Is Satellite Altimeter-based Sea Level Rise Acceleration from a Biased Water Vapor Correction?

March 7th, 2019 by Roy W. Spencer, Ph. D.

SUMMARY: Evidence is presented that an over-correction of satellite altimeter data for increasing water vapor might be at least partly responsible for the claimed “acceleration” of recent sea level rise.

UPDATE: A day after posting this, I did a rough calculation of how large the error in altimeter-based sea level rise could possibly be. The altimeter correction made for water vapor is about 6 mm in sea level height for every 1 mm increase in tropospheric water vapor. The trend in oceanic water vapor over 1993-2018 has been 0.48 mm/decade, which would require about [6.1 x 0.48=] ~3 mm/decade adjustment from increasing vapor. This can be compared to the total sea level rise over this period of 33 mm/decade. So it appears that even if the entire water vapor correction were removed, its impact on the sea level trend would reduce it by only about 10%.

I have been thinking about an issue for years that might have an impact on what many consider to be a standing disagreement between satellite altimeter estimates of sea level versus tide gauges.

Since 1993 when satellite altimeter data began to be included in sea level measurements, there has been some evidence that the satellites are measuring a more rapid rise than the in situ tide gauges are. This has led to the widespread belief that global-average sea level rise — which has existed since before humans could be blamed — is accelerating.

I have been the U.S. Science Team Leader for the Advanced Microwave Scanning Radiometer (AMSR-E) flying on NASA’s Aqua satellite. The water vapor retrievals from that instrument use algorithms similar to those used by the altimeter people.

I have a good understanding of the water vapor retrievals and the assumptions that go into them. But I have only a cursory understanding of how the altimeter measurements are affected by water vapor. I think it goes like this: as tropospheric water vapor increases, it increases the apparent path distance to the ocean surface as measured by the altimeter, which would cause a low bias in sea level if not corrected for.

What this potentially means is that *if* the oceanic water vapor trends since 1993 have been overestimated, too large of a correction would have been applied to the altimeter data, artificially exaggerating sea level trends during the satellite era.

What follows probably raises more questions that it answers. I am not an expert in satellite altimeters, I don’t know all of the altimeter publications, and this issue might have already been examined and found to be not an issue. I am merely raising a question that I still haven’t seen addressed in a few of the altimeter papers I’ve looked at.

Why Would Satellite Water Vapor Measurements be Biased?

The retrieval of total precipitable water vapor (TPW) over the oceans is generally considered to be one of the most accurate retrievals from satellite passive microwave radiometers.

Water vapor over the ocean presents a large radiometric signal at certain microwave frequencies. Basically, against a partially reflective ocean background (which is then radiometrically cold), water vapor produces brightness temperature (Tb) warming near the 22.235 GHz water vapor absorption line. When differenced with the brightness temperatures at a nearby frequency (say, 18 GHz), ocean surface roughness and cloud water effects on both frequencies roughly cancel out, leaving a pretty good signal of the total water vapor in the atmosphere.

What isn’t generally discussed, though, is that the accuracy of the water vapor retrieval depends upon the temperature, and thus vertical distribution, of the water vapor. Because the Tb measurements represent thermal emission by the water vapor, and the temperature of the water vapor can vary several tens of degrees C from the warm atmospheric boundary layer (where most vapor resides) to the cold upper troposphere (where little vapor resides), this means you could have two slightly different vertical profiles of water vapor producing different water vapor retrievals, even when the TPW in both cases was exactly the same.

The vapor retrievals, either explicitly or implicitly, assume a vertical profile of water vapor by using radiosonde (weather balloon) data from various geographic regions to provide climatological average estimates for that vertical distribution. The result is that the satellite retrievals, at least in the climatological mean over some period of time, produce very accurate water vapor estimates for warm tropical air masses and cold, high latitude air masses.

But what happens when both the tropics and the high latitudes warm? How do the vertical profiles of humidity change? To my knowledge, this is largely unknown. The retrievals used in the altimeter sea level estimates, as far as I know, assume a constant profile shape of water vapor content as the oceans have slowly warmed over recent decades.

Evidence of Spurious Trends in Satellite TPW and Sea Level Retrievals

For many years I have been concerned that the trends in TPW over the oceans have been rising faster than sea surface temperatures suggest they should be based upon an assumption of constant relative humidity (RH). I emailed my friend Frank Wentz and Remote Sensing Systems (RSS) a couple years ago asking about this, but he never responded (to be fair, sometimes I don’t respond to emails, either.)

For example, note the markedly different trends implied by the RSS water vapor retrievals versus the ERA Reanalysis in a paper published in 2018:

The upward trend in the satellite water vapor retrieval (RSS) is considerably larger than in the ERA reanalysis of all global meteorological data. If there is a spurious component of the RSS upward trend, it suggests there will also be a spurious component to the sea level rise from altimeters due to over-correction for water vapor.

Now look at the geographical distribution of sea level trends from the satellite altimeters from 1993 through 2015 (published in 2018) compared to the retrieved water vapor amounts for exactly the same period I computed from RSS Version 7 TPW data:

The geographic pattern of 23-years of sea level rise from satellite altimeter data looks similar to the pattern of water vapor increase (percent per decade), suggesting cross-talk between the water vapor correction and sea level retrieval.

There is considerably similarity to the patterns, which is evidence (though not conclusive) for remaining cross-talk between water vapor and the retrieval of sea level. (I would expect such a pattern if the upper plot was sea surface temperature, but not for the total, deep-layer warming of the oceans, which is what primarily drives the steric component of sea level rise).

Further evidence that something might be amiss in the altimeter retrievals of sea level is the fact that global-average sea level goes down during La Nina (when vapor amounts also go down) and rise during El Nino (when water vapor also rises). While some portion of this could be real, it seems unrealistic to me that as much as ~15 mm of globally-averaged sea level rise could occur in only 2 years going from La Nina to El Nino conditions (figure adapted from here) :

Especially since we know that increased atmospheric water vapor occurs during El Nino, and that extra water must come mostly from the ocean…yet the satellite altimeters suggest the oceans rise rather than fall during El Nino?

The altimeter-diagnosed rise during El Nino can’t be steric, either. As I recall (e.g. Fig. 3b here), the vertically integrated deep-ocean average temperature remains essentially unchanged during El Nino (warming in the top 100 m is matched by cooling in the next 200 m layer, globally-averaged), so the effect can’t be driven by thermal expansion.

Finally, I’d like to point out that the change in the shape of the vertical profile of water vapor that would cause this to happen is consistent with our finding of little to no tropical “hot-spot” in the tropical mid-troposphere: most of the increase in water vapor would be near the surface (and thus at a higher temperature), but less of an increase in vapor as you progress upward through the troposphere. (The hotspot in climate models is known to be correlated with more water vapor increase in the free-troposphere).

Again, I want to emphasize this is just something I’ve been mulling over for a few years. I don’t have the time to dig into it. But I hope someone else will look into the issue more fully and determine whether spurious trends in satellite water vapor retrievals might be causing spurious trends in altimeter-based sea level retrievals.


504 Responses to “Is Satellite Altimeter-based Sea Level Rise Acceleration from a Biased Water Vapor Correction?”

Toggle Trackbacks

  1. ossqss says:

    Interesting write up Dr. S. Sea level is quite a complex topic aside from the discussion you lay out above. Calculating yearly average global sea level seems almost impossible, let alone any acceleration component, impacts from ground water extraction, subsidence etc..

    Supplemental to the discussion 🙂

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=q65O3qA0-n4

    • aaron says:

      And increased retention in biosphere, aquifer replenishment, and soil moisture increase.

      http://archive.news.iupui.edu/releases/2016/02/drylands-global-greening.shtml

      https://phys.org/news/2018-01-discrepancies-satellite-global-storage.html

      GRACE shows much more water retained on land than hydrological models estimate.

    • Greg says:

      The first problem is the opaque and openly activist group doing the altimetry work at C.U Bolder.

      They now refuse to give the non “inverse barometer” corrected data. They add in a “correction” for allegedly deepening ocean basins giving sea levels which are floating phantom-like above the waves. This discrepancy gets larger every year.

      When I questioned this they told me it was that they want MSL to be and “indicator” of global warming. So they have abandoned even the pretense that it is what it claims to be : sea level.

      Even the suggestion that you can measure sea level to sub-millimeter precision from low orbit by looking at the TROUGH of the swell, is a joke. The have no ground zero data calibration, they just tweak the various model adjustments until they get an answer which fits their expectations ( or objectives ).

      I stopped taking satellite altimetry seriously as soon as I looked into how it was done , how they stitched and altered previous mission data together and found the attitiude of the group by directly communication with them.

      This is not science, it is yet more “save the world” activism.

      • Curious George says:

        How many people ever heard of a “water vapor correction”? How many other “corrections” are there? Satellite altimetry, while sound in principle, does not work with the precision claimed. The sea surface is far from flat – how do they determine the average level to a sub-millimeter accuracy?

      • barry says:

        Greg,

        Uni of Colorado,like about 5 other institutes, do sea level as a function of volume. This is how they make the product applicable to to global climate change analysis.

        It’s not nefarious, it’s the logical way of measuring change WRT to global climate. Other institutes look at different metrics. That’s fine, too. You use the data that applies to the question you’re asking.

        • steve case says:

          Uni of Colorado,like about 5 other institutes, do sea level as a function of volume.

          Bullshit! CU measures the trough of the waves on the ocean. The GIA adjustment they made in 2011 was bullshit and everyone knows it.

    • Kudos to Dr. Spencer for his many efforts to bring scientific measurements to bare on “climatology.”

      In relation to the current topic readers may find informative:

      Sea Level Rise; A Major Non-Existent Threat Exploited by Alarmists and Politicians.
      BY DR. TIM BALL · AUGUST 2, 2018

      Yes, as is the case with climate, “sea level” is both very complex and not necessarily well understood. djm

  2. Darwin Wyatt says:

    So we might be counting fog as sea level rise? Interesting the same peeps demanding UAH numbers be adjusted for orbital drift and cloud cover overlook this possibility. And assuming sea level rise is 2 mm per year instead of 3, what implication does that have on ACO2 caused warming when we know within natural climate variability sea levels were as much as 20 meters higher in the last interglacial?

  3. tomwys says:

    “Biased water vapor correction” (BWWC) represents a fascinating insight, Dr. Spencer!

    By now, most people engaged in looking at the satellite sea level problem agree that, in fact, there is a problem. After a quarter-century of satellite data analysis, three things are obvious.

    The first, on the plus side, is that satellite readings accurately reflect Real world events, such as the anheric water acquisition of Australian aquifers in the 2010-2011 period. The worldwide drop in sea levels was accurately recorded by both altimeter and tide gauge Records.

    Second, also on the plus side, is that altimeter readings from 1993 to the present, exhibit linearity, essentially over the entire period. This conforms to tide gauge readings too.

    The third, on the negative side, show satellite data Analysis basically doubling the actual sea level rate of rise over the entire span. BWWC must be looked at as a possible source of reportage that is beginning to border upon ludicrous. Coding errors attempting to reconcile radars lacking the ability (from a resolution standpoint) to make precise measurements by more than an order or two of magnitude are another possibility that needs detailed attention. Both deserve intensive investigation, and they deserve it soon.

    Your contribution to this problem is sincerely appreciated!!!

    • Nate says:

      ‘The third, on the negative side, show satellite data Analysis basically doubling the actual sea level rate of rise over the entire span.’

      How do you know that? Where do you find the ‘actual’ rate of rise?

      Measurements, including this one, are all we have to determine ‘actual’ rate of rise.

      • tomwys says:

        I have found many tide gauges in tectonically inert places on the globe – places that neither subside nor uplift, and those with greater than a 100 year record and 10 year GPS validation show a steady, linear (unchanging in rate) 1 to 1.4mm/yr non-accelerating rise. This is where you can “…find the ‘actual’ rate of rise” as you requested.

        Go to the bottom of the Media Page on the colderside.com website for the EIKE presentation in Munich this past November, for some more detail, particularly on the coding issue. Yet BWWC is a realistic alternative too to “explain” the doubling (including GIA) problem.

        PS The great Swedish oceanographer Nils Axel-Mrner has confirmed likewise!

        • Nate says:

          ‘I have found …’

          Ok, so you have found some data online, played around with it, and come to wildly different conclusions from the professionals, ie blog science.

          • wert says:

            How would *you* explain the gaping difference between open ocean measurements by satellite and tide gauges?

            The thing is, tide gauges show less rise when corrected for land motion. Are you really saying the oceans are becoming an upwards hill?

            And, what is more important, what does open ocean sea level change do? Do you get New York inundated by that? Hansen, reality check, anyone.

          • Nate says:

            I dont what youre talking about, here are slr from tide measurements which agree roughly with satellite over 2 decades:

            http://climexp.knmi.nl/getindices.cgi?WMO=CSIROData/ssh_church&STATION=global_sea_level&TYPE=i&NPERYEAR=1&[email protected]

          • barry says:

            If there are discrepancies between satellite and tide gauges that are tectonically stable, the first thing I would check is if the stable gauges are evenly spread over the globe, or if they were concentrated somewhere, such that the results could be skewed, just because sea level changes are not uniform across the globe (ie, from Coriolis effect etc).

            Do the experts have some info on regionality re stable tide gauges?

  4. Scott says:

    One possible starting point for continuing this investigation–do tide gauges show the same “La Nina dips” and “El Nino peaks” as the satellite data in the last figure?

    If “yes”, then that is evidence against your hypothesis.

    If “no”, then it is evidence for your hypothesis.

    -Scott

  5. steve case says:

    For what it’s worth

    My favorite long running tide gauges:

    Station mm/yr 1993-2018
    Brest 1.94
    Frisco 1.86
    NY 3.18
    H’lulu 1.99
    Sydny 4.01
    Frmntl 5.38

    Average 3.06

    Source:
    https://www.psmsl.org/data/obtaining/
    and
    Microsoft Excel slope function

    • Mark E. says:

      If you look at enough tidal gauge data since early 1900’s there is no evidence of acceleration, at least none that I have found on the NOAA web site. SLR has been constant and linear ranging from 1-4 mm per year depending the port. I think I trust the individual tidal gauge data over everything else.

      • Bindidon says:

        Mark E.

        “If you look at enough tidal gauge data since early 1900s there is no evidence of acceleration, at least none that I have found on the NOAA web site.”

        Well, according to CSIRO’s data, there must be some acceleration.

        Here are the trends I obtained from Excel two years ago for CSIRO data (mm/y):

        – 1880-1920: 1.31± 0.03
        – 1920-1950: 1.52 ± 0.04
        – 1950-1980: 1.50 ± 0.04
        – 1980-2010: 2.39 ± 0.04

        and

        – 1993-2013: 3.56 ± 0.06

        Look at this graph below:

        https://drive.google.com/file/d/1lWFNoWuKZu-f7yayhkEIb1Sp5u9EFkUp/view

        If there is no acceleration in a series, then the linear estimate and the 3rd order polynomial should be identical.

        I’ll process the PSML data when I have time to, in order to obtain a monthly average series of all these 1500+ stations similar to CSIRO’s, and compare both.

        • Mark E. says:

          Thanks. I assume this is averaged data. Can you list for me the individual sites which show acceleration?

          • Bindidon says:

            Mark E.

            “I assume this is averaged data.”

            Yes, but it is an average produced by CSIRO.

            “Can you list for me the individual sites which show acceleration?”

            Thus I can’t provide for such a list.

    • Bindidon says:

      steve case

      Lucky choice!

      The estimate for CSIRO’s data in 1993-2013: 3.56 mm/y.

      • Mark E. says:

        If you average individual sites with time point inconsistent data (ex. different start-stop time interval)s it is possible they are averaging apples and oranges which could show acceleration when none exists. This is why I put emphasis on individual sites, since the measurement system is not changing.

        • Bindidon says:

          Mark E.

          Sorry, this is a pseudoproblem, just like with temperatures. You have since evah min and max readings, recently avg as well.

          Conversely, using single stations as did steve moves you exactly into that maximum of uncertainty you claimed to exist in the global averaging method.

          The reason is that if you want to extract a valuable trend estimate out of your data, single points are worst, as they create time series with high deviations from the mean, what de facto increases the standard error.

          Thus instead of obtaining 1.8 +- 0.05 mm/yr, you get 1.3 +- 0.9 or the like, and you still know nothing.

          You see that perfectly when processing UAH’s grid data, and generate a monthly time series out of single grid cells vs. great areas.

          • Mark E. says:

            I see your point but I think is more than a pseudo problem since most tidal gauge sites start on different years. So if you average a site which is at 2 mm/year starting in 1910 (usually the standard error is small on these measurements) and then average a site which is at 4 mm/yr starting in 1950, then the overall graph will show acceleration when none exists at either site.

          • barry says:

            Hence the value of anomalizing all data to a common baseline.

          • Bindidon says:

            Yes, barry.

            It is the reason why UHI is by far less existent in temperature series as ‘skeptic’s pretend, and why we can safely mix data form a mountain statio n with that of one at sea.

            But as you know now, this is only a small part of what has to be done: requesting stations to have data in the reference period chosen eliminates by definition those whose data is outside of it…

            Hmmmmh.

            And for tide gauge data, there are many more problems to solve than that, dur to inherently stronger deviations.

  6. AlanF says:

    Interesting. I think to first order if the water vapour correction is correct the El Nio and and La Nia s should have zero effect. Is a variation of 15 mm on the world wide average consistent with zero? Id doubt that.

  7. Bindidon says:

    attn Roy Spencer

    Did you read this article?

    Monitoring Sea Level in the Coastal Zone with Satellite Altimetry and Tide Gauges

    https://link.springer.com/content/pdf/10.1007%2Fs10712-016-9392-0.pdf

    On page 11 (43) you may read:

    The improvements in retracking have been accompanied by equally important improvements in some of the corrections that need to be applied to altimetry data to account for atmospheric path delays and other geophysical effects.

    The two major improvements are in the correction of the path delay due to tropospheric water vapour (wet tropospheric correction, see Obligis et al. 2011) and in the tide models that are needed for all those applications where the tidal component is not part of the observed signal and need to be removed (Ray et al. 2011).

    Here we will briefly summarize the main advances in the wet tropospheric correction, while for the improvement in tidal models we refer to the comprehensive review by Stammer et al. (2014).

    Greetings from the (much too) warm Germany
    J.-P.

    • wert says:

      Interesting.

      But you know though, don’t you, that German gets cold winter weather from east and warm from Spain. So if it is much too warm, just wait for new winds.

      Note that AGW is supposed to be less than 1C and thus you would not notice it without precise, tobs corrected temperature statistics.

      • Bindidon says:

        wert

        “But you know though, dont you, that German gets cold winter weather from east and warm from Spain. So if it is much too warm, just wait for new winds.”

        Oh! Have you been frozen over the last 20 years, like the crew at Kubrick’s 2001, and now woken up by HAL?

        “Note that AGW is supposed to be less than 1C and thus you would not notice it…”

        Trends in C / decade for Germany

        1. Absolute values

        – 1880-2019: 0.10 +- 0.01
        – 1979-2019: 0.40 +- 0.26

        2. Anomalies wrt mean of 1981-2010

        – 1880-2019: 0.10 +- 0.01
        – 1979-2019: 0.36 +- 0.07

        “… without precise, tobs corrected temperature statistics.”

        TOBS bias? Good grief!

  8. DRHealy says:

    Dear Dr. Spencer: Very interesting question posed in your post. I have been checking the research that I can find regarding the prediction stated in the Charney Report, that we should be seeing an increase in the water vapor content in the upper troposphere if current global warming theory is correct. In your chart above, the data from ERA-Interim seems to show basically shows no trend from 1979 to 2015. The heritage date from radiosondes going back to 1948 showed a downward trend, but was deemed faulty. I have examined perhaps 9 relatively recent studies that appear to contradict the theory, with many of the conclusions from those studies indicating that their results were inconclusive, or that additional study with more refined techniques were needed. Many of these studies showed decreasing water vapor trends over time, particularly over land.

    It would appear that perhaps the empirical data isn’t cooperating with theory, but the powers that be don’t wish to acknowledge this problem.

    Any thoughts on this?

    Thanks for blogging and your fine work in this field.

  9. Bri says:

    do the tide gauges account for the land sinking or rising? I was just curious if those pacific island’s they always show ans victims of sea-level rise are also sinking.

  10. Mike Flynn says:

    Dr Spencer,

    Looking at SONEL might be of interest. Apart from your particular interest, data showing sea levels relative to GPS land stations adjacent to tidal gauges indicates to me the chaotic nature of 3D crustal movements, and hence relative sea levels increases here, decreases there, often relatively close.

    The claimed accuracy for sea level satellite altimetry (by some) appears to be physically impossible (as you are probably aware, even satellite orbits change with variations to the geoid, which are unpredictable.)

    The technology is incredible, but trying to measure the distance of something several hundred kilometres away, through a constantly variable stmosphere, from a constantly shifting platform, is not easy. Accuracy to within a few centimetres seems achievable, for a relatively stationary object.

    Measuring the tidally changing ocean surface (given that tides, in fact, are not nearly as predictable as some might think), to claimed averages is probably wishful thinking.

    Still, if one can get paid for one’s hobby, why not? It’s better than working for a living.

    I wish you every success in your enquires.

    Cheers.

    • Nate says:

      Mike,

      This is one of your favorite themes. Science really doesnt work. Its not capable of solving hard problems. And it doesnt make sense to you anyway. Therefore its BS.

      Except that all of the modern world proves otherwise.

      • Stephen P Anderson says:

        But you’re speaking about two different worlds. One world is where science and technology are merged with free market capitalism. The other world is where science is merged with academia and leftists. It is junk science.

      • Nate says:

        OK Stephen,

        Tell me which of these things that came from academic science would you consider ‘junk science’:

        Magnetic hard drives.

        Antibiotics.

        Nuclear fission.

        Semiconductor physics which gave us:
        Transistors, LEDs, lasers, computers, cell phones, solar power.

        Magnetic Resonance Imaging.

        Relativity which makes GPS feasible.

        Liquid fueled rockets.

        Plastics

        Weather prediction.

        etc

        • John Boland says:

          Weather prediction

        • Nate says:

          Right..

          Next time a major hurricane is predicted to hit your town in 48 h, its junk science, so ignore it.

        • Bill Hunter says:

          All the things on your list have been made useful by the combination of free market capitalism merging with science and technology, except only partially in the case of weather prediction which has mostly been advanced by NOAA in cooperation with the military. Though today many fine capitalistic organizations are popping up with “useful” weather prediction as a free market product.

          Thus far how many things can you name have been useful coming out of academic climate science? I recall predictions of an ice free arctic by 2013 that spurred a tremendous amount of investment that so far has resulted in expected outcomes, lets see there was the UK faux pas over snowless winters followed immediately by a high snowfall winter that left UK planners flatfooted and unprepared. There was the Hansen prediction of the Manhattan freeway underwater by now. Gee thats three can you come up with a couple on the other side?

          Shall we make a long list?

        • barry says:

          But the point is that all these things germinated as academic interest. This is what is being poo-pooed, in the usual stupid ignorance that we see from idiots who think that politics is the lens through which everything operates.

          • Bill Hunter says:

            Well not all germinated in academia. Academia certainly has a role to fill but the important element of what I said was the point new science becomes useful.

            Governments are not ruled out from making science useful but they aren’t particularly good at it or efficient. More than 20 years of employment in the conservation sector by far the most moving factor for the advancement of conservation is via consumers selecting it and paying extra dollars to achieve it. Politics when it moves in the direction of dictating to its citizens what is good for them more typically simply creates resistance.

            Its important to know the weakness of a committee or select group of people dictating needs to others. People are smart and will select in most cases what is good for them. Certainly drug addicts, alcoholics, and a number of other subgroups are not functional in that area but they are in the minority.

