Florida Major Hurricane Strikes: No Significant Increase in Intensity from Sea Surface Warming

September 4th, 2019 by Roy W. Spencer, Ph. D.

Summary: Twenty-two major hurricanes have struck the east coast of Florida (including the Keys) since 1871. It is shown that the observed increase in intensity of these storms at landfall due to SST warming over the years has been a statistically insignificant 0.43 knots per decade (0.5 mph per decade). Thus, there has been no observed increase in landfalling east coast Florida major hurricane strength with warming.

In the news reporting of major Hurricane Dorian which devastated the NW Bahamas, it is commonly assumed that hurricanes in this region have become stronger due to warming sea surface temperatures (SSTs), which in turn are assumed to be caused by human-caused greenhouse gas emissions.

Here I will use observational data since the 1870s to address the question: Have landfalling major hurricanes on the east coast of Florida increased in intensity from warming sea surface temperatures?

The reason I am only addressing landfalling hurricanes on the east coast of Florida is three-fold: (1) this area is a hotbed of major hurricane activity; (2) the record is much longer for landfalling hurricanes, since before the early 1970s the intensity of major hurricanes well offshore was much more uncertain; and (3) the coastal population there is now several million people, the region south of West Palm Beach is historically prone to major hurricane strikes, and so the question of whether hurricane intensity there has increased due to ocean warming is of great practical significance to many people.

First let’s start with the record of major hurricane strikes on the east coast of Florida, including the keys. There have been 22 such storms since 1871, occurring quite irregularly over time.

While there has been a slight increase in the intensity of these storms over time, amounting to +0.8 knots per decade, the correlation is quite low (0.21) and the quantitative relationship is only barely significant at the 1-sigma level.

But this doesn’t tell us the role of sea surface temperatures (SSTs). So, next let’s examine how SSTs have changed over the same period of time. Since all of these major hurricanes made landfall in the southern half of Florida, I chose the following boxed region (22N-28N, 75W-82W) to compute area-averaged SST anomalies for all months from 1870 through 2018 (HadSST data available here).

Since 18 of the 22 major hurricane strikes occurred in either August (4) or September (14), (and 4 were in October), I focused on the average SST anomaly for the 2-month periods August-September. Here’s the 2-month average SST anomalies for 1870-2018.

Note that the years with major hurricane strikes are marked in red. What surprised me is that the SST warming in this region during peak hurricane season (August/September) has been very weak: +0.02 C/decade since 1871, and +0.03 C/decade since 1950.

If we then compare SST anomaly with storm intensity at landfall, we get the following plot. Here I took into account which month the hurricane occurred in for the purposes of computing a 2-month SST anomaly. For example, if the storm hit in October, I used the September/October average. If landfall was in August, I used the July/August average.

There is a weak relationship between SST and storm intensity (correlation = 0.19), but the regression coefficient (+13.5 kts/deg. C warming) is not statistically significant at the 1-sigma level.

Now, if we just ignore statistical lack of significance and assume these quantitative relationships are mostly signal rather than noise, we can multiply the 0.03 C/decade SST warming trend since 1950 by the 13.5 kts/deg C “warming sensitivity parameter”, and get +0.43 kts/decade of storm intensity increase per decade due to SST warming, which is almost exactly 0.5 mph per decade.

This is an exceedingly small number. That would be 5 mph per century.

So, based upon the observed SST data from the Hadley Centre, and hurricane data from the National Hurricane Center, we conclude that warming SSTs have caused a tiny increase in intensity of landfalling major hurricanes by 0.5 mph per decade.

I suspect a statistician (which I am not) would say that this is in the noise level.

In other words, there is no observational evidence that warming SSTs have made landfalling hurricanes on the east coast of Florida any stronger.

213 Responses to “Florida Major Hurricane Strikes: No Significant Increase in Intensity from Sea Surface Warming”

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  1. Paul says:

    Hi, Dr. Spencer.
    Jacksonville, FL native here. I dont see Dora from 64 in your data. It ravaged my area. 115mph winds. I dont think it will change your conclusion.
    Thanks for all you do and educating me,

  2. Roy W. Spencer says:

    Dora made landfall as a Cat 2.

  3. Nate says:

    Checked trend for that area of ocean for 70-present. It is 0.15 C/decade.

    Might be another way to look at it.

    But still limiting to landfalling in Florida, and only > cat 3 is making for paltry stats.

    • Roy W. Spencer says:

      If a signal doesn’t show up across 22 major hurricanes, why should we pay attention to the unsubstantiated media claims regarding 1 major hurricane?

      • Mike O says:

        Does it really matter is a “signal” shows up? Why do people expect every measurement across any given number of years to be flat.
        I really wish we could stop using CO2 completely just to watch what happens when people realize weather is not constant. Man are people going to be scratching their head when we still have hurricanes, tornados, droughts, floods, and all the rest of the catastrophic events mother nature throws at us.

    • Nate says:

      These stats are better than those used by news media…but not by much.

  4. Paul says:

    My bad. One source I quickly looked up said speeds of 115mph at landfall. I should have verified with multiple sources. You are correct. Landfall was 110 mph, at the upper limit of Cat 2 storm.

  5. captain droll says:

    That expert on hurricanes, Donald Trump, held a briefing on Hurricane Dorian and held up a National Hurricane Center map from 29 August, displaying the hurricane’s track and intensity. Someone had apparently used a marker pen to add a black loop falsely extending the hurricane’s path from Florida to Alabama. It was apparently a belated effort to justify Trump’s previous baseless claim that the latter state could be affected. Yes! he, alone, predicted that Dorian would affect Alabama!
    What a genius!

    • Mike Flynn says:

      The future is unknowable. If 132 GCMs produce different results, the at least 131 must be wrong.

      It doesn’t take a genius to realise that GCMs are completely and utterly useless.

      In the opinion of President of the United States of America, he is a very stable genius. You have confirmed his opinion.

      A mark of his genius is the inclusion of the word “could”, if your reporting is accurate. As Lorenz asked “Predictability: Does the Flap of a Butterfly’s Wings in Brazil Set off a Tornado in Texas?”

      It turns out that the answer is it “could”. It appears that POTUS is smarter than you, at least, although this is no particular accomplishment. Feel free to try and convince others how clever you are. I wish you every success, but you might have to overcome the obstacles of stupidity and ignorance, first.


      • captain droll says:

        “It doesnt take a genius to realise that GCMs are completely and utterly useless.”
        I bet the next time a hurricane approaches, you would be the first to study the predicted tracks.

        • Mike Flynn says:

          Except if a possible danger area is Alabama, of course – at least according to you. Then you ignore it, I suppose. Even NOAA point out that “Hazardous conditions can occur outside of the zone.”, on on their forecast.

