Home/BlogOne thing I don’t like about living in the southeast U.S. is the humidity. So, when the first really dry air arrives, it makes me happy. Just in time for the start of Fall. 🙂
Here’s an animation of the NAM-WRF 4 km model forecast of 2 meter (basically, surface) dewpoint temperature from this morning I put together from imagery produced by Weatherbell.com, showing the dramatic drop in humidity as the Canadian air invades most of the East and Southeast:
The time step is hourly through the 36 hour forecast (Monday evening) then 3 hourly through 60 hours (Tuesday evening).
Maybe I’ll call it Can Air (2014).
I know it can feel oppressive here in North Alalbama, but I’d rather have our high humidity than the opposite. I spent a week each in The Grand Canyon, Las Vegas, and Johannesburg this summer and the low humidity was terrible to me.
Dr. Spencer, in reviewing the global temp anomaly graph it appears to me that when I fit an (approximate) line through the data points, I notice an (approximate) 0.4 deg C increase from 1979 to today. That is roughly a 0.1 deg C increase per decade. To me that represents an indication of global temperature increase. Could you speak to this observation? Regards, Steve Osella
“Canadian air invades…”
That’s what comes of having the world’s longest undefended border.
That IS funny…
Hear Hear for low dew point. I spent the day in the Mountains of Northern Alabama, Though 91F, was very comfortable. Felt like my Colorado days, except every thing is green here. Looking forward to Fall in Bama.
Very high cosmic radiation. Jetstream will move further south.
http://cosmicrays.oulu.fi/webform/query.cgi?startday=31&startmonth=08&startyear=2014&starttime=00%3A00&endday=22&endmonth=09&endyear=2014&endtime=00%3A00&resolution=Automatic+choice&picture=on
http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/stratosphere/strat_a_f/gif_files/gfs_z70_nh_f00.gif
Roy I am in Arizona the last month is has been humid is there hope that will change any time soon. After all I live in a desert it is not suppose to be humid, well with 3.5 inches of rain two weeks ago and another 3 last week here in Mesa, yes I am looking for some relief. I expect it to dry off after monsoon season and that should be ending shortly. Aleluya! The only consultation is with the humidity it only been in the nineties and low one hundreds topping off at one hundred five or six. I don’t expect to see any teen temperatures any more this year, yet that always a possibility after all it is weather and I do live in a desert.
Much rain will fall in the west.
http://earth.nullschool.net/#2014/09/25/0600Z/wind/surface/level/overlay=total_cloud_water/orthographic=-92.77,34.61,688
Let’s see circulation in the lower stratosphere at an altitude of 17 km.
http://earth.nullschool.net/#current/wind/isobaric/70hPa/orthographic=-92.77,34.61,599
You have to see weakening magnetic field of the sun. Soon we will see what is the role of the sun in climate.
http://wso.stanford.edu/gifs/Polar.gif
This may not be related. Does the 50% increase in the arctic ice cover this summer have anything to do with this drier air. Also, could you comment on the significance, if any, of the higher arctic ice cover and the record ice cover in the Antarctic.
Gore effect on a larger scale (grander untruths). Plus, interglacial periods only last about 10Kyears anyway.
BTW: JFK, Jr. is going to have you and RWS jailed. Gore just wants an economic penalty. We’ll see if DeCaprio ups it to a capital offense? No idea who will demand burring at stake.
Oops: RFK Jr. and others.
Yikes!
Reminds me of the movie “The Blob”!
Please send some down to SW Florida.
Roy
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I wish there was a list of brand name scientists and media that continue to exploit the public hysteria about climate change. This way when the pendulum eventually swings towards reality about the role of CO2 for Earth’s climate (sensitivity), they do not escape unscathed. Imho if you are still using broken models to advance your career and fuel hysteria amongst the common person and media, then you do not have what it takes to be a data driven scientist. Models are only science when testable, and considering their poor performance, how can these failed models continue to be considered valid? They are now mythical oracles of emotion and feeling… nothing more.
For example. https://www.yahoo.com/news/carbon-time-bomb-set-off-30-years-less-153225137.html?hl=1&noRedirect=1
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In spite of the big march in NY this has been a good week for climate science.
Judith Curry gave a great speech at the national press club Steve Koonins chair of the APS committee to examine there public policy statement wrote a good op ed in the wall street Journal and the a paper was published showing all the warming on the pacific coast is due to natural venerability and not by CO2 induce warming.
