Home/BlogEven though it’s still early November, a January-like cold wave just entering Montana and the Dakotas on Sunday will bring 30 below zero temperatures to scattered locations in Montana and Wyoming by Wednesday morning.
The cold will fill the nation’s midsection by mid-week, with no let up in sight. The coldest air to arrive in a series of reinforcing surges is still a week away.
Temperatures are forecast to run 15 to 30 deg. F below normal for at least 5 days over a large portion of the central U.S. starting late in the coming week (graphic courtesy of Weatherbell.com, click to enlarge):
Forecast temperature departures from normal for the five day period Thursday Nov. 13 to Monday Nov. 18, 2014.
On individual days the temperatures will be as much as 50 deg. F below normal for this time of year, which is quite exceptional. The air mass temperature (850 mb, ~5,000 ft. altitude) will be as much as 4.5 standard deviations below normal, which is less than 1 in 100,000 in probability terms.
Doesn’t have the nerve to come to Arizona. The Earp brothers and Doc, you know. Yes, they’re still here. They ride through Benson from time-to-time. Never say much though.
“Doesn’t have the nerve to come to Arizona…” Yes, why do you think that is? hmmm…… These polar vortex’s are all so identical it is like they are created in a spray bottle and applied. These “weather” maps look as if a fence is up blocking the outer edges from receiving all the cold. I have never seen anything like these voretx’s ever in my whole long life. On the line temps vary in some places up to 40 degree’s in the same state! This is not normal and it’s definitely not a cooling planet LOL… it is a partial cooling of parts of the U.S. & Canada is all. Perplexing.
Oh please. You might notice that the Colorado Rockies keep the arctic fronts from spilling over the continental divide. Has always been that way my entire 52 year lifespan in the front range of Colorado.
40 degree temperature swing in the same state…also perfectly normal in the Rockies and intermountain west.
I wonder where some of these People get this stuff. They have no inkling of weather patterns the last 50 years. These vortexs have been happening for many many years. They just happened to be called storm fronts before.
….the global warming kooks are trying to make it look like these weather fronts are something new by using new verbiage.
We didn’t hear anything about polar vortexes until about 2 years ago.
It’s not science if there are new terms or definitions to describe our typical winter weather events.
Funny question was asked in our IRC chat room recently. If greenhouse gases are blamed on cow flatulence (according to Al Gore), do polar bear farts cause Polar Vortexes?
I thought they used to be called Alberta Clippers. Of course, then what were they called in Alberta???
I remember the ‘Polar Vortex’ from the 70’s. What was predicted is larger and larger air masses, & extreme weather events increasing in frequency, and they have.
Climate change deniers are a funny breed, as it should be obvious dumping trillions of tons of chemicals into the atmosphere for 150 years is likely to effect the chemistry of the atmosphere.
They banned Chlorofluorocarbons, & the ozone layer healed up quite a bit.
You know, that Polar Vortex looks suspiciously like what we use to call an Alberta Clipper! Haha!
ALBERTA CLIPPER
A fast moving, snow-producing weather system that originates in the lee of the Canadian Rockies. It moves quickly across the northern United States, often bring gusty winds and cold Arctic air.
Guess the term ‘Polar Vortex’ sounds a lot more… Sciency…
And it feeds the notion that this new and fits the crisis mentality of the hopeful warmists…
You nailed it perfectly! Since when does a cold front become a polar vortex? I’ve lived in Minnesota for 40+ years and only heard about a polar vortex last year. Sounds like global warming gibberish to me. Let’s create a problem when it’s just normal weather.
Thanks, but how does a polar vortex sound like global warming gibberish? Polar & warming are opposites?? Oh, and it’s NOT normal weather no way. Something is definitely wrong yes. Global warming is a globe warming. Polar vortex is an area of cold polar air. Climate change is the only description that semi fits. When a climate that is supposed to have seasons no longer has those seasons, then yes – that is climate change. The planet has many climates, not just one. What we are seeing lately is one climate trying to take place. I saw some scientist guy on Colbert show this past year and he said they had the ability to “control” the temps across the board on the planet. Like using a thermostat to pick the temps wanted anywhere. Wondering if that may be what we are seeing??? His name was two first names…..David Keith or Keith David….. he has a book out too on this subject of “climate change or geo-engineering”. He was most proud to tell about it and said it would only be used as a last resort. Hmmmm.
Exactly!!!
“Alberta Clipper” explains all that’s needed to know what is going to happen. “Polar Vortex” is better if you want a grant to study the phenomenon.
No not “sciency,” but ominous! The only good democrats are dead democrats.
Violent psychopath much? People like you ought to be sent for evaluation.