          And of course, the “zone” only shows the assessed likelihood of the location of the centre. But dimwitted pseudoscientific GHE true believers want authorities to keep silent about what could happen. I want the authorities to let me know if severe weather conditions might occur in my vicinity.

          I live in an area subject to revolving tropical storms. If one is brewing in the area, nobody can predict its path with any certainty. As I say, take precautions – even if you live in Alabama. The EMA warned people not to be complacent. You disagree, of course with the benefit of hindsight.

          Carry on with the idiocy.


      • captain droll says:

        “It appears that POTUS is smarter than you..”
        Did you notice that POTUS is an anagram for STUPO.
        Very apt.

        • Mike Flynn says:

          It appears that POTUS is still smarter than you. He’s the President – you are not. He possibly makes even more money than you, and knows more than you do.

          Oh well.


    • Nate says:

      Yeah you’re right Mike.

      Next time you are in the projected path of a cyclone, probably its wrong, so just ignore it. Stay put. Throw something on the barbie. Have a 6 pack, of whatever, Fosters?

      • Dr Myki says:

        Drinking Fosters is not good for incontinence.

        • Mike Flynn says:

          I suppose you know this from personal experience? Maybe your Korsakoff syndrome symptoms are not due to drink. Have you another explanation?


        • Dr. Myki, horse podiatrist

          With every comment here, your apparent IQ goes down one point, and the starting point was not that high. Reading your comments over time is like watching a train wreck in slow motion, and you are the train. I can’t wait for your oh so brilliant next comment !

          • Dr Myki says:

            To some extent you are correct.
            Dealing with fools like yourself and MF does not do anything to improve my intellect.
            (fortunately it is a formidable intellect as evidenced by my title as Dr)

          • Mike Flynn says:

            Convince me that your IQ exceeds your shoe size, if you like. I doubt that you can, but I am prepared to give you the benefit of the doubt.

            All part of my responsibility to assist those less capable than myself.


      • Mike Flynn says:

        Are you only pretending to be stupid and ignorant?

        Probably not, unfortunately, if that is the best you can come up with!


        • captain droll says:

          Next time a hurricane approaches Florida I will ask STUPO to draw a loop around my house in Seattle, but using an orange crayon. How cool would that be?

          • Mike Flynn says:

            I suppose you could ask anybody you want to do anything you like. Possibly you might find somebody even dimmer than yourself to take some notice.

            Why would you willingly give somebody your orange crayon? Or is it the only colour you are allowed?

            What a fool you are! Mysterious acronyms, crayons, loops – I’m sure it all makes perfect sense to you, and others of your ilk.


          • Dr Myki says:

            Gee, this incontinent dog is peeing on everything.

          • Mike Flynn says:

            More pointless dog fixation. Why don’t you do something about it? Too stupid? Too incompetent?

            Oh dear, maybe you need to lift your game.


    • The NOAA track that President Trump held up for viewing was a prediction. Anyone involved with planning at a strategic level understands that it is prudent to extrapolate potential disasters if disaster planning is what you are doing. I saw nothing wrong at all with what the President was showing and it was only prudent, given the uncertainties associated with storm tracking, to ensure that planning considerations were given to Alabama at the point in time the original chart was displayed. To do otherwise would have been foolhardy.

      If this is what you base your assessment of President Trump on, I would suggest you do a bit more thinking about what strategic planning is all about.

      Retire Army LTC

  6. DocSiders says:

    That hurricane track that crossed the Florida peninsula and across a bit of the Gulf of Mexico and then into Alabama was produced by NOAA Weather Models. I recall seeing that track in NOAA’s “spaghetti storm track model” results.

    Early on, due to very weak directional influences, the models had a very broad range of possible tracks.

    Trump was showing the possible tracks THAT NOAA PRODUCED FOR US.

    I suspect your “Captain Droll” blog moniker, was a mistyped “Captain Troll”.

    • captain droll says:

      “Trump was showing the possible tracks THAT NOAA PRODUCED FOR US.”
      The photo shows him holding up an official map with no such tracks – except for the hand drawn marker pen addition. NOAA doesn’t produce maps made with marker pens.
      Let’s face it – the man is a fool.

      • Mike Flynn says:

        Hmmmm. If it makes no real difference, should I pay more attention to POTUS or some anonymous dimwit?

        I think I will stick with the POTUS. He spoke the truth, it seems.

        It’s strange that the pseudoscientific GHE true believers love words like might, may, could, estimated, possible, and other variations on the theme, but berate others for using those same words in a more realistic context!

        Donald Trump is POTUS, and you are just another anonymous dimwit. Your fantasy based opinions are worth nothing. Carry on whining about maps and lines, based on your unsupported assumptions.


        • Dr Myki says:

          Go right ahead and stick with STUPO and his marker pen.
          Good luck when the next hurricane approaches – I know who I would trust.

          • Mike Flynn says:

            Are you quite mad? What are you blathering about?

            Is this STUPO some secret pseudoscientific GHE true believer mystery? Is your preference for a marker pen rather than an orange crayon significant?

            Why not just look at images taken from satellites (both visible and infrared), and make naive persistence predictions? Better than using pointless long range climate models, that’s for sure!


      • Mike Flynn says:

        From Alabama EMA 29 Aug 2019 –

        “How does Dorian affect Alabama? After Labor Day and into next week, the long-range weather models have Dorian going anywhere from into the Gulf and as far west as Louisiana, to curving into the Atlantic. Learn more at” . . .

        Good old official “long range weather models”! Still, nothing wrong with preparing for the worst, and hoping for the best.

        So, are the head of the Alabama EMA, and the other organisations who received similar advice from NOAA, also fools, or are you just having a whinge?


        • Nate says:

          “The story starts on Sunday morning, at 10:51 a.m. ET, when Trump tweeted out a warning about the severity of Hurricane Dorian.
          “In addition to Florida — South Carolina, North Carolina, Georgia, and Alabama, will most likely be hit (much) harder than anticipated,” the President wrote.”

          Best not to trust any dimwits, even if they live in a white house, Mike.

          “When Trump posted his incorrect tweet on Sunday, local meteorologists like James Spann refuted it right away. Spann, a veteran Alabama forecaster who is widely respected for his coverage of tornado outbreaks, responded to Trump at 11:31 a.m. and said, ‘Alabama will not be impacted by Dorian in any way.’ ”

          “The claim got pushback from weather experts, including the Birmingham, Alabama, branch of the National Weather Service.
          “Alabama will NOT see any impacts from #Dorian. We repeat, no impacts from Hurricane #Dorian will be felt across Alabama. The system will remain too far east,” the branch tweeted.”

          • Dr Myki says:

            Exactly Nate!

