Only 6 States NOT Expecting Snow in the Coming Week

November 11th, 2014 by Roy W. Spencer, Ph. D.

With the spectacular cold event now spreading over much of the contiguous U.S. (and still expected to bring 30 below zero temperatures in Yellowstone Lake, WY tomorrow morning) the snow forecast for the next 8 days shows only 6 states that should miss snow (graphics courtesy of Weatherbell.com, click for full-size):

Forecast 8-day total snowfall by Wed. Nov. 19, 2014.

Forecast 8-day total snowfall by Wed. Nov. 19, 2014.


Those states are South Carolina, Florida, Louisiana, Mississippi, Texas, and Arizona. While it’s still very early, the 10-day forecast shows a potential major snowstorm for the mid-Atlantic and Northeast states late next week.

The 7-day average temperature departures from normal really are exceptional in their geographic extent, intensity, and persistence, with widespread 15-25 deg F below normal temperatures…averaged over 7 days:

Forecast 7-day average temperature departures from normal, ending Wednesday Nov. 19, 2014.

Forecast 7-day average temperature departures from normal, ending Wednesday Nov. 19, 2014.


Some locations in Montana, Wyoming and Colorado will have temperatures ranging 50 to 60 deg. F below their seasonal norms in the next couple of days.

It will be interesting to see if this month ends up being one of the coldest Novembers on record for the U.S.


116 Responses to “Only 6 States NOT Expecting Snow in the Coming Week”

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  1. Mark Johnson says:

    So Hawaii is expecting snow?

    • Roy Spencer says:

      No, I’m not including Hawaii. It’s like a whole other country. 😉

      • SomeDude says:

        SCORE!

        …but… to your point, I would actually call The People’s Republic of California and The Democratic Republic of New York foreign countries as well. IJS

        • ChrisGC says:

          Please try and keep in mind that not nearly all of us in Klownifornika are liberal, or believe in glowBULL warming.
          Many of us are well aware that our current drought situation is NOT the result of glowBULL warming, but is rather more indicative of the state’s normal climate as has been shown by paleoclimatologists for some time now.
          What the liberal intelligentsia here needs to realize is that there have been known periods of severe drought here that lasted for as long as 200 years or more!
          In the meantime I hope they have all purchased their long johns, parkas, and mukluks so they don’t freeze their silly behinds off this winter!

        • Gregg says:

          Add to that list The People’s Republic of NJ. Just cause we have a RINO for Guv, doesn’t mean we’ve shed the shackles of years of Democrat bureaucratic abuses.

        • Hope Spencer says:

          And to add to that, you might be happy to know that not everyone in NY is liberal. Manhatten and the 5 boroughs are but the rest of us upstate keep getting our votes cancelled out.

          • ItsMe says:

            Just like Washington state. I think there’s something in the water in the western half of the state.

          • mike says:

            why don’t you secede? Is it because NYC taxes pay for most of your public services while you get on the internet to complain about people wanting handouts?

        • Ray says:

          Actually, if the federal Government followed the Constitution, we would have 50 separate and independent countries with a small Federal Government handling foreign policy, roads etc.

      • Tom Maguire says:

        And a wonderful country it is! But for the pedants, another clue was hidden in the lead sentence:

        “With the spectacular cold event now spreading over much of the **contiguous** U.S….”

      • BJGL says:

        the first line of the article says “contiguous states”. They aren’t talking about Hawaii. No score.

      • Whut degrees do you get and get them from?

        Did higher, or high, school limit ones entry to more higher, or higherist, fields of schools to pick when you decided to pick one for yourself?

        In tenneesseee weve seen temps low as 20 before and many lost their battles.

        What would you say, Sir??

        thanx

      • Fonzarelli says:

        “It’s like a whole other country”

        Revisiting the “birther” issue, Dr. S.?

      • D Price says:

        It said the contiguous U.S. aka the lower 48

    • km says:

      So what about my state of California? Are we expecting snow?

    • Greg says:

      DUDE. Hawaii is NOT a state. Google it. HAHAHA. You must be an idiot.

    • Chuck says:

      Actually the island of Hawaii gets snow a few times a year. Specifically on Mauna Loa and Mauna Kea and Maui gets snow on Haleakala.

    • Bob K says:

      I believe the word “contiguous” explains why Hawaii is not included.

      • pbyron says:

        Bob, you’re correct. I can’t believe there are people out there who don’t know Hawaii is a state and that they don’t know what contiguous means. I ask – What is the other non-contiguous state? Bob, you don’t have to answer but I’d love to see what others come up with.

    • rah says:

      Read that Hawaii already has snow on some of it’s higher peaks.

    • TheSitRep says:

      I live on the Big Island, and yes we get snow every year on top of Mauna Kea, it is at 13,600 feet alt.

    • Dana says:

      Hawaii gets snow smart-guy. Not at sea level but on its high volcanoes.

