Home/BlogThe Version 6.0 global average lower tropospheric temperature (LT) anomaly for September, 2017 was +0.54 deg. C, up from the August, 2017 value of +0.41 deg. C (click for full size version):
Global area-averaged lower tropospheric temperature anomalies (departures from 30-year calendar monthly means, 1981-2010). The 13-month centered average is meant to give an indication of the lower frequency variations in the data; the choice of 13 months is somewhat arbitrary… an odd number of months allows centered plotting on months with no time lag between the two plotted time series. The inclusion of two of the same calendar months on the ends of the 13 month averaging period causes no issues with interpretation because the seasonal temperature cycle has been removed as has the distinction between calendar months.
The global, hemispheric, and tropical LT anomalies from the 30-year (1981-2010) average for the last 21 months are:
YEAR MO GLOBE NHEM. SHEM. TROPICS
2016 01 +0.55 +0.72 +0.38 +0.85
2016 02 +0.85 +1.18 +0.53 +1.00
2016 03 +0.76 +0.98 +0.54 +1.10
2016 04 +0.72 +0.85 +0.58 +0.93
2016 05 +0.53 +0.61 +0.44 +0.70
2016 06 +0.33 +0.48 +0.17 +0.37
2016 07 +0.37 +0.44 +0.30 +0.47
2016 08 +0.43 +0.54 +0.32 +0.49
2016 09 +0.45 +0.51 +0.39 +0.37
2016 10 +0.42 +0.43 +0.42 +0.47
2016 11 +0.46 +0.43 +0.49 +0.38
2016 12 +0.26 +0.26 +0.27 +0.24
2017 01 +0.32 +0.31 +0.34 +0.10
2017 02 +0.38 +0.57 +0.19 +0.07
2017 03 +0.22 +0.36 +0.09 +0.05
2017 04 +0.27 +0.28 +0.26 +0.21
2017 05 +0.44 +0.39 +0.49 +0.41
2017 06 +0.21 +0.33 +0.10 +0.39
2017 07 +0.29 +0.30 +0.27 +0.51
2017 08 +0.41 +0.40 +0.41 +0.46
2017 09 +0.54 +0.51 +0.57 +0.53
The linear temperature trend of the global average lower tropospheric temperature anomalies from January 1979 through September 2017 remains at +0.13 C/decade.
The UAH LT global anomaly image for September, 2017 should be available in the next few days here.
The new Version 6 files should also be updated in the coming days, and are located here:
Lower Troposphere: http://vortex.nsstc.uah.edu/data/msu/v6.0/tlt/uahncdc_lt_6.0.txt
Mid-Troposphere: http://vortex.nsstc.uah.edu/data/msu/v6.0/tmt/uahncdc_mt_6.0.txt
Tropopause: http://vortex.nsstc.uah.edu/data/msu/v6.0/ttp/uahncdc_tp_6.0.txt
Lower Stratosphere: http://vortex.nsstc.uah.edu/data/msu/v6.0/tls/uahncdc_ls_6.0.txt
It’s been a total washout in the UK this summer, September was pretty poor as well. Starting to see Artic ice growing quite dramatically. Big concerns about a cooling world and lower crop production, which we have no plan for.
No evidence of any cooling so far. It has been quite a long wait!
Yes, Artic sea ice is growing as it does every year at this time after it passes the September minimum. Propagandist claims are meaningless unless you provide some DATA and COMPARISONS.
It’s quite clear that datasets are being manipulated. Real science shows evidence of this manipulation and shows how to remove this manipulation. Artic sea ice is above 1971 levels before steep artic sea ice gains. Record September Artic sea ice gain for September. Volcanoes going off all over the place, as a result of cosmic rays and cooling sun. Bit of an inconvenient truth for you. No good showing you the truth, because you want to believe Fear. False evidence appearing real.
tim says:
“Record September Arctic sea ice gain for September.”
Not true, according to N.S.I.D.C. data. 1980’s gain was 0.32 Mkm2 (Sept avg – August avg). This year was second, at 0.29 Mkm2.
But this doesn’t tend to be a good predictor of the next year’s minimum. (For example, 2017 saw a record low maximum Arctic SIE.)
Great idea, show us the truth. But so far the only “truth” You are able to show is that;
“Its quite clear that datasets are being manipulated”
So in lack off any data that has not have been manipulated, You are clueless regarding global temperature or any other climate data.
Please explain WHY it is “quite clear”. Please explain HOW “real science” shows what you claim. And no links to sites without scientific qualifications.
Believing the planet is warming because of man, is as stupid as believing the world is flat. I am coming to the conclusion that those with degrees can’t think for themselves and believe teacher on blind faith.
So no science then – as I suspected.
tim says:
October 3, 2017 at 3:45 AM
“Believing the planet is warming because of man, is as stupid as believing the world is flat. I am coming to the conclusion that those with degrees cant think for themselves and believe teacher on blind faith.”
“What can be asserted without evidence can be dismissed without evidence.”
– Christopher Hitchens, 2003 Slate article
tim says:
“Believing the planet is warming because of man, is as stupid as believing the world is flat.”
Why?
well he believes a belief if wrong..
Tim
Do you know about the fallacy of personal incredulity?
You should look it up.
http://trulyfallacious.com/logic/logical-fallacies/relevance/argument-from-personal-incredulity
test
Also, there’s a 2 Year Sea Level Pause.
Weather Bell is going to have about +.28c.
How could it be so different?
I guess I will average them. I hate when there is such a large difference.
In addition for the last 7 days going back from today Weather Bell has a plus .15c temperature anomaly.
Salvatore Del Prete says:
September 5, 2017 at 8:27 AM
The over all trend for year 2017 is down and Sep. will not be as warm as Aug.
http://www.drroyspencer.com/2017/09/uah-global-temperature-update-for-august-2017-0-41-deg-c/#comment-261192
Different baseline period?
Antarctica was wicked cold last month how far south latitude does the satellite global coverage go? Maybe that was not incorporated?
Have they ever established a correlation to increasing troposphere temperatures after increasing hurricane activity? This being a year with a La Nina forming and the large number of storms, some of them reaching major status and remaining major for such long periods of time.
Could the energy released by these hurricanes be enough to increase troposphere temperatures?
Thanks.
Increased precipitation activity is the main reason for a surge in tropospheric temperatures. Whether it was the hurricanes that did it is uncertain…I doubt it, since the SH also warmed up.
Really? So I guess that people who claim that clouds are the unknown factor will now know what sort of a factor it is.
http://models.weatherbell.com/climate/ncep_cfsr_globe_t2m_2weeks_anom.png
Weather bell data showing very cold Antarctica.
Or perhaps it’s your prized Weatherbell which is wrong. Stop continually looking for excuses.
Weatherbell is merely passing through NOAA/NWS model data.
OK . I think I trust your data more then Wx. Bell’s.
Correct Weather bell could be wrong.
Measuring different temps (troposphere, surface), so should we expect them to match month to month? I think not.
Top 10 Septembers on the record:
1. 2017 (+0.54)
2. 2015 (+0.45) … EL NINO
3. 1998 (+0.44) … EL NINO
4. 2010 (+0.37) … EL NINO
5. 2009 (+0.27) … EL NINO
6. 2005 (+0.25) … EL NINO
7. 2015 (+0.25) … EL NINO
8. 1995 (+0.22) … EL NINO
9. 2012 (+0.22)
10. 2013 (+0.22)
2017 0.32 above 2nd highest non-El-Nino-affected September.
Top 10 first-9-months-of-the-year:
1. 1998 (+0.558) … EL NINO
2. 2016 (+0.554) … EL NINO
3. 2010 (+0.394) … EL NINO
4. 2017 (+0.342)
5. 2002 (+0.241) … EL NINO
6. 2015 (+0.217) … EL NINO
7. 2005 (+0.204) … EL NINO
8. 2007 (+0.199)
9. 2014 (+0.159)
10. 2003 (0.157)
Highest non-El-Nino-affected year by 0.143.
Average for last 5 years (Oct 2012 – Sep 2017): +0.278
Average for “last 5 years” at same point after 97-98 El Nino
(Oct 1994 – Sep 1999): +0.106
Yup … any “pause” is over.
I understand now why Roy put up the Monty Hall distraction a couple of days before this was released. I guess he’ll now be frantically at work on version 7.
We had El Nino conditions for much of the first part of the 2017. This is the reason for the bump in temperatures in August and September as satellite temps always lag by about 3 months. Since this is equatorial it tends to affect both hemispheres equally.
That has now ended. October should see a drop. If La Nina conditions take hold (haven’t yet) then look for another change 3 months later.
We have NOT had El Nino conditions since May 2016. You don’t get to make up the facts.
Des, do hurricanes raise troposphere temperatures?
According to Dr Spencer’s answer to that question earlier in this thread … “I doubt it”.
It’s funny how American’s measure the number of GLOBAL tropical storms by counting the number that actually make landfall in their own country. Kind of like the “World” Series.
Maybe they measure landfalls because they were not as smart as the Des people who had satellites back in 1920 to detect hurricanes over the ocean.
Paul – In case you haven’t realised – we are discussing the SATELLITE period.
We did not have a La Nina in 2016, see the BOM reports which confirm that there was not a La Nina in 2016..
We are not currently in La Nina conditions. Presently less than 50% of models predict La Nina for early 2018.
If we get a La Nina in early 2018, because of lag, it will not be picked up by the satellite until around May or June 2018.
The satellite is far less sensitive to La Nina than it is to El Nino. This may be because of convection. With warm El Nino conditions, convection carries the heat up to the height at which the satellite measures the temperature. In la Nina, with cold conditions, obviously there is less convection to height, and hence an attenuated response is seen in the satellite measurements.
there is no point in predicting the future. all predictions have been wrong to date. let us wait and see what develops for the rest of this year, and early next.
BOM is NOT the only source. There was a weak La Nina from August to December. http://ggweather.com/enso/oni.htm
But since you are citing BOM, their most recent outlook:
“Five of the eight models suggest SSTs will cool to La Nia thresholds by December 2017, but only four maintain these values for long enough to be classified as a La Nia event.”
That is not “less than 50% of models”.
I have done a comparison between UAH anomaly and ONI. Except for the 97-98 and 15-16 “very strong” El Ninos, the response of UAA anomalies to El Ninos and La Ninas is pretty much the same. So you have just made that up. The only difference seems to be the there is little correlation between the value of minimum ONI during a La Nina and the maximum drop in anomalies during the La Nina. Except for two VERY weak La Ninas, the temperature drop has been between 0.15 and 0.45, with the value seemingly unrelated to the minimum ONI.
I didn’t say we had them since May 2016. Do you always make stuff up? We actually had them starting in April 2017 and going through mid July.
http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/enso/monitoring/nino3_4.png
Add in the 3 month lag and they started to affect GAST around July going through mid October.
Obviously, you really aren’t interested in understanding climate.
If I say “We have NOT had El Nino conditions SINCE May 2016”, how on earth is that shifting your claim from 2017 to 2016?? Do you not know the difference between “IN 2016” and “SINCE 2016” ?? Do you always make stuff up?
You seem to think that a short spurt in equatorial pacific temperatures qualifies as an El Nino. It did not meet the conditions for an El Nino. If you were to count it as one, it would be the weakest El Nino ever. Find me another WEAK El Nino where the anomaly went close to this value … nup – where it EXCEEDS this value, to account for the fact that this wasn’t an El Nino.
DES, when you say we haven’t had El Nino conditions that means not one single month would have a Nino 3.4 anomaly at .5 or above. That has not been the case. As I pointed out the period from April through mid July 2017 had that exact situation.
Don’t you know the difference between “conditions” and “events”? It certainly appears that way. You really should educate yourself.
You don’t need official El Nino or La Nina “events” to affect the global temperature. It won’t be anything like a full ENSO “event”, but it will affect monthly anomalies over a short term period just as I pointed out.
I’ve asked you to find another period in the record with similar ENSO conditions that has led to a UAH anomaly anywhere near this high. I wonder why you chose to ignore that request?
DES, you ask for something that does not exist. Nowhere in the data do we have an aborted summer period of El Nino conditions. I do get a kick out of people who appear to have no clue how to look at the data.
As I mentioned our current understanding of ENSO is poor. The fact we could have NOAA predicting a full El Nino as the El Nino conditions materialized and then a few months later predicting La Nina should tell you something. This has not happened before in the data we have. Of course, that also means it has not happened during the +AMO since we don’t have much data from the last one.
There is nothing difficult to understand in what I stated. It is a very simple description of what has been happening over the summer months. It seems those who “believe” in AGW simply cannot look at data logically.
ONI for:
March 1993: +0.5
April 1993: +0.7
May 1993: +0.7
June 1993: +0.6
But no El Nino. It was one of your “aborted summers of El Nino conditions”. How did the UAH anomalies pan out for the rest of that year?
Des, I guess you never heard of Pinatubo. Can’t directly compare anything for the 2 years after its eruption. I thought anyone commenting on climate would be aware of this fact.
However, you can look at the relative change. The anomaly in March 1993 was -.43 which jumped up to -.06 in July. That’s a rise of .37. The rise we just saw was from .21 to .54 or .33. Looks like the effect was almost identical.
Was that your point?
1980 ONI
March 0.3
April 0.4
May 0.5
June 0.5
July 0.3
Another “aborted summer of El Nino conditions”.
Des is making a habit of demonstrating his lack of knowledge. 1979-1980 was an El Nino year and all you are doing is seeing the taper off the El Nino.
Anyone with any concept of ENSO should have known this as well.
EXACTLY. We have had COUNTLESS El Nino years, countless months DURING El Ninos, countless months in the lag period AFTER El Ninos, and SOMEHOW you believe that a “not quite El Nino” trumps all of these TRUE months.
Edit: True EL NINOS
2017 2 26.67 26.66 0.01
2017 3 27.31 27.21 0.11
2017 4 28.03 27.73 0.29
2017 5 28.29 27.85 0.44
2017 6 28.04 27.65 0.39
2017 7 27.53 27.26 0.27
2017 8 26.77 26.91 -0.14
http://origin.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/ensostuff/detrend.nino34.ascii.txt
From that data:
1982 9 … ONI +1.64 …. UAH -0.30
1982 10 … ONI +2.16 … UAH -0.39
1982 11 … ONI +2.09 … UAH -0.27
1982 12 … ONI +2.28 … UAH -0.16
1983 1 … ONI +2.32 … UAH +0.01
1983 2 … ONI +1.94 … UAH -0.16
1983 3 … ONI +1.49 … UAH +0.15
1983 4 … ONI +1.19 … UAH +0.08
1983 5 … ONI +1.18 … UAH +0.09
1983 6 … ONI +0.82 … UAH -0.18
Oceanographers consider an ENSO season to be July to June. July16-June17 was a weak La Nina, mostly occurring in the latter half of 2016. Presently ENSO is neutral.
If you group temperatures from July-to-June, 2016-2017 was the warmest La Nina on record, according to UAH LT data. The 2015-2016 ENSO season was the warmest El Nino on record, and 2014-2015 was the warmest ENSO-neutral season.
These records are the same for NOAA surface data.
So we’re seeing warmest years no matter what the ENSO state is.
PS: This is judging the ENSO state via the ONI:
http://origin.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/ensostuff/ONI_v5.php
The new version of the ONI data is interesting. Based on this, they should be coming up with a new category for the last El Nino … VERY VERY Strong.
In reality, the definition of ENSO states is a very poor metric. It appears it was created with only a minimal knowledge of the states of the Pacific ocean. This was made more than obvious by the latest El Nino and La Nina.
The 2016-17 La Nina was a particular joke as the Nino 1-2 region was extremely warm. The anomaly for Feb and Mar 2017, normally the peak of a real La Nina, averaged +1.75. Yes that is a plus sign.
It is clear the government weather agencies need to go back to the drawing board if they want their ENSO designations to have any meaning.
People who think their comments are meaningful when referring to this kind of obvious nonsense get caught looking a little foolish.
The La Nina did NOT extend into 2017. It lasted from August to December 2016. So you anomalies for Feb/Mar 2017 are irrelevant.
Des, I just gave those months as an example compared to what would normally be seen during a standard La Nina. In fact, the Nino 1-2 area was never positive during the entire so-called La Nina.
Keep in mind it is this area’s warmth or coolness that led to the recognition that something was happening in the Pacific. The choice of Nino 3.4 for now declaring an ENSO event is based on a minimal set of data. So, no it is not at all irrelevant. It is indicative of our lack of knowledge into ENSO. A smart person would realize this lack of knowledge extends into all aspects of climate.
No – it is a temperature GRADIENT across the Pacific (or lack of one) that determines the nature of an ENSO event, NOT the temperature itself.
Sorry Des, it is not the gradient that is measured determine El Nino. It is temperature pure and simple. You really need to quit making a fool of yourself.
Then you rally have NO idea how El Nino works. I bet you think that the Pacific actually warms up in the leadup to an El Nino, instead of simply shifting the existing heat around.
yes, Des, it’s all part of my elaborate conspiracy. Thanks for such valuable insight into my motives.
Dr. Roy, you have a lot of patience….
Talking of conspiracies … how long do you think it will be before Deniers Inc. starts claiming you have shacked up with NOAA?
Lowlife slimeball. You clowns should be put on trial for wasting billions and billions of dollars on a non-problem that could be used to feed the starving, or cure disease. How do you sleep at night, lowlife?
It is being used to PREVENT starving. How do you sleep at night knowing you are trying to undo that, lowlife?
We’ve been having record grain harvests, Despicable.
“WE”? … who does “we” refer to? Are you referring to Africa?
Try the USDA [email protected]$$.
And the other 98.1% of the earth’s land area?
@Des: The record grain harvest is worldwide:
http://www.world-grain.com/articles/news_home/Features/2016/11/Another_record-breaking_harves.aspx?ID=%7BF66FAB2B-AE1E-40B6-95F7-A7F92CD9B379%7D&cck=1
And, for accuracy, the US grain harvest is 7.6% of world total which puts it in 5th place behind the EU, China, India, and Russia. Russia’s grain production is on par with the US. If the EU total was broken into its constituent countries, the US numbers look even better.
Despicable,
The USDA presents GLOBAL figures, Einstein.
Or because Monty Hall just died was his motive?
Where you lose me, Dr Spencer is a global warming proponent yet you treat it like he isn’t. If you’ll eat your own because he’s not a fanatic, can I trust you for any other information?
Is it the new reality that lukewarmers are global warming proponents?
If so, I would say a few months of Trump can cause quite a change.
Used to be that it was the modelers who were over estimating future global warming effects who were the proponents.
Now, you didn’t need to do future “projection” but could use
them to claim polar bears are going to die, or arctic polar sea ice was going disappear very soon.
And things like more than meter rise in sea level and the children will never see snow.
For me, when someone says yes I believe there is some truth in something, it makes them a proponent. He’s been saying the models are half right for a while now.
Half wrong is wrong.
We recovering from the Little ice age.
And we also recovering from the last glacial period.
We are in icebox climate and there no evidence we are
escaping from it.
Our oceans are cold- which is a characteristic or definition of global icebox climate.
If the average temperature of the ocean was 10 C rather
than 3 C, we wouldn’t be in an icebox climate.
And global temperature would be about 20 C.
And be closer to a hothouse global climate which about 25 C.
Thank you very much!
A minor typo: 2016 was 0.45, not 2015.
Oh no may it be the warmest September on record! Well I’ll be!? Wait wasn’t the medival warming period way warmer then now? And also actual temps lag solar driven activity and upward El Nio events. Dumb alarmist sheeple!
Why do you continue to try to type the Spanish ‘n’ when you know it gets blocked every time? It doesn’t give a very a very good impression of your cognitive ability.
ñ should do it.
It’s becoming more and more difficult to deny AGW Dr. Roy.
When the going get’s tough, deniers can display enormous creativity in their responses. Such as someone above claiming we have just pulled out of El Nino.
When the going gets tougher stupid dumb retarded alarmists like the one above attack and ridicule people who know the facts because they know that they are in for a huge surprise eventually and want to keep the Willy wanker and the global warming factory up and running because there are true people like me who are spoiling the secret formula and that is the only way they can cover it up.
The alarmist fear mongering lemmings like Des*picable can’t help but resort to the “denier” term with its Holocaust connotations. You are a true lowlife.
The holocaust has never entered my mind while talking to deniers. The concept of a denier predates the holocaust – it goes back to Freud. The denier lemmings like Septic Gone Wild can’t help but make false word associations in order to score brownie points. You are a true lowlife.
Total BS. The connotation was clear from the beginning you pile of horse manure:
“We have Holocaust deniers; we have climate change deniers. And to be honest, I dont think theres a great deal of difference.
[Bill McGuire, University College London (2006)]
Climate deniers are less immoral than Holocaust deniers, although they are undoubtedly more dangerous.
[Clive Hamilton, Charles Sturt University (2009)]
“”Let’s just say that global warming deniers are now on a par with Holocaust deniers.”
[Ellen Goodman, Boston Globe (2007)]
“The deniers of climate change are cut from the same cloth as Holocaust deniers. Theyve never been to the death camps, Auschwitz and Birkenau, so what they havent seen does not exist.”
[Charles Larson, American University (2013)]
Welcome to the world of slimeballs, DESpcicable. These were just a few samples.
Never heard of any of those people. Quoting them doesn’t make your claim true. Please tell me precisely what part of my comments suggests I meant that – try to do that without any more guesswork.
Des believes he came up with “Deniers” on his own. He doesn’t recognize the indoctrination he’s received.
If I were you, SkepticGoneSomehow, I would take some time in reviewing all WUWT threads of the last five years, and check for quite the opposite evidence!
I remember a disgusting person with nickname ‘Gloateus Maximus’ speaking about the ‘Potsdam GESTAPO’, other people I don’t remember talking about Nazi-like warmistas, etc etc.
Here is a very nice example of how some Americans write about people they have no idea about:
https://wattsupwiththat.com/2017/08/25/agus-climate-change-believe-it-or-else-prize/
http://columbia-phd.org/RealClimatologists/Articles/2017/08/14/Heil_KlimaFuehrer_Rahmstorf/index.html
My point is: the best is to keep equidistant from all this incredible sh.it!
I don’t “deny AGW”. Please pay attention, Dr. Mark.
Hi Dr. Spencer. I understood that – neither do I; however, and I expect that I’ve missed this somewhere in these parts; if you would please, what is your view on how just how much of [current/recent] GW is AGW? And, do you agree that prior to the 1950’s – 1970’s period, there would not have been any potential for any meaningful human footprint on GW, AGHG’s were just beginning to really rise significantly?
There isn’t any measurable amount warming due to “AGW” in terms global temperature.
Urban heat islands are “AGW”- human caused warming effects which is easily measurable and affects large regions [if large regions are hundreds of square km- but not large if referring to 510 million square km of the Earth].
Earth is mostly covered by ocean area, humans have had no measurable effect upon the temperature of the oceans.
Imagine if someone could determine how to correctly measure the amount of the effect of AGW, they would be “well rewarded”- fame, fortune, and whatever.
It would be a very significant accomplishment- but alas, despite the posers, no one has actually done it.
The same goes for anyone finding evidence of UFOs. Or bigfoot. Though there are quite a few people “making a living” by claiming to have such evidence.
Urban heat islands are corrected for in the surface record. It’s funny how deniers always skip over that part.
–Des says:
October 4, 2017 at 8:01 PM
Urban heat islands are corrected for in the surface record. Its funny how deniers always skip over that part.–
Global warming is indicated by rising sea level and retreat of glaciers.
Urban heat island effect is unrelated to these “thermometers”.
And the surface record seems good enough as far as I am concerned- because it seems to accurately depicts warming caused the oceans.
But it is getting rather difficult to claim low sensitivity, as well.
Earth’s temperature has low senstte to CO2.
(That wasn’t so difficult to claim.)
*sensitivity
Of course – deniers have no difficulty in making claims which run counter to the evidence, as you’ve just so proudly proven.
I’m glad you agree with me, Des.
Of course we might disagree on what you call “evidence”. Some Warmists believe DWIR is “evidence”, for example. That’s like believing Thor causes lightning by throwing lightning bolts!
That’s okay, everyone gets to believe what they want.
g*e*r*a*n says, October 2, 2017 at 3:37 PM:
Or, as both Dr. Mark H. Shapiro, Rob Honeycutt and Des here all stereotypically exemplify, warmists tend to believe that temperature rise alone is “evidence” of its CAUSE …
“Everyone gets to believe what they want.”
Yes, you can “BELIEVE what you want”. I hope you don’t mind if I prefer KNOWLEDGE over belief.
Just keep believing, Des.
Kristian
Would you please point out precisely where I have claimed that “temperature rise alone is evidence of its cause”.
Des says, October 2, 2017 at 5:08 PM:
Des
Would you please point out precisely where I wrote that you CLAIM that “temperature rise alone is evidence of its cause”.
Des says, October 2, 2017 at 4:00 PM:
So how exactly do you KNOW that we humans are responsible for GW, des? Based on what observations?
It will be difficult for Kristian to do that, seeing as he made it up wholesale.
Kristian, you said:
as both Dr. Mark H. Shapiro, Rob Honeycutt and Des here all stereotypically exemplify, warmists tend to believe that temperature rise alone is evidence of its CAUSE
I too think that that is complete fabrication, and am curious to see if you can produce a quote that verifies this statement.
What I expect is that you’ll get tricksy.
Yes, barry, sorry I forgot to include you.
Har har. I thought you’d try something cleverer.
Your best shot is with Shapiro’s quote.
–Kristian says:
October 2, 2017 at 3:56 PM
g*e*r*a*n says, October 2, 2017 at 3:37 PM:
Of course we might disagree on what you call evidence. Some Warmists believe DWIR is evidence ()
Or, as both Dr. Mark H. Shapiro, Rob Honeycutt and Des here all stereotypically exemplify, warmists tend to believe that temperature rise alone is evidence of its CAUSE —
Well I believe the higher average temperature of the tropics and the higher average temperature of the entire ocean is
evidence of its CAUSE.
Kristian October 3, 2017 at 3:32 AM:
“Would you please point out precisely where I wrote that you CLAIM that temperature rise alone is evidence of its cause.
Kristian October 2, 2017 at 3:56 PM:
“… as both Dr. Mark H. Shapiro, Rob Honeycutt and Des here all stereotypically exemplify, warmists tend to believe that temperature rise alone is evidence of its CAUSE …”
Des says, October 3, 2017 at 10:39 PM:
So for the record, you hereby admit that I didn’t accuse you of what you claimed I accused you of. Good boy.
FOR THE RECORD, we have it in writing that you accused me of “believing that temperature rise alone is evidence of its CAUSE”.
Des says, October 3, 2017 at 11:37 PM:
Yes. “Believing” something isn’t the same as “CLAIMING” something out loud or in writing, is it, Des?
Note that I did not say that warmists tend to believe that temperature rise is necessarily the ONLY evidence of its cause. I said that warmists tend to believe that it’s ENOUGH to just point to a temperature rise in order to draw conclusions about its cause. And by “a temperature rise”, I naturally don’t mean monthly noise or ENSO-induced peaks. I mean of course “a rising temperature trend over time”.
You seem to believe that word gymnastics gets you out of your claim.
Des says, October 4, 2017 at 8:03 PM:
I don’t need to “get myself out of” my claim at all. You obviously DO believe that pointing to a rising trend in temperature is enough to confirm your belief in CO2 warming as CO2_atm increases. Same with barry. Same with Dr. Mark H. Shapiro. Same with Rob Honeycutt.
I have, however, never stated that this is something you have OPENLY CLAIMED. Of course you haven’t. That’s what an inherent belief is all about. You show, you don’t tell.
Which means your belief that we have this belief *IS* only a belief – nothing more.
Des says, October 5, 2017 at 6:24 PM:
Not at all. It’s based on tons and tons of evidence. It’s all around you.
You all DO believe this. It’s the most obvious thing. Anyone able to read would understand why it has to be so. It’s a settled fact, and so no point discussing, really. All we need to discuss from here on is “What do we do about it…?”
Or are you a denier, Des? Do you deny the evidence?
@Kristian
Lol thanks i gota good laugh outof that…
I would add tbat 97% of skeptics agree.. It is settled so no more evidence is needed 😜
I see you’re talking in riddles again.
Let’s add comprehension difficulties to your list of issues.
Rob Honeycutt, that was not directed at you. I posted it in the wrong level of the thread.
Don’t worry doctor spencer. The longer the better because eventually this man made global warming bullshit will be a thing of the past and bite everyone in the ass because of not looking at the real science behind climate change. Hang in there! We are slowly but surely winning the fight!
We are slowly but surely going in the opposite direction to that required for deniers to “win the fight”.
Roy…”I dont deny AGW. Please pay attention, Dr. Mark”.
You’re a better man than me. You have far more tolerance for the possibility.
In the strictest sense, I am not a denier of AGW either. I think there is a possibility of about 0.01C over decades.
I think Lindzen pegged it at around 0.4C for a doubling of CO2.
Love to know how you get “0.01C over decades” from “0.4C for a doubling of CO2”.
Whenever you’re ready Gordon.