            Another instance of the incontinent dog making a mess and a fool of himself.

          • Mike Flynn says:

            So you believe in being stupid, and not taking any action if there is a hurricane in the area, and NOAA projections show there is a possibility that the centre (not to mention hazardous weather some distance from the centre) may cross your state border?

            Just how stupid are you? Even NOAA know the future track is not predictable. See how their forecast track changes hour to hour.

            All of a sudden you accept that meteorological forecasts are superior to those from long range weather models. What a surprise! I suppose you also believe that weather forecasts are totally accurate? Planes never crash due to bad conditions that suddenly occurred? Thats why aircraft have things like weather radar – pilots can’t bet their lives, and those of their passengers on the absolute accuracy of a forecast even made an hour ago!

            You might be one of those nitwits who take no precautions, suffer severe damage or personal injury, and then whine about how nobody told you that hurricanes are dangerous and unpredictable, and didn’t evacuate you.

            Carry on, lad. I wish you well if you ignore the fact that nobody can accurately predict the future. At least POTUS warned that it was possible Alabamians might be affected. If you want to keep everyone in the dark and let them die, good for you.


          • Dr Myki says:

            Begone, incoherent and incontinent dog.

          • Mike Flynn says:

            Were you bitten by a rabid canine as a child, or just in awe of the intelligence of dogs?

            Or is it that dogs often mistake you for an inanimate object, and lift their legs on you?


          • Scott R says:

            Now Trump is “in trouble” for not predicting the weather correctly. The storm was originally forecasted by the models to cross Florida so…

            Trump could cure cancer and folks will say he should have done it sooner.

            Not saying he’s perfect, but geez, has there ever been a more scrutinized president?

          • Mike Flynn said in part: “So you believe in being stupid, and not taking any action if there is a hurricane in the area, and NOAA projections show there is a possibility that the centre (not to mention hazardous weather some distance from the centre) may cross your state border?” The map that Trump was holding up appears to me as the one with nominal issue time of 11 AM Thursday 8/29, nearly 72 hours before Trump made his tweet that was followed quickly by tweets from meteorologists. It looks like Alabama was not yet out of the woods as of Thursday morning 8/29, but was by 5 AM the following Sunday morning, when the National Hurricane Center issued another one of these maps that they issued at least once every 6 hours. The archive of these cone maps is at: https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/2019/DORIAN_graphics.php?product=5day_cone_no_line

          • Nate says:

            ‘I think I will stick with the POTUS. He spoke the truth, it seems.’

            This is a good illustration of how Trump defenders operate.

            They are presented the unambiguous evidence that he was wrong, that he doubled down, tripled down, lied about it, AND tried to cover it up with an obvious fraud on TV.

            They simply assert that those undeniable facts are ‘fake news’ and that the opposite is true.

          • JDHuffman says:

            Nate, did all that fiction come from your perverted imagination, or were you coached?

          • Nate says:

            Says our very own fact-denier specialist.

          • JDHuffman says:

            So the fiction is from your own perverted imagination.

            Nothing new.

          • Nate says:

            JD has learned something, as shocking as that sounds.

            He’s learned that trying to post ACTUAL rebuttals just gets him in trouble with the fact and logic police.

            So all hes got left is noise and ad-homs.

            I predict he will respond with noise and ad-homs.

          • Gordon Robertson says:

            donald…”The archive of these cone maps is at:”

            Look carefully Donald, the cone clips the SE corner of Alabama.

    • Gordon Robertson says:

      doc…”Trump was showing the possible tracks THAT NOAA PRODUCED FOR US”.

      NOAA admitted it.

      • Nate says:

        NOAA is enabling its dimwit boss…

        • Nate says:

          ‘I am proud to work for @NWS. You will not find a more dedicated bunch, committed to saving lives and helping communities, tweeted Elizabeth Leitman, a severe-weather forecaster at the Weather Services Storm Prediction Center in Norman, Okla. But I am utterly disappointed and embarrassed by our parent agencys actions today. The damage done to relationships built on trust is worrisome at best.

          Dan Sobien, president of the National Weather Services labor union, unleashed a scathing response on social media.

          I have never been so embarrassed by NOAA. What they did is just disgusting, he tweeted.

          Let me assure you the hard working employees of the NWS had nothing to do with the utterly disgusting and disingenuous tweet sent out by NOAA management tonight, he added in a separate tweet.

          former NOAA official came from David Titley, an atmospheric scientist who served as the chief operating officer of NOAA in 2012 and 2013. After reviewing NOAAs statement, he tweeted: Perhaps the darkest day ever for leadership. Dont know how they will ever look their workforce in the eye again. Moral cowardice.”

  7. David Appell says:

    But what’s the Aug/Sept SST trend since, say, 1970?

  8. JohnD says:

    If Dorian hits the islands off of NC that are connected to the mainland only by bridge, does that count as a landfall?

    • studentb says:

      Dorian now has maximum winds of 115 mph, making it a major (Category 3) hurricane again. The most recent major hurricane to make landfall in North Carolina is Fran in 1996.

      Also,it has now generated more Accumulated Cyclone Energy than 11 full Atlantic hurricane seasons since 1950: 1962, 1972, 1977, 1982, 1983, 1986, 1987, 1991, 1993, 1994 and 2013.

      (source:Philip Klotzbach)

      • JDHuffman says:

        “All subsequent hurricanes have been measured against the benchmark set by Hazel on October 15, 1954, and maybe that’s another way of saying this latest one could have been worse. As noted earlier, Hugo and Hazel were Category Four, the worst this coast has ever seen, and it should be duly noted that both Hazel and Hugo made their landfalls on the South Carolina coast.

        “Hazel came ashore at Little River, just north of Myrtle Beach, and went straight to work on Garden City, North Myrtle, Windy Hill, Cherry Grove and Ocean Drive. She sent storm surge levels through the streets between 14 and 17 feet above mean low water, and damaged or destroyed homes and piers as far south as Georgetown.”

  9. Aaron S says:

    Amazing how total storm day number dropped significantly at the turn of the century in attached paper fig 2b. Does anyone know where an up to data base is stored?


  10. Aaron S says:


    Slightly newer evaluation. They show regional patterns do vary but global trend has not changed.

  11. Aaron S says:

    I should have just googled and searched rather than going through academic search engines. This report is telling a consistent story with Roy. Not sure if this data is manipulated but it is consistent with the two papers above in peer reviewed journals where they overlap. Taken at face value the data suggests to me that storms numbers and intensity are decreasing. The very slight increase in intensity of major storms appears noise at best, and to have reversed recently and start decreasing since about 2000 (with one major exception in 16 17).

    Maybe someone can help me understand where the media is saying hurricanes are getting more intense with global warming? I can not find academic literature to support the position either.


