Hurricane Sandy’s interaction with an approaching trough and cold front from the west looks like it will provide a near repeat of the infamous Perfect Storm event, almost exactly 21 years to the day that the Andrea Gail was lost on October 28, 1991.
Hurricane Sandy’s “attempted” path would be to recurve off the East coast and head out to sea, as most East Coast hurricanes do. But the chance timing of the approaching upper level trough and cold front, which would favor some amount of coastal storm development anyway, will merge with Sandy and drag her back to a landfall somewhere (it appears at this point) from Chesapeake Bay to Long Island.
The instability caused by the clashing cold air mass and the warm, moist tropical air associated with Sandy will create a massive nor’easter, and the resulting storm has already been dubbed Frankenstorm Sandy since it will ruin Halloween trick-or-treating for many in the mid-Atlantic states and New England.
The high wind field will cover a large area, with highest winds not necessarily near the low center, since this will not be a hurricane per se. Large, probably record-setting amounts of rain can be expected in some localized areas wherever atmospheric lifting becomes maximized and persistent.
Wet snow can be expected on the western periphery of the storm, which right now looks to be from West Virginia through western Pennsylvania and extreme western New York state.
A 100-Year Storm?
Some are already saying this will be a 100-year storm. But this is a rather meaningless term. If it means the worst storm to hit New England in 100 years, I would doubt that will be the case, since there have been many epic nor’easters.
It is more likely that a few locations will see 100-year class precipitation totals, or maybe record low barometric pressures, and maybe even record high wind speeds.
Nevertheless, the formation of this particular storm will indeed be unusual, owing to the unusual combination of both a pre-existing tropical hurricane with extratropical cyclogenesis. There is little doubt that the resulting storm will indeed be historic, if not a record-setter, in its geographic extent and intensity.
The route cause of this is the negative ao/nao atmospheric circulation pattern which has been the recent trend over the past 3 or 4 years.
I have said for years that this type of atmospheric circulation will be more of the norm as this decade proceeds, due in large part to the very low solar activity and the accumulation of sub-solar activity years, going back to year 2005.
This type of atmospheric circulation having more major climate conseqences for the N.H., as this decade proceeds.
Our company will have much more to say about this whole process, in the near future.
Just look at the ao/nao index since Oct.01, and you will see what I am talking about.
Of course it has varied from positive to neg. but the trend is toward the negative side, and this trend started late last decade.
Monitoring and Data > Monitoring Weather & Climate > Indices and Forecasts > Daily Arctic Oscillation Index
The daily AO index is constructed by projecting the daily (00Z) 1000mb height anomalies poleward of 20°N onto the loading pattern of the AO. Please note that year-round monthly mean anomaly data has been used to obtain the loading pattern of the AO (Methodology). Since the AO has the largest variability during the cold sesaon, the loading pattern primarily captures characteristics of the cold season AO pattern.
The daily AO index and its forecasts using MRF and Ensemble mean forecast data are shown for the previous 120 days as indicated and they are normalized by standard deviation of the monthly AO index from 1979 to 2000. A 3-day running mean is applied for the forecast indices.
Observations
MRF AO forecasts
Ensemble mean AO forecasts
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Vertical cross section of NH polar vortex
AO composites
Monthly mean AO index since January 1950
Graphical format (All calendar months, JFM Seasonal mean)
Tabular format
Ascii format for downloading
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Shades of Hurricane Hazel, 1954, the most infamous storm in Canadian history.
what is going to make this storm quite bad are the size and duration of time.
I’m right in its projected path. I live along the coast of central New Jersey south of Sandy Hook. I hope it blows out to sea. Any chance of that, Roy? I doesn’t sound like it.
A 100-year event has a precise meaning in hydrology. It is a return period: the average elapsed time between occurrences of a particular magnitude. There are also 1, 5 10, 500 year events. The longer return periods correspond to more extreme events.
The reciprocal of a return period is an exceedance probability. A storm with a 100-year return period has a 1% probability of being exceeded in any given year.
It is important to note that the return period is an average with a variance. 100-year events can occur in back-to-back years or might be separated by 500 years.
Return periods are estimated from event records by a variety of statistical methods. The US Geological Survey and the Water Council recommend log-Pearson Type III analysis.
Unfortunately, terms like 100 year storm are bandied about by ignorant charlatans who have not the slightest understanding of the meaning of the term. It is probable that Sandy is something like a 20 year event. It is certainly nowhere near the 1938 storm that my mother experienced.
If by some accepted definition this storm turns out, for example, to be a 30-year storm, I would read this as evidence compatible with the idea that the climate has over the past 30 years passed through an extreme of some kind and has now returned to to a state more or less like its state 30 years ago, at least with respect to the variables that define that extreme.
I went here on the chance that I would get a sane appraisal devoid of the rampant hysteria. I got it. Thanks.
Dr. Spencer,
Very interesting and informative analysis in re one of Mother Nature’s more notable weather dances … at least for us laymen.
Enjoy your blog … it helps keep this seven-decade-old brain lubricated and functional.
Thank you,
Pete
Quick question: I keep hearing that the full moon will have an effect on the storm by causing higher tides. But I can’t seem to think of how the angle of incidence of the reflection of light off the moon has anything to do with increasing the gravitational pull of the moon. If I’m not mistaken, the tide is a daily cycle, not monthly. What am I missing?
“Quick question: I keep hearing that the full moon will have an effect on the storm by causing higher tides.”
I think you wil find that this is normally refered to as Spring and Neap tides. You know, the monthly varience in height (as opposed to the daily).
Christopher Game says:
October 27, 2012 at 5:18 PM
“If by some accepted definition this storm turns out, for example, to be a 30-year storm, I would read this as evidence compatible with the idea that the climate has over the past 30 years passed through an extreme of some kind and has now returned to to a state more or less like its state 30 years ago, at least with respect to the variables that define that extreme.”
This is pure gibberish that makes no sense whatsoever. Are you even an adult?
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