It’s been clear for a while if you’re not a warming fanatic/ alarmist, you’re a nothing to the warming trolls/crowd. Makes me think the real disease the world should take action against is lumping crazies in with rational people. Dr Spencer has the most rational and truthful position of any climate proponent I’ve heard of yet. Maybe he shouldn’t try to balance out the fanatics and rather stick more closely to the facts and possibilities, but I’m glad someone in a prominent, non-authoritative position will at least attempt to be objective.
Dr. Mark H. Shapiro says, October 2, 2017 at 8:41 AM:
Let me fix that for you: It’s becoming more and more difficult to deny GW.
Where exactly in Spencer’s graph do you see the “A”?
You have it from the Master himself;
“I dont deny AGW. Please pay attention, Dr. Mark.”
And so should You my friend, Your kognitiv gifts and scientific skills would be far better served if You became a true sceptic.
Was about to point out the same. Since very few people deny GW, it is a non-issue.
shapiro…”Its becoming more and more difficult to deny AGW Dr. Roy”.
Only an idiot would interject with such an observation. Show me any scientific evidence of AGW.
Having ‘Dr.’ before your name does not absolve you of idiocy.
Since Dr Roy agrees with AGW, why don’t you ask HIM for the evidence?
We still hold out hope for Dr. Roy.
Does that mean he doesn’t have to supply evidence for his claims?
He does.
http://www.drroyspencer.com/2017/10/uah-global-temperature-update-for-september-2017-0-54-deg-c/#comment-266138
The question was to “show me any scientific evidence of AGW”. How exactly does Dr Spencer answer that in that post?
Anyway … of course he has supplied evidence in the past. So Gordon Robertson can look it up and be content that he has received an answer from someone he trusts.
No Des, your question was:
“Does that mean he doesnt have to supply evidence for his claims?”
(Glad to help.)
Gordon Robertson says:
“Only an idiot would interject with such an observation. Show me any scientific evidence of AGW.”
You mean you’ve been denying AGW this entire time and haven’t even taken a half-hour to read about its evidence??
Gordon??
Damned if you do, damned if you don’t. Tough life.
tru dat.
The data for the month of September is quite a surprise because the overall sea surface temperatures have been falling off, as well as a tendency toward La Nina, conditions.
Oceanic lag times have to be considered, and as long as the oceans keep cooling eventually so too will global temperatures.
I will be watching the global oceanic temperatures moving forward, currently +.269c and see how this translates to global temperatures, and to a lesser extent if La Nina develops
Satellite data is the best even when it goes against what one wanted.
I am positive going forward global temperatures will be dropping off.
Again this was a surprise.
Oh, with La Nina coming on, I’m pretty confident we are in for a large-ish drop. But a few months of anomalies don’t make a long-term trend. The important news remains the same: global temperatures have been rising at only about 50% the rate the models say they should be.
Dr. Spencer I think what is more important then La Nina per say is the overall oceanic temperatures on a global basis.
Exactly! Try spelling that out for the clueless dimwitted alarmists!
Oh, with La Nina coming on, Im pretty confident we are in for a large-ish drop
You were saying much the same mid-2016. Wouldn’t you be less confident when the first prediction of a la Nina fizzled out?
Barry, there was a weak La Nina in the second half of 2016, according to the ONI:
http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/ensostuff/ensoyears.shtml
It was the warmest La Nina on record, according to UAH LT v6.0 data.
I see the potential for a significant drop *if* we actually see the la Nina, a deepening AMO, and the predicted Bali volcanic eruption is large and extended. 2-3 months after Bali may make for interesting times.
CoRev: These would all be natural changes, indicating nothing whatsoever about manmade global warming.
DA, of cou. If they persisted long enough or drove temperatures deep enough to re-institute the “hiatus” they would also disprove the GCMs.
It’s too bad the obvious is lost on alarmists/true believers.
Roy W. Spencer, Ph. D. says: ‘The important news remains the same: global temperatures have been rising at only about 50% the rate the models say they should be.’
OK, if we accept that the model predictions were on the high side, can I ask whether the models included other gases besides CO2? So if one were also to accept the methane clathrate theory then atmospheric methane could continue to increase markedly. And so there’s a mechanism by which GW could, very plausibly, accelerate from its present luke-warming rate? Methane readings do seem to be progressively increasing eg:
https://www.esrl.noaa.gov/gmd/ccgg/trends_ch4/
johnd says:
October 3, 2017 at 10:13 AM
Roy W. Spencer, Ph. D. says: The important news remains the same: global temperatures have been rising at only about 50% the rate the models say they should be.
That’s only according to un-peer reviewed, unpublished claims. Blog posts are not science. Real science appears in the peer reviewed published literature, in journals that don’t cause the editor-in-chief to resign when the paper is published.
You know this very well, Roy.
Lol. None of this is a surprise. As I said no one of my previous comments and so did dr spencer monthly temp anomolies mean nothing in terms of climate change. Yes, we may continue to experience periods of rapid fluctuations in monthly temps throughout the year but the long term 13 month average trend is expected to plunge downward rapidly over the next few years as we heads towards the bottom of this next solar cycle in the early to mid 2020s. By then global warming alarmism is going to melt like crazy and create a sea level rise of awareness and regret that will drown all in a flood of sorrow, pain, Missorry and will wash all those bastards away who lied to us about global warming. They will be one of the first to drown and choke and the waters of revenge and they know there death is drawing near and they only have very limited time to keep there man made global warming bullshit up and running.
Gee!
What a dummy spit!
Gee what a retarded dummy who spits venemous nonsense without bring up any supportive scientific claims whatsoever to support his or her argument. The least you can do is talk science but you choose to talk like a baby who gets his passifire stolen by his or her older brother.
What’s the matter dr nobody? Does the truth scare you? Are you to babyish to handle real science? Is your comprehension too low to comprehend what I’m saying? Do you really need to go back to kindergarten? Or did you just forget to take your meds today that dr poo poo pants prescribed for you?
Just out of interest, how old are you?
Dr No
Old enough to speak but not old enough to make sense. So I’d say the number in his name is probably it.
So real data is to be put aside due to someone’s claims of “expected” falls in the future. Yes there will be falls because this month’s absurdly high anomaly is 0.27 above the trend temperature. It MUST fall. And if we can go 0.27 above the trend, then we can also go 0.27 below, ie. ZERO. And a La Nina to that and we can go well below zero without a general cooling trend. Below zero anomalies WILL happen again, and it goes without saying that deniers will immediately claim that “this is the new trend”.
Step change and new pause probably.
That likely depends on the PDO.
ClimateChange4realz says:
“…but the long term 13 month average trend is expected to plunge downward rapidly over the next few years as we heads towards the bottom of this next solar cycle in the early to mid 2020s.”
Why didn’t this rapid downward plunge happen at the last solar cycle minimum, or the one before that?
Your joking right?
looking at this Image I on the contrary see plenty of times where these steep drops occur. In fact, it occurs everytime.
http://notrickszone.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/04/Modern-Grand-Maximum-Chen-2015.jpg
And this one…..
https://wattsupwiththat.files.wordpress.com/2016/06/image1.png
Oh no it’s going up! Global warming has returned from its summer vacation and he is not playing anymore games! This is very serious stuff folks! Wait a minute, didn’t al gore predict the artic ice should be gone a while back in 2007? Record ice growth for September! Hmmmmmmm… After all it is the long term yearly trend that matters and that is still showing a downward trend. Oh well, back to sleep sheeples!
I must admit did not expect +.54c for Sep.
No one did. Global monthly anomolies can vary so much month to month. It is the long term yearly trend from 2016 (the red line) that matters and that is going down because we ended solar maximum
I agree but now we have to hear all the AGW enthusiast for a little longer.
Despite this month I am confident that the trend is going to be down.
The oceanic temperatures have to be paid close attention to. +.271 c last report. As long as this trends down so will global temperatures.
ocean tid bits web-site gives 6 hourly updates on oceanic temperatures plus much more info.
I promise you they will go down and with it those damn alarmists and there stupid agenda. All you have to do is look at history if you want to know how climate change is going to change the world. Yes climate change is a big deal. Yes the climate is changing and the weather is getting weirder. Yes the sea level has risen slightly over the past 100 years as well as the temperature Yes climate change is going to kill a overwhelming majority of our population in the next 10-15 years and change the way the human species live and act as a whole. That is one of the reasons why it is called Climate change. It is something that will change the world and there is nothing we can do to make it worse or muffle it specifically over the shorterm. Perhaps we could eventually have released enough ghgs into the atmosphere to then and only if then we can change the climate significantly. I’m talking thousands if not millions of years of hard core fossil fuel nonstop worse casecnario. But it is the short term that they want to mislead you and worry about and that my friend is where history comes in. Look at what happens in the 16 and 1800s with climate change. The sun has caused it and is doing the same thing is always does every 200 years or so it is not admitting as much solar radiance to warm the earth for at least the next 200 years. Start with John l casey. He is a great source of information if you want to know what’s really happening with the climate. Good luck my friend and prepare well. 🙂
I said it last month:
“Salvatore,
prepare to meet your moment of truth.
The next few months will decide you and your theorys fate, once and for all.
No ifs and buts agreed?”
and you agreed.
Probably the best predictor is to just go with the opposite of whatever Salvatore predicts. Time has told.
Sniff sniff….. hmmmmm what’s that awefull smell I’m smelling. It smells look dr nobody and Davie Appleseed arguing over something without even bringing up any arguements to support there babyish foolish claims. I for one am not a baby. Im beginning to think some of the baby’s who chat on this blog are beginning to talk More nonsense and less science. I wonder why that is?
So the oceanic temperature is +0.27. That is precisely the UAH trend value. So exactly as expected. It hasn’t “trended down”.
Gee – I though it went down BECAUSE EL NINO ENDED.
I do know for a fact the one thing did go down. human intelligence
Yes, it went down. To a higher level than it was before the distorting El Nino influence.
These alarmist sissies wet their pants if the wind blows. Truly a mental disease. All because of scientific ignorance. So sad.
So no argument then? Only bluster.
Sometimes it’s hard to tell the mantra-kockeys from talking to an online AI.
I suggest Costco and a large size of Depends for all your pant-wetting.
Online AIs typically say things that are unrelated to the input, especially if the input is more complex than a simple sentence using simple words.
Just above is a fine example.
Hello Des
I find your analysis here very interesting!
http://www.drroyspencer.com/2017/10/uah-global-temperature-update-for-september-2017-0-54-deg-c/#comment-266116
I do not know if you are aware of my monthly column at WUWT. However I would be happy to have your permission to post most of that in my next article, with proper attribution of course.
I would title it:
Can You Explain UAH6? (Now Includes August and September Data)
Perhaps, if you let me know what your suggested explanations for the high August & September anomalies are. I don’t want to be associated with some kind of nonsense rationalisation that is commonly seen on your site.
Be aware of a typo that needs fixing. In the first list, number 2 should say 2016, not 2016.
Also, when I wrote “EL NINO”, it was not necessarily an El Nino month. There is a 4-6 month lag between ENSO events and their associated anomalies. The months marked “EL NINO” are either an El Nino month or they fall within that lag period.
Did breeders in Dakotas secure cattle before winter?
http://pics.tinypic.pl/i/00936/c3b9vcwv2kxp.png
Is there high pressure in Asia?
http://pics.tinypic.pl/i/00936/h4bpd2xm3o4q.png
Kim Jong-Un seems to be creating some pressure.
Very surprising to me. I expected September’s anomaly to be somewhere between the July and August.
In response to the statement by Des: “Its funny how Americans measure the number of GLOBAL tropical storms by counting the number that actually make landfall in their own country. Kind of like the World Series.” I have seen a chart showing no upward trend in global ACE (Ryan Maue circulated it). Are you contending that there is such a trend? If so there is there a chart or other data showing this? I am not challenging you — I’m a non-expert. But if you are saying the chart that I have seen is wrong (i.e., that there is a long term upward trend in global hurricane/cyclone activity), I would be interested in checking that out. Thanks.
I find the trend in annual global ACE of +18 +/- 34 per decade, since 1970. So positive, but not statistically significant. (Well, it is stat sign at the 70% level.)
But ACE is a lousy metric, because it doesn’t consider the size of storms. I wrote about some better metrics here:
We Need a Better Way to Measure Hurricanes, Slate, Sept 21, 2017.
http://www.slate.com/articles/health_and_science/science/2017/09/a_better_metric_for_measuring_hurricanes.html
metric shopping
Do you know that “Accumulated Cyclone Energy” doesn’t even have units of energy?
That a car being driven at 120 mph for six hours has exactly the same ACE as a 500-mile wide hurricane with max winds of 120 mph spinning for six hours?
Does either of these make rational sense to you? It certainly doesn’t to a lot of hurricane scientists.
It makes sense from the point of view of instantaneous ferocity. But, more importantly, it is something for which we do not have to make up statistics due to the paucity of historical data for other measures.
The ACE index is hardly perfect – the measurement system has changed over the decades for a start.
At least there was a measurement system. Better than making up measurements out of whole cloth.
You believe “making things up out of whole cloth” is the alternative to ACE. It looks almost as if you know what you are talking about.
The data just aren’t there, Barry. To the extent that they are, the methodologies and technology have changed so much that it would be about as bad as splicing tree ring proxies to the modern instrumental record. With such tiny differential signals, the assumptions used in patching it all together would be the driving force in any results.
Which alternative methodologies are you thinking of?
Bart says:
“It makes sense from the point of view of instantaneous ferocity.”
Instantaneous ferocity isn’t what caused widespread damages.
ACE should at least be an energy, if it’s called an energy. It isn’t.
Bart says:
“At least there was a measurement system. Better than making up measurements out of whole cloth.”
And you think ACE wasn’t made up out of whole cloth?
Later metrics have more thought (and more data) in them.
Thank you, and I read your interesting Slate article
Unlike a few commenters to that article, it seems intuitive to me that classifying storms is a worthwhile endeavor. Among other things, doing so allows people to at least roughly compare storms over time, and to better look for and discuss trends. If we step outside the world of ACE, is there an alternate classification system which shows (statistically significant) storm intensification over an appreciable period of time?
The problem is, we cannot go back in time to collect data for other measures for the historical record. That opens the door to the usual “adjustment” scenario in which Climate Change manifests within the gaps of our knowledge, and the probity of the data preparers.
Yes and slide-rules rule, 4evr. Computers suck.
Computers do suck, in a lot of ways. For one thing, they can only tell you the implications of your assumptions. For another, easy computing power makes people lazy. They don’t give as much thought to the specific problem at hand, and rely on the computer to solve it for them through trial and error, often using canned routines that are based on assumptions that do not hold in the given instance.
Computers do not think. They only calculate. They are only tools. I’ve been fortunate that I never had to use a slide rule, or even a punch card. But, I do recognize the weaknesses of computers, and I do not abdicate my responsibility for independent thought to them.
What this has to do with the thread, I have no idea, but decided to share my thoughts anyway.
Slide-rules. Well it was picking on the idea that we shouldnt change how we measure things…
Similar to atguments made here, that we shouldnt or cannot change how we power things. I would disagree with that one just as much.
The problem is, when you change how the measurement is done, you change the outcome. It’s OK when the thing you are trying to measure has high SNR, but the signals being looked for here are relatively tiny.
I’m all for changing how we power things, if it makes sense. But, solar and wind power don’t. They’re inefficient, and horrific for the environment.
I like electric cars. I just don’t kid myself that they run on pixie dust and wishes. If anything, they require more energy in the end, due to the need to produce and transport power from remote location, and lug around a ton of batteries everywhere you go. And, the manufacture and disposal of those batteries also is not environmentally friendly.
‘Theyre inefficient’
Compared to what? Tell that to states like Texas and North Dakota, re wind. Your ideas are obsolete.
‘and horrific for the environment’ Not remotely, compared to coal.
Nonsense. Coal is quite clean these days. Heavy metals for windmills and caustic reagents for solar panels, not so much.
Solar and wind barely produce more power than used in their manufacture. And, they despoil acres upon acres upon acres of natural habitat, because the power they produce per unit is such a pittance.
How is coal mined, exactly? What happens to the tailings? Where do they end up? What happens to the ash and sludge from power plants? Didnt govt just relax rules on what coal miners can dump in rivers?
‘they despoil acres upon acres upon acres of natural habitat, because the power they produce per unit is such a pittance’
Really? So why do ranchers quite happily rent out there pastures for wind turbines (and continue to ranch). This sounds very much like one of those ‘I know you are but what am I’ retorts on the playground. Completely dumb.
”Solar and wind barely produce more power than used in their manufacture.”
Very false, by orders of magnitude.
Why do you feel it helps your credibility to continually just make sh*t up?
Check out open pit mining Bart:
https://tinyurl.com/y8kksjsk
Yes, nasty stuff, mines:
https://tinyurl.com/j9s5ytc
https://tinyurl.com/yarkc4sa
https://tinyurl.com/l9jamch
https://tinyurl.com/n3frxms
Bart, so you’re giving up your headphones, speakers, disk drives, smart phones, cordless drills, etc that use most of these magnets?
David: I am looking for such time series, but having a hard time finding them. If they exist, they are buried somewhere in published papers. Unfortunately these numbers are not yet widely available.
I was not making any such claim. Why didn’t you include the CONTEXT of that quote? Someone had suggested that September was warm SOLELY due to hurricanes. I was pointing out that he is claiming that apparently the global anomaly responds in this way ONLY due to hurricanes that make landfall in the USA and no others.
One odd ball month in temperatures does not make the case for AGW.
To people like you and me who think logically it doesn’t but apparently for the dimwitted puny minded alarmists trolling dr Roy spencer it does. While the temp anomaly is up they are scrambling to try to deviceve people and squeeze as much money out of their wallets as they can since it is only temporary for the time being and then they’ll say I’m glad I did what I could do make money and profit off of these innocent minded people while I had the chance. When they see an opportunity they strike just like al gore and the melting of the Arctic sea ice or the 1970s global cooling scare or the dumb scientist that says snow would eventually be a thing of the past. People give them money and they regret it and then they apologize and then they make up more excuses and so on. I call it the pseudoscience cycle for profit demanded by libtards and left wing conspiracy theorists. which consists of first pushing junk science down innocent peoples throats when they still have the chance while the libtards make there profit then the people cry and the libtards throw a party. Evil always wins when it comes to today’s era in pushing junk climate science. Sadly.
Nobody is claiming that it does. But it certainly puts a damper on your claims of cooling. Given that September is 0.27 above the trend temperature, I trust that if we get another month of 0.0, you won’t be claiming that it makes a case for cooling.
“Given that September is 0.27 above the trend temperature”
So what? Explain to me how this is such a big deal. Also explain to me that if there is global warming the earth should be warming and we shouldn’t be setting 100 year+ record cold temperature records like the western US did last year and other parts of the world. Nevada ski resorts should haven’t been open all summer in fact it should have been ski free all year. Global warming. More co2. Warmer world. Co2 increasing claimed as a primary driver of climate change but temperatures have been steady for 18 years how come? I thought more co2 was supposed to warm the earth continously just like all 72 of the broken iPCC models claimed. Why? Why are we still using cars? Why is this not top world news? Why is there even existing news and articles about global cooling and a coming ice age if we are trying to prove global warming is real? There is just no way around it. You could try all you want weasel your way through this one pal but the facts are on the table and the truth ain’t gonna change itself but perhaps let the people change it.
Oooooooh. So it’s A few tiny months of warming. A drop in a bottle. I will be back a few years from now and maybe then we can have a more mature debate.
The only time I made a claim for cooling was when we had those two steepest drops on record in May and June of 2016 when the alarmists were in la La Nia land and that broke records of one of the steepest drops in the sattelite era. I don’t see any records of the biggest increase in global temperatures in two months on dr Spencer’s website which shreds your garbage global warming theory to even more peices.
4realz, a little over caffeinated …
You seem to enjoy talking to yourself. Who am I to interrupt.
So where is your explanation Des?
Why would I bother replying to a nonsense claim that global warming should mean no snow?
One odd ball month in temperatures does not make the case for AGW.
Of course. But you believe that cooling over 2 months heralds a change.
If only everyone accepted that month-to-month variation is not climate. But you have ‘skeptics’ aplenty crowing about monthly, and even weekly lows, just as you see ‘alarmists’ making hay out of short-term phenomena.
Salvatore Del Prete says:
“One odd ball month in temperatures does not make the case for AGW.”
That’s why no one makes that.
It is interesting that the troposphere develops so different from surface series the last couple of months, and I think it must be related to the tiny spike in the multivariate enso index – an effect that has already vanished in surface measurements.
https://www.esrl.noaa.gov/psd/enso/mei/
Why do you think it must be related to that?
probably to do with the red thingies and blue thingies
Nice scientific answer I see.
Notice how many more comments there are on the February 2016 blog when we had a peak in global warming due to the the Godzilla El Nio and a secondary peak in solar cycle 25. This huge El Nio was there big chance they had to make lots of money by lying to people but sadly that is coming to a close and the earth will continue to cool in the coming years. I wouldn’t be surprised to see no alarmists on the comment sections of these monthly temp anomaly blogs 3 years time because they’ll be too busy crying there puny little eyes out in there bed pillows about how wrong, selfish and greedy they were. Sadly this isn’t something that will happen over night and for now until the long term trend is noticable and undeniable in the next few years the warmies will continue to infest dr Spencers site like a virous taking over the human body
Feb 2016: 318 comments
August 2016 (last month): 2331 comments
What was that you were saying? It’s funny how you try to make a comparison of September comments when this post has been up only a few hours. Kind of like the idiocy of trying to compare ENSO neutral temperatures to the those from the height of the 97-98 El Nino.
Bullshit! It’s right here fuckwit:
http://www.drroyspencer.com/2016/02/uah-v6-global-temperature-update-for-january-2016-0-54-deg-c/
Buy some glasses before making dumb ignorant comments you moron
It seems you don’t know the difference between January and February. Try to get it right next time. Perhaps you would like to suggest why the number of comments fell by 90% from January to the peak temperature month of February. Does that give a positive or negative correlation between temperature and comments?
BTW – I found it interesting that Dr Spencer allows the F word to be used on his blog by only one side of the debate. Or … perhaps my perception has been skewed because only one side of the debate actually resorts to using that word. Apparently it qualifies as a proxy “argument”.
Whatever man. Believe whatever you want. But just remember that global warming is real and is caused by humans as you claim even though there is a shit ton of real evidence that disputes it coming from all these well educated scientists. The real question you have to ask yourself is How did they come to this conclusion? Why even allow this on the internet? Why are so many news articles about long term 100+ record cold being broken across the globe not in the mainstream news. why did These so called educated scientist make these horribly wrong predictions? And if it is so real and terrible then maybe we should get off our lazy asses and start changing things IMMEDIATELY! Yes we have made some progress but we can do way better. Yet the government still allows these cars that produce co2 to go on. This shit should be banned and there should be a law if it was that big of a deal. And finally, why are the government out to kill and jail people who do not believe in man made climate change? It makes no sense therefore the politics don’t make sense therefore the science backing it up makes no sense.
If you want to change topics, start another thread. This one is settled.
Why not start a new thread if you can continue one desi boy? Now answer my questions. That is….. if you can. Lol
You don’t get it, do you. I am not here to prove something that has already been proven beyond reasonable doubt. Any attempt to do do would be a case of casting pearls before swine. No, I am here simply to laugh at all those people who claim a GLOBAL cooling trend despite the fact there is not a shred of evidence to back up their claim. If I happen to get sidetracked into talking about warming then count yourself blessed, but I don’t respond to DEMANDS for such a conversation.
CC4R got the dates wrong. The peak was in February, but the update was early March, as usual. The number of comments was below average.
Whatever the case, it would be impossible to interpret the numbers without reading and categorizing the posts. Who could bothered doing that? No, better to make claims no one is going to bother verifying, least of all you.
4realz, never mind the caffeine, consider cutting back on the meth…
Hmmmmh!
Ein Kommentar mit Weltklasseniveau, was realz?
Bullshit. It’s right here fuck nugget:
http://www.drroyspencer.com/2016/02/uah-v6-global-temperature-update-for-january-2016-0-54-deg-c/
Get some glasses and learn to read properly before making such foolish comments you moron
Where is the moderator for this site?
This gives denialists a bad name.
Only this ??
Go cry to mommy, Dr. No-nothing.
What a lovely person you are Mr Septic.
A single month does not a trend make.
Salvatore,
Global temps are up from last month, and September was the warmest month of this year. As you think the ocean sets the global temp, does that mean global sea surface temps were warm over September, and that the seas were last month warmer than at any other time during this year?
This time last year, people were blaming the warm readings on a monster el nino. September 2017 was even warmer than last, and no el nino at all.
the ocean tid bit site shows ocean cooling down from around +.38c a month ago to around +.27c currently ,was even lower a few days ago.
And how many times has this amount of cooling happened in the past?
Salvatore Del Prete wrote:
September 5, 2017 at 8:27 AM
“The over all trend for year 2017 is down and Sep. will not be as warm as Aug.”
http://www.drroyspencer.com/2017/09/uah-global-temperature-update-for-august-2017-0-41-deg-c/#comment-261192
Now that the UAH anomaly is high, let me point out how little I trust this data set. There is absolutely NO WAY September temperatures were 0.25 degrees above July. Similarly there was absolutely NO WAY March temperatures were 0.16 below February.
Everyone likes to point out (ie over-state) the Urban Heat Island effect as a reason that NOAA anomalies might run hot. Based on daily NOAA data, this month’s anomaly will be around the same as for the past two months. Would anyone care to suggest why NOAA data would run COLD?
Why is there NO WAY September would be that much higher than than July?
Because the surface data doesn’t indicate it.
Surface data? Your joking right?
Yeah – the data sat which DOESN’T take temperatures at different times of the day in different parts of the world, and pretends they have a valid algorithm for comparing those temperatures.
No one is saying sattelite temperature is perfect but the surface data is FAR worse:
https://www.john-daly.com/ges/surftmp/surftemp.htm
Yeah – the way surface adjustments REDUCE the warming trend is just horrendous.
Oh I’m sorry do you not like that because it disproves your stupid global warming agenda?
Clearly picking up sarcasm is not one of your strong points.
Ya, surface data, like ship engine intake temps, and ocean water in a bucket temps. Wow! Like that REALLY relates to air temps. LMAO. And so high tech.
You DO realise that one of the adjustments is for these engine intake measurements, RIGHT? These sea surface adjustments are the main reason adjustments REDUCE the warming trend. It’s funny how you guys challenge adjustments yet never investigate why they are made.
Prove it
“These sea surface adjustments are the main reason adjustments REDUCE the warming trend.”
Not really. They reduce it in the earlier data, but increase it since 1998. They had to do that to keep an apparent upward trend. Otherwise, they would have had to acknowledge the “pause” that discredits the CO2 induced warming meme. And, they’re not going to allow that until they have absolutely run out of ways to jigger the data to allow them to claim the world is still warming.
The reduction of the long term trend was the price they had to pay to keep the charade going.
You and Tom Clancy should work together.
Don’t be naive.
The only choices are naive or conspiracy theorist?
It’s not a conspiracy theory when you have emails from the players themselves plotting to conspire.
Ive read the emails you previously posted. I dont see much conspiring. I see a lot of technical discussion about the proper way to analyze the data. Not sure why they need to do that if they’re just making up numbers?
Some trash talk about deniers, yes. Not too surprising.
One has to be a conspiracy theorist to see much more to it than that
Reading comprehension can be greatly enhanced by opening one’s eyes.
Theyvare not measuring the same temps, plus troposphere has much larger variance.
But, less bias. In estimation theory, there is always a balance to be struck between bias and variance.
But how do you KNOW it has a larger variance other than by simply trusting the satellite data?
‘how do you KNOW it has a larger variance’ It does, its readily measured.
I’m pretty sure he meant bias. The idea that data points from sparse locations can be extrapolated to produce better measurements than those which densely cover virtually the entire Earth is fantastical. Even if we made a stretch, and assumed the uncertainties were equal, that uncertainty is composed of two components: bias and variance. So, if you observe the one has less variance, you can be assured it has greater bias.
‘So, if you observe the one has less variance, you can be assured it has greater bias.’
What rot! Why would you make such a ridiculous assumption?
It could be that the troposphere has intrinsically more variance than the surface. In fact that is predicted.
See also
http://www.drroyspencer.com/2017/10/uah-global-temperature-update-for-september-2017-0-54-deg-c/#comment-266619
“Why would you make such a ridiculous assumption?”
Because you can’t get something for nothing. The surface data themselves have undergone numerous, substantial revisions. More so than the satellite data. Just look at these two:
https://tinyurl.com/ijbfdty
Which one is right?
‘Because you cant get something for nothing.’
Diversion into other issues that have nothing to do with your statement about ‘variance vs bias’.
Which one is right?
You showed me different data sets which have different global coverage. GISS covers more of the arctic. In any case the difference in trends are not much.
“GISS covers more of the arctic.”
No, it uses an entirely conjectural model to extrapolate measurements over the arctic. Models are not data.
“In any case the difference in trends are not much.”
They’re pretty substantial, especially in the era of the “pause”. GISS has been transparently “adjusted” to do away with the “pause”.
Whatever you say, Bart.