An Alberta Clipper has nothing to do with the Polar Vortex. The Polar Vortex is an “upper air” system. It occurs when large areas of upper level low pressure usually located over the pole (in this case the North Pole) bulges allowing a chunk of this upper air system to reposition its self south of the Hudson Bay. This allows arctic air to flow south. An Alberta Clipper is a fast moving “surface” low that is guided by the jet stream to dive S.E. through the midwest and off the east coast. Neither system is new, both have been around for ages. The hype about the PV is mostly from the private weather forecasting companies trying to increase business for their products.
growing up in Minnesota and waiting for a school bus in sub zero weather we never said hey Joey look we have another polar vortex on the way. It was more like shite another
f-ing cold front on its way.
Ya, Paul, it’s a polar air mass, not a cold front, but what the hell difference does it make? Yer lips still turn blue waitin’ for the bus. I remember when I was a kid we could barely walk or talk for a couple hours after gettin’ to school. Take care buddy
Well, the fact that you make degrees into a possessive shows just how seriously we should take your comments, which, by the way, are nonsense.
The fact that you cower from the truth and refute nothing shows how serious people should take you….
Gee Hawkeye, what are you? Twelve years old or something? Are you really that disconnected? These arctic fronts invade every year into the Great Basin and Ohio Valley and the northeast, bringing with them temperatures that are starkly different — yes even within the boundaries of the same states. Weather fronts are no respecters of man made boundaries. For the past nineteen years, average temperatures have been falling on a global scale. That is a fact. And having just returned from Italy and having flown over the polar region north of the Labrador Islands in October, I can assure you, that is one of the iciest seas I’ve ever seen. You might want to set aside the media hype and examine the facts. Our globe is in a cooling right now despite some individual glaciers melting. Glaciers are thickening elsewhere and the Antarctic ice sheet is increasing. These changes are not anthropogenic but part of natural cycles that have occurred long before you and I arrived on this planet and will continue to do so long after we’re gone.
If you notice the east / west boundaries of the “vortex” are the Rocky Mountains to the west and the Appalachians to the east, nothing abnormal at all and the southern boundary runs along the upper boundary of the warm Gulf air. where I live in Tennessee, we often get missed by heavy snow because of the mountains around us. And 20-30 degree or more temp swings within the same state is not abnormal either.
Go ahead and chat all you want about polar vortexes, too cold, too snowy, etc.
Who wants to play golf/tennis in the 80 degree weather in Arizona? Tell you what, you come to Mesa, Arizona to visit and I’ll take a percentage off of your initiation fee.
🙂
Well Plenty of you will be up here in summertime. Too hot is the complaint
Well, as one who lived in Benson for a few years, I say the Earp brothers and Doc would agree with me and say “I calculate its time to leave this town” when the observing what goes on there. But yeah, the winters are great.
Weather polar vortex at an altitude of about 17 miles on Tuesday, 11/11/14.
http://earth.nullschool.net/#2014/11/11/1800Z/wind/isobaric/70hPa/orthographic=-102.23,55.36,318
http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/stratosphere/strat_a_f/gif_files/gfs_t70_nh_f00.gif
Sorry 17 km.
Many years ago, seems like another life, I was going to write a fiction story related to the Siberian Express. The idea was that a pair of Snowy Owls with exceptional fantasy powers came in front of the advancing cold, and …
… never mind. Last year Kenn Kaufman authored a non-fiction article for the Audubon Magazine. It is interesting and worth reading. He does mention some unusual weather and lack of sea ice that might be a cause of many sighting of the Owls in eastern North America. However, he writes
“So–why is this happening? So far, we don’t have a complete explanation. . . . – – – . . . We are still working on that question.”
Thus, I can recommend the article.
http://www.audubonmagazine.org/articles/birds/notes-snowy-owl-invasion
Were either of the owls named Hedwig?
A quiet sun increases stratospheric ozone above the poles which warms the stratosphere, pushes the height of the tropopause down and so encourages cold polar air to flow out across middle latitudes more frequently and more intensely.
Such outward flows of polar air also distort the jet stream tracks, push the climate zones equatorward, increase global cloudiness and ultimately reduce the proportion of solar energy that enters the oceans.
The system then slowly cools.
It is not generally realised that a warmer stratosphere pushes tropopause height down and a cooler stratosphere allows tropopause height to rise.
That is a fundamental omission in current climatology not least because there is an effect on global cloudiness.
Do we have any idea of the percentage increase in this cloudiness that the polar vortex can produce ?
I think we can say that whatever cloudiness changes have occurred are most likely all or nearly all down to the solar induced changes so just check out the Earthshine project for recent developments.
Siberian expresses, just gotta love ’em … just gotta love them … not.
Been having a great wonderful fall here so far. Highs in the fifties and sixties, lows around thirty or forty. But as I say, nothing new. Just weather and not untypical around here.
Weather Underground is calling for a high of 13 deg F on Weds and a low of -9 deg F. Which considering that tomorrow they are forecasting a high of 67 deg F and a low of 23 deg F is going to be just a wee bit of a shock.
