Archive for August, 2015

Hurricane Fred a New Record: Farthest East

Monday, August 31st, 2015

Newly formed Hurricane Fred over the Cape Verde Islands is, as far as I can tell, the farthest east that a hurricane has formed in the Atlantic, based upon modern historical records. It appears to be only the third hurricane to directly impact the Islands.

This color satellite view from the NASA MODIS imager shows an event we might not see again in our lifetimes (click for full size):

Hurricane Fred over the Cape Verde Islands, 31 August 2015.

Hurricane Fred over the Cape Verde Islands, 31 August 2015.

Fred is traveling northwestward and is not expected to impact North America, and should slowly weaken in the next few days as it encounters colder waters.

Summer Snow to Greet Obama on Alaska Climate Trip

Sunday, August 30th, 2015

When President Obama visits Alaska this week to campaign for a new international agreement to fight global warming climate change, Alaska will be experiencing colder than normal weather and forecast summer snows, as seen in this graphic of forecast total snowfall by Friday:

Forecast total snowfall by Friday, Sept. 4, 2015 from the GFS model ( graphic).

Forecast total snowfall by Friday, Sept. 4, 2015 from the GFS model ( graphic).

Besides this latest example of the Gore Effect, the dirty little secret is that the climate is always changing, and what better place to illustrate the role of Mother Nature (not humans) than in Alaska?

Extreme Weather
Alaska weather matches its geography – extreme. Temperatures there have ranged from 100 deg F (in 1915) to 80 below zero F (in 1971). Summer days are so long that they can grow pumpkins weighing over 1,000 lbs. Nevertheless, yearly average temperatures are actually below freezing — even in the warmest years.

Glaciers were Already Retreating Before 1900
The supposed poster child glacier for global warming in Alaska is Mendenhall Glacier…except that it had already retreated one mile by the early 1900s, long before human greenhouse gas emissions could be blamed.

Furthermore, its retreat is uncovering large tree stumps approximately 1,000 years old, coincidentally coinciding with the (naturally-caused) Medieval Warm Period, back when the Vikings were able to farm in Greenland.

Which begs the question: How could it have been warm enough to grow giant trees 1,000 years ago in an area now covered in ice? We don’t know why it was so warm 1,000 years ago—climate scientists don’t like to talk about it because they can’t explain it — but for some reason they are sure that your SUV is causing current warmth.

Alaska’s Recent Warmth is Mostly Due to the Pacific Decadal Oscillation
NOAA’s official average temperature product for Alaska, even after they’ve made innumerable and controversial adjustments, shows cooling from the 1920s to the late 1970s, then sudden warming associated with the Great Climate Shift of 1977:

NOAA official Alaska average annual temperatures, (Aug. to July) through July 2015 (NCDC Climate at a Glance).

NOAA official Alaska average annual temperatures, (Aug. to July) through July 2015 (NCDC Climate at a Glance).

This shift was due to a natural reversal of the Pacific Decadal Oscillation, a 60 year cycle which affects the atmospheric steering currents in Alaska, determining whether cold polar air or warm Pacific air tends to win out as the two air masses continually battle for control over Alaska weather.

Alaskans are used to tremendous extremes in weather throughout the year. The tree stump evidence by itself suggests it was warmer there 1,000 years ago than today.

Yet, President Obama will no doubt wax eloquent about how all weather and glacier changes in Alaska (1) have been brought on by humans, and (2) are bad. I’m sure this is what’s taught in schools now, and many will believe it.

But don’t you believe it.

Too Much Cotton Leads to Meltdown

Thursday, August 27th, 2015

no-kangaroo-sock-puppetsI try to be patient with folks. Give them the benefit of the doubt. I have allowed just about any kind of comments to be posted (and remain posted) on this blog in the name of free and open debate.

But I am beginning to fear for the emotional health of myself and others.

One of our avid commenters from down under, Doug Cotton, has overstayed his welcome. Doug has a maddening adeptness at pushing his own view of the physical universe, erecting strawman arguments and challenges faster than a random number generator on a supercomputer. He belittles others who do not agree with him.

He is on continual output mode, impervious to reason, shedding physical laws like water off a platypus’s back.

Doug has made up many email addressess, names, and has posted from many IP addresses as he circumvents bloggers’ attempts to restrict him. He has already been banned from most climate blogs. A humorous post by Anthony Watts over a year ago (A Critical Mass of Cotton) will give you some idea of what we have had to put up with over the years.

I have tried to restrict him, but he keeps returning. I have automated restrictions on dozens of screen names, email addresses, and IP addresses.

Yes, Doug, I realize that we are a bunch of dolts who have not been ordained with the secrets of the universe the way that you have been. Maybe you should put your efforts into your own blog, and let your followers congregate there for your sermons on how gravity explains temperature.

Now, lest some people fear this will be the end of Doug on Dr. Roy’s site, fear not: Doug will not be going away…

What WILL be happening is I will be a little more proactive about deleting every comment I see from Doug. Since he sometimes uses fake names, I won’t always be successful. So, you should stay alert for his nuggets of wisdom before they disappear.

After all, I have nothing better to do with my time.