Differences << those between RSS, UAH, and others who have analyzed that data.
Even were what you say true, “differences” is not a valid metric for reliability. The differences in results from homeopathy and magnetic therapy are << mainstream medical approaches – both leave you dead if you have a life threatening illness.
Bizarre analogy….
‘homeopathy’
Comparing mainstream climate science to far outside the mainstream medical science makes no sense.
Because the surface data doesnt indicate it.
I see no reason to prefer one data set over another. All have strengths and limitations.
There are months when even the surface data sets disagree with each other not only on the difference in change on month to another, bet also the sign.
They’re all best estimates, none demonstrably (at this point) better than another.
Also remembering the satellites and surface are measuring temps at very different altitudes. They are not directly comparable, though their general agreement over the long-term gives confidence in long-term generalities (ie, the lower atmosphere has warmed over the last 40 years).
Satellite data takes one reading of each location each day, with each location read at a different time. UAH pretends they can create an algorithm for comparing temperatures of different locations without using surface data to establish a relationship between temperatures at particular times and max/min temperatures for any day. The actual measurement process is fine (at least, any issues are notionally fixable) – the transformation of the data into a global anomaly is NOT a robust process.
16,000 measurements a day, taking 3-4 days to get near-global coverage.
The geo-spatial coverage is better – much better.
Very few instruments are used to get these readings, whereas on the surface there are as many instruments as weather stations. Like the satellites, these, instruments change from time to time, as does their environment. But the number of instrument changes for the surface is orders of magnitude greater than for satellites. Weather stations change locations.
Satellites have their own set of particular problems – orbital drift, decay, contamination from other channels, different satellites stitched together.
I’m not well-informed enough to figure out which system is better at getting a global average or for discerning long-term trends. Without in-depth knowledge, choosing one over the other would be simple barracking.
Right – so each location is being measured only once every 3-4 days. When a surface station is missing 8 days in a month it is not counted in the record for that month as it is not considered representative. So how does 7-10 days of data per month suffice?
‘Very few instruments are used to get these readings, whereas on the surface there are as many instruments as weather stations.’
The bonus with surface data, is redundancy. If one instrument has a systematic error, it can be readily found by comparing to its neighbors. Or if not caught, its effect on global average is still rather small.
Not so for systematic error in the satellite data. Its effect, if not corrected, can be LARGE.
Barry,
‘barracking’ had to look this up in Australian slang dictionary-
‘to cheer on (football team etc.), support, take sides in an argument or controversy’
“The bonus with surface data, is redundancy. If one instrument has a systematic error, it can be readily found by comparing to its neighbors. Or if not caught, its effect on global average is still rather small.”
The surface data are not without systematic errors, e.g. encroaching suburban sprawl, that affect all stations in a particular direction.
And, remember, we are looking at anomalies here. After known systematic, time varying errors have been removed from the satellite data, offset errors have no net impact.
We know, and can compensate for, systematic satellite influences. The surface data are just a grab bag of poorly quantified and poorly understood phenomena over an extremely sparse global station distribution.
‘We know, and can compensate for, systematic satellite influences.’
No I dont think you know at all what you are talking about. Several groups in literature describe attempts to do this, with very different results..
Well well, I did not know ‘barracking’ was slang.
A review of UAH and RSS versions should leave no doubt that the challenges facing satellite data are not easily compensated for. Some of the revisions are larger than surface adjustments. Nate’s point is quite right, too.
The satellite adjustments are straightforward physics. The surface adjustments, not so much.
https://tinyurl.com/y9ctrhls
Where from? An agenda driven blog no doubt.
Bart
Not correct. When a satellite reading FOR A PARTICULAR LOCATION is taken at one particular time of the day, and the reading FOR ANOTHER particular location is taken at another time of the day, some method must be found to adjust those figures before averaging so they represent the same time of day. Given that UAH flatly REFUSE to use surface data to assist them, there is no way of knowing how to compare a 9 am temperature in Sydney with a 3 pm temperature in New York. They basically GUESS the conversion, and there is MUCH room for variation in your guesses. This is not Physics. The guesswork allows different statisticians to bias the data to match their own biases.
Compare trends of UAH to RSS. Then compare trends of NOAA, et al. Which are more consistent? Try to avoid pseudo-political BS claims in arriving at your answer.
Prior to RSS’ cave in, UAH and RSS were very close. GISS and HA**UT are very different.
“…there is no way of knowing how to compare a 9 am temperature in Sydney with a 3 pm temperature in New York.”
For that matter, there is no way of knowing how to compare a 9 am temperature in Sydney with a 9 am temperature in New York, but that’s not stopping anyone. But, diurnal variation is not rocket science.
”. But, diurnal variation is not rocket science.”
Bart, again you assert things that are obviously dumb. Why?
If the professionals clearly disagree on how to do it correctly, then it is not trivial.
Either that, or the “professionals” are.
I know, when science disproves your beliefs, its safe to assume the scientists are lying.
“Everyone likes to point out (ie over-state) the Urban Heat Island effect as a reason that NOAA anomalies might run hot. Based on daily NOAA data, this months anomaly will be around the same as for the past two months. Would anyone care to suggest why NOAA data would run COLD?”
UHI effects aren’t always warming- wind can greatly affect the amount of warming of UHI effects. If rains and ground if wet there also little difference between “natural” and urban temps- urban areas could even dry out quicker from all the hard surfaces.
But generally UHI effect are surfaces which absorb more energy from the sun. Vertical structures which inhibit convectional heat loss, and moisture added to the environment.
And what process would switch the UHI effect off simultaneously in every city around the globe, and in fact make it negative?
It’s windy here.
I don’t think I have ever looked to see if wind is measured globally.
Let’s try:
“We find a general global trend of increasing values of wind speed and, to a lesser degree, wave height, over this period. The rate of increase is greater for extreme events as compared to the mean condition.”
http://science.sciencemag.org/content/332/6028/451
So it’s out there somewhere, I guess.
Of course windiness [or shear winds] are connecting to hurricane formation. Of course with hurricanes it could just be regional thing.
There this but couldn’t open it for some reason:
http://tinyurl.com/ycs9347g
Gosh, that’s a hideous link- use tiny
But without such data, the possibility that this could occur globally is just guesswork.
–Des says:
October 2, 2017 at 7:32 PM
But without such data, the possibility that this could occur globally is just guesswork.–
If you had the data, it would still be guesswork.
But if want it to less of guess, and you want to get your answer, it appears it will require work.
Have YOU done this work?
What is funny is the large difference between weatherbell +.28c and Dr. Spencer’s data +.54c
It is crazy. This is a very big difference and should not be.
Maybe they have different baselines, Sal. You should check that.
Short of that, compare the difference for each data set between August and September. Maybe Weatherbell also had a jump up.
Barry they have always been so close to one another which gave me confidence now I do not know what to think.
If I’m not mistaken didn’t that just adjust the GISS model temperatures a couple months ago and started tampering with all the other satellite temperature measurements citing biases? I should probably search for it first but I’m being lazy. That could be why you have a big discrepancy it’s a different algorithm being used now.
I would have thought that but for the fact that they are always so close month in and month out, until now.
Link me to the Weatherbell page you’re getting your numbers from. I might be able to figure out the baseline. From memory (searching reanalysis source at NOAA), it might not be easy.
Salvatore is indeed wrong.
UAH uses a baseline of 1981-2010.
Weatherbell uses NOAA surface data, which has a baseline of 1901-2000.
This is frustrating because of the large difference in data. WX. BELL and satellite data have ALWAYS been close until this month.
Wx, bell shows global temperatures only +.16 c above normal for the past two weeks.
It is ridiculous.
Barry
In a repeat of last year, the air above the arctic is much warmer than usual. Do you still think it’s just noise?
It’s the refreezing that lets air keep near 0C.
Their anomaly for Oct 2 is +0.37, so not sure what you meant by “the past two weeks”.
What data, Isaac?
Two years of warm Arctic? Yes, it’s just noise.
38 years of temps over Arctic? From this noise you can see if there’s a trend.
Barry
Here is what I look at. Not arguing with you, exactly, just open to the possibility that it’s more than noise.
http://cci-reanalyzer.org/wx/fcst/#GFS-025deg.ARC-LEA.T2_anom
Salvatore, you just made a David Rose-ish error — they use separate baselines.
http://models.weatherbell.com/climate/ncep_cfsr_globe_t2m_week_anom.png
Barry it show from sep25- oct 02 global temp +.159c .
Now I have very little confidence in a report that even favors what I want.
That’s not going to represent September temps (UAH). that’s the last few days of Sep and the first few of Oct. There’s no reason that should match September UAH.
What is the September monthly anomaly for Weatherbell?
I want to believe the satellite data even if it is not in my favor.
I have a funny feeling that revisions are coming.
I can’t believe +.54c it does not make sense.
I am not just saying it because I am against AGW, it has nothing to do with it.
I am lost here.
Time will tell.
So … you believe surface data over satellite data? You are making progress.
“I am lost here.”
Salvatore, it is obvious you have been lost for ages.
Welcome to the world of facts and not fiction.
Salvatore
What if the oceans had recently released a bunch of heat into the atmosphere? I’m thinking they might be a little cooler now as a result. And the atmosphere, of course, would be a little warmer than usual.
Dr Spencer
I appreciate that ocean warm the atmosphere, mainly in the mid latitudes.
If the wind transports that heat away from the ocean source to other locations, will it heat the surface of the water that it transports across.
The satelite records the ocean skin temperature. If I see warming in the southern ocean, or any ocean noted as a transport pathway, could it be transported heat that is warming the ocean surface.
Thank you
Testing
Looks like increasing water vapor (1.5% per decade, 8% since the rate increased in about 1960) is prevailing over declining solar activity and declining net of all ocean cycles . . . for now. But increasing clouds will limit that.
ALL effects associated with the increasing greenhouse effect will continue to prevail over the MINOR reduction in solar activity.
Des – The perception that the effect of solar activity is minor is consistent with the erroneous belief that the only way solar activity can influence earth temperature is by TSI change. That perception does not even do the math correctly.
Where did I say that was the only influence? BTW – did you even realise that it is impossible to predict whether the sun will continue all the way to Maunder-like conditions?
Put a number on “MINOR”
Des Sorry about the abrupt request, I was in a bind on time.
I would really like for you to quantify, if you can, your perception of minor.
What I have seen, essentially, is TSI variation range is about +/- 0.05%.
I did not intend to imply that you considered TSI as the only influence.
As shown in Table 1 of my blog/analysis, a proxy, which is the time-integral of SSN anomalies, accounts for 38% of the average global temperature (AGT) change from 1909 to 2005. That, combined with an approximation of SST oscillation and extrapolated water vapor produces a 98+% match with measured AGT 1895-2015.
By minor, I mean that the drop in TSI from the low point of recent 11-year solar cycles to the level of the Maunder minimum is about the same as the difference between the high and low point of each cycle.
How much of a drop in global temperatures have we noticed from the top to the bottom of a solar cycle? A Maunder-like minimum will give the same drop again
Personally, I have never noticed an 11-year cycle in temperatures … scientists working in the field (NOT the likes of Donald Easterbrook who doesn’t understand the science behind his claims) state that a Maunder minimum would have about a 0.4 degree effect on global average temperatures. In the 1600s, this drop was superimposed on temperatures that had already fallen significantly due to other reasons, given a total dip of 1 degree plus. Today, the effect of those “other reasons” goes the other way.
But all this is predicated on us actually getting a Maunder-like minimum. No scientist is actually able to predict that this will happen. We’ve had two major dips in TSI since the Maunder minimum – neither went all the way. It is not predictable with today’s understanding of the sun.
Des Thanks for the clarification. I do not address that issue.
I have a spreadsheet set up to solve Equation 1 in my blog/analysis (click my name to see the blog/analysis). I treat the time-integral of the SSN anomaly as a proxy (SSN varies in sync with TSI approx. 11 yr fluctuation). With all coefficients (except F which is held at 1.0) calibrated for best fit (max R^2) to reported average global temperatures (AGT), I get an excellent match of 98+% 1895-2015. The effect for which the proxy is accounting amounts to 0.38 or 38% of the AGT change 1909-2005. (AGT is very sensitive to cloud changes. Some (e.g. Svensmark) have found both average cloud altitude and total cloud cover are influenced by SSN).
When I set the coefficient for the proxy to zero and optimize the other coefficients, the match deteriorates significantly with pronounced growing separation after 2005.
As to the influence of solar changes on earth temperature, realize that the sun changes are a forcing, i.e. a power thing whereas earth temperature is an energy thing. Would you compare a trace of your Watt hour meter reading (energy) to a trace of your Watt meter reading (power) and declare they are not related because the traces are a different shape? The time-integral of power is energy. The number of people who overlook this is disturbing, e.g. Figure 1 at http://www.skepticalscience.com/co2-lags-temperature.htm.
Dan Pangburn says:
“Des The perception that the effect of solar activity is minor is consistent with the erroneous belief that the only way solar activity can influence earth temperature is by TSI change.”
Then what is the climate sensitivity to other solar parameters, in degrees C/(W/m2)?
Dav Your question reveals that your thinking/knowledge appears to be constrained. Proxies dont work like that (C/(W/m2)). See above that the time-integral of SSN anomalies accounts for 38% of the AGT change 1909-2015.
DP: Climate sensitivity is measured in degC/(W/m2).
Check your science.
Hello Des
I will strictly deal with September since that is what you gave.I would write a brief wrap around your numbers and admit I am puzzled and ask for their thoughts.
Sure, if it is not associated with a leading question I have no problem. But … it is not my data – you don’t really have to ask my permission.
Just in:
“Great Lakes water temperatures have gone up significantly in the past two weeks, which is usually a time period of quickly falling water temperatures. The six day stretch of record heat around Michigan is the cause of the sharp rise in surface water temperatures. Surface water temperatures on the Great Lakes have been cooler than normal for the second half of summer. Now the rapid warming at a time when lake water is usually cooling has brought water temperatures much above the long term average.’
http://www.mlive.com/weather/index.ssf/2017/09/great_lakes_water_temps_soar_a.html
Oh noes! We’re doomed!
“Now the rapid warming at a time when lake water is usually cooling has brought water temperatures much above the long term average.”
Sloppy. I presume they mean temperature anomaly, which means they are not rapidly warming, just cooling at a reduced rate compared to the tendency of other years. Probably as a result of temporary weather fronts.
I presume they mean temperature anomaly
Yes, you do. But why would you do that?
Good question, Barry.
Because you can’t be bothered checking your presumption. Which is wrong.
Making your “Sloppy” comment perfectly ironic.
So, you’re saying the Great Lakes in the Fall should not be expected to be cooler than in the summer? Mmm… no.
https://coastwatch.glerl.noaa.gov/statistic/avg-sst.php
If you get around to reading the article upon which you made your presumptive critique you will see that they are not talking about anomalies, and that they are talking about an unusual rise in temperatures for the time of year, and not “cooling at a reduced rate.”
Your comment was wrong. Simple as that.
“…they are not talking about anomalies, and that they are talking about an unusual rise in temperatures for the time of year…”
Did you realize you had contradicted yourself within the space of a single sentence there?
No, he didn’t.
No, i didn’t. You presumed wrong the first time. Now you’re doubling down.
It’s simple. At a time of year when temps go down, they’ve gone up.
They’re referring to absolute temps, not anomalies. It’s not “cooling at a reduced rate compared to the tendency of other years.”
I’ve said it before – you don’t admit when you’re wrong. It’s a flaw no true skeptic should possess.
You are no skeptic.
I’ll try to write slowly.
When you say… it is unusual.. for the time of year… you are comparing to other years. That… makes it… an anomaly.
Sheesh.
As all makes clear, it is ABSOLUTE temperature (spoken very slowly) which was RISING.
So you’re statement ‘cooling at a reduced rate’ is wrong.
What is wrong is that Bart cannot ever be wrong, even when he is obviously wrong, which is often the case.
No. Absolute temperatures have been falling since the peak in mid-August.
Bart,
Now tripling down on an originally false, and still false statement. Wow.
You’re trying to keep up with Trump! Not a great role model.
I provided a link above that shows this clearly.
https://coastwatch.glerl.noaa.gov/statistic/avg-sst.php
No, that is not 2017 data.
Actually not that hard to just admit error and move on. Give it try.
There is 2017 data. Your complaint is technically correct but pointless. The summer was cold, then there was a little peak in September. How awful.
https://coastwatch.glerl.noaa.gov/statistic/avg-sst.php?lk=s&yr=0
Sure, if it is not associated with a leading question I have no problem. But … it is not my data – you don’t really have to ask my permission.
Oops – sorry. Accidentally posted this in the wrong place.
Thank you! The 9-months data would have taken me a long time to process.
I note Des is saying all effect but we are being told over and over that CO2 (and all its feed backs etc) is the major cause of the warming of the planet. The temp flat lined from round 2002 to 2015/6 when CO2 went from roughly 370ppm to 400pmm what happened to the overriding. Pretty much the same thing from 1980 to 1997 now all of a sudden with an extra 3 or 4ppm its over ridding, would it not seem logical CO2 has very little to do with the warming
Maybe just maybe something else odd is going on
Regards
“I note Des is saying all effect”
What does that even mean?
Harry
Maybe during those “flat line” periods the oceans were extra greedy and sucked up most of the atmosphere’s excess heat?
When the oceans are less greedy, a warming trend resumes.
Sir Isaac,
Would you like explain with first order principles just how exactly “heat” (I take it that you mean ‘thermalised energy’ when you say “heat” – and just as a side note, exactly how can it be determined what is “excess”?) penetrates into the ocean from above the ocean? I’d be most impressed if you could.
GC
I’m no expert, and wouldn’t be able to impress you. It’s not a hard thing to look up, though. Here’s an overview I found:
http://www.climateprediction.net/climate-science/glossary/atmosphere-ocean-interaction/
It mostly doesn’t.
Sunlight passes thru the ocean surface and largely warms the top few meters.
Such a warmed layer water is also mixed by ocean waves which create a more uniform and deeper amount of warm water. Also constant winds [ie trade winds] can pile up warmer water so it’s a few hundred meter deep.
Of course despite water’s poor conduction of heat, some heat can conducted to lower depths, but it’s mostly heated by sunlight passing thru the transparent ocean [and a portion of sunlight reaches depths greater than 100 meters] and various mechanical mixing mechanisms.
So if you have more mechanical mixing of ocean, more heat is “lost to ocean depths” and less mixing means more is “lost to the atmosphere”
Surface heat is not spread evenly over the ocean. During El Nino, the surface heat is spread more evenly, allowing more heat to escape into the atmosphere. During La Nina, surface heat is concentrated even more than usual in the Western Pacific, leaving large areas of cool water to absorb heat.
Another oceanic “cycle” is the Pacific Decadal Oscillation. I don’t know the specifics of where the warme water accumulates during each phase of the cycle, but the concept is similar. However the PDO operates on a much longer time scale than does ENSO. The “pause” period from 1998 to about 2014 is precisely when the PDO was in a negative phase. Warm water in the northern Pacific was concentrated into a smaller area, leaving larger areas of cool water exposed to the atmosphere. That acts as a sink of heat from the atmosphere.
The PDO left its negative phase around 2014. Since then it has hovered around zero, sometimes positive, sometimes negative. I think at the moment it is slightly negative. So this extra heat over the last couple of years is the catch-up from 16 years in a PDO-neutral state. If we go into a PDO-positive state then there is likely more heat to come. But just like the “pause”, it won’t be reflective of the upward trend caused by the increasing greenhouse effect – we still have to return to the trend when it’s over. It’s also possible that this is only a “pause in the pause” and we will go back to a negative PDO. Deniers just don’t understand how long-term this variability is. Take out all the natural variability and what is left is an upwardly marching snail. How far can a snail move in 100 years?
GC,
How bout less heat escaped from the ocean to space then usual, while input from the sun unchanged.
Despicable lectures us like he knows something. What a crock of horse manure.
“Take out all the natural variability and what is left is an upwardly marching snail.”
A snail that started moving well before CO2 emissions took off in the mid-20th, and is therefore natural variability as well. Take it out, and you have precious little that could be ascribed to CO2.
CO2 emissions started long before that.
The snail is a perfect mascot for the AGW hoax.
1) It’s not going anywhere.
2) It’s easy to squash.
“CO2 emissions started long before that.”
Not in significant amounts.
In the era 1910-1945, the change in temperature anomaly was almost precisely the same as in the era 1970-2005:
https://tinyurl.com/y77fxhwh
In the earlier era, the change in atmospheric CO2 concentration was less than 30 ppm. Compared to a purported pre-industrial level of 280 ppm, that gives a log factor of less than log(310/280) = 0.1. In the latter era, the change in CO2 was from about 325 ppm to 380 ppm, for a log factor of log(380/325) = 0.16, or 60% greater.
Clearly, if CO2 is driving things (which, it isn’t), the earlier warming period has to be explained in large part by something else. But, it is foolish to invoke some speculative phenomenon for almost precisely the same rise.
Occam’s razor clearly suggests the nearly identical warming was caused by the same cause. And thus, apparently, that cause is not CO2.
1. Looking at 50 y trend, which we now have: http://tinyurl.com/y6whc8jh, the earlier rise 0.5, latter 0.85. Not really identical.
2. Bart thinks AGW theory requires co2 to explain ALL variation. A strawman.
3. Circa 1910 we had very high volcanic emissions. Circa 1940 we had a strong peak in PDO. Both contributed to rise between these years.
Septic Gone Fetid
Alternatively – I’m lecturing like you DON’T know anything. Read any science books lately? Dropped in on a science lecture or two?
Bart, 1945 was above the trend line, look:
https://tinyurl.com/yck2o849
Nate –
“1. Looking at 50 y trend, which we now have: http://tinyurl.com/y6whc8jh, the earlier rise 0.5, latter 0.85. Not really identical.”
You are comparing apples and tennis balls. You have to look at the same interval of time. But, the earlier interval cannot be reliably extended past 1900. And, you are being biased upward by the monster El Nino towards the end of the later interval.
“2. Bart thinks AGW theory requires co2 to explain ALL variation. A strawman.”
AGW alarmists posit that CO2 is the major driving force in the warming since the mid-20th century. If it is not, then there are no current grounds for sounding an alarm.
“3. Circa 1910 we had very high volcanic emissions. Circa 1940 we had a strong peak in PDO. Both contributed to rise between these years.”
If the earlier period could have been biased up by such events, then the later one could, too. The SNR of putative CO2 induced warming is then too small to make conclusions.
Svante –
“Bart, 1945 was above the trend line…”
Yes, because that was a peak of the ~65 year cycle superimposed upon the long term trend.
‘AGW alarmists posit that CO2 is the major driving force in the warming since the mid-20th century.’
Yes , but doesnt mean all other natural variation is turned off. For example look at the period 1940 -1960, there was significant natural variation on time scales of 2- 10 y. Very similar to what we have had last 20 y (yes inclu pause), except with a large trend superimposed.
‘You have to look at the same interval of time.’ It is the same 50 y interval.
‘If the earlier period could have been biased up by such events, then the later one could, too.’
Yes, here is effect of PDO http://tinyurl.com/yaq55j95
Bart says:
“because that was a peak of the ~65 year cycle superimposed upon the long term trend.”
Yes, I think you are right, the AMO.
‘And, you are being biased upward by the monster El Nino towards the end of the later interval.’
Yes, this applies equally to the monster El Nino of 1940-42. End the series in 1938 and 2014 then. You will see a sig drop in trend in early 20 th century
“Yes, this applies equally to the monster El Nino of 1940-42.”
There is nothing like the recent El Nino blip in this interval. It is quite clear that the peaks of the ~65 year cycle were in about 1945, and then again in about 2005. That is the appropriate cutoff for comparison.
The latest El Nino blip is very anomalous. It remains to be seen if there has been a regime shift, or if the series will settle back down to the pre-existing pattern. I expect it will, but it will not change my conviction if it does not. The turnaround clearly came on schedule in about 2005.
“. I expect it will, but it will not change my conviction if it does not. ”
Clear indication that you are not doing science, your belief doesnt require real world confirmation.
http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/influences/timeline/
The 40-42 is only one labelled ‘a long el nino’ in soi record.
Bart, your 65 year cycle is found in figure ten here:
https://tinyurl.com/y9v2mlm4
It’s interesting how people can see a couple of ups and downs and believe they have discovered a “cycle”.
Read the paper and tell me where you disagree!
I disagree that two “cycles” establishes a pattern.
Yet, a 30 year vague coinkydink of upward movement in CO2 and temperature establishes a cause and effect relationship. Would that you fellows applied the same level of caution about your own pet hypotheses that you do to competing ones.
For the record, two very uniform cycles is highly suggestive. Much more so that a chance movement in the same, singular direction.
Bart, you find that paper satisfying? What does rest of paper conclude? A clearly increasing long term trend. AGW required to account for it.
.
In 1780 to present record, correlation to GHG forcing 90%.
30 year?? You appear confused.
“I disagree that two cycles establishes a pattern.”
Fair enough Des, but there are five peaks in fig. 10 (although the first two are close and the 2nd is weak).
Bart says:
“Yet, a 30 year vague coinkydink of upward movement in CO2 and temperature establishes a cause and effect relationship.
Cause and effect:
* continued decadal global warming
* stratospheric cooling
* no other causes in sight except aCO2.
* direct measurements:
Radiative forcing measured at Earths surface corroborate the increasing greenhouse effect, R. Philipona et al, Geo Res Letters, v31 L03202 (2004)
http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1029/2003GL018765/abstract
“Observational determination of surface radiative forcing by CO2 from 2000 to 2010,” D. R. Feldman et al, Nature 519, 339343 (19 March 2015)
http://www.nature.com/nature/journal/v519/n7543/full/nature14240.html
This is known as rationalization, DA. It is how people of days past convinced themselves that night gases caused disease, or witches controlled the weather.
Indeed science involves rationalizing, i.e. finding reasons for things, as in the Age of Reason, which we seem to be moving away from.
Definitions 1 and 7.
Bart says:
“This is known as rationalization, DA”
These are AGW predictions that have been observed.
Naturally, you wish to ignore all of them, with no rational at all. But you don’t get to do that.
Your dogmatism is the worst on this blog, because it has no reasoning behind it. You simply dismiss any evidence you don’t like, and you seem to think that will somehow be convincing.
It isn’t in the least.
Harry Cummings says:
“The temp flat lined from round 2002 to 2015/6 when CO2 went from roughly 370ppm to 400pmm what happened to the overriding.”
“Cherry picking” is defined as picking the start and end dates to give you the result you want, whether it’s climatology meaningful or not.
Winter in North America will begin soon.
http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/mtpw2/product.php?color_type=tpw_nrl_colors&prod=namer×pan=24hrs&anim=html5
and I just keep growing older
+1
Wow. Another very warm month. We haven’t had an anomaly below 0.2 since July 2015.
A 13 month average of 0.2 C seemed to be the max during that warm 2002-2007 period. Now the 13 month average has been over 0.2 for over 2 years and it doesn’t look like it will drop below 0.2 anytime soon.
The magnetic field over North America is weakening. Therefore, the jet stream will easily flowed from the Canada.
Changes in Earths magnetic field from January to June 2014 as measured by the Swarm constellation of satellites. These changes are based on the magnetic signals that stem from Earths core. Shades of red represent areas of strengthening, while blues show areas of weakening over the 6-month period.
http://www.esa.int/var/esa/storage/images/esa_multimedia/images/2014/06/magnetic_field_changes/14582173-1-eng-GB/Magnetic_field_changes_node_full_image_2.jpg
They say there’s a 60% chance of a mild La Nina in the coming months (though Roy speaks of it as though it’s a dead certainty), so that will certainly have some effect on anomalies. Ignore the trash responses from the other guy though – he has no idea.
Aye, Roy spoke of a dead certain 2016 la Nina in the middle of last year, too. You’d think he’d be more cautious this time around.
What got me was his later defence of his prediction. I’m only paraphrasing so don’t take the quote verbatim but he said something like “this is the first time a super El Nino has not been immediately followed by a strong La Nina”. Apparently the TWO previous cases of a super El Nino were sufficient to establish a pattern in his mind which enabled him to make a 100% prediction.
Heh, I made the same point last year for the same reason.
There is a longer ENSO record back to 1900, and we see a ‘super el Nino’ not followed by a la Nina in the period 1900-1950. Too lazy to look it up, but I mentioned last year.
barry: there *was* a weak La Nina in the second half of 2016.
It was the warmest La Nina on record.
There was a la Nina only according to the ENSO monitoring system with the easiest threshold. No other. MEI; no. BoM; no. JMA: no. NOAA; yes. One the weakest and shortest-lived la Ninas on record by NOAA data.
Perhaps.
According to Japan’s Met Agency, the actual ENSO prediction looks (since at least one week) like this:
period: El Nino% – neutral% – La Nina%
SEP2017JAN2018: 0 – 40 – 60
OCT2017FEB2018: 0 – 50 – 50
NOV2017MAR2018: 0 – 60 – 40
All is said I guess.
