Home/BlogSunday update: make that eight states.
Looks like September snows — not even mountain snows — over the northern tier of states spreading eastward from Montana and North Dakota starting Tuesday night.
The latest GFS model total snow accumulation by next Saturday shows snow for Montana, Wyoming (mountains only), the Dakotas, Nebraska, Minnesota, Wisconsin, and Michigan (plot courtesy of WeatherBell.com):
I suspect any “lake effect” in Michigan will be ice pellets embedded in rain showers coming off the lakes, which are probably still too warm for snow. Michigan lake effect snow usually holds off till October, at the earliest.
Regarding how unusual this is, here’s a plot of the average times of first snow…as you can see, the predicted snow is about a month early:
How unusual would this be, Roy?
great question…see the map of average first snow dates I added to the article.
SO.. the CONSTANT spraying that 90% have NO CLUE of, of our skies… plays “what role”?
Seriously? Your hat is on a little too tight.
The spraying is not a secret, you can find info on it on the Dept of Energy gov website. Aresol is being used for solar radiation management to offset the affects of climate change. Small particles reflecting sunlight away from the surface by means of clouds and cloud seeding. You should not be so pessimistic, our Gov loves playing God, and not well at all. Take alook at the trees when your driving, lots and lots are dieing because aluminium falling in the rain water is preventing the roots uptake
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Better living through geoengineering. An engineered weather mod event.
http://geoengineeringwatch.org
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=LyU8B-87AaM
Dana … they obviously don’t make hats small enough to fit your pinhead.
Do you mean the Tin Foil coincidence hat?
Yes, that’s what ‘they’ said about all this spying stuff reviled by Snowden. It turns out that the ‘tin foil’ hats were right.
See this Senate bill S.517:
S. 517 (109th): Weather Modification Research and Development Policy Authorization Act of 2005
Introduced:
Mar 3, 2005 (109th Congress, 2005–2006)
Status:
Died (Reported by Committee) in a previous session of Congress
Library of Congress Summary
The summary below was written by the Congressional Research Service, which is a nonpartisan division of the Library of Congress.
Section4 –
Directs the Director of the Office of Science and Technology Policy to establish a Weather Modification Subcommittee to coordinate a national research program on weather modification.
Requires the Subcommittee to include representatives from:
(1) the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA);
(2) the National Science Foundation (NSF); and
(3) the National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA). Provides for a representative from NOAA and a representative from NSF to serve together as co-chairs of such Subcommittee.
Requires the Director to develop and submit a plan for coordinated federal activities under the program, which shall:
(1) for a ten-year period, establish the goals and priorities for federal research that most effectively advances scientific understanding of weather modification;
(2) describe specific activities required to achieve such goals and priorities, including funding of competitive research grants, training and support for scientists, and participation in international research efforts;
(3) identify and address, as appropriate, relevant programs and activities of the federal agencies and departments that would contribute to the program;
(4) consider and use, as appropriate, reports and studies conducted by federal agencies and departments, and other expert scientific bodies, including the National Research Council report on Critical Issues in Weather Modification Research;
(5) make recommendations for the coordination of program activities with weather modification activities of other national and international organizations;
(6) incorporate recommendations from the Weather Modification Research Advisory Board; and
(7) estimate federal funding for research activities to be conducted under the program.
Specifies activities related to weather modification that may be included under the program, including:
(1) interdisciplinary research and coordination of research and activities to improve understanding of processes relating to weather modification, including cloud modeling, cloud seeding, improving forecast and decision-making technologies, related severe weather research, and potential adverse affects of weather modification;
(2) development, through partnerships among federal agencies, states, and academic institutions, of new technologies and approaches for weather modification; and
(3) scholarships and educational opportunities that encourage an interdisciplinary approach to weather modification.
Requires the Director to prepare and submit to the President and Congress annual reports on the activities conducted pursuant to this Act respecting the Weather Modification Subcommittee, including:
(1) a summary of the achievements of federal weather modification research;
(2) an analysis of the progress made toward achieving the goals and objectives of the plan;
(3) a copy or summary of the plan and any changes made to it;
(4) a summary of agency budgets for weather modification activities;
(5) any recommendations regarding additional action or legislation that may be required to assist in achieving the purposes of this Act;
(6) a description of the relationship between research conducted on weather modification and research conducted pursuant to the Global Change Research Act of 1990, as well as research on weather forecasting and prediction; and
(7) a description of any potential adverse consequences on life, property, or water resource availability from weather modification efforts, and any suggested means of mitigating or reducing such consequences if such efforts are undertaken.
Section5 –
Establishes in the Office of Science and Technology Policy the Weather Modification Research Advisory Board to:
(1) make recommendations to the Weather Modification Subcommittee on matters related to weather modification; and
(2) advise such Subcommittee on the research and development, studies, and investigations with respect to potential uses of technologies and observation systems for weather modification research and assessments and evaluations of the efficacy of weather modification, both purposeful, (including cloud-seeding operations) and inadvertent (including downwind effects and anthropogenic effects).
Section6 –
Instructs U.S. departments and agencies and any other public or private agencies and institutions that receive research funds from the United States related to weather modification to give full support and cooperation to the Weather Modification Subcommittee.
Hat? As in tin foil hat? You should stop taking prescription meds and look up at the sky for a minute. Lay off the smack.
I am literally located in a triangle between three military-used air bases (one strictly DOD, the other two used by DOD) and I also happen to see a lot of odd weather here, often extreme cold.
Few commercial flights here, if I hear an aircraft it is usually a private small fixed wing pane, but otherwise, almost always military. And I don’t even live in the south! LOL.
Anyway, most of the chemtrails right here are invisible for that reason, I think.
If the globe gets any warmer……..we’ll all freeze to death!
Haha! Well said!
I have to agree with Dana someones hat is on a little too tight MR&Mrs Ozzyman. Oh and Chris you need to adjust your tinfoil hat too. The early snow is the result of climate change. It is getting cooler has been for the last 20 years or so. The only thing getting warmer is the books that the global warmies have been cooking to keep their gravy train grants coming!
Actually, look it up. They have publicly admitted to chem trails in order to “reduce the effects of global warming” too bad global warming stopped 19 years ago, long before they started.
That’s the problem with a lot of people who label other tinfoil hatter, you tend to be the most willingly uninformed people on the planet, and label people for stating something that is public knowledge.
touche!
BINGO!
Spraying or whatever it is called is real.
I looked up one morning and was shocked called friends that
live near me and they were shocked. Every one busted out with 4 letter words saying what the —-.
As they came together the blue sky was gone for the day.
Before they came together I saw normal aircraft above.
Before I saw this I thought this was a bunch of nuts saying
this. This was upstate NY some years ago.
What the tin-foil cap wearing crowd doesn’t realize is that a clouded sky will retain more heat than a clear one. Sorry to rain on your “conspiracy” theory, but its poppycock.
Weather changes are not caused by just chemically-poisoned chemtrails. The gulf stream ocean current more-or-less died (on the Atlantic side) after the BP oil & corexit disaster in the Gulf of Mexico.
The BP gulf disaster may have done more damage to our weather than chemtrails.
Wow.