          • E. Swanson says:

            B. Hunter, As in your previous postings, your focus on “conservation” appears to refer to the ideas of Peter Huber. His prescription is similar to that of the Nature Conservancy which purchases lands to limit development and to other ideas such as putting a price on pollution and designating areas as park or wilderness lands. Those approaches depend on governments which support these concepts, but ignores the fact that governments change and then policies do as well.

            The other side of the problem is that “developing” those areas may later provide profit opportunities which the next government would decide to allow. Mining gold or other minerals and drilling for oil on government lands are much more likely as the market prices increase to reflect the scarcity of each. Afican elephants and rinos present valuable commodities in one market far from the local government. As a result, we are observing the gradual of their numbers, leading to extinction. Other species with less apparent “value” are already gone and the rate of extinction appears to be increasing.

          • Nate says:

            “Thus far how many things can you name have been useful coming out of academic climate science?”

            Well you will of course disagree, but has been very useful in making us aware of serious risks to humans and economic development.

            For example, the Midwest Climate Assessment has specifically pointed to more extreme precipitation events in that region, leading to more extreme flooding events, and the need of a better management system for whole watershed

          • Bill Hunter says:

            E. Swanson – I would not limit conservation to simple economics. Times change as you point out and values change. Conservation vs preservation is about finding a balance between preservation and use that wholly embraces all values at all extremes and fully in between. What we see too much of is proponents of one extreme or the other dominating politically. As we know elections have consequences but there are far better models than pure politics and too the victor goes the spoils. That’s so European!

            This nation is based on a populist notion of an entitlement to pursue happiness and to accomplish that each and every person’s interest has equal value. Finding solutions via an elite intelligentsia is a big step backwards. True academic freedom is a great thing as long as it doesn’t then lead to the loss of somebody else’s chances to pursue happiness. Academic freedom is incompatible with freedom when the academic point of view is elevated about that of the common person. Yes science is critical and facts derived from science needs to be considered, but that’s science not the opinion of scientists which is not science.

            The key concept in Huber’s book is the concept of what we are capable of knowing. The Roosevelt point of view was the aesthetics of the common man and how those aesthetics lead to a robust life. The Al Gore point of view is pessimistic and gives value to concepts we know nothing about. . . .like what really is “saving the world”. Save it from what? Save it from being touched by mankind in any way shape or form that isn’t perceived as beneficial by the elite class.

  11. According to an analysis by Willis Eschenbach, a somewhat regular article writer at Watts Up With That, sea level rise according to tide gauges was .76 mm/year greater in 1993-2013 than in 1972-1992. This is a counterpoint to the 2.1 mm/year increase according to Church and White (cited in a Nerem and Fasullo paper mentioned in his WUWT article, below) with satellite data used for 1993-onwards.

    https://wattsupwiththat.com/2018/12/17/inside-the-acceleration-factory/

  12. Vincent says:

    tomwys says:
    March 7, 2019 at 2:02 PM

    “The first, on the plus side, is that satellite readings accurately reflect Real world events, such as the anheric water acquisition of Australian aquifers in the 2010-2011 period. The worldwide drop in sea levels was accurately recorded by both altimeter and tide gauge Records.”

    ———————————————————

    I was quite amazed when I first came across this information. Average global sea level fell by about 7mm and didn’t resume rising for about 18 months. However, according to the following article, that was a rare event in 2010-11.
    https://phys.org/news/2013-08-global-sea-dampened-australia.html

    Nevertheless, it does give a hint as to the solution to rising sea levels, as the climate continues to warm. If all countries that experience periodic flooding were to construct dams or inland lakes to prevent future damage to homes and infrastructure and to reduce the amount of water flowing back to the sea during periods of heavy rain, then sea level rise could be stopped. The land would become more fertile, and food production would increase. It would be a win, win for everyone.

  13. Fenlander says:

    Presumably if sea levels continue to rise at 3.5mm/year in the middle of the oceans and only 1.7mm/year on average at the coasts, ships will soon need to use extra fuel to haul themselves up as they leave port, but on the plus side, they’ll be able to idle their engines and coast downhill into harbour. /sarc

  14. Aaron S says:

    This example of a correction is far from my understanding. But if I step back there is a trend where nearly every data modification favors the hypothesis of global warming. For me, corrections are most obviously biased in the sunspot number adjustments compared to isotope data for solar activity that indicate the original numbers were better, but point is- why is the bias always supporting global warming? Also tidal data are heavily impacted by other processes- is there a global data set?

    • Stephen P Anderson says:

      Aaron,
      It is because this is not a scientific endeavor with the alarmists. This is a political agenda. The left has fully infiltrated academia and science. The left is so twisted in its ideology that anything is possible. To ask if is there a global data set is pointless. The foxes are guarding the henhouse. To trust anything that is produced at this point then you’d have to question your grasp on reality.

      • Aaron S says:

        The political right has an embedded religion, Christianity. The political left has an embedded religion, a faith based secular ideology. Both require faith

        • Dan Murray says:

          But today only one compels behavior at the point of a gun.

        • Aaron S says:

          I would argue that only the left is currently blocking science based on their faith. Sure the right denies human evolution but they dont stop the research or conversations. The left on the other hand (pun intended) has totally blocked research into human variability and diversity as well as used irrational social consequences to anyone that speaks up about empirical realities against their ideology. Climate science is more subtle than biological denialism but I agree there is a systemic bias. Academics for example have selected who can play and in my experience peer review is a classic example of bias. It is easy to publish or get funding supporting agw but not for natural climate change.

          In my view we need to articulate and categorize the left’s religion more clearly so that people can keep it seperate from government and especially academics. Our society is currently endoctrinating into a religion in academia and I am not comfortable with this because it violates the constitutional law. Either they should give up their funding or remove the faith based curriculum.

          • Stephen P Anderson says:

            Funny you mention human evolution. Macro evolution is another example of junk science. It gives us birds evolving from dinosaurs and blue whales evolving from mole rats.

          • Aaron S says:

            I understand. I imagine it is difficult to imagine how the microevolutionary processes add up to macroevolutionary change over millions of years, and the role of extinction and mass extinction play in rolling the dice for life. I wish there was a way to discuss this issue in a constructive way. I fear there is not. Whales are not from a mole rate, their closest common ancestor is the hippo lineage.

            25 years ago the fossil record and the genetic methods were incomplete compared to today. Now the genetics, fossil record and taxonomic record are all aligned with modern dating methods. Over and over the theory is tested and stands up. Its a shame the critisism of biased climate science looses credibility by lumping with sincere science denial. Faith is a hell of a drug. It creates purpose, which is so much more powerful than the pleasure from drugs like cocaine. So I get it, and you are likely a good guy and productive member of society. So how about we just agree to disagree Stephen?

          • JDHuffman says:

            “Now the genetics, fossil record and taxonomic record are all aligned with modern dating methods.”

            DNA is a huge problem for evolution, not proof. The “fossil record” is a pipe dream. And radiometric dating is as close to bogus as it gets.

            “Over and over the theory is tested and stands up.”

            Countless lab experiments have been performed to create life “in a test tube”. All have failed. Millions of dollars have been spent trying to breed faster racehorses. Speeds aren’t getting any faster. Secretariat (1973) stilll holds the Kentucky Derby record.

            “Faith is a hell of a drug.”

            “Belief” in evolution takes a lot of faith.

          • Aaron S says:

            It is unfortunate to hear misinformation. As a Geologist/ with a Biology undergrad I am an avid fossil collector, especially of Intermediate fossils. There is nothing more concrete as evidence than holding the well preserved fossil of an extinct animal in my hands. It is false to state the fossil record is a pipe dream or requires faith. Regarding dating there are cases where 3 independent labs test the same material and provide the same age results, or even more personally I have seen a series of a dozen or so of volcanic ash beds layered in marine sediments sent to a lab and produce a perfect chronology whereby each bed was in the proper order. Even more astonishing is seeing highly sampling rates capture an evolutionary event of a population of forams or nano fossils. This is another way to date material. Genetics for humans is a bit of a biased field in the professional industry, but the method is solid and repeatable. The amount of Neanderthal DNA now available from multiple individuals confirms that even ancient DNA is scientifically testable and very real. Now I do agree there is uncertainty for things like genetic clocks, but even science has learned not they are hit or miss sometimes. The problem is the sceptical argument against repeated bias from the UN and IPCC and media and even academia losses credibility from lumping the two groups of creationists and climate sceptics. Regardless, my biggest fear today are from the left that are blocking the impacts of evolution to explain aspects of society, like pay gaps or SAT math scores even crime rates. So I no longer consider creationism the biggest fear, but I do wish the trend was for Christianity to be more aligned with solid science. I think the good sides of the Christian belief system would help society if credibility was higher and membership increased. I think many people fear the misalignment with science and flee the church and find the secular ideology of the left as a substitute.

          • JDHuffman says:

            A well preserved fossil of an extinct animal is concrete evidence of…a well preserved fossil of an extinct animal. Attaching more to it than that is where science stops and belief starts.

            I’m not trying to put down geology. There are some very talented geologists out there. They have found oil and gas deposits, along with precious metals, copper deposits, etc.

            There’s nothing wrong with science that produces something.

        • barry says:

          “The political right has an embedded religion, Christianity. The political left has an embedded religion, a faith based secular ideology.”

          So many errors. The “right” is associated with, but by no means defined by religiosity – that’s just the media,popular and semi-popular, throwing the connection in your face hard enough to stop you having to actual think about it.

          Atheism and agnosticism are not religions. Neither is ‘humanism’.

          I recommend checking a few dictionaries on what ‘religion’ actually means, and not relying on the absurd false equivalency promulgated by some hard-core f^ckwits.

          To whit – religion is a moral code of which the absolute authority resides in (the belief of) a supernatural entity or entities.

          • Aaron Shunk says:

            Barry,

            Your response seems a bit aggressive, but it is understandable that there is a lot of passion behind this subject- which is why we seldom discuss it. I will gladly explain my perspective just so you know what is the foundation of the statement.

            You Say: “So many errors. The right is associated with, but by no means defined by religiosity thats just the media,popular and semi-popular, throwing the connection in your face hard enough to stop you having to actual think about it.”

            Would the conservative right party exist without the religious (specifically evangelical) vote? Politics is a numbers game in reality. This is why Trump- a man with questionable morality based on Christian values aligned with Mike Pence. The political card needs that Christian and Evangelical vote to win. So I agree that the right or conservative ideals are indeed not religious, but I also stand by my statement that Christianity is embedded in the right political party because they would not win without the vote numbers.

            You say “To whit religion is a moral code of which the absolute authority resides in (the belief of) a supernatural entity or entities.”

            That seems a rather western biased definition as much of the eastern world’s religions (Buddhism, Confucianism, and Taoism) do not include a super-natural framework- and represent a very large percentage of the world’s population. Thus, I prefer the actual etymology of the word Religion: to Bind, Bond, have Reverence. Thus, a religion is a structure that binds our way of thinking. In this way other belief systems fit under a bigger umbrella, and the western bias is reduced. I think this is critical because the political left is getting away including faith based ideology that violates the constitution if it is considered a religion: “Congress shall make no law respecting an establishment of religion or prohibiting the free exercise thereof.” Much of the left ideology is not supported by empirical data and thus has drifted into the sub-set of a religion. For example, US academia is severely biased by this religious ideology, and since they get federal funding we are in essence choosing a side via funding one belief system. The issue also extends outward to laws. The only way I can see to establish a unbiased legal system is to classify the left ideology for what it is: A faith based religious belief system.

            Pages like this one drive home the point. We exclude funding for religions, but in a slight of hand openly fund faith based ideologies because they are not classified correctly.

            https://nonprofitquarterly.org/2018/05/14/faith-based-universities-path-government-funding/

  15. Dr. Strangelove says:

    Dr, Spencer,

    I posted this originally at WUWT (Jan. 25, 2019)

    I used this deep ocean temperature data to calculate thermal expansion of seawater, which is the main cause of sea level rise. My calculated sea level rise of 0.84 mm/yr is much lower than 2.9 mm/yr from satellite altimetry. https://www.star.nesdis.noaa.gov/sod/lsa/SeaLevelRise/LSA_SLR_timeseries_global.php

    ocean area = A = 3.619 E+11 m^2
    volume = V = 7.238 E+14 m^3
    coefficient of themal expansion at 10 C = o = 0.88 E-4 K^-1
    change in temperature = dT = 0.0624 K
    time interval = dt = 13 yrs

    change in volume = dV = o dT V = 3.97 E+9 m^3
    change in depth = dx = dV/A = 0.011 m = 11 mm
    trend = dx/dt = 0.84 mm/yr

    I think the altimeter data are wrong. It is physically impossible unless we attribute sea level rise to melting glaciers.

    The original Envisat altimeter data had a trend of 0.76 mm/yr before it was ALTERED. The original trend is close to my calculated 0.84 mm/yr

    Anthony Watts talked about it back in 2012
    https://wattsupwiththat.com/2012/04/12/envisats-satellite-failure-launches-mysteries/

    Jo Nova too in 2012
    http://joannenova.com.au/2012/05/man-made-sea-level-rises-are-due-to-global-adjustments/

    I think we have a case of data manipulation

    • barry says:

      I thought I owed the tax man nothing. But he said I had to pay $2300.

      Naturally, I was right, and the tax man was wrong.

  16. Entropic man says:

    Dr Strangelove

    “I think the altimeter data are wrong. It is physically impossible unless we attribute sea level rise to melting glaciers.”

    And why not?

    The consensus figures for contribution to sea level rise are 1.35mm from thermal expansion, 0.67mm from glaciers, 0.48mm from Greenland, 0.26mm from Antarctica and 0.45mm from groundwater etc.

  17. David L. Hagen says:

    Good explorations.
    One correction that may be needed is extend the Clausius-Clapeyron equation for the non-constant latent heat of vaporizatin. See:
    Koutsoyiannis D. ClausiusClapeyron equation and saturation vapour pressure: simple theory reconciled with practice. European Journal of physics. 2012 Jan 10;33(2):295.

    While the Clausius-Clapeyron equation is very important as it determines the saturation vapour pressure, in practice it is replaced by empirical, typically Magnus type, equations which are more accurate. It is shown that the reduced accuracy reflects an inconsistent assumption that the latent heat of vaporization is constant. Not only is this assumption unnecessary and excessive, but it is also contradictory to entropy maximization. Removing this assumption and using a pure entropy maximization framework we obtain a simple closed solution, which is both theoretically consistent and accurate. Our discussion and derivation are relevant to students and specialists in statistical thermophysics and in geophysical sciences, and our results are ready for practical application in physics as well as in such disciplines as hydrology, meteorology and climatology.

    https://iopscience.iop.org/article/10.1088/0143-0807/33/2/295/meta
    Docs posted at: http://www.itia.ntua.gr/en/docinfo/1184/
    Corrected postprint http://www.itia.ntua.gr/en/getfile/1184/1/documents/2012EJP_ClausiusClapeyron_corrected.pdf

    • Dr. Strangelove says:

      On the widely misunderstood entropy maximization, I posted this originally at Judith Curry’s blog (Feb. 28, 2019)

      Popular accounts of the second law of thermodynamics are quite different from the formal statement of the law. Popular accounts say entropy is always increasing. The formal statement is more restrictive. Kelvin and Clausius statements of the second law refer to heat engines and the conversion of heat to work. The second law is a generalization of the operation of heat engines. The Strangelove theorem is a more general formulation of the second law that does not use heat engines and heat conversion. It describes pure heat transfer from hot to cold matter.

      2nd law of thermodynamics (Strangelove theorem):
      Entropy decreases in heat transfer from hot to cold matter.

      Proof of Strangelove theorem

      Premise: Initial entropy (S1) is equal to final entropy (S2)
      S1 = S2
      Let:
      S1 = Sh + Sc
      Sh = (Lh + Qh)/Th Eq. 1
      Sc = (Lc + Qc)/Tc Eq. 2
      Where:
      Sh is entropy of unit mass of hot matter; Sc is entropy of unit mass of cold matter; Lh and Lc are latent heats of unit mass of hot matter and cold matter respectively; Qh and Qc are sensible heats of unit mass of hot matter and cold matter respectively; Th and Tc are temperatures of hot and cold matter respectively

      Let:
      S2 = (L + Q)/T
      Where: L is latent after heat transfer; Q is sensible heat after heat transfer; T is temperature after heat transfer
      Conservation of energy requires that the initial and final energies are equal:
      Lh + Qh + Lc + Qc = L + Q
      Rewriting the premise:
      S1 = S2
      Sh + Sc = (Lh + Qh + Lc + Qc)/T Eq. 3

      Let: dQ = heat flow; Cc = specific heat of cold matter, Ch = specific heat of hot matter
      Heat outflow from hot matter:
      dQ = Ch (Th T)
      Heat inflow to cold matter:
      dQ = Cc (T Tc)
      Heat outflow from hot matter equals heat inflow to cold matter:
      dQ = dQ
      Ch (Th T) = Cc (T Tc)
      Solving for T:
      T = (Ch Th + Cc Tc)/(Ch Cc)

      Substitute T into Equation 3:
      Sh + Sc = (Lh + Qh + Lc + Qc) / (Ch Th + Cc Tc)/(Ch Cc)
      (Sh + Sc) / (Ch Cc) = (Lh + Qh + Lc + Qc) / (Ch Th + Cc Tc) Eq. 4
      From Equations 1 and 2, we derive:
      Lh + Qh = Sh Th
      Lc + Qc = Sc Tc
      Substitute into Equation 4:
      (Sh + Sc) / (Ch Cc) = (Sh Th + Sc Tc) / (Ch Th + Cc Tc)
      (Sh + Sc) / (Sh Th + Sc Tc) = (Ch Cc) / (Ch Th + Cc Tc) Eq.5

      Since: 0 < Tc < Th
      Let: Tc = a Th
      Where: 0 < a 1
      At lower limit a = 0, the right side of equation is less than 1:
      (Ch Cc)/Ch < 1
      At upper limit a = 1, the left side of equation equals 1:
      (Sh + Sc)/(Sh + Sc) = 1
      At upper limit a = 1, the right side of equation is less than 1:
      (Ch Cc)/(Ch + Cc) (Ch – Cc) / (Ch + a Cc)
      Therefore, the premise that S1 = S2 is false because S1 > S2.This proves the Strangelove theorem that entropy decreases in heat transfer from hot to cold matter.

      2nd law of thermodynamics (Strangelove theorem) in statistical mechanics

      The Strangelove theorem is originally expressed in classical thermodynamics. It can also be expressed in statistical mechanics. In statistical mechanics, entropy (S) is given by the Boltzmann formula:
      S = k ln W
      Where: k is Boltzmann constant; ln is natural logarithm; W is number of possible microstates corresponding to a macrostate
      Strangelove theorem states that entropy decreases in heat transfer from hot to cold matter.

      The initial entropy (S1) is the sum of the entropies of hot and cold matter:
      S1 = Sh + Sc
      Where: Sh is entropy of hot matter; Sc is entropy of cold matter
      Sh = k ln (H^m)
      Sc = k ln (C^n)
      Where: H and C are number of energy states in hot and cold matter respectively; m and n are number of particles in hot and cold matter respectively
      The final entropy (S2) is the entropy of all the particles (sum of hot and cold particles) after heat transfer:
      S2 = k ln (A^(m + n))
      Where: A is number of energy states after heat transfer from hot to cold matter

      Strangelove theorem statement:
      S1 > S2
      Expressed in statistical mechanics, the theorem requires that the following conditions are satisfied:
      H, C, A, m, n are integers greater than 1
      H^m C^n = B^(m + n)
      C < B < H
      C < A < B

      I will not give a general analytical solution because it is trivial to show that numerical solutions exist that satisfy all the required conditions. Therefore, Strangelove theorem is true in statistical mechanics. This proves that my theorem is not just mathematics. It is a law of nature because it is true in thermodynamics and statistical mechanics, two established branches of physics.

      • JDHuffman says:

        Dr. Strangelove, I understand why you believe this is relevent to the post topic, and I don’t want to get any further off topic. But, your “premise” (S1 = S2) would not be true, in general. IOW, there would be many situations where it was not true. So, “disproving” an inaccurate premise would not be “proof” of anything, except the premise was wrong.

        But, I always appreciate challenges to established physics. That is one of the reasons we know valid science can be trusted. It has withstood the test of time, unlike pseudoscience, which fails miserably.

        • Dr. Strangelove says:

          You entirely miss the point. Strangelove theorem states S1 > S2
          That is what is proven in the mathematical proof. The premise S1 = S2 is just a “placeholder.” I could have started with the premise S1 > S2 and concluded the premise is true

        • Dr. Strangelove says:

          To clarify, my theorem does not disprove Clausius statement of the 2nd law. The consequence of Clausius statement:
          (cyclic) dS > = 0
          Translation: In a cyclic thermodynamic process, the change in entropy is greater than or equal to zero.
          In absolute entropy, it translates to:
          S2 > = S1
          It seems to contradict Strangelove theorem:
          S1 > S2
          But as I already explained, Clausius statement refers to heat engines. My theorem refers to pure heat transfer so it is a more general law. In my paper, I explained why entropy is increasing in heat engines.

          • JDHuffman says:

            Your equations apparently lost some minus signs, in the cut/paste process. That’s not your fault, but it makes for a fun puzzle as I try to follow your “proof”. I would need more time to work the puzzle, but I keyed on your statement: “Therefore, the premise that S1 = S2 is false because S1 > S2. This proves the Strangelove theorem that entropy decreases in heat transfer from hot to cold matter.”

            You appeared to be stating that since S1 = S2 is wrong, your “proof” is correct. I don’t agree with that logic, because I don’t agree S1 = S2, in general.

            A hot object and a cold object, in a closed system, would eventually reach the same temperature. If S1 were the entropy at the start, and S2 the entropy at the end, then S1 < S2.

          • Dr. Strangelove says:

            If you understand the proof, you would agree it is correct. Ask all the physicists you know to falsify it. No hand waving please. It is a mathematical proof. It should be easy to point out what particular equation is wrong.

          • JDHuffman says:

            Again, your “premise” (S1 = S2) is wrong. You are using your “premise” as a “given”, and trying to prove something from the “given”. A “given” has to be true, or the “proof” will be invalid.

            For example, start with a “given” that 1 = 5. It would be easy to then “prove” that 100 = 500.

            I’m not sure why you believe S1 = S2. The energy in a system is conserved between state changes, E1 = E2. But entropy is not conserved.

          • Dr. Strangelove says:

            Of course S1 = S2 is false. My theorem falsified it. But more importantly, if you understood the proof, I proved that S1 > S2 in all cases. Some equations disappeared in the cut and paste. I post it again (hoping they do not disappear)

            From Equation 5
            (Sh + Sc) / (Sh Th + Sc Tc) = (Ch – Cc) / (Ch Th + Cc Tc)
            Since: 0 < Tc < Th
            Let: Tc = a Th
            Where: 0 < a 1
            At lower limit a = 0, the right side of equation is less than 1:
            (Ch – Cc)/Ch < 1
            At upper limit a = 1, the left side of equation equals 1:
            (Sh + Sc)/(Sh + Sc) = 1
            At upper limit a = 1, the right side of equation is less than 1:
            (Ch – Cc)/(Ch + Cc) (Ch – Cc) / (Ch + a Cc)

            Therefore, S1 > S2. This proves the Strangelove theorem that entropy decreases in heat transfer from hot to cold matter.