    • Jeff Roe says:

      Believe it or not it actually does snow in Hawaii, wise guy.

      The name is Mauna Kea or White Mountain, from its undersea base of -19,000 feet to the wind-swept peaks of 13,796 feet, it’s the world’s highest mountain! It offers some of the world’s highest skiing. This massive extinct volcano is blessed with the finest snow in the world, opening almost 100 square miles of ski able terrain. At this latitude the conditions are spring like; the snow is sugar corn. We call it ‘Pineapple Powder’.

      http://www.hawaiiinfoguide.com/hawaii_skiing.htm

    • MissaJim says:

      Actually, Hawai’i can get snow on the top of Mauna Kea. Both it and Mauna Loa are over 13,700′ high.

    • Keith says:

      Actually, it does snow in Hawaii sometimes – this is from last year:
      http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2013/11/13/snow-hawaii_n_4270460.html

    • Kevin says:

      Last time I was there Hawaii had snow. People would ski the mountain in the morning, Go Beach in the afternoon. I saw it on the helicopter tour, then we flew over one of the vents of the volcano.

    • ched says:

      There is usually snow on Mona Kea, it’s up at 13,800 feet after all, almost as high as Washington’s Mount Rainier.

    • DaveC says:

      Hawaii has a unique position – I suggest visiting Mauna Kea.

    • pat s says:

      the volcanic mountains on the big Island of Hawaii get snow several times a year.

    • Mark says:

      Hawaii gets snow 12 months out of the year.

    • Don Perry says:

      The article begins with,” spreading over much of the contiguous U.S.”. Assume the article contents about snow also are talking about the contiguous states.

    • deimos says:

      Mauna Kea, at 13,796 ft, the highest point in Hawaii get snow often year round.

    • Bud Wood says:

      Yes, Hawaii has one of the highest mountains in the USA. It will be unusual for snow not to drop on the peak of Manu Loa this time of year.

  2. Really? says:

    Really? November is not a year.

  3. William O. B'Livion says:

    “””It will be interesting to see if November ends up being one of the coldest years on record for the U.S.”””

    s/coldest years/coldest months/ ?

  4. Vern Shotwell says:

    Yes, of course. Hawaii has glaciers!
    http://www.mauna-a-wakea.info/maunakea/A3_glaciers.html

  5. Americanman2012 says:

    Climate change has been here for millions of years, not an issue, the stupidity of Man causing all this climate change is spin BS for another bogus tax scheme to redistribute wealth.
    Carbon Tax is the governmental red meat for the wolves.
    CO2 is the life line of growing plants. The biggest crop yields have helped feed more people with an increase of CO2 levels.
    The World Order, wants to control every freedom of humanity.
    Water , health, self defense, land use, speech, travel, sex, death. More government workers are feeding off tax money ever.

    The poor are kept, and held back from being independent.

    The New World Order’s agenda is to save the planet for the elite wealthy, by culling (killing off 80 % of the world population) the human expendable population.

  6. Paul says:

    Since the East is only slightly below normal and the West and Southwest is above normal the extreme cold is only affecting about 1/4 of the population.

  7. Hello Hello says:

    Seven with Hawaii

    And is Alaska getting snow? You never know….

  8. Linda Swain says:

    Where is global warming when you need it?

  9. Joe says:

    Hawaii is not a state

    November is a year.

    What do they teach you in Phd School? Duh.

    • Kayleigh says:

      “With the spectacular cold event now spreading over much of the CONTIGUOUS U.S.”

      Look up “contiguous” if you don’t know what it means.

      November being a year was a typo that he corrected. I’m sure you’ve never made a typo.

    • Don Perry says:

      If you want to act like an idiot, I’ll point out your error. The proper abbreviation is PhD, not Phd.

  10. robert jackson says:

    To the Guy who said Hawaii is not a state: Please go back to school, or do a simple search. We learn this in 3rd grade.

    Hawaii is the 50th state.

    I’ve lived here 25 years and can say it is also the most beautiful ‘state’.

    FYI – yes, it snows on the Big Island. you can actually snow ski or snow board, then drive down to the bottom of Mauna Kea and go to beach on the same day.

    • Roy Spencer says:

      …which my wife and I have done. Went from 2 ft of snow On Mauna Kea to the beach watching whales in about an hour or so as I recall. Visited the NOAA CO2 monitoring site on Mauna Loa. Awesome trip.

  11. Aaron S says:

    I am curious if you can you determine do these events represent net cooling for their duration at a larger scale or are they balanced out by compensating warming at high latitudes or elsewhere on the globe? Can you do a global snapshot of temperature for a couple days during several of these? The pattern might say something about the process like if there is deeper ocean heat transferring into or out of the system. Ie is the PDO or some ocean heat cycle actually causing these? We are getting enough of them to evaluate if there is indeed a meaningful pattern.