A left handed tin foil hat.
That…is….utterly….insane……………..
There has been no change in the Gulf Stream…. If as you state “the Atlantic side” was altered, I wonder what other side you reefer to. …….it’s all in the Atlantic!
Half correct Justin. Yes, the trails are to reduce sunlight by 2% from hitting earth’s surface due to global warming. Called “Project Earth”. Global warming did NOT end 19 years ago, that is when geo began to COOL earth silly, it is the reason for the white out chem skies because the “warming” is coming from the core of the earth and releasing through methane gas explosion abnormalities in abundance which are causing all the global quakes these days. Methane gas releases from the oceans floors, goes in the atmosphere and HEATS. Then for the double wammmy we have a huge ozone depletion going on as well which is causing extreme UV. The chem spraying is gigantic aerosol cans via planes and has been decided the risk of ripping open the ozone layer with more aerosol’s is worth it to COOL the dam surface of the earth. No one is spraying to poison you. Just so happens the spray is poison. Geo is why there is abnormal cooling going on and in conjunction with haarp jet streams are being manipulated as well. Haarp was said, by scientists in arctic news, to be a wonderful addition to be used WITH geo-engineering spray to blast the methane out of the atmosphere. That is it’s purpose according to scientists reports on global warming. WORLD wide spray program.
The sun has little influence, then?
“… we have a huge ozone depletion going on as well which is causing extreme UV. ”
No the EUV is coming from the sun. May be that’s what you meant to say so letsl take a look at how stratosphere temps warmed due to volcanic aerosols and then cooled to be COLDER than they were to start with about 5 years later.
http://climategrog.files.wordpress.com/2014/04/uah_tls_365d.png
now look at how this compares to the extra shortwave radiation ( ie UV ) making it into the lower atmosphere:
http://climategrog.files.wordpress.com/2014/05/erbe_sw_tls.png
An finally compare the changes in stratosphere to sea surface temps on the southern hemisphere:
http://climategrog.files.wordpress.com/2014/07
/tls_icoads_70s-20s.png
The late 20th c. warming that had everyone crapping themselves was mainly due to volcanoes.
Full details on the calculations and UAH TLS data used here:
http://climategrog.wordpress.com/?attachment_id=902
Hawk eye ,do you have sources for this? I mean outside of your own imagination.
Give us a link to the government’s admission. I have a feeling what you believe is an admission and what I read as an admission are two different things.
Bingo eddiebjr bingo. They’ll be blaming man soon.
The only thing getting greener are the bank accounts of alarmists like Gore, Obama and Reid!
I ask this third grade question a lot. It is surprising how few people get it right. ” What is the engine of our climate?” Here is another good one; ” Where is the largest concentration of CO2 on the planet?”
The answers are: The sun. ( All we know of it is what we can observe ) and the oceans ( what we know of how that exchange works is very shallow).
I like hot weather. Global warming has been a bitter disappointment – all promises, no delivery.
Many of my neighbors are neighbors are farmers and ranchers. I think they are unanimous in that the would rather raise crops and livestock in the rain, but not in the snow.
If you like hot weather, I have real estate for sell (great bargain for you) in Baghdad. It get up to 130 in summer and is pleasant heat, my friend. Plenty of sand – no need to bring lawnmower!
If you don like heat, I sell you ship in Antarctica, (once used by climate Scientology experts) it is surrounded by 18 feet of ice – great vacation spot – no annoying neighbors other than pesky curious penguins.
Damn global warming.
yup…GW causes too much snow, too little snow, too much rain, too little rain,…whatever you can name, it causes it.
GW causes seemingly everything BUT measurable global warming.
Nice one Tom. 🙂
It’s either GW or GWB that is to blame.
You nailed it, GW s fault, financed by the Koch Bros, and instigated by the damn Tea-Party.
Don’t worry Obama will fix it…He fixes everything…He single handedly ended the Ukrainian war…He cured everyone with his obamacare… Never fear super Barry is here! UP UP AND TELEPROMPTER AWAY!
That’s KING Barry. Get it right. 😉
You are in serious need of a plexi-glas navel. You are wearing your ( ! ) over you head and about the only way you will see the light of day is with a translucent or transparent navel! Trust me when I say your diet would be much better if you stopped the Kool-ade.
That’s KING PUTT.
The golf monarch?
Until the snow starts falling on his favourite golf course, I doubt Obama will do anything.
As for the seasons shortening, here in Alberta Spring arrived one month late and Autumn has arrived one month early. The forecast calls for snow next week.
I suspect it is the Gore effect writ large.
But if the snow show have to temerity to fall on his fav golf course, he will just ban it through executive action!
But if the snow show have to temerity to fall on his fav golf course, it will not be a problem! He will just ban it through executive action!
Roy,
Give it up already, North Pole Ice Shield is looking much larger then your loser god Al Gore claimed what it would be like at this time. Of course he pretty much said it would be gone by now LMAO.
How about giving up your political shill game? Admit it is a failed science or a half baked one at best!
Hmmm. You must be new around these parts. 😉
Been here a long time. You’re a glorified carny, guessing weight and barking for the Yak woman, and separating stupid people from their money. Cure global warming? Simple. Same method can be used for curing race-baiting. Vote democrats out of existence.
Maybe you should do a little background check before engaging your little brain…Roy is a Climate Skeptic…
I suspect Roy may be a republican too, but don’t try to use mere facts to get in the way of good, bigoted rant.
As for mark olson having a little brain, I don’t see any observation evidence to support such a claim.
Yes. Global Warming, GW, is a lot like another GW. George W. Bush. Whatever happens, it is GW’s fault! One or the other of them, definitely NOT anything the current crew of criminals in DC are doing!
GW is an amazing,awesome theory. Temperatures go up? Global warming. Temperatures go down? Global warming. Too much rain? Global warming Too little rain? Global warming Horrendous snowfall? Global warming. Dearth of snow? Global warming. Is there nothing that cannot be explained by Global warming? Heck, it’s even being blamed for the rise of global terrorism.
The real question is, what, exactly, would dis-prove global warming? Seems as if every event is pointed at as being evidence and substantiation of the theory. Doesn’t seem very scientific to me.
That’s an easy one. A global economic depression in which the greedy dump their carbon trades, Al Gore declares bankruptcy and the World Bank begins to trade in snowplows. Then you’ll know the can has hit the shed, the fat lady has sung and the mule has sat down in the lower forty and refuses to budge. Also, watch for hell freezing – which might be real soon.
Slavery, the Iraq War, the surge of “undocumented aliens”, the failure of Hillary’s book, Al Gore’s bloated belly are examples of the problems caused by global warming.
And, the only things it makes grow are Obama’s and Gore’s bank accounts!
I hate winter. Can I sue Al gore for fraud? Or will his excuse be, that even with the divine support of the obama-sia he cannot control the weather?
It was his divine intervention that warded off the melting of the ice cap! Gore bless us!
Don’t bother Hot Air Gore, he is busy creating a huge carbon footprint on his yacht, in his private jet, or in his million dollar mansions!
Now let’s hear some more lies about climate change (aka global warming).
Glowing Change deniers are slowing sinking in numbers as the reality of life smacks them in the face.
