Home/BlogNow this is getting interesting!
Tucker Carlson is, as I type, interviewing one of the COVID-19 researchers from Stanford, who is quoting the new French study that shows (he says) a 100% cure rate using hydroxychloroquine. (I don’t know if my pestering of my contact at FoxNews helped instigate the coverage, I sent him the earlier Stanford-led research report that use China and S. Korea results with the drug).
The Stanford researcher said that Trump has authorized mass buys (I think that’s what he said) of the drug.
Here’s the website with the latest results. Could be a Big Let-Down for Big Pharma, which I’m sure wants to produce a variety of treatments and vaccines.
I expect this story will evolve rapidly in the coming days.
Dr. Spencer,
I hope this drug works, time will tell.
Im sure China came up with trying this drug based on some reasoning. I doubt they randomly picked drugs to try. This is not to say drug will work, trials are needed. However for people on their deathbed it is hard to tell them Wait for the trial to end in 30 days when they are expected to only live 2 days.
Who are you to be giving suggestions about medical treatment. POTUS is providing dangerous false hope when he should be ACTING to keep people at home until testing is available.
Well, aren’t you being a politically partisan jackass? Hydroxychloroquine along with Azithromicin and zinc have now been used successfully by thousands of doctors in Korea, China, Europe and the USA. That combination has very, very few side effects, too. So don’t you feel like a FOOL?
Roy Spencer
If hydroxychloroquine can actually effectively treat the disease that would be a Godsend. Hopefully they can figure it out soon to save the ailing economy.
I did read some of the study. The only problem is that it takes 6 days for people to recover. It think that is about the same time it takes someone to recover if they just stay home. I am wondering if it can prevent sliding into the much more lethal trajectory of Coronavirus attacks on the lungs.
And the trial involved 40 patients, so you pretty much expect a 100% recovery rate anyway.
I saw the Tucker Carlson interview with the Stanford guy and thought the latter an idiot. But it seems there are other indications that chloroquine actually does help.
Mike M,
The French study, while small, looks pretty solid…. the differences between untreated and control groups are substantial. See: https://www.mediterranee-infection.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/03/Hydroxychloroquine_final_DOI_IJAA.pdf
It could be a fluke, or a placebo effect, but that seems unlikely. Add the earlier studies on chlorquine inhibiting other coronaviruses the infect people (in vitro and in animal testing), and the weight of the evidence is now pretty strong.
My wife take hydroxy chloroquine for arthritis, and the pharmacy where her prescription was filled said the material is now on back-order…… no surprise there.
thanks for the link and thanks to Roy Spencer for pushing this at national level.
A very small study and poor controls but certainly enough to justify a larger well controlled test.
In view of the fact it is already an approved drug and against destroying the economy this should be rolled out ASAP.
Looks like Trump is behind the idea, even if journalists don’t want it to spoil their revenue chain of headlines.
The elderly who have a substantial risk of death should get first dibs on this.
Roy Spencer
Your ‘Big pharma’ hint ironically does not quite reflect what currently happens.
The firm most involved in SARS-CoV2 vaccine research is CureVac, domiciliated in Tuebingen, Germany.
It is now impossible to make a distinction between fake news and reality, but according to the German government itself, there have been strong contacts between CureVac and the US government with as goal a vaccine for SARS-CoV2 prevention exclusively dedicated to the US.
*
Apart from that, I am aware of French results:
https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0924857920300662?via%3Dihub
and I definitely would enjoy this chloroquine becoming a real help against this epidemic (or better, with now over 170 of 195 countries affected: pandemic).
But… the authors proposed that 20 years ago!
My humble question therefore is: why is that miraculous stuff still not in use all around the world?
Rgds
J.-P. D.
I forgot to mention CureVac’s size: 450 employees, turnover of about 12 million euros; that’s ‘Big Pharma’ indeed, compared with e.g Glaxo Smith Kline or the like…
We used this in the military in the 70’s when deployed to tropical locations. If you had a tan, it would bleach out your tan within a couple of days !
It is in use all around the world. It can be found in Schweps Tonic water. Tonic and Gin was a staple for expats in the tropics.
It isn’t the drug alone. You have to take in ZINC, in diet or supplements. The drug produces an ability of the Zinc to penetrate the cells. The zinc makes it impossible for the virus to use the cell to replicate. Zinc Gluconate is the ingredient used in Zicam and Cold-ease products to reduce the symptoms, and shorten the duration of a cold virus.
Yes, HCQ holds the door open for zinc to go in (intracellular) and do it’s job.
Have you noticed that loss of sense of taste and smell are symptoms of both CoViD and zinc deficiency?
I’d venture a guess that those who are hard(est) hit by CoViD are zinc deficient and those who remain asymptomatic have abundant zinc resources.
Yes, and I’m getting sick and tired of all hospitalist and big pharma nay-sayers who keep caterwauling “HCQ doesn’t work, isn’t for viruses, didn’t save anyone”, blah blah .. while ignoring any mention of zinc altogether. Worse, some are giving HCQ only after a person is already on a ventilator and about to die. That’s just absurd!
As you say, ZINC is the the actual substance that interferes with virus RNA replication.
And it appears to be an “equal opportunity” virus destroyer – not just for covid 19! They knew the power of zinc to take out corona virus 10 years ago!
https://journals.plos.org/plospathogens/article?id=10.1371/journal.ppat.1001176
“Increasing the intracellular Zn2+ concentration with zinc-ionophores like pyrithione (PT) can efficiently impair the replication of a variety of RNA viruses, including poliovirus and influenza virus. For some viruses this effect has been attributed to interference with viral polyprotein processing. In this study we demonstrate that the combination of Zn2+ and PT at low concentrations (2 M Zn2+ and 2 M PT) inhibits the replication of SARS-coronavirus (SARS-CoV) and equine arteritis virus (EAV) in cell culture.”
Not only viruses .. cancer too! https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC4182877/
“We have previously reported that zinc ions exhibit anticancer activity by altering lysosome membrane permeability [15] and via gene expression regulation [16]. Zinc binding compounds, especially zinc ionophores, are a new group of potential anticancer agents that target zinc to the lysosomes and induce lysosome-mediated apoptosis of cancer cells [17].”
Yeah, it’s not like this is new knowledge.
https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC1232869/
Since Temperature increase decreases spread of Coronavirus, wouldn’t CO2 help the long term situation?
https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=3551767
Adelaida
The Polish Press Agency reports that in China, patients are given plasma from cured people who have developed antibodies.
First, plasma with antibodies must be given to doctors because in Italy many doctors have become infected.
More information below.
https://judithcurry.com/2020/03/14/coronavirus-discussion-thread/
“the new French study that shows (he says) a 100% cure rate using hydroxychloroquine.”
–
Oh, if only.
The drug is for malaria treatment, not viruses.
It is extremely unlikely to work on a virus.
I hope I am wrong.
It is extremely unlikely to work on a virus.
The rationale is that chloroquine is also a zinc ionophore and that increased intracellular zinc levels inactivate one of the key RNA enzymes used by the virus. Chloroquine has also been reported as known for some time to posess some antiviral properties.
The evidence, such as it is, seems to be coming out of Korea and China, with reports that it really is helping patients. We will see, but it certainly seems to be something that should be loked at very seriously and very quickly.
Unfortunately, over at WUWT, many of the readers are now confusing chloroquine with quinine itself and think that quinine is also a treatment for Covid19. Considering the respective structures of the molecules I consider it unlikely that quinine is also a useful zinc ionophore.
Seems that you are wrong ! 😉
You are wrong. First off, malaria is caused by a virus. But how chloroquine works, is that it allows zinc in your cells, to stop the RNA replicase, the enzyme the virus produces to replicate itself. Watch the Med-Cram lecture. Chloroquine and hydroxychloroquine are zinc ionophores, meaning, they help zinc get into the the virus, stopping it from reproducing. You must not be zinc deficient in the first place, so take a multivitamin with zinc and eat zinc-rich foods. I asked my doc and he prescribed it for me weeks ago before all the supplies ran out across the country. I am grateful since I have viral-induced asthma. These two zinc ionophores should be made WIDELY available to at risk people!! The fact that Big Pharma wants to likely jack the price and control the inventory is SHAMEFUL but expected in a country that always places Profit Above People.
Malaria is not caused by a virus, but by a plasmodium. A single celled parasite.
I have to praise Germany for mass tests. This can be seen in the low number of deaths.
Plasma can be taken from people who have had the infection without any symptoms. You need to learn quickly from the Chinese.
Plasma of those who have recovered may be a temporary vaccine for the highest risk groups.
I note that almost 70,000 people have already been cured in China.
I remind you that the word SARS appears in the name of the virus and it is not influenza.
They are all corona viruses.
I think that over 100,000 people can get infected in Italy. It can be similar in Spain. You should quickly use all the possibilities of modern medicine.
Jonova has covered the virus extensively.
The chloroquine mechanism seems to facilitate Zinc ingress into the cell itself ( ie just Zinc tablets won’t work):
“…inside the cells zinc stops a major viral protein from copying the virus. Chloroquine is a zinc ionophore — it opens the ion gates and pumps zinc into the cell, just what we want if we have virus trying to take over the cellular machinery. ”
Nice YouTube …
http://joannenova.com.au/2020/03/antiviral-drugs-antimalarials-and-anti-hiv-may-be-useful/
Korean mortality response is remarkable regardless that there may be be conflating factors.
You can slowly suck zinc tablets. Large doses of vitamin C, melatonin and coenzyme Q10 can be taken as powerful antioxidants.
I agree ren. Also raw honey, a natural antibiotic, and lugol’s iodine, which kills all virus.
Yes, Chloroquine is a cheap & safe anti-malaria drug The Chinese have found it safe and very effective to treat COVID-19 associated pneumonia which is the serious stage of the disease few get to .. Chinese have been using it for over a month successfully
Interestingly though, the malaria protozoan are resistant to Chloroquine and the stocks sit unused
Malaria infection rates average about 400 per 1000 in Uganda and about 300 children 5 or younger die daily from malaria or rotavirus .. but no coronavirus yet and it does not spread well in warm humid humid climate
In hospitalized adult patients with severe Covid-19, no benefit was observed with lopinavirritonavir treatment beyond standard care. Future trials in patients with severe illness may help to confirm or exclude the possibility of a treatment benefit. (Funded by Major Projects of National Science and Technology on New Drug Creation and Development and others; Chinese Clinical Trial Register number, ChiCTR2000029308. opens in new tab.)
https://www.nejm.org/doi/full/10.1056/NEJMoa2001282?query=featured_home
Dr. Specer, in The Netherlands, University of Nijmegen, perform now test with TBC-vaccin (BCG-vaccin)to boost up immunity on nurses (500 people with vaccin and 500 with placebo).
http://Www.radboudumc.nl
You must act immediately. It is better to use preparations that are made from plasma. They can be obtained from people who have recovered. Treatment must be as early, as possible at an early stage.
If treatment is already undertaken in severe cases, we lose control over pneumonia.
Based on what evidence?
Based on what happens to patients in Italian hospitals.
I read that Elon Musk is suggesting this malaria drug as a coronavirus cure. He has very loyal fans Im sure that will help push doctors to try it.
Big Pharma has no incentive to try it since it is cheap generic drug. They have an incentive to actually stop its use though and replace it with less effective, expensive drug.
Problem is that government moves at a snails pace. Pharma companies move much faster.
You must try to treat and administer antiviral drugs as soon as possible. In severe cases, they are no longer as effective.
From a news search on Google for “hydroxychloroquine” there were 30 articles on the first page of hits, and all were positive except for this one:
The New York Times
A Promising Treatment for Coronavirus Fails
A number of hospitals were giving coronavirus patients hydroxychloroquine, an old, inexpensive and relatively safe malaria drug that lab …
Sort of tells you all you need to know about the New York Times.
Steve, the nyt story was accurate. Dont know what youre on about..
That was a trial Kaletra, the HIV antiviral. The chloroquine trial has not yet been reported, it was right behind that one. Possibly makes you think the CHLQ patients are doing better, thus taking a bit more to get enough events to report. Hopefully we will see an initial answer soon. At least 4 national expert panels recommend CHLQ or HCQ was treatment.
March 19, 2020 at 8:25 PM
…the nyt story was accurate. Dont know what youre on about..
The Times is pay-walled for me so I only see the headline, and the headline is what most people see, and the headline implies that hydroxychloroquine failed as a treatment for COVID-19.
A lie and wishful thinking from the NYT. The wishful thinking part is my opinion and hence my comment. The NYT harbors more than a few left-wing zealots who want Trump to fail, and finding a treatment for COVID-19 from the Trump administration doesn’t fit that narrative – so they lie about it.
All you need to know is that the NYT doesn’t report the truth.
“A Promising Treatment for Coronavirus Fails”
‘ the headline implies that hydroxychloroquine failed’
Huh? Youre nuts..
“A lie and wishful thinking from the NYT”
Totally false. Only in your twisted conspiratorial imagination.
Good video
Both chloroquine and hydroxychloroquine appear to be zinc ionophores. It is the zinc that interferes with a virus. The Corona Virus is an RNA virus. When a virus goes into the cytosol, the ribosomes which read the code of the mRNA can’t tell the difference between the virus RNA and cellular RNA. So, as the ribosomes read the viral RNA they make an RNA dependent RNA polymerase (Replicase) that replicates the viral RNA. It’s a nasty son of a bitch. Zn(2+) will interfere with Replicase. However, zinc doesn’t readily transport inside the cell but, a zinc ionophore helps zinc move inside the cell. So, not only do you need to take the ionophore but you need to take zinc.
Fantastic summary! Youre spot on.
Hopefully, Trump can get this rapidly through the testing and get it to the market. Also, probably the making of the product there will be some hiccups.
Breadth of concomitant immune responses prior to patient recovery: a case report of non-severe COVID-19
https://www.nature.com/articles/s41591-020-0819-2
The study said they gave patients a combination of TWO drugs, HCQ and Azithromycin (an antibiotic), who were virologically cured within 6 days of treatment.
Yes, they’re saying the Z-pack has an anti-inflammatory property for viral pneumonia. Also, another drug, Remdesivir, appears to interfere with the Corona Virus Replicase, the same as Zn.