The polar vortex is strong when the magnetic activity of the sun is quite high. That was from July 2017.
https://scontent-bru2-1.xx.fbcdn.net/v/t1.0-9/22089675_722813031257979_72994145818356658_n.png?oh=a6480c048ab4c45aa9cdb62a6e0c464a&oe=5A7D88CC
https://scontent-bru2-1.xx.fbcdn.net/v/t1.0-9/22154332_722812934591322_9034537860188116279_n.png?oh=4a3f57347977b486bdb6d2ac275498e8&oe=5A4F8BE4
Winter in the south runs without major disruption.
http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/stratosphere/strat-trop/gif_files/time_pres_TEMP_MEAN_ALL_SH_2017.png
In the south of WHAT?
Des says:
In the south of WHAT?
http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/stratosphere/strat-trop/gif_files/time_pres_WAVE1_MEAN_ALL_SH_2017.png
Just checking …. you DO know you’re permitted to respond in ENGLISH, right?
Ren which data for Sept do you think is correct?
For now it looks like that.
http://images.tinypic.pl/i/00936/ysaksde8y2e4.png
http://models.weatherbell.com/climate/ncep_cfsr_globe_t2m_week_anom.png
Data does not match one of them is not correct. This source has =.28c for sep
Salvatore Del Prete on October 3, 2017 at 4:55 AM
http://models.weatherbell.com/climate/ncep_cfsr_globe_t2m_week_anom.png
Data does not match one of them is not correct.
Scusi Salvatore, but… why do you persist in comparing Roy Spencer’s UAH with Ryan Maue’s WeatherBell?
– WeatherBell is reanalysis of data obtained at 2m above surface;
– UAH is analysis of O2 microwave emission in the troposphere, performed from satellites.
Between the two, there is not only a gap of 24 C (UAH: about 264 K compared with 288 at surface); there is also a lag of at least 4 months between the two, what you best can see during ENSO events.
Thus even when surface and troposphere correlate here and there, especially over land, they nevertheless behave quite differently.
This is a little extreme and in the past they have been very close.
Very informative, Bin.
Thanks!
You’re welcome!
g*e*r*a*n, you sound reasonable and polite for once!
What happened?
He’s David A is disguise.
I’m always reasonable. I just like to refute pseudoscience. Some believe that is being impolite.
Bin offered some relevant and interesting info. I was appreciative.
Lewis, I always comment under my real name.
But I’m glad to see I’m so much in your head that you’re thinking about me even when others are replying.
Salvatore: Different baselines. See above.
Oceanic temperatures have been dropping that point is not in question.
A month is not enough to talk about La Nina. At most about a change of circulation.
http://pics.tinypic.pl/i/00936/nkbjoetyq79u.png
Exactly ren. We are way below any persistent la Nina level:
http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/enso/index.shtml#tabs=SOI
http://ds.data.jma.go.jp/tcc/tcc/products/elnino/elmonout.html
Now a fairly strong east wind in the Western Pacific.
https://www.longpaddock.qld.gov.au/seasonalclimateoutlook/southernoscillationindex/30daysoivalues/
The jet stream was in September latitudinal.
English please.
The jet stream was latitudinal in September.
What does “latitudinal” mean in this context?
Wind blows along the latitude.
Carlinesque: Wind from west.
Sal, I tried to find the baseline for Weatherbell’s anomalies, but it is hard to pin down. Could be 1999-2010, which would make W/Bell anomalies generally lower than UAH. But could also be 1982-2010, which would make the similar. Finding out which version of NCEP CFSv2 data is operational for W/Bell is tough going.
However, you shouldn’t worry too much. Surface anomalies and satellites don’t track well over every month, though they often are similar.
I’d wait for the surface sets’ September data to come out and see where that sits with UAH/Weatherbell.
Hello barry,
http://models.weatherbell.com/climate/ncep_cfsr_globe_t2m_week_anom.png
At the left bottom you see:
1981-2010 climatology
Climatology is a strange name, quite as strange as is ‘anomaly’.
Reminds me words like ‘coloscopy’ etc etc.
Gah, I looked right at that map for a clue and missed it. Thanks.
Well Salvatore, the baselines are the same.
Doesn’t Weatherbell use NOAA station data?
NOAA’s surface temperature baseline is 1901-2000.
Weatherbell uses a NOAA reanalysis product that has a different baseline to their surface data set.
What baseline does Weatherbell use?
Thanks Barry
Visible are very large difference in sea surface temperatures in the south and north. So winter was frosty.
http://www.ospo.noaa.gov/data/sst/anomaly/2017/anomnight.10.2.2017.gif
I have big concerns that we have no plan for lower crop production due to a cooling world. Are our governments trying to wipe people out. Agenda 21 and 2030. We had the same issue in the UK when we made the decision to Brexit, no plan B, the government thought we would be stupid enough to buy their lies.
Speaking of anomalies, something weird has been happening over the Arctic Ocean. Several years now. Summers are normal, but the rest of the year – not nearly as cold as usual. Barry thinks it’s “noise”, I’m not so sure.
Reposted from upthread:
http://cci-reanalyzer.org/wx/fcst/#GFS-025deg.ARC-LEA.T2_anom
More specifically:
Warm anomalies from September – March
Normal temperatures April – August
Also, I’m also referring specifically to the Arctic Ocean area, rather than the Arctic in general.
Sorry about the extra “also”. Forgot to proofread.
You are right. More open water, less snow on ice, thinner ice => more laten heat escaping from the seawater, warmer air. Less cold air I mean.
Isaac,
I have no doubt that the arctic has warmed over the long term, that different regions have slightly different warming characteristics.
I just think you need more time to see if anything more than the usual interannual variation is occurring.
Barry
The warming is right over the Arctic Ocean. Consistently. It seems like that could be significant. The Arctic Ocean is where ice has been thinning, and where the Earth’s axis of rotation is located. Of course, could also just be a coincidence.
Maybe. The map you provided is a forecast analysis. Move the slider to the right and it’s showing you temps over the next 7 days. It isn’t a map of *actual* anomalies.
This is a good site with very good input from all sides pro/con AGW.
Who wants everyone to agree. It would be so boring if it were so.
Great!
Yet you are impervious to your many past failed predictions, and to science.
Crop failure here in south central Alaska. Our carrots are miniature this year. Fraction of their normal size. Anyone who has tasted our carrots knows they are the best in the world. Just like our Copper River reds. The summer that never was… If Mt. Agung blows, next summer will no doubt be even worse. Mind you, this is coming off -33f last winter (the coldest here in 30 years). Anyone still buying the hoax needs to spend a week in that.
Darwin
Right. If it’s cold in your neck of the woods, it must be cold everywhere.
Darwin
If you’re going to claim global warming is a hoax, at least take the time to look at the globe.
http://cci-reanalyzer.org/wx/fcst/#GFS-025deg.WORLD-CED.T2_anom
15 C is pretty cold- you should wear a coat.
Average temperature in Canada is -4 C. Average temperature in US is 13 C.
Tropics about 27 C. Tropics are where the tropical paradises can be found.
We in icebox climate. It’s cold.
No one in history of our planet who has been sane wants it to get colder.
But somehow [probably due to poor education] people are worried about it getting a bit warmer.
Very well stated, gbaikie.
Which is my point. I hope it does get warmer. Longer growing season etc. The worst thing (so far as AGW is concerned) is for more ice and snow to occur. Shorter growing seasons etc. That would be much worse than flooding Miami, New Orleans and NYC.
I have a big problem with that line of thinking. Life on earth has adapted to what gbaikie calls an “icebox climate”. If the warming is too fast, which I think is likely, the result could be very bad.
I do appreciate that the conversation has changed from:
“there’s no warming, it’s a government conspiracy, scientists are corrupt, fudged data, it’s all a hoax!”
To: “warmer is better”
“Sir Isaac Snapelton says:
October 3, 2017 at 5:13 PM
I have a big problem with that line of thinking. Life on earth has adapted to what gbaikie calls an icebox climate. If the warming is too fast, which I think is likely, the result could be very bad.”
I think very wishful thinking to hope Earth will warm.
Warming has to have rising sea levels and rise of 1 meter is not much warming.
The sea levels have risen about 8 inches and about 2″ of the 8 inches has been considered to be due to ocean thermal expansion [the entire ocean or significant part of it [not the surface] warming].
In last interglacial period ocean warm about 6 meters higher than our current sea level. And probably at least couple of meters of the rise was due to more thermal expansion than we have. Or to get as warm as last interglacial period will require thousands of years.
In a thousand year some humans could be living in another star system. But within a century we should have people living in towns on Mars. And within century we should have Solar Power Satellite. I would like to see SPS within the next 60 years. It would require a lot of work and a lot of time, but could possible if we would ever explore the lunr polar region and determine if there water which could be profitable to mine. Or to make it simple, lunar water one sell or buy at about 500 per lb. So not water which cost more than $1000 per lb. And other things like electrical power which can bought at $50 per Kw hours.
And with free market, these prices could be lower over decades of time, so that lunar water is about $10 per lb and electrical power is about $1 per Kw hours. And within fifty years electrical power might close to earth prices- 5 cents a kw hour, and water probably still 10 or 100 times more than cost of water on Earth.
Somewhere around this point we could get SPS for Earth, and have electrical prices cheaper than now.
Or roughly the price of electrical in space is expensive, and it needs to lower by large amount before we can get electrical power from orbit. Or NASA study said launch cost have get above $100 per kg. It’s wrong, but launch cost do have lower. But we don’t launch cost from Earth to lower by a lot, rather we need launch cost from the Moon to lower by a lot.
But in terms of long term trend Earth launch cost has be lowering every decade and should continue. So if sit on butt, in century we might have SPS without exploring the Moon, first. Maybe some country in Africa will explore the Moon. Though China has been doing it [at snail’s pace] probably manage to do before 100 years has past.
–Sir Isaac Snapelton says:
October 3, 2017 at 5:46 PM
I do appreciate that the conversation has changed from:
theres no warming, its a government conspiracy, scientists are corrupt, fudged data, its all a hoax!
To: warmer is better–
For government conspiracies, one needs a smarter government- it’s never has happened and will never happen.
Government and government employees do bad stuff- or humans are “naturally” evil, plus you got: power corrupt and absolute power corrupts absolutely.
This corruption mostly is due and related to enormous stupidity. So basically government conspiracies are an oxymoron. Like, idea that intelligence agencies behave similar to being intelligent [though if lying = intelligence then they are geniuses].
There is no warming form CO2 which has been measured.
Scientist are corrupt- just look at climategate.
It’s a hoax- there is no danger or need to spend trillions of dollars to make wind mills and solar panels [which don’t reduce CO2 emission and don’t make valuable electrical power].
“Warming is better” was known by the “father” of global warming. He was wrong about Co2 levels causing cooling and warming periods, but not wrong about warming being good for humans and life in general on planet Earth.
gbaikie on October 3, 2017 at 4:23 PM
1. No one in history of our planet who has been sane wants it to get colder.
2. But somehow [probably due to poor education] people are worried about it getting a bit warmer.
To (1): you hardly could write something more evident.
To (2): hopefully your education has been rich enough to let you understand a posteriori how poor this your sentence in fact is.
Nobody here is ‘worried about it getting a bit warmer‘, gbaikie.
Many people’s job actually is to avoid ‘it’ getting too warm. And they do that on the base of what other people analysed up to 30 years ago.
At that time, gbaikie, there were incredibly few skeptic scientists at work to counterbalance the other scientists’ opinion, research and results.
Why?
Today, skeptics all are whining about ‘peer-reviewed trash’ and the like.
If they had done their work in due time, they wouldn’t need to complain about that today, and you wouldn’t need to write your, sorry, somewhat poor comment.
gbaikie…”Average temperature in Canada is -4 C. Average temperature in US is 13 C”.
Depends on where you live in Canada. That -4C reveals the problem with averages.
I live on the west coast of Canada, in Vancouver. a temperature of -4C would be considered very low here and we would be praying for it to pass. Such cold is related to cold air from the Arctic descending on us. We even call it ‘Arctic air’.
On a monthly basis, the lowest monthly average we experience is +4C in January.
http://www.holiday-weather.com/vancouver/averages/
I can buy into the -4C as a national average when you consider the average temp on the Prairies is -20C. It can periodically drop to -50C, which is not all that bad with clear skies and sunshine. Not so much fun at night when the Sun is gone.
With extremes like -50C on occasion you can see that offsetting warmer temps are required to arrive at an average of -4C. Same in the States where temps in their Prairies can drop to the same -50C. I read a book by David Breshears, the famed mountaineer, who slept outside in a sleeping bag at -40C in Wyoming.
When we claim a global average of such and such, it means absolutely nothing to the locals.
— Bindidon says:
October 4, 2017 at 5:36 AM
gbaikie on October 3, 2017 at 4:23 PM
1. No one in history of our planet who has been sane wants it to get colder.
2. But somehow [probably due to poor education] people are worried about it getting a bit warmer.
To (1): you hardly could write something more evident.–
Yes I like to remind people of the very obvious. Like the tropics warms the world and the tropic high average average increases the global average temperature.
Or people in Europe shouldn’t imagine they living in place with average temperature as high as 15 C. They are living in refrigerator and worried about warming- nutty- though of course, Germans have even less justification. If I wanted to use pseudoscience: it’s probably due to sense of guilt for their past global colonization projects wrecking people’s lives [not mention their world wars and etc]. But it’s simpler to blame their lousy education- which wastes far too much their time.
-To (2): hopefully your education has been rich enough to let you understand a posteriori how poor this your sentence in fact is.-
Oh it hasn’t. Don’t expect good grammar or even a properly edited sentence from me.
If there was edit function I might manage to correct my spelling and other typos.
At https://www.nasaspaceflight.com/ there such a thing, and I will spend more time editing a post then the time it took to post it. But with such option, I still not overly interested in proper grammar- just words not spelled correctly and over redundancy and omission of words.
–Nobody here is worried about it getting a bit warmer, gbaikie.–
Good news.
–Many peoples job actually is to avoid it getting too warm. And they do that on the base of what other people analysed up to 30 years ago.–
Well their job should be eliminated, obviously.
–At that time, gbaikie, there were incredibly few skeptic scientists at work to counterbalance the other scientists opinion, research and results.
Why?–
Because being a believer is government job requirement?
–Today, skeptics all are whining about peer-reviewed trash and the like.–
If today, means over last 50 to 100 years
–If they had done their work in due time, they wouldnt need to complain about that today, and you wouldnt need to write your, sorry, somewhat poor comment.–
I heard many people were inspired by the junk science of the hockey stick. I wasn’t, it seemed like same old crap to me.
So today, in regard to that is about 15 years.
lewis says:
“Which is my point. I hope it does get warmer. Longer growing season etc”
Lewis refuses to consider how warming would affect anyone other than him.
It’s Trumpian-level narcissism.
lewis says:
October 3, 2017 at 4:54 PM
“Which is my point. I hope it does get warmer. Longer growing season etc.”
Crop yields expected to fall as temperatures rise, Emily Morris, Science
08 Sep 2017: Vol. 357, Issue 6355, pp. 1012-1013
DOI: 10.1126/science.357.6355.1012-f
http://science.sciencemag.org/content/357/6355/1012.6
(Sorry to bother you, Lewis, with actual science.
You may now return to your narcissistic, fantasy world.)
Sir Isaac
This is a snaphot describing the actual situation on a given day. What we rather need is information containing trends over 30 years.
For example something like this:
http://www.nsstc.uah.edu/climate/2016/december/DEC1978_DEC2016_trend_LT.png
(I don’t have such a picture at hand for surfaces, maybe we could manage to find one at WeatherBell.)
Bindidon
A snapshot was the best I could do, but I’m guessing I would be able to show a similar picture (warm anomaly over the Arctic Ocean) every day from now until April. That was definitely the case last fall/winter.
Not sure exactly when the pattern started, but it’s interesting to keep an eye on.
A ‘warm anomaly’ is anything above the 30-year baseline. We know temps have risen fast in the Arctic, so seeing warm anomalies in recent years should be absolutely no surprise.
snape…”Right. If its cold in your neck of the woods, it must be cold everywhere”.
The point Darwin is making is well taken by me. It’s supposed to be warming in Alaska. All the ice is gone, don’t ya know?
It *is* warming in Alaska — +0.70 C in the last 20 years, +1.14 C in the last 30 years.
Not enough for you?
Darwin: NO..AA data says Alaska’s summer (June-July-August) was 1.3 deg C above the 1981-2000 baseline.
http://tinyurl.com/ybhw8bma
Des says on October 2, 2017 at 3:51 PM (and alii)
Now that the UAH anomaly is high, let me point out how little I trust this data set. There is absolutely NO WAY September temperatures were 0.25 degrees above July.
What a strange series of comments, replies, counterreplies, one containing more polemic than the next!
A commenter above addressed the problem accurately:
OleKlemsdal says:
October 2, 2017 at 2:10 PM
It is interesting that the troposphere develops so different from surface series the last couple of months, and I think it must be related to the tiny spike in the multivariate enso index an effect that has already vanished in surface measurements.
https://www.esrl.noaa.gov/psd/enso/mei/
Ole Klemsdal is perfectly right.
We all know that tropospheric temperatures highly react on El Nino bumps, and there has been one, after all.
And everybody having a look at any comparison of UAH with MEI can see that there is sometimes a 4-5 month lag between El Nino bumps occuring for example in the Nino3+4 region (5S-5N — 170W-120W) and the TLT response registered by UAH and others.
Here is the MEI for 2016-2017:
2016 | 2.227 | 2.169 | 1.984 | 2.124 | 1.77 | 1.069 | .354 | .186 | -.101 | -.379 | -.212 | -.121
2017 | -.055 | -.056 | -.08 | .77 | 1.455 | 1.049 | .461 | .027
You see that the UAH bump can be pretty good identified with the MEI bump 4 months before.
RSS4.0 TLT did similar in August with a 0.712 anomaly.
Surface temperatures sometimes do not react to such little bumps.
Given that the MEI data has a time-dependent trend, I don’t regard it as being the most useful for predicting ENSO conditions. And neither do most meteorologists apparently.
1. I don’t understand what you mean here with a ‘time-dependent trend’. All data here are after all time series; how could their trends be ‘time-independent’ ?
Any idea?
2. Maybe Des should carefully read what is written on MEI’s pages
https://www.esrl.noaa.gov/psd/enso/mei/table.html
https://www.esrl.noaa.gov/psd/enso/mei/index.html
e.g. about the integration of
– NINO3+4
– pressure difference between Darwin and Tahiti
– etc etc.
ENSO is a bit more than a simpl average of SST in 5S-5N–170W-120W.
3. And neither do most meteorologists apparently.
Maybe you give us some proof of your assertion?
Perhaps I should have said a STRONG time-dependent trend. One that suggests we should be having more and more El Nino months, which is clearly not the case.
Satellite temperatures are more sensitive to strong ENSO events, but (from memory) not so much to the ENSO region fluctuations beneath the event thresholds.
If anyone feels like doing it, a monthly anomaly plot of ENSO index, and surface and satellite monthly anomalies (detrended) would allow at least a visual inspection of any correlation.
I’ve already done that in a much more restricted sense. It is not a monthly plot – it is a scatter plot where each dot represents one El Nino or La Nina event:
https://drive.google.com/file/d/0B2v56RP5XU7Gb081dGd4Y051S2c/view?usp=sharing
Apologies for forgetting to label the axes. The horizontal axis is ONI and the vertical axis is detrended UAH.
The ONI reading is the average of the THREE highest (or lowest) consecutive monthly ONI readings during any one ENSO event. The UAI reading is the highest (or lowest) monthly value of the detrended UAI during each ENSO event.
I know this does not show what you were looking for. But with a good chance of a coming La Nina, it gives an idea of the drop in UAI we can expect from a La Nina event, a drop which would have to be exceeded for Salvatore Del FREEZE to have any chance of claiming a cooling climate.
As I have taken the max (min) values for both ONI and UAH during any ENSO event, not necessarily (and typically not) from the same month, the effect of the lag is implicitly included.
As you can see, except for very weak La Ninas and very strong El Ninos, there seems to be very little correlation between the strength of an event and its effect on temperature anomalies.
In the El Nino graph, the lowest dot represents Pinatubo, and the third dot from the right represents El Chichon. So they can be excluded to establish any trend.
What I don’t understand is why certain scientist think climate is easier to predict than weather. We all know climate changes, but know one really knows how and why all different climate changes in earths history took place. With the weather we know what changes the weather from day to day and month to month, because we have accurately gathered the data and the causes, from a long period of time as compared to the system. But even then Scientists often can’t even predict the weather for tomorrow within 2 degrees C for a given hour, averaged for the whole hour. And if it’s 1-2 weeks out forget about any accurate weather prediction. We have more knowledge about weather than we do climate. We don’t understand all the cycles, all the causes, all the randomness. When we can start predicting weather a month out, or hurricanes a year out, a volcanoes a month out, or earthquakes at all, when the next solar flair will be, then I might start “knowing” instead of “believing”, in AGW.
Watch this video: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=5fYbr_dY01Q
ALL THE WAY TO THE START OF QUESTION TIME.
Duncan
Are you familiar with football? When Alabama played Vanderbilt a few weeks ago, you couldn’t have predicted what would happen from one play to the next, but you knew for sure Alabama would eventually win.
I think it’s naive to judge long term predictions based on how well meteorologists do in the short term.
Very good analogy. Another one that is likely too scientific for our friend … when a radioactive substance decays, there is no way of predicting which atom will decay next, but you are extremely confident of the ultimate rate of decay.
You treat me like I am not very scientific. I program Control Systems. If one could program a car that can drive itself I am very familiar with predicting, and statistics.
lets say our existence started an hour ago, and we started trying to predict weather. From our observation we would predict the day would continue to warm and warm and warm and we would be surprised when it started to cool again. I can average the weather for a whole hour and yet the trend would still be warming. same thing goes with summer and winter. Then El nino and La nina…… What other patterns are we missing? We only have been recording for a very short period of time. And don’t tell me about tree rings and glacier content. That’s like trying to measure temperature of the whole united states with the of snowfall you had in 10 random cities in a given year. Sure there is some correlation, but just because there was more snowfall doesn’t mean it was a colder year, and your sample size is so small it doesn’t mean anything anyway.
Duncan,
You seem to be in disbelief that science can find causes for what we observe in long term trends. It can, even though shorter periods are more problematic.
You mention seasons. Again we can predict the warming from spring to summer, while doing poorly on predicting next week.
Also, we have very long climate records -of glatial and interglacial periods, and a decent understanding of the causes.
nate…”You seem to be in disbelief that science can find causes for what we observe in long term trends”.
‘Science’ has still not found an adequate explanation for long term trends. The anthropogenic theory does not cut it in several ways. The modern AGW theory came from climate modelers who include among their ranks, mathematicians, astronomers, and those least likely to offer a coherent explanation as to why trace gases in the atmosphere should produce catastrophic warming.
It’s far more reasonable to presume their theories are wrong and go in search of the real reasons for the warming. There is a perfectly reasonable explanation for warming over the past century, cooling from the Little Ice Age. It makes perfect sense yet many are unwilling to let go of an archaic theory related to 0.04% of the gases in the atmosphere causing catastrophic warming.
The word ‘science’ is a generic term that can apply to anything with a half-baked formalized approach to investigation.
‘Cooling from LIA’, so naming something makes it science?
duncan…”You treat me like I am not very scientific. I program Control Systems. If one could program a car that can drive itself I am very familiar with predicting, and statistics”.
You’ll find around here, and in many blogs, a core of so-called experts who would shame Jehovah’s Witnesses who appear door to door. The MO of a JW is to counter anything you say with a reference in the Bible. They take the written word as the absolute truth.
The alarmists around here do the same. Their written word is the IPCC dogma, unless the IPCC contradicts their own dogma as they did in 2013. That year, the IPCC admitted there had been no global warming during the 15 year period from 1998 – 2012.
Alarmists around here even quote skepticalscience, a propaganda machine run by an Australian who admits he is a cartoonist. There are photos of him on the Net dressed as a Nazi and it is claimed he has impersonated physicist Lubos Motl.
When you point that out, the alarmists attack you with everything from ad homs to convenient fact. They will do everything but admit the truth.
My interest has been related to why CO2 would suddenly stop warming for 15 years, a period that has been extended to 18 years. Makes no sense but alarmists claim such a periods of inexplicable science occur. They have no proof of that other than a consensus of agreement that such ‘must be’ the case.
Gordons idea of ‘science’ a little different than most. He thinks AIDS not caused by a virus, but by ‘lifestyle’.
He latches on to notions and never lets go, no matter how thoroughly they are debunked.
Duncanbelem
Have you watched the video yet?
Nate claims: “Also, we have very long climate records -of glatial and interglacial periods, and a decent understanding of the causes.”
My best laugh of the day!
Thanks, Nate.
Ger, again rhetoric, again no evidence.
Gordon,
‘photos of him on the Net dressed as a Nazi’
Do you know what a smear campaign is? You are participating in one.
I believe you have similarly done so for Hansen, Mann, Gavin Schmidt, Karl, etc
All of the most productive and influential climate scientists are the ones that get smeared.
Makes sense.
Gordon Robertson says:
“My interest has been related to why CO2 would suddenly stop warming for 15 years, a period that has been extended to 18 years.”
Of course it didn’t. And you have never offered the slightest proof that it did.
Ocean heat content shows the continued warming clearly. The data:
http://tinyurl.com/jbf2xco
Gordon Robertson says:
“The modern AGW theory came from climate modelers who include among their ranks, mathematicians, astronomers, and those least likely to offer a coherent explanation as to why trace gases in the atmosphere should produce catastrophic warming.”
Yet you’ve clearly done this calculation for yourself.
Do it.
How much warming should result when Earth’s atmospheric CO2 increases from 280 ppm to 405 ppm?
Talk is cheap.Do it.
Gordon Robertson says:
“My interest has been related to why CO2 would suddenly stop warming for 15 years, a period that has been extended to 18 years.”
Your playing intentionally dumb is getting very very tiresome.
Or maybe you aren’t playing.
Yes, but if the IPCC were making the prediction they would adjust the past performance of both teams, and then conclude that Alabama would win by 250 points. /sarc
snape…” When Alabama played Vanderbilt a few weeks ago, you couldnt have predicted what would happen from one play to the next, but you knew for sure Alabama would eventually win”.
The predictions were based on Alabama’s past record and the quality of players and coaching. That’s far different than programming a computer to predict the future based on pseudo-science plugged into the program.
Gordon
Do you not understanding the point I was trying to make?
“I think it!s naive to judge long term predictions based on how well meteorologists do in the short term.”
EXACTLY!! Predictions of the result are made INDEPENDENTLY of the individual plays. You don’t need to know ANYTHING about the plays to understand the big picture. Similarly, future climate is NOT arrived at by analysing individual waether events. Replace “quality of players and coaching” with “climate forcings” and you have the picture.
duncan…”What I dont understand is why certain scientist think climate is easier to predict than weather”.
Not all scientists are created equal. In fact, not many have the ability of an Einstein to divorce their ego-based minds from the objectivity required to do good science.
Many of the so-called scientists predicting climate are climate modelers who lack the background in applicable physics to understand what they are doing. They have jumped to the conclusion, for example, that C02 has a warming effect in the atmosphere of 9% to 25% yet CO2 makes up only 0.04% of the atmosphere.
That is a blatant contradiction of Dalton’s Law of Partial Pressures. Since the atmosphere is essentially a constant volume, constant mass system, atmospheric temperature is directly proportional to atmospheric pressure in an idealized atmosphere with no convective currents. Even with the convection it should still apply even though convection can create local high/low pressure systems.
Atmospheric pressure as a whole is based on the sum of the pressures contributed by each gas in the mix. The pressure is determined by the mass-percent of each gas in the mix. At a mass of around 0.04%, it is ludicrous to claim CO2 has a warming factor of 9% to 25%. If the mass-percent of CO2 is hundredths of a percent of the total, it should contribute no more than a few hundredths of a degree C to atmospheric warming.
Clearly, many of the so called scientists predicting catastrophic climate change are out to lunch.
Gordon,
‘They have jumped to the conclusion, for example, that C02 has a warming effect in the atmosphere of 9% to 25% yet CO2 makes up only 0.04% of the atmosphere.’
Why don’t we use copper as an insulator instead of rubber?
Different atoms have very different properties. Its not so difficult.
‘jumped to a conclusion’
Not exactly, here is a paper from 1938, well reasoned, thorough, no politics, just good science.
https://www.rmets.org/sites/default/files/qjcallender38.pdf
Tell me what you think he did wrong..
Duncanbelem says:
October 3, 2017 at 10:39 PM
“What I dont understand is why certain scientist think climate is easier to predict than weather.”
Here’s how I think about it. If you’re in a swimming pool of water, you encounter various hot and cold spots. The location of those fluctuations is very hard to predict, as is how long they will last or where they will appear or disappear next.
But the average temperature of the pool is much easier to predict — it will slowly cool as the day cools and night comes. You can calculate it via very basic thermodynamics.
The first instance is like weather. The second is like climate.
I finally watched the video above. There is a lot of mathematical hand waving going on.