From my data going back to 1902, where I am at, the extreme low for November is -26 deg F in 1959. It was -23 deg F in 1985. All time low is -40 Deg F in February 1936.
Just for the record, the low this last February 6th was -28 def F. And for November last year? On the 20th and 21st, the monthly lows were 7 deg F. But by Dec 4th thru the ninth, the temps were -11, -21, -24, -24, -17, -8.
Global Warming? Hah! We could use some!
Thanks, Dr. Spencer. I see just Florida and the south-west staying warmish, the rest of the country is going to use more energy to keep warm enough.
What kind of global warming have we had?
http://www.solen.info/solar/images/comparison_similar_cycles.png
Two items of note, first look at how different solar cycle 24 is from the other solar cycles in that it is still in an up trend some 65 months out. Still weak.
Secondly no sunspot cycle on this graph or the next one I will be sending has remained in an up trend beyond 70 months out.
INDCIATIONS FROM THE ABOVE- the maximum of solar cycle 24 is very close to an end, solar cycle 24 will be a very long cycle with a very long very weak minimum period between it and the next solar cycle which will be 25. This may not start until late 2021.
IMPLICATIONS FOR THE CLIMATE- a more meridional atmospheric circulation , lower global ocean/air temperatures.
Umm..any chance this cold air will reach Mr. Gore’s mansion this week in the deep south?
http://www.solen.info/solar/images/comparison_recent_cycles.png
Just ignore the temperature and send the United Nations your taxes to prevent the Global Warming that is happening at an unprecedented rate. Socialists who ride in Jets said, this is the only way to eliminate mass extinctions. Side Note “As they take a private jet to a population reduction conference to eliminate 98% of Humanity. Just pay your Overlords, Slaves!
66 years ago temperature patterns started out this way in November. Then the storms hit.
Yep, global warming sucks, lol.
If you look at Nick Stokes plots at http://moyhu.blogspot.co.uk/2013/11/seasonal-trends-for-infilled-hadcrut.html of various temperature data sets SET TO WINTER = DFJ you can see clearly that the Arctic is 2 or 3 degrees C warmer in winter than it was, and the lattitudes 40-60 degrees North (sin = ~0.7) have dropped around 1 degree C. Both of these pretty much balance each other out for WINTER global temperatures.
So expect more polar vortex events which are caused by the weakening of the Arctic low temperature in winter, allowing the cold region to expand further south.
This is due to AGW (human-induced climate change), as is made very clear by climate models which also show the weather blocking between Hawaii and California which is now showing record high temperatures for this year so far (much higher than the previous 1934 records).
The theory that the solar cycle is to blame for all these effects falls down in not being able to explain why the same reduction of 1 degree C is not present in the Southern Hemisphere.
Not one of the Global Warming predictions made 10 or 20 years ago has come true. Their lies from 2000 forward are indicative of a lost cause.
Right Pete.
I suppose also you believe that the record Antarctic ice is also caused by “global warming”…..
Can you please explain to us all the mechanism by which “the missing heat” has found it’s way into the deep dark oceans?
Also, please explain why this heat warmed the atmosphere from the 70’s – late 90’s, but then switched to sinking into the depths of the ocean?
If you can explain those two simple things with real, verifiable science, then you will win me over to your cause.
Go boy!
That’s what I’m saying: why did the extra heat suddenly start going into the oceans? Why didn’t it go there previously? When is it coming out? Where is the switch to direct this heat to it’s destination? Is it in the control of the IPCC? If so, why don’t they turn it off? It looks like Wyoming could use some warming.
More exactly, I expect Hedwig has something to do with it, but the pseudo scientists at IPCC are afraid to admit it.
“brother bart of the immaculate convection” 10/6/2014 4:59pm (wuwt)
The immaculate convection: “…the process by which heat got to the lower oceans without, er, ah, penetrating the upper layers first…”
Liars like Pete repeat the lies, they don’t explain them
If you go out to the Danish Meteorlogical Institute’s data of actual Arctic temps, you will see that they are below average right now. Data does not support your theory – as usual.
http://ocean.dmi.dk/arctic/meant80n.uk.php
The difference is, what DMI is showing are actual temps. What you are showing are ‘adjusted’ temp, and never the ‘twain they meet..
The temperature do not seem to be in the extreme. But have a look at the freezing ice ! We had something they called record freeze then. What shall we call it now ?
None of the climate models have been successful at predicting trends in the Actual Climate. Without this validation of the model’s ability to simulate climactic processes, anything “made very clear” by the models is of no probative value.
BTW: Earth has no Global winter… Winter in the North means Summer in the South… There is no Winter on the Equator.
and the glaciers in the Swiss Alps are uncovering ancient farmlands that were never before seen because of us naughty citizens driving all our dirty cars. Wake the * up and think with Your brains!
Where is algore and why do I think that fat bastard is in Wyoming this week?
