UAH Global Temperature Update for April, 2013: +0.10 deg. C

May 3rd, 2013 by Roy W. Spencer, Ph. D.

Our Version 5.5 global average lower tropospheric temperature (LT) anomaly for April, 2013 is +0.10 deg. C, down from +0.18 deg. C in March (click for large version):
UAH_LT_1979_thru_Apr_2013_v5.5
Not surprisingly, the cooling appears to be confined to the Northern Hemisphere…the global, hemispheric, and tropical LT anomalies from the 30-year (1981-2010) average for the last 16 months are:

YR MON GLOBAL NH SH TROPICS
2012 1 -0.134 -0.065 -0.203 -0.256
2012 2 -0.135 +0.018 -0.289 -0.320
2012 3 +0.051 +0.119 -0.017 -0.238
2012 4 +0.232 +0.351 +0.114 -0.242
2012 5 +0.179 +0.337 +0.021 -0.098
2012 6 +0.235 +0.370 +0.101 -0.019
2012 7 +0.130 +0.256 +0.003 +0.142
2012 8 +0.208 +0.214 +0.202 +0.062
2012 9 +0.339 +0.350 +0.327 +0.153
2012 10 +0.333 +0.306 +0.361 +0.109
2012 11 +0.282 +0.299 +0.265 +0.172
2012 12 +0.206 +0.148 +0.264 +0.138
2013 1 +0.504 +0.555 +0.453 +0.371
2013 2 +0.175 +0.368 -0.018 +0.168
2013 3 +0.183 +0.329 +0.038 +0.226
2013 4 +0.103 +0.119 +0.087 +0.168


40 Responses to “UAH Global Temperature Update for April, 2013: +0.10 deg. C”

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  1. My climate temperature forecast by 2020 will be for the monthly average for the globe to come in at a deviation of -.85c, in contrast to the global warming models temp. average forecast of a deviation of +1.1 c.

    My temp. forecast is approx. 2c higher then what the global warming models are saying. A very big difference.

    My forecast is based on the assumption that prolong solar minimum conditions will continue, with solar readings as follows for the balance of this decade once the solar max. of solar cycle 24 passes by which should be within a year.

    The readings are Solar flux to avg. sub 72
    Solar wind to avg. sub 350km
    AP Index to avg. 5.0 or lower
    Solar irradiance off by .2% or more

    If the above solar readings turn out to be the norm for the balance of this decade ,then I expect my temperature forecast by 2020 of -.85c for the globe will verify. correct.

    The above solar readings if attained ,will also be low enough to allow many of the secondary effects to kick in as a result of sustained prolong solar minimum conditions such as solar ultraviolet light emissions to decease by upwards of 50% ,which effects ozone distributions, which causes a more neg. AO circulation which in turn will cause more low clouds, snow cover for N.H,and more precipitation, thus a higher albedo ,thus cooling.
    In addition, more volcanic activity should increase. This results in more so2 emissions, more sunlight absorbed in stratosphere but less reaching the surface, result stratospheric warming surface cooling.

    A weak solar wind should result in an increase in cosmic rays which will aid to increase low cloud coverage, the result cooler temperatures. Earth’s continuing weakening magnetic field will also help promote an increase in cosmic rays entering our atmosphere.

    PDO should remain in a cold phase which seems to be tied to prolong solar minimum conditions the result, less El Ninos, more La Ninas , colder temperatures.

    Atlantic Multidecadel Oscillation should be flip to it’s cold phase as this decade proceeds.

    Ocean heat content will be less due to the visible light emissions from the sun weakening after being very high from 1820-2005 , which had caused ocean heat content to rise.The result lower temperatures.

    Finally the accumulation factor of sub-solar years will be on the increase as this decade proceeds, which will be needed to overcome the lag time which was associated with the sustained long period of active solar conditions prior to year 2005.
    If all the above phase in properly and long enough in duration I expect my temp. forcast for the globe by 2020 will verify.

  2. Roy Spencer says:

    “prediction is very difficult, especially about the future”, Salvatore.

    • Massimo PORZIO says:

      Great quote! :)

    • Rob JM says:

      Predicting the future is easy, you just have to open you mouth!
      Accurately prediction the future is even easier, you just have to invent a time machine!

  3. “prediction about the distant future is very easy because no one will remember how wrong you were.”
    -Roy Spencer

  4. I am going on the record with this. I can’t get out of it. It will all be public. If the temp. do not go down and solar conditions attain those levels I am wrong, and I will admit it. I am not going to try to spin out of it.

    Again it is based on those very low quiet solar readings which I presented in my post.

    Dr. Spencer save this prediction I made and let’s see how it all turns out.

    • Chesshire Cat says:

      Salvatore,

      Your track record at prediction is not so good.