It is very easy to predict the weather 1 second from now. It is even easier to predict the weather 1 foot away from me 1 sec from now. So why is it very easy to predict the weather for a short period of time with no averaging going on. Even I, without a computer could fairly accurately predict the weather 10 minutes from now given only two things time of day and current temperature.
It is also very easy to predict the climate 1 year from now within 1 degree Celsius. Because climate changes slower than weather, because of averaging over time and space. But averaging doesn’t always make a chaotic system less chaotic. It just makes changes slower. You just have to have more time, to make the climate system more chaotic.
Food for thought, I don’t know the answer. How do they know, ice during the ice age was a mile high? and the Climate was 8 degrees colder? I have no idea how they determine that.
Also it is impossible for a computer program to model chaos, or generate a truly random number. Computers always repeat patterns. I guess there could be one way and that is to sample a chaotic system. But each chaotic system is different.
https://www.random.org/
Duncanbelem says:
“How do they know, ice during the ice age was a mile high? and the Climate was 8 degrees colder? I have no idea how they determine that.”
So go learn.
Read. Study. Learn.
‘Because climate changes slower than weather, because of averaging over time and space. But averaging doesnt always make a chaotic system less chaotic.’
Yes indeed.
Still predicting an average quantity in a chaotic system can be straightforward.
Put a pan of water on the stove on high. As it heats it will have lots of turbulent convection, causing large spatiotemporal temperature variations.
Yet its average temperature will increase smoothly, easily predicted.
It is funny how Roy blocks off certain threads in this blog, but only when the final poster is a denier. Apparently it is OK to make people write a long post and not have it come through.
— Des says:
October 3, 2017 at 11:41 PM
It is funny how Roy blocks off certain threads in this blog, but only when the final poster is a denier.–
I am under the impression it’s WordPress rather than anything Roy is doing.
Though Roy did try to block someone who was… more problematic, than all the other crazies which are posting.
And Roy may have broke it, in his desperate attempts.
But perhaps not.
I have not noticed certain [or any] threads being blocked off.
–Apparently it is OK to make people write a long post and not have it come through.–
But that happen all the time. Cause I tend to write long posts and with lots of links.
It will block post if there is some word “it” doesn’t like.
I usually experiment by cutting a long post in half and narrow it down, to help find the word or symbol.
Ab*sorp*tion is one word it doesn’t like.
Which is a pain if talking about climate.
Sounds plausible except for one detail … as I said, it seems only to be a problem in threads where the final post is by a denier. As though they should get the final word. Perhaps not a large enough sample though.
Conspiracy theories are usually false Despite.
Des!
gbaikie…”Ab*sorp*tion is one word it doesnt like”.
Two others are Had.crut and re.frig.eration (required two dots).
I find one dot in absorp.tion works. It seems to depend on where you place the dot.
I have found several URL’s it won’t allow unless the word it doesn’t like in the URL name is dotted out. In such a case, it’s necessary to include the dot then advise the reader to cut/paste the URL while removing the dot.
It was a common practice a while back to replace the http in a URL with hxxp to get the URL posted. I don’t think that works with WordPress, they have spelling issues.
If that’s an actual thing, it’s coincidence. I doubt Roy believes many people are reading these meandering comments and snark to the Nth post, and that it will make a whit of difference who has the last word.
I have 10 old posts open from yesterday. Here are the numbers on the last comments.
Skeptics: 4
Realists: 4
Unknown: 2
‘Realists’ is just to get a rise. I feel impish today.
des…”It is funny how Roy blocks off certain threads in this blog, but only when the final poster is a denier”.
Roy is not blocking posts, he doesn’t have the time. It is WordPress, the host of the blog. They have a filter that blocks certain words, even in URLs.
The word Had.crut can’t get past the filter without a dot in it. Same with absorp.tion. Yesterday I found re.frig.eration requires two dots.
I have asked posters to reveal the words they found blocked by WordPress so the rest of us can avoid them.
I have complained directly to WordPress with no response.
In the threads where I am blocked, I have tried to post just “test” and it hasn’t got through.
I think it blocks you if you try too many times. Has no one else noticed that?
WordPress is the worst software ever released onto the Internet, and not just for this reason. You literally cannot delete your WP account.
250 hPa ~10,500 m, jet stream.
https://earth.nullschool.net/#current/wind/isobaric/250hPa/orthographic=-95.58,49.39,519
Yawn
des…”Yawn”
Ren’s contribution to this blog regarding weather and climate science far outweighs your blatant alarmist nonsense. It’s like an alarmist, however, to yawn with boredom when real science is presented.
Really? So what is he telling us with this post?
As Gordon hinted, ren is teaching you “real science”.
The course is “Climate 101–The Atmosphere is NOT a blanket”.
Try to stay awake, so you will learn.
As requested, please explain precisely what THAT post was “teaching”.
Gordon Robertson
A big problem is you need to look in a mirror. You do not post real science. You post your own quack version of science and call it good. Many posters have given you links to look at and read to correct your phony science. You never read or look and just go right on posting all your false and made up physics. Strange person your are. One who could accuse others of peddling false science when you seem to be a major contributor to intentionally posting your own created version of physics.
I see you ARE looking in a mirror as you make that comment.
Gordon is happiest when he is ignorant. He isn’t interest in science, data or facts in the least.
Just try to imagine such an existence, if you can.
I’ve been reviewing the comments from last year. Wanted to check my memory about things on global temps that were popping up regularly during and just after the big el Nino.
A very common theme was skeptics saying that a la Nina would surely follow, and that the ‘pause’ would resume. A few said the el Nino was a speedbump in a now-cooling trend.
The irascible mpainter was totally convinced a la Nina would form shortly after the el Nino, wiping out the warm spike in due course. He sneered at comments that this was not certain, and vouched that people were too stupid to see it was obvious that a la Nina always follows immediately after a super el Nino. When he was linked to expert opinion only giving la Nina 70% chance, he scoffed at the experts and admonished others to use their own brains.
Pity he disappeared later in 2016.
Well, not really.
Perhaps some of the commenters above whistling at this latest warm month and pointing out the post-Nino temps have remained mostly higher the pre-Nino – remember such commentary from last year and are sticking to those who were convinced it would all get suddenly cooler a few months on from the el Nino.
Of course, a few months here and there, hot and cold, mean nothing in the big picture. But people seem to get energised by them, even our host.
Perhaps mpainter is lurking amongst us right now, using a different name. It makes sense that he would have to start over after making that claim.
BARRY -Here is what I am looking for if cooling does occur.
Lower overall sea surface temperatures due to less UV light , and a slightly higher albedo due to an increase in global cloud,snow,ice cover, a more meridional atmospheric circulation, and an increase in major volcanic activity.
If these things occur while solar is very low my confidence will increase.
Salvatore – everything you ever talk about falls under the domain of natural variability.
So it can say absolutely nothing about AGW. Or CO2’s radiative forcing.
Do you really not understand this??
barry…”A very common theme was skeptics saying that a la Nina would surely follow, and that the pause would resume”.
A La Nina surely will follow and the pause will likely not resume. In fact, there’s no evidence it is a pause.
There is definitely something afoot since Feb 2016 but no one knows what it is about. Blaming it on anthropogenic warming is plain stupid. Even Trenberth admitted as far back as the 2009 Climategate emails that the warming had stopped and it was a travesty that no one knew why.
Trenberth blamed it at first on the lack of instrumentation with the sensitivity to tease an anthropogenic background signal from the ENSO-based warming. Then he made the absurd claim that the missing warming must be hiding in the oceans. Since then, NOAA has fudged that alleged warming using smoke and mirrors and you alarmists have lined up to be spoon fed that pseudo-science.
It’s about time you blatant alarmists got off your high horses and began discussing the science rather than regurgitating outright crap from the likes of realclimate and skepticalscience.
There was a 0.2C bump in global temps in 1977 that was termed ‘The Great Pacific Climate Shift’. It was later identified as the Pacific Decadal Oscillation. No one knew that the oceans could play with global temps like that. No one can prove the oceans are not behind the current spate of warming.
If it is the oceans, we know they have to cool eventually. There is still no objective proof whatsoever that anthropogenic CO2 is behind this. The sheer lack of it makes that abundantly clear.
Another point that is abundantly clear is what John Christy of UAH has claimed. The climate is far too complex for anyone to understand at this point.
I might add that some scientists were lined up to retroactively erase the 0.2C warming of 1977 as an error. Since then, NOAA, NASA GISS, and Had.crut have been playing that game of examining the historical record and amending it to what makes sense to them.
That is scientific misconduct and they should all be in jail for it.
Eventually you have to sit back and smile at the cavalcade of broken memes.
barry…”Eventually you have to sit back and smile at the cavalcade of broken memes”.
Is that your normal reaction to leading scientific organizations pulling the wool over your eyes? Speaking of wool, don’t you have some sheep to sheer?
It’s my normal reaction to a litany of nonsense after many postings on blogs of such nonsense from the same person.
Gordon Robertson says:
“There is definitely something afoot since Feb 2016 but no one knows what it is about.”
A year and a half??
It’s called natural variation. CO2 is causing atmospheric warming of about 0.02 C/yr.
So larger fluctuations are due to natural variability.
Salvatore,
You are looking to see summertime temps in 2018 falling below the UAH 30-year mean (1981-2010).
I have your post on this bookmarked.
It COULD happen – if we get a decent La Nina, or if whatever random climatic event that pushed us to 0.27 above the trend acts the opposite way in a particular month. Make sure he understands that we are only stating that any such event will not be sustained.
Yeah, it’s possible, and not for the reasons Salvatore states. But I asked him to give a prediction that was temporally bound and that he would hold to to test his theory. This was his best shot.
I’m interested in seeing his take should his prediction fail. As he keep blaming things for failed predictions, and I’ve pushed him to stick to this no matter what, further excuses would tip the scales on my patience and I’ll join David Appell in reminding him of past failures.
CORRECT
A reminder – TEN months remaining to get your SUSTAINED and ENSO NEUTRAL reduction to baseline anomalies. That would be -0.2 to -0.4 in the case of a La Nina, sear the lower end so that it is distinguishable from random noise.
sear = near
Salvatore Del Prete on October 2, 2017 at 4:06 PM / October 3, 2017 at 4:55 AM
What is funny is the large difference between weatherbell +.28c and Dr. Spencers data +.54c
It is crazy. This is a very big difference and should not be.
Maybe I can manage to calm you down a bit, Salvatore!
Firstly: where did you obtain their data for Sep 2017? You should use only this page:
http://models.weatherbell.com/climate/cfsr_monthly.php
As you easily can see, the global anomaly for this month isn’t available there until today October 4, 2017.
Secondly: why do you think such a difference ‘should not be’ ?
Maybe you only look at the most recent months, and do not know exactly how much the datasets in fact differ all the time.
The greatest differences between UAH and Weatherbell anomalies since 1979 for example are
– min: -0.55 C
– max: +0.41 C
Look at the graph below:
http://fs5.directupload.net/images/171004/xb6qexgg.jpg
and the yellow plot tells you that though having very similar trends (0.13 vs. 0.14 C / decade), UAH6.0 and Weatherbell have as many differences as they have in common.
Salvatore, I am afraid you are running into big disappointment…
The greatest differences between UAH and Weatherbell anomalies since 1979 for example are
min: -0.55 C
max: +0.41 C
I don’t quite understand this. Any difference between them would be a positive number.
Unless you’re saying something like, “UAH has been colder than Weatherbell by this amount, and warmer by this amount.”
Where did you get the Weatherbell (NOAA reanalsis) data?
barry on October 4, 2017 at 4:35 PM
I dont quite understand this. Any difference between them would be a positive number.
barry, when I build, for every month in two time series, the differences between the two, there will be negative and positive numbers…
And the least difference coming from the subtraction
UAH(month_i) – WeatherBELL(month_i) is -0.55, whereas the biggest one is +0.41; what else could I tell you?
Where did you get the Weatherbell (NOAA reanalysis) data?
That was a funny little piece of work, as this data I couldn’t quickly find within the public part of Maue’s site.
Thus te only way to immediately get it without registering was to take, some weeks ago, the value shown by
http://models.weatherbell.com/climate/cfsr_monthly.php
for every month in every year. Duuuh.
Nice info Bindidon. Thanks.
Why are they so different on a month to month basis ?
Excellent work , I appreciate this.
Thank you very much Salvatore, I lacked the time for a meaningful answer to your question above but I don’t forget it.
Thus te only way to immediately get it without registering was to take, some weeks ago, the value shown by
http://models.weatherbell.com/climate/cfsr_monthly.php
for every month in every year. Duuuh.
That’s a lot of piecemeal effort. Not many here would be that diligent. Good job.
I see what you are saying they differ more then I thought.
Yes, they’re measuring different things in different ways. Month to month variation may differ significantly, long-term trends not so much.
YES
Different baselines.
Actually, they’re the same in this case – 1981-2010.
This is a Weatherbell anomaly map. Note the bottom of the graph for the baseline.
http://models.weatherbell.com/climate/ncep_cfsr_globe_t2m_week_anom.png
Data is from NCEP CFSv2 reanalysis product.
I think all the data sets (from the Left and the Right) are lying. Both sides are manipulating the data for political gain. I really could care less if the planet is getting hotter or cooler. One thing that doesn’t lie is the images from snow/ice lines on mountain ranges. They are all basically receding. Compare a picture of a snow capped mountain range from 1940 to now. Nearly all the world’s mountains are losing snow and ice. Look at the Alps, Montana, Canadian Rockies, the Andes…… That doesn’t lie-
You are obviously right, SPQR.
– https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Retreat_of_glaciers_since_1850
– https://www.epa.gov/climate-indicators/climate-change-indicators-glaciers
-etc etc etc
But what does that have to do with left/right?
You would wonder upon a look at how many french socialists or communists are climate ultraskeptics. And conversely I guess that many persons engaged in the climate change discussion in the AGW direction are politically very conservative.
Yes, we recovering from the Little Ice age, some have predicted that soon [decades] all glacial ice which was created in the temperate zone during LIA will have melted. This was said couple decades ago, and have not seen it revisited [I am not aware of anyone more recently making the claim that it has happened or about to happen].
Though it seems to me that the sea level lowered during LIA has been recovered.
gbaikie
Melting from the LIA should have slowed down or stopped by now. Instead, just the opposite.
snape…”Melting from the LIA should have slowed down or stopped by now”.
According to Syun Akasofu, re-warming from the LIA should occur at about 0.5C/century.
Why do you claim it’s just the opposite? There has been little or no warming since 1979 according to UAH and definitely none from 1998 – 2015. The current warming could be, and is most likely, transient in nature.
Syun Akasofu – another NON-climatologist associate of the Heartland Institute. How is that non-correlation between smoking and lung cancer / heart disease coming along?
Gordon Robertson says:
“According to Syun Akasofu, re-warming from the LIA should occur at about 0.5C/century.”
Why?
Caused by what?
Well I heard a bit about about some glaciers advancing, but this is to be expected and normal. Why do think the glaciers built up during LIA won’t melt?
Why do you assume melting glaciers is occurring because of some supposed ‘rebound’ from the LIA. Does global temperature have some static mean around which it oscillates, like a yo-yo? Is that the idea?
Why are glacier advances “expected and normal?”
–barry says:
October 5, 2017 at 5:52 PM
Why do you assume melting glaciers is occurring because of some supposed rebound from the LIA. Does global temperature have some static mean around which it oscillates, like a yo-yo? Is that the idea?–
There are two different things I would point out- my ideas and other peoples idea’s. The prediction that glacial ice formed during LIA would melt in the future, wasn’t my idea or prediction.
Though I do tend to agree, that at some point in the future the glaciers formed in a colder world would melt in a warmer world.
Or at least it seems like the better odds.
Though one could also get other glaciers forming in this warmer world, but point is it seems the ones from the colder period would tend to disappear [or they wouldn’t have formed in that colder world, but rather would have formed long before this cooler period].
–David Appell says:
October 5, 2017 at 8:23 PM
Why are glacier advances expected and normal?–
Because we are living in a icebox climate.
gbaikie says:
“Why are glacier advances expected and normal?
Because we are living in a icebox climate.”
Glaciers would advance if the surface was cooling — right?
But the surface isn’t cooling, right?
And, the data show, globally glaciers aren’t advancing.
Which is not surprising.
Begging the question – when is the “rebound” out of the LIA supposed to stop?
I don’t think skeptics would have an answer to that, because they don’t have a mechanism explaining the “rebound.”
barry…”Begging the question when is the rebound out of the LIA supposed to stop?”
Akasofu claimed 0.5C/century. The LIA ended circa 1850, which is ironically the year the IPCC now use to base their AGW propaganda. Temps during the LIA were claimed to be 1 to 2C below normal.
By the end of the LIA in 1850, it was likely already warming so this could turn into a calculus problem. As a ballpark figure, if you have 1 C to recover, a maximal date of ending of the rewarming, according to Akasofu, ‘COULD’ be 2050. If it was up to 2C, who knows?
I know, I know, it sounds like I’m covering all the bases. I really don’t know, I am just highly skeptical that a gas making up 0.04% of the atmosphere could produce catastrophic warming.
barry, the answer is, and youre not going to like it, “natural variation”.
(See, I said you wouldn’t like it.)
Warming to 2050?
This would put the global temp definitely higher than the MWP, and much higher than temps just prior to the LIA.
So the “rebound” would be to a new high for the last 2000 years at least. Interesting.
g*e*r*a*n,
You’re right. Nothingburgers have no taste.
— barry says:
October 4, 2017 at 4:40 PM
Begging the question when is the rebound out of the LIA supposed to stop?
I dont think skeptics would have an answer to that, because they dont have a mechanism explaining the rebound.–
I don’t think anyone, understands the mechanism for why LIA cooled.
There are things to point to.
During our interglacial period, we have had centuries of warming and cooling.
There were very large volcanic eruption during LIA.
And there was a sun which had low sunspots for a long period.
And there is a constant rise of sea level if the time scale is thousands of years.
There also a slight cooling over time scale of thousands years, starting something like 6000 years ago. Or I believe around time the Sahara desert became a desert rather than a grassland.
There were very large volcanic eruption during LIA.
gbaikie, I can’t imagine you placing LIA’s start so early.
It is very probable that the end of MWP was the probably hugest eruption of the last 1500 years: Mt Rinjani in 1257 (VEI 7).
Following that major event (only VEI 5-6 events are listed):
Quilotoa: 1280, (VEI) 6
Kuwae: 1452, 6+
Bardarbunga: 1477, 6
Agua de Pau: 1563, 5
Billy Mitchell: 1580, 6
Kelut: 1586, 5
Huaynaputina: 1600, 6
I read years ago an interesting paper
Abrupt onset of the Little Ice Age triggered by volcanism and sustained by sea-ice/ocean feedbacks
http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1029/2011GL050168/full
putting, through their analysis work, this unusually long sequence of very large volcanic eruptions in relation with a decrease of ocean heat content and increase of sea ice due to persistent lack of insolation.
This decrease of OHC was in their meaning LIA’s real origin: the aerosols produced by these eruptions were a by dimensions more important cooling factor than all solar minima put together.
And last not least: as you certainly know, the Maunder minimum began in… 1645.
I dont think anyone, understands the mechanism for why LIA cooled.
Which would make it impossible to say whether the so-called ‘rebound’ finished decades ago or is continuing.
The skeptical ‘analysis’ of post-LIA global temps completely lacks any physical basis.
— Bindidon says:
October 5, 2017 at 4:03 PM
There were very large volcanic eruption during LIA.
gbaikie, I cant imagine you placing LIAs start so early.–
I don’t place it early, though I know that some do place it early.
–Following that major event (only VEI 5-6 events are listed):
Quilotoa: 1280, (VEI) 6
Kuwae: 1452, 6+
Bardarbunga: 1477, 6
Agua de Pau: 1563, 5
Billy Mitchell: 1580, 6
Kelut: 1586, 5
Huaynaputina: 1600, 6 —
I suppose Quilotoa might be a reason some place it earlier, otherwise the ones listed wouldn’t be early.
But what I would consider important is the amount ejecta and where.
Because Tropics are the heat engine of the world and more specifically the tropical ocean is heat engine of the world and transparency of tropical ocean is important.
Now I have to look up these names:
-1280 Plinian eruption and caldera formation of Quilotoa volcano
One of the largest known eruptions on earth during the past 1000 years occurred around the year 1280 (radiocarbon dated). It followed a dormancy period of 14,000 years. The eruption emptied ca. 11 cubic km of magma during 4 eruptive phases. The first phase produced one of the northern Andes’ largest air-fall pumice and ash layer. The following phases generated large pyroclastic flows and lahars, which reached the Pacific Ocean.
The eruption was followed by the formation of the caldera and ended with the emplacement of a small lava dome.-
http://tinyurl.com/y9jqsk27
So even if most powerful recently I don’t know how many cubic km of rock to put into the sky. Maybe [wild guess] it put +1 cubic km water into atmosphere. Next, Kuwae:
http://volcano.oregonstate.edu/kuwae
Again, right location, but.. Next, Bardarbunga
Iceland, nope.
Agua de Pau I see nothing
Billy Mitchell:
“1580 plinian eruption and global climate effects
The explosive eruption of Billy Mitchell volcano around 1580 (uncorrected radiocarbon age, i.e. between 14801640) ranks as one of the largest in the world during the past 1000 years. It erupted about 14 cubic km of tephra (ca. 6 km3 of magma) and produced an ash layer over 300 km2. Ignimbrite from the eruption extends in a broad fan 20 km eastwards towards the Pacific Ocean. The eruption probably caused the formation of the present-day caldera.
The eruption has very likely caused a world-wide short-term cooling such as other large eruptions (e.g. Tambora in 1815, Krakatau in 1883, Katmai in 1912, Pinatubo in 1991). ”
I would agree about Tambora, ie: The explosion is estimated to have had a Volcanic Explosivity Index (VEI) of 7.[8] An estimated 41 cubic kilometres (9.8 cu mi) of pyroclastic trachyandesite were ejected, weighing about 10 billion tonnes. This has left a caldera measuring 67 kilometres (3.74.3 mi) across and 600700 metres (2,0002,300 ft) deep.[6] The density of fallen ash in Makassar was 636 kilograms per cubic metre (1,072 lb/cu yd).Before the explosion, Mount Tambora was about 4,300 metres (14,100 ft) high,[6] one of the tallest peaks in the Indonesian archipelago. After the explosion, it measured only 2,851 metres (9,354 ft), about two thirds of its previous height”
Kelut. Not seeing anything.
Huaynaputina:
1600 AD Plinian eruption of Huaynaputina volcano
The eruption of Huaynaputina volcano in 1600 AD was the largest historically recorded eruption in South America and one of the largest in the world during the past 2000 years. It erupted up to 30 cu km of tephra (or ca. 12 km3 of magma) (VEI 6) and is comparable to the Plinian eruption of Krakatau in 1883. The pumice and ash layer from the eruption covers an area of 360,000 km2.
Sounds possible and not one I was familiar with.
I had thinking of Tambora and few others not in your list.
Yes , theres a mechanism..ots tbe sun .. Distance from sun and solar activity are the man drivers of climate
Yes , theres a mechanism..ots tbe sun .. Distance from sun and solar activity are the man drivers of climate
A mechanism. Excellent!
Now we can get an idea of when the LIA ended.
Here is a graph of sunspot activity from 1910.
https://solarscience.msfc.nasa.gov/images/ssn_yearly.jpg
The Maunder Minimum ended about 1700, and sunspots peaked next about 1780, whereafter they held more or less steady.
So let’s allow a 40 year lag for global temps to catch up with the solar forcing, and we have the end of the LIA at around 1820.
There is one main orbital variation that changes Earth’s distance to the sun, but it is bi-polar.
Orbital eccentricity: the change in shape of the earth’s orbit from a perfect circle to an ellipse. The main cycle is about 100,000 years, so a 1000 year period will see little variation in an orbital eccentricity that itself has little variation. The extreme elipse changes the intensity of insolation falling on the Earth at a given season. So, if NH summer receives more solar radiation than usual when Earth is closer to the sun, winter will receive less. This also effects the length of the seaons by a few days from circle to extreme elipse.
The earth has been undergoing a change from the elipse to perfect circle for over 10,000 years. The MWP and LIA have both occurred during this change from one orbital extreme to the other, and so it appears that orbital eccentricity has little to no effect on global climate on this time scale.
I think we can rule out orbital variation causing and recovering LIA at the sub-millenial time scale. So that leaves us with solar intensity.
The mechanism that may have caused the LIA was back to normal in 1780 at the latest, and so the LIA ended about 1820 if solar variation is the mechanism.
That long-term solar graph again…
https://solarscience.msfc.nasa.gov/images/ssn_yearly.jpg
Hi Barry,
Indeed with orbital variations, we’ re talking about tens of thousands of years where they beome the dominant reason for climate change, being primarily responsible for glacial/interglacial cycles.
The effects of orbital changes over small time periods ( as your example) 1000 years would be minimal , but still not zero.
Within those shorter time periods, over say a few hundred years or so it is solar variability which becomes the primary driver of climate.
Their is high correlation between temps and SSN which is a good indicator of sunspot activity .. With both the intensity and period of high/low activity affecting warming and cooling trends.. Compare Maunder and Dalton mimimums with the level SST numbers in the seccond half of the twentieth centuries.
We are just now back at levels not seen since the early 20th century. It memains to be seen if we will experience a dalton or maunder type minimum…
If that should occur … Temps WILL fall and there will once again be skating on the Thames
Couple typos.. Should read SST good indicator of solar activity..
And to the HIGH levels in the latter half of 20th century
“Here is a graph of sunspot activity from 1910.”
Typo – the graph is from 1610.
Well gbaikie…
The ‘fact’ that you might not be familiar with some thing has few to do with the fact that it well happened.
https://de.wikipedia.org/wiki/Liste_gro%C3%9Fer_historischer_Vulkanausbr%C3%BCche
If you switch from there to the ->english version by clicking it at the left in the language list, you might enjoy a tiny difference.
gbaikie…”I am not aware of anyone more recently making the claim that it has happened or about to happen…”
Syun Akasofu, an astronomer famed for his work on the solar wind, has talked extensively about the LIA. He claims the IPCC erred by not including re-warming from the LIA in their claims of anthropogenic warming. He has talked about glaciers but I don’t recall him mentioning what you claim about all glaciers disappearing from temperate zones.
Are the Himalaya in a temperate zone? I don’t see glaciers disappearing there due to the extreme altitude. I have not seen any indication from climbers on Everest that the Khumbu glacier at the southern approach base camp is suffering, at 18,000 feet. Same for the Baltoro glacier at base of K2.
Are the Himalaya in a temperate zone? I dont see glaciers disappearing there due to the extreme altitude. I have not seen any indication from climbers on Everest that the Khumbu glacier at the southern approach base camp is suffering, at 18,000 feet. Same for the Baltoro glacier at base of K2.
The Himalaya are above tropic of Cancer. I don’t think anyone predicted all glaciers in Temperate Zone would disappear, rather build up of them during LIA would “disappear”.
I think some might have predicted that tropical glaciers might disappear at some point in time.
Yes, we recovering from the Little Ice age
As you have no physical mechanism to support that notion, it is only a notion. The ‘recovery’ could have stopped decades ago. You have no way of knowing.
gbaikie says:
“Yes, we recovering from the Little Ice age”
A recovery caused by what?
Or do you think climate does not need a cause in order to change?
spqr…”Compare a picture of a snow capped mountain range from 1940 to now”.
That’s ridiculous. We have 3500 foot mountains across from us in Vancouver, Canada and during a fresh snowfall the entire mountain is covered in snow. A day or two later it’s mostly gone.
Subjective analysis doesn’t prove anything.
This has nothing to do with right and left. There are political ideologies on either side of the argument. It’s mainly about alarmists and skeptics, the difference being that skepticism is a hallmark of science whereas alarmism is plain dumb.
Rubbish, it is happening to glaciers/snow-pack all around the world. And if you look at Mr. Spencer’s graph from 1979 to now, THERE IS AN UPWARD TREND. Granted, his data does show less warming; just not to the degree that most nuts on the left like Gore and his minions believe.
I am tired of this debate. Both sides are tampering with the data. Once again, I could care less if we are warming or cooling. I am not going to stop using my A/C or cutting my lawn.
Also, you missed my point. Examine permanent snow capped ranges from 1940 to now. The line (altitude) where they once had ice and snow is receding. Meaning that you have to ascend to a higher altitude to encounter it. It is happening all around the world. I was not talking about a bare range the occasionally gets snowed on.
Now just because I take note of that, it doesn’t mean that I am some left wing nut or in Al Gore’s camp (a man whom I cannot stand, and who I did not vote for in 2000). I am just making a point.
I think the whole hockey stick theory is BS, and I think the whole ‘we have been cooling for 18 years’ statement is BS.
Once again, if you look at Mr. Spencer’s data set from 1979 until now there is an undeniable upward trend. If you start the graph from 1998 until 2015, sure, it does look like there is a slight downward trend. But that is cherry picking the actual data. And even 2016 turned out to be warmer than 1998. It was in fact the warmest year as far as satellite data is concerned. Sorry, it was-
spqr…”It is happening all around the world”.
I pointed out that it’s not happening in the Himalaya, one of the most extensive mountain ranges in the world.