Zinc’s going to become a very valuable commodity.
Are you sure there will be time enough to experiment?
Search for Worldometers using Google (the link is refused by the blog, and its tinyURL is as well); on the page, look for the country list.
Sort the list by descending ‘New cases’, do the same when clicking on ‘Yesterday’, and compare.
One week ago, US was inexistent in the list.
Try to get informed about what happens in Italy.
J.-P. D.
Hopefully, Trump will override the FDA. I think he will.
This thread shows that the less we know the more likely we are to offer an excellent advice. The parallel to Climate Change is striking.
Lol!
Allow me to correct you. The credo for all denialists here reads:
“The less we know the more likely we are to IMAGINE WE offer excellent advice. ”
In order to get even more excellent advice, you should all have surgery to remove half your brains. You would then know even less.
PRof P.
Editing your last sentence.
You would then imagine you know twice as much.
Having had the operation I offer this: Don’t git sik in first place. Be healthy, stay healthy.
read my comment on the former thread about coronavirus:
https://www.drroyspencer.com/2020/03/some-covid-19-vs-malaria-numbers-countries-with-malaria-have-virtually-no-coronavirus-cases-reported/#comment-448374
No other respiratory pathogens were detected. Her management was intravenous fluid rehydration without supplemental oxygenation. No antibiotics, steroids or antiviral agents were administered. Chest radiography demonstrated bi-basal infiltrates at day 5 that cleared on day 10 (Fig. 1b). She was discharged to home isolation on day 11. Her symptoms resolved completely by day 13, and she remained well at day 20, with progressive increases in plasma SARS-CoV-2-binding IgM and IgG antibodies from day 7 until day 20 (Fig. 1c and Extended Data Fig. 1).
https://www.nature.com/articles/s41591-020-0819-2
The part for which I haven’t found an answer is whether I should take the drug: proactively, after I’ve been tested positive, or, when I am deathly ill and grasping at any hope.
Any optimism must be beaten down immediately.
Curious to see for myself..
The article is Not about HCQ.
https://www.nytimes.com/2020/03/18/health/coronavirus-antiviral-drugs-fail.html
Ooops! I posted my last comment in the wrong thread:
http://www.drroyspencer.com/2020/03/some-covid-19-vs-malaria-numbers-countries-with-malaria-have-virtually-no-coronavirus-cases-reported/#comment-448628
Good luck!
J.-P. D.
From Jenny Ruhl, Author of Blood Sugar 101
7 hrs ·
Rumors are claiming that an anti-malarial drug hydroxychoroquine sulfate, (or a closely related drug, chloroquine), is a cure for COVID-19. The president just claimed it would be made available immediately. Unfortunately, the evidence shows these drugs may be VERY dangerous for people with diabetes or heart disease.
I have provided a link to the official FDA label for hydroxychloroquine suflate. I urge you to read the “WARNINGS” sectiont. It is very disturbing.
The drug is counter-indicated in anyone who has any retinopathy, because it can cause permanent blindness.
It can cause serious heart rate disturbances, some fatal, and when combined with some other drugs, this effect is much stronger. .
In addition, this drug, like all antimalarials of its class can cause permanent deafness and permanent ringing in the ears.
It was administered with the antibiotic azithromycin in the very small study that is being used to claim it is effective for COVID-19, which is another drug that can cause permanent deafness and tinnitus.
It can build up to toxic levels in people who have liver disease or are heavy drinkers.
It can cause severe attacks of psoriasis in people who have that condition.
It can also cause severe hypos both in people who are taking diabetes drugs and people who are NOT taking them.
In short, while this drug may be useful in people facing imminent death, it is not a drug that can be widely prescribed to the general population without careful surveillance by medical staff.
So please, do not join the ranks of politically-motivated trolls who I have already encountered online claiming that “The cure has been found.”
https://www.accessdata.fda.gov/…/…/009768s037s045s047lbl.pdf
UPDATE: Medscape reports (Link in my comment below):
Moreover, chloroquine is not listed among the four treatments studied as part of the recently launched European clinical trial piloted by Inserm, which includes 3200 severe hospitalised patients, including 800 French patients.
Chloroquine was ruled out due to the risk of interactions with other medications for common comorbidities in infected patients, and because of possible adverse effects in patients undergoing resuscitation.
I have been using Hydroxychloroquine (Plaquenil) 400 mg for 5 years for Rheumatoid Arthritis
With no side effects
under a doctors supervision, yes?
When Covid-2019 causes severe pneumonia in people over 60, only prayer remains.
Hi Philip,
I live in the Italian “Red Zone” and heard a lot of idiocies from the people who should handle this emergency.
I also have my personal hypothesis on why, while the WHO says that we are the ones who are doing better the task (yes, probably for the statistical point of view we are the best), instead we got the highest death rate despite we should have learnt from chinese who went one month before on this issue.
One of the leaders of the taskforce of our civil defence said more or less what Jenny Ruhl argues, when 2 nights ago he declared that to get any useful medication we should wait at least till september, and he added that this was because of the needed safety validation tests, and this was a well doing if this was a usual time, and we wasn’t experiencing a bunch of deaths, NOW!
Yes, there is not the “miracle drug”, but if the hydroxychoroquine sulfate save even only one life, it must be used now and not later.
Now here People are dying
My grandfather used that drug during WWII and survived without any illness linkable to it.
In case someone didn’t get it: I repeat, here people is dying, really.
My worries are about the incompetence of the people who are handling this emergency. To get the WHO highly appreciated statistics, once the very first infected people have been discovered, these incompetents recalled all the people they just met to make the tests to them too, all in the same places without any protection aids.
And for some days in february, all the people experiencing high fever had their coronavirus tests waiting all together in tents outside the E.R.
I ask myself, what could happen if ten people all together with high fever had for example nine the flu and one the coronavirus?
My guess is: 10 people with the flu and the coronavirus at the same time, if this could be true isn’t this insane?
In my opinion these incompetents cross infected those people and generated the issue.
God save us, it’s our last chance.
Of course, I’m no way saying here that the hydroxychoroquine sulfate should be sold by the pharmacist to anyone, it should be administered by the doctors at the patients hospitalized in the intensive care department rooms.
This drug is only effective in the early stages of the disease when the lungs are not heavily attacked. Why not use the plasma of those who have recovered, if this could be the only rescue?
If you do not manage to develop antibodies, that no drug will help.
I cordially greet.
I’m not telling to stop other research. I’m saying that since people are dying NOW, one should do all it is available to save also just one more life.
I know that against viruses the only solution is develop antibodies, but I’m a little dubious about the use of plasma of those who have recovered.
Being an electronic engineer, I studied second orders and above feedback systems, as per what I learnt, most of what it has been theorized in that context it was done trying to emulate the human functions.
We are “made of feedback controls”, if you put in one patient exogenic antibodies, I suspect that you reduce the endogenic antibodies production, because those antibodies are injiected into the control loop. In fact most vaccines work the other way inoculating in the body dead or weakened viruses.
With that I’m not saying don’t try, it could work but all the viruses must be defeated by the exogenic plasma, if the supply of that plasma is stopped before all the viruses are dead, I suspect the patient will be in the mercy of the remaining viruses because the endogenic antibodies production could be reduced by this procedure.
Gain, these are just ilations. I’m just an engineer not a M.D.
Have a nice day
Massimo
The body must have time to produce antibodies before the pneumonia, which occurs with Covid-19 very quickly. Plasma preparations are often used in medicine. I know because I gave honorary almost 40 liters of blood.
I think we have more modern laboratories than during the Spanish flu. I might be wrong?
Hi ren,
maybe I’ve been not clear. But using plasma is the first time (that I know) that we are trying to fight viruses weakening the immunitary system suppressing the immunitary system. Till today, vaccines did the contrary.
Again, I’m not contrary to try it, but I only hope that in case the doctors discovered that it doesn’t work, they immediately stops this procedure without killing other people.
Maybe you are not aware of what it is really happening here.
Once a patient entered the hospital he/she is in the hands of the doctors and there is no way to contact him/her other than via the cellphone (in case he/she is coscient, of course).
Some of our fundamental constitutional rights have been suspended and let me express my worry when I read something that looks me not really logical.
Of course, I would be very glad to read from someone a rational explanation that I’m wrong and that there is a good reason to try this to save our lives.
Have a great day.
Massimo
Jenny Ruhl is ignorant of the multiple studies completed and underway in China and other countries in the far east now including ’00s of patients.
South Korea and China have been routinely treating severe cases of Covid-19 with Chloroquine or Hydroxychloroquine since February.
This may be a contributing factor to the mortality rate which in South Korea is 0.5% while in Italy in 4.7%, perhaps someone could suggest what else makes a Covid-19 patient in Italy 9 times more likely to die.
You are wrong about this. The treatment w/Hydroxychloroquine & azithromycin is only for 6 days.
There are 1.5 billion people around the world that took chloroquine or its derivatives for targeted therapies in last 50 years.
Long term use is limited to RA & as a malarial prophylactic. Not sure why a CVD & diabetic patient would even take them long term 🤔
Green Tea EGCG & Quercetin are also Zinc ionophores. I take 25 mg chelated Zinc till my chloroquine arrives. Hope I am uploading enough Zinc to disrupt the RNA enzymes so it will disrupt this horrific Covid19 mofo 🦠😷
Thank you for shedding the light on the pathway which I was spending much time on.
Thank you Stephen Paul Anderson. Green Tea EGCG & Quercetin are zinc ionophores & I am taking chelated Zinc 25 mg/day followed by Green Tea. Any recommendation on which type of Zinc. 🙏
Jay,
Chelated is ALWAYS best bc that means that it’s best metabolized!
What happened? Were we abandoned? https://www.drroyspencer.com/2019/11/
“Or, on a spiritual level, a human who desires to worship something must ultimately choose between the Creation or the Creator. There is no third option. I find that most Earth scientists are nature worshipers (showing various levels of fervor) and consider the Earth to be fragile. In contrast, those who believe the Earth was created for the purpose of serving humanity tend to view nature as being resilient and less sensitive to lasting damage. Both of these views have equally religious underpinnings since “fragile” and “resilient” are emotive and qualitative, rather than scientific, terms.”
In summary, we have found that patients with COVID-19 are prone to digestive symptoms and nearly half report a digestive symptom as their chief complaint. In rare instances, patient can even present with digestive symptoms in the absence of respiratory
symptoms.
Compared to COVID-19 patients without digestive symptoms, those with digestive symptoms have a longer time from onset to admission and a worse clinical outcome.
These results obligate additional research evaluating the prevalence, incidence, predictors, and outcomes of digestive symptoms in this still emerging pandemic.
https://journals.lww.com/ajg/Pages/default.aspx
I’m sorry but I must assume that you are not a physician?? The side effects you are mentioning are not only very highly unlikely, with less than I believe 1% of patients who have taken it long term), and although such risks are in fact “possible”, they are also highly improbable! Furthermore, they are shown to occur only after LONGTERM use of the drug (ie decades of use & certainly not seen in a week’s use!). Additionally, these side effects are demonstrated to be very much dose dependent. Meaning, it would likely take about 10 years or longer of high dose use of the drug before any of such symptoms will likely show their ugly heads. Very highly unlikely will short term use cause any of such symptoms you have described. And if you were to look up ANY other medication, say Tylenol for example, you would quickly notice significantly worse “possible side effects.” Simply put, in medicine we call this “risk vs. reward;” and I trust that we could pretty much all agree that the “risk” of possible death without the use of plaquenil is certainly worth the “reward” of likely survival with its short-term use! The risks of their use are are undoubtedly on the MUCH lower end of the spectrum in such cases my friend!
That’s what the zpak is given for!:))
Very insightful thinking!!!
This 1st comment was in response to Philip!
Philip,
Im sorry but I must assume that you are not a physician?? The side effects you are mentioning are not only very highly unlikely, with less than I believe 1% of patients who have taken it long term), and although such risks are in fact possible, they are also highly improbable! Furthermore, they are shown to occur only after LONGTERM use of the drug (ie decades of use & certainly not seen in a weeks use!). Additionally, these side effects are demonstrated to be very much dose dependent. Meaning, it would likely take about 10 years or longer of high dose use of the drug before any of such symptoms will likely show their ugly heads. Very highly unlikely will short term use cause any of such symptoms you have described. And if you were to look up ANY other medication, say Tylenol for example, you would quickly notice significantly worse possible side effects. Simply put, in medicine we call this risk vs. reward; and I trust that we could pretty much all agree that the risk of possible death without the use of plaquenil is certainly worth the reward of likely survival with its short-term use! The risks of their use are are undoubtedly on the MUCH lower end of the spectrum in such cases my friend!
BERGAMO – A war theater image: in the center of Bergamo. A long column of military vehicles stops in via Borgo Palazzo – a few hundred meters from the cemetery. They are the army vans used to transport the coffins from the Bergamo cemetery to the crematoria of other regions.
The reason, as is now known, is that the mortuary in Bergamo has not been able to accommodate the coffin of coronavirus victims for days. And the same goes for the crematorium (there is only one in town, it is active 24 hours a day). Ever since Covid-19 began to mow down the Italian Wuhan – Bergamo remains the most affected province in the country so far – cemetery services and funeral agencies have gone haywire.
To relieve the mortuary of the cemetery – with no more space available – it had been necessary in recent days to line up the coffins of the deceased in the church of Ognissanti, inside the cemetery. Since yesterday, the solution identified to deal with the emergency has been the use of army vehicles. Coronavirus victims are transported to other regions: starting from Emilia Romagna. The first shipments of the coffins were in Modena.
> Lombardy, Fontana’s dramatic appeal: “Stay home, soon we will no longer be able to help those who get sick”.
https://www.repubblica.it/cronaca/2020/03/18/foto/bergamo_non_c_e_piu_posto_70_mezzi_militari_portano_le_salme_fuori_dalla_regione-251650969/1/?ref=fbpr&fbclid=IwAR2zUPrDwk4PEHzBwSku5G39TNT3xHjVi41G018bGohhKpONh4MPzHpOELU#1
I think its premature to get too excited about this drug as a white knight coming to the rescue, as Trump and his gut instinct, clearly is.