      This is what you predicted last year on this site.

      ===========================================
      salvatore del prete says:
      June 4, 2012 at 11:16 AM

      The temperature trend is no better then even for the last several years. I expect that temp. trend to trend down,likely starting late this year. I expect temperatures to be 0 to -.20C below normal by the end of this year.
      ============================================

      Maybe you can explain why you were wrong and the temperatures never went below +0.2? That is a pretty serious difference since it is greater than the decadal warming trend.

      Even earlier, you made bold prediction about cooling.
      Remember when you read this, that “normal” has been
      raised
      ====================================================
      Salvatore Del Prete says:
      October 30, 2010 at 8:42 am
      PREDICTIONS
      Based on what I see, and I had made these predictions months ago, I feel and this Oct. is a good indication, that the string of above normal monthly temperatures has ended and going forward ,we will be near normal for temperatures. Going out further, temperatures will be coming in below normal, as the quiet sun and all other factors phase more into a cold mode.
      ========================================================

      Maybe you can explain why your were wrong then too. The 12 month average hasn’t even gotten close to the 30 year averages since your prediction.

  5. Bohous says:

    At the beginning of 2013 we had a quite sharp maximum. If you make steps three years long backwards, you always come to a maximum at the beginning of the third year with one extra maximum in the middle of 2005 (until 1997, where the period starts). Is it a natural cycle, or an artefact of smoothing?

    To tell the truth, as a layman I do not incline to make conclusions from a time series as short as this one. Several years ago I visited Demanovska ice cave in Slovakia in summer, when the layers of several hundreds of years of ice were distinctly visible. There were quite regularly alternating cycles of many very thin layers and then one thick layer. The guide said that after more-or-less 50 years of small increment there is regularly a short period of floods which makes the thick layer. I wonder how anybody can forecast future climate from just two or thee cycles of observed data, if we live in such a long-periodic environment.

  6. My temp. predictions are based n solar conditions as quiet or quieter then the Dalton Minimum.

  7. Dave in Canmore says:

    Can anyone tell me what the monthly absolute values are? I can’t find this anywhere.

    Thanks

    • Dave:
      Because these are deep-layer atmospheric average temperatures, they are quite cold…less than freezing (0 deg. C) in the global average. I don’t know what use they would be, but if you need them, I can dig them up.

  8. the solar readings I outlined in my first post have not been reached or sustained

    • Steven Mosher says:

      Then you should use IPCC ‘speak’ and say you are making projections.

      When you cant control the conditions of your test, you cant really make predictions, you can make conditional predictions.. or as the IPCC likes to call them “projections”

  9. Thanks, Dr. Spencer. I have updated your graph in my web pages.

  10. nigel says:

    Dr Spencer thinks 2020 is the “distant future”?!

    • We can forecast weather out 3-5 days pretty well, almost all skill is gone after 10-14 days… so, yes, 7 years for forecasting average weather is pretty distant in my book.

      • mike maguire says:

        This is probably a factor in why meteorologists pull some of the higher numbers in surveys of scientists who are skeptics regarding the AGW issue.

        A good meteorologist knows that weather models have limitations that prevent us from being able to forecast weather several weeks out with much skill as Dr. Spencer mentioned.

        Initial conditions/data will always have gaps that are filled in by models. Some of those gaps will have small errors that grow into bigger and bigger errors as the models attempt to compute the rate of change of the atmosphere over time.

        The so called “Butterfly effect” in a chaotic system.

        Every day we come in, look at weather maps/guidance and anticipate that fresh data fed to models in the last 24 hours will have contributed towards an increased skill level for those days that are now 1 day closer.

        An operational meteorologist forecasting weather out 2 weeks for 30 years will have busted many hundreds of forecasts and knows its because the computer forecast models failed him.

        A climate scientist using global climate models forecasting out for, let’s say a 50 year time frame does not get many opportunities to learn that profound lesson?

        Consider that if he was 30 years old when issuing his first long range climate forecast of that length, (which was the age of a certain Penn State climate scientist that we know of in 1995). The end of that first global climate forecast period will be in 2045, when great grandpa Mann will be 80.

        Just look at how many years its taken to finally appreciate the limitations of global climate models at predicting the future after they diverged from the real world!!!

  11. RW says:

    Re: Salvatore. I agree with Roy – I don’t think anyone has a clue.

  12. To Chessire Cat, you are exactly correct ,I said temperatures would be 0 to -.2 c cooler. I am not all that far off if you look at the monthly temp. running about +.2c above normal for the past many months. I am closer then the global warming model projections.

    I attribute the temperatures being higher then I thought when I made the prediction in OCT. 2010, due to three factors.