          • Dr. Strangelove says:

            They disappeared again. (This is hopeless) I post it again removing all the symbols

            Let: Tc = a Th
            Where: a is greater than 0 and less than 1
            Substitute Tc into Equation 5
            Cancel out Th in the equation
            Left side of equation
            (Sh + Sc)/(Sh + a Sc)
            Ride side of equation
            (Ch – Cc)/(Ch + a Cc)

            Evaluate the equation at the limits of a
            At lower limit a = 0, the left side of equation is greater than 1
            At lower limit a = 0, the right side of equation is less than 1
            At upper limit a = 1, the left side of equation equals 1
            At upper limit a = 1, the right side of equation is less than 1

            Hence, at upper and lower limits and at all values of a between the limits, left side is greater than right side of equation.
            Therefore, S1 > S2. This proves the Strangelove theorem that entropy decreases in heat transfer from hot to cold matter.

          • JDHuffman says:

            That helps!

            I’m not 100% in agreement, but I see your point.

            It is interesting. Thanks for the extra effort.

          • Mike Flynn says:

            DS,

            Nope.

            “Mixing a hot parcel of a fluid with a cold one produces a parcel of intermediate temperature, in which the overall increase in entropy represents a “loss” which can never be replaced.”

            and –

            “Such systems spontaneously evolve towards thermodynamic equilibrium, the state with maximum entropy.”

            – Wikipedia.

            At the end of your transfer, both objects are at the same temperature. No temperature differential available to be utilised to do work. Maximum entropy.

            Maybe you are using a pseudoscientific definition of entropy. If not, your “proof” is bollocks. More stupidity of the Tim Folkerts type. Trying to “prove” that ice can raise the temperature of water by means of mathematics is as silly as claiming that there is a “theory of global warming”.

            Just more delusional nonsense. Keep it up.

            Cheers.

          • Dr. Strangelove says:

            Just hand waving from people who don’t understand math and physics. Obviously you don’t know the difference between Clausius statement and Strangelove theorem of the 2nd law of thermodynamics. For the benefit of people who understand math and physics, I will show the difference (For the science illiterate, sorry I cannot help you. Just memorize what you read at Wiki without understanding anything)

            Clausius statement:
            S1 < S2
            Where: S1 is initial entropy; S2 is final entropy after heat transfer
            S1 = Sh = Qh/Th
            Where: Sh is entropy of hot working fluid in heat engine; Qh and Th are heat energy and temperature of hot fluid respectively
            Qo = Qh – W
            Where: Qo is heat outflow from heat engine; W is work done by heat engine
            This equation is the conservation of energy (1st law of thermodynamics) Heat energy of the hot fluid is converted into work and the residual heat energy is the heat outflow.
            Qo = Qf + dQ
            Where: Qf is heat energy of cool fluid; dQ is heat lost to surrounding air and cooling system of engine
            S2 = Qo/Tf
            Where: Tf is temperature of cool fluid
            Combining these equations:
            Qh/Th S2
            S1 = Sh + Sc = Qh/Th + Qc/Tc
            Where: Sc is entropy of cool air and engine; Qc and Tc are heat energy and temperature of cool air and engine
            S2 = Qf/Tf + (Qc + dQ)/(Tc + dT)
            Where: dT is increase in temperature of air and engine
            The equation states that the final entropy is the entropy of cool fluid plus the entropy of surrounding air and engine after heat transfer.
            Combining these equations:
            Qh/Th + Qc/Tc > Qf/Tf + (Qc + dQ)/(Tc + dT)

            See the equations of Clausius statement and Strangelove theorem are different. My theorem includes the entropies of hot and cool matter. Clausius statement accounts only for change in entropy of hot fluid. My theorem is a more complete accounting of entropy. Clausius statement is not wrong but incomplete. It treats the working fluid as a closed thermodynamic system and nothing wrong with that.

          • Dr. Strangelove says:

            Some equations and sentences disappeared again. I will just post the last equations to show their difference.

            Clausius statement
            Qh/Th less than (Qf + dQ)/Tf

            Strangelove theorem
            Qh/Th + Qc/Tc greater than Qf/Tf + (Qc + dQ)/(Tc + dT)

    • Dr. Strangelove says:

      The symbols did not appear. I post it again

      From Equation 5
      Since: 0 < Tc (Ch – Cc) / (Ch + a Cc)
      Therefore, the premise that S1 = S2 is false because S1 > S2. This proves the Stangelove theorem that entropy decreases in heat transfer from hot to cold matter.

      • wert says:

        We don’t claim heat flows from cold to warm.

        We claim temperature difference affects the speed at which energy flows from warm to cold.

        We claim that radiation moves energy between bodies in the same temperature, but the net is zero in this case.

        We also claim the radiative properties change temperature profile ofan atmosphere, as can be observed during a cloudy day.

        • Dr. Strangelove says:

          None of that contradicts Strangelove theorem. So I guess you agree. BTW I have a disproof of the 3rd law of thermodynamics. The 3rd law was invented before quantum mechanics. It can be violated using quantum statistical mechanics.

          Many people don’t know that general relativity violates the conservation of energy (1st law of thermodynamics) But I’m not convinced general relativity has the final say because energy is conserved in quantum mechanics.

          • Please cite violation of conservation of energy in general relativity. I suspect Einstein was well aware of the laws of thermodynamics, and that he didn’t come up with a way to create or destroy energy (including mass equivalence of energy according to the most famous one of the equations of special relativity, E=mc^2).

          • Dr. Strangelove says:

            Einstein inserted the cosmological constant in his field equations. This is now interpreted as dark energy that causes the acceleration of space expansion. The violation of conservation of energy can be expressed in Newtonian mechanics as increase in BOTH potential energy and kinetic energy (conservation requires inverse proportionality between PE and KE) In general relativity, it is expressed as constant energy density coupled with increasing spatial volume (energy is being created)

            I predict energy is conserved in the unified theory of relativity and quantum mechanics. Einstein knew his theory is not the final one. He spent the last 40 years of his life searching in vain for the unified field theory.

          • Dr. Strangelove says:

            By the way, it is not just a prediction. Energy is really conserved in my Unified Theory of relativity and quantum mechanics. First, I will show how general relativity violates the conservation of energy. Friedmann equations are a solution to Einsteins field equations. It describes the expansion of space. FRW metric defines the scale factor (a) as:
            a = Ro/R
            where: Ro is radius of universe when light from distant galaxy is observed; R is radius of universe when light from distant galaxy was emitted
            In theory of relativity, space and time are a single entity called spacetime. Hence, expansion of space has a corresponding expansion of time or time dilation. Spacetime expansion is defined as:
            d = a d
            t = a t
            where: d is length or distance expansion; d is distance without expansion; t is time dilation; t is time without expansion

            In Newtonian mechanics, conservation of energy is written as:
            -PE = KE
            Where: PE is potential energy; KE is kinetic energy
            The negative sign means PE is inversely proportional to KE.
            PE = G M m/r
            KE = m v^2 = p v
            Where: G is gravitational constant; M is mass of body A; m is mass of body B; r is distance between A and B; v is velocity of B with respect to A; p is momentum of B
            Combine the three equations and call it Equation 1:
            -G M m/r = p v

            Noethers theorem states that every conservation law is associated with a mathematical symmetry. If the symmetry is broken, the conservation law is violated. I will show how spacetime expansion breaks the symmetry of Equation 1. Express velocity in terms of distance and time:
            v = d/t
            Substitute into Equation 1:
            -G M m/r = p d/t
            Since r is distance, it has a length expansion (r = a r). Write Equation 1 with spacetime expansion:
            -G M m/r = p d/t
            Substitute the spacetime expansion formulas:
            -G M m/(a r) = p a d/(a t)
            Cancel a in the equation:
            -G M m/(a r) = p d/t
            Substitute v for d/t and call this Equation 2:
            -G M m/(a r) = p v

            Now put Equation 1 and Equation 2 side by side:
            -G M m/r = p v
            -G M m/(a r) = p v
            Notice the right side of the equations looks the same. Symmetry is preserved on the right side. But the left side of the equations looks different. Symmetry is broken on the left side. This is the violation of the conservation law of energy.

            Next I will show how my Unified Theory of relativity and quantum mechanics restores the symmetry of Equation 1 and Equation 2. The scale factor (a) is related to the cosmological redshift (z):
            a = 1 + z = yo/y
            where: yo is observed wavelength of light from distant galaxy; y is emitted wavelength of light from distant galaxy
            Since y is a length, the length expansion (y) is equal to the observed wavelength:
            y = a y = yo

            De Broglie predicted the existence of matter-waves that have been confirmed by experiments. Matter-wave is the basis of the wavefunction and the Schrodinger wave equation, the foundations of quantum mechanics. Matter-wave is given by the De Broglie equation:
            y = h/p
            p = h/y
            where: y is wavelength of matter-wave; h is Planck constant; p is momentum
            Substitute p into Equation 2:
            -G M m/(a r) = (h/y) v
            Substitute y = a y to include length expansion:
            -G M m/(a r) = (h/y) v = h/(a y) v
            Cancel a in the equation:
            -G M m/r = (h/y) v
            Substitute p = h/y into the equation:
            -G M m/r = p v
            This is how Equation 2 looks like after unifying with quantum mechanics. Looks familiar?

            Now put Equation 1 and Equation 2 (with quantum mechanics) side by side:
            -G M m/r = p v
            -G M m/r = p v
            Symmetry is restored on the left side of the equations. Therefore, energy is conserved in my Unified Theory of relativity and quantum mechanics. Einstein would be pleased. I fixed his theory so it doesnt violate the conservation of energy 🙂

          • Dr. Strangelove says:

            The prime symbols disappeared. The equations should look like these:
            d’ (prime) = a d
            t’ (prime) = a t
            r’ (prime) = a r
            y’ (prime) = a y

  18. Derek Colman says:

    NOAA just released updated tidal gauge data, showing a rise of i.8 to 1.9mm per year. The satellite measure of 3.2mm is so far out from that, I suspect it is fatally flawed. The reason I say that is that anecdotal evidence from many parts of the world seem in line with the tidal gauge data. To put it simply people who work with the sea like fishermen, coastal protection engineers and so on, say they have not experienced a rise of the magnitude the satellites suggest, and these are people who have worked with the sea for far longer than satellites have existed.

    • Nate says:

      Source for that data?

      • Nate says:

        Not specific enough to go and look at it. Link to the data pls.

        • Bindidon says:

          Nate, I downloaded data from this corner below:
          https://www.psmsl.org/data/obtaining/complete.php

        • Nate says:

          Thanks. Is it true that recent trend is 1.8 mm/y?

          • Bindidon says:

            Yes, that is the trend from 1880 till 2015 if I well remember.

            But here is CSIRO’s 5-year running trend for 1883-2013:

            https://drive.google.com/file/d/1n3gyDRgvK5kbYkA1SymZfSMW5Cpw0tc4/view

            I won’t add the CSIRO 2013-2017 increment, it is more interesting for me to process the PSML data.

            In a few days I’ll write a little comment about the results.

          • Bill Hunter says:

            Looking at sealevel rise as to whether it rates any alarm is pretty much an exercise solely for worriers.

            Fact is average sealevel rise since the height of the last glacial maximum has averaged 6.5mm/year over the past 20,000 years. Getting excited about possible acceleration from 1.8mm/yr to 3.2mm/yr needs to be examined in light of “natural” climate change before trying to attribute any of it to anthropogenic causes. I suppose if it blows by 6.5mm/yr a full quarter inch a year we probably should start getting concerned. I mean isn’t that a consistent way we treat numbers we don’t know the history of (unprecedented! warming faster than evolution and adaptation etal?) Before then the only useful use seems to be the accretion of power and whether we should be oppressing the people of the world to our own personally imagined advantage.

          • barry says:

            Fact is average sealevel rise since the height of the last glacial maximum has averaged 6.5mm/year over the past 20,000 years. Getting excited about possible acceleration from 1.8mm/yr to 3.2mm/yr needs to be examined in light of natural climate change

            So if the warming globe brings our sea level rise rate to 6.5 mm/year, that’s 6.5 centimetres a decade, which is 65 cm a century.

            That puts Amsterdam underwater by the middle of next century. Tuvalu and Funafuti are gone.

            http://flood.firetree.net/

            But they’re foreign people, so who cares?

          • Bill Hunter says:

            Barry says: “So if the warming globe brings our sea level rise rate to 6.5 mm/year, that’s 6.5 centimetres a decade, which is 65 cm a century.That puts Amsterdam underwater by the middle of next century. Tuvalu and Funafuti are gone.

            But they’re foreign people, so who cares?”

            And gee thats just a part of what nature is capable of!

            The 6.5mm/yr average is a long term average. No doubt nature saw much higher rates of sealevel change over selected multi-decadal periods of time during the past 20 millennia. Just in the last millennia we saw glaciers advance and we saw them retreat suggesting the 6.5mm figure is far less than what nature has been capable of recently (in geological time frames). Since thats pretty solid science its pretty crazy to get excited about a modest rate of change. Multi-decadal variation is possibly just showing us a variation between 1.8mm/yr and 3.2mm/yr during the past century and a half and just when nature is moving us out of several hundred years of glacial accumulation where sea level was likely dropping.

            Folks actually need to digest a bit regarding man’s inherent ability to easily adapt to far higher rates of change than we are seeing right now. Simple because we are becoming more sedentary in our lives isn’t any reason to believe that’s a necessity for survival.

          • JDHuffman says:

            Sea levels are always rising. That’s the reality.

            Earth is a “water” planet. If all the land were plowed into the ocean depths, water would cover everything by well over a mile (1.6 km). Constant and continual land erosion fills the oceans. Long term, 1000s of years, more and more coastal land area will have to be protected.

            If you live in a low area near an ocean, don’t complain if you have waist-deep water in your kitchen next storm surge.

            Taxing CO2 emissions will do NOTHING to stop rising sea levels, because rising sea levels are not caused by mankind. Rising sea levels are natural and unstoppable.

            We need to stop wasting “billions and billions” on AGW nonsense, and start reclaiming/protecting coastal areas.

          • E. Swanson says:

            B Hunter wrote:

            Fact is average sealevel rise since the height of the last glacial maximum has averaged 6.5mm/year over the past 20,000 years.

            That looks like a red hereing to me. Most of the post LGM sea-level rise of some 125 meters was over and done by the beginning of the Holocene. What’s happened since was a much slower rate of rise, since the large glaciers which existed over land in the NH after the Eemian are now gone, except for that over Greenland.
            Then, Hunter segways into a political comment

            Before then the only useful use seems to be the accretion of power and whether we should be oppressing the people of the world to our own personally imagined advantage.

            Implying that the entire environmental “movement” is just a ploy for a power grab by a a small group with authoritarian goals, a standard right wing political world view. All I can say is I think you are wrong.

          • Svante says:

            Naomi Oreskes traced the idea back to cold war anti-communism.
            They had to find a new enemy when the Soviet union collapsed.
            https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Merchants_of_Doubt

            It’s based on primitive ideas about economics and free markets.

          • Bill Hunter says:

            Well technically the holocene started during the most dramatic rise in sea level. Local anthropology work on the west coast suggests that early American inhabitants 11k years ago have their coast side settlements in what is now 80meters of water. Which suggests that the past 11k years the average has been 7mm/yr. But yes most of that occurred in the early holocene. What we don’t know very well is what normal fluctuation rates of sea level rise is given that during the LIA glaciers advanced for some 400 years and have been retreating for 150 years. So if we have seen rates between 1.8 and 3.2mm/year in the last 60 some years, it was probably a lot slower or maybe even slightly declining during the LIA.

            The only point I would make is it would take some pretty comprehensive work, which I have not seen, to create any sense that current sea level is accelerating from human emissions. Its easy to stand up and declare that with sketchy data but scientists have been doing that consistently for the past 1500 plus years.

    • Bindidon says:

      Derek Colman

      “NOAA just released updated tidal gauge data, showing a rise of 1.8 to 1.9mm per year. ”

      The NOAA numbers you mention are correct, but your interpretation of them certainly is wrong.

      I lack the time to process most recent tide gauge data, but please look at CSIRO’s numbers. Trends in mm/y.

      1880-2013: 1.60

      but

      1993-2013: 3.56

      The discussion actually is the inverse! All possible people doubt about the accuracy of tide gauge data and its processing, since that data shows a substantial rise increment of 0.36 mm/y wrt satellite data.

      CSIRO source:
      http://www.cmar.csiro.au/sealevel/GMSL_SG_2011_up.html

      I’ll add the 2013-2015 interval when I have time to do.

  19. David L. Hagen says:

    There’s an even bigger challenge for tropical cyclones from lack of resolution. e.g.
    Yang S, Zou X, Ray PS. Comparison of TC Temperature and Water Vapor Climatologies between the Atlantic and Pacific Oceans from GPS RO Observations. Journal of Climate. 2018 Oct;31(20):8557-71.
    Abstract

    Tropical cyclone (TC) temperature and water vapor structures are essential atmospheric variables. In this study, global positioning system (GPS) radio occultation (RO) observations from the GPS RO mission named the Constellation Observing System for Meteorology, Ionosphere, and Climate and the Global Navigation Satellite System (GNSS) Receiver for Atmospheric Sounding on board both MetOp-A and MetOp-B satellites over the 9-yr period from 2007 to 2015 are used to generate a set of composite structures of temperature and water vapor fields within tropical depressions (TDs), tropical storms (TSs), and hurricanes (HUs) over the Atlantic Ocean and TDs, TSs, and typhoons (TYs) over the western Pacific Ocean. . . .A limitation of the present study is an inability to resolve the TC inner-core structures because of a lack of sufficient RO profiles that collocate with TCs in their inner-core regions and the relatively coarse along-track resolutions of GPS RO data.

  20. Chaamjamal says:

    Why is acceleration of SLR an issue? What does it prove?

    https://tambonthongchai.com/2019/02/20/csiroslr/

    • barry says:

      When my bath tub floods and the floor is ruined, I just lay out a few thousand bucks to renovate my bathroom. Why worry when I’ve got the money, eh?

  21. Crakar24 says:

    You know i really liked dr roy before tbis post i like him even more now. Its nice to see uncorrupted science at work.

    That said what this shows is we ie the scientists have a lot of work ahead of them u

  22. Crakar24 says:

    Damn…..anyway they still have a long way to go before they can ensure the integrity of thier data before claiming the worl

  23. Crakar24 says:

    Ok i am a little drunk….as i was saying claiming the world will end in 20xx

  24. ren says:

    Having two super blooms in two years is highly unusual. In California, super blooms happen about once in a decade in a given area, and they have been occurring less frequently with the drought.
    Top places to see the wildflower super bloom in Southern California in 2019.
    https://youtu.be/L5gJfFwvjkg

  25. ren says:

    The ice cover on the Great Lakes reached 80%.
    https://images.tinypic.pl/i/00981/9evm2joegfme.png

  26. Ken says:

    This discussion about sea level rise is a big deal.

    BC coastal communities has been told by the BC Provincial Government to be prepared for 1 – 2 meters sea level rise by 2100. My city’s downtown is on a river delta and land reclaimed from the sea. High tides are already a problem even without sea level rise … its going to cost billions to build a dike that will fail when the earthquake strikes.

    Needless to say my complaints, that sea level rise is 1 – 2 mm per year and that there has never been 1 cm per year sea level rise over a century, have gone ignored.

    I sure hope someone can get sanity to return before our civilization is destroyed by whoever it is that is feeding this crap to our governments in such a way as to preclude any sense and exercise of due diligence.

    On the other hand … if the alarmists are right … maybe I can get an exclusive gondola concession.

  27. JDHuffman says:

    Dilbert becomes a “climate scientist”.

    https://dilbert.com/strip/2019-03-10

    • Stephen P Anderson says:

      It is better to not have actual data. If the data is estimated you can create an argument for estimating it any way you want.

    • manfred says:

      Scott Adams, JDH and SPA demonstrate their understanding of science and statistics.

      • Stephen P Anderson says:

        Yes, thank you. Estimated data is always better than actual data. Climate Science has proven that. I’m a believer.

  28. Brett Keane says:

    Roy, “Take No-one’s Word For Anything”: At last I have procured a laser/IR Temperature Reader. At c.35S now in early Autumn here in New Zealand, I find cooling as one rises to Zenith, often below 0C there in blue sky. Even right next to the Sun, which reads 170-260 when pointed at, possibly overloaded.
    Clouds can be warmer than Blue sky and seem to read according to height – the droplets likely equate with the ambient T.
    Nighttime: seems like readings behave similarly but no sun of course!

    I cannot discern any “Downwelling Effect”, just the Adiabat. Would appreciate your opinion, Roy. Brett Keane, New Zealand

    • Stephen P Anderson says:

      Brett,
      So it’s is your contention that you can point an IR temperature reader up into the sky and read temperature?

    • JDHuffman says:

      Brett, the angle makes a difference. If you point the device directly overhead, you will typically get the coldest readings. I have seen temperatures below -40 C (night time, clear sky). Clouds are warm. I once found a low cloud, on a summer day, at 35 C!

      Be careful aiming too close to the Sun. It will ruin your device.

      • Stephen P Anderson says:

        So how high can the laser beam shoot?

        • Stephen P Anderson says:

          It can’t believe it could be used to more than about 50ft. or so, so how can you use it on a cloud?

          • Stephen P Anderson says:

            Well, according to the wiki article there is a laser beam. The particular one in the wiki article you referenced has an accuracy to about 20ft. So, again I ask how does it measure the temperature of a cloud?

          • Mike Flynn says:

            JDH,

            I guessed he meant the inbuilt laser which indicates the rough direction of the target.

            I suspect your cloud measurement was due to reflection from another heat source.

            No offense intended.

            Cheers.

          • JDHuffman says:

            Exactly Mike. My little IR “gun” actually has two laser beams for aiming. They’re only useful at close range. The lasers don’t affect the temperature reading.

            The ground temperature under the cloud was likely 37 C (99 F). So yeah, the surface was warming the atmosphere, as usual.

          • Nate says:

            OK, JD can’t deal. So here’s how they work:

            https://www.sensorsmag.com/components/demystifying-thermopile-ir-temp-sensors

            They use a thermopyle, which essentially measures the temperature rise or fall of an IR absorbing layer, relative to the ambient temperature of the device, and thereby, the IR flux flowing into or out of the device.

            From that flux, together with the measured ambient temperature, they use JD’s ‘bogus’ Radiative Heat Transfer (RHT) equation to find the temperature of the source.

            Notice in figure 2. the RHT equation, the ‘bogus’ one, is shown being used.

      • Nate says:

        JD, i have couple of these cool devices, and youre right, you can detect cold of clear sky and cool or warm clouds.

        But since you think the rad heat transfer eqn is bogus, just wondering how you think this device works?

        • Nate says:

          OK, JD cannot or will not refute any of this.

          So its pretty clear that JD happily uses a device that cannot possibly work, according to his version of physics.

    • E. Swanson says:

      Brett Keane, Your hand held IR thermometer can’t measure in the CO2 bands, else it’s readings of any surface would be distorted or blocked by the CO2 absorp_tion in the air between that surface and the instrument. That’s why your effort to point the thing toward the sky don’t indicate a CO2 downwelling.

      • bill hunter says:

        Swanson: Based on your argument, actually even alone, downwelling IR is a misnomer. The hand held device if tuned to CO2 frequencies would not be measuring downwelling IR it would be measuring the temperature of the CO2 where the device is. Downwelling IR is a manufactured concept whose existence is purely created by the popular CO2 “insulation” theory, but with insulation if you measure the warm side of the insulation it isn’t conduction from the cool side that you are measuring. Control the language and you control the mind.

  29. Brett Keane says:

    The laser is only the pointer. We have an old debate with Roy about the proper use of IR guns that use algorithms…..Brett
    As I said, found no downwelling effect, only adiabat.
    Also, there is an obvious, to me, vibrational KE effect on cloud steam water globules. You should see them dancing to that………. and all clouds are surrounded with up to two radii of unseen globule/WV soup. To me, Physics is just nature in action, as befits its meaning of Greek Physikos = Nature. People who toss formulae around need to forget there classrooms and work in the open air and sea. With a basic grounding in Mechanics, the real truth slowly comes. Took me too long, but at 71, it starts to sink in.