New Evidence Regarding Tropical Water Vapor Feedback, Lindzen’s Iris Effect, and the Missing Hotspot

Monday, August 17th, 2015

As part of a DOE grant we are testing climate models against satellite observations, particularly regarding the missing “hotspot” in the tropics, that is, the expected region of enhanced warming in the tropical mid- and upper troposphere as the surface warms. Since 1979 (the satellite period of record), it appears that warming in those upper layers has been almost non-existent, despite some surface warming and increases in low-level humidity.
For years I have claimed that the missing hotspot could be evidence of neutral or even negative water vapor feedback, which would also help explain weaker than expected surface warming.

Climate modelers are all but certain that water vapor feedback is positive. I have discussed elsewhere (e.g. here) how that might not be the case, even as lower atmospheric water vapor increases, and it’s related to how precipitation efficiency might change with warming leading to drying of the troposphere above the boundary layer. This is also part of Lindzen’s “Iris Effect”. While water vapor at the lowest altitudes over the ocean is strongly tied to surface temperature, free-tropospheric humidity is controlled by precipitation microphysics, and we have little information on how that changes with warming.

So, I’ll get right to the subject of this post. We have analyzed 11 years of water vapor channel (183.3 GHz) data from the AMSU-B instrument on the NOAA-18 satellite, and compared it to the mid-tropospheric temperature data from AMSU channel 5 (the “MT” channel). Specifically, we computed monthly gridpoint anomalies in all channels over the 11 year period, and regressed the 183.3 GHz brightness temperature (Tb) anomalies against the channel 5 Tb anomalies. This should give information on how much the free troposphere moistens or dries when it changes temperature.

The following image shows the gridpoint regression coefficients for the monthly anomalies during June 2005 through May 2015:

Fig. 1. Gridpoint regression coefficients between the NOAA-18 AMSU-B 183.3 GHz channels Tb and AMSU-A channel 5 Tb during June 2005 through May 2015.

Fig. 1. Gridpoint regression coefficients between the NOAA-18 AMSU-b 183.3 GHz channels Tb and AMSU-A channel 5 Tb during June 2005 through May 2015. Ch. 18 is 183.3+/-1 GHz, generally peaking in the upper troposphere; ch. 19 is 183.3+/-3 GHz peaking in the upper-mid troposphere, and ch. 20 is 183.3 +/-7 GHz peaking in the lower mid-troposphere.

Yellow to red colors are where absolute humidity decreases with warming; green is humidity increasing to roughly maintain constant RH, and blue is where humidity increases even more than constant RH. The signal of El Nino/La Nina is clear over the Pacific Ocean, where the features represent a regional rearrangement of deep convection (upward motion) and subsidence (sinking motion) patterns.

But what really matters for water vapor feedback is the net effect of these patterns…how they average together. The following graph (left panel) shows latitude band averages of the gridpoint regression coefficients in the above imagery, while the right panel shows the same computations from 15 years (2006-2020) from the GFDL ESM2M climate model:

Fig. 2. Zonal averages of the patterns seen in Fig. 1 (left panel), and similar computations made from the GFDL ESM2M climate model (right panel).

Fig. 2. Zonal averages of the patterns seen in Fig. 1 (left panel), and similar computations made from the GFDL ESM2M climate model (right panel).

The vertical dashed lines in Fig. 2 are based upon computations made from the AFGL tropical and mid-latitude radiosonde profile data; values of about 0.2 correspond to constant relative humidity (RH) with warming, while values of ~1.2 correspond to constant specific humidity, q (no water vapor increase). Values over 1.2 would be water vapor (q) actually decreasing with warming, and potentially indicative of negative water vapor feedback.

Note that in the tropical observations portion of the left panel in Fig. 2, all three 183.3 GHz channels (corresponding to different free-tropospheric layers) suggest decreasing water vapor with warming. (I don’t know how cirrus clouds might also be affected, but Lindzen has argued as part of his Iris Effect hypothesis that vapor and cirrus cloud cover should change together, and the 183.3 GHz data are affected somewhat by thick cirrus).
The mid-latitudes seem to be mostly in the realm of positive water vapor feedback, although maybe not constant RH (which is what the models tend to do). It would take more work to determine just what these extratropical humidity channel changes really mean in terms of broadband infrared radiative feedback.

Comparison of these same metrics to CMIP5 climate model data has been slow, since the necessary humidity and temperature profile data have been unavailable from the CMIP5 archive for months. Nevertheless, we were able to download data for two GFDL models (from the GFDL website), and I’m showing one of those in the right panel above, where we used a radiative transfer model to compute the same satellite microwave channels from the model temperature and humidity profiles. Note that in the tropics (say, 25N to 25S) the model tends to keep approximately constant RH when all those latitude bands are taken together.

This is pretty typical behavior for climate models, which are tuned to act this way. The models don’t actually contain the necessary precipitation microphysics, something even their convective parameterizations can’t fix because we really don’t know how detrainment from convection changes with warming anyway. In other words, you can’t parameterize something that you don’t even understand and can’t measure.