Furthermore, our mountains across the water in Vancouver have snow at the same altitudes each year. Our sea levels are not rising nor is global warming noticeable.
My point was that examining a photo of a mountain range in the 1940s tells us nothing. You’d have to specify the expected snow altitude on a specific date then compare it to today on the same date. Even at that, the inference is unscientific.
The way to do it is to assess all glaciers globally. 75% have been in retreat, and the mass balance of total global glaciers is negative.
spqr…”And if you look at Mr. Spencers graph from 1979 to now, THERE IS AN UPWARD TREND”.
So what? Can you prove the upward trend is related to anthropogenic warming? Have you noticed that half the trend is located below the baseline? Have you noticed the trend is flat from 1998 – 2015? If you see a trend over that period you are delusional. The IPCC did not see it nor did UAH.
Hopefully you are not yet another number cruncher who uses Excel without having a clue what the data means.
Yes, that is because you are starting the Graph from 1998. If you look at Spencer’s ENTIRE data set it is an upward trend.
I never said it is due ALONE TO ANTHROPOGENIC WARMING, those are your words not mine. I do not care what the cause is. It could be a natural cycle or a combination of other factors. I just stated that the trend is indeed upward. Please, do not make the mistake that I am some GW nut. I am not. Once again, if the earth cools or warms I don’t really care.
“Have you noticed that half the trend is located below the baseline?”
NO!! Really!! Do you understand what the baseline is?
SPQR says:
“I think the whole hockey stick theory is BS”
It doesn’t matter what you think — the laws of physics clearly imply that they require a hockey stick. And the math is trivial:
http://davidappell.blogspot.com/2015/08/the-thing-is-hockey-stick-isnt.html
http://davidappell.blogspot.com/2015/08/more-about-generating-hockey-sticks.html
http://davidappell.blogspot.com/2015/09/an-even-easier-way-to-get-hockey-stick.html
If you want to have a fine view on Earth’s climate at its surface, you simply go to WeatherBELL.
OK: it is not direct measurement but integrating reanalysis based on a huge data set. Maybe just this makes it so trustworthy, like Nick Stokes very similar surface temperature mix.
Here you perfectly see for example with the August 2017 global average, how weak El Nina actually is:
http://models.weatherbell.com/climate/ncep_cfsr_t2m_anom_082017.png
Perfect fit to JMA’s prediction for nov 17 till mar 18:
60% neutral, 40% Nina
Binny…”Maybe just this makes it so trustworthy, like Nick Stokes very similar surface temperature mix”.
Roy pointed out that it is the same data as ‘modeled’ (synthesized) NOAA data, which makes it unreliable.
I don’t expect you to get that since you claim your expertise is in computers. To those of us who have made our living based on hard physics, as in the electronics and electrical field, it is unforgivable to throw out 75% of your real data and synthesize the missing data in a climate model.
My understanding of computers is at least on par with yours, maybe even better. I have worked both sides of the fence, in computer software and hardware. I am aware of the limitations of programming and we used the term GIGO = garbage in, garbage out. Seems to fit climate models well.
Just a little hint to a troll behaving even more ridiculous than anyone of the trolls I ever saw posting at WUWT (!!!):
Roy Spencer regularly publishes graphs made by Ryan Maue. And both persons have all the science you thoroughly lack.
Any idea about what a compiler compiler might be, Robertson troll?
Why don’t you move to WUWT with all your nonsense?
– You would enjoy being there ‘entre bon amis’, e.g. the third viscount of Brenchley, or superb commenters a la ‘Latitude’;
– We would here get rid of an incredibly boring, stubborn person.
A dream, alas.
GIGO is something skeptics say when they don’t have any concrete ideas.
Did you have any concrete ideas to offer, barry?
Alarmist warmists ideas fall into the category of a ridiculously persistent El Dumbo, followed by an El Bimbo, with a continuously resilient La Nada, not to mention a smattering of El Dodo.
barry…”GIGO is something skeptics say when they dont have any concrete ideas”.
Still the same meaning: garbage in, garbage out. An apt description of a climate model.
The rats descend on this post to take up the offered crumbs.
it is unforgivable to throw out 75% of your real data
This lie again.
By a serial liar.
*How to help a skeptic understand the reality of AGW*
Step 1 (most difficult): prove the earth is warming.
Step 2: prove the warming is anthropogenic
Based on recent comments, it appears many skeptics on this blog have finally made it past step 1. Congratulations are in order!
SIS, to make the big time in climate comedy, you’re going to have to do a lot better than that. It just looks like you’re coloring with crayons.
Learn to throw in some pseudoscience. I know, a lot has already been used, but make up something. That’s what climate comedy is all about–originality. You can’t use things like “the Earth is heating the Sun”. That’s already been exploited. Try to find some other Laws of Physics to violate. That’s when it really gets funny.
Best of luck.
g*e*r*a*n
I never thought I’d say this, but, welcome to the “warmists” club!
(The anthropogenic part will come eventually.)
Sorry sis, you’re still not there. Think of something that doesn’t make you sound like a 12-year-old.
(BTW, there may be one or two out there that do not know your old screen name was “snake”, aka “snape”. I won’t tell anyone.)
I went back and read a few of Snape’s comments. A very bright fellow.
g*e*r*a*n,
It appears you haven’t yet come across Snape expounding on his grand “traffic jam analogy” of the “anthropogenic part” of global warming?
A shame. It’s a true apogee of human endeavour, a work of stupefying genius.
When this person speaks, you should listen. He’s no 12-year-old, I’ll say! He’s at the very least 13 or 14 …
barry…”it is unforgivable to throw out 75% of your real data …This lie again. …By a serial liar”.
barry insists on making a fool of himself.
From Nov 13, 2015…
https://web.archive.org/web/20151113041214/http://www.noaa.gov:80/features/02_monitoring/weather_stations.html
direct quotes from NOAA…”Why is NOAA using fewer weather stations to measure surface temperature around the globe from 6,000 to less than 1,500?”
“The 1,500 real-time stations that we rely on today are in locations where NOAA scientists can access information on the 8th of each month”.
Are you really that stupid, barry? NOAA admits on their own site to using less than 1500 stations from a global surface database of 6000 station and 1500/6000 = 25%. Since they use less than 1500 stations it means NOAA has dropped over 75% of their database. They synthesize the missing 75% in a climate model using less than 1500 of the stations in an statistical algorithm.
However, barry goes merrily on supporting this chicanery by apologizing for them and trying to obfuscate the obvious by braying about something in the 1990s.
That same site notes:
“Q. Is there any question that surface temperatures in the United States have been rising rapidly during the last 50 years?
No. Even if NOAA did not have weather observing stations across the United States, the impacts of the warming are clear and present. For example, lake and river ice is melting earlier in the spring and forming later in the fall. Plants are blooming earlier in the spring. Mountain glaciers are melting. Coastal temperatures are rising. A multitude of species of birds, fish, mammals and plants are extending their ranges northward and, in mountainous areas, uphill toward cooler areas.”
An additional sentence should be added:
And alarmists are wetting their pants more frequently.
Why shouldn’t people be alarmed about global temperature rise of 1 C? With 2 C probably likely?
Also, it should be noted that:
1500 stations are on land.
70% of the globe is ocean.
The “25%” reduction only applies to 30% of the globe.
i.e. a reduction in GLOBAL coverage of only 7.5%
Correction.
The “75%” reduction applies to 30%.
The reduction in GLOBAL coverage is only 22.5%
However, barry goes merrily on supporting this chicanery by apologizing for them and trying to obfuscate the obvious by braying about something in the 1990s.
That “something” in the 1990s was the amassing of thousands of weather stations’ data by hand that didn’t report in real time, and that don’t report in real time. The thousands of stations that NOAA are not able to update every month.
It’s the fact that proves your lie is a lie.
Don’t plead ignorance. You’ve obviously read the rebuttal to your lie. Thanks for admitting that, finally. And that you keep on lying when you know better.
AGW Haiku:
Carbon dioxide
Blankets the Earth in repose
Yet only a dream
Good effort.
Keep working at it and leave science to the big boys.
Doctor No-Nothing
Alchemy his frequent spiel
Science forgotten
No-Nothing means Something
How true – no science will ever pass this guy’s lips.
I was thinking about my university undergrad course in kinematics and dynamics, solving increasingly complex problems, while you were playing video games in your mama’s basement.
Judging by your comments I assume you failed.
And then took up Haiku and blogging.
Not much money in that is there?
So you’re a little boy who’s still at Uni doing first year basic kinematics. I hereby symbolically pat you on the head and invite you back after you’ve learned the physics required to understand the science of climate change.
Try this simple problem to test out your understanding of the basic physics you are learning:
Assume no gravity and no air resistance. Assume any collisions are perfectly elastic, and occur head-on so that there are no angular deflections.
There is a train moving towards me at 50 m/s.
I have a basketball and a table tennis ball.
Assume mass of train >> mass of basketball >> mass of tt ball
I throw the basketball at the train at a speed of 30 m/s.
Some time later I throw the table tennis ball in the same direction at 20 m/s, so that it collides with the basketball AFTER it has rebounded from the train.
At what speed will the table tennis ball return to me?
And please – no answers from anyone else.
The jet stream from north will now attack eastern Canada.
https://www.facebook.com/Sunclimate-719393721599910/
The lying Gordon Robertson provides a quote and a link to try and corroborate his claim that NOAA deliberately shedded 75% of weather stations.
Even the link he provides gives a clue – it’s the parts Gordon never quotes. Here’s a fuller version.
The physical number of weather stations has shrunk as modern technology improved and some of the older outposts were no longer accessible in real time.
However, over time, the data record for surface temperatures has actually grown, thanks to the digitization of historical books and logs, as well as international data contributions. The 1,500 real-time stations that we rely on today are in locations where NOAA scientists can access information on the 8th of each month.
NOAA added millions of data from thousands of historical weather station records in the 1990s. Most of these had to be keyed by hand.
As Gordon’s link syas, they had at the time 1500 stations that reported in near real-time, in the format required by NOAA’s automatic collation network.
When the project ended in the 1990s amassing historical weather station data, 1500 stations were still reporting on the automated stream.
Contrary to the liar’s repeated lies, NOAA added weather station data, and did not “slash” thousands of stations.
Here’s the 1997 paper that describes what happens – a paper Gordon the liar has either never read, or has read but continues his lie even after reading the source.
http://tinyurl.com/gp6z3qp
I can put up with his usual nonsense in fairly good humour, but this filthy lying, when he has been shown the truth so many times, is intolerable.
The large number of stations in the mid80s and 90s came from NOAA laboriously hand-keying weather station data over a number of years.
NOAA did exactly the opposite to what Gordon claims, which makes his disgusting lying all the worse.
[reformatted]
The lying Gordon Robertson provides a quote and a link to try and corroborate his claim that NOAA deliberately shedded 75% of weather stations.
Even the link he provides gives a clue its the parts Gordon never quotes. Heres a fuller version.
The physical number of weather stations has shrunk as modern technology improved and some of the older outposts were no longer accessible in real time.
However, over time, the data record for surface temperatures has actually grown, thanks to the digitization of historical books and logs, as well as international data contributions. The 1,500 real-time stations that we rely on today are in locations where NOAA scientists can access information on the 8th of each month.
NOAA added millions of data from thousands of historical weather station records in the 1990s. Most of these had to be keyed by hand.
As Gordons link says, they had at the time 1500 stations that reported in near real-time, in the format required by NOAAs automatic collation network.
When the project ended in the 1990s amassing historical weather station data, 1500 stations were still reporting on the automated stream.
Contrary to the liars repeated lies, NOAA added weather station data, and did not “slash” thousands of stations.
Heres the 1997 paper that describes what happens a paper Gordon the liar has either never read, or has read but continues his lie even after reading the source.
http://tinyurl.com/gp6z3qp
I can put up with his usual nonsense in fairly good humour, but this filthy lying, when he has been shown the truth so many times, is intolerable.
The large number of stations in the mid80s and 90s came from NOAA laboriously hand-keying weather station data over a number of years.
NOAA did exactly the opposite to what Gordon claims, which makes his disgusting lying all the worse.
Here’s the relevant quote from the paper describing the additional data and what they had left once the projects ended.
Thirty-one different sources contributed temperature data to GHCN. Many of these were acquired through second-hand contacts and some were digitized by special projects that have now ended. Therefore, not all GHCN stations will be able to be updated on a regular basis. Of the 31 sources, we are able to perform regular monthly updates with only three of them.
Those are the facts that the Robertson has never acknowledged. Despite being shown this a dozen times.
He will be shown them again, whenever he repeats his lies.
barry…”Heres the relevant quote from the paper describing the additional data and what they had left once the projects ended”.
The relevant quote is the one I posted, that NOAA has slashed 70% of its reporting global stations. Naturally, in his denial, barry has produced the reddest of red-herring arguments.
Red Herring. … the red herring is a deliberate diversion of attention with the intention of trying to abandon the original argument.
NO.
NOAA had 1500 weather stations that reported weather data in the format that automated the updating each month.
Then NOAA added historical data manually that was not part of the automated stream. This is how they got 7,000 weather station data.
When the project ended, they had 1500 weather stations in the automated stream as before that reported monthly.
NOAA did not deliberately cut thousands of weather stations. They added data retrospectively.
Stop lying.
Exactly barry, well done.
Is the Robertson troll really a liar, or is he simply dumb, unable to carefully read longer documents?
Anyway: whichever alternative applies, plays no role; any of the two disqualifies him for scientific contribution.
These facts have been posted specifically in reply to his comments many times over the past year and more. Nearly every time, he disappears from the comment stream. The first few times I gave him the benefit of the doubt.
On a couple of occasions he has replied beneath, only to talk about something else. He’s seen this. He keeps lying.
I don’t bandy strong words lightly. I’d rather not. It engenders defensiveness and posturing and entrenches opposition.
But on this specific point I’ve had enough. I draw a line. I don’t have much passion for the future of the globe. I care about scientific integrity. I cannot stand lies.
Handily, he quotes above what I posted about later.
barry goes merrily on supporting this chicanery by apologizing for them and trying to obfuscate the obvious by braying about something in the 1990s.
He’s read the rebuttal previously. I don’t care if he lies to himself or to us. He lies.
Barry, of course he, like many others here, lie simply to amuse themselves.
Don’t try and get them to recant, they never ever do.
It is not worth getting upset over these people. Better is to simply point out the worst of their deceptions and, if possible, have a bit of sadistic fun skewering them.
I’ve been doing it for ages whenever I have spare time.
You can call me sadistic but I am enjoying their ever more frantic thrashings as things get hotter and the rest of the world leaves them behind.
dr no…”Barry, of course he, like many others here, lie simply to amuse themselves”.
Another brithering idiot, in deep denial. Can you read and comprehend??? NOAA admitted they had slashed over 70% of their surface stations.
It’s corroborated here in exacting detail.
https://chiefio.wordpress.com/gistemp/
Chiefio also said:
“While the spin put on my position has tended to say there is active intentional removal of thermometers for malicious effect; I have gone out of my way to point out that I can not know any persons intent, only the result.”
YOU, Robertson, are putting spin on Chiefio’s position.
Chiefio does not know about the history of adding historical station data. You do. You’ve been told many times. Stop spinning. Stop lying.
My, my, my! All these accusations, name-calling, and consternation because the data isn’t matching the pseudoscience.
It’s hilarious.
How many Warmists have actually looked into the “forcing” of CO2? How many know the origin of this bogus concept?
None?
They just blindly and obediently swallow the spew from the cult leaders.
It’s amazing. (And hilarious.)
g*r…”My, my, my! All these accusations, name-calling, and consternation because the data isnt matching the pseudoscience”.
Far more than that. The alarmists are in deep denial that NOAA actually admitted to slashing over 70% of global surface database.
Maybe I missed something. Can you see the following at this link?
https://web.archive.org/web/20130201082455/http://www.noaa.gov/features/02_monitoring/weather_stations.html
“Why is NOAA using fewer weather stations to measure surface temperature around the globe from 6,000 to less than 1,500?”
And does the URL not read http://www.noaa.gov???
To the person who believe assembling computer hardware makes him a Physics professional:
“All this name-calling”??
You mean “blithering idiot”?? Is that the name-calling you are referring to?
Nothing in the NOAA article says the weather station data was deliberately removed. That’s your lying spin. The article does say that data was added. THAT’s the truth. You know the true story. You’ve been given the history. You continually lie.
My, my, my! All these accusations, name-calling, and consternation because the data isnt matching the pseudoscience.
I don’t care about any data matching here.
Robertson is lying that NOAA “deliberately” slashed thousands of weather stations. Period.
barry…”Handily, he quotes above what I posted about later”.
I repeat, only a blithering idiot would deny what NOAA admitted in print. It does not matter how you try to obfuscate the matter, NOAA admitted to slashing over 70% of their global surface stations. I sent you the link and you still deny it.
You seem to think you can explain that away with some bafflegab about them actually increasing the number of stations in the 1990s. Chiefio has reported that NOAA has slashed nearly 90% of their stations since the 1990’s.
You have strengthened my case that alarmists are blithering idiots who accept any crap they are told by authority figures.
I sent you the link and you still deny it.
I quoted the article. There is no mention of deliberate removal. This is your lying spin. You have ben told how data was added retrospectively that was not part of the automated stream. Data from old weather station records that was keyed in by hand because it was not in the electronica format that allowed NOAA to get it every month. A project that ended in the late 1990s.
They started with 1500 stations reporting. They spent a few years collating masses of extra data. When they had keyed that data in to their records, they were left with 1500 automated updates, as before.
They didn’t slash data, you liar. They added some retrospectively.
The truth is the opposite of your lying lies.
Wow. I’ve seen denial from GR, and outright lies, but this takes the cake.
barry…”The lying Gordon Robertson provides a quote and a link to try and corroborate his claim that NOAA deliberately shedded 75% of weather stations”.
I posted a direct quote from NOAA where they admit to doing that. Only a blithering idiot would be in denial about that.
NOAA notes:
“Scientists use that data, as well as ocean temperature data collected by a constantly expanding number of buoys and ships 71 percent of the world is covered by oceans, after all to determine the global temperature record.”
Only a blithering idiot would claim that the reduction of land stations equates to a the same reduction in global coverage.
dr no…”Only a blithering idiot would claim that the reduction of land stations equates to a the same reduction in global coverage”.
What are you nattering about???
NOAA cuts land stations by over 75%, synthesizes the slashed data in a climate model using less than 1500 of the stations, as they admitted on the NOAA site, and you claim that does not affect the global average to the same degree?
Chiefio has given detailed evidence that NOAA slashed the stations so they could delete colder stations and emphasize the warming from the warmer stations. In some cases, they synthesized data for cities high in the Andes using stations in a radius up to 1200 miles apart and at a much lower altitude giving those cities a much warmer temperature due to that kind of averaging.
It’s blatant cheating to synthesize a temperature for a high altitude, colder city using data from surrounding areas at much lower altitudes and warmer temperatures.
Why not just use the real data reported for that city? Do you really need to have an answer spelled out for you? They are alarmist cheaters.
I posted a direct quote from NOAA where they admit to doing that. Only a blithering idiot would be in denial about that.
Quote the exact part where it is said that the weather station data was deliberately culled.
Deliberately. Quote that, you liar.
barry…”Quote the exact part where it is said that the weather station data was deliberately culled”.
Now you are admitting it was culled and you are indulging in a semantics argument as to whether the culling was deliberate or not.
Get over yourself for cripes sake.
Now that you have finally admitted it was culled can we get on with the next part, where NOAA uses the data from less than 1500 stations to synthesize the culled data?
That’s what NOAA does and that’s why they need to provide a confidence level. You still have not addressed the question as to why they declared 2014 as the hottest year ever based on a 48% confidence level. GISS has used confidence levels in the 30 percentile range.
The 48% is NOT a “confidence level”. It is a straight probability.
There are three runners A, B and C in a race. Runners A and B are each given a 26% chance of winning. Who is the most likely winner?
Now you are admitting it was culled
NO. I am paraphrasing YOUR lie and asking you to corroborate it.
and you are indulging in a semantics argument as to whether the culling was deliberate or not
Semantics? You have repeatedly said “slashed” and “cut.” YOU have said the drop out of station numbers was from deliberate deletion.
This is the lie.
Are you now qualifying your remarks? Then do so straightforwardly.
You still have not addressed the question as to why they declared 2014 as the hottest year ever based on a 48% confidence level.
Indeed I have.
But I won’t do that until you clearly admit that NOAA did not deliberately “slash” thousands of weather station data.
If you can describe what actually happened accurately, then I will link you to my discussion of 2014, 48% likelihood hottest year. Hell, I’ll even discuss that with you here.
But not till we correct the spin on station drop out.
I’m curious as to why the 13 month average has not been updated over the past 2 or 3 months. The data shows a slight upturn over the past two months.
A 13-month average is centred on the middle month – month 7. Therefore the first 6 and last 6 months of the record can’t be compassed by the red 13-month average line.
EG, if we start the record in Jan 1979, then you average the 13 months Jan 1979 to Jan 1980, and the average is located at July 1979. Move forward a month, averaging Feb to Feb, and the next point is at August 1979.
I know how it is calculated. I am pointing out that it has not been updated in this month’s plot nor in the plot for last month. You can download the data and plot it out for yourself if you like. There is a slight upturn in the 13-month average over the past two months, i.e. the centered average from 8 and 7 months ago.
Including those months would show that we have pulled up after the post-El Nino decline about 0.15 to 0.2 degrees above the pre-El Nino figures. And we couldn’t have people seeing that, now could we? Roy?
Des says, October 5, 2017 at 8:30 AM:
Because that would indicate what, Des?
It would indicate that “we have pulled up after the post-El Nino decline about 0.15 to 0.2 degrees above the pre-El Nino figures”. Duh
Des says, October 5, 2017 at 6:01 PM:
And “we” couldn’t have people seeing that, because …?
You believe you’re a smart person … fill in the blanks yourself.
And a tip … when there are only two people in a thread, there is no need to keep quoting the other person. I KNOW what I said.
Des says, October 6, 2017 at 5:09 AM:
Hehe. No, Des. I want to hear YOUR answer. And “we” couldn’t have people seeing that, because …?
chad…”Im curious as to why the 13 month average has not been updated over the past 2 or 3 months”.
Waiting for the cooling which is sure to follow soon. No point wasting good red ink.
Any cooling that may or may not occur in the future, will not change the 13-month centered averages for 7 and 8 months ago. As soon as Roy updates this curve in future months, the uptick will appear.
Exactly! Poor, foolish GR imagines that the hidden upticks will be flattened by lower values over the coming months.
Actually, the averages will indeed probably drop in the next few months. The next three monthly anomalies to drop off the back of the 13-month average are 0.45, 0.42 and 0.46. Despite this month’s anomaly, it is extremely unlikely we will duplicate those figures in the next three months. I would say that the 13-month average still has about another 0.1 degrees to fall over the next year, and that is assuming no La Nina conditions.
Waiting for the cooling which is sure to follow soon. No point wasting good red ink.
While I doubt that Roy is so craven as to “hide the incline,” your defense of such a tactic is pathetic.
A repost (with some editing) of mine that is buried amongst earlier posts:
Here is a scatter plot where each dot represents one El Nino or La Nina event:
https://drive.google.com/file/d/0B2v56RP5XU7Gb081dGd4Y051S2c/view?usp=sharing
Apologies for forgetting to label the axes. The horizontal axis is ONI and the vertical axis is the detrended UAH anomaly.
The ONI reading is the average of the THREE highest (or lowest) consecutive monthly ONI readings during any one ENSO event. The UAI reading is the highest (or lowest) monthly value of the DETRENDED UAI during each ENSO event.
With a good chance of a coming La Nina, it gives an idea of the drop in UAI we can expect from a La Nina event, a drop which would have to be EXCEEDED for Salvatore Del Freeze to have any chance of claiming a cooling climate.
As I have taken the max (min) values for both ONI and UAH during any ENSO event, which generally do not come from the same month, the effect of the lag is implicitly included.
In the El Nino graph, the lowest dot represents Pinatubo, and the third dot from the right represents El Chichon. So they can be excluded to establish any trend.
This month’s anomaly is not indicative of the trend. The trend anomaly is +0.27, and should be +0.28 by the time any La Nina begins. The scatter graph shows that, for all but the very weakest La Ninas, the drop in global anomalies during La Nina can be anywhere between 0.18 and 0.43, with little correlation between that drop and the strength of the La Nina. So we would expect a minimum TRENDED anomaly of between -0.15 and +0.10. We would need to drop below -0.15 before anyone can claim that we are having any cooling out of the ordinary.
Good work Des.
+1
des…”A repost (with some editing) of mine that is buried amongst earlier posts:”
Let’s get this straight, you post an amateur graph in which you ‘forgot’ to mark the axes, and you want us to take it seriously, especially when you de-trended the UAH data yourself?
Move along, folks, nothing of interest here.
Of course, bindiot applauds you.
Facts hurt, don’t they?
Robertson isn’t capable of plotting a graph, and takes an honest apology for forgetting to label the axes as his cue to spew scorn.
Here the same answer as in Roy Spencer’s previous thread:
Nun halten Sie doch endlich die Klappe, Robertson!
Why would you believe that I should have ANY difficulty detrending data? It is a VERY simple process, especially when you have Excel at your disposal. You really should quit showing off your lack of mathematical understanding.
It is hilarious how you dismiss any analysis without having a clue what it is you’re dismissing.
But more important is what caused the decline other then La Nina.
Is it lower sea surface temperatures overall and a slightly higher albedo?
Will it be this if the fall comes.
If so I will have more confidence.
Can you tell me which decline period you exactly mean, Salvatore?
I am talking about this decline if it comes.
What I am trying to say is La Nina does not factor into my cooling ,although it will cause cooling.
Here is what I am looking for to accompany the cooling if it comes that will give me confidence that I may be correct.
Factors with the cooling if it comes that will make me confident.
1. Very low solar activity
2. Overall lower sea surface temperatures on a global basis
3. A slight increase in albedo
a. due to an increase in global cloud coverage
b. due to an increase in global snow coverage, sea ice
c. due to a N.H more meridional atmospheric circulation
d. due to an increase in major volcanic activity.
Understood!
But be patient, as few of your parameters actually tend to behave as you wish.
If any drop in temperatures falls within this range, how will YOU determine that such a fall might have been caused by something else, other than mere conjecture and assertions?
Slavatore may get his predicted drop if Agung has a massive eruption in the next few months. It’s currently threatening to go off.
It would have to be VEI5 to have any effect on global temperatures. (Perhaps HIGH VEI4) The 1963 Agung eruption was VEI5, and was 120 years after the previous VEI5 eruption. Hopefully the fact that it is only 54 years this time will mean that not enough pressure has built up for the largest eruption. But who is to know what other difference there are this time.
One thing is certain – many deniers will claim that Agung has spewed out more CO2 than humans have by burning fossil fuels throughout our history. They won;t have any science to back this up.
Right, thanks.
Fossil fuels burned by man emit 100-200 times more CO2 than do volcanoes:
“Volcanic vs Anthropogenic Carbon Dioxide,” T Gerlach, EOS v92 n24, June 14, 2011.
http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1029/2011EO240001/full
http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1029/2011EO240001/epdf
https://news.agu.org/press-release/human-activities-emit-way-more-carbon-dioxide-than-do-volcanoes/
Apparently the Toba eruption 75000 years ago (the largest eruption of the past 2 million years) emitted about a year’s worth of anthropogenic CO2 (not that it had the opportunity to have any effect, given the vast amount of SO2 also released). Fortunately, we had one Toba, not 75000. Before that we have to back to the end-Permian eruption in the Siberian traps for their claim to be even remotely correct.
Skeptics who aren’t completely stupid know that major aerial volcanic eruptions temporary cool the globe.
Half right. Only equatorial eruptions tend to have a cooling effect. An eruption at higher latitudes would have to be absolutely massive to have the same effect. Assuming they are equatorial, they have to be powerful enough to send SO2 into the stratosphere – any lower than the stratosphere and it gets rained out. That generally means VEI5 or higher.
And yes, deniers definitely know this – hence their desire for greater volcanic activity to support their otherwise unsupported cooling hypothesis.
I didn’t know that latitude mattered, so I looked it up.
From what I gather, latitudinal differences are not well-known, but it is theorized that high-latitude volcanic emissions tend to be more localised, based on limited data.
“Half right,” seems to be over-certain. I’d have said, “probable,” or something the like.
Anyway, Agung is a tropical volcano.
I’ve done a lot of reading about this, and it is definitely a significant effect. There are no volcanoes below VEI7 that have had a measureable effect on GLOBAL climate. Ejected matter from high-latitude volcanoes generally can’t cross the equator.
There are no volcanoes below VEI7 that have had a measureable effect on GLOBAL climate
I understand the idea. How many high latitude major volcano eruptions support it? IOW, do they have much data to make a definitive assessment?
Salvatore Del Prete on October 5, 2017 at 5:32 AM
Why are they [UAH6.0 and WeatherBELL] so different on a month to month basis ?
1. As you know, UAH mesures temperatures in a tropospheric region way above surface, while WeatherBELL reanalyses temperatures directly at surface.