While actual scientist, Fauci, has tried to temper that excitement, and say that we really dont have the data, and we really need to get that first before getting to excited.
Its a mistake because the message from the govt should be that all the other mitigation measures people and states are taking needs to go full steam ahead. No one should assume that they can relax because this drug is coming soon!
And Im surprised that Roy, as a scientist, in this instance, is not being more cautious about something without sufficient data to back it up.
Nate
I agree 100 % .
I think you both are wrong and Roy is right. The medicine is cheap and won’t kill. What are we loosing if it does not work? If the medicine works 15 percent of the time, that is a good reason to use it at this time and keep working on the matter.
I absolutely agree with you Nabil Swedan.
I can’t believe that a true researcher would relax just because a politician made a choice and tried to reassure the citizens. The same doctors talk about keeping high the moral to help the immunitary system fighting the hepidemy, but here in Italy the politicians does the contrary.
There is no hope in most of us who don’t look at the researches in the internet.
Every night we got the civil defence press conference on TV just to know the infected and died of the day, and every day the only message is “don’t leave your homes” which is the easiest and medieval way to solve the problem for a politician.
From the civil defence department (which sinked billions of Euros in last 20 years) I expected to have an emergency strategy which comprised at least a stock of medicinals and masks, but they don’t.
Here people are dying alone in an hospital bed without having neither the comfort of having his/her close relatives to see them for the last time.
Yesterday night a friend of mine communicated me that her dad is died after a week alone in hospital. She neither have the right to give her father a funeral. And she is still lucky, because being a christian she has still the right to have her father buried in the family crypt, many in Bergamo had their loved ones creamed without any consent.
Even one life saved is a success here.
Have a great day.
Massimo
Massimo, God bless and stay safe. Try to get some hydroxychloroquine to protect yourself and your loved ones.
Treatment Guidelines from South Korea[7]
If patients are young, healthy, and have mild symptoms without underlying conditions, doctors can observe them without antiviral treatment;
If more than 10 days have passed since the onset of the illness and the symptoms are mild, physicians do not have to start an antiviral medication;
However, if patients are old or have underlying conditions with serious symptoms, physicians should consider an antiviral treatment. If they decide to use the antiviral therapy, they should start the administration as soon as possible: chloroquine 500mg orally per day.
As chloroquine is not available in Korea, doctors could consider hydroxychloroquine 400mg orally per day (Hydroxychloroquine is an analog of chloroquine used against malaria, autoimmune disorders, etc. It is widely available as well).
The treatment is suitable for 7 10 days, which can be shortened or extended depending on clinical progress. Notably, the guidelines mention other antivirals as further lines of defense, including anti-HIV drugs.
Governments are incompetent for a very simple reason. They mostly attract incompetent people who are incapable of doing anything. They are just waiting to retire and receive a pension. Take responsibility for yourself, no one else will.
“the idea that the old malaria drugs could work against the coronavirus has circulated widely in recent weeks and fueled shortages that have already left people rushing to fill their prescriptions.
‘Rheumatologists are furious about the hype going on over this drug,’ said Dr. Michael Lockshin, of the Hospital for Special Surgery in Manhattan. ‘There is a run on it and we’re getting calls every few minutes, literally, from patients who are trying to stay on the drug and finding it in short supply.’
“Hydroxychloroquine is especially important for people with lupus, which can be life-threatening, Dr. Lockshin said. The drug can lower the risk of dying from lupus and prevent organ damage, and is considered the standard of care. If patients stop taking it after using it regularly for a long time, they can gradually become quite ill. He said it was particularly disturbing to think that people known to benefit from the drug could lose access to it because it is being diverted to a disease for which there is no solid evidence that it actually works.”
“Dana Olita, 50, of Los Angeles, raced Thursday and Friday to refill her prescription for hydroxychloroquine, which she has taken for a decade to treat rheumatoid arthritis. Her pharmacist at CVS initially told her it was unavailable” –NYT
Make more of the cheap stuff and fill pharmacies.
Massimo,
Your country could use all the help and hope it can get right now. No doubt about that.
“I cant believe that a true researcher would relax just because a politician made a choice and tried to reassure the citizens.”
My concern is not that researchers will relax, it is that some of the public will relax and stop taking the lockdown orders seriously.
Hi Nate,
the problem here is mainly in the ways the lockdown have been requested.
Some people had felt that the government is lead by bureaucrats without any clue on how to handle an emergency.
Some of the public are relaxed because for a month or more the very same who now calls for apply their lockdown orders jocked with the issue such it was something really under control and for that, now they still believe that the situation is still under control.
The worst is that despite the vertex of our government apparently have promulgated well thought laws, none has explained how to apply them to the law enforcements who should force the people to respect those laws.
Unluckily, this is not a rarity here in Italy.
We have a bunch of laws that are regularly ignored by many who are well known to be bad citizens, but little or no punishment are committed to them anyways.
This is the reason of the relaxment of those who still ignores the lockdown orders, they well know that even if they violated the laws nothing will happen to them.
And note, for example, that till today none of the government laws say that I can’t go outside for working, the only requirements is a written declaration that my work is “essential” but no one have never explained the meaning of that “essential”, “essential” for what?
More incredibly, till today no laws have been promulgated that impose the use of masks to go outside in those cases which is allowed such as going to the market to buy the minimum to live, or going to the pharmacy.
Our problem is that we are in the hands of incompetents, just that (left, right or center it doesn’t matter, I’m not differentiating by party because they are more or less the same).
At least here in Italy, I don’t believe that the advent of a new miracle medicine (which is not the case) will change a thing here.
Have a great day.
Massimo
Ugggh, thats terrible.
Any thoughts on why there seems to be greater mortality there? Are only the most ill people being tested?
Hi Nate,
I’ve no clue what is really the cause, but I suspect that ignorance of whom who should handle the emergency plays a role.
Here we say that after the game is over any Italian is the best coach of our football national team, meaning that when after the tings are done, it’s easy to give solutions, and I don’t want to be that case.
Anyways, the leaders of our government and civil defence did many silly things in the early days of the issue, that I suspect these played a fundamental role for this situation.
In my opinion it’s possible that Italy should be excluded from the statistic to evaluate the real virus infective power because of that (and if other countries will do the same copying us, they should excluded too).
One example for all: despite in mid january we were selling mask to chinese (I’ve a friend in the pharma industry, who those time said me that he was glad for the bargain of having sold 15000 mask to the chinese community of Milan to send to China), today we are still in needs of mask for ourselves!
Read this article that says the truth indeed:
https://www.prpchannel.com/en/scandal-masks-past-the-storm-please-home-government/
The topic is “Two hundred thousand masks send in Lombardy from National civil protection and already distributed in hospitals have been withdrawn because not approved and deemed unsuitable to protect health workers who fight on the front Coronavirus, in the wards of hospitals that hospitalize more than five thousand patients Covidien-19, 650 in intensive care and 4.435 in the ward.” but look at the photo in the article, sadly IT IS TRUE IT’S NOT A JOKE, do you understand what I’m afraid of? No is not the virus.
And despite that time many asked to close the boundaries for people coming from china or put them in quarantine, the government did nothing assuming that those who were asking for that were fascist and racist against chinese people (note that chinese communities were asking the same too, and imposed (themselves) the quarantine to those who come from their mother country in the month.
We are (or better our lives are), in the hands of ignorants that is far more dangerous than being in the hands of dishonesties or corruptnesses (I’m not justifying corruption and dishonesty of course).
Read the whole article, it gives a quite good representation of reality about this issue here in italy.
Have a great day,
Massimo
Nate, Massimo,
There is a link between fossil fuels and virus impact.
Nanomaterial Effects on Viral Infection:
https://tinyurl.com/r6kah86
Now look at Lombardy on this pollution map:
https://tinyurl.com/wdnthyb
This report links SARS to former smoking:
https://www.preprints.org/manuscript/202002.0408/v1
Here’s a recent pollution map, note Lombardy:
https://www.sciencealert.com/here-s-what-covid-19-is-doing-to-our-pollution-levels
From the link:
“Given the huge amount of evidence that breathing dirty air contributes heavily to premature mortality, a natural – if admittedly strange – question is whether the lives saved from this reduction in pollution caused by economic disruption from COVID-19 exceeds the death toll from the virus itself”.
Massimo,
“In my opinion its possible that Italy should be excluded from the statistic to evaluate the real virus infective power because of that”
Since it is showing what happens with less early social-distancing in place, it is IMO, MORE reflective of the real risks of the virus with no govt interventions.
Maybe your country will have more herd immunity, than others, for the next round.
Hi Svante,
if you was right that pollutants are the cause of our exceeding chinese pandemy, then explain me this:
https://www.eea.europa.eu/data-and-maps/figures/pm2-5-annual-mean-in-1/pm2-5-annual-mean-in-2015/103984_Map9.1-map-Report-Annual-Concentration-interpolated-map-of-PM2.5-2016_v2.eps.75dpi.gif/download
https://www.eea.europa.eu/data-and-maps/figures/annual-mean-pm10-concentrations-in-1/96156_map3-2-map-report-annual.eps/96156_Map3.2-map-Report-Annual-Concentrations-of-PM10-2016_v3%20.eps.75dpi.gif/download
Bergamo 2016 (italian epidemic hot spot)
PM2.5 = 20…25 µg/m3
PM10 = 31…40 µg/m3
file:///C:/Users/User/Downloads/ijerph-15-01102-v2.pdf
(Page 5 table 2)
Wuhan 2016 (Chinese epidemic hot spot)
PM2.5 = 61.3 ± 40.9 µg/m3
PM10 = 102.7 ± 53.3 µg/m3
Chinese area were more polluted than our.
I don’t believe this is time for statistic only analyses, people are dying.
Have a great day.
Massimo
Sorry the second file was pointing to my PC copy
Here is where I found it.
https://www.researchgate.net/publication/325421817_Particulate_Matter_and_Gaseous_Pollutions_in_Three_Metropolises_along_the_Chinese_Yangtze_River_Situation_and_Implications
Hi Nate,
“Since it is showing what happens with less early social-distancing in place, it is IMO, MORE reflective of the real risks of the virus with no govt interventions.”
I know what you means but I don’t fully agree, maybe I’ve been not clear explaining the issue.
If we did nothing at all, we never had all those people at the same point together with fever at 40C, do you get my point?
In case of fever so high any young people goes to bed and stay at warm.
We killed them doing silly things.
“Maybe your country will have more herd immunity, than others, for the next round.”
I consider this a joke of course : – )
In case ov evolution, next year we will fight an another coronavirus.
Have a great day.
Massimo
Massimo PORZIO says:
“Hi Svante, if you was right that pollutants are the cause of our exceeding chinese pandemy, then explain …”
I’m not saying that, it’s a virus. I’m saying it’s a factor in the high mortality rate. Aging population, only second to Japan, is another one, that’s why your mortality rate is higher than China’s. You got it early so you are ahead of others.
“I don’t believe this is time for statistic only analyses, people are dying.”
It’s not statistics, it’s micro biology. Let me repeat the quote, you obviously missed it:
Hi Svante,
For elderly isn’t not completely true, it depends on their healthy state.
For the younger (that are dying too), that was true if them were already affected by some illness, but here died many younger than the average who didn’t have nothing before this tragedy.
And again, you are arguing that that chinese city air was better than here, so the bodies of the chinese people who are living in that area are less stressed and more healty than ours?
Mortality here is high, because we have very incompetent leaders in key roles of this emergency, who did the worst things they should have never do.
Of course this is only my opinion as an observer of the thing that happened. I can’t have the proofs for that until someone at the end of this disaster analyzes accurately what it happened, but those choice that they did were surely insane.
Have a great day.
Massimo
“you are arguing that that chinese city air was better than here, so the bodies of the chinese people who are living in that area are less stressed and more healty than ours?”
No, China has worse air than anyone.
Other factors made up for it.
Hope you get your facts straight, a correct world view is a matter of life and death now.
Hi Svante,
I apologize, I reread you first message and believed you was arguing that our exceeding of death cases compared to China ones was all due to the nanoparticles.
Yesterday night, I read your link above and I agree that everything we breath (and eat too) influence our health and survival expectancy (nanoparticles too of course). The whole evolutionary science is based on this concept, no doubt. I consider Charles Darwin one of greatest mind ever lived on Earth, how could I deny that?
Sorry, I’ve been mislead because I was talking with Nate about the incredible number of death compared to China ones, which is not due to our usual air condition.
You must know that I always been absolutely convinced that diesel fuel combustion byproducts (which with home heating, are the main PM2.5/PM10 sources here) are far more dangerous than gasoline combustion byproducts (they practically produces very little PM2.5/PM10), so that I never bought a diesel car in my life, and I’ll never do.
The Padana valley, where I live, it’s a closed valley surrounded on three sides by the Alps, for that we should have never push people to use diesel cars, that’s one other idiocy of our time.
Have a great day,
Massimo
Thanks, I agree, be careful out there!
Italian doctors say Covid-19 is not like flu. Rather, it resembles chronic pneumonia.
My doctor declined to give me a prescription for hydroxychloroquine “just in case”. For some reason she is against handing drugs out like candy to old coots who are not sick.
She is a very smart lady with a great sense of humor so I am confident she will be prepared should I need it.
Hi gallopingcamel,
she is right, she is doing the right thing in this case.
Have a great day.
Massimo
I read your earlier comments carefully. It really sounds grim in Italy so my heart goes out to you. In the USA we still have a little time to learn from your experience.
Thank you Peter,
I hope the expected seasonal higher temperature will stop this soon.
No matter what the virus it is, our first shield is the nose mucosa, and its activity is regulated by the temperature, because the winter cold induces vasoconstriction allowing the viruses easily to pass through this important shield.
Have a great day.
Massimo
Yep
https://www.drroyspencer.com/2020/03/hydroxychloroquine-now-being-advocated-to-fight-coronavirus-trump-supporting/#comment-449346
A complication of the flu is most often bacterial pneumonia, which is treated with an antibiotic. Covid-19 causes viral pneumonia quickly.
We have now seen senators try to make a buck off this pandemic.
We all know what bureaucracy is.
Some in those press conferences find themselves in the limelight for the first time in their lives.