    Certainly can not justify headlines like this:

  12. chris brandow says:

    why use only east Florida landfall for the trend? is the trend any different if you use US (Atlantic+gulf) landfall?

  13. ghalfrunt says:

    Of course only Florida matters when looking at hurricanes??????????????!!!!!!!!!!!!!

    It does not matter that:
    Late on Wednesday, the country’s health minister, Duane Sands, confirmed that the death toll had risen from seven to at least 20.

    The International Red Cross fears 45% of homes on Grand Bahama and the Abacos – some 13,000 properties – have been severely damaged or destroyed.
    Some 60,000 people will need food aid and clean water, UN officials say.

    What about lives and livelihoods washed away round the world by exceptional floods

    What about other strong winds in other locations on earth 1?

    Am I being silly?
    Should I only consider myself here in the UK? damaging winds here cost me 4 bean plants when the support bloke. Should I therefore say “WHAT PROBLEMS nothing to see here. All’s well with the world”?

    • Aaron S says:

      Well to help the world ghalfrunt, you have to identify the problem first. I see no evidence for increasing storms. Point is if you apply your sincere, good intentions to the wrong problem then you are not effectively helping. For example,population is a much bigger problem then climate change and nuclear a better solution for climate change than wind or solar. I feel good people like yourself are being misled, and the fact you are here commenting on this particular blog suggests to me that you are curious yourself.

  14. Keith Rowe says:

    Wouldn’t there be a statistical change with our ability to measure hurricane speeds. I remember recently a model was used to measure the speed of hurricane as it touched land to change it’s category one higher. Perhaps the ones in 1922 were higher but we weren’t able to measure them as well as today. Found it, it was Hurricane Michael. https://www.noaa.gov/media-release/hurricane-michael-upgraded-to-category-5-at-time-of-us-landfall

  15. Mark B says:

    There’s a nice overview of current understanding of link between tropical cyclones and global warming here:

    • JDHuffman says:

      Mark, if you want to push an extremist agenda, you should avoid mentioning hurricanes.

      Hurricanes are just one of several ways Earth can cool itself. So, even if the bogus GHE were valid, Earth can eject excess heat as easy as you can peel a banana.

  16. Aaron S says:

    Mark B,,
    IPCC has less than ideal credibility for me based on their reliance on climate models that do not work and biased presentation of data. So sharing noaa data or even nasa governmental data post obama is not a valid point. It is better to deal directly with data itself. Not to say data can not be manipulated and biased, but it is better for discussion to not add a unnecesary layer of biased interpretation.

    For example to defend why I think noaa a biased idealogy and not valid logical point i ask, why does there data stop about a decade ago on the webpage? That is biased as hell because that trend reversed and there is no excuse to keep an invalid out of date graph on a webpage. Figure one is a perfect example of the bias that hurts credibility. They are anchored on a trend that is invalid today.

    David A, anything to say against this? If not biased then why maintain invalid out of date graphs? Same with every figure from 2017 at peak of El Nino? Sharing that in 2019 is biased.

    • David Appell says:

      Here is NOAH monthly GMATs up to July 2019:


      You didn’t give a link for the site you’re writing about that is out-of-date. Why not write to NOAA and tell them?

      Would that the Web contained no out-of-date graphs. What a world that would be.

      Why do you say climate models don’t work? Exxon scientists made a model in the late 1970s, and it’s been nearly spot on. Here’s a graph of their model projection:


    • Gordon Robertson says:

      Aaron…”IPCC has less than ideal credibility for me based on their reliance on climate models that do not work and biased presentation of data”.

      That’s especially true after the IPCC stated in TAR that future climate states cannot be predicted.

      You have to read the fine print used by the shysters. They no longer ‘predict’, they ‘project’, based on different scenarios.

      Expert reviewer Vincent Gray told them the models are unvalidated hence can predict nothing. So, the IPCC changed it to project.

  17. Jack Dale says:

    Kerry Emanuel is the “go-to-guy” in hurricane research. He takes a global perspective, rather than cherry picking Florida.


  18. Which country has warmed the most since 1880 ?

    The competition to see which country has warmed the most since 1880, was a close one.

    Canada led the field by a BIG margin, for over 135 years.

    But Canada’s performance faded in the last 15 years, and Russia won by a nose.

    Russia ended up with 2.7 degrees Celsius of global warming since 1880.

    And Canada ended up in second place, with 2.6 degrees Celsius of global warming since 1880.

    How did your country or region perform in the race?

    There is only one way to find out. Click on this link:

    Please note – the judges decision is final (unless GISTEMP adjusts the temperatures again).

    • David Appell says:

      Do you know why GISS (and all other temperature reporting groups, including UAH) adjust the raw data?

      • Mike Flynn says:


        Do you know why GISS (and all other temperature reporting groups, including UAH) adjust the raw data?

        If you do, are you just trying to appear smart? Why not provide some useful information?

        If you don’t, why don’t you find out for yourself?

        Are you stupid and ignorant?


      • David.

        Yes, I understand why GISS and all of the other temperature reporting groups adjust the raw data.

        Some adjustments are necessary, for quality control, etc.

        But some adjustments are questionable. For example, GISS seems to make constant small adjustments to the temperatures before 1950. Why do they still need adjusting, over 70 years after they were measured. And the temperatures before 1950 usually get adjusted down, to make modern warming greater. Why are changes not random (equal chance of adjusting up or down)?

        • David Appell says:

          Sheldon, those are good questions.

          I’m hardly an expert on adjustments and have never wanted (or had time) to get into all the nitty gritty details — and there are some very thorough algorithms involved. I only know what others have written for nonexperts. Here Zeke Hausfather of the BEST research group explains why a systematic change in the US between when temperatures were read — late afternoon until the 1950s and early mornings after — brings about a change in the numbers that works out to a downward adjustment from about 1900 to 1970, and an upward adjustment after:

          “Understanding Time of Observation Bias,” Zeke Hausfather, 2/22/15.

          The small adjustments of long past months comes about because they must correlate temperatures today with temperatures back then, through station changes, time of day of observation changes, location changes, etc. So each new monthly data point slightly affects the correlation, which occasionally leads to changes in a month decades ago by usually a small amount.

          UAH has the same issue, and you’ll see adjustments for a month decades ago, because they must correlate readings of today with ones back on a long chain of satellites — it’s something now like 11 different satellites that have come and gone. That’s not an easy calculation by any means, especially since some satellites can just suddenly die, so how do you do a calibration between the new satellite’s readings and the old satellite’s readings when there’s no old satellite around to compare to?