What is the “glowing” of which you speak?? Will it make it easier to drive at night?
ICE AGE/Y 2 K….Now tell me how cow farts and SUV,S are killing the planet ..Oh please tell me
snicker, weather and climate are not the same thing.
Flat earthers are so funny.
There must be a change in weather before there is a change in climate. You’re like the kid who says an ‘F’ on a quiz is no big thing because he’s definitely going to have an ‘A’ average.
Reality deniers are so dense.
I know the difference! If it’s warmer it’s Climate. If it’s colder it’s Weather. I think that’s the way it works.
And it is ALL GW’s fault! If you don’t like it, GW is to blame (Global Warming of GW Bush, take your pick). If you like it then Democrats gave it to you through government action.
Damn George Bush…. its that machine he controls in space,you see..he hates minorities and only wants white people to live with good weather…he has cows on his ranch that fart WAY TOO MUCH…..AL GORE YOU SUCK……
Climate is what you expect, weather is what you get……
Tim, then why are the warmongers resorting to that last hope for their cause: severe WEATHER?
Ok. Please tells us the signs of “Global Warming Tim.
So, at what point does weather become climate? Warming hasn’t occurred in the past 17 years by NOA’s own figures. Is 17 years not long enough to show a trend? What exactly would define such a trend? Given that Michael Mann, et al have had to fudge the data, making “adjustments” that they can’t / won’t explain, it seems the GW followers are the ones who have little to back up their case.
It will only take one En Nino to qualify as climate and negate those 17 years.
Tim….. Cuban Intelligence Services is hiring, you sound perfect for the job.
Climate is what you expect; weather is what you get. But, when the weather consistently differs from the “global warming” alarmist predictions, you have to conclude the climate is not changing as indicated by the true “flat-Earthers.”
Why don’t you explain that weather and climate are not the same to the people that believe in Global Warming, Climate Change, Climate Disruption or what ever you call it next. They are the ones that think Weather = Climate. Every time there is a weather event they blame Climate Change.
One of the most amusing aspects of the global warming debate is the weather/climate routine. If we have a particularly cold December and those evil Deniers point it out, the Alarmists are quick to say, “Oh, but that’s weather! We’re talking about climate!”
But if we have a particularly hot July, it’s suddenly “Global warming in here and this is proof positive!”
It is to laugh.
NOAA says, “Climate refers to the statistics of weather.” You don’t have climate without the existence of weather!
Alarmists just don’t get it!
I’m not so sure about the predicted snow time for Mont/Wyo. In south central Mont. and northern Wyoming, we often have our first snowstorm around the Fall equinox.
Al Bore hardest hit.
If Fore believed Global Warming he’d have bought his ocean front luxury condo in Alaska, not Miami.
It’s 95 in philly after so many beautiful 80 degree days…I thought the poles flipped and we were getting Hawaiian weather now…Now I think it’s equatorial… : )
I realize what I am about to say is anecdotal. I remember the winters we had when I was a boy in the 60s and 70s in central and northern IL. To me the seasons seem to be returning to what I remember them to be in the late 70s early 80s. We usually had snow by or before Thanksgiving day. We had an unusually cool summer this year and I expect a very challenging winter.
Then you also remember that the same idiots howling about climate change now, we’re howling about the next ice age in the 70’s
Please explain this to all the gullible young people you know.
Thanks,,
I remember both of these quite well. What’s odd is some people insist on acting like this cycle is something new or the end of the world. Even more incredulous is the idea that printing money and taxing people will somehow save the day from a nonexistent problem.
Ergo the “real” problem, How to separate people from their money through pseudo-scientific claims! Oh that would be claiming that the planet is going to melt due to anthropogenic global warming oops climate change.
Oh, it’s way more than separating people from their money. It is about creating an aristocracy / serf dichotomy,taking away freedom from the serfs and maintaining that freedom by the aristocracy (as long as they adhere to the liberal orthodoxy) because, after all, that aristocracy is deserving of such luxuries since they toil night and day to make sure the serfs are looked after.
Thus the modern “progressive” movement which mandates we all use light bulbs that give off worse light and are hazardous for disposal, the attack on coal-fired power plants, making people buy dishwashers and dishwasher soap that doesn’t [wash dishes], clothes washers and clothes washer soap that don’t [wash clothes] and any of a myriad of required “green” regulations that actually deliver inferior goods and quality that is reminiscent of previous times, not looking to the future.
The modern “progressive” movement is actually an amalgamation of statists and luddites who want to see civilization go backward,not forward.
Yes, I remember that. I remember a lot of 1970s science fiction set in a future ice age.
Wait! I grew up in northeastern Illinois in the 60s!! Do I know you, Ray? Yes, the winters were fun with good amount of snow, frozen boat harbor where we could ice state, them sit around the bonfire! Returning home all frosty, red faced with the cold, to a cup of hot cocoa! Yep, those were good times!! The last few years, the snow has been returning to Illinois, but the summer was short. No evidence of GW here!
I remember with a great deal of affection, on thanksgiving day, in central Maine, we ate a wonderful turkey dinner with the family all together. After dinner we went to the lake, which was frozen over by several inches if not a foot or more, to ice skate. We warmed ourselves with a bonfire created and sustained with the burning of old used tires, which my Grandfather brought from his automobile service station. Black smoke identified the spot, which also brought more skaters from around the area. What a wonderful childhood memory.
Now, the tires burned completely (you could not put them out if you wanted to). The wire in them was all that was left (and there is probably a lot of that at the bottom of the lake — no I am sure it rusted away, returning the chemicals to the earth from whence it came). A little black smoke and perhaps a few chemicals entered the atmosphere and settled to earth WHICH IS WHERE THEY CAME FROM IN THE FIRST PLACE. So, who got hurt.
Now, we don’t get frozen lakes until mid to late December. Do I think this is Global Warming? NO! I think it is the way weather works. some years are colder than others.
Is the planet warming — absolutely. If it were not, we would still be in the last ice age. So what. Is it caused by humans — right, man really can control the world. NO! Is it the way things are going to be — of course.
Follow the money, then get sick over all the childhood memories which have been turned into the catechism of the progressive (politically correct) establishment of the Global Warming Religion.
Gores pitch made him
Rich
Big Deal. We lived in Montana for 30+ years. Could guarantee snow in the mountains when camping on Memorial day, and Labor day. Seen it snow for the 4th of July parade in Butte. Biggest problem, this will be the wet gloppy snow that breaks branches that haven’t lost all the leaves.
My GW model hasn’t worked for over 17 years! I’ve tried the nature trick, deleted clouds…. warmed the oceans. I’ve tried everything. What am I doing wrong!!!!
You’re not lying yet. Just start making things up and post them on official websites as data. That works really well. Ask NASA and the Australians.
The Aussies are aggressively rolling back on recent AGW legislation. Good for them.
You need to Hide the Decline.
Dr. Spencer, I’m in Traverse City, MI. Lake Michigan is still cold from the polar vortex. I’m thinking Lake Effect will be reduced this year. Does that make sense?
yes, the lakes are unusually cold which, other things being equal, would reduce lake effect in the coming winter.