Oh, no, he is not…we don’t allow such tripe in this state.
yea but the cheneys are allowed in which is worse
Polar Vortex = GLOBAL COOLING
I have been warning the world of this for over a decade!
WHY don’t Democrats want the weather to change? Don’t they know how catastrophic it would be if the weather stayed the same?
Climate and weather are synonyms afterall. For the mentally challenged out there, that means climate and weather mean the same thing
WHY don’t Democrats want the weather to change?
I just wish global warming would stop so that the weather would get warmer.
Wow. Guess I will have to break out the long johns, and pray for global warming!
Pray? Hell no. Go out and do your part. Load up your gas guzzling pick up with flatulent cows and go for a joy ride. Leave the lights on while you’re gone. Do your part before we all freeze to death.
Hi Dr Roy,
The cold weather patterns in the regions mentioned apparently follow from the Nuri storm altering the jet stream. This supposedly results in colder Midwest and northern continental US temps and warmer southwest temps. So exactly how did excess atmospheric plant food bring any of this about? Should the planet be considered some kind of Rube-Goldberg chaos contraption that begins with someone driving an oversized SUV and ends with some extreme climate event reported by some media outlet? Enquiring alarmists want to know! Thanks and…
have a great day!
Hi Roy,
Please allow me a spelling correction. My previous post should have stated:
INQUIRING minds want to know!
EVERY TIME the mighty Boa reads stuff about “global warming”, he can’t help but recall the 70s…..
Some of you may remember. The cover of Popular Science……”The Coming Ice Age”……
Then came that summer. 1988. Go check it out. We FINALLY had a decent summer. Warm, dry. And then, as if on cue, here came the “experts”. GLOBAL WARMING!
Yes,,,,,, the Earth…..has……a “fever”……. and they’ve been on the loose ever since.
The last brutal winter followed by a cool summer panicked the left to the point of making the carbon tax a top priority. They know the upcoming winter is going to be brutal. It can’t help but be any other way, given the much colder temperatures of the Great Lakes and the expanding ice sheet at the North Pole – never mind the continuing thickening of the Antarctic ice sheet. It’s time to deep-freeze this global warming hoax once and for all.
Can anyone here read? These low temps are 30 degrees below the normal for that day, not 30 degrees below zero.
Why don’t you re-read the first sentence of the article, first, then work your way to the balance of the article. The first sentence is quite clear – -30F in parts of Wyoming and parts of Montana.
I did read the article. The first sentence is plainly in error. The writer of the article can’t read a graph. The lowest departure from average temps is -21, not -50. If you don’t believe me, simply show me one town in MT, WY, SD, or NE that is going to be anywhere close to -30F Wednesday. If you can, I’ll happily STFU.
STFU then
http://www.wunderground.com/blog/JeffMasters/comment.html?entrynum=2858
LOL
Al Gore has secretly purchased and personally engineered massive super-sized fans to blow extremely cold Arctic air south. He is the Father of Massive Air Movement don’t ya know, just like the Internet. He is hoping that enough “warming” air will get pulled north so that the Polar Ice Cap will actually start to melt as he predicted it would…..even though it’s only gotten thicker. 🙂 Global Warming …..Right!
In Wyoming it does get cold but what you are not seeing is the 20-30 Mph winds that accompany the polar vortex. -30F is now -50F with wind chill. Cabela’s wool socks save the day and your toes in this part of the country!
@mginwyo >>> Ixnay on the Ind-way … we do not want any more of them windfarmers getting any silly idears.
But yeah, when I see snow falling straight down instead of going by sideways at about 30 MPH, somethin’ never looks right about it. I was told when younger that we get the snow that starts falling in Montana and the snow that starts falling here lands somewhere in Colorado or Nebraska. LOL.
But it is not just the socks, it is the insulated coveralls or insulated bib overalls and down filled coat, knit cap and fur lined leather gloves. If’n you don’t look like the Michelin man, you ain’t gonna be outside fer very long! Or better not be anyway.
No matter how cold it gets you can rely on Tom Peterson (NOAA, Asheville) and Gavin Schmidt (GISS, New York) to tell us this is the hottest year on record.
Thank you UAH and RSS for providing believable temperature data.
Snow buildup in Siberia this October is the second highest in recorded history. Last year was very high too.
This is a predictor of very cold temps and a polar vortex/arctic blast environment for this winter. Looks like this year’s PVAB is starting 3.5 weeks earlier than last year.
In addition, sunspot cycles are at mini-ice-age levels.
Be afraid, be very afraid.
Only chance we have is if the slight warming in the pacific turns into a full-fledged el-Nino.
Oh, I almost forgot: Algore sucks.
Lasciata Speranza said:
>>>”Can anyone here read? These low temps are 30 degrees below the normal for that day, not 30 degrees below zero.”<<<
Well, this is what the headline says:
"Siberian Express to Bring -30 deg. F to Wyoming"
Maybe the headline writer needs to learn how to read?
