Why 2014 Won’t Be the Warmest Year on Record

October 21st, 2014

Much is being made of the “global” surface thermometer data, which three-quarters the way through 2014 is now suggesting the global average this year will be the warmest in the modern instrumental record.

I claim 2014 won’t be the warmest global-average year on record.

..if for no other reason than this: thermometers cannot measure global averages — only satellites can. The satellite instruments measure nearly every cubic kilometer – hell, every cubic inch — of the lower atmosphere on a daily basis. You can travel hundreds if not thousands of kilometers without finding a thermometer nearby.

(And even if 2014 or 2015 turns out to be the warmest, this is not a cause for concern…more about that later).

The two main research groups tracking global lower-tropospheric temperatures (our UAH group, and the Remote Sensing Systems [RSS] group) show 2014 lagging significantly behind 2010 and especially 1998:


With only 3 months left in the year, there is no realistic way for 2014 to set a record in the satellite data.

Granted, the satellites are less good at sampling right near the poles, but compared to the very sparse data from the thermometer network we are in fat city coverage-wise with the satellite data.

In my opinion, though, a bigger problem than the spotty sampling of the thermometer data is the endless adjustment game applied to the thermometer data. The thermometer network is made up of a patchwork of non-research quality instruments that were never made to monitor long-term temperature changes to tenths or hundredths of a degree, and the huge data voids around the world are either ignored or in-filled with fictitious data.

Furthermore, land-based thermometers are placed where people live, and people build stuff, often replacing cooling vegetation with manmade structures that cause an artificial warming (urban heat island, UHI) effect right around the thermometer. The data adjustment processes in place cannot reliably remove the UHI effect because it can’t be distinguished from real global warming.

Satellite microwave radiometers, however, are equipped with laboratory-calibrated platinum resistance thermometers, which have demonstrated stability to thousandths of a degree over many years, and which are used to continuously calibrate the satellite instruments once every 8 seconds. The satellite measurements still have residual calibration effects that must be adjusted for, but these are usually on the order of hundredths of a degree, rather than tenths or whole degrees in the case of ground-based thermometers.

And, it is of continuing amusement to us that the global warming skeptic community now tracks the RSS satellite product rather than our UAH dataset. RSS was originally supposed to provide a quality check on our product (a worthy and necessary goal) and was heralded by the global warming alarmist community. But since RSS shows a slight cooling trend since the 1998 super El Nino, and the UAH dataset doesn’t, it is more referenced by the skeptic community now. Too funny.

In the meantime, the alarmists will continue to use the outdated, spotty, and heavily-massaged thermometer data to support their case. For a group that trumpets the high-tech climate modeling effort used to guide energy policy — models which have failed to forecast (or even hindcast!) the lack of warming in recent years — they sure do cling bitterly to whatever will support their case.

As British economist Ronald Coase once said, “If you torture the data long enough, it will confess to anything.”

So, why are the surface thermometer data used to the exclusion of our best technology — satellites — when tracking global temperatures? Because they better support the narrative of a dangerously warming planet.

Except, as the public can tell, the changes in global temperature aren’t even on their radar screen (sorry for the metaphor).

Of course, 2015 could still set a record if the current El Nino ever gets its act together. But I’m predicting it won’t.

Which brings me to my second point. If global temperatures were slowly rising at, say, a hundredth of a degree per year and we didn’t have cool La nina or warm El Nino years, then every year would be a new record warm year.

But so what?

It’s the amount of temperature rise that matters. And for a planet where all forms of life experience much wider swings in temperature than “global warming” is producing, which might be 1 deg. C so far, those life forms — including the ones who vote — really don’t care that much. We are arguing over the significance of hundredths of a degree, which no one can actually feel.

Not surprisingly, the effects on severe weather are also unmeasurable …despite what some creative-writing “journalists” are trying to get you to believe. Severe weather varies tremendously, especially on a local basis, and to worry that the average (whatever than means) might change slightly is a total misplacement of emphasis.

Besides, once you consider that there’s nothing substantial we can do about the global warming “problem” in the near term, short of plunging humanity into a new economic Dark Age and killing millions of people in the process, its a wonder that climate is even on the list of the public’s concerns, let alone at the bottom of the list.

Ode to Misinterpretations of the Second Law

October 21st, 2014

Inspired by a couple comments from my solar eclipse post.

He said an object that was cold
Could not make something warm still warmer
So he donned his coat, went out the door
To prove the truth of former.

“See?” he said, “the sky is cold”
“and so it cannot warm”
Then back inside he merrily went,
Removing the cold coat he’d worn.


Solar Thursday USA: An Eclipse AND a Massive Sunspot Group

October 20th, 2014

Residents of the eastern U.S. will be in a particularly good location to see a partial solar eclipse which will peak near sunset on Thursday, Oct. 23, and as a bonus the giant sunspot group 2192 should also be visible.