          Here are two other articles that are worth reading. The second by Scott Johnson is particularly good, IMO:

          “Understanding Adjustments to Temperature Data,” BEST

          “Thorough, not thoroughly fabricated: The truth about global temperature data: How thermometer and satellite data is adjusted and why it must be done,” Scott K. Johnson, Ars Technica 1/21/16.

          • Mike Flynn says:

            The pretenders at Berekely Earth try to evade the question they pose on their FAQ page –

            “Why didn’t Berkeley Earth wait for peer review?”

            Actually, they couldn’t actually find a reputable peer reviewed journal to publish their nonsense. David claims that peer review is the gold standard. Berkeley Earth published in a predatory journal, which exists only to enrich its publishers. Berkeley Earth go to great lengths to justify being silly enough not to realise they have been taken for a ride.

            BEST’s main aim seems to be getting funding from the gullible. Even the gullible tend to keep their wallets closed when they discover they are funding pretend scientists to produce sub-standard pretend papers.

            Their stated purpose is now to is ” . . .to try to forge a new coalition between industry and environmental groups for the use of cleanly-produced natural gas as a bridging fuel to slow global warming over the next few decades with a particular focus on China.”

            Who can blame them if the Chinese Govt. fails to fall into line? BEST will no doubt “try” their little hearts out. I wish them well, and no doubt the money from the suckers will keep rolling in.


  19. Mike Flynn says:

    A really, really, stupid person would believe a newspaper reporter over a US Govt. possible hurricane track announcement.

    The NHC issued Tropical Storm Dorian Computer Models on 28 August 12:51 EDT, which clearly show one projected track of the storm centre apparently over the border of Alabama. The storm centre, with associated winds extending much further!

    Some here complain because the US President conveyed this advice to the residents of Alabama.

    These dimwits would prefer that members of the public are needlessly put at risk.

    Projections and forecasts are just that. Anybody will notice that hurricane track projections are continuously updated, as it becomes apparent that previous projections were wrong. This is normal, as Nature takes no notice of man-made assumptions.

    Facts are facts. Fantasy is fantasy.


    • captain droll says:

      “Facts are facts. Fantasy is fantasy.”
      Problem is, STUPO cannot tell the difference.

      • Mike Flynn says:

        The problem is, you have no facts! What is a STUPO? Your imaginary friend, perhaps? Part of your fantasy world?


        • Dr Myki says:

          Geez you must be the stupidest person here. The answer lies in posts above – if you can be bothered reading. Is English your second language?

          • Mike Flynn says:

            Yet more irrelevance.

            I understand. If you can’t defend the non-existent GHE, you might as well try any witless diversion you can. Luckily, you haven’t got the brains to do so effectively.


          • Dr Myki says:

            “I understand.”
            Well, hallelujah!
            You must have been a joy to teach at school – as thick as two short planks.

          • Mike Flynn says:

            I understand why you refuse to describe what a STUPO is.

            You are singularly obtuse if you cannot comprehend that your continuing stupidity makes you appear even more stupid and ignorant than you actually are.

            Thank you for pointing out that my teachers thought I was a joy to teach. Why do think short planks are necessarily thicker than long ones? Are you stupid by nature, or do you have to work at it?


          • Dr Myki says:

            You mean… you still don’t understand?
            ..and have never heard the expression “as thick as..” ?

            Your stupidity reaches greater heights with each new post. As someone once said:
            “If he were any more stupid, he would have to be watered twice a week.”

            Why not quit while you are behind?

          • Mike Flynn says:

            No, I meant what I wrote – “I understand” – that you cannot explain STUPO, or describe the GHE.

            Copying and pasting from your fantasy to reality doesn’t work.

            No explanation for STUPO , no description of the GHE. Keep on with your silly attempts at inversion.

            Others can judge for themselves.


          • Dr Myki says:

            What ?
            Still struggling?
            I cannot bear to see a dumb animal suffer , so here is a clue:
            Remember, you are the only one here who cannot see it. No pressure.

          • Mike Flynn says:

            What is a STUPO?

            A meaningless anagram?

            Try harder.


          • Dr Myki says:

            “What is a STUPO ?”
            Another clue: you are are definitely the biggest STUPO here.
            (1) You are ignorant about anagrams
            (2) You are incapable of looking up definitions
            It beats me how you can even use a keyboard.

          • Dr Myki says:

            Time to put the dumb animal out of its misery.

            If you googled “stupo” you would have found
            Someone that is stupid or is acting stupid.

            Geez that was hard work stupo!

          • Mike Flynn says:

            Dummy. I know what a stupo is.

            I asked what a STUPO is. Are you such a fool that you randomly capitalise words for no good reason; at all?

            Or have you redefined lower and upper case characters to have the same import under all circumstances?

            Keep weaseling and wriggling. NOAA has now confirmed that POTUS correctly passed the information about Florian’s possible impact on Alabama. Do you wish to be characterised as a STUPO or a stupo? I’ll just call you stupid, ignorant, juvenile and delusional.

            Carry on.


    • Gordon Robertson says:

      Mike…”Some here complain because the US President conveyed this advice to the residents of Alabama.

      These dimwits would prefer that members of the public are needlessly put at risk”.


      Watching the show from just north of the US border is quite amusing. The Democrats and the media are still fighting the last election, still outraged that Trump beat their darling Hillary. When it became clear that she had lost, I could not stop laughing.

      Hillary is about as ignorant as the day is long. She grossly insulted John Christy of UAH at a senate inquiry into global warming. John pays his own expenses to attend such inquiries to ensure no conflict of interest. She glared at him as he offered his data and sniped at him.

      I laughed with a glorious glee when she lost. Justice!!!

      Of course you warn the people of Alabama, it’s the safest and most decent thing to do. The alarm here about Trump doing that is perpetrated by the brain dead in the media who hate Trump with a venom that makes no sense for a media outlet.

      You should see what the opposition is offering:

      1)take all combustion engine vehicle off the road
      2)urging people to stop eating meat…not for health reasons or for the animals themselves…but to cut back on fossil fuel emissions
      3)stop all coal production/distribution. Coal-fired plants account for 18% of US power.

      Those three alone will assure another Democrat loss. They are far too stupid to get that.

      Hopefully, when they lose, that will be the end of political-correctness.

  20. ren says:

    A strong jetstream blow in the North Atlantic will hold Dorian on the East Coast.

  21. ren says:

    The huaragan eye came very close to Havelock (NC).

    • Dr Myki says:

      huaragan eye?

      How in hell can somebody spell so poorly?
      I suppose, as somebody once said:
      “Some drink form the fountain of knowledge, but he just gargled.”

      • Mike Flynn says:

        I see you have little tolerance for that majority of the world’s population for whom English is a second language.

        How many other languages do you speak? As many as ren?

        Dimwit. Go back to your crayons.