Yes, that would help. If you think he’s right, give me the name of one town in that region that will come anywhere close to -30F on Wednesday. I’ve looked at the five-day forecasts for all over MT, WY, SD, and NE. I can’t find one.
LOL!
http://www.wunderground.com/blog/JeffMasters/comment.html?entrynum=2858
Looks like the article was right after all…pert neer -30F.
Remember, pretty soon, the day will come when kids won’t know what snow looks like.
This could be true, as Minnesotans know that often it gets too cold to snow.
I member Thanksgiving back in the late 60’s when the ground was frozen when we went outside to throw the football during halftime of the Lions game. Nothing new here except the meteorologist that connected a snow covered Siberia in early autumn may lead to this type of N.A. weather. Give him some of that Global Warming money because he apparently got it right.
Recall that the polar vortex is located in the stratosphere, in the ozone zone, jetstream in the tropopause (250 hPa level). What this is global warming?
Please see the temperature distribution over the polar circle.
http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/stratosphere/strat-trop/gif_files/time_pres_TEMP_MEAN_ALL_NH_2014.gif
Of 400 hPa – 300 hPa the temperature is -45 to -50 degrees C.
Yeah yeah yeah and you need a plexiglass navel. With your head so far up the backside of foolishness, this is about the only way you’ll see the light of day. Tell me why a wooden vessel called the St Roch in the 1940’s sailed the northwest passage hunting German vessels? Was that global warming too? How about the Maunder minimum period of cooling that Prof. Mann so conveniently forgets about which was before the industrial revolution. So many patterns that repeat themselves prove you haven’t a clue or those with alphabet soup behind their doctor name.
http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/stratosphere/
The media are currently confusing the true polar vortex and the circumpolar vortex.
The first is a column of descending air above the poles in the stratosphere.
The second is the ring of jet stream tracks around the poles in the troposphere.
The mainstream media invariably mean the latter.
The temperature gradient increases in the stratosphere during the winter above the level of 150 hPa. Polar vortex has the highest rate between 20 to 30 km, as you can see there the largest gradient.
http://oi61.tinypic.com/mmzehg.jpg
The distribution of ozone at an altitude of 17 km, is similar to last year. So it is not difficult to predict forecast for the winter in the US.
http://oi61.tinypic.com/25k4u3s.jpg
http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/stratosphere/strat_a_f/gif_files/gfs_t70_nh_f00.gif
The problem with “Diversity” is that eventually you run out of white children to chase down.
Race&culture replacement targeting one group of people is called…
Anti-racist is a codeword for anti-white
Who cares about weather? In the summer they call the vortices hurricanes and in the winter “polar vortex”….big whup. We have never in recorded history had this many volcanoes going off at the same time. Until man can stop those bad boys, what we would put into the air is insignificant. Why Pinatubo put out more CO2 in one eruption than all of the industrial revolution combined to date. What does that say to the more than 40 sending “gasses” into the air at this moment. Tell me who could be so stupid as to think this isn’t cooling our planet along with the low solar activity besides the blubbering algore and “un” minions?
Siberian Express? I remember when it was always “The Montreal Express”. It was just a mass of cold air brought south by the jet stream. Didn’t matter if it started in Alaska, Siberia,or any of the Canadian provinces. Then it became “The Alberta Clipper”.
The weather people explained the distinctions which made them different. I have missed it, but I haven’t heard the expression The Montreal Express in years. Perhaps The Alberta Clipper is being, or will be phased out as well.
It is always something that sounds more dramatic, or ominous.
George Carlin summed it up perfectly in one of his comedy routines.
In WWI, soldiers suffered from “Shell Shock”, two one syllable words. In WWII, it was “Battle Fatigue”, two two syllable words. Then came the topper “Post Traumatic Stress Syndrome”.
I can’t wait to see what the meteorologists come up with to top the “Polar Vortex”.
Democrats are like weather forecasters…..always confuse the issue & are never close to being right. Hey! Where’s those east coast hurricanes? Polar Vortex……use to be called Cold air from the Arctic. Even the co-founder of the Weather Channel knows this stuff is snap shot science. Billions of dollars spent and we still have weather 50/50.
Catastrophic sameness in climate.
Blaming man is a means to an end.
Environmental zealots in the 70s
upset about using lumber waste products
into reusable and biodegradable paper bags, insisted we
start using plastic, now non-biodegradable
plastic is reaping havoc.
Let’s try and stop interfering with others.
The consequence of forcing misguided good intentions
onto society have caused more environmental damages throughout
history. From Yellowstone, to using food and feed farming
into energy sucking bio-fuels.
Hope all those wind farms heat your homes
during these vortex events, don’t call on the
home heating oil market to feel sorry for you.
Here in California it is still 80 degrees and sunny, but I think I would trade the traffic problems of the Dakotas to California.
We have horrendous traffic and they have horrendous weather.