Here’s what sunspot 2192 looks like in recent days as it slowly rotates toward the central portion of the solar disk:

Sunspot 2192 has been pumping out solar flares on a daily basis, and has a good chance of producing an Earth-directed coronal mass ejection (CME) over the next week, which would lead to auroral displays.

As of right now, the best viewing of the eclipse looks like it will be in a general swath from the Upper Plains and Great Lakes (~60% solar disk coverage) through the Midwest and Ohio Valley toward the southeast U.S. The northeast U.S. viewing will depend on how much cloud cover remains from a slowly retreating low pressure system…some breaks in the clouds will allow at least scattered viewing there. Over the western U.S. the eclipse will occur during the afternoon and end before sunset.

Here in north Alabama I’ll be doing a time lapse video of the setting sun, weather permitting, when the partial eclipse will peak at about 40% at sunset.

Here’s an eclipse calculator simulation for your location.

DO NOT view the sun with the naked eye! Advice on methods for safely viewing the sun are provided by Astro Bob at UniverseToday.com.

Dr. Roy’s Earth Today #12: Central Siberian Plateau

October 20th, 2014

Lying mostly north of the Arctic Circle, the Central Siberian Plateau is enjoying sunshine today, but in several weeks the sun will fall below the horizon (click for full-size):

Central Siberian Plateau as seen on 20 October 2014 by the MODIS instrument on NASA's Aqua satellite.

Central Siberian Plateau as seen on 20 October 2014 by the MODIS instrument on NASA’s Aqua satellite.

Winter has gotten off to an early start in Russia, and many forecasters are calling for an unusually cold winter in the Northern Hemisphere. In the above image, lake-effect cloud streets can be seen to be streaming off a few of the larger lakes. According to the GFS forecast model, mid-day temperatures here are running below 0 deg. F.

From Russia, With Cold

October 19th, 2014

Winter has gotten an early start in Russia, with much of the expansive country already covered in snow (even though it’s only mid-October) and temperatures running well below normal.

The immediate future looks worse. The GFS model forecast from last night shows temperatures over the next 7 days running 10 to 20 deg. F below normal, and a rapid buildup of the snowpack (click image for full size, based upon graphics from WeatherBell.com):

GFS 7-day forecast of average temperature departures from normal, and snow depth by the end of the 7 days, ending Sunday, Oct. 26, 2014.

GFS 7-day forecast of average temperature departures from normal (deg. C), and snow depth (inches) by the end of the 7 days, ending Sunday, Oct. 26, 2014.

Individual days and locations are forecast to be 40 deg. F below normal, with some places reaching 40 deg. below zero, more typical of mid-winter.

The very warm spots over the Arctic Ocean are where there is less sea ice cover compared to the 30-year mean (1981-2010).

As reported by The Moscow Times, Russian forecasters like those elsewhere are projecting an unusually cold and snowy winter. Whenever the “Siberian Express” kicks in this winter, it could mean some bitterly cold outbreaks for North America and even the U.S.

Gonzalo: 144 mph Gust Measured on Bermuda

October 18th, 2014

Hurricane Gonzalo moving northeast of Bermuda at 9:15 am ET, Oct. 18, 2014.

Hurricane Gonzalo moving northeast of Bermuda at 9:15 am ET, Oct. 18, 2014.

As predicted, the eye of Hurricane Gonzalo passed directly over Bermuda last night. Most of the island was without power this morning, but crews are already out restoring power…although they said progress will be slow due to widespread damage.

After the calm of the eye passed during the night and hurricane force winds resumed, a wind gust to 144 mph was measured near the airport. The official weather equipment at the airport is reported to be damaged. Most of the home weather stations went offline several hours before the worst of the storm hit the island.

Despite some injuries, Bermuda police report there has been no loss of life. The island was well warned, and building codes in Bermuda are quite strict for withstanding hurricane-force winds.

Here’s an interesting short video taken from the International Space Station as it passed near Gonzalo:

Target, Bermuda: Will Hurricane Gonzalo Rival Fabian?

October 16th, 2014
Color MODIS image of Hurricane Gonzalo, late morning, Oct. 17, 2014.

Color MODIS image of Hurricane Gonzalo, late morning, Oct. 17, 2014 (click for full size).

UPDATE 7 am ET Oct. 18: As was forecast, the eye of Gonzalo passed over Bermuda last night. The highest wind gust I saw reported was 144 mph. Most of the island is without power this morning.

Before the October, 1926 arrival of catastrophic Hurricane Ten (nicknamed Valerian), it was reported that it had been over a hundred years since a hurricane hit Bermuda in October.

That hurricane arrived so quickly (moving at 40 mph) and from an unexpected direction (from almost due west), that the island was unprepared. HMS Valerian was just returning from Cuba, and was within sight of Bermuda with mild weather reported, yet never made it to port because the storm descended on the island so quickly. Most of the crew was lost as the ship sank. An anemometer in the Royal Navy Dockyard measured a 138 mph wind gust before it broke.

