I’ve posted a new article that shows from (1) five years of satellite data, (2) a simple 3-layer climate model to interpret those data — and (3) from the IPCC climate models themselves — that feedbacks in the real climate system in response to the warming tendency from anthropogenic greenhouse gas emissions are probably negative, not positive as is now exhibited by all of the IPCC climate models.

This is a short version of a new and rather extensive paper we are now finishing up that presents all of the evidence we have gathered over the last year or so that suggests there has been a serious misinterpretation of the behavior of clouds in the climate system. This misinterpretation has led to the construction of climate models which are much too sensitive. The source of the problem is the contaminating effect that natural cloud variations (forcing) have had on the diagnosis of feedbacks. We even show clear evidence that these natural cloud fluctuations occur in the IPCC climate models.

I believe that the model-satellite intercomparisons we have made are more specific and more demanding than have ever been performed before. Until the IPCC models are as rigorously compared to the real climate system, their global warming projections can not be trusted.