Return to Sender? China is Country Most Likely to See Tiangong-1 Burn Up

April 1st, 2018 by Roy W. Spencer, Ph. D.

As China’s Tiangong-1 Space Station now rapidly falls to meet its fiery demise in the next several hours, the Aerospace Corporation’s most recent estimate of the potential paths of reentry show that China has the greatest statistical chance of any country of seeing the spectacle, with the longest potential reentry orbit sections:

Aerospace Corp estimate of the most likely orbits which the Tiangong-1 satellite will reenter the atmosphere from. Graphic courtesy of

Of course, the Pacific Ocean and the S. Atlantic have a bigger chance, but it would be fitting if China got a few pieces of their first Space Station returned to them.

The latest estimated reentry time (see updates here) is 8:18 EDT today (April 1), +/-2 hours.

45 Responses to “Return to Sender? China is Country Most Likely to See Tiangong-1 Burn Up”

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  1. David Appell says:

    “Fitting?” I don’t think any Chinese person or group deserves to be harmed by a falling satellite because it went out of control.

    Would it have been “fitting” for the US space shuttle to have crashed into a house or building in Huntsville when it came down in 2003?

    • Laura says:

      Only anti-human climate alarmists can think of “fitting” as “deserving to be harmed”, since they themselves do it all the time.

      Rational people, instead, consider the situation and ask a simple question. Who is responsible for the situation? No need to reply. Just give it a go. Tanzanians? Ecuadorians? Mongolians?…

      • David Appell says:

        The Chinese are responsible. Just as the US was responsible for the 2003 crash of the space shuttle. Only luck prevented pieces then from falling in highly populated areas.

        It’s never “fitting” for a falling satellite or shutting to come down into any country just because they launched it. It’s just potentially tragic. Better word choice, please.

        • ossqss says:

          The Montreal protocol was the killer in my book David. Similar in end result to what you support in taking away cheap, effective energy from the poor. Death by the hands of environmenatlism.

        • David Appell says:

          Montreal protocol?? — Not what I commented on.

          Are you poor?
          Then why do you “deserve” cheap energy? Why shouldn’t you be expected to pay the costs your pollution creates? Why shouldn’t you be required to use clean, sustainable energy? Isn’t that the responsible thing to do?

          • g*e*r*a*n says:

            appelly, rhymes with jelly, you must have a huge guilt complex. You are sponging off others, without supplying any meaningful production. You are living off welfare. You feel guilty. So you appease your anxieties by attempting to transfer your guilt onto others.

            All you have to do is get a job. It’s that simple.

            Glad to help.

          • David Appell says:

            Dr. Spencer, can’t you finally block this troll?

          • g*e*r*a*n says:

            Dr. Roy, I request that you keep troll, Jelly the Clown.

            He is a perfect representation of pseudoscience.

            You have many new visitors, and they need to learn.

            You try to teach science, and the trolls try to teach pseudoscience.

            It’s a learning experience.

          • David Appell says:

            g* — Explain why you shouldn’t be required to pay the damage costs of your pollution.

          • g*e*r*a*n says:

            Clown, before you start asking nonsense questions of others, you need to explain why you run from the truth.

            Why do you run from reality?

          • David Appell says:

            Roy, see what I mean?

            Why keep people here who refuse to discuss science?

          • professorP says:

            “Why keep people here who refuse to discuss science?”
            Yes, an interesting question. Personally, I am here monitor the psychology.
            An excellent read is: Climate Denial: Emotion, Psychology, Culture, and Political Economy
            Kari Marie Norgaard, The Oxford Handbook of Climate Change and Society, Edited by John S. Dryzek, Richard B. Norgaard, and David Schlosberg.
            “The term denial is sometimes used to describe the phenomenon of outright rejection of information as true. However, the term, in the case of climate change, has several other aspects. This article outlines the phenomenon of climate denial, that is, the active resistance to information on a collective level. It begins with a review of existing explanations for the public failure to respond to climate change from psychology and sociology. It then uses ethnographic data to introduce the framework of socially organized denial. This view from the ground up builds upon many of the explanations to concept of denial, and highlights the intersecting role of emotions, culture, social structure, and inequality in people’s lived experience. Broadly, this article is concerned with the more pervasive and everyday problem of how and why people who purport to be concerned about climate change, manage to ignore it.”

          • AndyG55 says:

            “Dr. Spencer, cant you finally block this troll?”

            Asking Roy to block you ??????

            Use your own willpower, rotten appell.

          • AaronS says:

            Dave, the cost of opening up high latitudes for habitation and buffering the next little ice age with CO2 are fantastically undervalued in every economic model I have seen.