“…natural venerability…”
Quite rare.
Gaiaists?!
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Great job looking at the data for yourself… that is always the best way to investigate these things.
Since Dr. Spencer is a very busy man i will answer your question as best i can. Of course i dont represent this site so these are just my answers.
There was significant warming from 1950 to about 2000, as a matter of fact there was more warming than CO2 alone can explain. That is when the IPCC climate models established their relationship between CO2 increases and global warming and they basically extrapolated outward from that point in time (actually i think it was about 1995 they were released). If you are interested in a longer data set look at the hadcrut 4 data (google it). It shows the large amount of warming that has occurred since 1900. The problem is many sceptics were suspicious that much of the warming was caused by variables other than CO2 and felt the models were not accurate and remained uncalibrated. Most sceptics dont deny CO2 causes warming, we just dont think it is as estreme as the models suggest. For example, during the same time interval there was lots of warming the sun was having the strongest activity in more than 2000 years, a major climate cycle called the PDO was in its warming phase, and we had a super El Nino in 1997 and 1998 that warmed the Earth, and of course CO2 was increasing from human activity. The models wrapped all the heating from all of these and projected warming based on CO2 without properly considering the other variables. The politicians on the left and many poor countries find this a good reason to redistribute wealth and have really made a strong push to penalize energy users and subsidize the less developed. So the issue of climate change has become extremely political.
After 2000 the warming stopped and the PDO reversed to a cool phase and the sun’s activity decreased and we have skipped 2 expected el ninos (this is partially why california is having such a large drought because el nino provides a year or 2 of very wet conditions ever 4 years or so), but CO2 continued to climb as expected. The models have basically tracked the rise of CO2 and at this point 98% of the model scenarios are above the actual temperature and the model mid case scenario is running away from the actual temperature. That was almost 15yrs ago now and still the political pressure continues to push for this global reorganization using bad data.
So to answer your question based on his previous posts Roy agrees with your analysis and even that CO2 likely causes some warming but not the doomsday scenario presented in mainstream media. However the models are very wrong and have become more about politics than good science. So every time you read an article that talks about future climate and catastrophic warming, ask yourself: how do they know that it will be that temperature because they have not been able to predict global warming for the last 15 years.
@Aaron S…”There was significant warming from 1950 to about 2000…”
According to John Christy of UAH there has been little or no ‘true’ warming since 1979, when the NOAA satellites went into business. Since the 50s and 60s were regarded as periods of cooling, where did that significant warming come from?
Has it something to do with the baselines used by the surface station crowd. They use baselines from 1950 – 1990 …still…and since the 5s and 60s were cooler, does that not induce a warming bias into the 1950 – 2000 period?
Aaron, we’ve been playing “computer tag” (as opposed to “phone tag”)… I left a link for you (11000 years of sunspot data) and an explanation with a short comment that you made with the “kitten video”(August 25; check the archive…). Let me know that you got it, huh?
We’re just getting back at you for invading Canada in 1812. Far better to be pelting you with air than ordnance.
Our two nations have gotten along remarkably well for centuries. Here’s to another few centuries of the same.
Actually, you should blame the Inuit and the Eskimos. You know, those people who live in the Arctic, where it’s so hot that all the ice has melted.
Wonder where that cool air is coming from. Somebody leave a window open?
Gordon, that is possible but I can say in the available data there is obvious warming through the 90s. I tend to use harcrut 4 temperature measurements bc now that it is calibrated w satellite data i think it is the most powerful measured temperature due to its longer time series. Is Christy removing El Nino or something else? There is an obvious step in the UAH data also at the 97 98 event. Maybe you can provide a link to a paper or summary bc i would be interested in learning. I dont like when people remove data, which is why i tend to smooth it with a 5 or 7 year running average to get rid of ENSO noise but keep all the data. Unfortunately, that doesnt leave much data in satellite record bc they are so short.