I’ll never forget being at a climate conference years ago where scientists presented a paper claiming global warming would cause more lake effect because their analyzed weather station data and found lake effect snow totals were the largest with warmer temperatures. But that warmth (I pointed out) is the RESULT of the lake warming the cold air mass. With global warming, you should have warmer airmasses and LESS lake effect.
Whoa!!! Hold on there, fella. Are you saying that just because someone or a group of people conducted a study, that study might not be valid???
Well, I gotta admit, that’s exactly what I learned in grad school, too. It’s amazing how many people think these AGW studies eliminate alternative explanations, properly account for all variables and produce scientific fact. Nearly every study ever made is flawed in some way.
Wow I have to say you are consistantly an idiot to the obvious. When lakes ice over there is no lake effect snow. Because of the lower water temperatures after the ice goes…wetter weather. Warmer water in winter, more lake effect snow. OOOH so smart.
Did you get your degree of common sense out of a Cracker Jacks box. Your theory should dictate more warm water vortexes (hurricanes) multiplying exponentially yet what is happening? All your GW or AGW wisdom makes you look like a fool when you total the results. In Israel they at one time stoned false prophets….be glad your not in that time frame Dr. Soothsayer.
Jammer,
Read what Dr. Roy typed, again.
He did say warmer lake temps increase lake effect.
He is saying with Global Warming.. less cold air masses, more Warm air masses. Warm Lake and Warm air masses equals less or no lake effect.
Less Lake Effect true, that’s a good thing. But I am expecting a complete freeze of the lakes this year which means the water will not be warming the air as it moves across it, instead the iced over lakes keep the air cold and we will see below normal temps sooner and perhaps longer in the season than usual depending on the jet stream. I’m expecting and preparing for bitter cold this year with about the same amount of snow as last year with a 50% chance of more.
But i’m just guessing based on what I have seen, heard on-line…oh and what’s in the Farmers Almanac.
Yep. I’ve feared the same. Once the lakes freeze up we may as well ne in ND.
While on the subject of cold winters and our new nemesis, the “Polar Vortex”, I recently went on a extended driving vacation covering a large portion of our Heartland. I was amazed by the numbers of windmill generators in place. Number one, several of these huge propellers mounted on towers are linked by extremely small power transmission cables, as a steam powerhouse mechanic who regularly gazes at the huge copper cables that come from the generators, I can only surmise that not much power is realized from these green power generators. Also, I wonder if our prevailing winds are diminished (West to East) and allowing more Arctic cold to dip farther South from the wind being obstructed. What I do not know or understand would comprise a large book, but I still observe and wonder.
I certainly hope you are correct in your prediction. Your map under “Update” appears to show the mountains of California getting some share of this by late October. We need the water badly.
However, just this week we were treated to yet more of the dire from the would-be dictators/saviors working for the government who claim we’ll not see any relief in October. It will be interesting to see whose predictions actually come through.
Of course that’s not the only reason I’m smiling. Telling bunch of global warming nut cases where to jump off is always a treat and since they’ve targeted our drought cycle it would be nice to rub a snowball in their faces. :o)
Global warming skeptics miss the point. If you add heat to any system it becomes more chaotic, especially the climate. That’s what we are seeing isn’t it?
If you add heat to any system it becomes warmer.
Mr. Moosemeister is right, Mr. Godwin is making a lot of assumptions that are not necessarly so.
That’s the bottom line with democrats. They know so much that isn’t true. Unfortunately when the amount of them surpasses the sane we get a gov’t full of lies and incompetence.
I don’t think the weather is any more chaotic than the past; I think the press has sensationalized it more. Terms like polar vortex for a cold winter, land hurricanes for a good thunderstorm, etc. makes good news; they are rebranding what has always occurred. Where are the chaotic hurricanes? Remember the year there were 4 in Florida? Now there are none? Too many variables and the models have not been accurate.
Global warming may very well exist, but there certainly isn’t any proof of it. Even if there were proof of warming, there is no proof of its cause.
“If you add heat to any system it becomes warmer.”
I will take ‘adding heat’ to mean the same as ‘adding energy’.
Sorry, but Mr. Moosemeister is not exactly correct in at least one special instance. As Dr. Susskind explains in some detail and derivations near the end of a statistical mechanics course at Stanford when energy is added to particles that are moving about a gravitational field source (spherical) then you would expect adding energy to the particles (think air molecules) would raise the temperature, but no, the particles collectively slow therefore do not speed up and warm but slow down and cool. Follow the mean velocities.
If you ever wonder why the climate is driving you crazy, not doing as you would command, you might just sit through that course if you have 30 extra hours of spare time and consider that point he made.
In order to get cold temps it has to come from someplace the same as warming does. The ones who spout “deniers” and “skeptics” are the ones doing the denying. Your global warming/man made global climate change/climate disruption/ pollution name change scam has been exposed and disproved. Ice gains in both poles now and including their summer months suggest you’ve got to be supporting an ulterior motive (which is what I believe is the truth) or you’re sorely lacking in common sense. Add to it the claim of ocean storage of both temp and CO2, but as late as this last week we find that temps didn’t change, that the release caused a cooling effect which sent the temps back down, and the so called storage theory is debunked.
When do you admit failure, or at least disappear like the rest when they get caught?
My Engineering Physics classes and Lab sessions tended to reveal that when heat was added to a system, it became warmer.
@ John Goodwin. Where is it proven that the climate is “more” chaotic now?
That after billions of years to now have constant polar caps and somewhat regular returning and very long lasting ice age regimes on this planet is more of a concern to me. When the ice caps are gone, then “maybe” I’ll worry.
The energy imbalance (theoretically calculated) due to increasing CO2 is only about 1% (about 2.5 Watts/sq. m). This is too small (in my opinion) to have an effect that rises above natural variability.
Also, given that CO2 is absorbed only at specific lines in the spectrum, there comes a point where no matter how much more CO2 you pump in, you get no more absorbtance.
that’s all taken into account in the theory. Also, pressure broadening of the narrow absorption lines leads to greater influence over wider range of wavelengths. But, no question, the CO2 absorption is mostly saturated. It’s the small portion that isn’t that leads to the small DIRECT warming effects. Larger INDIRECT warming in climate models occurs through positive feedbacks, most of which I don’t believe exist.
Dr. Spenser, is the logarithmic effects of CO2 an accepted fact, or a disputed matter. If this is true, why is it not more widely disseminated?
Arrhenius revised his estimates of the effects of doubling CO2 to be a temperature rise of around 2 degrees C, I believe. Of course in those times they had no hope of measuring the average temperature of the earth to anything like 1 degree accuracy.
Having at one time had to measure various temperatures to 0.1 degree accuracies (skin and core temperature of an astronaut as we cooked him in an altitude temperature chamber to test ventilation effectiveness of various full pressure suits) I have some appreciation of how difficult it is to measure even a specific temperature to 0.1 degrees; in our case it took a series of thermocouples, with a reference thermocouple inserted in a beaker of melting ice made from distilled water. That leaves me wondering how I would go about getting the average temperature of Los Angeles County at any given moment to an accuracy of 0.1 degree, after which I might contemplate what measures to take to get an average temperature of North America, at a given moment in time. Solving that might lead to estimates of the average temperature of Earth for a period of a year., But then I tend to think in terms of what instruments to deploy.