Some in the bureaucracy believe in the burocracy and only the burocracy.
I am not being a conspiracy nut. I just believe that there are many well meaning people who can’t deal with things not happening in a certain way. We all know such people and they do well as bureaucrats.
So when, in the middle of this crisis, a possible solution comes along that could literally end the crisis in an instant, you can expect these type of people to react the way they have reacted.
I’ve been a long term investor in the pharmaceutical industry and I know most major pharmas are not rooting for this quick easy solution. There is far less money in it than the billions to be made with a solution developed in the normal course taking a year or two to achieve.
Remember that scurvy was cured with an lemon
“James Lind: The man who helped to cure scurvy with lemons. James Lind is remembered as the man who helped to conquer a killer disease. His reported experiment on board a naval ship in 1747 showed that oranges and lemons were a cure for scurvy.”.
This event and the way it appears to be ending in China will reflect negatively on big pharma as too slow and expensive.
With the reported p<.001" a difference due to a random event or external factor is near zero. The study showed a dramatic reduction by day #3 and clear of virus by day #6. Subjects were infected at the start of study, so this is a 'game changer'.
I just read this below in a serious German newspaper, and don’t know wether this is valid for many other countries:
“Young people infected with the coronavirus are being treated more and more in the intensive care units. That has been shown in Italy – and ‘ that is a picture that also emerges in Germany ‘ said chief physician Clemens Wendtner from the Clinic for Infectious Diseases at Munich Clinic Schwabing.
‘ The youngest symptomatic Covid-19 patients were in their early twenties. Overall, we see the entire demographic age spectrum, whether in normal or intensive care. ‘
Unitl now I thought like many other people that CoViD19 death toll was restricted to older, endangered persons.
Watching the Thailand cases is interesting as they have lots of Chinese tourists and were first country outside China to have a case. Their confirmed cases stand at 422. It is hot and humid in Thailand. They havent until recently put in any major social distancing regulations. The cases seemed to jump in last week or so. Cases are coming from large events like boxing matches which are popular there and nightlife. Given the few regulations ,until recently, it seems growth is slower in hotter and warmer places. I live in Texas and we have cases but no where near amount NY and Washington has.
These numbers are hard to study because many cases come in from outside country due to travel.
I live in Thailand. There is very little in the way of laws and very little enforcement of what laws there are. Flights were not stopped from China when this broke. According to all the ‘experts’ this should be the number one spot in the world for Covid-19 and yet it is not. Over the last month weeks the temperature here has been just under 40C. It is not winter here. Cold and dry is what these viruses love, and yes, that is why we have a flu season. https://journals.plos.org/plospathogens/article?id=10.1371/journal.ppat.0030151
Common sense is not allowed. Better to let thousands die while we wait for double blind trials etc. The hubris from some of the naysayers on this forum is breath taking. Me, I am going to get some hydroxychloroquine to protect myself and my family from the virus and the experts. Spare me your ‘it is not safe’ sanctimonious advice.
Ah, a believer in the power of the consensus! 🙂
Now this is what happens when you spread rumours.
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/51980731
“Daniel Semeniworima says people are taking uninformed decisions to stay safe but this is having serious medical consequences.
It’s been reported that Lagos is now dealing with a spate of people being poisoned from overdoses of chloroquine.”
“serious medical consequences” as opposed to how many deaths from Covid-19? It is not a rumour. It is science. Korea recommends “chloroquine 500mg orally per day”. I will take that over anything you or any other learned scholar who has done nothing except talk about the issue. “Oh but that is only anecdotal” Yes, that means they did it and it worked. They didn’t have time for 6 month double blind trials so they could publish a paper and be lauded. They had to make life and death decisions and they did just that.
Bindidon, How is possible so few death numbers in Germany?
What do you know about?
In Poland, a young woman infected with Covid-19 was intubated. In the final phase sepsis occurred. She was not considered a coronovirus victim.
In my opinion, this is the result of the high efficiency of German healthcare.
Hola Adelaida
Sorry, I was not visiting the page today evening.
I don’t know why the Germany’s death toll is so low.
Bit please don’t look at the death toll, let alone at death toll or cases per million people.
These numbers are completely irrelevant.
What matters:
– the new cases;
– the ratio: new cases / total cases;
– the decreasing age of severe new cases.
This tells us about what happens day by day in the hospitals.
As you know, Spain is heavily affected by new case increase, what quickly can move hospitals in a dangerous trash mode.
Italy is there since quite a while: in Italian hospitals, the medical personnel has to decide every day who shall survive and who won’t, because there is not enough personnel let alone enough machinery to save all severe cases.
This is a terrifying issue.
Please look at worldometers.info, and therein for the virus.
https://www.businessinsider.com/presentation-how-hospitals-are-preparing-for-us-coronavirus-outbreak-2020-3?IR=T
“A leaked presentation reveals the document US hospitals are using to prepare for a major coronavirus outbreak. It estimates 96 million US coronavirus cases and 480,000 deaths.”
It’s a fake new???
It’ s a fake news??https://www.businessinsider.com/presentation-how-hospitals-are-preparing-for-us-coronavirus-outbreak-2020-3?IR=T
“A leaked presentation reveals the document US hospitals are using to prepare for a major coronavirus outbreak. It estimates 96 million US coronavirus cases and 480,000 deaths.”
You have to tell the truth. We don’t have a medicine that destroys the Covid-19 virus. You can only count on your antibodies. Take care of your immunity.
A local doctor published his notes from a March 10 panel discussion at a local university hospital. Nothing is being hidden from what I can tell. Official estimate is 40% to 70% of population will be infected in the next 12 to 18 months. I have seen these numbers published elsewhere as well.
At a 1% death rate the US can expect to lose somewhere between 1.2 million and 2.1 million people over the next 18 months.
To put that into perspective, in WW2 the US lost 407,000 people in four years.
I missed the error in my fist post that I didn’t us a capital “T” in my name. Sorry. I am not a scientist, but I am a very experienced Chemical Engineer, so I understand most scientific principles. We do not know the true death rate in a modern hospital setting with advanced care, but it does seem to be much higher than flu. The obvious problem is that this virus attacks the lungs very aggressively. With all of the best minds in the world working on this (all other work seems to have stopped!) maybe we can find some level of hospital care and drug therapy that will reduce that death rate.
It is well interesting to note that while US and UK show by far the lowest cases per million inhabitants, they conversely show today evening the highest new cases / total cases ratios.
UK 26 %
US 23
SP 18
FR 15
IT 14
GM 13
Switzerland has 22, but this is a very special context due to doubly infected neighbourhood (Northern Italy, Northeast France).
Of course, the numbers will vary day by day, but it’s in some sense a bit symptomatic. Both Trump and Johnson have proven to be hyperspecialists in underestimating CoViD-19’s power.
We’ll see in a week…
Well your use of percentages is pretty pointless for example was the % derived from total cases from yesterday to new cases today or today’s total a nd expressed as a percentage?
T
Why did you not use the actual numbers?
They are easily available.
https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/
Adelaida
Cold and with rain or even sleet in Spain.
https://scontent-frx5-1.xx.fbcdn.net/v/t1.0-9/89981527_1280233512182592_681729812317863936_n.png?_nc_cat=105&_nc_sid=8024bb&_nc_ohc=FW8-NDFKPL0AX-ASn7N&_nc_ht=scontent-frx5-1.xx&oh=d7c18171ebcc7766eda4dd166864f214&oe=5E9AB0BC
Early detection of coronavirus can determine life. In my opinion, antiviral drugs work up to about 5 days from the beginning of the infection (may I be wrong).
Fauci is a bureaucrat. For him the definition of anecdotal regarding test results is any information gathered without being a part of an FDA approved test. In this environment, that makes him a fool, and I like him.
Any of you who invest in pharmas understand the FDA process, the cost and the time involved, usually several years.
If an outfit is developing a toenail fungus cure, well I don’t much care about the time factor. This guy has trouble acknowledging that these drugs just might work because the information is not flowing from FDA, but instead directly from”anecdotal” uses. Being a bureaucrat and living that type of life, similar to being a part of the military, allows for no exceptions to the rules.
The drugs in question all have prior approvals for use which means they are safe to use subject to drug interactions and some other issues, so no need for phase 1 tests, IMO. They need to hurry these tests.
Statistically speaking, these tests should take very little time, perhaps weeks as the probabilities of recovery by those using and those not can be seen in these short periods of time.
Fauci should acknowledge this and urge the FDA to move rapidly rather than be so skeptical just because the recoveries noted so far didn’t happen in FDA tests.
Fauci is a scientist, not a bureaucrat, whatever you think that is.
He is aware that a number of different therapies are being tested and at this point in time it is not known which if any of these will prove theraputic.
It is simply premature to go all-in on one of these.
Any indication how much zinc per day is required and what is the most efficient source?
I don’t know what healthcare is like in Italy. In Spain the health system under normal conditions is excellent and is always improving.
For this we have taxes and the Spanish have to be very proud of it because nobody is left out and everyone is well cared for.
I think that talking about socialism or communism is from a bygone era, and that these advances should incorporate all the countries of the world.
The government of my country is a separate case and has – NOTHING – to do with the praises I make to Spanish healthcare.
I have public and private health and I can assure that the public has nothing to envy the private and many times it is the opposite … and I am saying that it is in continuous progress.
Right now in Madrid they are enabling the most important fairgrounds in the city as a field hospital, and others in other regions, many hotels are also dedicating themselves to the isolation of the lightly ill and people from all over the country are at home without leaving , except the indispensable works …. and the construction that there is no right to continue working.
The president has said that he has bought more than 600,000 tests … Donated masks are arriving from China, inditex is manufacturing robes …, I suppose that they will also manufacture masks within the country …
Due to the ineptitude of the government, it has started late in a stupid and irresponsible way, because we have all seen the terrible images on television in China and Italy when there began to be isolated cases in our countries …
But I hope that the measures that are being taken and those that have to be taken … (What about the focus on buying food?)
are enough to prevent the collapse of our heroic medical corps,
And that in the end they prevent us from reaching 1% death in our population and staying in the smallest possible number of dead and affected …
And I wish the same for your countries!!!
And now if you allow me, I propose to share the practical preventive measures that we know are most effective!
I have friends right now working on the front line and would love to be able to provide them with information on chloroquine and Zn that would not make them hesitate!
If this is possible!
Of course we, my family and I consider that isolation and teleworking, having the maximum of food to endure the maximum possible without leaving is The best … And when you have to leave home, if it is within a city, or you have to go to the supermarket, pharmacy … mask, gloves …
And on the way home:
Any element that has been in contact with the outside, will have to be machine washed (at 40 C it seems enough) Or desinfected with bleach or alcohol. Maybe credit cards. Is it enough to washwell with soap and water?
And we to the warm shower with hair wash included!
Food there are two options:
– Desinfect the containers with bleach or with 70 alcohol.
– Leave everything in one place without touching it for 9 days.
As for “drugs” that we should take ….
I found an interesting article in a magazine about sepsis and coronavirus, which is in Spanish, but I translate some important paragraphs for you:
“Septicemia is the leading cause of death related to influenza and coronavirus pneumonia. Vitamin C could reduce this mortality”
“A protocol developed by Dr. Paul Marik, an intensive care physician at Sentara Norfolk General Hospital (East Virginia, United States), has proven that it can reduce sepsis mortality from 40% to 8.5%.
This protocol consists of administering the following preparations for two days: 200 mg of thiamine every 12 hours. 1,500 mg of ascorbic acid (vitamin C) intravenously every six hours. 50 mg of hydrocortisone every six hours.
According to Marik, the best results are obtained when the mixture is administered within the first six hours from the onset of symptoms of sepsis ”
Before reaching this state of sepsis, it seems logical to think that taking plenty of vitamin C can help us!!
… In Spain and I suppose that worldwide there is the Vit C of Bayer “REDOXON” 1000mg, with Zn 10mg and Vit D
https://www.cuerpomente.com/salud-natural/tratamientos/vitamina-c-coronavirus-covid-19_5961
Thanks Ren and Bindidon for your before information! Dziękuję !! & Danke!! 🙂
And Thank you for all tour before and after information too!!
l
Y ahora si me lo permits os propongo compartir las medidas preventivas prcticas que sepamos que son ms eficaces!
Tengo amigos ahora mismo trabajando en primera lnea y me encantara poder proporcionarles informacin sobre la cloroquina y el Zn que no les hiciera dudar! Si ello es posible!
Desde luego nosotros , mi familia y yo consideramos que el aislamiento y el teletrabajo, teniendo el mximo de vveres para aguantar el mximo posible sin salir es fundamental…
Y cuando haya que salir de casa, si es dentro de una ciudad, o se tiene que ir al supermercado, farmacia..
mascarilla, guantes….y a la vuelta a casa:
Todo elemento que haya estado en contacto con el exterior, tendr que ser lavado en lavadora (a 40C me parece suficiente)
O desinfectado con leja o alcohol.
Quizs las tarjetas de crdito Es suficiente con lavarlas bien con agua y jabn?
Y nosotros a la ducha calentita con lavado de pelo incluido!
La comida hay dos opciones:
– Desinfectar los envases con leja o con alcohol de 70
– Dejar todo en un lugar sin tocarlo 9 dias.
En cuanto a “frmacos” que nos conviene tomar….encontr un artculo interesante en una revista sobre la septicemia y el coronavirus, q est en espaol, pero.os traduzco unos prrafos importantes:
“Septicemia is the leading cause of death related to influenza and coronavirus pneumonia. Vitamin C could reduce this mortality”
“A protocol developed by Dr. Paul Marik, an intensive care physician at Sentara Norfolk General Hospital (East Virginia, United States), has proven that it can reduce septicemia mortality from 40% to 8.5%. This protocol consists of administering the following preparations for two days: 200 mg of thiamine every 12 hours. 1,500 mg of ascorbic acid (vitamin C) intravenously every six hours. 50 mg of hydrocortisone every six hours. According to Marik, the best results are obtained when the mixture is administered within the first six hours from the onset of symptoms of sepsis”
Antes de llegar a ese estado de sepsis, parece lgico pensar que tomar abundante vitamina C nos puede ayudar…
En Espaa y supongo que en todo el mundo est la vit C de Bayer “REDOXON” 1000mg, con Zn 10mg y vit D
https://www.cuerpomente.com/salud-natural/tratamientos/vitamina-c-coronavirus-covid-19_5961
Gracias Ren y Bindidon por vuestra informacin! Dziękuję!! & Danke!! 🙂
And Thank you everibody for all your before and after information too!!