Roy Spencer communicated last year the 12-month absolute climatology vector for UAH, with an average value of about 264 K, i.e. -9 C, while all surface temperatures show a mean absolute value around 15 C.
According to a lapse rate of 6.5 C/km, that gives us an altitude of about 4 km. (Some people mean that in fact UAH measures way higher, as radiosondes measure at 4 km altitude higher temperatures than does UAH. I don’t share this meaning.)
Now my question to you, Salvatore: would you think that land temperatures measured at sea level must show identical to those measured at the surface too but 4 km higher, e.g. on a mountain? I guess no.
2. The other factor making the difference between UAH and WeatherBELL is the response time needed by the troposphere to react to surface events.
There is often a lag of up to 4-5 months. If the lag was identical everywhere, it would be simple to reduce the differences by offseting one of the two time series. But the lag differs everywhere.
Thus I’m sorry: it makes few sense to expect them to behave identical.
Bindidon
You’ve pointed out the lag time between surface and troposphere, but I don’t think Salvatore understands the very simple physics behind this.
If you put a large pot of cold water on a surface element, and turn it on, the element will quickly get very hot. The water in the pot, on the other hand, may take 10 – 20 minutes to boil. Turn off the heat, and the element quickly cools, but the water will stay warm for a long time.
During an el nino, a relatively small area of ocean surface gets warmer. The lower troposphere is huge in comparison, so it takes several months for such a small “element” to produce noticeable warming. Opposite for la nina.
Sir Isaac
I apologise, but… your pot explanation is not quite convincing.
If it was, then there would have been no lag differences between the 1997/98 and 2015/16 editions of Mr Nino…
Feel free to compare them!
Bindidon
The 1997/98 el nino was followed by a strong la nina, the 2015/16 wasn’t. This explains why the troposphere was warmer following the more recent event. What does that have to do with lag time? Are you sure they were much different?
If the Nino 3.4 region was +2.5 C for just one day, would you expect much of a bump in troposphere temperatures? It takes time, like it takes time for a stove to warm a pot of water. Isn’t this the lag we’re talking about?
Something to read:
http://journals.ametsoc.org/doi/pdf/10.1175/JCLI3514.1
I won’t have time to read it myself for a while.
Des.
Thanks for the article. There’s is a lot to go through but this Is in the introduction:
“The phase lag and amplitude of tropospheric temperature both increase as a specified ENSO SST forcing period increases……”
A takeaway would be that a short forcing period would be accociated with a short lag time and a small temperature increase. So a one day spike in SST would not produce a similar spike in the troposphere 5 months out. The lag time would be short.
I was dumb and forgot something. Once SST’s start decreasing after an el nino has peaked, the troposphere is still getting warmer. This delay is different than waiting for water to boil.
I’m thinking an el nino continues to add energy to the troposphere even as it weakens. This would produce the delay we see.
Hunch: the slower an el nino weakens, the longer the delay will be before the troposphere temperature peaks.
Sir Isaac Snapelton on October 5, 2017 at 7:04 PM
What does that have to do with lag time? Are you sure they were much different?
Yes. If you compare, peak against peak, NINO3+4 and UAH6.0 for the two periods, you see a lag of five months for 1997/98, and of only two months for 2015/16.
The comparison with the far more complex MEI engineered by Klaus Wolters is of course less simple. MEI had in 1997/98 a double bump, what you don’t see in the NINO3+4 record.
Bindidon
You’re right. Somehow I spaced that off. So my original comment about the heating element and pot…………does not hold water.
Bindidon
I’m still on board with the “rate of cooling” idea. If you’re correct, the 97/98 event continued to warm the atmosphere for five months after SST’s had begun to fall. If SST’s had fallen more rapidly after the peak of the 2015/16 event, the “continued warming” of the atmosphere would have been more short lived in comparison.
Your right I don’t know why I was thinking differently.
The correlation is pretty simple here….latent heat energy being released by melting ice keeps the summer temperatures in the arctic in check and the temperatures in the high arctic don’t get very much above freezing ever….right now you have a winter problem in the Arctic and that is because of two things….galactic cosmic rays carry star water and it interacts as water vapor in our atmosphere and the jet stream is out of whack and is more meridonal than zonal these days because of the weakening of both the sun and Earth’s magnetospheres. The north/south flow brings in more water vapor from temperate areas keeping the Arctic warmer than normal……It’s all natural and nothing to worry about very little of this is due to man…..just need a basic understanding of one of two things….science or history….history will tell you this is all cyclical as well
Melting ice ABSORBS heat. It does NOT release heat.
+1
It is sad to see someone who has spent time learning correct terminology thus giving the superficial appearance of someone who knows what they are talking about, but who has no idea about the science behind these words.
And there are plenty here who fall into that category.
So sad!
You clowns rant on Kingbum but proclaim [email protected]$$ things like:
1. The atmosphere is twice as powerful as the sun.
2. The GHE heats the earth and the sun. They are both warmer together!
3. Standing next to a block of ice will warm you up! How does your skin “know” not to absorb IR from the ice!!
Hilarious!
SGW
Still waiting for you to answer my physics question.
Despicable,
So predictable. I knew you would do that. Why would I waste my time taking orders from you? I’m glad you wasted time looking stuff up you don’t understand. It’s what you do.
SkepticGoneWild
All your points are not validated by things people have posted. You made them up on your own.
YOU:
”
1. The atmosphere is twice as powerful as the sun.
MY RESPONSE: The atmosphere has temperature when the Sun sets at night. The global energy balance graphs take this into consideration but obviously the thought process is too complex for you to comprehend.
2. The GHE heats the earth and the sun. They are both warmer together!
MY RESPONSE: No, the GHE allows a heated surface to reach a higher equilibrium temperature than a surface under identical conditions with no GHE. The Earth does not heat the Sun. The presence of the Earth in the Solar System will have two possible effects. A very tiny increase in temperature to give off more energy that is not going out because of the Earth, or a slight expansion that will increase surface area an allow the energy to be realeased.
3. Standing next to a block of ice will warm you up! How does your skin “know” not to absorb IR from the ice!!
MY RESPONSE: It will if you were standing to something colder than the ice, otherwise it will not. Your skin will absorb IR from all sources around it regardless of their temperature. You claim you studied physics and you are not aware of this? I linked you to textbooks stating this very thing. Why won’t you read the science?
SGW
Do what?? Given that I don’t make any of those claims, you can’t have been talking about me.
You’re avoiding my Physics question – I KNEW YOU WOULD DO THAT.
It’s the kind of problem a REAL physics student would love to do.
Rote learning gets you only so far in your understanding of science.
LMAO. I thought you clowns think IR is “heat”. Right? Ice gives off IR, which is heat according to you buffoons. The pseudoscience of the alarmist freaks is so entertaining. And [email protected]$$ gives this a +1. The guy who thinks the earth heats the sun.
IR is indeed not heat. I have not stated that it is nor thought it.
Do you enjoy your straw man arguments?
I have a question about this: if you drop some ice cubes into a bowl of warm water, energy in the water will be used to break the bonds that form the ice. This will cause the water to cool.
My question is, what happens to the energy used to break the ice bonds?
snape…”I have a question about this: if you drop some ice cubes into a bowl of warm water, energy in the water will be used to break the bonds that form the ice. This will cause the water to cool.
My question is, what happens to the energy used to break the ice bonds?”
First question to ask is how the ice bonds were formed in the first place. Someone removed the thermal energy from the water till it reached 0C when a change of state occurred. That involves subjecting the water to lower temps, as in a refrigerator.
Second question. How would you break the bonds? You would drop the ice into warmer water, which has it’s atoms/molecules at a higher thermal energy level. The ice would absorb thermal energy from the water, the bonds would break.
Now for your question, what happens to the energy used to break the bonds?
That leads to another question. What energy is snape talking about and what is it? The energy is thermal energy and it’s the average kinetic energy of the atoms that make up the water molecules. So you have sets of molecules that have lower kinetic energy and sets of molecules with a higher kinetic energy.
A basic principle in heat transfer is that molecules of a higher kinetic energy will merge with molecules of a lower kinetic energy until they reach thermal equilibrium.
What happened to the energy? Again, it is the average kinetic energy of atoms. The energy averages out till the overall kinetic energy of all atoms in the mix is in equilibrium.
The energy is averaged out among all the atoms/molecules.
If you want to get more technical, the existing water molecules are made up of hydrogen and oxygen atoms. The atoms are bonded together by electrons and/or their charges. Electrons in the atoms exist at certain energy levels based on the temperature of the water. The electrons in the atoms of ice exist at lower energy levels.
When you mix the ice and the water, electrons in the water drops to lower energy levels through collision and electrons in the ice rise to higher energy levels due to the same collision. When the ice melts it becomes water with electrons at a lower level than the existing water into which you dropped the ice. Eventually all the electrons reach similar energy levels and the temperature evens out at the equilibrium temperature.
Surprisingly all correct … *UNTIL* you indicated that you believed that THERMAL energy of water is concerned with electron states.
Agreed, another example of a little bit of knowledge being a dangerous thing.
des…”Surprisingly all correct *UNTIL* you indicated that you believed that THERMAL energy of water is concerned with electron states”.
There are two atomic particles at work in water, electrons and protons. It’s the difference in charge between the two that account for ANY kind of inter-atomic bonds. Temperature change in molecules occurs in the bonds, which are about electrons.
Where do you think the heat comes from in water? Electrons govern heat by their energy levels. Protons are incapable of changing energy levels, electrons are the variable parameter. Neutrons seem along for the ride.
Gordon Robertson
You should study some Chemistry as well as physics.
The electrons do not change energy levels in low temperature collisions. That is the realm of visible light. An object must be quite hot to emit this EMR to any degree.
The heat in water comes from the normal motion of the entire molecule, moving in one direction, possessing kinetic energy similar to a macroscopic object, it will exchange energy in a collision with other molecules.
You really need to study some real physics. Your crap you peddle is getting old and not even fun to read for amusement. What is up with you and your obsession to peddle made up physics. Every post with some science in it you post this made up physics you conjured up in your own imagination. Can you stop doing this? Who are you doing it for?
Are you a paid troll who is getting money to make the Skeptic side of the debate look like morons?
So far I have not seen any of the Skeptics on this blog link to established science. They post their own made up versions of science and peddle them or link to their own blog.
I will consider Skeptics views when they are able to support their claims with established physics. I guess it will be a long time for that event to happen.
Norman
You saved me the trouble of a long post. It’s good to see someone here knows some physics. I think Gordon Robertson’s science comes from skimming through Google search results rather than any actual education in the material. He certainly would have failed an exam based on that one.
norman…”You should study some Chemistry as well as physics”.
I don’t know how you’d arrive at such a conclusion since you have demonstrated no understanding of basic physics other than what you have gleaned from reading and misinterpreting books on physics.
I have applied atomic level physics over decades in the fields of electronics, electrical, and computers. You can’t work in those fields successfully without understand the properties of atomic particles like electrons and how they work in circuits.
I have also studied the basics of physics and chemistry in engineering studies at university. I have studied covalent and ionic bonding in molecules both in general chemistry and as applied to semiconductors. I even took a semester course in very basic semiconductor theory that involved measuring electron energy levels as applied in semiconductors.
Heck, Des even gave me a passing grade in my understanding of atomic level physics even though he balked at my claim about electrons and their importance in heating. I can live with that.
You claim electrons don’t change energy levels during low temperature collisions. Then how do they warm through such collisions? There has to be variables in atoms to allow them to change. The electron is the variable, it’s the only part of the atom that can change wrt kinetic energy.
The only way an atom can warm is if it’s electrons absorb more energy. If they absorb more energy they MUST rise to a higher energy level. Ultimately, if they rise to too high an energy level they leave the atom and become free electrons, leaving the atom ionized.
You claim further: The heat in water comes from the normal motion of the entire molecule, moving in one direction, possessing kinetic energy similar to a macroscopic object, it will exchange energy in a collision with other molecules.”
What energy, Norman? It is thermal energy. Thermal energy is the kinetic energy of atoms and it is changed by the electrons only.
What is a molecule, Norman? It is two or more atoms bound together by electrons or charges related to electrons. The electron is vital to the molecule and it is the electron that absorbs energy, not the molecule per se.
The electron changes the temperature of water. All atoms/molecules are nothing more than an aggregation of electrons/protons. There are neutrons but they don’t participate in electrical activity since they are neutral. The proton is bound to the nucleus leaving the electron as the only means of temperature change.
The vibrations in molecules are due to the electrons, or their negative charges, that bond the atoms together to form a molecule. Without electrons there would be no molecule and no vibration.
des…”I think Gordon Robertsons science comes from skimming through Google search results rather than any actual education in the material”.
Science is not about what YOU think. If you want to go at a one on one debate on atomic physics then let’s do it. If you want to really get your ass kicked let’s talk electronics or electrical theory, even computer hardware theory.
It is you alarmists on this blog with your pseudo-scientific propaganda that is the problem. Not one of you can offer a coherent and objective reply to what I have claimed. All you offer is ad homs, insults, and obfuscation. I offer insults but I back it with theory which can be corroborated.
dr no…”Agreed, another example of a little bit of knowledge being a dangerous thing”.
Another armchair physicist. I have yet to see you offer any insight whatsoever into climate or physics. All you do is offer inane articles from alarmists in the media with the insinuation they are somehow related to anthropogenic warming.
des…”You saved me the trouble of a long post”.
You mean you saved yourself the embarrassment of revealing your abject ignorance of science. With one-liners you can hide behind the illusion that you know what you’re saying. With a detailed reply you would reveal to the world how little you really know.
Imagine hiding behind a post of norman in which he posted utter rubbish while insinuating he was some kind of authority on physics. Did you really fall for that?
Gordon says:
“The only way an atom can warm is if its electrons absorb more energy. If they absorb more energy they MUST rise to a higher energy level.”
When you say “energy level”, do you mean orbital level?
https://tinyurl.com/y7bhy84v
The energy is stored in the form of chemical or potential energy, the potential being the total potential energy that describes the interaction between all the molecules.
Two molecules attract each other at larger distances and may form weak bonds when “coming into contact”. These bonds are called Van der Waals bonds and water molecules can even form stronger so called H bonds.
In ice this mean potential energy is low because the molecules form a specific pattern of well ordered H and VdW bonds. Each molecule is essentially in his electronic ground state but the latter is fairly perturbed by the presence of the other molecules and the electrons rearrange in a particularly favorable configuration with much lower energy than in isolated water molecules in vapor.
In liquid water this mean potential energy is fairly higher because the ordered arrangement in space of the molecules in ice is lost, stable bona fide H and VdW bonds can no longer be formed, yet “they can still form and break very rapidly”, the molecules remain close to each other, everyone bound to the whole thing, all are strongly interacting so that the mean energy of whole thing is still well below the one of a collection of isolated molecules far apart .
The latent heat of fusion (about 6 kJ/mole) is thus a measure of the difference in energy of the bonding pattern between molecules in ice and liquid.
In the same way the latent heat of vaporization (about 40 kJ/mole) is a measure of the very large difference in bonding between liquid and gas where H and VdW bonds can no longer exist and form at all.
Thanks for the explanations!
alphagarius…”The energy is stored in the form of chemical or potential energy, the potential being the total potential energy that describes the interaction between all the molecules”.
Good overall explanation but I think you need to go deeper. The energy stored is thermal energy and it is dependent on the energy levels of electrons. Electrons in covalent bonds, and their subsequent -ve charge in ionic bonds, or the van der Waal focess and hydrogen bonding you mention, rely 50% on the charge of electrons.
Without electrons for bonding, you have no molecules and no means of producing heat or transferring heat. Although electrons are in the order of about 1/1800th the size of a proton, they have an equal and opposite charge. Without that negative charge, you have no bonding or any other inter-atomic force of consequence.
Molecules and other inter-atomic bonds in solids vibrate due to the charge difference between electrons and protons. The positive nuclei comprised of +vely charge protons repel each other whereas the negatively charged electrons are attracted to the nuclei. Their alleged momentum keeps them from falling into the nucleii, just as the Moon’s momentum keeps it from spiraling into the Earth. The vibration comes from the equal and opposite polarities working against each other.
When we talk about IR being absorbed by a CO2 molecule, we are actually talking about the electrons in the C – O bonds rising to a higher energy level as the electrons absorb the IR. The more energetic electrons cause the increased bond vibrations which represents the heating in the CO2 molecule.
“When we talk about IR being absorbed by a CO2 molecule, we are actually talking about the electrons in the C O bonds rising to a higher energy level as the electrons absorb the IR.”
How much absorbed energy does it take for that electronic level jump from base level to 1st electronic level Gordon? A commenter of your self-professed education and experience ought to be able to tell us roughly in, say, decade multiples of order kT (the avg. energy of a molecule).
Gordon,
Learn about vibrational modes here, or at least look at the pictures:
https://tinyurl.com/y8t9n8hh
IR a.b.s.o.r.p.t.i.o.n occur when the frequency of the a.b.s.o.r.b.e.d radiation matches the vibrational frequency.
I’m familiar with the argument kingbum poorly articulated.
He thinks the sea ice that keeps Arctic waters insulated from releasing their heat will permit it when sea ice concentration reduces.
Yes, that begs a bunch of questions.
Really?? He seems to be claiming a release of heat DUE to ice melting. His first sentence doesn’t suggest that to me at all, especially given his use of the term “LATENT heat”.
I hope for his sake I’m right. Melting ice itself releases heat? Oh boy.
But that would not be the craziest thing he said:
galactic cosmic rays carry star water and it interacts as water vapor in our atmosphere
I didn’t get that far – I stopped after the first sentence. Sounds like the fiction of a flat-earther, or like the believers in the “electric universe”. I wouldn’t be surprised if we had a few of the latter visiting this blog. They believe the earth revolves around the sun due to electromagnetism – apparently there is no such thing as gravity. I think Gordon might be a contender for this group.
kingbum on October 5, 2017 at 6:01 PM
Wow. A new climate megastar is born.
Just like cockroaches.
Dr No
Such a pleasant comment
Regards
HC
Harry Cummings
Just to prove that you are consistent in your thinking, would you please post this same reply to one of Gordon Robertson’s, one of SkepticGoneWild’s and one of ClimateChange4realz’s “pleasant” comments. We would hate to think your concept of pleasantness was skewed by your belief in climate change.
Edit: Belief CONCERNING climate change.
Just in:
“On Tuesday, 2017 officially became the wettest year in Houston history.
Due to Hurricane Harvey, this week’s light showers were enough to push the yearly rainfall total past 72.86 inches, the previous record which was set in 1900 when the Great Galveston Hurricane made landfall and killed thousands along the coast.
The new rainfall record isn’t just impressive because it’s big, it’s also incredibly early.
Three months remain until the end of the year and 2017 has already beat out other extremely rain-heavy years, many of which also broke records because of tropical storms or hurricanes.”
http://www.chron.com/news/houston-weather/article/houston-harvey-rainfall-climate-change-2017-12254111.php
And they told us AGW causes drought….
Fuego volcano ERUPTS sending ash 5km into the sky after 12 eruptions in ONE HOUR.
http://www.express.co.uk/news/science/862368/Volcano-of-fire-volcan-de-fuego-eruption-guatemala-bali-indonesia
Only 5 km. So it won’t affect climate then.
You’re wrong.
https://earth.nullschool.net/#current/wind/isobaric/500hPa/equirectangular
So you think pretty pictures justify your claim??
A volcano only affects the climate when it spews material into the stratosphere. Any low and it gets rained out.
Popocatepetl spectacular explosion of 5 October 2017 2:26
https://youtu.be/1jIuHGktwvk
I hope you don’t think this was a significant eruption.
The graphics on the right show the mean September sea ice extent on the northern hemisphere. The plotted values correspond approximately to the sea ice area that ‘survived’ the summer melt in the respective years
The graph illustrates a decreasing trend in sea ice extent since 1978, with annual variations of occationally more than 1 million square kilometres.
http://ocean.dmi.dk/arctic/plots/icecover/osisaf_nh_iceextent_monthly-09_en.png
Very similar data plotted on a graph that shows the annual variation more clearly.
http://tinyurl.com/ydyb8jut
For one year the difference in september sea ice extent was nearly 2 mil sq/km, and in another, 1.5 mil sq/km.
Here’s the N.S.I.D.C update on this year’s September minimum.
http://tinyurl.com/ya2hw9x9
Arctic sea ice extent for September 2017 averaged 4.87 million square kilometers (1.88 million square miles), the seventh lowest in the 1979 to 2017 satellite record. This was 1.67 million square kilometers (645,000 square miles) below the 1981 to 2010 average, and 1.24 million square kilometers (479,000 square miles) above the record low September set in 2012.
The Antarcic sea ice has had a very unusual year.
Antarctic sea ice may have reached its maximum extent on September 15, at 17.98 million square kilometers (6.94 million square miles), among the earliest maxima on record. If this date and extent hold, it will be the second-lowest daily maximum in the satellite record, 20,000 square kilometers (7,700 square miles) above 1986. Antarctic sea ice extent has been at record or near-record lows since September 2016. A series of recent studies have explored causes of the sudden decline in extent that occurred in austral late winter and spring of 2016. Most studies conclude that an unusual period of strong meridional windsconsistent with a very pronounced negative phase of the Southern Annular Mode index, coupled with a significant wave-3 pattern in the atmospheric circulationwere the cause. A wave-3 pattern refers to a tendency for circulation around the southern continent to resemble a three-leaf clover, rather than the more typical near-zonal (along lines of longitude) pattern.
More info at link.
Annual Antarctic sea ice extent (total area of at least 15% ice concentration) for selected years since 1979.
http://images.tinypic.pl/i/00937/lrwf4qu6qqlb.png
There’s a page full of Arctic sea ice graphs, with links to source here.
https://sites.google.com/site/arcticseaicegraphs/
Includes the one you posted, ren, and most importantly, the link to the source page.
Thank you.
You’re welcome.
Check out global extent for the last year.
https://tinyurl.com/ybrctqmg
Mainly due to the Antarctic anomaly.
Source page:
https://sites.google.com/site/arctischepinguin/home/global-sea-ice
October 11 is a predicted magnetic storm. Will it be the ignition for the eruption of Mount Agung in Bali?
No. Any eruption on that date will be pure coincidence.
You’re probably right.
https://magma.vsi.esdm.go.id/live/seismogram/
And now we know.
Barry/Bindidon I am being made more aware of things thank to your contributions.
As I said the fact that we disagree is good. That is how we learn.
Des, David also make good contributions.
The polar vortex pattern is unfavorable for North America.
http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/stratosphere/strat_a_f/gif_files/gfs_z50_nh_f00.png
http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/stratosphere/strat_a_f/gif_files/gfs_t50_nh_f00.png
This pattern repeats itself.
http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/stratosphere/strat_a_f/gif_files/gfs_toz_nh_f00.png
Ren is begging to be noticed. Care to pay him lip-service?
Ren agrees pretty much with me that is why I did not mention him.
Respect goes to you, for being curious, no matter who inspires that in you.
(The above to Salvatore)
What? Not me? I’m insulted!
That was nuthin’. Wait til I roll up my sleeves.
Thanks. I like our give and take.
Respect for being a gentleman as well.
I wanted to post this again, and add the solar parameters I think are needed. These parameters are not in full force, but close and coming I believe. My other condition was 10+ years of sub solar activity in general which is in place.
POTENTIAL COOLING
What I am trying to say is La Nina does not factor into my cooling ,although it will cause cooling.
Here is what I am looking for to accompany the potential cooling if my thoughts may be correct.
Factors with the cooling if it comes that will make me confident.
1. Very low solar activity
a. solar wind 350 km/sec or lower
b. ap index 5 or lower with random very high spikes
c. cosmic ray counts 6500 units or greater
d. euv light 100 units or lower, uv light off 5% or more
e. solar flux sub 90
f, imf field 4.2 nt or lower
g. solar irradiance off .05% or more
2. Overall lower sea surface temperatures on a global basis
3. A slight increase in albedo
a. due to an increase in global cloud coverage
b. due to an increase in global snow coverage, sea ice
c. due to a N.H more meridional atmospheric circulation
d. due to an increase in major volcanic activity.
How much of an increase in sea ice? Where are you expecting next September’s Arctic sea ice minimum to lie?
As only equatorial VEI5+ volcanoes lead to cooling, and we have had only two of those in the past 50 years, you’re going to have to do better then wish for an increased eruption rate. You’re going to have to wish for about a fivefold increase just to keep the cooling going.
And you ARE wishing for this … you desperately WANT there to be massive cooling. Pride ahead of suffering.
It is all the above volcanic activity just one small part.
The two big ones for cooling as far as I am concerned if I am correct would be an increase in global cloud coverage and a drop in overall sea surface temperatures.
No I am not wishing for suffering or anything like that.
I have just come up with a theory that how cooling could come about if solar activity is very low for a long enough duration of time.
Global warming if it were to get out of hand would also cause suffering.
With only one of those components failing to make the grade your prediction is canceled?
Looks like a lot of ways to back off you prediction. Surely one of those is not going to make the cut.
You are right these parameters are very low and hard to al hit at the same time but I think they hit pretty much during the 2008-2010 period.
Let me say they have to come close to hitting allowing for me to be wrong easier.
As of now the only parameters I have mentioned that are not near my criteria are solar wind/AP index ,and IMF field.
Everything else is pretty much there or close enough.
For barry and other interested persons:
http://m.uploadedit.com/bbtc/1507293557582.txt
a handmade transcription of
WeatherBELL NCEP CFSR / CDASv2 monthly
Surface temperature 2m above ground Jan 1979 – Aug 2017
by Dr Ryan Maue
Obtained from public data visible on: http://models.weatherbell.com/climate/cfsr_monthly.php
That’s probably the best thing that’s been done here for months. Thanks. Bookmarked.
Barry , it is amazing what he comes up with. Most appreciated.
How do you do it Bindidon! Amazing data. Wow! Thanks!
You’re welcome Salvatore.
As I didn’t find that data within Ryan Maue’s site, I simply moved within the page from year to year and from month to month, and copied the value displayed. Tedious but useful.
Please don’t forget to mention the origin when you use it.
Cool!
binny…”For barry and other interested persons: http://m.uploadedit.com/bbtc/1507293557582.txt”
You have directed us to a NOAA climate forecasting system, the output of a climate model.
In late 1997, when the huge El Nino was under way, it was predicting a global average of 0.071C for December when the actual global average was rocketing to nearly 0.8C.
Throughout 1998, the highest temp it predicted was around 0.267 C. What use is a climate model that could not predict the 1998 EN extreme?
It also missed the 2010 extreme and got 3.4 of the way to the 2016 extreme.
Barry thinks that’s the best thing that has been done here for months.
Don’t worry, I won’t forget to mention the origin when I quote it.
Gordon,
Bindidon put that together because Salvatore prefers this data (and UAH) above all else.
I’m not partial to it, and I don’t think anyone else here is apart from Salvatore.
What Bindidon did was kind and helpful – an aid to the discussion (Sal started it). Giving monthly anomalies that Weatherbell doesn’t provide on a single page in text form, keying in a few hundred monthly anomalies by hand.
It was a collegial gesture for the benefit of others. That’s why I think it was the best thing done around here in months.
You have directed us to a NOAA climate forecasting system, the output of a climate model.
Salvatore directed us there way upthread. He wanted to understand why the Sept anomaly was so different to UAH. We discussed the difference between sat data and a reanalysis product of surface temps.
Here are graphs of UAH minus Weatherbell:
Monthly:
https://drive.google.com/file/d/0B2v56RP5XU7GOUQ5ZEd4a2RSWWs/view?usp=sharing
5-month moving average:
https://drive.google.com/file/d/0B2v56RP5XU7GR3lmS0RhWjRuWEU/view?usp=sharing
13-month moving average:
https://drive.google.com/file/d/0B2v56RP5XU7GelllUV9Xc0J3Y1E/view?usp=sharing
From 1999 to 2008, either Weatherbell is running hot or UAH is running cold. I wonder which. There certainly can be no physical reason for a sudden datum shift from 2007 to 2009.
des…”either Weatherbell is running hot or UAH is running cold”.
Are you serious??? UAH gets there data directly from NOAA satellites and weather bell gets the fudged NOAA data from NOAA. Which one do you think is the more accurate?
Tropical Storm will enter the Gulf of Mexico.
http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/mtpw2/product.php?color_type=tpw_nrl_colors&prod=conus×pan=24hrs&anim=html5
ren
Did you see what’s going on within 140W-150W–30N-40N ?
https://earth.nullschool.net/#2017/10/06/1800Z/wind/isobaric/250hPa/orthographic=-136.23,34.49,786
https://earth.nullschool.net/#2017/10/06/1800Z/wind/isobaric/700hPa/overlay=temp/orthographic=-136.23,34.49,786
Thx ren!
Why weather forecasts do not always come true?
The reason is the variability of solar activity.
About this time last year, global sea ice extent started falling to record lows. Looking now at the much warmer than usual air mass above the Arctic Ocean, I think the same thing is about to happen again.