    The 1st lesson of course is always be open to correction, which is why I ask Roy Spencer, whom I really respect. Good to see other inquiring minds here too……….

    • Stephen P Anderson says:

      Brett,
      I understand the laser is just a pointer. But that’s somewhat my point. I have one of those instruments too. I don’t really understand if you point to the sky what you are measuring? You are saying that you’re measuring downwelling readiation? Do you have a link to the old debate you had with Dr. Spencer?

      • Gordon Robertson says:

        stephen…”I understand the laser is just a pointer. But that’s somewhat my point. I have one of those instruments too. I don’t really understand if you point to the sky what you are measuring?”

        You are measuring frequency, nothing more. Hand-held IR devices are calibrated in labs to convert a received frequency to a colour temperature. The units do not measure heat directly.

        If you pointed a hand-held device at boiling water then turned around and pointed it at a block of ice, if the sensor was heat-dependent it would take it a long time to cool down to the temperature of ice.

        The process happens instantaneously, however, indicating that the device responds to the frequency of EM not heat.

        If you had a thermometer that could be immersed in boiling water, then immersed in ice, the mercury would drop rapidly in the vial but not instantaneously. A hand-held IR device responds to temperature difference instantaneously.

        • Stephen P Anderson says:

          Yeah, I understand IR. I’m asking if you point it toward the sky what are you measuring? Don’t tell me the sky.

          • Svante says:

            Direct Evidence of Earths Greenhouse Effect …

          • Mike Flynn says:

            From the link –

            “And if you STILL dont see how this demonstrates the greenhouse effect, imagine what would happen if you suddenly removed all of that atmosphere and clouds: there would be a sudden increase in the rate of net IR flow from the surface of the Earth to outer space, and temperatures would drop. THAT is the greenhouse effect.”

            There is a problem. Removing the atmosphere would allow the full sunlight to reach the instrument. The temperature would rise. When the Sun’s radiation is blocked even more – during a solar eclipse, for example, the temperature drops. Increasing the amount of atmosphere obviously has the same effect – less energy reaches the surface.

            No use talking about night time – the temperature falls. No global warming at night. No “Hottest year EVAH!”

            Cheers.

          • Svante says:

            There is an asymmetry, CO2 affects the strongest output frequencies, the bulk of the input is unaffected.

          • JDHuffman says:

            Svante gets something right: “…the bulk of the input is unaffected.”

            Yes Svante, thankfully the Sun warms the planet.

            You’re learning. Keep with it.

        • Stephen P Anderson says:

          Did you read any of the discussion by Claes Johnson and Roy Spencer?

          • Stephen P Anderson says:

            By the way thanks for linking that. Must have taken awhile to find.

          • Svante says:

            You’re welcome. I did read some of it, it’s the same silly 2LOT misunderstanding that you see here all the time.

            No. 2 in the Skeptical Arguments that Don’t Hold Water:
            http://www.drroyspencer.com/2014/04/skeptical-arguments-that-dont-hold-water/

          • Stephen P Anderson says:

            I don’t think any of those are Johnson’s argument. What do you think about Murry Salby’s argument?

            https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=b1cGqL9y548

          • Svante says:

            Stephen,
            The instrumental record has been independently verified by proxies, see fig. 3:
            https://tinyurl.com/y7c37cyh

            The Berkeley Earth method handles discontinuities without human bias. They get similar results to everyone else. They found that the urban heat island effect is the opposite of what Salby says. Papers here:
            https://tinyurl.com/yywd4okj

            Salby thinks the human CO2 contribution is small, but nowadays you can see CO2 sources and sinks from space, down to point sources, see 2015-207 average in fig.2 here:
            https://tinyurl.com/y9dhm6uq

            Global daily values:
            https://tinyurl.com/yxspbbfn

            A couple of point sources:
            https://tinyurl.com/yydykn2l

            Use it to correct a global circulation model:
            https://tinyurl.com/y23tzr3v

            There is little mystery left, and Salby is wrong.

          • JDHuffman says:

            Svante states: “There is little mystery left…”

            Svante, the mystery is how can clowns be so unscientific as to believe that CO2 can “heat the planet”?

            And beyond that, they seem to be amazed that combustion of hydrocarbons produces CO2!

            Clearly you need to learn some chemistry, along with some physics.

          • Svante says:

            Glad you agree that Salby is wrong.

          • JDHuffman says:

            Svante, you try really hard to pervert reality.

            Your persistent failures must be so frustrating.

          • Svante says:

            Salby says anthropogenic CO2 is a small part of the increase, you disagreed, didn’t you?

          • JDHuffman says:

            First you implied I agreed. Then you implied I disagreed.

            Are you arguing with yourself again, Svante?

          • Svante says:

            No, I’m arguing with a bot.

          • JDHuffman says:

            Well get away from all your false religions, Svante. Learn to think for yourself.

            Then you won’t be a “bot”.

          • Bart says:

            Svante –

            “…but nowadays you can see CO2 sources and sinks from space, down to point sources, see 2015-207 average in fig.2 here:”

            No. Nowadays, you can see the distribution. This is not dispositive as to sources and sinks.

          • Svante says:

            You mean your baroque idea that CO2 congregates at the sinks?
            All you have is diffusion Bart, it moves CO2 from high to low concentration. Entropy.

          • Bart says:

            That’s really very uninformed, Svante. Water congregates in lakes. Are lakes the source of water?

          • Svante says:

            Gee. CO2 is a well mixed non condensing gas, H20 is not.

          • Bart says:

            That is immaterial.

          • Nate says:

            A diffuse gas gathering and concentrating at spots?

            Nope. Entropy.

          • Bart says:

            Right. And, this never happened:

            https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Lake_Nyos_disaster

            It’s all fluid dynamics, guys.

          • Svante says:

            Was this one of your CO2 sinks?
            Did CO2 congregate here from around the world?
            Did it go to another meeting in Beijing later?

          • Bart says:

            The question was, can a diffuse gas concentrate in spots? The answer is unquestionably yes.

            The flows are quite complicated, and where it will pool up in greater amounts is determined by many variables, including ground topology, wind patterns, and biological activity. Natural source activity spread across the entire globe can easily outweigh the input of slivers of industrial activity.

            Look at the video you posted here:

            https://tinyurl.com/yydykn2l

            He talks about the difficulty of modeling the flows at about 16 minutes in (but, beware – these video frames contain model results, not actual measurements). Note particularly his chart of photosynthesis activity at about an hour in. Then, look at the measurements of CO2 – the active regions lie right on top of each other.

            Industrial activity tends to occur in places where there is high biological activity, because those are naturally the most comfortable environments for living things, including humans and their machines. But, the coast of Western Africa is not generally considered a hotbed of industrial activity. Yet, its CO2 concentration is high. So is its photosynthesis signature.

            If you look for something with an answer already in mind, and you focus on those indicators which are consistent with that answer, you may think you have proven it true. That is how confirmation bias works. Scientists must be very careful of falling into that trap. The satellite images are consistent with alternative explanations.

          • Svante says:

            The question was, can a diffuse gas concentrate in spots? The answer is unquestionably yes.

            No, it came from higher concentration, then dissipated to lower.

            The flows are quite complicated, and where it will pool up in greater amounts is determined by many variables, including ground topology, wind patterns, and biological activity. Natural source activity spread across the entire globe can easily outweigh the input of slivers of industrial activity.

            That’s right, but high concentration means a source, low is a sink.

            He talks about the difficulty of modeling the flows at about 16 minutes in (but, beware – these video frames contain model results, not actual measurements). Note particularly his chart of photosynthesis activity at about an hour in. Then, look at the measurements of CO2 – the active regions lie right on top of each other.

            That’s right, but we know that photosynthesis is a sink.

            Industrial activity tends to occur in places where there is high biological activity, because those are naturally the most comfortable environments for living things, including humans and their machines. But, the coast of Western Africa is not generally considered a hotbed of industrial activity. Yet, its CO2 concentration is high. So is its photosynthesis signature.

            That’s right, but photosynthesis is a sink. This is consistent with deforestation and seasonal biomass burning.

            If you look for something with an answer already in mind, and you focus on those indicators which are consistent with that answer, you may think you have proven it true. That is how confirmation bias works. Scientists must be very careful of falling into that trap. The satellite images are consistent with alternative explanations.

            If you zoom in further you can attribute it to individual power plants, cities etc. There are papers that does that.
            Here’s another example (find more on Google Scholar):
            https://tinyurl.com/y3lygr49

            You need a long term average of course, because the natural flows are big.

          • Nate says:

            Bart, you are really demonstrating ignorance of thermodynamics, spec. the second law.

            Your volcano example is showing a source of CO2 producing a concentrated flow of the gas. Then this gas sinks due to its higher density.

            It NEVER gets more concentrated.

  30. Bindidon says:

    For some time now you see highly ‘scientific’ head posts here and there claiming that tide gauges data processed by the CSIRO show, for the time period of coexistence with satellite altimetry, an acceleration of sea level that is allegedly inexistent in the satellite record.

    Moreover, it is regularly claimed that the tide gauge data shows an acceleration only during the satellite era (since 1993).

    Particularly noteworthy was a contribution from Eschenbach in WUWT, in which he ranted as aggressively as unqualified against the CSIRO data.

    I had downloaded and processed both datasets two years ago (CSIRO for 1993-2013 at that time), and was quite surprised about his ‘results’.

    *
    Firstly, it is strange to pretend that the trend in satellite readings is constant over time. You just need to download the data, e.g. from

    http://sealevel.colorado.edu/files/2018_rel1/sl_ns_global.txt

    and to compute the linear estimate, in mm/year, for two periods with consecutive ends to see that this is not the case:

    1993-2013: 2.9
    1993-2017: 3.2

    Conversely, the trends for a series of periods with consecutive starts shows the like:

    1993-2017: 3.2
    1998-2017: 3.3
    2003-2017: 3.5
    2008-2017: 4.3
    2013-2017: 4.6

    If there was no acceleration, the trend evidently would keep the same for all periods.

    *
    Secondly, the same can be applied for CSIRO’s tide gauge data.:

    http://www.cmar.csiro.au/sealevel/GMSL_SG_2011_up.html

    The best is to show it with a graph:

    https://drive.google.com/file/d/1n3gyDRgvK5kbYkA1SymZfSMW5Cpw0tc4/view

    Each point on the x-axis denotes the start year, and the y value is the corresponding trend for the period between start year and end, i.e. 2013.

    It was very amusing to see that for the first time in the running trend record, a decrease in the trend (for 2003-2013) was observed, followed by a second, even stronger decrease for 2008-2013.

    To be honest, this global discussion about huge sea level rise is somewhat boring, but his tide gauge and altimetry stuff is interesting.

    It’s time to go into an evaluation of the PSML stull:

    https://www.psmsl.org/data/

    an to see if the results differ from CSIRO as much as Eschenbach pretends.

  31. Djung says:

    Thanks JD, Hillarious! That just about sums up most climate science that gets published or reported on anymore.

    How about Patrick Moores comments this morning. Climate alarmists heads are exploding everywhere today!

    D.

  32. Stephen P Anderson says:

    Are any of you member of BIRTH STRIKE? Just curious.

  33. Mike Flynn says:

    From the French (IGN France) –

    “The Earth is constantly changing shape. To be understood in context, when the motion of the Earth’s crust is observed, it must be referenced. A Terrestrial Reference frame provides a set of coordinates of some points located on the Earth’s surface. It can be used to measure plate tectonics, regional subsidence or loading .. . ”

    Relative sea level changes, even.

    Accuracy to the thickness of a human hair (0.1 mm)?

    What a joke!

    Cheers.

    • barry says:

      Accurately plot the trajectory of a probe to orbit Jupiter? Ridiculous!

      • Bill Hunter says:

        barry says:
        March 15, 2019 at 9:45 AM
        “Accurately plot the trajectory of a probe to orbit Jupiter? Ridiculous!”

        They don’t calculate it as one trajectory. Probes to Jupiter make several adjustments during the journey.

        This entire post is about accurately measuring altitudes from space and the sort of interference that occurs in doing that. Only science moron’s believe that if you find 65 different answers the correct answer is the mean of all the possible answers.

  34. Stephen P Anderson says:

    Great presentation by Heller.

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Gh-DNNIUjKU

  35. Kate says:

    here is another interesting article about climate change
    https://allatra.tv/en/article/the-global-cataclysm-is-coming

    • Stephen P Anderson says:

      The leftists want to get their Green New Deal implemented in spite of scientific evidence that there is no issue. That there is no AGW.

    • barry says:

      The ‘no AGW’ meme sure is persistent. It’s only surprising that people take it seriously in this day and age.

      I see AGW deniers in the same category as 9/11 truthers, intelligent designers, HIV-connection deniers, moon landing hoaxers and flat Earthers. They all cherry-pick the science (or make it up) to prop up a preconceived opinion.

      How long before this kind of stupidity is relegated to the 1%?

      About the same time that 1% of North Americans believe alien abductions actually happen…..

      Which side of the stupid line do YOU want to be on?

  36. ren says:

    Dr. Roy Spencer.
    Cold fronts in the south can generate tornadoes.
    https://files.tinypic.pl/i/00981/59clxzv0tgnh.png

  37. Stephen P Anderson says:

    Green New Deal, Medicare for All, tax reform, abolition of electoral college, open borders, = Ameritopia

  38. gallopingcamel says:

    The “Green New Deal” puts us back to the 1850s. Have a look at New York in 1911 when horses were still needed for transportation:
    https://youtu.be/aohXOpKtns0

    • Svante says:

      It was predicted that if traffic continued to grow, “In 50 years, every street in London will be buried under nine feet of manure”.

      https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Great_Horse_Manure_Crisis_of_1894

      • Stephen P Anderson says:

        Svante,
        More of Murry Salby.
        https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=rCya4LilBZ8&t=29s

        • Svante says:

          Thank, I hope I have time to watch it in the weekend.

          • JDHuffman says:

            Svante, just think how much time you would have if you gave up trolling.

            Who knows, you might even be able to learn some physics with all that spare time….

          • Svante says:

            Everything you attribute to others applies mainly to yourself.

          • JDHuffman says:

            I’ve already learned some physics, Svante.

            You’re WAY behind.

        • Svante says:

          Stephen P Anderson, now I’ve looked at the 2nd video.

          – 3:10 He says growth is 3x faster. No, he shows the growth rate increase. It’s a small change year on year on the addition to a large reservoar, halved by sinks.
          – 3:45 He says “exactly the same”. Look, that line is done with a ruler, it’s hitting the troffs on the left. The whole curve is bending up, it is not exactly 2.1 ppmv/yr.
          – He has a myopic view, the problem is long term. Short term is natural, long term is anthropogenic. He uses the former to determine the latter.
          – This is the longterm: https://tinyurl.com/y8kyzwsk
          – 4:05 “Fossil fuel emissions increased by a factor of 300%”. No, the derivative did.
          – 7:18 FFE resembles the trend line. Read ref. 1.
          – Confuses growth rate and growth rate increase again.
          – The handdrawn ruler line again. Comparison of derivative and a large reservoar, the former will not be clearly visible in the latter.
          – 9:17 Another handdrawn line, not true anymore.
          – 9:20 Scarce observations. No, we have global coverage now, see my other video comment.
          – 12:51 Cause and effect reversed, ruins the analysis that follow.
          – 15:33 Close to zero. No, fossil fuel was, land use was not.
          – 21:40 Alpha is not the net, the net lasts for millenia:
          https://tinyurl.com/yb65bxkq
          – 30:00 Again, this is a measure of the turnaround, not the net.
          – The following math is based on this rotten foundation.
          – 41:50 In effect, he proves that natural emissions match population growth!
          – 47:30 He contradicts himself, emissions are natural, but follows population growth.
          – 56:20 This is the surface budget fallacy, the effect is set at the TOA.
          – 58:00 Not 0.2, it’s about one degree, try modtran.
          – 1:04 Ignores other forcings, for example there might have been less aerosols during the depression, and more during WWII.
          – The other video cited C. Le Quere et al. 2013. End year still not updated in this video.
          – Read the 2018 version (ref. 1) and see fig.4. The budget imbalance goes from +2 to -2 Gt where he has his rate change. Emissions level off again in 2015.
          https://tinyurl.com/y634nevx

  39. Entropic man says:

    Stephen P Anderson

    You were asking what an IR thermometer pointed at the sky was measuring.

    This might help.

    http://www.weatherquestions.com/A_backyard_greenhouse_effect_experiment.htm

    • Stephen P Anderson says:

      Yes I think it demonstrates gross differences in the amount of down welling IR. I don’t think it is accurately measuring anything. After reading Dan Pangburn’s explanations, ideas, theories, etc., Dr Spencer’s ideas, Murry Salby I have come to the conclusion that the greenhouse effect is real but that the contribution from CO2 is very small, almost insignificant. Also, most of the CO2 increase has been due to natural emission, about 30% due to fossil fuel. Also, I believe CO2 follows temperature and not the other way around. I don’t agree with Dr. Spencer that most of the warming has been caused by humans. I believe most of the warming has been natural. I believe the amount of CO2 in the atmosphere will level off way below where alarmists believe according to Salby. Also, according to Salby temperature should continue to increase because it is in an uptrend but it will be due to natural causes and will not follow any of the IPCC models. CO2 will continue to lag temperature.

      • Entropic man says:

        Stephen P Anderson

        You are free to believe what you wish, but science is constrained by evidence.

        The existance and strength of the CO2 GHE is ca!culated mathematically, confirmed by laboratory experiment,by radiation spectra of outward and downwelling radiation andby energy budgets.

        At the bottom of the scientific pyramid supporting AGW is quantum theory. If the GHE was wrong, then QT iswrong and the tablet on which I write this could not function.

        Regrettably Salby’s hypothesis also does not fit the geological and biological evidence.

        Rather than spend hours typing, I’ll link you here.

        https://www.skepticalscience.com/Murry-Salby-CO2-rise-natural.htm

        • Stephen P Anderson says:

          E-man,
          I’ll take a look at this and give it a better look than you gave Salby’s work. Refute his math. That’s what I want to see. I’ve seen several critiques of Salby but none have refuted his math. Math is irrefutable.

          • Stephen P Anderson says:

            E-man,
            That’s a really bad critique of Salby’s work. First he pokes fun at him for misstating the current level of CO2. Has he really ever done a presentation in front of people? I have done many and will misstate something-have you? Second, he pokes fun at Salby for stating CO2’s temperature dependence then criticizes Salby because CO2 is apparently not following temperature and that neither is displaying a dependence. Does he realize he has just shot a big hole in AGW theory? Also, it is obvious he really hasn’t listened to Salby. Salby categorically states that CO2 lags temperature-not by 800 years like ice proxy data claims but by a few to several decades. You really need to do better than Cook.

          • Stephen P Anderson says:

            Also, Cook state’s that Salby is using these graphs but he doesn’t know where he got them. Salby clearly states they come from the IPCC. He is using the IPCC’s own data. Pretty lame.

        • JDHuffman says:

          E-man believes: “The existance and strength of the CO2 GHE is ca!culated mathematically, confirmed by laboratory experiment,by radiation spectra of outward and downwelling radiation and by energy budgets.”

          E-man all of that nonsense has been diligently debunked. If you haven’t seen the debunking, or have closed your eyes to it, feel free to present your strongest evidence here. Many of us love to squash pseudoscience.

          • Stephen P Anderson says:

            E-man’s italicized statement to me is a denial of real science. You just have to ask him one question: Then why can’t anyone create a model that forecasts temperature? I think about 110 models have been created. Not one has any predictive value. Also, I’d really like to explore this quantum theory is the underpinning of GHE with him. I’d like to see the math.

        • Bart says:

          The SS article is pitiful.

          FTA: “In other words the CO2 must be coming from a source external to the fast carbon cycle.”

          Pas du tout. No matter the source, both oceans and atmosphere move together, as a result of Henry’s law. It says nothing for attribution of the source.

          These are the same clowns who for years promulgated the awful “mass balance” argument as “proof” of human attribution. They do not understand feedback systems.

      • bdgwx says:

        CO2 is in both a feedback and forcing relationship with the temperature. It responds to a temperature change and it catalyzes temperature changes. If some other catalyzing agent causes the initial temperature change then CO2 will appear to lag the temperature change despite it providing most of the later forcing in many cases once the initial catalyzing agent goes dormant. But, if a substantial and sudden pulse of CO2 were to occur then it would be the initial catalyzing agent itself and thus lead the temperature change. As Shaken et. al. reported it is often the case that both happen with CO2 leading in the NH and lagging in the SH.

        • JDHuffman says:

          bdgwx, you have not kept up on your reading.

          CO2 is not a heat source. CO2 is not insulation. CO2 cannot heat the planet.

          Refer to the latest study by Reality, et al., 2019.

  40. Entropic man says:

    S P A

    This is annoying. I am trying to answer yourquestions but the site wont allow it.

    Hoe about moving to an alternative venue such as Climate etc?

  41. Stephen P Anderson says:

    That’s Curry’s blog. Not a forum there is there? No hurry. I’ll wait.

  42. Entropic man says:

    Models vary because each run has values for unpredictable values randomised or set to suit your research.

    The ensemble of 180 odd published runs gives the range of probable outcomes, but their average does not project real temperatures.

    Only models which match the observed values for those variables accurately project observed temperatures.

    • Mike Flynn says:

      EM,

      Complete nonsense. As even the IPCC admits, ” . . . the long-term prediction of future climate states is not possible.”

      You might be unaware that a chaotic system produces completely different outcomes given identical inputs. Once again, from the IPCC “In climate research and modelling, we should recognise that we are dealing with a coupled non-linear chaotic system, . . .”

      Sad but true. At least the IPCC seems to grudgingly accept reality in this regard, unlike yourself.

      You simply have no conception of what chaos is, and how it operates.

      Cheers.

    • Stephen P Anderson says:

      That’s not science E-man. If your math doesn’t match real world then your theory is wrong.

      • Stephen P Anderson says:

        Look at Salby’s math. It matches real world. CO2 is caused by temperature, not the other way around.

        • Entropic man says:

          S a P

          ” CO2 is caused by temperature, not the other way around.”

          It is a lot more complex than that.

          First a lesson in logic, called the Black Swan fallacy.

          The argument goes

          This swan is white.

          Therefore all swans are white.

          To refute that argument all you have to do is to demonstrate the existance of a black swan.

          https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Black_swan

          • Entropic man says:

            Are you familiar with the concepts of forcing and feedback?

            A forcing is an externally driven change intheclimate system which causes a change in global temperature.

            A feedback is an internal response by the climate system which amplifies or damps out forcing.

            The white swan is “CO2 follows temperature” and in many cases it is correct.

            For example, at thestart of the Holocene changes in thEarth’s orbit increased the amount of radiation reaching the high Northern latitudes. This was the equivalent of 1.2C warming.
            This produced a feedback. CO2 released from permafrost and the ocean raised levels from 200ppm to 28ppm. This produced additional warming of 3.8C. hence the total warming of 5C. In this case temperature is the forcing and CO2 is the feedback.

            I’m quite happy to agree with Salby on early Holocene warming , though you probably do not.

            BUT. The black swans are Snowball Earths, the Permean extinction, the PETM and the 20th century. In all these cases a change in CO2 was the forcing and temperature was the feedback.

            Salby and sceptics ignore these examples, which render his case invalid.

          • JDHuffman says:

            E-man, topics like ice ages, snowball Earth, and PETM are all in the category of “soft science”. Soft science is too often a mix of actual science and “consensus”. And consensus is too often affected by hidden agenda–quest for funding, personal (religious and political) beliefs, etc. Just in the last 50 years there have been numerous changes in the “consensus”, as different groups try to guess at the past. A good example is the theory about how the Moon got here. There are currently at least 4 different guesses, but none hold up.