My best wishes for you!!!!!
I don’t know why the second to last message is duplicated
I’m sorry!
Dsole!! 🙁
Adelaida, I eat fresh garlic as a natural means of reducing the pressure and melatonin, an antioxidant and as a means to calm down.
Meanwhile something seems going on from Germany.
https://www.dpz.eu/en/home/single-view/news/die-vermehrung-von-sars-coronavirus-2-im-menschen-verhindern.html
https://marlin-prod.literatumonline.com/pb-assets/journals/research/cell/CELL_S0092-8674%2820%2930229-4.pdf
Let’s hope, even if it will probably take a long time.
Thanks Massimo, I lacked time today for the search you were successful in.
Looks promising indeed, but my guess is that CureVac’s stuff very probably will come out somewhat earlier.
The more walls Mankind will accumulate against the crazy guy, the better nonetheless!
But I’m pessimistic however: viral transitions from animals to humans AND security problems in P4 labs (hmmmh) will be our future… que cela nous plaise ou pas!
Rgds
J.-P. D.
Hi Bibindon,
“But I’m pessimistic however: viral transitions from animals to humans AND security problems in P4 labs (hmmmh) will be our future… que cela nous plaise ou pas!”
I’m not sure what are you arguing here, are you dubious about the fortuity of this case?
Have a great day.
Massimo
Massimo
I’m no paranoid person.
But if at the beginning of a pandemic you see both a wet market and a P4 lab at the very centre of the outbreak: what do you think?
J.-P. D.
Hi Bibindon,
my opinion is that they just did something bad in the P4 lab, becuse of inexperience.
For what I read, that lab was just BSL-3 before 2017. That year they got the BSL-4 homologation, and reading this article (is in italian, but you should easily translate it via Google translator), at thay time more than one biologists where worried about the chinese reliability in handlings of dangerous virus without available vaccines.
Have a great day.
Massimo
Hoops! I missed the link!
Sorry.
https://www.lescienze.it/news/2017/02/25/news/laboratorio_cinese_patogeni_pericolosi-3435336/
Wuhan’s P4 was installed 5 years ago with the help of the French Meyrieux P4 staff, after China had recurrent problems with its P3 levels.
Hi Bibindon,
Yes, just a typo I would write 2015 instead.
Sorry.
Congratulations to Germany, Bindidon, for the forecast with the massive and early tests, in addition to other factors such as having tremendous hospital capacity and intensive care units!…
And we must really thank the Germans for now welcoming the French coronavirus patients to your hospitals !!! That makes humanity great !!!!
A break with the self centered nationalistic instinct, well done Germany!
Adelaida
Everything gets easier when you are rich.
Germany is rich.
If Italy and Spain were as rich as is Germany, they would have had other possibilities in fighting against SARS-CoV-2.
But… the US are rich too, much more than is Germany.
We will see if Trump really DOES something.
Until now, he tries to push chloroquine, telling the media ‘I have a good feeling about it, I am an intelligent man’!
And of course, he does this without warning about any effects: danger of heavy retinopathy and maculopathy, in other words: irreversible loss of vision.
And be sure that neither commentator Kb, let alone trump himself, will take even a nanogram of it!!!
Last not least: OK, Germany helps France, but that help should have started weeks ago.
And… Europe, France and Germany didn’t help… Italy in due time.
It doesnt take 6 days the majority of cases take far longer
Read the study they compared it to people not taking it
This is the solution and big pharmacy is trying to kill it
The weather in CA, just like in Spain, is very favorable for coronavirus spread.
https://files.tinypic.pl/i/01000/3qqdhur2g8a1.png
People who develop coronovirus almost asymptomatic have plasma antibodies. This can be used as a temporary vaccine. Wuhan shows that you can not get infected a second time. So plasma with antibodies can be effective.
For most people Coronavirus is like the flu or even a cold, but for 20% its something awful. Even in younger patients a few seemingly fit and healthy 40 and 50 year olds are gasping for air as their lungs fill with blood and fluid and its like a near death drowning or inhaling caustic gas. Forgive the language in the headline those were this docs exact words. Hes working at a New Orleans hospital and his whole attitude to the virus has changed dramatically.
http://joannenova.com.au/2020/03/doc-talks-about-his-holy-s-moment-horrible-lung-failure-even-in-young-patients/#comment-2296481
Testing will begin tomorrow in New York State:
https://www.nydailynews.com/coronavirus/ny-coronavirus-testing-new-york-state-20200322-zvzog4p2yvh4bpvhbd5p5nxlly-story.html
“The feds have given the state 70,000 doses of hydroxychloroquine, 10,000 doses of zithromax and 750,000 doses of chloroquine. Testing will kick off Tuesday, Cuomo said.”
It may be a miracle to some people but to those of us who have recieved in the US Army, it is not. There are short and long-term side effects that are not being spoken about. The biggest ones being neurological and psychological effects that I’m positive you would not want to experience. I would never recommend chloroquine.
A little perspective might help shed some light on this conversation. Back in the late 1950’s and early 1960’s, thalidomide was used in Europe as a sedative and for morning sickness under the impression it was safe for pregnant women. Unfortunately, serious birth defects resulted.
The drug was prevented from approval by the FDA in the US. Criticism of the slow process of drug approvals were arguably unjustified. More regulation developed in the US and elsewhere as a result.
Risk benefit scenarios must be considered. If I am dying of cancer and a promising drug is available, I would take the risk. Same thing with this Wuhan virus.
If I am virus free or showing no symptoms, I wait for more definitive evidence that the treatment is safe and effective.
Chic Bowdrie
” Unfortunately, serious birth defects resulted. ”
Oh yes, and there were many many of them, especially in France. Three years ago, just before retiring, I saw one of these ‘children’ (about 50 in between, I guess). He had no arms.
And the same will happen if some irresponsible persons, solely driven by their success in the next election, will take the wrong decisions.
The effects of thalidomide were unknown 60 years ago; those of e.g. chloroquine definitely are today.
” Risk benefit scenarios must be considered. ”
Oh yes – under the condition that people get well, equally informed about the two sides of the medal. I’m afraid this won’t happen.
Rgds
J.-P. D.
Bindindon, I think that Italy and Spain are rich enough to have carried it efficiently by buying abundant tests from the outset, as Germany did …
Germany was intelligent and our government above all (Italy was first and therefore more sudden), after seeing what was happening in Italy, has been absolutely incompetent and I could say that criminal!
We in Spain, we do not have as many beds per hospital and UCIS as Germany but the level of deaths that your country is carrying right now I think we could have absorbed without problems …
The defect is not in our healing,
but in our rulers. As a sample:
Yesterday it seems to me that it was, when the Spanish president announced that they were going to buy 4 million tests in addition to the 600,000 already purchased.
Couldn’t they have done it before ??
Negligence and a tremendous lack of responsibility is what they have shown! And that’s why I say they are criminals !!!
Anyway…,”Better late than Never”….
And I say the same for your German help: “Better now than Never”, and Thank you a lot Germany for helping french brothers!
Adelaida
1. ” I think that Italy and Spain are rich enough… ”
No. Definitely not!
Because the ‘rich’ I was talking about does not mean ‘rich enough to buy the equipment you don’t have’.
It means ‘rich enough to have introduced, some longer time ago, the mental / societal and therefore financial and technical contexts needed to quickly take the right decisions in absolutely unexpected situations.
2. ” Negligence and a tremendous lack of responsibility is what they have shown! And that’s why I say they are criminals !!! ”
Again: no. Definitely not! Please don’t name these people criminals.
Because at the time this virus started to spread out, no one was able to imagine how perverse it behaves in comparison to Ebola and the first SARS & MERS epidemies.
SARS-CoV-2 is an agent completely differing from SARS and MERS, what lead inexperienced people to wrong conclusions, even in… Germany!
OK, we have here much less death toll to complain about, but what counts is… the new case / total case ratio !!!
And what counts is that CoV-2 is now present in 192 of the 195 countries in the World.
*
There is only one REAL criminal in my honest opinion, and it is the man who could take for his great country the decisions absolutely needed, but prefers to tell that in two weeks, weather conditions in the country might (!!!) be sufficient to stop the virus.
No one on Earth could behave more irresponsible.
While especially in Italy and Spain, all were overrun 4-5 weeks ago, this man now is best informed and could handle. He doesn’t, apart from a giant help program destinated to his friends in the heavy industry alone.
*
Best regards to Spain (I hope my lady and I we will be able to stay next November in Al Andalus again, like we do since now many years).
But… I have some little doubt.
¡Hasta la próxima!
“Risk benefit scenarios must be considered. If I am dying of cancer and a promising drug is available, I would take the risk. Same thing with this Wuhan virus.
If I am virus free or showing no symptoms, I wait for more definitive evidence that the treatment is safe and effective.”
Yes!!!!
And It’s indispensable The good medical control!
Bindidon,
Paradoxically, you surely know more about Andalusia than I do …
I think that therein lies the error and the difference between the two!
…. Andalusia is the least “developed” region of Spain …, it is something that is always said and because of the way you react they must be right …..
The Spain that I know, El Levante and the northern half, is not like that and I know what I am talking about because in my family we have had major health problems treated by both public and private health ……
And I reiterate that what I know is excellent and I highlight public health for serious problems (cancer, a relative of mine) and only praises can come from my lips to professionals, media and facilities!
And it is a healing for everyone without distinction !!!
….. Do you know the T4 of our Barajas airport? …. I clarify that it is very modern and beautiful ….. because of that level is the public health that I know in Spain …. nothing to envy to any country in Europe as far as I have been able to see ….
And I have traveled! …
No, our government is criminal,
they themselves recognized yesterday that they knew the seriousness of Italy and China when the very first cases began in Spain …… and they did nothing more than downplay it and encourage people to go to the demonstrations for women’s day
on 8 M …
(In addition to being unscrupulous scoundrels in many other aspects that do not come to account now)
And I agree with your opinion on Trump.
My best regards for you and your family!
Adelaida
” Do you know the T4 of our Barajas airport? ”
Barajas has no chance to see us anyway. From Conil de la Frontera till Motril, there is AGP aka Málaga, and no one else.
Btw: I was surprised to discover over the years that there are in Spain 15 locations ending in ‘… de la Frontera’. Two are in a place where I never would have imagined them to be!
Rgds
J.-P. D.
Innovio and Moderna vaccines are being fast tracked especially Moderna that is sponsored by Dr Fauci of NSIAD and BARDA
Experimental vaccines being fast tracked that alter mans DNA. What could go wrong?
“alter mans DNA.”
?? They are just injecting a part of virus mRNA.
An interesting UK study (London Imperial College):
https://www.imperial.ac.uk/media/imperial-college/medicine/sph/ide/gida-fellowships/Imperial-College-COVID19-NPI-modelling-16-03-2020.pdf
J.-P. D.
At least some research to back up all the strict lockdowns.
Yes.
https://www.wsj.com/articles/these-drugs-are-helping-our-coronavirus-patients-11584899438
The link is to an article in today’s Wall Street Journal by two physicians who are using hydroxychloroquine right now on their Covid 19 patients. They say it works, in a two drug cocktail with azithromycin, as used in the French study from Marseille.
TW2020
You are telling lots of nonsense here.
There is NO French study from Marseille.
Nothing more than some Youtube buzz intentionally created by Pr. Didier Raoult, a rather unknown infectious disease specialist.
The Youtube stuff moreover is based on two inofficial Chinese papers, both reporting about IN VITRO success.
What is terrifying is that people like you can propagate the use of what they themselves NEVER AND NEVER would take.
One more mini-Trump…
J.-P. D.
It terrifies me that people like Bindidon are so blinded by hatred.
Dear TW2020,
Here is a link to the study that is all over Fox News while CNN derides it as a Donald Trump “distraction”. They can’t both be right so which of them will earn a “Fake News” award this time?
https://drive.google.com/file/d/186Bel9RqfsmEx55FDum4xY_IlWSHnGbj/view
If this is a scam they had me fooled the minute I read Didier Raoult’s wiki:
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Didier_Raoult
Live long and prosper.
gallopingcamel
” It terrifies me that people like Bindidon are so blinded by hatred. ”
Hatred? Are you serious?
I don’t hate anybody. I’m simply reflecting French scientific reactions about Raoult’s excessively positive statements concerning the ability of hydroxychloroquine to weaken CoViD-19 without harsh side-effects.
*
I never read any ‘information’ produced by CNN let alone Fox News!
*
The number of publications can by no means be a measure of the intrinsic quality of the person having published. By NO means!
Let me add that you too certainly wouldn’t test chloroquine after having read about its negative effects, especially loss of vision experienced by so many people in Africa.
Please google for them instead of galloping against windmills.
J.-P. D.
@Bindidon, you said:
“Nothing more than some Youtube buzz intentionally created by Pr. Didier Raoult, a rather unknown infectious disease specialist.”
You defamed an accomplished virologist because Donald Trump expressed an interest in the treatment he proposed?
That was a loathsome thing to do and you need to apologize at least
to Didier Raoult and if you want my respect you should apologize to Donald Trump as well.
You then went on to say:
“Let me add that you too certainly wouldn’t test chloroquine after having read about its negative effects, especially loss of vision experienced by so many people in Africa.”
I was treated with quinine based drugs in 1955 when I was 18 years old, living in Rawalpindi (Pakistan). I have no idea whether it was the “hydroxy”, the “phosphate” or some other compound. I survived malaria thanks to this drug and only had two recurrences that were severe enough to warrant medical treatment.
The toxicity of hydroxychloroquine is well understood so I have already asked my physician to provide it if I get COVID-19 given that I am in a “High Risk” category. If infected I plan to stay at home and rely on Dr. Raoult’s drug cocktail to improve my chances. That way I will impose no burden on my local hospital or ICU and if things go badly I will die at home.