And having done that I am wondering how I could get, accurate to 0.1 degree, the annual temperature of Earth in 1880. I know the sea temperatures would have been taken by sailors with buckets of water and mercury thermometers and recorded in logs, but I really doubt the reliability (to 0.1 degree) of the readings of those old mercury thermometers.
Which leaves me in a bit of a quandary when asked if I believe in Global Warming. Of course I do: in 1776 they could drag cannons captured at Ticonderoga across the frozen Hudson to the aid of General Washington on Harlem Heights and no one thought that odd; now the Hudson doesn’t freeze so solid. Of course the earth is warmer. How much warmer is a bit more difficult to determine. How much of that is dues to CO2 is a fun problem, but I do not think we have very accurate estimates of that. But certainly it is getting warmer — well, or it did, up until about the turn of the 20th to 21st Centuries, after which the warming trend seems to have slowed. But thin it did that in the 70’s, when AAAS meetings had sessions on global cooling and books about The Genesis Strategy were being published…
Jerry Pournelle
Jerry said,
“Arrhenius revised his estimates of the effects of doubling CO2 to be a temperature rise of around 2 degrees C, I believe.”
This is incorrect. His 1906 estimate for the direct, no-feedback, effect of doubling CO2 was 2.1 deg. C. With water vapour feedback his estimate was 3.9 deg. C.
The Friends of Science Society has just finished an English translation from the original German of Svante Arrhenius, 1906 paper. In this paper, Arrhenius revised downward his previously estimated effect of doubling CO2 (including water vapour feedback) from 5 deg. C to 3.9 deg. C, By comparison, the climate model mean estimate is 3.2 deg. C. Arrhenius also estimated the direct effect of doubling CO2 (without a change of water vapour) at 2.1 deg. C. The corresponding climate model mean estimate is 1.16 deg. C. Arrhenius also concludes that changes to CO2 can’t explain the ice ages. See:
http://www.friendsofscience.org/index.php?id=816
So, John Godwin’s reasoning, is based on the fact that the earth is heating up and causing chaos throughout the world? If that’s true, then we have a real crisis on our hands! Since the moon is made out of cheese and when the sky starts to fall, the Human race could be buried in Fondue. We may not have enough bread.
That’s the harsh reality of living on the surface of a planet heated by a big ball of burning hydrogen, it get’s warm. Let’s hope that our orbit doesn’t drift too much. Have you got a fix for that John. How about an anti-drift tax? Think that might make everyone happy and feel safe? Good luck to all those orbital drift skeptics that are missing the point.
It seems to all come down the the desire / need for people to feel like they can make a difference and “do something” to solve/prevent a problem. That’s how the left has hooked the low-info crowd. “Save the planet!”, “Do your part to prevent global warming!”, “Our green products help you make a difference!” all pander to the nature of people to have meaning and to contribute positively.
We have the same thing in microcosm where we live. We live off a dirt road that is privately owned and maintained. Many of the people in the neighborhood have been convince that to prevent the road from deteriorating. That means that one can wind up behind someone doing less than 10 MPH on the way home. Thing is, simple observation would show that this is flawed logic. Our road gets graded and remains in good shape until the desert summer or winter rains hit — then the cloudbursts wash ditches into the road. The problem is not people driving fast, the problem is driving rain. The thing is, people have no control over the latter, but can pretend they are making a difference by “doing something” even if it is irrelevant and ineffective.
Umm, that one sentence should have said:
Many of the people in the neighborhood have been convinced that to prevent the road from deteriorating, they must drive slowly.
You make the assumption that earth has a bubble around it to holds the heat… which if you lived in Wisconsin you would know is not the case on a cloudless night in January. Moisture is the holder of heat….that must mean it is going to get cold this winter with all that massive arctic ice build up that the scientists like to dismiss. How much larger is it and how much thicker is it today?
Adding calories to the atmosphere causes snow.. Hmmm interesting theory.
We warned you about those Twinkies.
@john godwin: yeah, every spring the sun adds heat to the temperate regions of the earth, and chaos breaks out all over the place! So much chaos that people flee the added heat for…more added heat, as the Europeans do when they head for the Mediterranean. And in America, we actually flee with winter cold to embrace Florida’s winter chaos!
But what about tornadoes (limited to the North American continent) and hurricanes/typhoons? Well, the cold-weather analogs of these warm weather storms are blizzards and less-powerful winter storms. And, of course, India and large parts of Asia rely on monsoons brought by warm weather.
Some “chaos”!
DENIER! SKEPTIC! SACRILEGE! HERETIC! YOU’LL KILL US ALL!
At least they don’t burn us at the stake for disagreeing any more.
Give it time.
That’s because we are the ones who have the guns. For now.
Thank you Dr Spencer. Having lived in TC MI for over 40 years I can tell you that the Lakes knock the bitter out of the cold from Canada. Until they freeze.
WHAT HAS THE WORLD RENOWNED AND NOBEL PRIZE WINNING CLIMATOLOGIST DR E-GORE HAVE TO SAY ABOUT THIS?
You’ll have to wait. He’s trying to get Al Jazeera to pay up right now. He can only handle one lemon sale at a time.
Desperate days for the warmers. Desperate days indeed.
I buy almost everything except food and clothing from online auctions most people aren’t aware of the almost I unbelievable deals that they can get from online auction sites the site that has the best deals is
>>> W w w.BlazeideaC0M
I checked with the BBB and was told that it is all legit. How they can sell gift cards, laptops, cameras, and all kinds of goodies that we all want for 50-90% off, I don’t know I do know that I bought my son an ipad there for less than $100 and my husband a $250 Low gift cards for $48. Why would I even think about shopping anyþlace else ?
Dr. Spencer, you need to get your mind right. Don’t you know that weather events can only be cited when they SUPPORT global warming?
so I’ve heard…
You guys don’t get it global warming causes global cooling.
Science is NOT constant. As a science teacher who was taught in the late 60s early 70s about “ecology”, we were told that man was effecting the environment. Yeah, we were leaving trash around, dumping stuff in the water etc. Along with that, we were told we would over populate the earth by 1985-1995 with up to 4 billion people. Oops! We were also told that an ice age would come. Then big money went to universities and institutions that would sign on to “man caused” everything on earth. So, the money says it’s warming, so it’s warming and you rig the data to show that or so that it matches the hypothesis you have carefully formulated. We’ve seen some data quietly withdrawn or changed to better suit the warmers beliefs. Dr. Spenser is careful and not bent and shaped by the money. I respect that. One last thing. Where is it written that man, invincible man, has the power and ability to alter God’s planet? We can spill some oil or drop a wrapper but change weather?
It already snowed in Alaska as well. In the mountains last week in Denali national park and the town of tok a few days ago.
I thought it always snowed in Alaska…. 😉
Looks like Penn and Livingston were right after all. Grand Minima, here we come.
Solar physics (real science) seems to trump politicized faux climate “science”.