One curious clue from the above plots of models versus observations is how the three 183.3 GHz channel curves separate in the tropical observations, but not in the model. This would occur if convection detrains at higher altitudes with warming, with the mid-tropospheric humidity getting depressed even more as that very dry air descends from aloft, while mid-tropospheric detrainment and mixing from convection into the surrounding environmental air decreases.

Presumably, the primary source of variability in the observations is El Nino/La Nina (ENSO), which many climate models do not mimic very well. But the GFDL model we chose to compare to in Fig. 2 also produces very strong ENSO activity, so we think this is a pretty valid comparison between a model and observations.

This is all very preliminary, and we await the CMIP5 archive coming back online again late this month so that we can analyze more models. But if this discrepancy between models and observations holds across most or all models, we might have some important insight into how the models might not be accounting for increasing precipitation efficiency during warming, and in turn why the hotspot hasn’t developed… and why global warming in general is weaker than programmed into the climate models.

Perseid Meteor Shower was Slow, but Colorful

Thursday, August 13th, 2015

Last night I took several hundred photos between 11:30 pm and 4 am trying to catch some Perseid meteors. I only got about 15 bright ones, so I’d say this was not a good year for the Perseids.

But almost every one started out with a blue-green trail as they burned up, for example this one near the Andromeda galaxy (the fuzzy area to the lower right, click image for full-size):

Perseid meteor near the Andromeda galaxy, August 13, 2015. Canon 6D with 16-35 f/4 lens wide open at 16mm, 30 sec exp, ISO800.

Perseid meteor near the Andromeda galaxy, August 13, 2015. Canon 6D with 16-35 f/4 lens wide open at 16mm, 30 sec exp, ISO800.

The blue-green color I’ve seen explained as copper or magnesium or iron or nickel, so I have no idea what to believe. Expert opinion welcome.

Spencer on Varney & Co Talking Obama’s Clean Power Plan

Tuesday, August 11th, 2015

Stuart Varney interviewed me live this morning during Varney & Co on Fox Business…I did not know the specific questions he would ask, so I was kind of winging it:

Ice Amazingly Persists in Hudson and James Bay

Sunday, August 9th, 2015

While the world frets over global warming, sea ice amazingly persists as far south as James Bay in Canada–not much farther north than Maine–as seen in this NASA color satellite image of swirling ice patterns from yesterday, August 8, 2015 (click for full size):

NASA MODIS image of sea ice persisting as far south as James Bay (Canada) on 8 August 2015.

NASA MODIS image of sea ice persisting as far south as James Bay (Canada) on 8 August 2015.

Two weeks ago it was reported that the worst mid-summer ice conditions in 20 years was preventing the routine delivery of supplies by ship in eastern Hudson Bay, and a Canadian ice breaker had to be called in to help.

Spencer on Stossel’s “Science Wars”

Wednesday, August 5th, 2015

My most recent appearance on Stossel is now available on YouTube where I had the opportunity to share my opinions of those great global warming experts Bill Nye (The Science Guy™), Neil DeGrasse Tyson (The Anti-Pluto Guy), and Al Gore (The Politician-Turned-Alarmist Guy).

I always wanted to be bleeped on national TV. 🙂

Color Satellite Shows CA Wildfire Smoke Spreading Over Pacific

Tuesday, August 4th, 2015

The wildfires north of San Francisco are far from contained today, with over 90 sq. miles torched, 9,000 firefighters involved battling the blazes, and 13,000 people ordered evacuated from their homes.

Yesterday afternoon this NASA satellite color image showed the locations of satellite-observed hotspots (red dots) and smoke spreading westward out over the Pacific Ocean (click for full-size):

NASA color imagery from the Aqua satellite showing widespread wildfires over Northern California (remapped into Google Earth).

NASA color imagery from the Aqua satellite showing widespread wildfires over Northern California (remapped into Google Earth).

UAH V6.0 Global Temperature Update for July 2015: +0.18 C

Monday, August 3rd, 2015

NOTE: This is the fourth monthly update with our new Version 6.0 dataset. Differences versus the old Version 5.6 dataset are discussed here.

The Version 6.0 global average lower tropospheric temperature (LT) anomaly for July, 2015 is +0.18 deg. C, down considerably from the June, 2015 value of +0.33 deg. C (click for full size version):

The global, hemispheric, and tropical LT anomalies from the 30-year (1981-2010) average for the last 7 months are:

2015 1 +0.28 +0.40 +0.16 +0.13
2015 2 +0.18 +0.30 +0.05 -0.06
2015 3 +0.17 +0.26 +0.07 +0.05
2015 4 +0.09 +0.18 -0.01 +0.10
2015 5 +0.29 +0.36 +0.21 +0.28
2015 6 +0.33 +0.41 +0.25 +0.46
2015 7 +0.18 +0.33 +0.03 +0.48

Strong July cooling occurred in the Southern Hemisphere extratropics, with a weak drop in the Northern Hemisphere extratropics. The tropics continue to warm with El Nino conditions there.

The global image for July, 2015 should be available in the next several days here.

The new Version 6 files (use the ones labeled “beta2”) should be updated soon, and are located here:

Lower Troposphere:
Lower Stratosphere: