’s recent paper is like their earlier one, it is not clear at all that they have isolated the signal of solar cycle temperature changes from other factors-their signal was twice as large as several other studies have found, and the forcing associated with the solar cycle is not “known precisely”, if there are indirect effects instead of just TSI which is measured.

]]> By: Anonymous http://www.drroyspencer.com/2010/06/millennial-climate-cycles-driven-by-random-cloud-variations/#comment-111 Anonymous Fri, 04 Jun 2010 14:58:50 +0000 http://www.drroyspencer.com/?p=2193#comment-111 I encountered the same error as others here. I am "Bill V" I encountered the same error as others here.
I am “Bill V”

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