While this will reduce the load on local health services my motives are not noble. Hospitals are dangerous places and they wake you up at all hours whether you like it or not. At home I will be much more comfortable and my family will be close at hand (also a bottle of 12 year old Glenfiddich).
P. Morcombe
” You defamed an accomplished virologist because Donald Trump expressed an interest in the treatment he proposed? ”
This, Sir is exactly what I mean with ‘galloping against windmills’.
I did not at all defame Raoult: I followed the meaning of nearly all renowned scientists in France concerning his unscientific way to do science.
I have no interest in debating even a femtosecond about your Trump friend.
J.-P. D.
Have you no shame?
Read this before you decide to self-medicate.
https://www.axios.com/chloroquine-coronavirus-death-09c91a91-4fe7-472c-9de9-79b890aa8fff.html
Too many people vying for the Darwin Award out there…
This is the problem with alternative facts, they provide comfort for a while but sooner or later there is a clash with reality.
I’m all for your freedom of speech rights Roy but remove this so called view.
Your expidition into a world you are NOT qualified for can have real world effects ie 1 death and 1 critical.
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/52012242
Then there is the problem of the president desperate to mai tain the economy and grasping at the very straws you espouse again without the specialism..
Stick to what you know in your field of expertise and follow the advice of those in theirs!
Otherwise we end up with desperate people eating a kilo of garlic and nutters saying it’s a conspiracy to destroy the west or it’s a dry run for AGW&CC!
Please take down the article it really is bad science you have many missing parameters and it has the potential for real harm.
I agree your rights to publish under the 1st amendment but MORALLY ?
Regards concerned in the UK.
Sleep well untroubled by your conscience.
That’s a point.
I can’t post!
Will it be related to what I uploaded yesterday?
I don’t agree with you Bindidon,
nor with those who disagree with talking about hydroxychloroquine. …..
Although it is necessary to appeal and insist on medical control. It is a medicine, it has side effects and there is a possibility of poisoning. So the doctor is the one who has to assess each particular case.
Instead I say:
Bravo the investigation of the vaccines and the results with the hydroxychloroquine!!
And I encourage everyone to trust in science, in medical professionals, to follow their instructions rigorously and to have a lot of hope to get out of this crisis … and also to pray for it to be so!! (Who is a believer!) 🙂
More information:
Ensayo clinico europeo. Tratamiento Covid19
“The study has taken as a basis data on the SARS and MERS coronaviruses and the first publications from China of the latter SARS-CoV2, origin of the current pandemic, to prepare the list of antiviral molecules to be tested.
That list includes remdesivir, originally designed for HIV and used for Ebola; lopinavir combined with ritonavir, commonly used also for HIV carriers; and hydroxychloroquine, which is commonly used to prevent malaria.
The selection of these potential drugs, according to INSERM, is in turn based on the list of experimental treatments that the WHO has classified as priority'”
Sorry I can’t post the link nor others…
New York state is also running a clinical trial beginning Tuesday of a treatment regimen of hydroxychloroquine and azithromycin, two drugs that doctors in Africa and elsewhere say they’ve seen anecdotal evidence it may help fight the virus. The state health department will also be running a clinical trial using the blood plasma of recovered patients to treat new infections, he said.
https://www.cnbc.com/2020/03/24/troubling-and-astronomical-coronavirus-cases-increase-urgency-for-hospital-beds-new-york-gov-cuomo-says.html
Malaria is not caused by a virus or bacteria!!
Chloroquine increases the effectiveness of zinc anti-viral activity, and the antibiotic protects against additional bacterial infection. Plasma from people who have antibodies can be very effective. The virus is not transmitted through blood.
Ol Ren!!
Ol!! Ren 🙂
Good morning,
I heard this morning that the National Drug Agency in Spain has authorized the use of hydroxychloroquine in patients with pneumonia who previously had taken this drug for Malaria, Arthritis or Lupus.
They are conducting several clinical trials to see possible side effects in other types of patients. If the result is good, it could be given to other patients while getting the vaccine for this virus.
Adelaida, Spain has no time to experiment. This medicine is already tested and you know how to use it.
The number of fatalities in Spain is already greater than in China.
Spain
Coronavirus Cases:
47,610
Deaths:
3,434
Recovered:
5,367
Given the number of healed, the number of victims will be terrifying.
https://youtu.be/3AzIgAa0Cm8?t=130
Adelaida
I hope that nobody in Spain belongs to this Pentecostal church:
https://www.lemonde.fr/planete/article/2020/03/07/coronavirus-a-mulhouse-l-eglise-evangelique-la-porte-ouverte-identifiee-comme-un-foyer-important-de-contamination_6032215_3244.html
The most incredible fact is that… the people responsible for inviting about 2,000 adepts from all parts of France and some other countries nearby, were aware of the infection in their context.
Having worked extensively in infectious diseases, Dr Spencer’s past work experience saw him contract the deadly Ebola virus. In 2015, after treating patients in West Africa, he was diagnosed and treated in New York City for the viral hemorrhagic fever, which on average kills 50 percent of those infected.
Despite having survived such a deadly illness, Dr Spencer states that he’s worried about COVID-19 and is making a direct plea to anyone who is still under the impression that it’s tantamount to “just another” strain of flu to take physical distancing seriously.
https://www.iflscience.com/health-and-medicine/doctor-gives-harrowing-account-of-life-on-the-frontline-for-clinicians-treating-covid19-in-new-york/
That would be Craig Spencer, not Roy Spencer.
“The pace of our initial progress in COVID-19 is attributable to the capability of our plant-based platform, which is able to produce vaccine and antibody solutions to counteract this global public health threat. The ability to produce a candidate vaccine within 20 days after obtaining the gene is a critical differentiator for our proven technology. This technology enables scale-up at unprecedented speed to potentially combat COVID-19,” said Dr. Bruce Clark, CEO of Medicago.
https://www.biospace.com/article/releases/medicago-announces-production-of-a-viable-vaccine-candidate-for-covid-19/
Plant vaccines are very safe.
I know: French certainly isn’t the preferred language of most commenters.
Here is nonetheless an interesting contribution by the French newspaper ‘Le Monde’:
https://tinyurl.com/txhxqtp
If you have a smartphone, you might let Google translate the stuff on the fly.
J.-P. D.
CNN has been putting out a series of negative commentaries such as this one:
https://www.cnn.com/2020/03/19/politics/trump-fda-anti-viral-treatments-coronavirus/index.html
If it turns out that Didier Roault’s treatment saves lives will CNN apologize or admit that they were wrong? Don’t hold your breath on that one.
P. Morcombe
There is nothing wrong in what CNN wrote about Rouault.
I’ll write about that here tomorrow evening.
It is incredible that a person like you having done hard scientific work in the synchroton context can be manipulated in such a trivial way.
J.-P. D.
@Bindidon,
Raoult published a second study today. This time there were 80 hospitalized patients. Only the most seriously ill patients are hospitalized and right now that looks like 2% of the reported cases.
Out of the 80 patients 79 survived and the one who died was 86 years old.
Lives are at risk so is it possible that you could be wrong? Here is what you said to TW2020:
“You are telling lots of nonsense here.
There is NO French study from Marseille.
Nothing more than some Youtube buzz intentionally created by Pr. Didier Raoult, a rather unknown infectious disease specialist.
The Youtube stuff moreover is based on two inofficial Chinese papers, both reporting about IN VITRO success.
What is terrifying is that people like you can propagate the use of what they themselves NEVER AND NEVER would take.
One more mini-Trump”
The same day that New York Gov. Andrew Cuomo announced the initiation of a clinical trial using blood plasma from patients who have recovered from COVID-19, the U.S. Food and Drug Administration (FDA) announced wider support for the practice.
The FDA said Tuesday that it will allow physicians to use what is referred to as convalescent plasma collected from recovered COVID-19 patients in an attempt to treat patients who are critically ill from the virus that was declared a pandemic. The idea is that the plasma, which contains antibodies against the virus, will be administered into patients who are critically ill. In a guidance announced Tuesday, the FDA said it is possible that the treatment could be effective against the infection, although there is scant evidence to support that as of now. The use of convalescent plasma has been studied in outbreaks of other respiratory infections, including the 2009-2010 H1N1 influenza virus pandemic, 2003 SARS-CoV-1 epidemic, and the 2012 MERS-CoV epidemic.
https://www.biospace.com/article/fda-expedites-use-of-convalescent-plasma-treatment-for-covid-19-patients-with-life-threatening-conditions/
New York Governor Cuomo says:
Peak number of cases is still 2 to 3 weeks away in New York
“We’ve procured about 7,000 ventilators. We need, as a minimum, other 30,000 ventilators. This is a critical and desperate need for ventilators [..] We need them in 14 days. Fema is sending 400 ventilators only. Federal action is needed to address this now through the Federal Defense Production Act”
“The numbers are higher in New York because it started here first, it has a lot of international travelers and has high density, but you will see this in cities all across the country, and in suburban communities. Where we are today, you’ll be in 4 weeks or 6 weeks.
Probably “hundreds of thousands of people” have already had Covid-19, didn’t know they had it, and recovered. Should be tested for antibodies so they could go back to work and keep the economy going.
https://cadenaser.com/emisora/2020/03/25/radio_granada/1585172336_841204.html
“They discover several ways to treat severe coronavirus symptoms in Italians and Spanish A doctor from Granada explains to his team how the ferritin level alerts us to a more or less serious condition so that a supply of corticosteroids has already been affected in the second phase of the disease characterized by inflammation
The coronavirus is so new that there is no specific treatment. However, the observation of hundreds of clinical histories of those infected by covid-19 in Italy and Spain, where the genetic configuration of its inhabitants has some specificities, has allowed the identification of several parameters, visible in blood tests, that indicate a possible predisposition of the patient to suffer the disease with greater severity. This pathway can specifically help treat infected young people.”
“These works of the Italian and Spanish scientific community, mainly, point to the immunological response of the organism as a matter to study to try to understand the effect of the virus on the human body; to correct the symptoms of the disease; and even to explain why covid-19 is more deadly in Italy and Spain than in other parts of the world. This mortality could be related, according to these observations, to the genetic specificities of the Latin-Mediterranean population.”
Granada is a Spanish province
The increase in ferritin concentration is less dependent on the concentration of iron, because ferritin, as an acute phase protein, increases nonspecifically in inflammation, in the course of infection, in cancer and liver dysfunction.
“As a result of these observations of specialists, hospitals in Granada began to treat people with coronavirus, for example, corticosteroids, when the disease reaches its initial stage.”
Probably it is about weakening the immune response when it is too violent (inflammation develops rapidly).
Adelaida
That is a fairly good comment!
Rgds
J.-P. D.
To share with medical friends in the first line of fight against the coronavirus!!!
Adelaida, hypertension threatens to exacerbate Covid-19 disease.
Roy…if hydroxychloroquine works on these infections it means they are not caused by a virus. Hydroxychloroquine is an antimalarial drug that targets parasites in the blood. It has also been used against lupus and rhumatoid arthitis.
I have argued that covid has not been isolated, purified, or photographed with an electron microscope as required for identification. Nor has HIV, SARS, or H1N1. Since HIV, “it must be a virus”-type researchers have been using the viral loading method to identify a virus and that is fraught with problems.
For one, the viral loading method is based on converting RNA found in people with infections to DNA, then amplifying the DNA using the PCR method for DNA amplification. The founder of that test, Karry Mullis has claimed the method cannot be used to identify a virus since it amplifies all DNA.
For another, you would only need to use such a method if you could not find the virus itself. Why would you take such a circuitous route if you had the virus isolated? You could simple take the DNA from the virus directly. In the early days of viral loading testing they claimed the amount of RNA was so small they could not detect it, so they converted what was there to DNA and amplified it using PCR.
Still no virus, as Mullis claimed. So what are they using for proof of a virus…inference!!! There’s no proof the two are associated. Ergo, you cannot claim a virus using the scientific method, you can only infer one.
The main purpose of RNA is to go into a cell nucleus, somehow unwind 3 cm of DNA wound on a bobbin, and read a specific code in the DNA chain so it can use the coded message as a recipe to create specific amino acids, the precursors of proteins.
How it knows how to get there is another mystery. And how it can locate the right code is another. If natural selection is so smart, why was the RNA not given the codes?
The complexity of that process, along with the fact that DNA contains codes for creating proteins of different types should shut all evolutionists up. There is no way that natural selection, whatever that is, has the ability to create codes. I won’t get into who created the codes but it took the human brain to create the ASCII code, a basis for interfacing the human language to the computer processor language. Obviously, those codes were put there by some kind of intelligence.
Anyway, taking RNA samples present in a specimen from a sick person and claiming the RNA came from a virus is entirely ingenuous. Or downright fraudulent, depending on how you perceive it. The scientist who discovered HIV, Luc Montagnier, admitted he did not isolate, purify, or see HIV with an electron microscope, he inferred it based on strands of RNA in a sample from a person with AIDS.
However, Montagnier can be excused since he did not claim HIV caused AIDS, he claimed there had to be a cofactor. It took him over 30 years to announce the cofactor, which amounts to lifestyle. Peter Duesberg claimed that in 1983. Montagnier now claims HIV cannot harm a healthy immune system and that AIDS is caused by oxidative stress due to a high risk lifestyle or poverty, where people lack good nutrition, clean drinking water, and freedom from parasitic infections like malaria.
Since the HIV debacle, we have been inundated with a series of viruses identified by the same indirect method. With the most recent, covid19, it is now being claimed that an antimalarial drug will help cure it. Not possible since a virus has nothing to do with a parasite. It would appear we have an entirely different infectious agent than what is being claimed.
The problem with the viral theory is how much it distracts from investigations of the current infection if it’s not viral in nature. Scientists who have the power currently have virus-on-the-brain. They are blinded to other possibilities just as they were blinded from seeing that HIV had nothing to do with AIDS, as Peter Duesberg claimed at the outset.
Duesberg pointed out the obvious with HIV. In 1983, when AIDS hit the big time, most people by far dying of AIDS were young male homosexuals. Duesberg claimed there is no known virus that can single out males, never mind younger males. Rather than considering his logic, the establishment busted him.
Where have I heard this before? Ah, yes, in climate science.