Democrats are so stupid that they don’t even know what the words “global” “warming” or “climate” mean.
Climate and weather are synonyms….that is they mean the same thing. Why on earth do Democrats want the weather to stay the same?
And record cold temperatures are not possible, IF temeperatures are rising all over the entire world. Have you liars ever bothered to look up the definitions of “global” and “warming”?
Democrats should start running the names of their ridiculous lies by a panel of people smarter than them….in this case, 5th graders!
Polar Vortex = Global COOLING
I Alberto Gorez, noted S. American Global Cooling Climatologist, have been warning the world of the dangers of Global Cooling for over a decade. The Socialist media had been muzzling my theories because the solution to global cooling is not trillions of dollars of new taxes on working folks to redistribute wealth.
https://www.google.com/search?sourceid=navclient&ie=UTF-8&rlz=1T4GFRE_enUS327US327&q=alberto+gorez+global+cooling
My favorite Democrat cLIEmatology lie was to blame a summertime “polar vortex” for the record cold temperatures most of the nation experienced last summer.
It’s a shame the average American is so stupid that they are falling for this….
Manmade global warming climate disruption change causes the excess heat to hide in the oceans, which freezes record amounts of sea ice and traps global warming climate disruption change scirentists in heavy summer sea ice while studying vanishing sea ice….any questions?
How can this be? Al and all the idiot democrats promised us global warming! Fool all!
http://wattsupwiththat.files.wordpress.com/2014/11/clip_image0023.jpg
I thought OLR was suppose to decrease in response to an increase in GHG’S.
This chart does not show this happening.
Doesn’t ORL (plus albedo reflection) by definition have to remain constant (assuming a constant sun)? The earth’s temperature just adjusts to keep the balance.
On a long enough time scale. I have no idea what that is though.
This study analysed two important factors directly associated with the greenhouse effect; atmospheric temperature and outgoing radiation, and finds that outgoing radiation has not declined. The missing heat has gone back to space as usual. But more importantly the (lack of a) trend observed in an empirical derivation of the Stefan Boltzmann relative emissivity factor directly contradicts the greenhouse theory built into the IPCC models.
Dr. Spencer, this data does not support your data on OLR.
http://wattsupwiththat.files.wordpress.com/2014/11/clip_image005_thumb1.jpg?w=674&h=577
I know Roy has visited Vancouver on the west (aka wet) coast of Canada. While the Arctic Air (polar vortex…come on!!)is flowing down over the mid-provinces and states, here in Vancouver, it is a balmy 8C.
Stephen Wilde, who frequents Roy’s blog, has theorized that the oceans act like a huge hot water bottle. I agree with that theory. I also think it is warm ocean currents that spread ocean heat across the globe.
Even at that, the average year-round temperature of the Pacific Ocean at our latitude and longitude is around 40C. That, coupled with the Japanese Current, keeps our temperatures above 0C when the prairies are suffering up to -50C.
It should be plain that the Greenhouse Effect is a metaphor, and a bad one at that. There’s no need to explain how the atmosphere warmed when you have 73% of the planet covered by warming oceans.
There are times when freezing Arctic Air pushes the warm ocean air aside here in Vancouver and our temperature go below 0C. The temps never go far below 0C, however, and seldom for more than a week or so.
The question that should be asked is why the Arctic is so cold when alarmists are claiming it is warming up there. Sure it is. Rather than -60C, it’s now -55C.
I’m sure the people in the locales covered in this article will be pleased as punch to hear that.
“Even at that, the average year-round temperature of the Pacific Ocean at our latitude and longitude is around 40C.”
The average year-round temperature of the Pacific Ocean at your latitude is 104° Fahrenheit????
“The average year-round temperature of the Pacific Ocean at your latitude is 104° Fahrenheit????”
Did I mention that I’m not from this planet? 🙂
Sorry. I did mean 40F. I am used to using Celsius from science but I also grew up with Fahrenheit.
Thanks for pointing out my typo.
@McGehee ….ps. I was in water at 40C once but it was a geothermally heated pool in Rotorua, New Zealand.
I don’t care what anybody here says. Global warming is manmade…..
It’s a manmade lie to raise taxes on working people. Only fools and liars still peddle this nonsense.
If the DemoncRats have not yet shut down your coal fired Power Plant, nothing to worry about as it is just what sane people call the weather.
I wish “Global Warming” was a stock so that I could short it and make millions…
Dr. Spencer, maybe you could obtain a comment from the lying, demoRAT-COMMUNIST party hack operative and colossal fraud, algore.
With reference to the 1-100,000 number 😉
http://wattsupwiththat.files.wordpress.com/2013/05/i_survived_400ppm_tshirt.jpg
Dr. Spencer, Recently an old idea popped into my head. That ocean life is a huge carbon sink. Plant life in the ocean is vast, but very short lived. I imagine that most of it is consumed by animals, which generally breed rather quickly. Perhaps heat is also transferred to the bottom of the ocean this way, by the decomposition of the increased plant and animal waste.