Ummm…Alaska is a state. It has and will snow in numerous places here as well. In fact we got snow on the mountains twice in July and once in early August around Wasilla and Anchorage.
Alaska is a state?? I’ll believe that when Hawaii is made a state!!
Careful. You’re setting yourself up to be called a “birther” by a very very important person.
Obama important?
Expect to be interviewed by the secret service before supper and an IRS audit the first thing next week.
Roy…we.like to keep that lie alive. Keeps our population down.
You’d be surprised how many times I hear “sorry…we don’t ship to foreign countries” while trying to order something from the lower 48.
In Libtardia weather is climate change.
What’s the difference between something man-made, and something natural? No, seriously! Isn’t mankind, on earth, a natural phenomena? If man is natural to earth (and I’m pretty sure he is), isn’t everything he produces natural? So, if mankind has produced automobiles, and oil, and refined the oil, and burned the gasoline, producing increased levels of CO in the lower atmosphere, isn’t that natural?
The depth of frost in the soil here in North Dakota until late April 2014 was seven feet! The 2014 growing season has been very short and – in our area – day temperatures stayed below 90F. Still, large farm, GMO crops have been amazingly productive. + I must agree with someone’s observation above regarding chlorosis in trees and perennial grasses. Everything NOT GMO is what I call ‘poison apple green’ and has been for at least 10 years. We are being Carthaged.
Man is nothing but a nat on a horses arse. One good global shake and we are gone. Only fools think we are smart enough to fully understand how we and terrra earth interact. Carry on and respect nature to the best of our abilty without stupid liberal knee jerk hopes of crushing the middle class with more taxes.
I am combining a few comments from above to make my point. The last century of obvious global warming (20th century) has propped up a huge human population. I am more scared of global cooling or even prolonged stasis than I am warming. We are at carrying capacity for much of the globe and a 20% decrease in crop yield (arbitrary number) for a decade would be catastrophic. We have already proven that natural climate trends can go against any warming CO2 increases have generated in the last 20yrs. Strong cooling could start something nasty.
Aaron, we only have to look at the ethanol production to see starving people. So strong cooling could start something nasty indeed…
I’ve got a link for you with a short comment that you made with the kitten video (August 25). (Solanki 11000 years of sunspot data)
It is almost unspeakably unbelievable how stupid Drudge Report commenters are.
I just saw the map for the Boulder, Colorado area and mid-October is about right. The earliest I ever saw it snow, was in the beginning of October. However, I believe it was back around ’98, when we had a “White Christmas,” and on New Year’s Day, it shot-up to a sunny 72º, in Boulder, for a day or two.
Because global warming is a religion, the warmists find it very difficult to admit their errors.
As I sit here admiring my Nobel Science Prize, I tell you with a perfectly straight face that this snow is absolutely, unquestionably due to man-caused Global Warming renamed Climate Change.
Jim curtis. This was the second weak el nino during this hiatus phase… that is part of the point of frustration on this page. Your argument is loosing validity. If CO2 was driving surface warming, then it would continue to warm. But CO2 has increased but has not over ridden the natural system which includes warming and cooling and stasis.
By the way if u do the math, then an el nino of the same strength of the 97 98 one will not catch up to the mean ipcc model predictions. In 4 years the next el nino will even have more work to do. The models are wrong… just let your faith in them go.
I intended sarcasm, but appreciate your facts.
Why don’t you get it? Without the climate lies the socialist left stands no chance of a carbon tax on everything you. They require this lie, which is why Hillary repeated the same set of socialist lies that Kerry uses and Gore. IT IS REQUIRED…..GET IT? They cannot compete at any level with capitalism and must therefore destroy its foundation. Speaking of foundations, they couldn’t compete in the arena of ideas either so they had to become anti foundationalists so they could attack Rationalism head on. It worked because of the socialist infiltration of educational systems all over the world. The end game? No personal liberty. No private property. They have to go for the socialists to control it all.
Dr. Spencer,
Call me a flat earth “denier”, but I have always wondered why they would use Mona Loa for CO2 measurements. It is an active volcano which pumps out varying amounts of CO2, on average, enough for a town with a 40,000 population. Makes no sense to this “denier”. Can you tell me why this is the data used?
Which brings to mind, if we are gonna use CO2 data observed from an active volcano (Mona Loa), shouldn’t we take methane data just outside of a coal mine? Just applying the same logic…
Kickstand,
Dr. Spencer isn’t what i’d call a skeptic, I’d say he is a scientist who knows bullpoop when he sees it.
Dr. Spencer,
1.Has the driving force of last years crazy cold weather pattern been removed? Ie- are the pacific water temperatures closer to normal? And if yes…is that pattern finished with?
2. Is an el nino pattern in the process of developing or has it already developed?
3. What effect will the el nino have on our winter in the midwest?
4. What is the scientific explanation for why this july was so cold in the midwest for the 2nd year in a row?
Thanks for all your work!
Roy- a question- Hasn’t CO2 been MUCH higher in the past?
Kickstand,
We are actually living during a time the atmosphere is starved for CO2. For most of earths history, it has been MUCH higher, well over 3,000 ppm. Oceans didnt acidify, limestone reefs thrived….
Jammer,
Lay off the wine….
Funny how it has been cooler for the past 20 years yet these nuts still think there is global warming
Yes,,,,, others have alluded to this but seriously.
Was it the cover of Popular Science or perhaps Popular Mechanics? Pretty sure the former, if not both! During the 70s, don’t recall the exact year. …. right on the cover…
“The Coming Ice Age”……
To hear it told, we were DOOMED! Just like Algore now claims. Do you know, or recall, what happened? 1988 is what happened. Some of the warmest weather in decades. And with that, the global warming buffoons were off and running and haven’t stopped since.
I remember as a child growing up in the 50’s and 60’s hearing in science class about the coming ice age and being scared to death. I am so glad that was wrong and the brilliant Al Gore figured it all out for us. People worship creation and not the Creator in the Church Rev. Gore preaches in.
Jammer,
At least your last post was more coherent. Btw, as I help my kids with spelling, I’ll help you, it’s kool-aid…..
Big Boa,
I was in 6th grade when Weekly Reader claimed on the front page that we are entering a new ice age, had a big pic of an iceberg if I remember correctly. All one has to do is look at past predictions and you’ll realize they do a lot of guessing….
I’ve got pretty good weather data going back to ’94 on where I live. In 20 years, we’ve had our first snow in September 8 times. The earliest in this time frame was on 9/16/06. Now most of the time it has been a quick snow, maybe a few more here and there and then a nice lazy Indian summer until after Thanksgiving, maybe into December.
In those twenty years, twice we’ve had snow as late as June and in my life time, I’ve seen snow on the ground in every month of the year. One year when I was little (I am now pushing my way into my sixth decade … groan)we were going up into the mountains for the 4th of July. We didn’t because it was just too doggone cold here, let alone up there. We woke up the morning of the 4th with snow on the ground. It didn’t last much past 7 a.m.or so, but it was definitely snow. That was in the early sixties.