    FACTOR ONE- The maximum of SOLAR CYCLE 24 coming on shortly after OCT. 2010, causing the Solar parameters that I said have to be met, to higher then what I posted.

    The Solar parameters neededI in order to get the temperature decline I expect are: SOLAR FLUX SUB 72, AP INDEX SUB 5, SOLAR WIND SUB 350 KM/SEC ,AND SOLAR IRRADIANCE OFF BY.2%

    I am still however very confident once this max of Solar Cycle 24 passes by, which will be in less then a year that those above parameters will be met for the balance of this decade.

    FACTOR TWO- OCEAN HEAT CONTENT I failed to realize how long it takes the OHC to play out. Lag times are substancial,and this factor has played a role in my opinion in keeping the temperatures higher then they would be otherwise, given the level of recent LOW Solar activity (Oct.2005-Present) despite the max of Solar Cycle 24 , which is very weak for a sunspot maximum.

    FACTOR THREE – Limited number of sub-solar years which ties into factor two.

    Even as of today we have had only 7 1/2 years of Sub- Solar activity versus over 100 years of above Solar activity prior to OCT. 2005, hence the OHC is slow to play out.

    As this decade goes on all THREE of these factors will be playing out and the temperature response will verify this by showing a decreasing trend downwards.

  13. To RW, past history suggest if x solar conditions are met for x years(go back to the dalton solar minimum, or maunder solar minimum) that there is a pretty good chance the temperature response will be down.

    I expect those solar conditions are now taking place and have been since oct. 2005,therefore I expect the temp. drop going out to year 2020.

  14. nigel says:

    Gentlemens’ clubs, and officers’ messes,
    in England, used to keep a “wager book”.

    When there was money on a prediction, nobody
    forgot it! Of course, many of the predictions
    were made in drink, and probably regretted.

  15. John Parsons says:

    Chesshire Cat says:
    May 3, 2013 at 10:18 AM

    Thanks CC, I’ve been waiting for someone to do that. JP

  16. John Parsons says:

    salvatore del prete says:

    “…the temperature response will verify this by showing a decreasing trend downwards.”

    A “decreasing trend downwards”? Whaaa…? JP

  17. Stevek says:

    Global warming is simply a method being used to create a hidden tax on the middle class . It will be a carbon tax and increase heating,ac,gas prices. Since the tax will be included in the price it will not be visible, so the middle class peasants will not revolt. Same thing with obamacare which is simply a tax on middle class which enriches the lobby groups.

    The politicians use a fake crises to enrich themselves or their friends. Obamacare, Iraq war, global warming all the same.

  18. Stevek says:

    Sevnmark deserves Nobel prize if cooling continues.

  19. Ivan says:

    That’s weird, because even HadCrut shows clear cooling since 2001:

    http://www.woodfortrees.org/plot/hadcrut3gl/from:2001/to:2013/trend

  20. Werner Brozek says:

    1. For GISS, the slope is flat since February 2001 or 12 years, 2 months. (goes to March)
    2. For Hadcrut3, the slope is flat since April 1997 or 15 years, 11 months. (goes to February)
    3. For a combination of GISS, Hadcrut3, UAH and RSS, the slope is flat since December 2000 or an even 12 years. (goes to November)
    4. For Hadcrut4, the slope is flat since November 2000 or 12 years, 4 months. (goes to February)
    5. For Hadsst2, the slope is flat from March 1, 1997 to March 31, 2013, or 16 years, 1 month. Hadsst2 has not been updated since December. The slope from March 1997 to December 2012 is -0.00015 per year and the flat line is at 0.33. The average for January and February 2013 is 0.299, so at least two months can be added to the period with a slope of less than 0. Furthermore, Dr. Spencer said that “Later I will post the microwave sea surface temperature update, but it is also unchanged from February.“ So since we can rule out a huge upward spike in Hadsst2 for March, I believe I can conclude that if Hadsst2 were updated to March, then there would be no warming for 16 years and 1 month.
    6. For UAH, the slope is flat since July 2008 or 4 years, 10 months. (goes to April)
    7. For RSS, the slope is flat since December 1996 or 16 years and 4 months. (goes to March) RSS is 196/204 or 96% of the way to Ben Santer’s 17 years.

  21. Tim Wells says:

    The weather in the UK is Quintessential at the moment, I can’t remember the last time a bank holiday was so nice. Winters are back to normal in the UK, we just need a decent summer, because we haven’t had one since 2006 and that finished early. Don’t believe everything you hear about man made global warming, too many people have something to lose, it reminds me of the European Union that us British want to leave.

  22. Marcus says:

    Hi,
    The table at
    http://vortex.nsstc.uah.edu/data/msu/t2lt/uahncdc.lt
    does not seem to have been updated with April 2013 data. Is it too early for this?

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