So you say heat sinks and doesn’t rise?
Maybe you should open a thermodynamics book?
Democrats are desperate fools, still clinging to their stupid lies.
Biological matter sinks, and releases heat when it decomposes.
“biological matter sinks? You mean like wood?
LOL@IdiotLiars
Like fish shit and dead fish.
(What’s your major malfunction?)
How do you think ocean acidification happens, by-products from decay upwell.
That is why sufrace is more alkaline. Plants and consume the acidifying nutrients.
(Why would you think I’m a democrat?)
From a recent comment on another site (with minor edits):
Oops. Let’s try that again:
Like fish shit and dead fish.
(What’s your major malfunction?)
How do you think ocean acidification happens, by-products from decay upwell.
That is why the surface is more alkaline. Plants and zooplankton consume the acidifying nutrients.
(Why would you think I’m a democrat?)
From a recent comment on another site (with minor edits):
So, probably Trenberth’s missing heat doesn’t exist and his deep ocean warming is fish poop.
http://test.classconnection.s3.amazonaws.com/340/flashcards/355340/jpg/biomass_period_-_aquatic_ecosystem.jpg
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Biomass_(ecology)#Ocean_biomass
Weather used to be something you talked about when you had nothing else to talk about.
Now with world coverage, it’s become hot topic.
I’m very sure this has never happened before. Keep up the good work.
I think Gordon Robertson may have made a typo.
Or possibly Fahrenheit versus Celsius.
Average ocean temp just west coast of Vancouver island is about 50 degrees Fahrenheit or so. I think that’s 10C.
@AlanF “I think Gordon Robertson may have made a typo”.
No may about it, I messed up. It was a typo.
I think 50F is a bit high. I was in the Pacific off Vancouver Island during the summer once and it’s cold enough, even in summer, that you have to wear a wet suit or ease in slowly.
Just standing in it up to my ankles was uncomfortable. I slowly immersed myself by splashing water on my body and walking out till I was up to my waist. Then I took the plunge. At first, it gave me a chill to my head but when that wore off I was OK.
Here’s a page giving sea temperatures off Tofino but keep in mind that Tofino is generally in a shallow water bay.
http://www.surf-forecast.com/breaks/Tofino/seatemp
Here’s a government site warning of hypothermia. They claim the Pacific ranges from 7C – 14C at that latitude. The lower temp is about 44C whereas as the upper temp is about 57C. From what I experienced I think the upper temp is optimistic.
http://www.pc.gc.ca/eng/pn-np/bc/pacificrim/visit/visit7/visit7g.aspx
Why is mass immigration and assimilation demanded of Anywhere that white people live and Only wherever white people live?
Why do supposedly World Problems like “racism”, privilege, diversity, inequality, etc. invariably end up targeting Only white people and Only white-populated countries?
Maybe antiracist is code for antiwhite?
Maybe diversity means white-only racial and cultural replacement, AKA White Genocide?
“Only where ever white people live”
I’ve got news for you, bill, NOBODY wants to immigrate and assimilate where non-white people live…
Well, would be ok IF people assimilated. But that’s not happening. They immigrate but do not integrate. Instead we have the likes of Chinatown, we have black cities, we have muslim enclaves. Not one of this is actually good.
So wrong is that people who immigrate try to make our society as bad as the one they are running away from. Then it’s obvious why most of us do not want to emigrate …
Hi Rolf,
You mentioned:
“They immigrate but do not integrate. Instead we have the likes of Chinatown, we have black cities, we have muslim enclaves. Not one of this is actually good.”
The Koran speaks of CONQUEST not INTEGRATION/ASSIMILATION. White liberal policy goals have no parallel in Islamic ideology. In fact, for our supposed leaders to seek such a relationship with unknown numbers of such people allowed to cross the borders without proper oversight simply proves by the increasing numbers of beheadings and jihadi violence to be morally bankrupt and possibly treasonous. Thanks and…
Have a great day!
Yup, that global warming just keeps rearing its ugly head.With temperatures at near freezing, just maybe it will freeze all the global warming kooks mouth shut.
Cause they’re really making idiots out of themselves.
It should have been clear in 2001 that Al Gore lost his mind. He gained 100 lbs and grew a beard as a reflection of his maddening state of mind. But his eyes, those eyes couldn’t lie. Take a look at video footage of him at that time. He looked insane. He truly did lose it after losing the presidential election to George Bush. And that same Al Gore is the man leading the charge about global warming? I knew back then he was certifiable and anyone who listened to him would fall into the same black hole of lunacy that he did. Simply amazing how many people can’t tell when someone is insane.
Hi Vince,
You stated:
“Simply amazing how many people can’t tell when someone is insane.”
Little doubt politicians count on it.
Have a great day!
They can thank their lucky stars the earth is burning up with global warming or it would really be cold.