Where I am is on the rolling plains east of the Rocky Mountains at an elevation of 4500 ft. Not much between here and the North Pole but a few telephone poles. (Well, and a few Canadians I suppose… grin)
The only thing I can say for sure is that the weather around here has always been interesting and looking through the long term weather records that I don’t think NOAA has gotten their cotton pickin’ hands on, there is not much for trending one way or the other. It depends on where you break it off and where you start whether it is an up trend, flat trend or downtrend. But I will say this, it seems to me that the cloudiness the last couple of years has seemed to change. I don’t know if it is a matter of more clouds or more effective clouds (i.e more dense, less “leak” through of sunshine) but it definitely seems different.
The last couple of years we just have not had the extreme terribly hot days of about the last decade or so. My old bones say it is not warming around here, it is going the other direction. And honestly, the old bones don’t like it all that well.
Anthropogenic global warming is a fraud. The facts are very simple:
Earth makes 186 gigatons of CO2 every year. Most of it is from the decomposition of limestone and the 1,000 volcanoes that errupt every year More is from the decay of dead plants and animals. Man makes only six gigatons, 3.22% and of that the US makes 20%, 0.0065% of the total and with it we make 50% of Earth’s fuel, fiber and food.
If Mr. Obama is successful he will destroy our economy and cause more CO2 production as less efficient countries will have to fill their needs with less efficient technology or we will have wars for food.
The ironic fact is: CO2 is a “trace gas” in air and insignificant by definition. It absorbs 1/7th as much IR, heat energy, from sunlight as water vapor which has 188 times as many molecules capturing 1200 times as much heat as CO2 or 99.9% of all “global warming.” CO2 does only 0.1% of it. For this we should destroy our economy?
The Medieval Warming from 800 AD to 1300 AD that Micheal Mann erased to make his “hockey stick” was several degrees warmer than anything “global warmers” fear. It was the longest recorded time, 500 years, of peace with great abundance for all.
The Vostock Ice Core data analysis show CO2 increases followed temperature increases by 800 years 19 times over 450,000 years. That makes temperature change cause and CO2 change effect. This alone refutes the anthropogenic global warming hypothesis.
Carbon combustion generates 80% of our energy. Control and taxing of carbon would give the elected ruling class more power and money than anything since the Magna Carta of 1215 AD.
Most scientists and science educators work for tax supported institutions eager to help government raise more money for them. And, they love being seen as “saving the planet.”
Google “Two Minute Conservative,” and when you speak you they will listen.
Wyoskeptic,
I live in Oklahoma, I wore a sweatshirt outside this morning, as I did 2-3 days in July…. July? Really? Cool summer this year and a horrible winter… But that is just weather…. One thing is for sure though, take a look at past predictions of the AGW or Climat Change crowd or whatever the flavor of the month, they are really bad at predicting, they should never go to Vegas….
Oh, I should have said that the data I have on the area goes back to around 1905. Multiple sites, some good, some not so good, some with data with only a few days missing, some with gaps of a couple of decades. But all in all if there is any sign of ongoing warming trends beyond normal variations, danged if I see it.
Wyoskeptic,
In Oklahoma, from May thru September, I don’t ever remember wearing a sweatshirt. It is usually hot and humid…. But that is weather as they say… But look at the water temperature of the Great Lakes. If East Coast folks think last year was cold, just wait…
Ryk,
When school is out we head to Colorado Springs… Windmills exist on the backs of taxpayers as well as dead birds and bats, they are a scourge upon the landscape….
Jim Curtis I am so sorry I thought you were being serious…. haha.
I do want to point out one thing weather operates under one set of drivers usually air currents and ocean currents like the PDO, whereas climate is driven partially by other feedbacks like albedo, atm concentration of ghg, and solar processes (be it milankovitch orbital parameters or solar activity and the output of energy and magnetics). There is a link obviously but they are 2 different things and they both vary through time. Understanding the link is the difficulty as feedbacks are tricky business. So in theory Earth can have cooling weather because of a negative PDO during a warming climate from ghg. Of course anyone who follows this page knows i believe the sun is the major driver and co2 is relatively weak.
Aaron,
Well said….
Dr. Spencer,
The AGW folks are trying to cover their tracks with “the heat must be going someplace”. Someone comes out with a theory that is must be stored in the mid ocean depths. Is this from actual measurements or just based on a theory and conveniently this is a difficult place to get a history of measured data?
Paul
@Paul Hunter:
“the heat must be going someplace”
Ok, just to “cherry picking”, here in Italy we had a very rainy and “cold” summer (I put it between quotation marks just because I very liked it; I don’t really like hot summers), but TV news and newspapers already started to say that North Europe, especially Sweden, Norway and Finland this year have got an “unusual” hot summer.
🙂
Have a nice day.
Massimo
@Jerry Pournelle:
“Arrhenius revised his estimates of the effects of doubling CO2 to be a temperature rise of around 2 degrees C, I believe. Of course in those times they had no hope of measuring the average temperature of the earth to anything like 1 degree accuracy.”
So now, “the average temperature of the earth”… Can we measure it better?
Are you joking, of course. 🙂
Have a great day.
Massimo
Global Warming? How much more will this phony, hoax be spread before the truth is exposed that it is the Solar flares, and changes in the wind patterns and ocean currents that determine climate. I guess it will never register with the low information dunderheads and agenda driven activists.
Ryk E Lee commented on the possibility that large numbers of windmills could affect prevailing winds. Does a bear eat in the woods? We have thousands of windmills extracting millions of watts of power from natural air currents. But, has anyone built a computer model to predict the contribution of the windmills to “climate change”? We know that there is no direct correlation between the CO2 content of our atmosphere and average temperature, but I think it is obvious that you can’t do something that affects the wind without affecting the weather.
The arrogance to whit people have convinced themselves they or the government can control the weather is astounding. The weather of the earth is a complex mechanism, one thing or two things or 1000 things are not going to me enough to change the weather. Weather is cyclical in nature AS FAR AS THE EXPERTS can tell and that really isn’t much. We should stop worrying about what we can’t change and start worrying about what we can change. People making money off fraud, waste and abuse. Money that’s been made from”global warming” needs to be put back into the countries that have had to pay for it. Mr Gore and his ilk need to go to jail for fraud like Bernie Madoff. Then maybe we can get down to the real business of liberty, freedom, justice and mercy.
Poor Dr. Spencer. He planned for a quiet cocktail party with a few friends and dozens of loud drunken bums show up, with kegs. Nothing like a Drudge link, eh, Doc?
No time for a cocktail party, too busy unloading the boxes of money I get from Exxon-Mobil, dontcha know.
Dr. Spencer, I guess you can count me as one of the people that have found your web site due to the link in Drudge. Hopefully you won’t hold that against me. I must admit intellectual laziness in not finding your site myself sooner. I wanted to thank you for being a leading voice of reason (some would say dissent) regarding the politically and monetarily driven theory of climate change. It concerns me greatly that climate change continues to be sold to the people as settled science. Even when it is repeatedly shown that the data is flawed (and/or manipulated) and the models used to paint the most dire consequences consistently produce flawed results. If I hear “consensus” one more time on this subject, I may need to hit my head against a wall. Now off to get better educated by reading over your site. Cheers.