I did thanks! Similarly, I replied in another post. So this multi cycle solar peak had the most strength considering duration and total count in the 11kyr record, but only highest peak over last 2kyr. Still a very interesting observation! Btw i have seen a video with the author of the paper that started gaia world and he was alright but the theory has metamorphosed into some sort of pseudoscience spirituality mess. http://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Gaia_hypothesis
Roy, I lived in the South for 60 years (Alabama native) and I hated the heat and humidity. I moved to Montana in 2003 and married a Montana lady. I love the weather here including winter. The summers are almost perfect if we don’t have any big forest fires. We normally (for the 11 years I have lived here) have one week of 90 degree highs. This summer no 90 degree days at all. Last winters’ 36 below was the coldest temperature I have experienced.
Humidity (water vapour) leads to a less steep temperature gradient (due to the temperature levelling effect of intermolecular radiation) and thus cooler supported temperatures which slow or stop the cooling in the early pre-dawn hours. This is confirmed by a study of 30 years of temperature records from three continents.
We don’t “have control, influence, or impact on the climate” for one key reason. The gravito-thermal effect (first explained by the brilliant 19th century physicist, Josef Loschmidt, and never correctly disproved by people like Robert G.Brown of WUWT fame) has been overlooked.
All the energy diagrams have major flaws:
(1) They imply that solar energy absorbed by the surface comes back out of the surface in the same region, thus playing a part in determining local temperature. That is simply not the case for more than half the surface which is the thin surface of the oceans in non-polar regions. That surface is hotter than the floor of the ocean, and so there is significant downward diffusion of thermal energy which then does not surface again until it reaches the polar regions. Furthermore, most of the solar radiation passes right through that thin transparent layer, warming lower regions in the thermocline from where the energy continues its downward trend.
(2) Back radiation only slows that portion of this ocean surface cooling which is by upward radiation. It does not slow evaporative cooling or upward conduction, diffusion and convection. Nor does it have any effect on the cooling caused by downward diffusion to the depths of the ocean in these non-polar regions where nearly everyone lives on land that is affected by nearby ocean temperatures. Nor does back radiation help the Sun to raise the temperature in the first place, as is implied in the way climatologists use the Stefan-Boltzmann Law.
There is obviously a huge amount of “missing energy” that must be entering the ocean surface. There is indeed, and it comes from downward diffusion (“heat creep”) which is restoring thermodynamic equilibrium, just as the Second Law of Thermodynamics says will happen. The energy diagrams don’t show this.
Roy and others, please note:
These are the facts (based on correct physics and empirical evidence) which smash the greenhouse radiative forcing conjecture …
(1) Gravity forms a temperature gradient (and a density gradient) in the tropospheres of all planets with significant atmospheres, including gas giants. This is a direct corollary of the process described in statements of the Second Law of Thermodynamics.
(2) Back radiation can only slow radiative cooling back to the atmosphere. The thin surface layer of the oceans in non-polar regions also cools by non-radiative processes both into the atmosphere and, as usually overlooked, also by downward diffusion and convection which are both towards the colder regions found at the base of the ocean thermocline. That energy only gets back to the surface in polar regions, and so it does not affect the temperature of the ocean surfaces in non-polar regions – probably about half of Earth’s surface.
(3) Solar radiation cannot possible raise the temperature of that thin surface layer of the ocean to the observed temperatures, because over 90% of the radiative flux is warming layers below that, and you can’t double count it. You must only enter into Stefan-Boltzmann calculations less than 10% of the solar flux reaching the surface, which is about 10% of 161W/m^2 on average. In fact, that mean flux of 161W/m^2 would only support a temperature of about 235K even if the Earth were paved in black asphalt for which emissivity is 0.93. Check it with an on-line Stefan Boltzmann calculator. Back radiation cannot be added to solar flux when determining the surface temperature and, in fact, it does not penetrate warmer water by more than a few nanometres. Its electro-magnetic energy is pseudo scattered and is never converted to thermal energy in the warmer water.
(4) Empirical evidence proves the existence of the gravito-thermal effect, and it would warm the Earth’s surface to a mean of about 295K to 300K but for the fact that water vapour reduces the magnitude of the gradient (aka dry/wet adiabatic lapse rate) and leads to supported temperatures about 10 to 12 degrees cooler. These temperatures in the base of the troposphere slow down and even stop the surface cooling in the early pre-dawn hours, regardless of radiation losses which are balanced by “heat creep” diffusion and conduction back into the surface. These non-radiative transfers of thermal energy occur as a result of the Second Law of Thermodynamics as they are restoring thermodynamic equilibrium. They are most prevalent into the ocean surfaces during sunlit hours and especially on cloudy days.