I’m sorry just wait.
So much “heat is hiding in the oceans” that it froze a shipload of global warming liars in the sea ice during the antarctic summer.
It also made it too cold for Obama to go swimming this summer on his 29th Martha’s Vineyard vacation……
Seriously, who is stupid enough to believe democrat Serial Liars about anything?
There goes the PROPANE and NGAS prices
Just how often does a Dumbocrap Party fanatic, with an Obola bumper sticker on their Apple Laptop have to scream at you that Global “Warming” always involves extreme weather – like a new ice age???
Re: Arizona
Some of us prefer Wyoming. Deer, antelope, few discouraging words and most importantly, illegals are scarce and crime rare.
Uninstall the sound card driver and scan it for hardware changes.
It is possible to frequently go to a person’s Trade server aided by the mobile phone network, or possibly function traditionally, or simply cancel it logon. *A Quick Tip: If you are
waiting for something really important cross reference this
with your electronic calendar.
These Arctic chill events happening last year, and now again, just after the midterm elections (where global warming was either ignored or refuted) undermine the alarmist cause. See image here:
https://encrypted-tbn0.gstatic.com/images?q=tbn:ANd9GcRi1UABK6xzW5F6o0vn33zMDxD8us06lDyckcP8JBYxQhUQlDKn
As I have been maintaining a prolonged minimum solar period gives rise to a more meridional atmospheric circulation pattern due to changes in ozone concentrations in a vertical and horizontal sense in the stratosphere.
A more intense atmospheric meridional atmospheric circulation pattern should result in a greater persistence in weather patterns, morecloud coverage and snow coverage and thus an increase in the albedo.
The questions to be asked are when solar cycle 24 finally ends( which will likely be very soon) will the atmospheric circulation pattern lock into this greater meridional pattern? If so will it amplify the cloud coverage and snow coverage? If so to what degree?
Will prolonged minimum solar activity result in lower ocean heat content and sea surface temperatures? If so how fast?
Will volcanic activity increase?
How will the weakening earth magnetic field moderate solar activity?
Will the PDO/AMO stay or go into there cold phase ? Will the warm pool of water off the Western North America coast persist? Will ENSO feature more La Nina’s going forward in response to a cold PDO?
How will a cold phase AMO/PDO play upon Arctic Sea Ice?NA’S
I have three causes for global cloud coverage in mind, they are cosmic rays, the atmospheric circulation pattern and volcanic activity.
The big question is how will those three causes for cloud coverage respond when the maximum of solar cycle 24 ends following 10 years of sub-solar activity in general?
If the answers to these questions I have asked come out the way I think they will expect cooler global temperatures going forward and more persistence in weather patters.
Note solar cycle 24 started Dec. 2008 no cycle has continued to increase in activity more then 72 months into a given cycle which means the very weak maximum of solar cycle 24 should be ending in the very near future and a long severe solar decline could /should set in thereafter.
Once this happens many of the questions I have posed should be answered.
Salvatore, initially cycle 24 was thought to be the weakest solar max since the dalton minimum, however, as time dragged on it became clear that it would be more like the maximum in the late 1920’s. Although relatively weak, that cycle was still a step up from previous cycles in the nineteenth century. AND, apparently did nothing to slow the warming of the early twentieth century. So who knows what lies ahead. If more recent solar activity/warming (or lack there of) is any indicator, then we may indeed see your predictions come true…
@Salvatore…”Will prolonged minimum solar activity result in lower ocean heat content and sea surface temperatures?”
Let’s just hope this strange solar behavior is not a premature precursor to Old Sol becoming a Red Giant.
I think it is the atmospheric circulation as per my New Climate Model which was initially proposed in 2010.
CO2 emissions could be greatly reduced if global warmist would just stop breathing.
Which leads one to this thought. Many of the alarmists don’t have and advocate not having children. If they would go ahead and finish what they actually advocate we, those of us who actually want to survive, would be left without their mouths to feed and listen to.
What a wonderful world it could be!
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_solar_cycles
Solar cycle 24 started Jan 2008 not Dec. 2008 which may wind up even being longer then I previously thought.
Implications to the climate? Time will tell.
1 in 100,000 chance – I knew the climate dice were loaded!
Friends all over Texas get ready for the Siberian Express will be with us tomorrow morning starting at 4 a.m. temperatures will drop like a a hammer on a finger so get your hats, coats and gloves and even coats with hoodie, in the US is a federal holiday so who got to stay home watch movies play video games or do you like I do listen to music all day tomorrow take care and stay warm,Semper Fi.
http://iceagenow.info/2014/11/solar-cycle-24-rapid-descent/
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_solar_cycles
Dr. Spencer was correct with the -30 F in Wyoming. -34 F in Lucerne, Wyoming.
http://www.accuweather.com/en/weather-news/snowstorm-to-turn-crosscountry/37306172