I’m going to keep pointing this out:
Here is a peak at the air 2 meters above the Arctic Ocean. It looked like this EVERY DAY from September, 2016 – March 2017
Starting a few weeks ago, as if right on que, the warm anomaly is back.
http://cci-reanalyzer.org/wx/fcst/#GFS-025deg.ARC-LEA.T2_anom
Sir Isaac
Thanks for the link, it does exactly what I all the time hope Roy Spencer would one day manage to provide us with, showing his monthly UAH 2.5 deg grid anomalies in the same manner over the entire satellite era.
Un de ses etudiants aimerait certainement se mettre quelque chose de semblable sous la dent, n’est-ce pas?
Bindidon
Yes. I wish Roy would show that.
binny…”I all the time hope Roy Spencer would one day manage to provide us with, showing his monthly UAH 2.5 deg grid anomalies in the same manner over the entire satellite era”.
Do you think satellites scan in 2.5 degree grids? Only used car salesmen like NOAA use such grids because they don’t have the data to show the areas in real time.
They synthesize most of it!!! When are you going to get that?
snape…”Here is a peak at the air 2 meters above the Arctic Ocean. It looked like this EVERY DAY from September, 2016 March 2017…”
It’s a climate model for cripes sake. There’s no one there measuring it.
Why don’t you read the accounts of people who have been to the North Pole, like Ranulph Fiennes and Pat Farmer? Farmer was there later in the year than Fiennes, around March, and he visited the Russian weather station located near the Pole. They reported ice ten feet thick at the Pole. Do you think 10 feet of ice forms with mild temperatures?
You alarmists are getting sillier every day.
Gordon
In winter, If it’s 40 F above average over the Arctic Ocean, it’s still really cold. Duh.
I can’t use a GFS model to tell what the weather is like in Vancouver, BC.?
Satellite Products
The ice surface temperature strongly affects heat exchange between the surface and the atmosphere and the rate of ice growth. In order to perform proper forecasting of weather and sea-ice conditions, it is essential to obtain accurate surface temperatures.
http://ocean.dmi.dk/arctic/ice_temp/index.uk.php
LOL.
Poor Gordon will only believe observations taken by Ranulph Fiennes and Pat Farmer!
Somebody explain to him what an anomaly is.
drno…”Poor Gordon will only believe observations taken by Ranulph Fiennes and Pat Farmer!”
They were there!!! They both walked from the mainland to the NP and the reverse, in the case of Farmer.
How many of the limp wristed modelers get up there to validate their pseudo-scienctific models?
snape…”About this time last year, global sea ice extent started falling to record lows”.
What planet were you on? In January 2017, there was ten feet of ice at the North Pole. It extended from near the Siberian coast to the north of Canada. That’s on turbulent, salty, sea water that takes much lower temps to freeze. You would need sustained temperatures below -40 C to bring that about.
Enough of the Arctic sea ice melting hoax. It is a record low for the one month of the year that represents the Arctic summer.
Gordon, he is living on earth. Where are you living?
https://sites.google.com/site/arctischepinguin/home/global-sea-ice
Young snake is trying out his latest humor, and Tim jumps in to support the pseudoscience.
This from an article written in 1922:
The Arctic seems to be warming up. Reports from fishermen, seal hunters, and explorers who sail the seas about Spitzbergen and the easter Arctic, all point to a radical change in climatic conditions, and hitherto un-heard-of high temperatures in that part of the earths surface.
There were few seal in Spitzbergen waters this year, the catch being far under the average. This, however, did not surprise the captain. He pointed out that formerly the waters about Spitzbergen held an even summer temperature of about 3C; this year recorded temperatures up to 15C, and last winter the ocean did not freeze over even on the north coast of Spitzbergen.
“The Changing Arctic”
https://docs.lib.noaa.gov/rescue/mwr/050/mwr-050-11-0589a.pdf
g*e*r*a*n
Do you think the source I showed, Climatereanalyzer, is fake news, while a report from 1922 must be accurate?
I am inclined to believe both.
Isaac is talking about global sea ice. And he has actual data to back him up.
The fact is, global sea ice has been at or near record lows for a year. This is mainly due to anomalous weather in the Antarctic.
Barry
For me, it’s rather inevitable that Arctic sea ice extent will continue to trend downwards. What has me more interested, is why the temperature over the Arctic Ocean has been so consistently abnormal? 7 months straight last fall/winter (I checked almost every day), but everywhere else on the planet seemed to have the normal ups and downs. Now it appears to be happening again.
barry, check your (very brief) “actual data” for Arctic temps of 15C.
“Spitzbergen held an even summer temperature of about 3C; this year recorded temperatures up to 15C, and last winter the ocean did not freeze over even on the north coast of Spitzbergen.”
Don’t you just love pseudoscience?
I don’t, but I want to thank you for providing an example.
The funny part is CO2 can NOT heat the planet.
Warmists can not get that in their head. They grasp at data-set after data-set, graph after graph, hoping for some evidence to prove their “belief system”.
It’s called pseudoscience, and it’s hilarious to watch.
g*e*r*a*n
C02 heats the earth only in a figurative sense. This has been explained to you over and over, but you’re forever pretending otherwise. It’s like criticizing someone every time they use the word “sunrise”. Pathetic
snake expounds: “C02 heats the earth only in a figurative sense.”
Now that is funny, snake. That’s a new one. Original comedic pseudoscience–I love it.
snape…”C02 heats the earth only in a figurative sense. This has been explained to you over and over, but youre forever pretending otherwise. Its like criticizing someone every time they use the word sunrise”.
You see, snape, in science we like to be precise. CO2 is either warming the atmosphere or it’s not. Observation is a hallmark of science and a good observer will note that the sun is not rising.
Some of us scientific types take exception to climate alarmists spreading sheer figurative nonsense to convince the general public we have a problem when in fact we do not. The late Stephen Schneider, a climate modeler, once queried whether a scientist should lie to get what they consider an important point across to the public. He seemed to think that was OK, I don’t.
There’s a rumour in the hallowed halls of engineering that an engineer was once observing Lady Godiva riding naked through Coventry. He was the only one to apparently observe that she was riding a horse.
Gordon
According to GFS, Vancouver airport was 12 C at 11:00 am.
Is this a hoax?
http://www.weatheronline.co.uk/
Gordon
According to GFS:
The atmosphere at 2 meters above most of the Arctic Ocean will hover around – 10 C. for the next several days. You think this is incorrect? What does Pat Farmer say?
I heard that Pat Farmer is packing his long Johns and will be heading to the Arctic to check it out. He has booked his train ticket so we will know the answer in about a month.
snape…”The atmosphere at 2 meters above most of the Arctic Ocean will hover around 10 C. for the next several days”.
Let’s see where it’s at in December, January, and February and see how thick the ice is at the NP.
It’s not unusual for temps at the NP to rise to nearly 0C mid-winter, Calgary, in Alberta, Canada, is famous for its chinooks. I was there one day when temperatures on one side of a main N/S highway were -20C and on the other side it was about +5C.
Weather has a way of quickly moving air around, even in a frozen environment.
Let’s just say I would not want to try surviving at the NP in an Arctic winter. If the cold don’t snuff you out the polar bears will. We have alarmists whining about polar bears dying off. Let them, for all I care, they are the most treacherous of animals, killing for the sheer joy of it.
Have you warned Pat Farmer?
Tell him to pack his blunderbuss.
(although they may not let him carry that on board the train)
Reports from an Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft
indicate that maximum sustained winds are near 50 mph (85 km/h)
with higher gusts. Strengthening is forecast during the next couple
of days, and Nate is expected to become a hurricane by the time it
reaches the northern Gulf of Mexico.
Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 115 miles (185 km)
mainly to the east of the center. NOAA buoy 42056, located to the
north of the center, recently reported a 1-minute average wind of
38 mph (61 km/h) and a wind gust of 49 mph (79 km/h).
The minimum central pressure recently reported by the Hurricane
Hunter is 996 mb (29.42 inches).
New Orleans must be quickly ready for a hurricane. The tropical storm will be in the north of the Gulf of Mexico tomorrow.
Often enough during the 7-8 last years I read in comments (especially at WUWT) that anomalies are
useless;
a manipulation invented by alarmists and other warmunistas;
much less informative than absolute values.
Sometimes I tried to convince (with the success everybody can imagine) by publishing comments with two graphs, one with absolute values, one with anomalies what a strange word indeed, but who finds a better shortcut for time series deltas with annual cycle removal ?
Is it really a matter of taste to decide which of the two graphs below
http://4GP.ME/bbtc/1507315724836/001.jpg
or
http://4GP.ME/bbtc/1507315978779/001.jpg
is more useful?
And today I discovered by accident these two SST pictures at WeatherBELL, giving a beautiful comparison of the same vein:
http://models.weatherbell.com/sst/globe_cdas1.png
vs.
http://models.weatherbell.com/sst/globe_cdas1_anom.png
The former tells you what everybody knows, namely that it is warmer in the Tropics, and cooler at the Poles.
The latter tells you what not everybody imagines, namely where it is warmer / cooler than the average over a reference period.
My humble guess: those who prefer absolute values never need to work with them.
I had to split the comment (bypassing the link maximum).
The same as described above applies to a choice between
http://4GP.ME/bbtc/1507316296917/001.jpg
and
http://4GP.ME/bbtc/1507316367589/001.jpg
Sea ice extent sources used to generate the Excel graphs:
ftp://sidads.colorado.edu/DATASETS/NOAA/G02135/north/daily/data/
ftp://sidads.colorado.edu/DATASETS/NOAA/G02135/south/daily/data/
Bin
You’re a wizard with data!
Yes, very informative.
Thanks / merci / danke…
Bindidon if the baseline for the satellite data was from 1960- 1990 how much above average would global temperatures be for this year?
Do you have that info available? Thanks.
Given that the satellite data starts in 1979, the only way to figure that out is to use land data. Is that what you’re looking for?
I wanted to see how high . Example I would think if 1960-1990 data were use +.54c based on the current baseline would have been over +.70c
Sorry Salvatore, but the question unfortunately makes few sense, as
– you need the data during that period to calculate the baseline out of it (it is the mean e.g. for each of 12 twelve months);
but
– satellite data begins with 1978/1979.
That’s would have been interesting.
Bindidon if the baseline for the satellite data was from 1960- 1990 how much above average would global temperatures be for this year?
With a lower baseline anomalies would be higher. The global temperature would be exactly the same.
I know barry. But I prefer to stay on known, reliable matters.
Exactly ,I would like to know how high the anomalies would be now if the baseline from 1960-1990 was used.
salvatore…”Exactly ,I would like to know how high the anomalies would be now if the baseline from 1960-1990 was used”.
The question arises as to why the alarmists at NOAA, GISS, and Had.crut are using such a short baseline to cover the entire historical record, which they have modified retroactively? The inclusion of the 1960s and into the 70s, which were considered colder times exaggerates current warming.
The UAH baseline covers almost its entire record. What happens if we adjust the anomalies to the entire historical record from around 1850 onward?
Don’t be so lazy. Do it yourself.
It is not that difficult to download the data and perform the calculations. I could do it in under 5 minutes.
I bet you can’t.
You are happy to sit back and throw rocks at all the work others do.
Now’s your chance to back up your words with actions.
How high are the anomalies based on 1960-1990 baseline?
That would mean more to see where we are at.
One more time, Salvatore: to compute anomalies with respect to a baseline, e.g. 1961-1990, you must
– (1) build, for each of the twelve months, the average of the absolute values measured in each corresponding month of the reference period;
– (2) subtract, from each absolute month value in the whole record, the average computed in step (1) for the corresponding month.
But as barry proposed, we could use the JMA surface record, which has the most similarity to UAH, and, in order to make it as simple as possible, compute in it the offset between the 1981-2010 and 1961-1990 baselines, and shift all UAH anonalies up by this offset.
The offset value is 0.245.
Of course, you have to do the job on a day basis for a daily oriented dataset, on a year basis for a yearly oriented one, etc etc.
That can become quite complex if in addition you have a grid of e.g. 144 x 72 cells with 13 atmospheric pressure levels for each: all must have their own baseline value.
Yes, satellite data only begin in Nov/Dec 1978. There is no data to construct a baseline starting earlier than that.
binny…”Is it really a matter of taste to decide which of the two graphs below”
Explain why the Antarctic sea ice is increasing in link two while the Arctic sea ice is decreasing? Does CO2 favour the Arctic or maybe global warming rises to the top???
Also you might explain that the data applies to one or two months in and around the Arctic summer. The rest of the year, both areas as frozen solid.
Now, the ice grows rapidly in the Laptev Sea. The Arctic Ocean will be divided into two parts.
http://pics.tinypic.pl/i/00938/p46bc9nzq14a.png
http://pics.tinypic.pl/i/00938/643b0lgtlro2.png
g*e*r*a*n on October 6, 2017 at 2:57 PM
Thanks for the interesting reference, g*e*r*a*n, but I prefer to rely on nake numbers concerning the actual situation.
That the Arctic has been warmer then today in the 1930’s and even a bit more warm in the 1880’s, is a known fact.
*
Here is a graph containing the daily plots, for the period: Jan 1, 2015 till Oct 5, 2017, of the following data sets
– Arctic sea ice extent;
– Antarctic sea ice extent;
– their sum.
http://4GP.ME/bbtc/1507324542459/001.jpg
Linear estimates for that period, im Mkm2 / decade:
– Arctic: -10.5 +- 1.3 (decrease)
– Antarctic: +5.35 +- 2.2 (increase)
– Sum: -5.2 +- 1.1 (decrease)
Sea ice extent sources:
ftp://sidads.colorado.edu/DATASETS/NOAA/G02135/north/daily/data/
ftp://sidads.colorado.edu/DATASETS/NOAA/G02135/south/daily/data/
Is that in your opinion pseudoscience too, g*e*r*a*n?
Let me know…
Note that these extreme increases / decreases are bound to a very short period.
The sea ice extent estimates for Jan 1979- Apr 2017 in Mkm2 / decade are
– Arctic: -0.55 +- 0.02
– Antarctic: + 0.20 +- 0.02
That is what we have to look at!
Gordon
Nobody is claiming the North Pole is ice free. Far from it: According to Wikipedia:
“Earth’s North Pole is covered by floating pack ice (sea ice) over the Arctic Ocean. Portions of the ice that do not melt seasonally can get very thick, up to 34 meters thick over large areas, with ridges up to 20 meters thick. One-year ice is usually about 1 meter thick.”
“…but I prefer to rely on nake numbers concerning the actual situation.”
Is “nake” supposed to be “naked” or “fake”?
☺
You may well have known that the Arctic has been much warmer than this year. But, you did not point it out, as I did. You might ask yourself “Why”?
“Is that in your opinion pseudoscience too”
I’m ALWAYS wary of data from “institutionalized science”, until the “swamps” get drained. But, even if the Arctic readings are exactly correct, it means nothing as far as AGW, as you have now agreed.
How can I agree upon things I do not know enough about?
That would be – in either direction – belief instead of understanding.
We all here do, in the sum, not at all know enough to state ‘It is AGW’ or ‘It is not AGW’, g*e*r*a*n.
Sorry Bin, my wording was not clear. I just meant to imply that you agreed that low sea ice does not mean anything, if historical records are considered.
But, some of us DO know enough to state “It is not AGW”.
Exactly g*e*r*a*n.
The problem with you is that you think anybody stating ‘It is AGW’ is automatically incompetent.
That you should avoid, quite a I on my side carefully avoid to think the inverse.
I know, you will reply something I don’t need, but you can’t stop by your own.
‘Das ist der unbeherrschte Drang, das letzte Wort zu haben’.
g*e*r*a*n
Gordon still thinks low sea ice is a hoax. Maybe you could convince him otherwise?
He won’t listen to reason, but maybe he would listen to another fool.
Robertson on October 6, 2017 at 12:38 PM
Robertson troll, you get day after day a bit more dumb.
All you are able to do is to lie about people or to discredit people. You are unable to discuss even simple matters.
How long will you need to understand that surface temperatures do not match satellite temperatures and vice-versa, especially during big El Nino events?
How long?
Here is a plot comparing WeatherBELL, UAH6.0 and JMA, the ‘coolest’ surface record:
http://4GP.ME/bbtc/15073318916/001.jpg
WeatherBELL has his data and algorithms, JMA has his data and algorithms.
Their time series differ here and there, but their linear estimates are identical. Their differences with UAH are in average quite similar.
*
How can such a thoroughly irrelevant, incompetent loudmouth like you doubt about the accuracy of other peoples work?
Who are you in comparison with a Dr Ryan Maue? What do you represent in comparison with him? A handful of peanuts. Do you think such a person would ever rely on NOAA’s work if he did not consider it trustworthy?
Think instead of writing, Robertson, it might be an experience for you, with as possible result a bit more respect for the work of others.
Bin, just above, you indicated your “moral code” prevented you from calling people “incompetent”.
Then, 20 minutes later, you called Gordon “incompetent”.
In the future, maybe you should wait more than 20 minutes before you violate your own “code of conduct”.
As always, glad to help.
No g*e*r*a*n … you are wrong here.
‘Just above’ as you wrote, I said that I would carefully avoid to pretend anybody being incompetent when s/he says: ‘IT’s not AGW’ (and conversely, I carefully avoid to pretend anybody being incompetent when s/he says: ‘IT’s AGW’).
Because whichever the arguments these persons would present, I am not scientifically qualified to determine which of these are right.
What concerns your troll naming me an idiot, he has shown often enough his incompetence. The most recent event is the nonsense he wrote about the Arctic warming he considers inexistent just because somewhere ice is x meters thick.
No 12 years old person would do that today.
And there are so many other examples, g*e*r*a*n, e.g. his nonsense discussion about Rudolf Clausius, about GHCN stations, etc.
It’s now 3:00 AM here, and I stop this boring comment.
Good night.
binny…”What concerns your troll naming me an idiot, he has shown often enough his incompetence. The most recent event is the nonsense he wrote about the Arctic warming he considers inexistent just because somewhere ice is x meters thick”.
I call myself an idiot when I make egregious errors. That’s when I’m being nice to myself. I think all humans are idiots at one time or another.
That’s why I call you an idiot. You have ten metres of ice at the North Pole in January and you don’t understand why.
There is no sun!!! Do you seriously think any amount of CO2 in the Arctic atmosphere will warm it with no or little Sun for several months? The lack of solar energy allows very cold air from the upper atmosphere to descend on the Arctic.
If there is 5C warming in certain spots of the Arctic, which move around monthly, and there is no sun to warm the place, how can you call that warming? It warms from -50C to -45C due to unknown causes. It’s still a frozen wasteland.
The idiots who claim Arctic ice is melting are referring to one month that is the Arctic summer. There is no one up there in winter measuring ice extent and no one talks about the Arctic ice cover, which covers the Arctic ocean at times, from Siberia to the Canadian shores with 10 metres of ice.
It has to be damned cold to cover a turbulent ocean of salt water with 10 metres of ice.
People have walked across the ice in winter to the North Pole.
Why do you fall for this alarmist bs. I am sure you are an intelligent guy, why do you talk like an idiot at times? Get over this fetish you have with authority and start asking hard questions.
binny….”Because whichever the arguments these persons would present, I am not scientifically qualified to determine which of these are right.
What concerns your troll naming me an idiot, he has shown often enough his incompetence”.
How would you know I am scientifically incompetent if you admit you are not scientifically qualified? Logic like that ‘might’ get you a degree in anthropology but not in physics or engineering.
You need to prove I am wrong using scientific reasoning and proof, not base you opinion on other alarmists on this blog.
When it comes to Clausius, he stated clearly that heat cannot be transferred of it own from a colder body to a warmer body. He went deeply into that explanation and while explaining compensation he inadvertently claimed that a colder and a warmer body can exchange heat.
You jumped to a conclusion that Clausius had claimed a colder body can warm a warmer body but he was talking in the context of compensation. In his demonstrations, he used heat reservoirs to ensure that.
If a colder body is to exchange heat with a warmer body, the colder body must be compensated immediately for it’s heat loss. That cannot take place in our atmosphere.
A colder body can transfer heat to a warmer body, we all know a refrigerator or air conditioner do that, however, there are certain requirements that must be in place in order for that to happen. With an air conditioner you need a compressor driven by external power, a special gas (re.frig.erant), a condenser, and an evapourator.
The point is, under normal conditions, as in our atmosphere, heat cannot be transferred from a colder gas to a warmer gas, or a warmer surface. That pretty well rules out the GHE and AGW.
g*r…”Then, 20 minutes later, you called Gordon incompetent”.
I would have no argument with binny on that, I generally regard myself as incompetent, even an idiot. ☺
I find it tough to endure this life without seeing the humourous side of things or engaging in self-deprecation. Me calling binny an idiot is like the stove calling the kettle black.
binny…”How long will you need to understand that surface temperatures do not match satellite temperatures and vice-versa, especially during big El Nino events? ”
All you need to do is compare ‘actual’ trend lines, not the number crunched trend based on plugging numbers into a calculator. The UAH trend begins in a region of negative anomalies, crosses the baseline, which is the global average from 1980 – 2010, rises a smidgeon, then flattens out till 2015. The IPCC has corroborated the flat trend from 1998 – 2012, calling it a warming hiatus.
The surface trend is a sheer positive trend from 1980 onward and it is significantly higher than the UAH trend.
The offset value is 0.245.
Makes sense Bindidon. Helps give more perspective on what has happened to the climate.
Dear Salvatore, if Bindidons message had no ‘Reply’ link, please find the nearest one above it.
He doesn’t understand this concept. I’ve been trying to teach him this basic etiquette for a few months now.
That’s a pity, the payload here is confusing enough without random message mixing.
Meaning if the climate cools by some .24c from here it would still need to cool another .24c or so to get back to 1960-1990 levels.
Do you agree?
Roughly that
How much would you be willing to bet on AGW? 5$, 10$, your house?
If the answer is your house? I doubt it.
What about your car? Do you still drive it? I don’t care if it is electric, which is probably isn’t. Do you order things from the internet? Do you have solar panels? What is your MPG? Do you eat meat? Do you use you air conditioning? What about your heater?
You say you know AGW is happening. Your actions speak otherwise.
I’ve offered many bets on AGW. No one has ever taken me up.
Shall I propose a bet? What would your stake be?
So what would we need to observe in order to find out if “AGW” is happening or not, barry?
That’s why I am a skeptic I do not know. I never said I know AGW doesn’t exist, I am skeptical it does exist. That’s why I wont give up my car. Do you drive a car?
I don’t own a car, but that is more to do with having little money than some moral choice.
So what would we need to observe in order to find out if AGW is happening or not, barry?
I usually make an offer on a bet when a ‘skeptic’ makes some kind of predictive claim – usually about imminent cooling, or the return of the pause.
So if you and I were to make a bet, I would be asking you if there was any outcome that would cause you to “believe” in AGW, or some set of conditions that “disprove” your own view of what causes/is causing climate change.
Salvatore has risked a prediction for next year. I don’t think it’s going to “prove or disprove” AGW, but he’s committed to something based on how he views the climate system.
The AGW view is pretty straightforward. As long as anthro emissions of CO2 continue unchecked, the global surface will continue to warm over the long term.
-So if you and I were to make a bet, I would be asking you if there was any outcome that would cause you to believe in AGW, or some set of conditions that disprove your own view of what causes/is causing climate change.
Salvatore has risked a prediction for next year. I dont think its going to prove or disprove AGW, but hes committed to something based on how he views the climate system.-
I can’t think of anything that would make me believe in AGW.
But there other option of a set of conditions which would disprove my view.
Well, my view is that Earth was never a snowball:
“The Snowball Earth hypothesis proposes that Earth’s surface became entirely or nearly entirely frozen at least once, sometime earlier than 650 Mya (million years ago).” -wiki
Related to this is that if put a lot water at Mars equator, it would increase the average temperature of Mars.
But will make it more stark, if put a lot of -60 C snow/ice
at the Mars equatorial region it will cause Mars become warmer.
Of course presently the equatorial region is warmer than -60 C. So the immediate effect would be to make Mars have lower average temperature.
I guess more people might agree that instead if you put enough -60 C snow on lunar equatorial region, that would cause the Moon be warmer.
Of course both would be examples of AGW effects.
And visual effect from Earth of snow on the equatorial of the Moon would be surprising.
Btw would you think that such a thing could cause warming effect upon Earth?
It’s cold making something warmer, argument, isn’t it?
I think it’s better than ice cooking a turkey.
barry says, October 7, 2017 at 3:19 PM:
So if you and I were to make a bet, I would be asking you if there was any outcome that would cause you to believe in AGW, or some set of conditions that disprove your own view of what causes/is causing climate change.
Yes, and then I might ask you:
Is there any outcome that will cause you to no longer believe in AGW, that an increasing concentration of CO2 in the atmosphere is causing the climate to warm?
Exactly. Which is why, being wedded to this particular conviction, you will end up believing – whether you’re conscious about it or not – that observing global temps increasing over time somehow itself constitutes evidence that your idea of what’s CAUSING that rise is correct.
Exactly. Which is why, being wedded to this particular conviction, you will end up believing whether youre conscious about it or not that observing global temps increasing over time somehow itself constitutes evidence that your idea of whats CAUSING that rise is correct.
Yep, it does constitute….
EVIDENCE
…. that increasing conc of CO2 in atmos causes surface to warm.
But that is not why I hold the opinion that it does.
What would be the conditions under which you would accept a bet that AGW is real? As in, something observable in the future.
I don’t bet on AGW, Duncanbelem.
No car, using as less CO2 as possible. Why to use it if I can avoid doing??
And yes, I ‘order things from the internet’, though I know that Amazon, Facebook etc etc have giant server farms partly driven by coal plants!
I don’t say I ‘know AGW is happening’.
I only say that not all IR reemitted by Earth in response to solar SW passing thru the atmosphere is evacuated out to space.
That’s all I know and thus all I say. That’s enough, too.
The rest I leave to people knowing more than I.
More food for thought. Don’t solar panels absorb solar radiation, which is then turned into energy, and eventually turns into heat? So couldn’t solar panels heat the earth if there enough of them? How does that compare to man made CO2?
Fossil fuel energy sytems turn cold fossil fuels into energy, too. Can you think of a way of comparing?
Solar panels convert about 20% of sunlight into electrical power. Or said to to be about 20% efficient.
A Solar thermal collector in contrast of about 60%. Or per square meter a solar thermal collector captures about 3 times the amount of energy as solar panels.
And basically oceans are Nature’s solar thermal collectors.
Solar panels aren’t a viable way to make electricity and a large amount of solar panels that exist are subsidized.
If there were viable there would a lot of solar panels being used to make electricity, but solar panels only generate less than 1% of electrical power which needed.
With say a coal electrical power plant they tend to more 50% efficient, which means of total heat generated more than 1/2 of the heat is converted to electrical power. Or about 1/2 of the heat energy is “wasted” but if purpose is to make heat to warm the world, it’s not “wasted”. Or it’s “100% efficient” in terms of warming the world.
In terms of CO2 heating the world, no one knows how much CO2 warms the world, because the increased levels of CO2 has not had measurable warming effect. But some people think a doubling of CO2 would cause about 1 to 5 C of warming. Increase the average temperature of Earth by 1 to 5 C.
Climate models which assumed a doubling of CO2 could cause 1 to 5 C increase in global temperature, have incorrectly predicted future warming. And therefore many assume that CO2 must cause less warming then they thought.
But were a doubling of Co2 to cause 1 C increase in global average temperature, this would case more warming than all chemical combustion, whether it’s coal, oil, gas, or forest fires.
Ah, but there is a thing I forget to mention, making solar panels costs a lot of energy- they require more viable energy to be used to make them. And since China makes most of the solar panels and China burns coal to make over 80% of their electrical power. I would say the heat added by making them is more the the heat from their use.
Duncanbelem on October 6, 2017 at 10:52 PM
Dont solar panels absorb solar radiation, which is then turned into energy, and eventually turns into heat?
Hmmmh.
1. Either you look at solar panels built over ordinary soil or upon roofs, and there you see that the panels won’t absorb much more than would have had the stuff below in their absence.
Or you look at the giant solar farms actually built everywhere in desertic areas, and there indeed you see an increase of absorp-tion and a decrease of albedo because desert sand efficiently reflects sun light.
2. But… what about considering, as barry slightly suggested, the heat generated by traditional plants?
For each GWh you produce in a coal/gas driven or a nuclear plant, you have 3.3 GWh thermic energy dissipated into the environment (either into rivers, or into the atmosphere).
3. Moreover, when comparing such things, you can’t reduce the comparison to the generation point.
You have to consider, like for cost calculation or CO2 emissions, the heat produced during the entire process
– from the plant’s construction till its dismantling;
– during the plant’s existence of course, and, last not least,
– from the extraction and processing of the resources needed to drive the plant till their disposal after energy production.
Having that all, you then may compare.
Good points, How do we know the Warming we are experiencing is CO2 and not power generation?
Duncanbelem
The energy produced by combustion and solar is transitory. CO2 accumulates.
snape…”The energy produced by combustion and solar is transitory. CO2 accumulates”.
Not exactly true. Besides, it’s accumulation over the past couple of hundred years only amounts to 0.04% of the atmosphere. Does that seriously scare you?