    • Roy Spencer says:

      Yes, it is mostly compensated for by unusually warm air elsewhere…for instance Alaska and the Arctic. When there is unusually cold air headed south, there has to be warm air elsewhere headed north to replace it.

    • Max Dupilka says:

      Take a look at the forecast for Tuktoyaktuk, in the Canadian Northwest Territories near the Arctic circle. Highs for the end of the week near minus 1C, average high near -17C.

  12. Paul R says:

    Well, we may be getting snow somewhere in Alaska but where I live (southcentral Alaska) we do not have snow and it is about 42 degrees right now. Verrrry niiice. We like global warming (well except for those who just bought a brand new snow machine)!

  13. Arche says:

    Here in Alaska we have HAARP…where do you folks Outside in the Lower 48 (to our brothers in Hawaii: the Mainland) want your snow? Bwahaha!!!

  14. clamperjoe says:

    Great article, thanks. I’m sure when you include my home state of Nevada you are talking about the higher elevations of the Sierra Nevada Range

  15. Chadwick Xavier says:

    Actually – – Hawaii is expecting snow this coming week. Up around 14,000 feet at the Keck Observatory. They’ve already seen some snow there… just not down at the balmy 75-ish beaches around Hilo.

  16. haeroelt bahlzonje says:

    woo hoo! nice and sunny and snow free here in charleston, sc… i’ll be fishing while ya’ll are shoveling.

  17. schm0e says:

    Wow! 51 states are expecting snow!

  18. Otavio Lima says:

    Unlikely there will be snow in Western Washington, as indicated by your map! Cliff Mass’s b;og says, “And colder than normal temperatures with nighttime freezing temperatures in western Washington.” Hardly snow.

    However, I conclude from all the quibbling that you are 99% correct.

    • Roy Spencer says:

      yes, I’ve noticed the models tend to overdo predicted snow in western Washington. I’m sure your local meteorologists know more about that than me.

  19. Reciprocity says:

    ya Rhodeisland is the other non-contiguous state because it is on an island

  20. Hold on there here in Kalitaxia and ogone and washitdown only 20miles inland to the sea is blue also don’t use normal because nothing is normal in the universe but average.

  21. Paul says:

    Apparently, Hawaii is not a state! No snow here.

  22. Jose Ortega says:

    Come to Florida. We have free snow removal.

  23. Kegler299 says:

    Reading the weather is like reading the Bible. Readers of both get their own interpretation.

  24. August says:

    HA HA HA HA, still no precipitation for California….

    RIP Kelly Thomas.

  25. Skool-Ed says:

    There are 57 states.

  26. Richard says:

    Alaska

  27. Thomas says:

    Notice that Hawaii was not mentioned

  28. Lawrence MacIntyre says:

    I am so thankful for Global Warming! Can you imagine what a disasater this would have been without the additional atmospheric heat energy from all the CO2 released from fossil fuels?

  29. Steve McDonald says:

    CNN’s weather is furious that this has happened.
    To find some global warming horror they breathlessly switched the viewers attention Australia.We have the wind blowing off the desert in a few states and that always gives us high temperatures at this time of year.Normal.
    But then they presented a graph showing that the whole the whole country looks like it’s on fire.
    They had these imposed pictures of fires all over the place.
    then the informed the viewers that this is highly unusual.
    If they had done 2 minutes research they would have found out that 33% of our fires occur in October and November.
    It’s a lie anyway.
    There is no fire problem here.

  30. De Paus says:

    And even now you still have a complete moron with the IQ of a turnip in the White House who thinks global warming is a major security issue.

  31. Fonda Gaylord says:

    Please say it ain’t so my friend Roy!! It is a wee bit early for Alabama snow!!
    Thanks for all you do! Please continue to keep us posted.

  32. Patagon says:

    Thats good news for the skiing industry. The actual amount of snowfall is not too large in the next few days (http://www.meteoexploration.com/maproom/snowmapsNAM.php?lang=en) but it is a good beginning. The 8 day forecast remains to be seen, in my experience GFS overestimates precipitation in the medium range.

  33. JR says:

    Ummmm… We had some sleet in the Dallas / Fort Worth metroplex on the night of Nov. 12/13, 2014. I know it is not snow, but it is freezing precipitation.

  34. And yet the Northern Hemisphere mean temperature anomaly as of the morning of November 13 is showing at 0.80 C, with a global anomaly of 0.43. Those numbers are pretty warm, on a ’79-2000 baseline.

    I’d be more interested in Dr. Spencer’s thoughts on how Nuri played into this whole scenario; I note that the area where the cyclone entered the Arctic is currently host to an anomalously warm area nearly as large as the cold area over much of CONUS:

    http://cci-reanalyzer.org/DailySummary/

    That image probably will update, so here’s a screenshot of what it looks like currently:

    http://i1108.photobucket.com/albums/h402/brassdoc/NHtempanomalymap11-13-14.png

  35. ren says:

    By the end of the week dangerous weather in the US. Surface will be frozen by the arctic wind.