            “Soft science” is easily corrupted, and then becomes “pseudoscience”. It’s “pseudoscience” when the established laws of physics are broken.

            “Hard science” is predictable, repeatable, demonstrable, and verifiable. Often the “laws” have valid proofs and a long history of empirical support. To qualify as a “law”, there cannot be even ONE “black swan”.

            AGW is most definitely “soft science”. It is driven by agendas. The “hard science” of AGW is Earth’s energy budget, involving radiative heat transfer, and thermodynamics. The energy budget foisted by the IPCC and Institutionalized Pseudoscience, is blatant pseudoscience.

            That’s why I asked you for the “strongest evidence” you have for AGW/GHE. You didn’t actually answer my request, but if you did it would be with links to “soft-science papers”. There is NO hard-science proving AGW/GHE.

            AGW/GHE is pseudoscience, it ain’t science.

          • Stephen P Anderson says:

            E-man,
            I know that’s the party line but you have to be able to show some mathematics that supports the theory. Can we take this one step at a time? Have you looked at Salby’s math?

          • Stephen P Anderson says:

            E-man,
            CO2 emission must obey the Law of Conservation. Yes or No?

          • Stephen P Anderson says:

            E-man,
            Is CO2 more soluble or less soluble as the temperature of water increases?

          • Mike Flynn says:

            The ever reliable pseudoscientific Entropic Man wrote –

            “Are you familiar with the concepts of forcing and feedback?

            A forcing is an externally driven change in the climate system which causes a change in global temperature.

            A feedback is an internal response by the climate system which amplifies or damps out forcing.”

            Of course, this is nonsensical garbage. Climatological jargon, with no relation to reality. The surface gets hotter when exposed to more sunlight, cools when exposed to less. No need for science jargon of the climatological variety at all.

            Waffling on about black swans just shows how badly EM’s mad suppositions lack sound scientific support. The exception does not prove the rule – otherwise it is not a rule at all.

            In spite of four and a half billion years of sunlight, and as many swans of various colours you wish to involve, the surface has definitely cooled. Maybe EM and his pack of bumbling buffoons ascribe the cooling to a very, very large Black Swan? The exceptionally gullible members of the pseudoscientific climatological community will believe anything, by the look of things.

            They are probably thick enough to believe that Gavin Schmidt is a world renowned climate scientist, (rather than an undistinguished mathematician), or that Michael Mann is a Nobel Prize winner!

            Still no miraculous heating properties for CO2. Still no testable GHE hypothesis involving CO2.

            So sad, too bad.

            Cheers.

  43. ren says:

    Within 24 hours it will be a large drop in temperature in the Northeast US.
    https://files.tinypic.pl/i/00981/gr1sse2nky67.png

  44. Mike Flynn says:

    Barry wrote –

    “Accurately plot the trajectory of a probe to orbit Jupiter? Ridiculous!”

    If you say so, Barry, if you say so.

    Cheers.

  45. Mike Flynn says:

    Svante wrote (trying to explain the mythical GHE, and CO2’s supposed magical properties) –

    “There is an asymmetry, CO2 affects the strongest output frequencies, the bulk of the input is unaffected.”

    More meaningless climatological nonsensical jargon.

    The surface cools at night, in the absence of sunlight. So much for asymmetrical heating, or similar nonsense. Likewise, the earth has cooled for four and a half billion years. A testable GHE hypothesis would need to include these facts – which is probably why there isn’t one.

    Cheers.

  46. Entropic man says:

    JDHuffman

    “I asked you for the strongest evidence you have for AGW/GHE. You didnt actually answer my request,”

    I tried, but this site won’t let me discuss it. Can you suggest a neutral venue where we can discuss r*a*d*i*a*t*i*v*e physics.

    S A G

    Conservation of CO2. Depends on your time scale.

    https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Carbon_cycle#/media/File%3ACarbon_cycle.jpg

    On a historical timescale the carbon cycle is closed.

    On a geological timescale weathering and subduction are removing carbon from the system faster than vulcanism is replenishing it.

    “Is CO2 more soluble or less soluble as the temperature of water increases?”

    Too simple a question.

    The amount of CO2 dissolved in the oceans is a function of Henry’s Law.

    As the oceans warm their ability to dissolve CO2 decreases. As the concentration of CO2 in the atmosphere increases the ability of the oceans to dissolve CO2 increases.

    At present the latter is the stronger effect and the amount of dissolved CO2 in the ocean is increasing.( which incidentally is the opposite of Salby’s hypothesis).

    • JDHuffman says:

      E-man responds: “I tried, but this site won’t let me discuss it. Can you suggest a neutral venue where we can discuss r*a*d*i*a*t*i*v*e physics.”

      This is a neutral venue, E-man. Dr. Spencer even allows pseudoscience, if you don’t get too far out there.

      You implied upthread that you were certain CO2 could heat the planet. I asked for your “strongest evidence”.

      Go for it.

      • Entropic man says:

        I’ve been trying. Any posts containing technical vocabulary are not accepted.

        Try it yourself. Critique the consensus version of the greenhouse effect using the proper vocabulary and see what happens. Remember to keep copies as you go, soyoucantweak them until one works.

        • JDHuffman says:

          “radiative” works.

          Watch out for any “d” followed by “c”. That would require something in the middle such as “d*c”, or “d0c”. Something else that won’t work is absorp*tion, with an “*”.

          I’m not aware of any other problems. So don’t try to back out. If you are completely convinced that AGW/GHE is valid, state your best evidence, in your own words.

          • E. Swanson says:

            Huffingman/DRsEMT wrote “Im not aware of any other problems.”

            That’s because you’ve never tried to write a post with “absorp_tion” and stopped using the handle ge_r_an.

          • JDHuffman says:

            Swanson, have you given up trying to support your bogus “experiment”?

          • E. Swanson says:

            Huffingboy, Have you given up posting using two (at least) names yet?

          • JDHuffman says:

            Yup, it appears you have abandoned your bogus “experiment” and are now a full time troll.

            There’s not really that much change, is there?

    • Stephen P Anderson says:

      E-man,

      “The amount of CO2 dissolved in the oceans is a function of Henry’s Law.”

      So that is your contention? That the CO2 dissolved in the oceans comes from the atmosphere?

      What is alkalinity?

      • Stephen P Anderson says:

        E-man,

        If you had a two liter bottle of soda and left the cap on it but started heating it what would happen? Then if it cooled down what would happen?

    • Mike Flynn says:

      EM,

      None of what you said has anything to do with “. . .evidence you have for AGW/GHE.”, does it?

      Just more obscurantist waffling about irrelevancies.

      Obviously, increasing the amount of CO2 between a thermometer and a heat source reduces the amount of energy reaching the thermometer, thus lowering the temperature. As Tyndall found, some gases are so effective at this that even additionally interposing a brass plate between the heat source and the thermometer made no further reduction to the radiation being allowed through.

      All your implications that additional CO2 will result in the surface becoming hotter are rubbish.

      You have provided evidence of your scientific illiteracy, but little else.

      Cheers.

      • Stephen P Anderson says:

        My point is the planet and the ocean are net emitters of CO2. To obscure that fact by quoting Henry’s Law of partial pressures is trying to obfuscate the point. Henry’s Law states that the amount of a gas in a liquid will be in proportion to its partial pressure. As the temperature of the planet and ocean warm gases will be less soluble in the ocean. The gases in the ocean will also be in equilibrium with the gases in the atmosphere. According to Henry’s Law the concentration of the gases in the ocean will be in proportion to their partial pressures in the atmosphere.

      • Dan Pangburn says:

        Mike,, The observation that CO2, in spite of being a ghg as demonstrated in the lab, has little, if any, effect on climate actually depends on a phenomenon (thermalization) which contributes to the GHE effect.

        • Stephen P Anderson says:

          If God had designed a non resilient system like the alarmists believe he did then life on Earth would have been gone long ago.

        • Bart says:

          That is the key.

        • Svante says:

          Laudato Si of the Holy Father Francis on Care for our Common Home.

          “Never have we so hurt and mistreated our common home as we have in the last two hundred years. Yet we are called to be instruments of God our Father, so that our planet might be what he desired when he created it and correspond with his plan for peace, beauty and fullness.”

          https://tinyurl.com/o6sowft

        • Mike Flynn says:

          Dan,

          Here is one definition of a GHG –

          “A greenhouse gas is a gas that absorbs and emits radiant energy within the thermal infrared range.”

          Unfortunately, this definition applies to all gases. All gases can be warmed, all gases can cool.

          Wikipedia fosters nonsense, albeit unwittingly, I suppose –

          “The balance between absorbed and emitted infrared radiation has a critical effect on Earth’s climate.” sounds very sciency, but is completely devoid of information.

          The definition of a GHG is meaningless. Demonstrating in a laboratory that gases (all) can be warmed by interacting with radiation, and will cool by emitting radiation (infrared of course, if below temperatures which result in visible light) if allowed to do so, has no particular relation to any particular gas.

          Likewise, thermalisation sounds sciency, but imparts no nformation. From Wikipedia again –

          “In physics, thermalization (in Commonwealth English thermalisation) is the process of physical bodies reaching thermal equilibrium through mutual interaction. In general the natural tendency of a system is towards a state of equipartition of energy and uniform temperature that maximizes the system’s entropy. Thermalization, thermal equilibrium, and temperature are therefore important fundamental concepts within statistical physics, statistical mechanics, and thermodynamics; all of which are a basis for many other specific fields of scientific understanding and engineering application.”

          No mention of GHGs, climate, GHE or anything similar. Good luck with trying to come up with a testable GHE hypothesis involving GHGs and thermalisation. CO2 heats nothing. The GHE is specious pseudoscientific nonsense.

          Cheers.

          • Dan Pangburn says:

            MF,, I wonder how you arrived at the correct conclusion, that CO2 has little if any effect on climate, while apparently you have so little engineering/science skill and stubbornly resist acquiring any. None of the quotes in your post at http://www.drroyspencer.com/2019/03/is-satellite-altimeter-based-sea-level-rise-acceleration-from-a-biased-water-vapor-correction/#comment-345827 is nonsense to those of us who understand this stuff.

          • Mike Flynn says:

            Dan,

            One thing I quoted –

            “The balance between absorbed and emitted infrared radiation has a critical effect on Earth’s climate.”

            You apparently claim to understand “this stuff.”

            You can’t even usefully define what the “critical effect” means, let alone how “the balance” affects it in any quantifiable way.

            Just impressively sciencey sounding nonsense – totally devoid of useful meaning.

            Would it be better for more or less infrared radiation to be absorbed? What would be the quantifiable effect of a bigger balance be? You haven’t really got a clue, have you?

            You might as well not understand “this stuff”, if you can’t even come up with any useful results from your “understanding”. Maybe you could tell me why a thermometer should respond to reduced radiation by becoming hotter? I tend to think that thermometers respond positively to increased temperatures, but your “understanding” may well be superior to mine.

            Or maybe you can’t actually express your “understanding” in scientific terms. Just like pseudoscientific climatologists, perhaps?

            Cheers.

          • Dan Pangburn says:

            Thermalization in this context is defined in Section 4 of my analysis as ,,The process of [molecules] absorbing photons and sharing the absorbed energy with other molecules is thermalization.,,

    • Bart says:

      It is not the opposite of Salby’s hypothesis, it is part and parcel of it. No matter the source of excess CO2, both surface oceans and atmosphere will see an increase.

      Furthermore, on an historical timescale, the carbon cycle is not closed. From the surface system, there is continuous input from the depths of the oceans, which is in long term circulation, and continuous output back to those depths. Any change to the dynamics of that circulation results in long term trends in the surface system.

      • Bart says:

        Further to the point, given that it is not a closed system, there is no “Conservation of CO2”. This is the mistake made by those who promulgate the ridiculously bad “mass balance” argument.

        • Stephen P Anderson says:

          “Further to the point, given that it is not a closed system, there is no “Conservation of CO2”. This is the mistake made by those who promulgate the ridiculously bad “mass balance” argument.”

          How is it not a closed system?

          • Bart says:

            I explained that in the previous post.

            You do realize I am on your side here, don’t you? Don’t assume. Read carefully.

  47. Carbon500 says:

    Given the earlier correspondence, I have to try and type in the word ‘radiative’ to see what happens.
    Here goes: radiative
    Perhaps Radiative
    Maybe upper case: RADIATIVE
    radiative
    Let’s see what happens with another, related, word:
    radiation

  48. Carbon500 says:

    Why I wonder are some people reporting problems with the word ‘radiative’?
    Is it perhaps an Apple Mac/PC information exchange issue?

  49. Mark E, says:

    I’ve checked the NOAA.gov web for tidal gauge trend history and can’t find one port in the US which shows acceleration since early 1900’s. . There are linear trend differences based on differences in subsidence, but no acceleration for any single port. If that is the case, how can there be any acceleration on the average curve? Doesn’t make sense.

    • Bindidon says:

      Mark E.

      “I’ve checked the NOAA.gov web for tidal gauge trend history and can’t find one port in the US which shows acceleration since early 1900’s.”

      This is a typical expression of what I call ‘americanocentrism’.

      Mark E, just like CONUS’s surface isn’t much more than 5 % of Earth’s, US’ coast line is no more than a little bit of the sum of all coast lines on Earth.

      Thus, if you want to detect any acceleration – provided it exists – then you MUST average the Globe’s gauge data, and build an estimate for that data.

      And unless you give us a scientific proof of Church & White being ‘plain wrong’, as Tamino uses to say, you must live with their evaluation, which tells you this:

      https://drive.google.com/file/d/1n3gyDRgvK5kbYkA1SymZfSMW5Cpw0tc4/view

      I hope you agree with me that, if there was globally no acceleration of sea level rise, then the running trend plot would look like a straight line, wouldn’t it?

      The same holds for satellite altimetry, though with clearly damped behavior:

      1993-2013: 2.8 mm/yr
      1993-2017: 3.2 mm/yr

      What do you understand by acceleration?

      Please don’t ask me for its origin: I’m the wrong person to ask.

      • Carbon500 says:

        Binidon – Mark E commented:
        ‘I’ve checked the NOAA.gov web for tidal gauge trend history and can’t find one port in the US which shows acceleration since early 1900’s. There are linear trend differences based on differences in subsidence, but no acceleration for any single port. If that is the case, how can there be any acceleration on the average curve? Doesn’t make sense.’
        Your reply was that this ‘isn’t global.’
        Both comments seem reasonable enough.
        However, looking at it all from a practical point of view, if no port in the US shows acceleration since the early 1900s – who cares about all the scary stories?
        The alleged sea level rises about which so much argument takes places don’t in reality make a scrap of difference to our lives.
        We’re talking about measurement claims for global sea level changes to within a fraction of a millimetre – nonsense in the real world.
        Where on the planet is there a port where millimetre changes in water level have made any difference whatsoever?

          • Carbon500 says:

            EM – leaving aside the shock-horror climate change picture of a raging sea (what a surprise), it says this in the article:
            ‘Sea levels are rising everywhere, but Norfolk has it worse. The land, pushed up by glaciers to the north thousands of years ago, is now sinking as much as an inch-and-a-half per decade. Scientists also believe that a slowing Gulf Stream is causing seas to rise faster along the Mid-Atlantic coast.’
            A far more realistic cause based on real-world observation than attributing any changes to a few molecules extra of CO2 in the atmosphere, don’t you think?

          • Entropic man says:

            Why is the Gulf Stream slowing?

          • JDHuffman says:

            E-man, why is your desperation growing?

        • Bindidon says:

          Carbon500

          “However, looking at it all from a practical point of view, if no port in the US shows acceleration since the early 1900s…”

          1. Did you overlook my words:

          “This is a typical expression of what I call ‘americanocentrism’.”

          You don’t seem to understand why I wrote that. I’m busy actually with this PMSL data stuff, and in one or two weeks I will present here a graph showing the sorted sequence of all tide gauge trends.

          Maybe that might help you…

          2. “… who cares about all the scary stories?”

          Firstly, “scary” is your wording here. I’m not interested in presenting anything the like.

          Secondly, you seem to ignore or understimate the problem of people whose job is to care about things like sea level: insurances, and above all reinsurances.

          By accident, I had some years ago the opportunity to meet a woman working in a big reinsurance company, where she led a project for climate-related insurance and reinsurance cost increases.

          I was surprised to detect that she didn’t rely so much on IPCC blah blah, but did rather on scientific publications, e.g. – yes yes – that of Church & White (2011) , what she digested by far deeper as I would ever be able to: she had a terrifying staistics and math knowledge.

          Such people, Carbon500, care quite a lot about what changes around us.

          Simply because their estimates about all that influe on their companies’ strategy for the two or three decades coming.

          • Carbon500 says:

            Binidon: coastal changes are nothing new. Take for example some of the UK’s coastline:
            https://urbanrim.org.uk/hotspots.htm
            If you read the above, it’s an interesting factual account of changes in the county of Yorkshire, and the supposed ‘climate change’ beloved of the scaremongers has got nothing to do with it.
            It seems that everywhere you look these days, it’s due to ‘climate change’ – absolute nonsense. Look for recognised causes of changes in sea level before invoking the nebulous notion of ‘climate change.’
            The Earth isn’t static, and never has been.

  50. Entropic man says:

    Now try absorbtion

  51. Stephen P Anderson says:

    “Furthermore, on an historical timescale, the carbon cycle is not closed. From the surface system, there is continuous input from the depths of the oceans, which is in long term circulation, and continuous output back to those depths. Any change to the dynamics of that circulation results in long term trends in the surface system.”

    This is gobbledygook.

  52. Stephen P Anderson says:

    dr/dt= E-A

    Yes or No?

  53. Stephen P Anderson says:

    Bart,
    Is the Earth’s climate a closed system? Yes or No?

    • Entropic man says:

      Open

      • Stephen P Anderson says:

        Wow! You should submit your findings to the Nobel committee and the rest of us.

        • Stephen P Anderson says:

          Have you ever called someone a denier?

          • Stephen P Anderson says:

            By the way I’ve just started reading “Physics of the Atmosphere and Climate”,2012. You can order it from Amazon. The guy is no intellectual lightweight. You’re going to have trouble trying to refute his math. I’ve watched about a half dozen of his presentations. He covers your question in one of them. It might take me a couple days to find maybe.

  54. Entropic man says:

    Where does Salby explain why CO2 continued to increase during your pause?

    • Stephen P Anderson says:

      I’ll find it for you. There is a lag. He believes temperature is going to continue up. It is in an uptrend. Why? Probably some natural cause.

    • Bart says:

      That shows you do not know Salby’s argument at all. The argument is that the rate of change of atmospheric CO2 is proportional to appropriately baselined temperature. Whether temperature anomaly is increasing or decreasing, if it is above the baseline, CO2 is increasing. Only when temperature anomaly declines below the baseline does CO2 start decreasing.

      • Stephen P Anderson says:

        Yes, I agree completely with what you just said. Not sure what I don’t understand. I’m sure there are things I still don’t understand. I just received his textbook and started reading. It will take me more time to understand it all. Fascinating subject. But atmospheric CO2 is conserved. I don’t see why that is controversial.

  55. Stephen P Anderson says:

    nm

  56. Stephen P Anderson says:

    By the way even if temperature leveled off as it apparently has, there is still anthropogenic emission.

  57. Stephen P Anderson says:

    E-man,

    Start watching at time 9:30. CO2 evolution obeys the time integral of temperature. CO2 lags temperature by a quater cycle. If he is correct and temperature has leveled we should see CO2 accumulation in the atmosphere start to slow. Be interesting to see this June’s CO2 level.

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=HeCqcKYj9Oc&t=2531s

    • Bart says:

      And, it has. Since the onset of the “pause”, CO2 concentration has been rising essentially linearly, whereas during the time temperature was rising steadily, it was increasing more or less quadratically.

      During the time it has been increasing approximately linearly (roughly constant rate of change), emissions have been accelerating:

      http://oi63.tinypic.com/11gniqg.jpg

      It is really very clear: we are not in the driver’s seat as far as CO2 concentration is concerned.

      • Stephen P Anderson says:

        OK, we agree.

      • Entropic man says:

        Thank you. Next question.

        Why are the amount of CO2 in the atmosphere and the ocean both increasing?

        https://www.co2.earth/carbon-in-the-ocean

        If, as Salby suggests, the increase in atmospheric CO2 is due to reduced solubility of CO2 in the warming ocean, should’nt the concentration of CO2 in the ocean be decreasing and the pH increasing?

        • Stephen P Anderson says:

          Salby doesn’t talk about solubility-that was my interpretation. He talks about observation and that CO2 emission is going up at northern lattitudes-field measurements. He focuses on the law of conservation and the atmospheric CO2 budget and observed data. My answer not Salby’s would be because of Henry’s Law. The partial pressure of CO2 is going up although ever so slightly so it should be in equilibrium in the liquid phase in proportion to the partial pressure in the gas phase. Increasing CO2 in the atmosphere should lower ocean pH very little because it is buffered by bicarbonate in the sea water. Carbonic acid is a weak acid.

          • Stephen P Anderson says:

            If my above statement wasn’t true ocean life would have been dead long ago when CO2 was 3000ppm. The Earth can handle a lot higher levels of CO2 and plants would relish it. I believe CO2 in the 1000-2000ppm range would be optimum.

          • Entropic man says:

            Buffering by bicarbonate? I think not.

            This is the chemistry which takes place when CO2 dissolves in water.

            When CO2 dissolves in water it forms carbonic acid.

            CO2 + H2O = H2CO3

            This decomposes to bicarbonate and hydrogen

            H2CO3 = HCO3- + H+

            Bicarbonate decomposes to carbonate and more hydrogen.

            HCO3- = CO3– + H+

            These are equilibrium reactions. When conditions favour the uptake of CO2 by the ocean the equilibrium shifts towards carbonate and hydrogen. This allows the oceans to store more CO2, but decreases the pH.

            When conditions favour release of CO2 into the atmosphere the equilibrium shifts back towards CO2. H+ ions are recombined into water molecules and pH increases.

          • Entropic man says:

            “If my above statement wasnt true ocean life would have been dead long ago when CO2 was 3000ppm. ”

            It has happened before.

            Research Canfield Oceans.

            https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Canfield_ocean

            https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/PermianTriassic_extinction_event

          • Stephen P Anderson says:

            You’re thinking is a little one dimensional. Natural waters are alkaline solutions including seawater. When CO2 increases in the water it is in equilibrium with bicarbonate. Carbonic acid has a pretty high pKa. Both the CO2 and bicarbonate would be increasing but the Ka is small so the pH would change little. It has been awhile since I’ve had Chemistry 101 but I think I’m correct.

        • Bart says:

          It is due to sustained influx which is impeded from efflux by the rising temperature.

          Same principle as the GHE – you have a sustained influx of energy from the Sun. If you impede it from release to space, then all things being equal, you get a temperature rise.

          Here, all things being equal, you get a CO2 rise within the surface system.

  58. Entropic man says:

    S A G

    Of course the climate systemis open. Energy flows into the system from the Sun, moves around the system and then radiates to space.

    CO2 enters the atmosphere by vulcanism from the mantle, cycles through the biosphere for a while, becomes ocean floor sediments and is subducted back into the mantle.

    In the long term the amount of CO2 in the system is decreasing because subduction is outpacing vulcanism.

    https://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/7/76/Phanerozoic_Carbon_Dioxide.png

  59. Svante says:

    Stephen P Anderson, I’ve seen your videos now:
    https://tinyurl.com/y3v9z44c
    https://tinyurl.com/yycwtjjy

    I really don’t understand how someone with his credentials can completely ignore observations and make such basic mistakes.
    https://tinyurl.com/y33ghnh2

  60. Stephen P Anderson says:

    Svante,

    Start watching at 9:30 and refute it.

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=HeCqcKYj9Oc&t=2531s

    • Stephen P Anderson says:

      Also, start watching at 1 hour. Refute it. Also, Berkley Earth is using temperature data that has been changed to fit CO2. Leftists.

      • Stephen P Anderson says:

        So, you really want to go through all your perversions?

        “-3:10 He says growth is 3x faster. No, he shows the growth rate increase. It’s a small change year on year on the addition to a large reservoar, halved by sinks.”

        He’s saying anthropogenic emission with respect to time is 3x greater than before 2002. Yes or No?

        • Entropic man says:

          S P A

          pH is negative log H+ concentration, a change of 1pH unit is a tenfold change in H+ concentration. Ocean pH has decreased from 8.2 to 8.1. To a first approximation that is an increase in H+ concentration of 10% and a dissolved CO2 increase between 5% and 10%.

          Your box is permeable above and below.

          At the top of the atmosphere photodissociation of H2O is producing a steady stream of H+ ions into space which will strip Earth of its water in another billion years or so.

          The bottom of the box is permeable. Subduction is removing CO2 from ocean floor sediments into the mantle, and part of it recycles back into the atmosphere through volcanoes.

          There is also fossil carbon removed from the atmosphere and stored as coal, oil, methane clathrates and peat. Do you regard them as inside the box or outside the box?

          • Stephen P Anderson says:

            Yes,
            I believe the CO2 concentration in the ocean has increased 5 to 10%, no argument. Do I believe the pH has dropped from 8.2 to 8.1? No. Has it dropped some. Yes. However much it drops nature can handle it like it has for billions of years.

          • Stephen P Anderson says:

            You see the Earth’s not a closed system because it’s losing 0.0000000000001% of its H+ ions every million years. And, in a billion years the Earth is going to lose all its water. That’s your argument. Because if it was a closed system Salby would be correct. Right? You pretend you’re serious. You’re just a leftist. Both you and Svante. Two leftists.

          • Stephen P Anderson says:

            Let me restate that. Has the concentration of CO2 in the ocean gone up? Yes. How much? 5-10% I don’t know probably the top inch. It is a big ocean and will take probably thousands of years to equilibrate for even small changes. Has the pH of the ocean dropped from 8.2 to 8.1? Definitely not.

          • Svante says:

            Stephen, measurements for you:
            https://tinyurl.com/y25s4pvz

      • Svante says:

        Stephen P Anderson says:

        “Berkley Earth is using temperature data that has been changed to fit CO2.”

        No, they use raw data:
        http://berkeleyearth.org/data/

        “Leftists.”
        No, they are non-political:
        https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Berkeley_Earth

    • Svante says:

      Stephen P Anderson says:

      “Start watching at 9:30 and refute it”

      I did. It is just like the temperature record. You have large short term variations on top of a small yearly increase. The green wiggles are mainly due to the ENSO. If he had bothered to put a trend line through them he would have a measure of the our contribution.

      He uses these short term variations to determine our long term contribution.

      • Stephen P Anderson says:

        He’s using recent data because he probably knows it is the most accurate. OK, show me your math that correlates anthropogenic emission and net CO2?

      • Bart says:

        It’s more than just short term variation. The long term trend also matches:

        http://woodfortrees.org/plot/esrl-co2/mean:12/from:1979/derivative/plot/uah6/scale:0.18/offset:0.144

        • Svante says:

          That is not Salby’s argument, it is your argument.
          The anthropogenic component is why your curve is above zero.

          • Bart says:

            I have no idea what you are trying to imply.

          • Bart says:

            Here is an even longer term match. The long term trend is accounted for by the temperature relationship. Human inputs are not needed.

            https://tinyurl.com/l4r6ex7

          • Svante says:

            Your red curve was centered around zero before the industrial revolution.

          • Bart says:

            A) This is a post hoc ergo propter hoc argument.

            B) Maybe it was, and maybe it wasn’t. Only the ice core proxies say it was, and there is no way of validating them. They disagree with other proxies.

            C) Regime changes occur with complex, nonlinear systems. Perhaps we are simply in a different operating regime now.

            It is all moot. We do not need to speculate on what may have come before. Within the modern era, since reliable and direct measurements became available, it is clear that temperatures are driving the rise in CO2.

          • Svante says:

            Check out table 1, you get the same values from planktic foraminifers, and then some:
            “Atmospheric Carbon Dioxide Concentration
            Across the Mid-Pleistocene Transition”

            https://tinyurl.com/yddoqte8

          • Nate says:

            Svante, thats a good proxy. Sea sediment proxies have been validated, and agree with ice cores.

            Not sure what proxies Bart is talking about.

            For him, inconvenient data is always Moot.

          • Bart says:

            Y’ouch! “My grandmother, what big error bars you have!” “The better to gull you, my dear.”

            Come on, Svante. Even if the researchers were not influenced by a desire to mesh with the narrative (remember Millikan’s oil drop experiment?*), these error bars are huge, rendering the results virtually meaningless.

            It does not matter. Within the modern era, since reliable and direct measurements became available, it is clear that temperatures are driving the rise in CO2. These are real, direct measurements – not proxies. It leaves no room for doubt.

            *http://calteches.library.caltech.edu/51/2/CargoCult.htm

            We have learned a lot from experience about how to handle some of the ways we fool ourselves. One example: Millikan measured the charge on an electron by an experiment with falling oil drops and got an answer which we now know not to be quite right. Its a little bit off, because he had the incorrect value for the viscosity of air. Its interesting to look at the history of measurements of the charge of the electron, after Millikan. If you plot them as a function of time, you find that one is a little bigger than Millikans, and the next ones a little bit bigger than that, and the next ones a little bit bigger than that, until finally they settle down to a number which is higher.

            Why didnt they discover that the new number was higher right away? Its a thing that scientists are ashamed ofthis historybecause its apparent that people did things like this: When they got a number that was too high above Millikans, they thought something must be wrongand they would look for and find a reason why something might be wrong. When they got a number closer to Millikans value they didnt look so hard. And so they eliminated the numbers that were too far off, and did other things like that. Weve learned those tricks nowadays, and now we dont have that kind of a disease.

            If only it were true!

          • Nate says:

            ‘Within the modern era, since reliable and direct measurements became available, it is clear that temperatures are driving the rise in CO2. These are real, direct measurements not proxies. It leaves no room for doubt.’

            This type of evidence also leaves ‘no room for doubt’ that:

            Ice cream purchases in cities drive an increase in homicides.

            Attending high school drives the rise in acne.

            Going to the doctor leads to illness.

            etc.

          • Bart says:

            So, your stated opinion is that temperature is irrelevant to flows of carbon dioxide, or any other fluid for that matter? A lot of books are going to have to be rewritten based on that bombshell.

          • Nate says:

            ‘So, your stated opinion is that temperature is irrelevant to flows of carbon dioxide’

            Oh, is that what I said? Nope.

            I’ve said many times that there are various sources and sinks for carbon on Earth, some of which are temperature-dependent and governed by Henry’s law.

            Henry’s law makes it abundantly clear that a 40% rise in atmospheric CO2 concentration driven by a temperature rise of ~ 1K is impossible.

            The short-term variation of atmospheric CO2 concentration is highly correlated to ENSO.

            For you, this correlation ought to ‘leave no doubt’ that ENSO is driving CO2.

            But, in addition, the causal mechanisms have been identified and CORROBORATED by carbon flux measurements. And they involve the terrestrial biosphere in regions whose weather patterns are strongly modulated by ENSO.

          • Bart says:

            It isn’t. They haven’t.

            It is not just a short term correlation. It is a tight correlation in both the short term and the long.

          • Nate says:

            ‘tight correlation in both the short term and the long’

            Short term correlation, explained above. This mechanism, ENSO, does not act on long time scales.

            Long term we have 3 quantities show a rising trend. CO2 concentration, emissions, and temperature. Many other unrelated quantities have rising trends over this period. Hardly a ‘tight correlation’

            How would you determine what are the causal relationships, if any?

            We can identify highly plausible mechanism that gives a causal link from emissions to concentration, and from concentration to temperature.

            For emissions to concentration an approximate QUANTITATIVE relationship is predicted, and observed. We have many additional lines of corroborating evidence in ice cores, ocean concentration, sediments, CO2 fluxes, isotopes, etc.

            This evidence should not be simply ignored.

            Given all this, there is a huge chasm between a declared ‘tight’ correlation between temperature and CO2 rise, and ‘no room for doubt’ of a causal relationship between them.

      • Bill Hunter says:

        Svante and Nate:

        Be careful about jumping the gun on ocean ph proxies for CO2. Some good validation exists for the ice core record in terms of direction of variation but there never was much question about that. The question has always been with ice core proxies as to whether the ice core proxies provide a good quantification of the amount of CO2 in ancient ice. The charts show the jury is still out of quantification with the boron proxies showing considerably wider range in CO2 variation than the ice cores. However just a glance at the data suggests they have a lot more work to do before one can really compare whether those differences hold up.

        This warning is especially for you Nate as the data as it sits is looking pretty inconvenient for you and very positive to the idea that both CO2 has varied more in the past than suggested by ice core data and that it has been driven by climate because the most recent boron proxies don’t approach the co2 levels in the previous interglacial.

        • Nate says:

          Links? Papers?

          Be specific about what time period you are talking about.

          • Bill Hunter says:

            http://www.p-co2.org/boron

            One should actually read the data before extrapolating what a statement actually means when a proxy says it shows consistency with a previous proxy. The issue is not that ice cores are not a proxy for CO2 or not the issue is whether ice cores preserve all the information about CO2 in the atmosphere. Its not a case that a proxy is a proxy.

          • Nate says:

            Bill, interesting web site. Im not (easily) finding somthing pointing to bad quantification of ice core CO2, particularly for last 100 millenia.

            Where does it say that.

          • bill hunter says:

            Nate the study does not conclude ice cores have bad quantification. The study is attempting to validate the boron isotopes as a valid proxy for CO2 by demonstrating a statistical correlation to the ice core proxy.

            But neither the ice core CO2 proxy nor the boron isotope CO2 proxy have validated maximum annual, decadal, centennial, or even millennial levels of CO2 in the atmosphere. The proxies show residuals averaged over many millenia and thus do not even show that the Holocene has unusual levels of CO2 which we know to be the case by direct measurement.

            The second pair of charts show a plotting of CO2 over the past 800,000 years. The icecore proxy shows the holocene and eemian peaking at around 280ppm (with no range of deviations provided). The boron proxy in attempt to relate it to ice core data shows samples considerably higher for both the holocene and eemian. In fact the chart cuts off the top of the proxy range during the eemian at about 360ppm (though chart lists “pco2 uatm” which equals ppm.

            The boron isotope range of probabilities (i assume 2std) shows the eemian with 340ppm. But all this has to be taken with a grain of salt because these are long period proxies and short bursts of CO2 (like a single 100 or 200 year increase) may not be preserved in the data.

            This problem is ubiquitous in climate science when looking over long periods of time and its an easy sell to the gullible that the proxies preserve all the necessary data to arrive at a conclusion. In this case the boron proxies are stretching the range of CO2 variation as can clearly be seen in the data.

        • Nate says:

          ‘The proxies show residuals averaged over many millenia’

          Going back millions of years, the smoothing indeed gets longer.

          But going back a few millenia, the smoothing can be as low as one decade:

          https://agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/full/10.1029/2011GB004247

          The clear tracking of C13 reduction with CO2 rise in ice cores leaves little doubt about anthro origins.

          https://wol-prod-cdn.literatumonline.com/cms/attachment/59700111-f0ef-41d9-8759-97d807722b75/jgrd50668-fig-0003-m.jpg

          from this paper:

          https://agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/full/10.1002/jgrd.50668

          • Bill Hunter says:

            Nate I don’t think anybody has suggested mankind has not emitted CO2. Nor has anybody suggested to my knowledge that CO2 was not low coming out of the LIA. You challenged the idea that CO2 is driven by temperature instead of the other way around by suggesting multiple proxies say otherwise.

            I merely pointed out that new proxies are suggesting more temperature forcing on CO2 content in the atmosphere, not less. We know that anthropogenic emissions did not cause the high levels of CO2 being seen in new proxies. There is a question as to whether anthropogenic emissions are making the lionshare of the seen increase or not. I know scientists like to pontificate, my response is show me the evidence. 40 years of watching scientists with clients with agendas pontificate and game the system suggests everybody should thoroughly understand the evidence instead of just believing. Fool me once shame on you, fool me twice shame on me. Problem is so many folks haven’t noticed being fooled the first time.

          • Nate says:

            ‘There is a question as to whether anthropogenic emissions are making the lionshare of the seen increase or not. I know scientists like to pontificate, my response is show me the evidence. ‘

            ‘You challenged the idea that CO2 is driven by temperature’

            Yes, and I showed you excellent evidence above, which is but a small piece of a huge body of evidence.

            The papers show that over the last 1000 y, CO2, measured with 10-20 y time resolution, showed no excursions more than 10 ppm, away from the ~ 280 ppm mean until the 20th century.

            That covers the period of the MWP and the LIA, when, most agree, variation of global temperature of 0.5 -1.0 C, happened.

            Then in the 19th to 20th century, ice core CO2 and measured atm CO2 are shown to match, and rise ~ 100 ppm with a global temperature rise of ~ 1.0 C.

            The C13 data is finally strong CSI evidence of anthro origins.

  61. PhilJ says:

    “All the other potential climate forcings except CO2 are presently neutral or driving slow cooling.”

    Lol, i think ill add that to my list of kneeslappers…

  62. ren says:

    More rainfalls from the Pacific are coming to California.
    https://images.tinypic.pl/i/00981/i8n453v9gljr.png

  63. S Paul Anderson says:

    Mathematically refute it. Your little squiggle and ENSO comments aren’t refuting anything.

    • Stephen P Anderson says:

      Also, he mentions the El Nino when he is commenting. Did you even listen to it? It isn’t like he’s unaware of it. It doesn’t change the math.

      • Stephen P Anderson says:

        Svante,
        Refute 1 + 1 = 2.

        “Well, the first one is leaning a little left, and the plus sign is offset, and the equal sign is out of proportion to the rest of the equation. There I refuted it.”

        • Svante says:

          I’m not refuting his math, I’m refuting it’s foundation.

          If he had bothered putting a trend line through his green curve:
          https://tinyurl.com/yxzmu7oc

          Then it would have matched the red curve he shows seconds later (divided by half for sinks).

          Large natural variation on top of a small anthropogenic increase. Like the temperature record that confuses so many people here.

  64. bdgwx says:

    Maybe you guys can help me figure out what he is doing. At 1:04:00 he presents a slide of what his model predicts from 1980 to 2012. I can’t figure out how he drew the blue dotted line though. I’ve tried various different ways of “integrating the temperature” using both the Berkeley Earth and UAH datasets and I’ve tried various sensitivity parameters and I just don’t see how he is doing it.

    However, from the slide at around 0:11:00 it looks like we can estimate the sensitivity parameter. Assuming I’m understanding his model it looks like it is around 150 ppmCO2/K. But what strikes me odd is that his model appears to treat the sensitivity parameter as if it were static and independent of the actual temperature. This seems to work okay for post 1960 data, but produces confusing and unrealistic results different periods of time in the paleoclimate record.

    Also, it seems like he’s attributing all (or most anyway) of the atmospheric CO2 increase to “native emissions”. Where did all of that anthroprogenic CO2 go if it didn’t go into the atmosphere? And what is the source of this “native emissions”?

    • bdgwx says:

      Just to clarify…I’m referring to the Salby video posted above.

    • Stephen P Anderson says:

      He used satellite data. So, it’d be the difference in temperature added to the temperature scaled to that plot. Also, by native I assume he means natural. The anthropogenic CO2 is there but he is saying it is so small it is undetectible even after 2002. The source of the natural emissions is the Earth’s surface.

      • Stephen P Anderson says:

        As far as your question about sensitivity, I don’t know. I have a lot of questions too. I wish there was a place you could submit questions to him. I guess he got harassed so much he has stayed secluded.

        • Stephen P Anderson says:

          He used radiosonde. It should work with any accurate temperature data set. You can do it in your head. The interval changes are matching the slope.

      • bdgwx says:

        I tried that in Excel with the monthly data. The fit between predicted and observed is not as good as what Salby shows. And to do it I had to use a sensitivity parameter of about 0.32 pCO2 per K on the monthly data. But that had to be specifically tuned for the 1980 to 2012 period. Different periods require tuning the sensitivity parameter differently. And even then the fit is loose. And if I run the model forward and backward beyond 1980 and 2012 then it starts diverging even more.

        What we need is for Salby to publish the details of his model so that we can try and reproduce it and back test it over various time periods.

        • Bart says:

          Your sensitivity parameter should be in units of ppm/unit-of-time/K. It is an integral relationship (i.e., the rate of change of CO2 is proportional to appropriately baselined temperature anomaly).

          • bdgwx says:

            Yeah, that’s what I’ve been doing. For example, if I do the integral over the trivial endpoint to endpoint for the post 1960 data then I get 150 ppm/yr/K which produces reasonable results at least with that time period. But if I do 150/12 ppm/month/K and try to apply that sensitivity parameter to the monthly data all hell breaks loose. When working with the monthly data 0.32 ppm/month/K seemed to produce reasonable results at least for the period in question. I’m also struggling with figuring out what that appropriate baseline temperature is that he used. His model seems to be very sensitive on what you choose as the baseline.

          • Bart says:

            In this plot, the derivative is in ppm/month:

            http://woodfortrees.org/plot/esrl-co2/mean:12/from:1979/derivative/plot/uah6/offset:0.8/scale:0.18

            The scale factor is 0.18ppm/month/K, and the offset is 0.8 K.

  65. JDHuffman says:

    San Jose Mercury News (CA) – June 30, 1989 – 3F General News

    GRIM FORECAST
    A senior environmental official at the United Nations, Noel Brown, says entire nations could be wiped off the face of the earth by rising sea levels if global warming is not reversed by the year 2000. Coastal flooding and crop failures would create an exodus of “eco-refugees,” threatening political chaos, said Brown, director of the New York office of the U.N. Environment Program. He said governments have a 10-year window of opportunity to solve the greenhouse effect before it goes beyond human…

    • Mike Flynn says:

      JDH,

      You overlooked the fact that 10 pseudoscientific climatological UN years actually represent an imaginary duration.

      Not nearly as precise as dog years, the PCUN year is exactly as long as you want it to be – your prediction based on PCUN years can never be shown to be wrong.

      Flexible and rubbery inconstant constants are worshipped by the pseudoscientific. An example would be the Greenhouse Effect, which apparently has nothing to do with greenhouses, and cannot be demonstrated to have any effect at all!

      I hope I have put you on the right path, and alleviated your concerns somewhat.

      (I presume I don’t need a sarc tag.)

      Cheers.

      • JDHuffman says:

        Good job, Mike.

        My favorite sentence: “Flexible and rubbery inconstant constants are worshipped by the pseudoscientific.”

  66. Entropic man says:

    “Berkley Earth is using temperature data that has been changed to fit CO2. Leftists.”

    “Youre just a leftist. Both you and Svante. Two leftists.”

    What happened?

    I thought I was discussing science.

    Now, suddenly, you have turned into a rightist conspiracy theorist.

    • Stephen P Anderson says:

      OK. What is the lower boundary for ocean pH if CO2 in the atmosphere goes to 5000ppm.

      • Stephen P Anderson says:

        By the way it isn’t a conspiracy. There’s not that much thought the goes into it. You’re Borg.

      • Stephen P Anderson says:

        Amazing!

      • bdgwx says:

        Past experience tells us that Steve Goddard or Tony Heller or whatever his real name is not what most would call a credible/reputable source so it is probably prudent to cross check his work. Anyway, Berkeley Earth has a great write up on the adjustments that go into processing GHCN and USHCN datasets.

        http://berkeleyearth.org/understanding-adjustments-temperature-data/

        • Bart says:

          Bury your head in the sand if you like. The idea that this relationship is just happenstance, however, falls flat. This is what the adjustments look like over time:

          https://tinyurl.com/yypkl3qh

          And, it just happens to be linear with respect to CO2. Sure thing. Pull the other one.

        • Stephen P Anderson says:

          Muller seemed to be a somewhat credible guy at one time. They must have threatened him regarding his investments in the Canadian tar sands. He caved like a delapidated old mine shaft.

      • Bindidon says:

        Jesus, Bart! You are disappointing me here.

        You? A gullible follower of Goddard’s poorish manipulations?
        Je n’ose pas y croire.

        Today I had some smalltalk at WUWT concerning a station in Prague (Czech Republic, Europe).

        A commenter there didn’t trust in Berkeley Earth’s data for his city, and thus I generated a time series of the GHCN V3 station in order to compare the data with BEST’s. The fit couldn’t be better.

        *
        And suddenly I remembered to have debunked years ago lots of his lies concerning the GHCN dataset: he showed comparisons of unadjusted with adjusted data (of course only in those cases where the latter had a higher trend).

        But in fact, it was mostly bare nonsense: the adjusted record clearly had not been manipulated to show more warming, but to eliminate spurious station behavior.

        *
        Exactly what happened in Prague in the GHCN V3 record for the station

        61111518000 50.1000 14.2500 365.0 PRAHA/RUZYNE 322U 1161HIxxno-9A 3COOL FOR./FIELD C

        Look at the unadjusted data:

        https://drive.google.com/file/d/1bByN_3zBUyLpMtE214UrP3hXPMmRwxVU/view

        and now at the adjusted variant:

        https://drive.google.com/file/d/1OzfsqFcbJ18QRcKUUPkBYNVFhEccWMoc/view

        What do you do if you are either unable or unwilling to process GHCN V3’s 300 MB data?

        You simply believe Goddard, that’s all, and say

        “WOAAAH! NOAA manipulates us, the adjusted thing shows 0.2 C more warming per decade than the original!!!”

        But by accident, I had some experience in doing such jobs, and for nearly all stations, I could see what exactly had happened.

        And that is how these examples looked like four years ago:

        https://drive.google.com/file/d/1wdeNtl2SEhzFoEZ7oXlLeLgDXJ2bGy6G/view

        There is NO trend difference between the two records!

        What happened at this Prague station is that till August 1939, it reported temperatures which were biased by 1.77 C… without anybody having noticed it (otherwise, the correction would have been made there).

        Yes: that’s Goddard aka heller.

        • Bart says:

          I’m sure you can always find examples of legitimate adjustments. It does not prove all of them are legitimate. To me, the almost linear relationship between UCHSN and CO2 is a red flag. I have seen the plot in other places than Heller’s, and as of right now, I believe it is correct. If you can show it is not, then please do. If not, please do not offer me red herrings instead.

          • Stephen P Anderson says:

            Salby mentions it all over his presentations. Says they are synonymous-not virtually but SYNONYMOUS. In order to believe that you have to believe that something that contributes 1% to the energy budget is responsible for 100% of the temperature change. In one he chuckled-something about being less conspicuous.

    • Mike Flynn says:

      Em,

      Would this be the same non-profit charitable organisation (pays no taxes) which publishes pseudoscientific papers in predatory journals?

      The same one which chose the name Berkeley Earth to appear associated with the University of California, Berkeley?

      I’m sure you would like to discuss science. You just do not know how.

      Cheers.

  67. PhilJ says:

    “Mon 8 Oct 2018 02.23 EDT First published on Sun 7 Oct 2018 21.00 EDT
    This article is over 5 months old
    The worlds leading climate scientists have warned there is only a dozen years for global warming to be kept to a maximum of 1.5C, beyond which even half a degree will significantly worsen the risks of drought, floods, extreme heat and poverty for hundreds of millions of people”

    Looks like 30 years later weve added a couple years to our window there JD,

    If the trend continues, by 2100 we’ll only have 17 years to deindustrialize… Govts better get busy…

  68. Entropic man says:

    S A D

    Berkely Earth was revealing. It was set up to provide a sceptical check on the other temperature datasets, with a mixture of independant and sceptical scientists and finance from the Koch brothers.