“Hydroxychloroquine is an antimalarial drug that targets parasites in the blood. It has also been used against lupus and rhumatoid arthitis.”
Hydroxychlorocquine has similar effects to steroids. So it works on the immune system. It can slow down inflammation at the beginning of an infection. The body must have time to recognize the new threat.
Hydroxychloroquine certainly won’t work in every case and many people will die from acute respiratory failure.
When pneumonia already develops, you can give only plasma from a patient cured of Covid-19 and count on a miracle.
ren…”When pneumonia already develops, you can give only plasma from a patient cured of Covid-19 and count on a miracle”.
I’m having trouble accepting that covid19 is a new virus that is far more serious than anything we have seen for 100 years. I fully accept that something very contagious is going on with a lot of people.
That was the same story peddled for nearly 40 years about HIV and some people still believe that. It has been debunked by the scientist who discovered HIV who has reduced it to a harmless virus to a healthy immune system. Peter Duesberg said that nearly 40 years ago and they ruined his career.
If this virus is real then let’s see the evidence that it has been properly isolated, purified, and photographed with a size marker on an electron microscope. Then let’s see the evidence that it can produce the same infection in another organism. That’s the test for a virus, not waving one’s hands in the air and making rash claims.
Back in the early 20th century there was a serious outbreak of pellagra in the southern United States. A US health officially sent to investigated immediately claimed it was due to poor diet. He was ignored and researchers spent 30 years looking for a viral cause. It was not till it was discovered that pellagra is due to shortage of a B-vitamin that the stupidity ended. It was a nutritional problem, those who developed pellagra were eating largely a corn-based diet.
How long must we endure the current stupidity till someone produces the required evidence to support the viral theory or someone steps up a proves there is no such virus.
If there is no virus, then wasting time researching this infection as a virus will get in the way of people looking for the real cause, as with HIV and AIDS. Montagnier, who discovered HIV, now claims AIDS is oxidative stress related to lifestyle. Most of the medical establishment is still looking for a cure for HIV, which has never been isolated, purified, or photographed.
BTW…there is a lot of money available for HIV research and I’m sure this covid thing will be very lucrative for scientists. The US spends trillions of dollars on HIV research.
Germany already predicts that there will be no ICU places. This virus is very dangerous because of the speed of its spread.
In countries where the number of infections is increasing rapidly, the weather is very variable. There are large temperature jumps from day to day. Lows are now in Italy, Spain, in the states of New York, Washington, California and New Jersey.
Gordon Robertson seven days after the first symptoms, acute respiratory failure already occurs. It’s very fast. The patient suffocates and panics. All additional diseases are revealed.
In Poland, we have two cases of people who were on quarantine one day, the next day they were in a hopeless condition.
Two other doctors who died from the Covid-19 epidemic: they are, it is learned from the National Federation of Medical Orders (Fnomceo), Dr. Dino Pesce of Genoa and Dr. Anna Maria Focarete, provincial councilor of the Italian Federation of medical doctors general (Fimmg) of Lecco. The total of deaths among white coats thus rises to 43.
https://www.repubblica.it/cronaca/2020/03/22/news/coronavirus_le_ultime_notizie-251944849/
United Kingdom continues to disregard the virus. The number of fatalities is increasing.
March 27 (GMT)
5909 new cases and 919 new deaths in Italy. Highest number of new deaths since the beginning of the epidemic in Italy. 46 doctors have died to date (with 4 additional deaths today). 6414 health workers have tested positive.
Manifestly, it is still possible for the dumbest, the most ignorant of all persons having ever posted at Roy Spencer’s blog, to produce his absolutely unscientific, disingenuous and unsane meaning.
” I have argued that covid has not been isolated, purified, or photographed with an electron microscope as required for identification. Nor has HIV, SARS, or H1N1. ”
You need no more than a few seconds to find out – one more time – that Robertson permanently discredits, denigrates and lies.
Here is one link to very recent work:
https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC7045880/
Identification of Coronavirus Isolated from a Patient in Korea with COVID-19 (2020)
In the paper’s abstract you read:
Objectives
Following reports of patients with unexplained pneumonia at the end of December 2019 in Wuhan, China, the causative agent was identified as coronavirus (SARS-CoV-2), and the 2019 novel coronavirus disease was named COVID-19 by the World Health Organization. Putative patients with COVID-19 have been identified in South Korea, and attempts have been made to isolate the pathogen from these patients.
Methods
Upper and lower respiratory tract secretion samples from putative patients with COVID-19 were inoculated onto cells to isolate the virus. Full genome sequencing and electron microscopy were used to identify the virus.
Results
The virus replicated in Vero cells and cytopathic effects were observed. Full genome sequencing showed that the virus genome exhibited sequence homology of more than 99.9% with SARS-CoV-2 which was isolated from patients from other countries, for instance China. Sequence homology of SARS-CoV-2 with SARS-CoV, and MERS-CoV was 77.5% and 50%, respectively. Coronavirus-specific morphology was observed by electron microscopy in virus-infected Vero cells.
*
Another example, dated 2004:
Probing the structure of the SARS coronavirus using scanning electron microscopy
In the paper’s abstract you read:
A novel coronavirus, SARS-CoV, has been confirmed to be the aetiological agent of SARS. Transmission electron microscope (TEM) images played an important role in initial identification of the pathogen. In order to obtain greater morphological detail of SARS-CoV than could be obtained by TEM, we used ultra-high resolution scanning electron microscopy (SEM) to image the virus particles.
We show here the three-dimensional appearance of SARS-CoV. Enhanced detail of the ultrastructure reveals the trimeric structure of the 10-20 nm spikes on the virion surface. These results contribute to characterization of the SARS agent and development of new antiviral strategies.
*
Robertson is the prototype of the antiscience person, who tries all the time to distort and annihilate scientific results – even those of Einstein and of all today’s scientists who conduct(ed) experiments proving Einstein’s theoretic results.
*
I fully understand why Roy Spencer, as the owner and manager of this blog, decided years ago to keep a guy like Do-ug Cot-ton away from his blog (what of course never succeeded).
But in my humble opinion, persons like Robertson damage the reputation of his blog far more.
I hope that a vast majority of this blog’s silent readers understand the permanent manipulation generated by this thoroughly disgusting person.
J.-P. Dehottay in Germany
Here is a sort by ‘New deaths’ of today’s worldometers’ CoV data:
Cntry | Cases | New c | Deaths | New deaths
Italy | 86498 | 5909 | 9134 | 919
Spain | 64285 | 6499 | 4940 | 575
France | 32964 | 3809 | 1995 | 299
USA | 100514 | 15079 | 1546 | 251
UK | 14543 | 2885 | 759 | 181
The US and Italy both bypassed China concerning the cases.
It won’t take much time for the US and Uk to bypass all countries above them by death toll.
You might ask: ‘ Ooops, J.-P. !? Where is your Germoney? ‘
If we now sort worldometers’ CoV data by ‘New cases’ we obtain this top 5:
Cntry | Cases | New cases | Deaths | New d
USA | 100514 | 15079 | 1546 | 251
Germany | 50871 | 6933 | 342 | 75
Spain | 64285 | 6499 | 4940 | 575
Italy | 86498 | 5909 | 9134 | 919
France | 32964 | 3809 | 1995 | 299
and you suddenly see Germany back, just below the US.
But the true US level you first see in worldometers’s CoV stat when California passes over 0:00 PDT. You then click on ‘yesterday’ to see the day’s final status there.
*
Why is this ‘New cases’ stat so important?
What we experience since a while in Western Europe – in Italy, Spain, France, less in Germany – is that this number tells us about the stress factor in the hospitals.
The more new cases you have, the more people need immediate intubation (these days, lots of them aged below 40), the less places you have in intensive care, the less ventilators you have.
In these three countries, this recently became so tremendous that medicine personnel had to decide whom to keep alive, and whom to unfortunately have to give up! Again: this is a terrifying issue.
In France, patients were moved by airplane or high speed trains from Alsace hospitals down to the Bordeaux region (900 km away) in order to obtain needed assistance.
And again and again: hydroxychloroquine won’t help much because it can’t save right now faster than the virus kills: SARS-CoV-2 is less harmful than SARS(-CoV-1), MERS or Ebola, but by dimensions more than malaria or the seasonal flu. It might be a tool for winning future fights agains virus outbreaks.
*
Due to the fact that Trump underestimated the SARS-CoV-2 since its very beginning:
https://wattsupwiththat.com/2020/03/25/covid-19-updated-data-implies-that-uk-modelling-hugely-overestimates-the-expected-death-rates-from-infection/#comment-2948211
the US inevitably will have to face similar if not even worse situations.
@Bindidon,
Most of the time I ignore know-it-alls like you.
You are the last person anyone should listen to when lives are at risk. Please stop the dis-information.
P. Morcombe alias gallopingcamel
You are the one who has nothing to say: you did not contradict anything of the comment you replied to. Where is the ‘dis-information’ you claim about?
Let me inform you by the way that the French government has decided to approve hydroxychloroquine as a palliative for CoViD-19: in fact, only to avoid allegations that it has not done everything possible.
We will then see ‘in situ’ what Raoult’s proposal really is worth.
*
Even a French politician belonging to the extreme left-wing (‘La France Insoumise’) managed yesterday to interview Raoult!
Maybe he gives today an interview to the French Neofascists as well?
Is that your idea of how a valuable scientist shall behave?
Gracias no!
*
You have no idea of what happens in Europe. Even in the rich Germany, hospital managers don’t know how to obtain FFP-2 masks for their medical collaborators: all that stuff had been bought in… China.
People like you, talking about ‘when lives are at risk’, should be immediately sent to Italy, where over 50 doctors have died since the beginning of February, because they had to care for highly endangered, intubated CoViD-19 patients without protective clothing: none was available for them.
*
You wrote: ” Most of the time I ignore know-it-alls like you. ”
Feel free to definitely ignore me, Sir! No problem for me.
J.-P. Dehottay
@Bindidon,
You are a sick puppy with no shame.
Even if Didier Raoult turns out to be wrong about his drug cocktail your ad hominem attacks on him and Donald Trump are “Hate Speech”.
Please apologize.
“You are the last person anyone should listen to when lives are at risk. Please stop the dis-information.”
Exactly what should be said to Trump.
People should listen to their doctor and their governor.
Yesterday Trump suggested he may deny help for a state if he percieves that its governor criticizes the federal govt and by extension him.
IOW hes fine with using his power to screw the PEOPLE of Michigan if he feels slighted by their governor.
They should remember this come November.
As long as there is no vaccine, the only real remedy is plasma from a person who has antibodies. The virus is not transmitted through blood. Otherwise, the lives of around 20% of those infected are at risk.
The Mount Sinai Health System this week plans to initiate a procedure known as plasmapheresis, where the antibodies from patients who have recovered from COVID-19 will be transferred into critically ill patients with the disease, with the expectation that the antibodies will neutralize it.
The process of using antibody-rich plasma from COVID-19 patients to help others was used successfully in China, according to a state-owned organization, which reported that some patients improved within 24 hours, with reduced inflammation and viral loads, and better oxygen levels in the blood.
Mount Sinai is collaborating with the New York Blood Center and the New York State Department of Healths Wadsworth Center laboratory in Albany, with guidance from the U.S. Food and Drug Administration, and expects to begin implementing the treatment later this week.
We are hoping to identify patients who can provide the antibodies, says Dennis S. Charney, MD, Anne and Joel Ehrenkranz Dean of the Icahn School of Medicine at Mount Sinai, and President for Academic Affairs, Mount Sinai Health System. We are at the front lines in fighting this pandemic and making discoveries that will help our patients.
Late last week, researchers at the Icahn School of Medicine, in collaboration with scientists in Australia and Finland, were among the first to create an antibody test that detects the diseases antibodies in a persons blood. Development of the enzyme-linked immunosorbent assay (ELISA) was led by Florian Krammer, PhD, Professor of Microbiology, in collaboration with Viviana A. Simon, MD, PhD, Professor of Microbiology and Medicine (Infectious Diseases). Dr. Krammer, a renowned influenza researcher, recently made this so-called recipe available to other laboratories around the world so they can replicate it during the pandemic. In January, his lab was quickly retooled to begin studying COVID-19.
In addition to its widespread use in plasmapheresis, the antibody test will provide experts with an accurate infection rate so they can track the trajectory of the disease. The test will help identify health care workers who are already immune to the disease, who can work directly with infectious patients, and it can also help scientists understand how the human immune system reacts to the virus.
The new assay uses recombinant or manufactured antigens from the spike protein on the surface of the SARS-CoV-2 virus. That protein helps the virus enter cells, and it is a key target in the immune reaction against the virus, as the body creates antibodies that recognize the protein and seek to destroy the virus. The researchers also isolated the short piece of the spike protein called the receptor-binding domain (RBD), which the virus uses to attach to cells it tries to invade. The scientists then used cell lines to produce large quantities of the altered spike proteins and RBDs.
According to Dr. Krammer and his co-authors, the assay is sensitive and specific, and allows for the screening and identification of COVID-19 in human plasma/serum as soon as three days after the onset of symptoms. The antibodies were derived from three patients who had the disease. The studys control participantswho did not have COVID-19 but had other viruses, including the common coldranged in age from 20 to 70.
Dr. Krammer says his preliminary findings also show that humans have no natural immunity to the SARS-CoV-2 virus, which would help explain why it spreads so quickly. But once the antibody sets in humans do become protected. He also says that at this early stage in the research, there is no evidence that people can lose their immunity and become re-infected.
Read more stories about Mount Sinai and COVID-19
https://inside.mountsinai.org/blog/mount-sinai-to-begin-the-transfer-of-covid-19-antibodies-into-critically-ill-patients/
ren
Thanks for the info.
J.-P. D.