        By the way, check your typos – you probably meant from, rather than form. Sloppy.


      • Gordon Robertson says:

        mickey…”How in hell can somebody spell so poorly?”

        You jerk. ren is Polish and hurricane in Polish is huragan. Huaragan may be an alternate spelling, or a typo.

        Maybe he was in a hurry and wrote it in his own language. He’s miles ahead of you in intelligence, class, and helpfulness in this blog.

  22. Chuckie M says:

    Like Trump, Dr. Spencer spent a couple of days trying to figure out how to cherry pick some Hurricance data to make himself look correct. Both failed. While Trump was putting his sharpie to hurricane outlooks, Dr. Roy was finding a subset of hurricanes in a particular location that hit a particular state.

    Trump is a Cat. 5 Idiot.

    “I don’t know that I’ve ever even heard the term other than I know it’s there. That’s the ultimate, and that’s what we have unfortunately.”

    Dr. Spencer, . . .? You decide.


    • Dr Myki says:

      Like it.
      As an alternative to Category 5 idiot, people may like to chose from the following:
      The carnival has closed.
      The cheese has slid off his cracker.
      The gates are down, the lights are flashing, but the train isn’t coming.
      The smoke doesn’t make it to the top of his chimney.
      The synapses are about that far apart.
      There’s a leak in his ceiling
      Too much yardage between the goal posts.
      Vacancy on the top floor.

    • Norman says:

      Chuckie M

      You do not seem to comprehend the point that Dr. Spencer is making with posts of this nature.

      Whenever any severe weather event occurs anywhere on the planet, the media brings up Climate Change. They may put in the disclaimer that they do not know if it caused by Climate Change but the constant bombardment of severe weather connected to Climate Change creates a state of mind of impending doom. Roy Spencer just looks at the entire data set of major hurricanes hitting Florida and concludes that there is no significant change. If you pull up a larger data set of major hurricanes and show that there is a significant increase in number or intensity on a global scale then demonstrate you factual information. Otherwise your post is just a pointless attempt at appearing to know what you are talking about when in reality you are only indoctrinated by the endless droning of “fake news” media that is no longer seeking truthful information and presenting it to the Public.

      You should realize that in our modern world most people have information overload. That means the only way the media can reach a person’s mind is to sensationalize. Media news is attempting to make profit and this requires large audience to get funding from advertisements. Making weather seem to be getting much worse from Climate Change can reach the mind (like yours) and help sell advertisements. You need to be able to understand the process of how you get information and why it is sensationalized. Once you can grasp this you will be able to process the data on a more rational basis.

    • Gordon Robertson says:

      chuckie…”Dr. Spencer spent a couple of days trying to figure out how to cherry pick some Hurricance data…”

      You’re on the wrong blog, you wino. Try realclimate, skepticalscience, desmogblog, blogs that specialize in pseudo-science and dimwittery.

  23. Stitch says:

    In case you might think the full quote is less embarrassing . . .

    “We don’t even know what’s coming at us. All we know is it’s possibly the biggest. I have — I’m not sure that I’ve ever even heard of a Category 5. I knew it existed. And I’ve seen some Category 4’s — you don’t even see them that much,”

    “But a Category 5 is something that — I don’t know that I’ve ever even heard the term other than I know it’s there. That’s the ultimate, and that’s what we have unfortunately,”

    • Lou Rignall says:

      The president of the USA has never heard of a Category 5 Hurricane?

      Wasn’t Maria a 5?

      Trump is 73 years old. Just wondering how many Cat 5 storms there have been in his lifetime.

      Lou R-

      • Chas says:

        Fake news!

        President Trump never mentioned Alabama in any official written or spoken statement regarding Hurricane Dorian in word or phrase.

        Libtards . . .

      • Nate says:


        I think your fake news is more fake than mine.

        “The story starts on Sunday morning, at 10:51 a.m. ET, when Trump tweeted out a warning about the severity of Hurricane Dorian.
        ‘In addition to Florida South Carolina, North Carolina, Georgia, and Alabama, will most likely be hit (much) harder than anticipated’, the President wrote.”

        The courts has said Presidential tweets are official.

  24. Aaron S says:

    Here is his original link. Fig 1 is out of date


    Also, regarding exxon since 1960 there has been 0.8 Deg C in Noaa version of data (faster than satellite when compare same years) vs exxon anticipating 1.2 at 420 CO2.

    When i read the full document (from you a while back) I realize exxon was using the same climate sensitivity as the models for comparison. Basically, if they estimated CO2 increase and did the math correct they get same output. They openly claim the sensitivity was widely unknown. As you can see Exxon over predicted by about 30%. Right? Or where are u getting 1.2 C warming since 1960 from? I clearly think it is more like 0.8C.

  25. JK says:

    Dr. Roy, did you see this utterly ridiculous ‘op-ed’ by Michael Mann and Andrew Dessler, who warned climate change would turn more places into nightmarish hellscapes, before admitting the science has yet to come in on whether it worsened Dorian? It’s full of hellfire and brimstone and I’m wondering how he continues to get away with this anti-science.


    • professor P says:

      Note that Michael Mann is distinguished professor of atmospheric science at Pennsylvania State University. His most recent book, with Tom Toles, is The Madhouse Effect: How Climate Change Denial Is Threatening Our Planet, Destroying Our Politics, and Driving Us Crazy.

      The Madhouse effect is real – my patients here prove it.

      • Mike Flynn says:


        Michael Mann is a fraud, a faker and a phony. Claims to be a climatologist, Has precisely no climatological qualifications. No meteorological qualifications or experience. Falsely claimed to be a Nobel laureate in court documents.

        He is an incompetent fumbling bumbler, who believes he can divine historical air temperatures by looking at pieces of timber. Sued a detractor who pointed out his foolishness, and had his case dismissed.

        This is your champion? I’m surprised you don’t also appoint yourself “distinguished professor” just like your hero!

        Carry on being delusional. You may even believe you are a professor, a psychologist or psychiatrist, or even that CO2 can make thermometers hotter!


        • Dr Myki says:

          Any mention of Professor Mann is guaranteed to stimulate MF’s bladder.

          • professor P says:

            Nurse! We have another problem here with one of our patients.
            Order more incontinence pants please.

        • Mike Flynn says:

          The pseudoscientific GHE true believers lapse into incoherence.

          Typical of nutters when their fantasy is challenged by being exposed to fact.

          They have convinced themselves that fantasy is real. I wish them all the best.


          • Kolg8 says:

            Professor P,

            If I’m your patient, do you mind if I get a second opinion? Perhaps from Professor of Atmospheric Sciences (emeritus) at M.I.T., Dr. Richard Lindzen, a member of the National Academy of Sciences? And maybe a third opinion, from Dr. Judith Curry, retired Chair of the Atmospheric Sciences Department at the Georgia Institute of Technology? And a fourth, from Dr. Spencer’s colleague at the University of Alabama, Dr. John Christy?