This map based on the NAM shows most of the snow in Alberta and BC:
http://www.meteoexploration.com/maproom/snowmapsUS.php
Just because Al Gore believes it, doesn’t make it science
Blaming global warming for everything is no different than blaming “The Devil” for all the evils in the world.
Its a new form of faith, the Cult of the Warming Earth, with high priest Albert Gore.
“Worship the Warming Earth to prevent its destruction!”
“Fossil Fuels are the tools of The Dev… err.. Global Warming!”
“Your families will die in the coming environmental apocalypse!”
Its just another doomsday cult.
It’s truly a great and useful piece of info. I’m satisfied that you simply shared this helpful info with
us. Please stay us up to date like this. Thanks for sharing.
This is very helpful. Thank you for the information. I normally get this kind of data in the back of men’s magazines, but it’s helpful to have it on a scientific site regarding climate change. Your diligence is greatly appreciated.
Not by fire but by ice….. iceagenow dot c o m.
Amazing Fact : October 31st, 2013
Mount Holly, NJ
First Snow of Winter 2013-2014
1/2 an inch on the ground.
These are very interesting facts.
According to the first snow chart, it would seem that the current pattern is what would _on average_ happen in mod October.
I clicked the “Stephen Hawking: God particle could wipe out the universe…” link at Drudge and got here. Which is it, particles or warming? The end of everything comes so often I lose track.
Not to be left out, I predict that a green slime big enough to consume the world, the universe, the multiverse, and maybe even Hawking’s ego will do it. (Note: Please contact my publicist for the proper name spelling, press releases, and paid appearances. Together, we can stop this disaster if we act now. Seriously.)
(PS: We also have a website where you can purchase slime credits and make donations for further slime research.)
“…green slime…”
No, it is green VINES. See “Jayce and the Wheel Warriors” (1985). I had to watch all 65 episodes, since my small children liked it very much. The threat was never resolved. Now it is back!
I’ll correct that on the website. When I heard the voices, it sounded like “slime”.
On the “first snow” map BC is in the same band as southern California. We actually do get snow in Vancouver. Way more than LA.
Correction “southwest BC”
Gee thanks guys who do I get to blame. Oh we have already had snow in the Big Horn Mountains of northern Wyoming.
Those individuals that use the labels:
“Tin foil hat”
and
“Kool-Aid”
Are more often than not, uninformed, living in denial and at a loss for any meaningful debate for lack of knowledge, and that’s just how they want you……….dumb and docile.
There are far more conspiracies in this world than there are conspiracy theories.
Okay great. Thanks Fonzarelli… got it.
ftp://ftp.ncdc.noaa.gov/pub/data/paleo/climate_forcing/solar_variability/solanki2004-ssn.txt
I will explain as best I can the errors and facts that I have gathered.
Global warming is a real phenomenon. The true debate is whether humans or man’s action is the cause. According to the United Nation’s report, there is a 10 percent chance that we are in fact just seeing natural change.
All Gore’s data was misleading due to time frame and scaling factors.
A situation such as global warming can cause areas to experience periods of cool weather, particles in the air can refract sunlight.
Climate is not weather as many have pointed out. Climate is the average of weather over an extended period of time. I.e.30 years.
Data now tends to be more accurate or defined differently. For example hurricane Katrina was a category 5 storm, OVER THE OCEAN. By the time it hit New Orleans it was more of a category 3. We all remember and record it as a 5. Differing measurement systems are important to take into context.
Many of you mentioned 17 years. May I remind you that even though this is a long period of time it is not enough to get the most accurate results.
Truly laughable post on so many levels. You claimed to present facts then stated:
“Global warming is a real phenomenon.”
How do you know since the satellites used to measure it including UAH data if memory serves only samples the globes surface from the equator to 60 deg latitude. In addition, as I’ve mentioned several times the data-set has been adjusted several times itself. In any case, without providing the requisite evidence this proves to be merely opinion. You go on:
“The true debate is whether humans or man’s action is the cause.”
We wouldn’t want one of those phony debates, now would we?
“According to the United Nation’s report, there is a 10 percent chance that we are in fact just seeing natural change.”
In other words they don’t know! While it may be a fact that someone in the U.N. believes this you’ve provided no empirical evidence one way or another. You then state:
“All Gore’s data was misleading due to time frame and scaling factors.”
That’s all? You do remember he apparently admitted that his support for ethanol had little if any scientific basis. You further state:
“A situation such as global warming can cause areas to experience periods of cool weather…”
Like the continental U.S. for a period of almost a decade. You do realize NOAA set up temperature monitoring stations throughout the U.S. to measure surface temps and if I remember correctly recorded a .4 deg celsius declined from ~2005 to recently.
http://wattsupwiththat.com/2014/06/07/noaa-shows-the-pause-in-the-u-s-surface-temperature-record-over-nearly-a-decade/
You then attempt to persuade by stating:
“Climate is not weather as many have pointed out. Climate is the average of weather over an extended period of time. I.e.30 years.”
Couldn’t be 17 years or maybe 50? You go on:
“Many of you mentioned 17 years. May I remind you that even though this is a long period of time it is not enough to get the most accurate results.”
This proves laughable on a moments reflection. The more data you have over a longer period of time should provide you with more comprehensive information than less whatever the time period, but not necessarily more accurate. If your instrumentation proves faulty more data over a longer period of time only means more accumulated error! Assuming the data has not been adjusted, the instrumentation and execution of measurements prove adequate and everything runs perfectly the most that can be claimed is that more data over a longer period of time provides you more information. Accuracy is another topic all together.
Have a great day!
Correction to post above:
UAH MSU satellite data apparently covers to 85 deg latitude above and below the equator. Wikipedia claims:
“Geographic coverage[edit]
Data are available as global, hemispheric, zonal, and gridded averages. The global average covers 97-98% of the earth’s surface, excluding only latitudes above +85 degrees, below -85 degrees and, in the cases of TLT and TMT, some areas with land above 1500 m altitude. The hemispheric averages are over the northern and southern hemispheres 0 to +/-85 degrees. The gridded data provide an almost global temperature map.[3]”
Please excuse my error.
Have a great day!
Let’s not forget the adjustments though:
UAH version Main adjustment Trend correction Year
A Simple bias correction 1992
B Linear diurnal drift correction -0.03 1994
C Removal of residual
annual cycle related to
hot target variation 0.03 1997
D Orbital decay 0.10 1998
D Removal of dependence
of time variations of
hot target temperature -0.07 1998
5.0 Non-linear diurnal correction 0.008 2003
5.1 Tightened criteria for data acceptance -0.004 2004
5.2 Correction of diurnal drift adjustment 0.035 2005
5.3 Annual cycle correction 0 2009
5.4 New annual cycle 0 2010
Wikipedia claim. Please Roy if you read this post, let us know what all the adjustments are if this proves inaccurate.
Have a great day!
The atmosphere is not only the troposphere.
http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/stratosphere/strat_a_f/gif_files/gfs_z100_nh_f00.gif
See the forecast temperature at a height of 3500 m in the northern hemisphere.
http://earth.nullschool.net/#2014/09/16/0600Z/wind/isobaric/700hPa/overlay=temp/orthographic=-88.13,73.52,419
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