The next-to-worst hurricane to hit Bermuda in the last couple centuries was Fabian in 2003. Taking a path similar to Gonzalo is forecast to take as it arrives at the island tomorrow, Fabian produced sustained winds of 120 mph and a measured peak wind gust of 164 mph at an elevated measurement site on a radio tower. Damages were estimated at $300 million, the worst since 1926.

It would take another direct hit like Fabian, and a somewhat higher intensity than is currently forecast (140145130125 mph sustained winds now, 115120 115 mph sustained winds forecast as the eyewall reaches Bermuda this evening) for Gonzalo to rival either of these historic storms. But hurricane intensity fluctuations are notoriously difficult to forecast, and the current forecast path of Gonzalo remains very close to a ďdirect hitĒ which will place the most intense eyewall winds over land.

We will know in the next 8 hours or so. In the meantime, here’s our Gonzalo tracking page, and check out the slideshow of preparations from the Royal Gazette.

The eyewall of Gonzalo is now showing up on the Bermuda radar loop.

Live Updates from BerNews.com

(I’m now deleting off-topic comments…I’ll let the snarky global warming ones pass for now. –RWS)

How Safe is the Air You Breathe in Planes?

October 15th, 2014

sneeze_682_473022a-755805With increasing concerns that Ebola apparently spreads more readily than we were told, I thought it might be useful to mention a little experiment I performed a few months ago. I was on the way to Las Vegas to give climate talks, and I wanted to show how much greater the CO2 content of air is in the confined spaces we share than out in the ambient atmosphere.

Let me say up front I am not a germaphobe. I have flown hundreds of times over the years. I wash my hands a few times a day, but consider some limited exposure to germs to be healthy and necessary to keep our immune systems strong.

But I would wager no one — medical experts, doctors, nurses, or the CDC Director Ė is willing to expose themselves to tiny amounts of sputum from Ebola patients to prove that point.

Iíve always wanted to know just how much of the air in planes is recycled, versus fresh. Itís hard to find an answer to this question. This Wall Street Journal article from a few years ago summarizes several studies that did indeed document increased incidence of illness contracted by recent airline passengers.

I have a good handheld air quality meter that measures the carbon dioxide content of the atmosphere. Humans exhale large concentrations of CO2, so I used the meter on one recent trip to see just how high the CO2 concentration gets on airplanes. The higher the CO2 content, the more you are breathing air that other passengers have exhaled.

Yes, I know the official word is that, unless you are swapping spit with someone who has contracted Ebola, you donít have anything to worry about. But in the very confined space of an aircraft, there is some inadvertent spit-swapping going on, anyway.

And think of all of the surfaces inside the plane that MANY people are touching with unclean hands: Seat headrests along the aisles, overhead luggage compartment latches, air flow nozzles, trays, passing cups and trash, etc.

Oh, and those miniscule rest rooms.

Anyway, to the answer. On two flights — one a large plane, the other small — I measured CO2 concentrations of 1,600 ppm or more (coming out of the nozzles), which is 4 times ambient (400 ppm). In my office building I might measure 700 ppm, late in the afternoon. In small offices with several people confined Iíve measured 1,000 ppm, the point at which some people consider the start of ďreducedĒ air quality.

So, it is true, a greater proportion of air you breathe on an airplane has been exhaled by others than in most other environments you are likely to be exposed to. Itís still hard to say from my measurement of 1,600+ ppm just how much fresh air is mixed in with the air that is recycled by the aircraft ventilation system, but I think the bigger concern is this: that you are in such close proximity to other people in a confined space, you are breathing other peoples air — including tiny aerosols — even before all of the exhaled air gets sucked back into the ventilation system and filtered.

Now, this doesnít mean Iím going to forgo flying…unless many more Ebola cases start showing up which might have occurred through casual contact. I suspect we should know much more in the coming weeks and months.

Hurricane Gonzalo Intensifying North of Puerto Rico

October 14th, 2014

Here’s the latest MODIS color image of Hurricane Gonzalo, currently a 110 mph (Category 2) storm (click image for full-size):

MODIS image of Hurricane Gonzalo mid-day Tuesday, October 14, 2014.

MODIS image of Hurricane Gonzalo mid-day Tuesday, October 14, 2014.

Gonzalo is forecast to strengthen, possibly to a Category 4 storm, before impacting Bermuda later in the week.

Dr. Roy’s Earth Today #11: Dust Over the Arabian Sea

October 14th, 2014

Clouds of dust blow southward out of Pakistan over the Arabian Sea today, as seen in this Terra MODIS satellite image (click for full-size):

Windblown dust over the Arabian Sea on October 14, 2014, as seen by NASA's MODIS instrument on the Terra satellite, October 14, 2014.

Windblown dust over the Arabian Sea on October 14, 2014, as seen by NASA’s MODIS instrument on the Terra satellite, October 14, 2014.