            Anyone can cite to authority. I encourage you to apply the scientific method to Dr. Mann’s theories (hypothesis (yes), testability (X), repeatability (X) and fallibility (X)) to see if it is worthy of being deemed authoritative.

      • Gordon Robertson says:

        prof…”Note that Michael Mann is distinguished professor of atmospheric science at Pennsylvania State University…”

        Mann is a geologist…a rockhound. Distinguished my ass. He made an utter fool of himself with his hockey stick fiasco. Then he did a study of Antarctica with Stieg, in which they concluded Antarctic had warmed in the past 50 years.

        One of the stations they used for data was under 4 feet of snow. They extrapolated the warming in a small area near the tip of the Antarctic Peninsula, which is closer to South America than central Antarctica, to other temperatures in Antarctica to get the warming.

        We’re talking about the author of the trick, a ruse to hide declining temperatures. The clown caught in the Climategate email scandal trying to interfere with peer review to the detriment of skeptics.

        Of course, as an alarmist, wannabee, psychologist, I can see how you’d think a flake was distinguished.

    • David Appell says:

      The Mann & Dessler article had a lot of good links to the science and evidence….

    • Gordon Robertson says:

      JK…”did you see this utterly ridiculous op-ed by Michael Mann….”

      It’s bad enough that Mann is a geologist pretending to be a climatologist, he adds to his clown prince of climate science aura every time he tries to be intelligent.

    • Stephen P Anderson says:

      That’s called nature.

      • Entropic man says:

        Indeed. In a warmer climate the pattern of hurricanes naturally changes.

        In the Eastern Atlantic you get warmer water which makes storms more likely to form and more windshear which makes them less likely to become hurricanes. The frequency of hurricanes does not change.

        In the mid and Western Atlantic warmer water feeds more energy into hurricanes, increasing windspeeds and category. Average intensity increases, as does ACE.

        Warmer climate makes jetstreams more variable. They are more likely to extend down to hurricane latitudes and block their Westward movement. Hence they are more likely to become slow moving or stall.

        All of this happens whether the warming is natural or AGW.

        I think the warming is artificial and you think the warming is natural. The ‘new’ hurricane pattern would occur either way.

        • Stephen P Anderson says:

          I think hurricanes are remnants of the past. A few more million years and they’ll be very rare.

          • Entropic man says:

            Geography plays a part. Hurricanes and typhoons form regularly both sides of the Equator in the Pacific. They also form regularly in the North Atlantic, but I can only ever remember one in the South Atlantic.

  26. Mike Flynn says:

    “A NOAA spokesperson said: “From Wednesday, August 28, through Monday, September 2, the information provided by NOAA and the National Hurricane Center to President Trump and the wider public demonstrated that tropical-storm-force winds from Hurricane Dorian could impact Alabama. This is clearly demonstrated in Hurricane Advisories #15 through #41, which can be viewed at the following link. The Birmingham National Weather Service’s Sunday morning tweet spoke in absolute terms that were inconsistent with probabilities from the best forecast products available at the time.”

    Why was the US President at fault for alerting residents of Alabama? Because some reporters preferred fantasy to fact?

    All part of the rich tapestry of life.


    • Dr Myki says:

      Still trying to defend STUPO?
      Keep trying.

      • Dr Myki says:

        CNN reports:
        “The president of United Mine Workers of America said Wednesday that the coal industry is not “back,” despite President Donald Trump’s claims. Cecil Roberts said at an event in Washington that his message to Trump and others running for president in 2020 is: “Coal’s not back. Nobody saved the coal industry.” He said coal-fired plants are closing all over the country, calling it a “harsh reality.” ”

        Watch STUPO fix this with the aid of his black pen. He will simply draw more mines on a map!

        • Mike Flynn says:

          What are you blathering about? Is your quote relevant to anything at all, or are just claiming some imaginary ability to decide who can predict the future more accurately?

          You can’t change the past. I believe Hillary Clinton lost her bid to become POTUS. It seems that Michael Mann lost his defamation case against Tim Ball.

          Who knows what the future holds? Maybe Hillary Clinton will become President. Even a person without previous political experience can manage to do so. For someone like Hillary Clinton to lose against a novice, simply shows how incompetent and out of touch Hillary Clinton was!

          I suppose you can foresee the imaginary future in your delusional fantasy world. Good for you!

          Tell me, at what time in the future does someone come up with a useful description of the GHE, or can’t you copy and paste from fantasy into reality? You are a delusional and infantile dimwit.


      • Mike Flynn says:

        You still haven’t said what a STUPO is. Why would you think it needed defending, if it is a product of your imagination?

        Are you trying to disagree with something I quoted, but unable to provide any facts to support your disagreement? It seems so, but your predilection for stupidity and ignorance makes it hard to figure out what you are attempting.

        Could you clarify your thoughts a little?


        • Dr Myki says:

          What is a POTUS ?
          Two can play this game.

          • Mike Flynn says:

            You are playing with yourself as usual. Do you think you can manage to win?


          • Dr Myki says:

            The scoreboard says yes….. by 1.61 km (or a mile for those who prefer imperial units).

          • Mike Flynn says:

            Ahhh, yes.

            That means you also lost by 1.61 km (or a mile for those who prefer imperial units).

            This is the danger of playing with yourself too much. It may well make you blind to unfavourable outcomes.

            Pseudoscientific GHE true believers obviously play with themselves far too much on occasion. Apparently, Gavin Schmidt believes he can control the world’s temperature by playing with his big red CO2 knob. Play away, Gavin. You may not get the happy ending you hope for.


          • Dr Myki says:

            I think your immaturity is showing (again).

          • Mike Flynn says:

            Who cares what you think? I certainly don’t. Nor do more than seven billion other people, unless you can show evidence to the contrary.

            Have you been playing with yourself again?


  27. David Brewer says:

    Perhaps more signficant than changes in maximum windspeed are changes in frequency of major hurricanes in Florida.

    They put the National Hurricane Center in Miami because that was where they always seemed to strike. But almost as soon as they did, hardly any more came. Who says government programmes are ineffective?

    Major hurricanes hitting Florida, total 1870-1950: 17; total 1951-present: 5.

  28. Kolg8 says:

    Dr. Spencer,

    Thank you for conducting an empirically based analysis of these issues. There certainly is a dearth of this approach in the media (and unfortunately, in far too many people calling themselves scientists.)