          • g*e*r*a*n says:

            Jelly the Clown asks: “Why keep people here who refuse to discuss science?”

            appelly does NOT want to discuss science. He has asked various people, maybe 100 times, about his “missing” 150 Watts/m^2.

            I had given him numerous hints, to see if he really wanted the truth. Finally, I gave him a complete answer, which was rejected.


            He does not want science. He only wants his hilarious pseudoscience. He’s a clown. People need to see this. That’s why I vote to keep him here. He’s a great example of a closed-mind.

    • g*e*r*a*n says:

      Jelly appelly, appearing nightly as “Jelly the Clown”, at the blog of your choice.

      Free admission.

    • AaronS says:

      His tone is clearly suggesting getting a piece of satellite would be a national treasure- it would be for me. Are u implying the station will do damage as it enters? That would be unfortunate. It is a different discussion and I am ignorant if there are robust components that could survive entry as large mass bodies. I am all for learning about this concept if anyone knows. This blog is one of the pages i have access to because most sites like google and facebook are closed. I will ask around today and see if this has been covered here in Chinese media.

    • TopTuna says:

      David Appell. I am sure Dr Spencer was not intimating that he wanted anybody harmed by the Chinese space station falling. Simply that the country got a bit of its space junk back.

  2. Erik Aamot says:

    I am so relieved now that parts will not be landing on my farm in Uganda

  3. Myki says:

    I was hoping it would re-enter near me. Firstly, it would have been a spectacular sight and secondly, there would have been a miniscule chance of finding a piece to sell.

  4. ossqss says:

    You obviously did not read the article. Par for the course. Then you again advocate for sustainable energy which constitutes a minuscule (solar and wind) power source for global needs. You must be a misanthrope by Nature! Proven by your own words. Do you know dung and wood burning is a vastly larger part of the renewable energy category than solar or wind? How does dung cooking do on the list of benefits to many globally vs. Electricity? So sad you want people to hurt David. So sad. …

  5. Dr No says:

    For safety reasons, White House staff told Donald Trump to hide in the bunker.
    He was last seen cowering in a sand trap.

    • Mike Flynn says:


      So sad, too bad.

      Tomorrow, it’s likely that Donald Trump will still be President, and you and Hillary Clinton still won’t be.

      That should give you time to dream up some more pointless and irrelevant (not to say ineffective) attempts at gratuitous offense.

      Go for it. I’m not sure if your intended target is quaking in his boots at the prospect of your less-than-devastating attack, but maybe you can tell us.


    • Dr No says:

      The president’s wife came home with some dreadful news. Im pregnant she cried.

      And how do you know its yours? shouted Donald.

      • AndyG55 says:

        Poor Dr No-thing.

        Trump derangement syndrome to the core of his tiny little mind.

      • Mike Flynn says:


        Better, but I assume Donald Trump is still President, and you’re not.

        A far better joke is that some people think that Gavin Schmidt is a climate scientist, or that Michael Mann won a Nobel Prize! That’s hilarious, don’t you agree?

        Keep them coming. I find the non-existence of anything remotely scientific (such as a testable GHE hypothesis) underpinning the clownish antics of certain balding, bearded, bumbling buffoons, exceptionally droll. Don’t you?

        Keep me laughing!


      • Dr No says:

        A sobbing Mrs Trump approaches Fr O’Grady after mass.

        He says: “So what’s bothering you?”

        She replies: “Oh, Father, I’ve terrible news. My husband passed away last night.”

        The priest says: “Oh, that’s terrible. Did he have any last requests?”

        “Certainly father,” she replied. “He said: “Please Melania, put down that damn gun.”

        • Mike Flynn says:


          Recycled Irish joke. Still funny.


          • Dr No says:

            You actually have a sense of humour? Could have fooled me.

          • Dr No says:

            Speaking of recycling – how about all of your posts?

          • Mike Flynn says:


            You are easily fooled – probably because you are stupid and ignorant.

            This no doubt accounts for your pointless and irrelevant comments.

            How about some more psychobabble – pretend you are a bumbling, balding, bearded, buffoon, like some pseudoscientists calling themselves “climatologists”.

            Maybe you could pretend Hillary Clinton is US President, if that will make your life easier.


          • Dr No says:

            Was that meant to be an original post?
            Come on! Try a bit harder.

          • Mike Flynn says:


            No and no.


  6. ren says:

    A snowstorm is developing in the northeast of the US.

  7. Tim says:

    We have had a consistently cold winter in the UK, some areas had record snow levels. Snow as later as April. Even now the spring days are late. We are getting back to 60’s and 70’s winters. My big concern is lower crop production due to warming scaremongering.

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