Recently, I was in Needles, CA at dusk and the conditions were:
Temp: 100 F
Dewpoint: 35
Humidity: 10%
And it felt Sooo good!
Just to see what it felt like, I went running for a couple of miles, barely broke a sweat, and I loved it!
I’m with you, I dislike the humidity.
Thanks for the work you do.
Steve
Roy and silent readers:
What makes people think warm air always rises? Try suspending one of those oil filled convection heaters near your ceiling and tell me whether or not some warm air falls. The direction of convection (which includes diffusion and advection) when there has been previously a state of thermodynamic equilibrium (with its associated temperature gradient formed by gravity) is always in all accessible directions away from any source of new thermal energy which has disturbed the previous state of thermodynamic equilibrium. For proof read “Why It’s Not Carbon Dioxide After All.”
Some readers here don’t seem to know the difference between isothermal conditions, thermal equilibrium and thermodynamic equilibrium. Even Wikipedia could help you on that, but it’s not surprising you don’t understand thermodynamics – as I well know from helping students with physics and mathematics for about 50 years.
Well, you still have numerous other points to respond to that I’ve made in comments on several threads here and throughout Facebook and some other climate blogs. No one has replied with any valid counter arguments that I can’t refute. No one can explain the temperatures in the Venus and Uranus tropospheres in any other way than using calculations based on the gravito-thermal effect. No one in the world has correctly disproved the gravito-thermal effect in well over 100 years since the brilliant 19th century physicist Josef Loschmidt explained it..
Water vapour cools by about 10 to 12 degrees. Carbon dioxide cools for the same reason by about 0.1 degree. I have produced empirical evidence regarding water vapour cooling, and that supports the gravito-thermal explanation of planetary tropospheric and surface temperatures. Where is any contrary study, Roy?
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http://science.nasa.gov/science-news/science-at-nasa/2012/22mar_saber/
Conveniently, “Cryosphere Today”, the University of Illinois website which shows the extent of Arctic and Antarctic sea ice, is offline this week of the U.N.Climate Change meeting in NYC.
I wonder why? Is it because the site’s data is embarassing to the Climate Change adherents? (It shows that Antarctic Sea ice reach the hightest on record and more than offsets the arctic deficit.) Has it been brought down by green hackers? Anyone know?
Let’s see how quickly growing volume of ice in the Arctic.
https://14adebb0-a-62cb3a1a-s-sites.googlegroups.com/site/arctischepinguin/home/piomas/grf/piomas-trnd3.png?attachauth=ANoY7coQmz9s7JOk4FmJaafMuSg0YoqDi-Nl6NVWOTCQgK8dtWjS2J2C3he3kT_BJH5MtdKzSYMGQQR0wyr3ohxQsj6AzsYSBYUsHXVQlv-G9xtZV-ev1C7uPQRl-axXauAkbsc1r8e7M0rxJvNIBdIJatbkBgposIQhAzfsKLid4K5-XcIVg0bMizPdSJFo_fe3N_xKpEdOPNtG_icbVwabzerv-eOAPLsEToAVwKPo9mazzH1A4RRYTjv2eV9XG-5wP-DHRhE7&attredirects=0
Straits of in the North West Passage already freeze, quickly be accumulate fast- the ice between Canada and Greenland, because of the the location of polar vortex.
Today, Iwent to the beachfront with myy kids.
I found a sea shell and gave it to my 4year old daughter and said “You can hear the ocean if you put this to your ear.” She placed the shell too her ear and
screamed. There was a herrmit crab insire and it pinched her ear.
She never wants to ggo back! LoL I know this is totaly off topic but I had to tell someone!
Thanks, Dr. Spencer.
Impressive model movie.
Tomorrow, there will a new Joe Bastardi movie released by http://www.weatherbell.com
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No one has a valid counter argument. Keep watching, or try yourself to write a valid rebuttal..
Let’s see what is the condition of ice and snow on the day of 9/26/14. Are will grow the fastest ice between Canada and Greenland? We’ll see.
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http://earth.nullschool.net/#2014/10/03/0600Z/wind/isobaric/850hPa/overlay=temp/orthographic=-101.17,56.15,599
http://earth.nullschool.net/#2014/10/03/0600Z/wind/isobaric/10hPa/orthographic=-100.77,62.26,395
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