    When it matched the other datasets it provided an insight into the motivation of all sceptics.

    Muller chose evidence over belief and joined the consensus. Curry chose belief over evidence and walked away.

    I classify you with Curry rather than Muller.

    • JDHuffman says:

      E-man, there is another interpretation: Muller believed early that AGW was a hoax, but realized there was easy money to be had by joining the con.

      • bdgwx says:

        That’s quite a stretch considering that Muller was openly critical of AGW. For example, he threw his lot in with McIntyre and McKitrick in criticizing Mann’s “hockey stick” graph. If this was all just a ruse to con skeptics out of money then he played the part well for nearly a decade. Which explanation is easier to believe…that Muller went to great lengths to con skeptics or that the Earth really has warmed by the amount that the dozen plus datasets including conventional, satellite, and reanalysis had already shown.

        • JDHuffman says:

          Nice attempt to spin what I said, bdgwx.

          My point: Muller first rejected the AGW hoax, then joined the hoax.

          You spun that to: Muller first conned Skeptics, then “came out of the closet”.

          We can each believe what we want, just don’t try to alter my words.

          • bdgwx says:

            Wasnt the easy money that which was provided to initially fund Berkeley Earth?

          • JDHuffman says:

            Well, your point might be right. First he was conning the Skeptics, now he is conning the Warmists.

            Could be….

          • bdgwx says:

            That’s what I’m saying. If you buy into that line of conspiracy then he obtained “easy money” from both sides and continues to act out the ruse even to this day. Sounds pretty far fetched to me…

    • Svante says:

      It’s funny that Curry put her name on the methods paper but not on the results.

    • Stephen P Anderson says:

      Again, it didn’t match the other data sets. As Salby says it was SNYNONYMOUS with temperature data sets.

  69. bdgwx says:

    Wasn’t the easy money that which was provided to initially fund Berkeley Earth?

    • bdgwx says:

      Sounds similar, at least in concept, to the Luntz memo from a prior presidential administration.

      https://www.sourcewatch.org/images/4/45/LuntzResearch.Memo.pdf

      The intent here was to coach the administration at the time in sidestepping and deflecting away from the issue.

      For example, it was suggested to say things like:

      “Scientists can extrapolate all kinds of things from today’s data, but that doesn’t tell us anything about tomorrow’s world.”

      And it recommend to “redefine labels” and use the term “climate change” instead of “global warming” because it is “less frightening”.

      To be fair though there are some good points and the “Nine Principals of Environmental Policy and Global Warming” aren’t unreasonable…mostly anyway. Though I did find it ironic that the section was labeled “Global Warming” rather than “Climate Change” as was recommended previously in the memo.

      • Entropic man says:

        Bdgwx

        This is an old strategy,dating all the way back to putting tetra-ethyl lead in petrol and reused in the tobacco debate.

        Human nature doesn’t change.

        That this committee is being considered at all is depressing.

        Donald Trump surrounded himself with able men when he came into office, but then either fired them or drove them away.

        Now he is surrounded by yes-men and wants to set up a climate committee which will tell him what he wants to hear, rather than what he needs to know.

    • Mike Flynn says:

      Em,

      from your link –

      “William Happer, a senior director at the NSC and an emeritus Princeton University physics professor not trained in climate science, is leading the effort.”

      He seems to be highly qualified in the physics that involve interaction between radiation and matter, unlike the undistinguished mathematician Gavin Schmidt, or the geologist Michael Mann. There is no academic discipline called climatology. Anybody claiming to be a climate scientist is either a fool or a fraud.

      Climate is the average of weather, no more no less. Any dimwitted wannabe can claim to be a climate scientist, and many do.

      Climate pseudoscience is made up by its practitioners on an ad hoc basis. For example, that supposed firm pillar of support, The Greenhouse Effect, has nothing to do with any physical greenhouse, nor can its mythical effect be reliably observed or quantified.

      There is no GHE hypothesis, because the GHE can not actually be observed. No testable GHE hypothesis, no science.

      As Richard Feynman said –

      ‘It doesn’t matter how beautiful your theory is, it doesn’t matter how smart you are. If it doesn’t agree with experiment, it’s wrong.”

      Nobody has yet managed to demonstrate that reducing the amount of energy reaching a thermometer by increasing the amount of CO2 between the Sun and the thermometer, makes the thermometer hotter. So sad, too bad.

      Cheers

      • bdgwx says:

        “Nobody has yet managed to demonstrate that reducing the amount of energy reaching a thermometer by increasing the amount of CO2 between the Sun and the thermometer, makes the thermometer hotter. So sad, too bad.”

        UAH has demonstrated this. In addition they also demonstrated that increasing the amount of CO2 between the upwelling longwave radiation emitted by the Earth and the thermometer, makes the thermometer colder.

        Sure you can make various arguments that other physical processes could produce this effect as well. But to be convincing you have to identify the physical process, quantify its magnitude, back test it against all available data, and publish a detailed model of the effect that can be repeated by others for verification. At the very least an observation other than a warming troposphere/hydrosphere simultaneous with a cooling stratosphere would falsify the GHE hypothesis.

        • Mike Flynn says:

          b,

          Don’t be stupid. Nobody has demonstrated that reducing the amount of radiation reaching a thermometer makes it hotter! Not UAH, that’s for sure.

          Your jargon laden nonsense about “upwelling longwave radiation” is sciencey sounding rubbish.

          I’m not making arguments. I’m just pointing out the stupidity and ignorance of who claim there is a testable GHE hypothesis, such as yourself. You can’t produce a copy of a testable GHE hypothesis, and neither can anybody else!

          You could always try claiming that everybody knows what it is, but you can’t quite find your copy, or you have forgotten how to paste on this blog.

          Witless fool. The Earth has cooled since its creation. Does your testable GHE hypothesis take this into account? Does the GHE work at night, or indoors, or in winter?

          Cheers.

          • bdgwx says:

            What I’m saying is that a CO2 blanket between the Sun and the thermometer results in a positive radiant perturbation in the vicinity of the thermometer thus making it hotter. Likewise, the same blanket lying between the source of outgoing longwave radiation and a thermometer results in a negative radiant perturbation in the vicinity of the thermometer thus making it colder. The UAH dataset is consistent with the GHE hypothesis. That is the lower troposphere is warming (0.13C/decade) and the stratosphere is cooling (-0.29C/decade).

            When I saw “reducing the amount” is your post I honestly just assumed that was a typo and that you were probably talking about an increase.

            First, the GHE hypothesis isn’t mine. I didn’t think of it. Second, why would an observation other than a warming troposhere/hydrosphere simultaneous with a cooling stratosphere not be sufficient to falsify it?

          • Mike flynn says:

            b,

            More incomprehensible jargon –

            “What I’m saying is that a CO2 blanket between the Sun and the thermometer results in a positive radiant perturbation in the vicinity of the thermometer thus making it hotter. Likewise, the same blanket lying between the source of outgoing longwave radiation and a thermometer results in a negative radiant perturbation in the vicinity of the thermometer thus making it colder.”

            Complete garbage. The atmosphere reduces the amount of radiation reaching the thermometer. You claim this makes it hotter. Only in a pseudoscientific climatological fantasy!

            No GHE. No CO2 heating. Gavin Schmidt is not a world renowned climate scientist – he’s a an undistinguished, demonstrably incompetent mathematician. Michael Mann is not a Nobel Prize winner – nor a climate scientist.

            Carry on dreaming.

            Cheers.

          • bdgwx says:

            The atmosphere reduces the amount of solar radiation reaching the surface, but it increases the amount of outgoing longwave radiation that gets redirected back toward the surface.

          • Mike Flynn says:

            b,

            Presumably that is why it is colder at night, in winter, in the shade, and no doubt accounts for the Earth’s surface having cooled over the last four and a half billion years or so?

            Or are you trying to avoid defining the GHE, hoping no one will notice? Have you found a testable GHE hypothesis yet?

            Cheers.

      • E. Swanson says:

        MF, as usual, repeats his usual straw man arguments.
        For example, there is a scientific discipline called Atmospheric Science, which studies the thermal processes in question. And, your comment: Climate is the average of weather, is incomplete since climate includes all of statistics, such as extremes of temperature and precipitation, as well as other changes, such as increasing troposphere height.

        Lastly, you again repeat your comment which incorrectly states the thermodynamics of thermal energy transfer, which is, the warming occurs in the atmosphere between the surface and the sink of the very cold deep space, not between the Sun and the Earth’s surface.

        Next, MF will probably toss out his red herring claim about heating a warmer body with a block of ice. Well, I may post a demonstration of that effect, once I get around to writing it up…

        • Mike Flynn says:

          ES,

          You obviously have difficulty with comprehension. As you can’t figure out how to directly quote me, I’ll help you out. Here’s what I wrote –

          “There is no academic discipline called climatology. Anybody claiming to be a climate scientist is either a fool or a fraud.”

          Waffling about atmospheric science is completely irrelevant. Maybe you could choose to disagree with my statement, rather than disagreeing with something you created.

          Heres the definition of climate – from the World Meteorological Organisation and IPCC –

          “Climate in a narrow sense is usually defined as the “average weather,” or more rigorously, as the statistical description in terms of the mean and variability of relevant quantities over a period of time ranging from months to thousands or millions of years. The classical period is 30 years, as defined by the World Meteorological Organization (WMO). These quantities are most often surface variables such as temperature, precipitation, and wind. Climate in a wider sense is the state, including a statistical description, of the climate system.”

          If you want to use another definition, go ahead. If I want to ignore it, I will.

          You wrote –

          “Lastly, you again repeat your comment which incorrectly states the thermodynamics of thermal energy transfer, which is, the warming occurs in the atmosphere between the surface and the sink of the very cold deep space, not between the Sun and the Earths surface.”

          No, I didn’t repeat (or even say) what you accuse me of. I’m sure if I did, you would have quoted me. You are just making stuff up, as usual. Maybe you would be better off arguing with yourself. You would at least stand a small chance of victory.

          I look forward to you demonstrating how to heat water using ice as heat source. I wouldn’t be surprised if you include a sneaky additional heat source or two, hoping nobody will notice. A foolish pseudoscientist might try such a stupid thing, I guess.

          Cheers.

          • E. Swanson says:

            MF, I was attempting to point to your simplistic definition of climate. Notice that the WMO definition includes all the statistics, not just averages. In any event, it should be obvious that climate change is the result of the weather changing. Weather is almost never “average”, is it? The only way to measure climate is to compile weather statistics over an appropriate period of time.

            Your latest definition of your ice block challenge is of no relevance to the problem of AGW on the real Earth or to my experiments, both of which include an input of energy from an external source. Just another example of the usual obfuscation from one whose apparent goal is to add to efforts by the denialist camp to ignore mankind’s impacts on the planet.

          • Mike Flynn says:

            ES,

            The IPCC got one thing right, at least –

            “The climate system is a coupled non-linear chaotic system, and therefore the long-term prediction of future climate states is not possible.”

            Not possible means it cannot be done.

            Regardless of multi coloured plates, or brightly coloured cartoons.

            It looks like the IPCC agrees with me that the effects of mankind’s impacts on the climate of the planet cannot be predicted. You are free to deny the IPCC conclusions, in addition to mine.

            Deny away. I wish you well.

            Cheers.

          • E. Swanson says:

            MF, Your cherry picking quote leaves out the rest of the reference:

            Improve methods to quantify uncertainties of climate projections and scenarios, including development and exploration of long-term ensemble simulations using complex models. The climate system is a coupled non-linear chaotic system, and therefore the long-term prediction of future climate states is not possible. Rather the focus must be upon the prediction of the probability distribution of the system’s future possible states by the generation of ensembles of model solutions. Addressing adequately the statistical nature of climate is computationally intensive and requires the application of new methods of model diagnosis, but such statistical information is essential. (TAR WG I Chapter 14)

            Of course, you (and others) continue to ignore the fact that neither the Greenhouse Effect or my Green Plate Demo violate the 2nd Law because there’s an energy source providing a flow of energy thru each system. Rant all you want, you can’t change physics.

          • Mike Flynn says:

            ES,

            I notice you don’t dispute what I quoted. No matter how you try to justify the pseudoscientific climatological nonsense, predicting future climate states is not possible. Can’t be done. Anybody who claims to be able to predict climate states is a fool or a fraud.

            Generating ensembles is a complete waste of time. If an ensemble consists of a thousand different results, then at least 999 must be wrong. More likely, none are correct, but in any case, if one result just happened to be correct, which one do you pick?

            The text you emphasised is just the sciencey ramblings of people like the rather dim Gavin Schmidt, trying to keep the money flowing. Model diagnosis is pointless – even you should have realised that by now. There is no GHE description, no testable GHE hypothesis, just a ragtag mob of delusionally psychotic individuals, convinced of their ability to turn fantasy into fact. Not much science there, eh?

            Maybe you could quote me in relation to your nonsensical assertions about any comments that your fantasy has me making. Or maybe you can’t, because your delusion is only faintly attached to reality.

            Carry on heating stuff. Be amazed that a heat source can transmit energy to an object. At least it keeps you calm and off the streets, I suppose.

            CO2 heats nothing. The Earth has cooled over the last four and a half billion years, as evidenced by the fact that if you look between your feet, you don’t see glowing molten rock. That is reality – climatological pseudoscience notwithstanding.

            Cheers.

  70. Svante says:

    Stephen P Anderson says:
    “Youre just a leftist. Both you and Svante. Two leftists.”

    I’d like to be a rightist alarmist please, or is that not allowed these days?

  71. Svante says:

    I thought Tillerson came from Texas.

    • Mike Flynn says:

      S,

      Is there a reason you believe that anyone particularly cares what you think?

      Just wondering.

      Cheers.

      • Entropic man says:

        Mike Flynn

        “Is there a reason you believe that anyone particularly cares what you think?”

        Yes. You and JDHuffman are the reason. You invest enormous time and effort trying to ridicule anyone who comes here supporting the AGW consensus.

        If you didn’t care passionately about what the consensus thinks, then you wouldn’t bother attacking us.

        • Stephen P Anderson says:

          E-man,
          There is no AGW consensus. The only consensus is among you Justice Democrats.

          • Stephen P Anderson says:

            The greatest country ever created, the greatest free enterprise, the greatest wealth creator, the greatest standard of living and you mentally deranged wackos want to destroy it-unbelieveable.

          • Svante says:

            You can have that without putting others at risk.

          • Stephen P Anderson says:

            No one is putting anyone at risk. This whole AGW is a false, unscientific narrative that leftists are using to try to gain more power-nothing else. It has been falsified many times already. Your ilk’s only reason for ignoring is that it isn’t about anything other than the agenda of the radical left.

          • Dan Pangburn says:

            SPA,, YES!

            IMO the separation between the rising CO2 and not-rising temperature trend will need to be substantial before some of these warmers begin to realize that they have been deceived.

            The ongoing el Nino condition is preventing continuation of the temperature decline that would otherwise be occurring. This graph of el Nino is thru Mar 13, 2019 https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/308389ca4ceeeec2c9a33616ec5a6dae6ab714c8b3d847ea813525b62cc6e8ff.jpg

          • Entropic man says:

            I’m not an american.

            What is a justice democrat?

          • Svante says:

            Stephen P Anderson says:

            No one is putting anyone at risk. This whole AGW is a false, unscientific narrative that leftists are using to try to gain more power-nothing else. It has been falsified many times already. Your ilk’s only reason for ignoring is that it isn’t about anything other than the agenda of the radical left.

            Rex Tillerson is my ilk.
            He says you have to be fact based.
            He says this is a serious risk.
            He had an independent science department at his disposal when he was head of Exxon.
            Why did they not discover that it was a leftist hoax?
            Because Tillerson is leftist?
            Grant him 3.5 minutes here:
            https://tinyurl.com/y34fz3rb

          • Stephen P Anderson says:

            I’m not an american.

            What is a justice democrat?

            Leftists don’t call themselves leftists or Marxists.

          • Stephen P Anderson says:

            Svante,

            Tillerson is a moron.

          • Stephen P Anderson says:

            woodfortrees LOL!

          • Svante says:

            Stephen, you got him mixed up with the other guy in that meeting.

          • Stephen P Anderson says:

            Tillerson is a good example of the Peter Principle.

          • Svante says:

            You are still confusing him with that other guy.

  72. Svend Ferdinandsen says:

    If the satellite sea level they show was just the level relative to the geoide it would be OK.
    Unfortunately they mix in some GIA to make the sea level represent the amount of water in the sea.
    I dont care of the amount of water, and those who care could figure it out by them selves, i only care for the level at the shores.

    I allways check this site https://www.psmsl.org/data/obtaining/
    to see how the sea behaves relative to land.

  73. Bindidon says:

    Svend Ferdinandsen

    “Unfortunately they mix in some GIA to make the sea level represent the amount of water in the sea.”

    Do you have a source accurately explaining that? Your wording is a bit cryptic…

    *
    “… and those who care could figure it out by them selves, i only care for the level at the shores.”

    You write as if you would suppose a huge difference between altimetry and gauges.

    Here is an anomaly-based comparison between the altimetry data from U Colorado and PMSL (out of roughly 600 gauges having data for 1993-2013):

    https://drive.google.com/file/d/165M66btxeC5apsmo-h3XNgCBB4S_rEGI/view

    The PMSL evaluation is home-made, by far not complete, but the graph above already gives an idea of what it will look like in the end.

    Thus my question: what is your point?

  74. Bindidon says:

    Svend Ferdinandsen

    Are you sure you are correctly informed about sat altimetry data vs. glacial isostatic adjustment?

    The first line in

    http://sealevel.colorado.edu/files/2018_rel1/sl_ns_global.txt

    is

    # Date 2018_rel1 GMSL w/ seasonal signals and GIA removed (mm)

    The PMSL data was obtained from

    https://www.psmsl.org/data/obtaining/complete.php (RLR monthly).

  75. Entropic man says:

    Dan Pangburn

    I disagree with your assessment that El Nino is all that is stopping a temperature decline.

    As your own graph shows, we are in ENSO neutral conditions.

    Now that the 2016 El Nino peak has passed, the current temperatures are not showing any cooling trend. They are sitting slap on the 50 year warming trend.

    http://www.woodfortrees.org/plot/gistemp/from:1970/to:2019/every/trend/plot/gistemp/from:1970/to:2019/every/trend/offset:0.09/plot/gistemp/from:1970/to:2019/every/trend/offset:-0.09/plot/gistemp/from:1970/to:2019/every

  76. Dan Pangburn says:

    E,, That was my first take also. After collecting the multiple compelling data that CO2 had little, if any, effect on climate, discovering the 7% increase in WV since 1960, running an assessment which shows 98.3% match with measured avg global temp 1895-2018 considering WV, ocean cycles & time-integral of SSN anomalies, realizing WV declines from avg 10,000 ppm at surface to about 32 ppm at about 10 km (-50 K), realizing CO2 molecules outnumber WV molecules about 12 to 1 above about 10 km, understanding the notch(es) and spikes centered on main wavenumber for CO2 & O3, in TOA graphs of flux vs wavenumber, determining that WV increase correlates with irrigation increase, it all makes sense that WV has been humanity’s contribution (less than 0.4 K) to GW and it is self-limiting

    El Nino(s) still playing out appear to be in close correlation with water vapor and average global temperature. . https://pbs.twimg.com/media/D2TdkhoVYAAd_g4.jpg

    • Mike Flynn says:

      Dan,

      I don’t know whether the figures are accurate, but Our World in Data shows fossil fuel energy production in 2017 about 22 times that of 1900, at about 133 TWh.

      Given that combustion of hydrocarbon fossil fuels results in the production of CO(2) and H2O at the least, might not additional CO2 and H2O in the atmosphere result from burning lots and lots of stuff?

      Of course, these figures do not include all the extra combustion from a massively increased population since 1900, nor the additional CO2 etc from increased oxygen breathing life, from bacteria to blue whales ( substitute something else if you like – I was just using blue whales to illustrate the range of oxygen breathers).

      I assume we will cope with the reduction in O2 caused by all this temporary sequestration into CO2 and H2O.

      I remain optimistic. Hopefully, the universe is unfolding as it should!

      Cheers.

    • bdgwx says:

      Have you looked oceanic heat content? It’s a better metric for quantifying the heating because the oceans account for 90% of the uptake whereas the troposphere, cryosphere, land, etc. combine for the rest.

      • Mike Flynn says:

        b,

        The oceans are heated from the bottom, of course. That is why they don’t freeze through. Warmer (less dense) water floats. Any water heated by the sun floats – it doesn’t sink. Anybody who believes less dense water can displace denser water, and sink, is just stupid and ignorant.

        Foolish fellows such as Trenberth believe that heat is hiding in the oceans – without heating the water it is hiding in. If it did, the heated water would rise. Once on the top, at night, it would radiate heat to space, cool, and sink, displacing now warmer water to the surface , continuously. Eventually, the densest (not necessarily the coldest due to the wonderfully weird properties of water) water reaches the bottom – not far from the red-hot mantle below.

        No Polar cooling, and water magically flowing around the sphere to the tropics. No deep ocean currents at 180 degrees to each other because of surface winds. Some people at NOAA and NASA are obviously afflicted with infectious pseudoscientism. Just like the NSF, who for years strenuously resisted the fact that Archmedes’ principle applies around the world, whether US pseudoscientists agree with it or not.

        Carry on. I don’t expect a testable GHE hypothesis from you any time soon. Maybe an explanation of how reducing the radiation to a thermometer makes it show a higher temperature? Perturbations in the vicinity, perhaps? Or maybe it’s just a pseudoscientific delusion.

        Cheers.

        • E. Swanson says:

          MF, As usual, you give a garbled description of ocean heat flow. To be sure, the densest waters do sink to the bottom and those originate from only a few locations at high latitudes. As a result, the sinking waters are very cold, so the oceans are continually being “refilled” from the bottom up with those water flows at near freezing temperatures. It should be obvious that these facts show that the sinking of cold water totally overwhelms the geothermal energy added to the bottom of the Earth’s oceans, else the temperature profiles from the bottom to the surface would be much different.

          Of course, you also ignore the effects of salt on the oceans’ circulation. True, pure water exhibits a maximum density at around 4 deg C, but add in salt and the density continues to increase until freezing occurs below 0 deg C. When the water freezes at the surface, salt is rejected from the crystalline matrix, which further densifies the surrounding water, which also promotes sinking. The combination of these process drive the thermohaline circulation that you allude to.

          Learn some oceanography!

          • Mike Flynn says:

            ES,

            As usual, you cannot find it within yourself to actually quote something I said. I don’t blame you. You would wind up looking rather more stupid than usual, wouldn’t you?

            You mutter about me “alluding” to the “thermohaline circulation”. Of course I didn’t. That is a figment of your imagination, as anybody can plainly see for themselves.

            Carry on with your fantasy. Maybe one of these days you can abandon pseudoscience, but I doubt it.

            No GHE. No CO2 heating.

            Cheers.

          • E. Swanson says:

            MF previously wrote:

            No Polar cooling, and water magically flowing around the sphere to the tropics. No deep ocean currents at 180 degrees to each other because of surface winds.

            Then next claimed:

            You mutter about me alluding to the thermohaline circulation. Of course I didnt.

            What does the first quote pertain to if not the Thermahaline circulation? True, the Gulf Stream is a wind driven Western Boundary Current, but a portion of that flow, roughly 1/4, branches toward the north, eventually cooling and sinking to the bottom. That sinking and a similar process around the Antarctic, are the reason the world’s oceans exhibit temperatures near 0 C at depth, even at tropical latitudes.

            MF is the guy living in fantasy land.