NEW YORK (from New York Governor Cuomo daily briefing):
Apex of hospital need could be in 21 days from now in New York
All hospitals need to increase capacity by 50%, some by 100%
Need a total of 140,000 hospital beds. Currently have 53,000 (an additional 87,000 hospital beds are needed)
Need a total of 40,000 ICU beds. Currently have 3,000, with 3,000 ventilators. An additional 37,000 ICU beds are needed
Will use college dormitories, hotels, nursing homes, and all possible space by converting it to hospitals if needed in April
138,376 people have been tested
Schools will stay closed for an additional 2 weeks after April 1, to then reassess the situation and extend again if needed. 180 days requirement has been waived
This is not going to be a short deployment […] This is going to be weeks, and weeks, and weeks […] This is a rescue mission you are on, to save lives. […] You are living a moment in history that will change and forge character
Look at the weather in the northeast US and you will understand that the virus will hit hard.
https://files.tinypic.pl/i/01001/yzzkz7r6f7vm.png
Why the need for ventilators?
The medical machines that keep patients breathing are much in demand amid the respiratory illness’ outbreak, which in the most serious cases attacks the lungs.
Louisiana’s governor said on Friday that New Orleans could run out of ventilators by 2 April.
The Society of Critical Care Medicine has estimated that 960,000 intensive care patients will require a ventilator at some point during the US coronavirus outbreak.
New York has requested 30,000 ventilators, but Mr Trump said during Friday’s briefing he felt that was a “high” estimate.
https://www.bbc.com/news/52071611
The weekly multiplier for this is now well above 5. Last Saturday morning there were 275 deaths and now over 1700. The mortality rate for this is about 0.2% but it is so contagious it means high numbers. New Orleans appears to be the next hotbed and I suspect San Francisco and LA will be following. I suspect other cities like Charleston, Savannah, Ashville to become smaller hotbeds.
If you assume half of America will contract Covid 19 and a mortality rate of 0.2% I would make an assumption of needing about 0.8% of those contracted might need ventilators. That would put the number at 1.4 million. I think the Society of Critical Care Medicine might be underestimating a little but that’s a pretty good number. They are estimating about 70 million hydroxychloroquine tablets shipped by end of April. They will be able to treat about 3.5 million patients with those I believe.
Mortality rate has been 2% or more. Hospital treatment has been needed for 10-15%.
No, the mortality rate is about 0.2%. There are over 800,000 actual Corona Virus infections in the US, not just over 100,000 that is being reported. The testing is not anywhere near the actual number. Science Magazine article applied Bayesian statistics to the outbreak in China early on. They found that only about 14% of the actual cases were being reported. 86% were not being reported. Back calculations showed an actual mortality rate of about 0.2%, which makes sense. The problem is this thing is highly contagious.
Among the high testing countries, the lowest mortality rate was in S Korea, and it was 3%.
https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/south-korea/
Other countries like Italy and Spain have had much higher than 3%.
Over the next 5 weeks if the weekly multiplier did not start decreasing you’d be looking at 6.2M deaths. However, I think the upper bound on deaths is 600,000 and if the treatments start working much less than half of that.
As demonstrated in east Asia, the social distancing is what is limiting the mortality, and if implimented will likely do so in the rest of the world.
The social distancing reduces the transmission rate but will not stop it. The only thing that will stop it is a cure.
This is just speculation but I think the virus is being heavily transmitted by the gay community. If you look at where the hot spots in the world are right now they are places like Lombardy, Italy (Milan), New York, New Orleans, Seattle, and San Francisco. All of these places have concentrated gay communities. Also, Doctors have been reporting that it appears to affect more men than women. Could it be because of the higher proportion being infected in the gay community? Gay men are much more promiscuous than gay women and many more of them. Don’t know. Probably won’t get accurate reporting on this. This can also explain the much higher transmission rates in Lombardy and NY. Also, could gays be more affected by this because of suppressed immune systems from long-term HIV infection?
Stephen Paul Anderson
CoViD-19’s European spread started in the Italian Lombardy because this region has an extremely high amount of very old people, and not because of any gay community. 90 % of the people who died there dur to the virus were over 80 years old!
The greatest infections in both South Korea and France were due to the fact that in both countries, Pentecotist churchs (or shall we name them sects?) invited biggest amounts of their adherents (In France: 2,000 of them), and that despite the fact that the infection danger was known to them, because their own environment was infected already!
And what do you think, Anderson? Were Wuhan and Hubei in your eyes Chinese gay megacenters as well?
Do you think that the huge Mardi gras infection in New Orleans is due to gays?
What will you invent the next time?
I’m not a gay at all! But I find your discriminating view absolutely disgusting.
J.-P. Dehottay, Germany
Bindi,
I have nothing against gay people. I’m not passing judgment either. Just trying to point something out. There are old gay people too. However, I’m not claiming it only kills gay people. I’m speculating that the gay community might be accelerating the transmission in these areas. And, it can be adversely affecting older gay white men, could it not? Especially older gay white men with suppressed immune systems because of long-term HIV illness.
Also, have you ever been to Mardi Gras? You just made my point.
Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19)
Daily Data Summary
The data in this report reflect events and activities as of March 27, 2020 at 4:00 PM.
All data in this report are preliminary and subject to change as cases continue to be investigated.
These data include cases in NYC residents and foreign residents treated in NYC facilities.
https://www1.nyc.gov/assets/doh/downloads/pdf/imm/covid-19-daily-data-summary.pdf
“It takes you five, seven, 10 days — usually more than one week to develop a robust antibody response,” said Isabella Eckerle, a virologist at Geneva Centre for Emerging Viral Diseases. “And the first week is the week when people shed the virus in the highest concentrations.”
https://wattsupwiththat.com/2020/03/28/the-next-frontier-in-coronavirus-testing-identifying-the-full-scope-of-the-pandemic-not-just-individual-infections/#comment-2949288
Thanks for your rational approach to what looks like the biggest health crisis since the 1918/1919 pandemic that killed 4,500 residents of Philadelphia in a single week.
The 2009 H1N1 pandemic started with 2 cases on April 11, 2009 rising to 3 million cases 16 weeks later. At that point (July 26, 2009) the rate of increase dropped dramatically yet another 57 million cases occurred over the next nine months:
https://academic.oup.com/cid/article/52/suppl_1/S75/499147
In 2009 there were no travel bans or “stay at home” directives yet COVID-19 is outperforming the 2009 H1N1 growth rate. By my reckoning this is “Week 10” in the USA and by “Week 13” we will have 3 million cases. It took three weeks more for the 2009 pandemic to hit that number.
Thus COVID-19 seems to be more infectious than the 2009 H1N1 flu but that is not the major issue. The Dow Jones Industrial Average rose steadily throughout the 2009 pandemic because no government action was necessary to respond to a disease with a death rate of 0.02%.
The real issue is the death rate which could range from 1.5% (USA) to 15% (Italy). Even taking the lower number for the USA we could have 3 million cases by April 17 and 45,000 deaths.
The breathtaking growth rate means we can’t wait a year for a vaccine of unknown effectiveness. We need treatment breakthroughs that can be delivered within weeks. Thanks to the efforts of scientists around the world there are several promising therapies.
As told last week, I decided to daily collect data presented by Worldometers for the worldwide Corona virus situation.
The stat started with Monday 23. Among other things I collected the death toll percentage per cases for five countries:
Germany 0.5 (%)
USA____ 1.4
France_ 4.9
Spain__ 7.1
Italy__ 9.9
I’m not able to tell the exact reason for the differences among the five, excepted that Germany has tested much more than all others (including the US).
If you now think that this ratio keeps stable, sorry: you are wrong. Here is the list for yesterday, March 27:
Germany_ 0.7 (%)
USA_____ 1.6
France__ 6.1
Spain___ 7.8
Italy__ 10.6
The ratio increases every day, for all five countries!
For sure no very good news.
J.-P. D.
The reason Italy’s “percentage” is going up is that their total number of cases is going up but is underreported. They have over 5,000,000 cases now.
I am a physicist who likes numerical analysis so you need to take my views about medical matters with a grain of salt.
Nevertheless, your explanation makes perfect sense. The death rate in Italy is not ten times what we are seeing in the USA. Italy has first world medical institutions.
As of yesterday Italy reported 356,406 cases and 21,682 deaths for a mortality rate of 6% or about four times the US rate. When the dust settles I suspect we will find out that Italy’s mortality rate is under 2% when the number of cases is corrected.
It is plausible that Italy has more than 1 million cases right now and your 5 million figure is not crazy.
Germany has only 200,000 total cases. Their transmission rate has been much slower than Italy’s.
The only numbers on that worldometer site that are reasonably accurate are the death numbers.
That is except for China. None of their numbers are factual. They shut it down weeks ago. I think they have hundreds of millions infected.
What people like you think, Anderson, is absolutely irrelevant.
Like Robertson, you are a boaster inventing all what fits to his egocentric narrative.
Never and never would you be able to provide a proof of what you brazenly pretend.
J.-P. Dehottay
Yeah, OK.
@Bindidon,
The PRC (Peoples Republic of China) is under-reporting their Wuhan virus cases.
Stephen Paul Anderson doubts the PRC numbers as I do. Totalitarian regimes can’t handle the truth which is why they invented propaganda.
P. Morcombe
Your reply is of zero value for me: where did I please refer to PRC data? Since when do I care about Chinese numbers???
You seem to be so heavily busy with your own thoughts that you lack time to read what other people write.
I’m talking about this, and about nothing else (data provided by Worldometers, no link possible in this blog):
28.03.20 | Cases | New | Deaths | New | Deaths/Cases (%)
Germany | 57695 | 6824 | 433 | 82 | 0.8
USA | 123578 | 19452 | 2221 | 525 | 1.8
France | 37575 | 4611 | 2314 | 319 | 6.2
Spain | 73235 | 7516 | 5982 | 844 | 8.2
Italy | 92472 | 5974 | 10023 | 889 | 10.8
Nobody knows by how much the cases were underestimated here and there.
BUT I am no paranoid person doubting all the time about everything what differs from my narrative, and hence prefer to trust in these numbers until they become scientifically proven wrong.
And it is evident at European level: not the death toll is here the problem, but the new cases are, because they become more and more, and… heavier and heavier.
Why, do you think, are most endangered cases now transferred by airplane from Italy and France to our superrich Germany because we still have some idle ICU places for them?
Do you think we’re just playing some game here?
Are we really on the same planet, Mr Morcombe? I’m not quite sure.
Basta ya!
You lied about Didier Raoult and you know it. Until you can “Man Up” and admit it, you will continue with your pathetic drivel.
I own you!
P. Morcombe
One more time, the blogs refuses a comment, some keyword will make a problem.
Here is my definitely last reply to you:
https://drive.google.com/file/d/1MuaWiAQizR4BlIjoJndQg8nl5x-hRpek/view
J.-P. Dehottay
GC,
Also, Italy might be overreporting their death numbers. I mean that they might be categorizing deaths due to Corona Virus when the deaths are actually due to some other cause. Again, just speculating. No way their death rate is 10%.
We may have that here in the USA . There were Internet stories about doctors being pressured to attribute deaths to COVID-19 and of course nobody should take that sort of thing seriously.
Then “Mother Jones” debunked the idea:
https://www.motherjones.com/politics/2020/03/theres-a-facebook-coronavirus-post-going-viral-claiming-to-be-from-stanford-dont-believe-it/
Things that Mother Jones debunks often turn out to be true. It will be interesting to see how this plays out.
Check rates of covid-19 infection for lupus and arthritis patients already on hydroxychloroquine
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If you haven’t done the research to find out exactly how hydroxychloroquine works and why a medication that was developed 65 years ago to fight malaria has been so successful against SARS-CoV-2, both in laboratory tests and in hospitals around the world, here’s why:
Hydroxychloroquine impedes the ability of the SARS-CoV-2 virus to replicate by allowing zinc, which interferes with the replication process, to more easily penetrate the cell wall and attack the virus inside the cell. Hydroxychloroquine is an ionophore that acts as a gateway for the zinc ions to more easily pass through the cell membrane and prevent the virus from hijacking the RNA sequencing mechanism of the infected cell in order to replicate itself…which the virus cannot do on its own.
In this video, Dr. Roger Seheult, Pulmonologist and Associate Professor at UC-Riverside, explains exactly how hydroxychloroquine allows zinc to penetrate infected cells to prevent the Covid-19 virus from replicating. Extremely interesting, invaluable knowledge:
https://m.youtube.com/watch?feature=share&v=U7F1cnWup9M
Here is something you should also know; it is often not the virus that is killing people, it is an overactive immune response triggered by this virus, called a “cytokine storm”, that kills them. A cytokine storm is when the body’s immune system becomes over-stimulated and, in this case, floods the lungs with so many pro-inflammatory cytokines that healthy cells as well as infected cells are indiscriminately attacked and damaged, causing the lungs to fill with fluid…killing the patient.
Hydroxychloroquine regulates the immune system response and prevents too many pro-inflammatory cytokines from being released at one time. That is why a drug originally developed for treating malaria, hydroxychloroquine, is now prescribed to people with autoimmune diseases such as lupus and rheumatoid arthritis. HCQ helps protect healthy cells from an overactive immune system and, in the process of treating the coronavirus, helps prevent the lungs from being further damaged.
Azithromycin is prescribed with the hydroxychloroquine to control secondary infections attacking a compromised respiratory system. It has also been demonstrated in clinical trials that azithromycin has antiviral properties of its own. The pairing of these two drugs along with a zinc supplement is helping almost everyone that is given these drugs recover and go back to their homes and their families.
In regards to the safety of this so-called “dangerous” drug, hydroxychloroquine has been on the market for 65 years and is in every pharmacy in America. It is used to not only treat malaria, but also lupus and other autoimmune diseases. It has an excellent safety rating and less than one in 5000 patients using the drug for five years has any issues with macular or retinal toxicity, it’s most common side effect. In the majority of cases, those symptoms have been found to resolve themselves after the patient has discontinued use of hydroxychloroquine
Doctors have prescribed this drug for six decades and know everything there is to know about the drug, it’s side effects and interaction with other drugs. Hydroxychloroquine is on the World Health Organizations (WHO) List of Essential Medicines, “the safest and most effective medicines needed in a health system and not even on the list of the top 100 FDA approved drugs found to have side-effects relating to macular or retinal toxicity.
https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hydroxychloroquine
Not looking good for this drug..
https://www.yahoo.com/finance/news/column-experts-lose-enthusiasm-chloroquine-215114339.html
Can Trump be wrong, who would have thought?