    In the spirit of true science (you know, where there is transparency and important issues are debated), can I ask about your reliance on one of your data sets? Specifically, “[s]ince all of these major hurricanes made landfall in the southern half of Florida, I chose the following boxed region (22N-28N, 75W-82W) to compute area-averaged SST anomalies for all months from 1870 through 2018 . . . .”

    No doubt that the SST of that patch of ocean is relevant. But Hurricanes usually form as tropical storms much closer to the equator, or off the north east coast of South America, or even off the west coast of Africa. Isn’t the SST in the sections of ocean in which hurricanes form as relevant (or perhaps more relevant) than the section of ocean in which hurricanes make landfall?

  29. ren says:

    Solar wind speed has dropped and there are no hurricanes in the Atlantic again.

  30. ren says:

    NASA La Nia model prediction, the outerlier, has strengthened over last month.

  31. studentb says:

    Typhoon Lingling is currently on track to be the first typhoon ever observed to make landfall in North Korea.

  32. captain droll says:

    I bet Donald will claim he managed this with the aid of his magic marker pen!

    • Stephen P Anderson says:

      Yes, you’ve announced you hate Trump several times. Want a dog biscuit?

      • captain droll says:

        “Nearly a week before the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration publicly backed President Trump over its own scientists, a top NOAA official warned its staff against contradicting the president.
        In an agencywide directive sent Sept. 1 to National Weather Service personnel, hours after Trump asserted, with no evidence, that Alabama would most likely be hit (much) harder than anticipated, staff was told to only stick with official National Hurricane Center forecasts if questions arise from some national level social media posts which hit the news this afternoon.
        They were also told not to provide any opinion, according to a copy of the email obtained by The Washington Post.”

        What a pathetic creature is STUPO – hasn’t got anything more useful to do than protect his inflated ego.

        • Mike Flynn says:

          Dimwit. Trump used NHC information (you can look it up at your leisure, I posted the date and time it was issued previously).

          Now, both NWS and NHC fall under the purview of NOAA, which is a US government body. Why should the President of the US not believe information provided by NOAA? Some whining civil servants from the NWS are complaining that their boss (NOAA), and its specialist hurricane forecasting centre, provided a forecast based on computer model probabilities.

          Whether you accept it or not, the President is the head of government, commander-in-chief of the armed forces and so on. Not you, not Hillary Clinton, and certainly not any civil servant complaining that his employer asks that he does the work he is paid to do.

          Anonymous dimwits such as yourself, and your puerile attempts at gratuitous insults (or maybe you are severely dyslexic – you wrote STUPO rather than POTUS, I assume), generate more laughter than respect.

          But carry on if you must. Whether you call yourself captain, or general, or Master of the Universe, you remain the same powerless, impotent, and insanely envious wannabe as before.


          • Dr Myki says:

            Typical puerile response from a genetically damaged crackpot.
            the fact is STUPO stuffed up real bad.
            His efforts to cover his tracks reinforces most people’s opinion of him.

          • Stephen P Anderson says:

            Although that hurricane prediction model that included Alabama was accurate a few hours earlier? Stuffed up real bad? Who was harmed?

          • Stephen P Anderson says:

            CNN posted a map labeling Alabama as Mississippi during their coverage. Now that’s some real dumbassness.

          • Mike Flynn says:


            You remain as impotent as ever.

            Throw a tantrum if you wish. Run to Mommy, or threaten to hold your breath until you turn blue.

            It’s likely Trump will still be President tomorrow, and you still won’t. Boo hoo. So sad, too bad.


          • Stephen P Anderson says:


            -you wrote STUPO rather than POTUS-

            That is actually a characteristic of psycopaths-to use anagrams.

          • Stephen P Anderson says:

            Sorry, psychopaths.

          • captain droll says:

            STUPO is bad and getting worse. Michelle Cottle writes in the NYT

            The entire sideshow was reminiscent of when Mr. Trump insisted that his inauguration crowd in 2017 had been the largest in history. He not only dispatched his aides to peddle this fantasy, but also the National Park Service, responding to White House concerns, cropped official photos of the event to make the crowds look bigger.

            More troubling, Mr. Trumps inability to admit that Hillary Clinton won the popular vote in 2016 has led him to insist, without evidence, that there was widespread voter fraud in her favor. He even put together an official commission tasked with proving this. It failed. Mr. Trump nonetheless continues to spread this dangerous nonsense.

            When it comes to protecting his fragile ego, Mr. Trump can be quite firm in his convictions. The rest is subject to influence.

          • Mike Flynn says:

            And yet, Donald Trump is President of the US, and Hillary Clinton is a worn out old hag.

            And tomorrow, it seems likely that nothing will have changed.


          • Gordon Robertson says:

            stephen…”CNN posted a map labeling Alabama as Mississippi during their coverage. Now thats some real dumbassness”.

            There are some serious clowns on CNN. There whining is incessant.

  33. ren says:

    Typhoon is approaching Tokyo.

  34. captain droll says:

    Anthony Scaramucci said the President’s insistence Hurricane Dorian was heading for Alabama (despite the words of his own scientists) was proof of a frail ego.

    “Again, it’s his inability to ever be wrong about anything or ever to apologise for anything, It basically has to do with very low self-esteem,” he said.
    “I mean the poor guy has the self-esteem of a small pigeon’

    POTUS= pigeon of the United States

    • Mike Flynn says:

      And yet, the President is the President, and Scaramucci is not.

      Nor is anybody else. Obviously, self esteem is not a requirement for being President, if Scaramucci is right. How would you measure self esteem?

      Carry on.


  35. Ken Gregory says:

    The sea surface temperature rise of the area SE of Florida that Spencer used was;
    1879-2018; 0.19 ± 0.005 °C/decade,
    1950-2018; 0.32 °C/decade,
    both at 1-sigma, 68.3% confidence interval.
    The wind speed change per °C was 13.5 ± 15.4 knots/°C of SST warming. Multiplying the 1950-2018 warming trend by the wind speed change/°C gives 0.43 ± 0.53 knots/decade (0.50 ± 0.61 mph/decade), which is statistically insignificant at the 1-sigma confidence level.
    Spencer didn’t give an uncertainty range. I calculated that using the formula given http://www.met.rdg.ac.uk/~swrhgnrj/combining_errors.pdf formulas (12).
    For a = bc, (Δa/a)^2 = (Δb/b)^2 + (Δc/c)^2.

  36. John says:

    A report on the BBC website based on a paper available behind a paywall https://www.pnas.org/content/early/2019/11/05/1912277116
    This is quoted from the BBC website:
    ”The authors found that the frequency of the most damaging hurricanes had increased by a rate of 330% per century.
    And they believe that is mainly due to rising temperatures.”

    I would appreciate people’s thoughts on this, especially since Dr. Spencer , Roger Pielke jr and even the IPCC say that this is not the case.

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