      • Bindidon says:

        bdgwx

        Instead of pseudoskeptic nonsense a la Flynn, here are some facts provided by the Japanese Met Agency:

        Ocean heat content

        https://www.data.jma.go.jp/gmd/kaiyou/english/ohc/ohc_global_en.html

        This blah blah like

        “The oceans are heated from the bottom, of course.” is absolutely utter nonsense.

        Pseudoskeptics love to compare geothermal energy with incoming solar radiation!

        That is comparing 1 Watt/m^2 with about 240.

        The warming of deep oceanic layers is due to the Thermohaline Circulation wich absorbs huge quantities of surface water transported downwards.

        • bdgwx says:

          Yep. And I believe the figure for recent decades over a 2000m depth is almost +10e22 j/decade.

        • Carbon500 says:

          Binidon: This will be of of interest; note the section on heat flow and the oceans:
          https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Geothermal_gradient

          • Mike Flynn says:

            C500,

            I doubt you have brought any additional joy into his life, by showing him this –

            “More of the heat in the Earth is lost through plate tectonics, by mantle upwelling associated with mid-ocean ridges. The final major mode of heat loss is by conduction through the lithosphere, the majority of which occurs in the oceans due to the crust there being much thinner and younger than under the continents.

            Oh well, he can always close his eyes and refuse to look. Or close his mind, and refuse to consider that a big molten blob in space has no choice except to cool.

            Cheers.

          • Carbon500 says:

            MF: this might also interest Binidon:
            https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mponeng_Gold_Mine
            It’s a gold mine in South Africa, and two and a half miles down the temperature is 60 degreesC.
            Similar figures are given for the Tautona mine, also in South Africa, where the rock face temperature at a similar depth is 60C.

    • Stephen P Anderson says:

      Of course its water vapor.

    • Entropic man says:

      Lots of things are changing together. Temperature, CO2, water vapour, fossil fuel burn, population, economic growth, agricultural production, irrigation.

      You could show a significant correalation between any two of those eight.

      But as has been pointed out elsewhere correalation does not prove causation. Wearing of shorts increases in Summer, but shorts do not cause Summer.

      Cause and effect is another matter. You can be reasonably confident that Summer causes shorts.

      Talk to a physicist and he will tell you that absolute humidity, the mass of water vapour the atmosphere can hold, increases by 7% per degree C and the WV GHE increases with it.

      Interactions betweenWV and climate get very complicated, but the bottom line is that warmer conditions cause greater WV. It is uncommon to see spontaneous incresases in WV producing increases in temperature. In the argot, temperature is the forcing and water vapour is the feedback.

      It might be possible to see increased WV and increased temperature locally over an irrigated area, but irrigation does not cover enough ground to have a worldwide effect.

  77. Dan Pangburn says:

    Both temperature and water vapor are both forcing and feedback. The water vapor increase since 1960 is about twice what it would be from temperature increase alone. Water vapor increase is self-limiting. Since 2002 CO2 has increased by 40% of the increase 1800-2002 while the temperature has been essentially flat except for the el Nino that peaked in Jan 2016 and later smaller ones which are still playing out.
    https://pbs.twimg.com/media/D2TdkhoVYAAd_g4.jpg

    WV increase is measured and reported by NASA/RSS. Rough calcs show their 1.69% increase since about 1990 agrees (close enough) with NCEPR1, 1.63% & NCEPR2, 1.4%. The slope increase in temperature and WV both correlate with slope increase in water use which is about 86% irrigation.

  78. Bindidon says:

    Bart

    “The problem is with GISS, which uses several dodgy nudges to mask the slowdown at the turn of the century, which is readily apparent in just about every other major data set.”

    Bart, this slowdown I have seen only in land-only time series. Thus I suppose that the problem’s origin is in the SST.

    But let us come back to global data, and compare e.g. GISS-LOTI wiht Had-CRUT4 global mean for the incriminated period (1998-2012):

    http://tinyurl.com/yysduplr

    You clearly see here how riddiculous is your claim about this slowdown being “readily apparent in just about every other major data set”.

    While GISS-LOTI shows for this period an estimate of 0.11 C / decade, Had-CRUT4 shows 0.06.

    BUT… look at the graph, and you will see that this doubled GISS estimate is solely due to the fact that their temperature measurements are a bit lower than Had-CRUT’s for a couple of years!

    As for “any other major data set,” I suspect you’re using that phrase to deftly hide your own preference for UAH.

    Look at the same graph as above, to which UAH6.0 andd RSS4.0 were added:

    http://tinyurl.com/y44k6xrk

    It is undeniable that UAH here is the outlier.

    • Stephen P Anderson says:

      It is undeniable that UAH here is the outlier.

      Translation: “We haven’t been able to affect that data set yet.”

      • Stephen P Anderson says:

        It is immaterial. AGW has been falsified.

        • bdgwx says:

          Actually the UAH dataset is consistent with AGW and the GHE hypothesis. They have recorded +0.13/decade in the lower troposphere and -0.23/decade in the stratosphere.

          • Mike Flynn says:

            b,

            This GHE hypothesis would be the one that you can’t actually lay your hands on, just at the moment, would it? No wonder. It doesn’t exist, which is why anybody pretending it does is either a fool or a fraud.

            But hey, if Michael Mann can pretend to be a Nobel Prize-winner, and Gavin Schmidt can pretend to be a climate scientist, claiming that a testable (or any rational) GHE hypothesis exists is small potatoes by comparison.

            Join the slavering pack of fools tagging along after the pack of bearded balding bumbling buffoons, if you wish. At least you won’t have to waste your limited mental resources thinking. Just believe. You don’t need facts if you have faith.

            Cheers.

          • Bart says:

            Not a very convincing “consistency”. One will be greater than the other. The outcome is 50/50. Are we to wreck our economy based on a coin toss?

        • Bindidon says:

          bdgwx

          Yes, I remember this article written by R.E. Swanson.

          One thing is for sure: one day one of the two mismatched parties will win and the other one will lose…

        • E. Swanson says:

          bdgwx, Thanks for posting the link to my JTECH report, which I did not known had become open for all to read. I presume that you also saw my later presentation from the 2017 AGU meeting, which was an update to the JTECH paper using more recent versions of the data sets. As Bindidon notes, it should be obvious that the differences between these data sets must be resolved if they are to be relied on to assess what’s going on with the Earth’s climate.

        • bdgwx says:

          swanson, I believe the AMS journals provides open access for anything older than 2 years. It likely became open only recently.

          And yes. I had a hunch that this was your publication 🙂

          And in case my point wasn’t obvious I’ll make it now for others. One explanation for UAH’s divergence from multiple datasets including conventional and reanalysis in addition to the comparisons that were made in the publication could be because the scientific consensus “haven’t been able to affect that data set yet.” Or…maybe…just maybe, it is because there is a more rational, objective, and technical reason why it is the outlier and which does not need to invoke conspiracy. I’m just saying…

          • E. Swanson says:

            bdgwx wrote:

            Or…maybe…just maybe, it is because there is a more rational, objective, and technical reason why it is the outlier and which does not need to invoke conspiracy.

            As I pointed out in my AGU paper, Figure 6, the differences in the respective TMT time series appeared most profound in the MSU portion of the respective series. UAH was warmer than RSS (Fig 6.a) at the beginning of the series and UAH was also warmer than NOAA STAR (Fig 6.b) then. However, RSS was warmer than NOAA STAR (Fig 6.c) during that same time period. Since the UAH series begins at a higher brightness temperature, the trend over the entire period turns out to be less than either RSS or NOAA STAR.

            What I understand from reading Spencer and Christy’s paper describing their UAH version 6 is that they treat the MSU data with a different approach than that which they used for the AMSU data. I suppose this may be one reason for the divergence. The apparent difference between RSS and NOAA STAR is another matter. Then too, one must also be aware that UAH and RSS compute their LT or TLT differently, with UAH combining their “TP” product, which includes MSU channel 3, in a theoretical combination. The early MSU 3 data suffered several problems, which is the reason S & C didn’t use it after 1992 when they began to promote their TLT.

            Of course, I have no clue about the actual technical reason(s) for these differences, besides than the NOAA 9 warm target question…

    • Bart says:

      UAH is not the outlier. GISS is. You’ve just biased the outcome by choice of starting date and offsets:

      http://tinyurl.com/y2ybq2qd

      • Bindidon says:

        Bert

        “Youve just biased the outcome by choice of starting date and offsets:”

        NO. I did not for the starting date, let alone for the offset.

        1. The starting date refers to the hiatus periode as defined by IPCC.

        2. The offsets are exactly the mean of the respective values within UAH’s reference period. That is the reason why there is no offset applied to the UAH record in my WFT graph.

        Feel free to download GISS-LOTI and Had-CRUT4, enter the data into a spreadsheet, and you will soon understand how wrong you are.

        If there is anything arbitrary in your graph, then it is CERTAINLY your choice for the offsets!

        Here is your graph, with the correct displacements:

        https://tinyurl.com/y6drazlz

        Wether you choose 1998-2012 or 2000-present: where is the difference?

        And for a more accurate comparison, you should filter out all these small deviations from the means which hide what really happens:

        https://tinyurl.com/y24ccyjv

        If there is an outlier in the surface corner, then it is NOAA land, which for 1979-present shows an estimate of 0.29 C / decade, while GISS accurately stays near the averaged station data (0.22 C GISS vs. 0.21 C stations).

        This cannot be shown here because Paul Clark did not add NOAA into his datasets. I’m too busy today to generate a graph out of Libre Office wiht my downloaded data.

  79. Stephen P Anderson says:

    As of March 2013 Natuarl CO2 emissions are 210gt/yr, anthropogenic emissions 8gt/yr

    • Stephen P Anderson says:

      1ppm=2.13 gt

      Anthropgenic emissions = 3.8ppm CO2

      Natural emissions= 98.6ppm CO2

      Residence time must by definition be only about 4 years so total anthropogenic contribution to current CO2 level is only about 16ppm.

      • Stephen P Anderson says:

        If all anthropogenic emissions were to be stopped essentially sending the world into the dark ages, CO2 level would still be about 400ppm with current natural emission rates within 4 years.

        • Stephen P Anderson says:

          This narrative that the carbon dioxide increase from 250 to 400ppm has been the result of fossil fuel emission has been a false, unscientic, unmathematical claim.

    • Svante says:

      Our emissions can affect climate for millenia. Try it out here:
      https://tinyurl.com/y54wl3hv

      Courtesy of the unmathematical/unscientific/leftist University of Cicago.

      • Stephen P Anderson says:

        Just logically you have to realize that model is wrong. If you understand just basic mathematics you have to realize that. CO2 can’t have the residence time(s) they claim. If the total emissions rate is roughly 100ppm and the equilibrium level in the atmosphere is a little over 400ppm you have to be able to logically deduce that the residence time can’t be decades or centuries. That’s like 5th grade math.

        • Stephen P Anderson says:

          Anthropogenic CO2 isn’t some how magically different than a natural CO2 molecule. It gets absorbed the same way.

          • Stephen P Anderson says:

            Intuitively you have to realize the equilibrium level or equilibrium ratio of anthropogenic CO2 to natural CO2 in the atmosphere is in the exact same ratio as its emission ratio of approximately 4%-5th grade level math folks.

      • Carbon500 says:

        ‘Our emissions can affect climate for millenia’ – and your link gives us the ‘model output over 100 years’
        Yeah, right……

        • Svante says:

          Try setting 10000 years at the bottom and give it a 240 Gton spike at the top left (tab out to trigger the calculation).

          Or give it 1000 Gton and see how much is left after a million years.

  80. Entropic man says:

    Stephen P Anderson

    Please revise yourcarbon cycle.

    https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Carbon_cycle#/media/File%3ACarbon_cycle.jpg

    The majority of free carbon in the system cycles between the atmosphere/ocean and the biosphere.

    CO2 is released by respiration and decay, resides in the atmosphere for an average of four years and is then taken up again by photosynthesis and remains as biomass until it is respired again.

    Since CO2 uptake by photosynthesis and release by respiration balance the CO2 concentration is not affected.

    Along comes the Industrial Revolution. Humanity burn fossil fuels and make cement, releasing CO2 which has been out of circulation for millions of years and increasing the amount of CO2 in circulation.

    Now the system is out of balance. Some of the CO2 excess is absorbed by the oceans(thank you, Henry’s Law) and some by the biosphere ( the greening ofthe planet) but about half of what we produce goes to increase the concentration in the air.

    • Stephen P Anderson says:

      Now the system is out of balance. Some of the CO2 excess is absorbed by the oceans(thank you, Henry’s Law) and some by the biosphere ( the greening ofthe planet) but about half of what we produce goes to increase the concentration in the air.

      If about half of what we produce goes to increase the concentration in the air then why would that be a problem? Half of 8 is 4gtc which is 1.88ppm. A four year residence time gives 7.6ppm. Turn that off and CO2 is still at 402ppm. With your scenario we’re only contributing 2%. Doesn’t fit what’s actually happening but if that’s what you want to believe go ahead.

    • Mike Flynn says:

      Em,

      You wrote –

      “Now the system is out of balance.”

      Oh dear, oh dear. What a pity. I suppose the average dimwit doesn’t realise that the only time the “system” is balanced is when the surface temperature reaches a point where it is not changing – that is , energy in is equal to energy out.

      This odd phenomenon usually occurs twice a day – when the temperature reaches its maximum, and again when it reaches the minimum. How does CO2 (or the lack thereof) change the character and number of the inflection points?

      The Earth has cooled over the last four and half billion years, which would indicate to anyone except an aforementioned member of the dimwit class, that energy out vastly exceeded energy in – in spite of the considerable energy emitted by the Sun over that period.

      Keep at it. I’m sure you can dig into your pseudoscientific jargon bag, and extract a few more examples of sublimely irrelevant and nonsensical statements.

      Cheers.

  81. Stephen P Anderson says:

    Now the system is out of balance. Some of the CO2 excess is absorbed by the oceans(thank you, Henrys Law) and some by the biosphere ( the greening ofthe planet) but about half of what we produce goes to increase the concentration in the air.

    If about half of what we produce goes to increase the concentration in the air then why would that be a problem? Half of 8 is 4gtc which is 1.88ppm. A four year residence time gives 7.6ppm. Turn that off and CO2 is still at 402ppm. With your scenario we’re only contributing 2%. Doesn’t fit what’s actually happening but if that’s what you want to believe go ahead.

  82. Stephen P Anderson says:

    Damn thing’s being finicky today.

  83. Stephen P Anderson says:

    E-man,

    dr/dt=E-A

    E=Ea + En

    A=r/T (T=1/e residence time)

    Propose another model.

    • Entropic man says:

      Steven P Anderson

      I think you confusing residence time and lifetime.You keep talking about residence time when you should be using lifetime.

      Residence time is the time an average individual CO2 molecule spends in the atmosphere before being absorbed by the ocean or the biosphere. This is estimated between 5 and 11 years.

      Both the ocean and the biosphere are in equilibrium, returning CO2 molecules to the atmosphere at the same rate that they are absorbing. Residence time is not relevant to long term changes in CO2 concentration.

      Lifetime is the time taken for a pulse of extra CO2 to be permanently removed by weathering and/or sediment formation. TThis pulse might come from vulcanism,(eg the PETM or the Permean extinction). It might also come from industrial emissions.The lifetime for CO2 is somewhere between 10,000 and 100,000 years.

      For example, you say

      ” half of what we produce goes to increase the concentration in the air then why would that be a problem? Half of 8 is 4gtc which is 1.88ppm. A four year residence time gives 7.6ppm. ”

      That is fine as far as it goes. We release 8gtC. Half of that stays in the atmosphere, 4gtC or 1.88ppm. That is roughly the observed annual rate of increase. After four years the increase becomes 7.6ppm. Again correct.

      BUt! Those extra CO2 molecules are now in the system. Exchanges between atmosphere, ocean and biosphere take place as usual, following the existing residence time, but exchange does not make them disappear. That 1.88ppm/year of added CO2 is not disappearing, it is accumulating.

      • Mike Flynn says:

        Em,

        Unfortunately, you are wasting your time. CO2 heats nothing. Therefore, trying to pretend that “residence time” or “lifetime” of CO2 is relevant, is just more meaningless pseudoscientific climatological jargon.

        If you had a description of the GHE which included some reference to CO2 and temperature rises, it would be a good start. It might lead to a testable GHE hypothesis, which might, once again, involve things like CO2 concentrations, temperature and so on.

        Who gives a toss about your attempts to turn fantasy into fact? What about that most important so called “greenhouse gas” – water? What is its “lifetime” or “residence time”? I suppose blathering about water doesn’t sound nearly as sciencey as blathering about CO2.

        Keep talking nonsense. Maybe you can rise within the pseudoscientific climatological cult. It seems to be populated with a goodly assortment of fakers, bumblers and wannabes. Fake Nobel Prize winners, pretend scientists – you might fit right in.

        Maybe you can tell someone how increasing the amount of CO2 or H2O between the Sun and a thermometer makes the thermometer hotter? By casting special magic spells, while chanting the sacred Manntras?

        What a load of rubbish! Carry on regardless, Em. Take no notice of unbelievers – your deity is mighty, and will lay the skeptics low! (Cue sounds of raucous laughter.)

        Cheers.

      • bdgwx says:

        EM is correct. There is a difference between the residence time of individual molecules and the lifetime for a pulse of CO2.

        The paleoclimate record confirms that pulses happen relatively fast, but atmospheric depletion occurs very slowly. For example, interglacial ascent occur quickly, but the glacial descents take almost 100,000 years before the CO2 is fully depleted to glacial levels.

        In lieu of scrubbing CO2 from the atmosphere the anthroprogenic pulse will likely last thousands and possibly even tens of thousands of years.

    • Entropic man says:

      Could you define your terms, please.

      If you are trying to derive long term rates of CO2 concentration change from residence time, youmight like to read my 5.59pm comment and rewrite your model.

      • Stephen P Anderson says:

        E-man,

        The residence time can’t be between 5 and 11 years. If the yearly emission is 98.6ppm + 3.8 ppm = 102.4 ppm then a 5 year residence time would give an atmospheric equilibrium of 510ppm and an 11 year residence time would give us an equilibrium level of 1122ppm. Since we know from atmospheric measurement at Mauna Loa that equilibrium level is roughly 410ppm, then residence time must be about 4 years. As far as your “lifetime” term I have seen that some people refer to residence time as lifetime and use the term interchangeably, but Salby refers to it as residence time and therefore is what I prefer to use. Any other definition of the term is nonsense.

      • Entropic man says:

        “dr/dt=E-A

        E=Ea + En

        A=r/T (T=1/e residence time)”

        I ask again. What variables do you represent in your model by the letters r, t, E, A, Ea, En and e.

  84. Stephen P Anderson says:

    Residence time is a measure of how fast CO2 approaches its equilibrium level when emission is constant. Residence time equals the average lifetime of molecule. Residence time also equals the time for the “level to adjust to a new equilibrium” level. They are the same thing.

    • bdgwx says:

      Residence time of molecules does not equal the concentration lifetime for a pulse of CO2.

      Remember, an anthroprogenic molecule will typically get exchanged 1–for-1 with a natural molecule in about 5 years. The end result is that the anthroprogenic molecule is no longer in the atmosphere, but the concentration increase is. That doesn’t mean the anthroprogenic molecule disappeared. It just seems that it went somewhere else in the carbon cycle other than the atmosphere where it originally got emitted to. The carbon cycle as a whole still experienced an increase in mass of carbon.

  85. Stephen P Anderson says:

    The point I’m getting at is AGW has been falsified in two ways. (1) Natural CO2 emission evolves according to the time integral of temperature. Temperature level did not change when anthropogenic emission increased after 2002. And, (2) anthropogenic CO2 only contributes about 4% to the equilibrium level.

    • bdgwx says:

      1) Can you post a link to a peer reviewed publication that details how this time integral of temperature model works?

      2) The correct figure is closer to 30%.

    • E. Swanson says:

      SPA, Your logic ignores the massive increase in the rate of emissions of aerosols from the developing nations, particularly China and India. The continuing emissions of aerosols may be resulting in a cooling trend which would negate some or all of the warming from the increase in CO2 during the same time period. Not to forget, the US has been fighting more than 2 wars since 9/11/2001, blasting lots of stuff into the atmosphere as well. Focusing only on the impact of CO2 emissions misses the total picture, IMHO.

      If the CO2/Greenhouse Effect has been falsified, why has there been a continuing decline in Arctic sea-ice minimum extent over the same period? The UAH satellite data isn’t the only measure of climate change.

      • Stephen P Anderson says:

        E. Swanson,

        1) Salby doesn’t claim it hasn’t been warming, in fact the opposite. The warming is the cause of the CO2 increase.

        2) According to Berkley Earth the temperature increase from 1850 to now and CO2 increase are synonymous. Salby asks how can something that is 1% of the energy budget be responsible for 100% of the warming?

        • Stephen P Anderson says:

          Also, there were no aerosols during all this rise? SYNONYMITY?

        • E. Swanson says:

          SPA, You use the word “synonymous”. I think that you intended to use synchronous. The increase in CO2 has followed the exponential increase in fossil fuel consumption since 1850, it’s not linear, which it’s been said to be the change in global temperature.

          Besides, I suspect that you don’t grasp the enormity of what China has been doing. It’s claimed that the cement production by China between 2011 and 2013 amounted to more than the amount used by the US for the entire 20th century. China is the number 1 consumer of coal as well. All those reports of smog in China should give you an idea of their aerosol emissions, which have increased drastically as a result.

          You are also forgetting the the apparent cooling seen after WW II, which appeared to reverse after the US and Europe began to control sulfate emissions. China’s rapid growth in coal fired electric generation, recently bringing online a new plant every week or so, means more low elevation SO2 emissions. China is the world’s largest manufacturer of automobiles and their fleet represents new consumption, since they have only just begun to have enough wealth for individuals to own cars.

  86. Entropic man says:

    Stephenson P Anderson

    There are two relatively recent events which your model should describe.

    1) The onset of the Holocene warmed the climate by 5C from 9C to 14C in 10,000 years, accompanied by a CO2 rise from 200ppm to 280ppm.

    2) The Industrial Revolution since 1880 raised temperatures from 13.8C to 14.8C and CO2 from 280ppm to 410ppm.

    Please give worked examples showing that your model can explain these changes, to help this poor biologist understand it.

    • Stephen P Anderson says:

      The Industrial Revolution raised temperatures? How did it do that? Show me your math. I’ve already shown you that anthropogenic CO2 could not have caused the CO2 increase. Also, do you have any decadal data on natural CO2 emission?

      • Stephen P Anderson says:

        We have the surveys now on anthropogenic and natural CO2 emission now. And, they are telling us anthropogenic emission hasn’t caused the CO2 increase. Mathematically impossible.

      • Entropic man says:

        That is not what I was asking.

        I had hoped for worked examples showing that your hypothesis can successfully predict the change in CO2 from the change in temperature in my two examples. This is how you test a hypothesis, by showing that it successfully predicts reality.

        I would do the calculation myself, but you have’nt given me enough information.

  87. bdgwx says:

    SAP,

    Where did all of that anthroprogenic carbon go if it didn’t go into the atmosphere?

    What is the source of the 130 ppm of CO2 in the atmosphere?

    What physical process can explain this sudden pulse of CO2 in the atmosphere?

    • Stephen P Anderson says:

      Nice to have intelligent questions by the way. The anthropogenic CO2 goes into the atmosphere, resides there for an average of 4 years and then gets absorbed with all the rest of the CO2. The Souce of the 130ppm CO2 is 96% natural emission and 4% anthropogenic emission. Surface temperature increase causes an increase in natural emission.

      • Stephen P Anderson says:

        BDGWX,

        If natural emission is 210GTC and anthropogenic emission is 8GTC, and absorbers don’t discriminate between natural and anthropogenic CO2, then how can anthropogenic be more than 4% of the equilibrium level of 410ppm?

Leave a Reply