Correcting Recent U.S. Weekly Death Statistics for Incomplete Reporting

April 6th, 2020 by Roy W. Spencer, Ph. D.

I am seeing an increasing number of people on social media pointing to the weekly CDC death statistics which show a unusually low number of total deaths for this time of year, when one would expect the number to be increasing from COVID-19. But what most people don’t realize is that this is an artifact of the late arrival of death certificate data as gathered by the National Center for Health Statistics (NCHS).

This first came to my attention as a tweet by some researchers who were using the CDC weekly death data in a research paper pointing out the downturn in deaths in early 2020 and had to retract the paper because of the incomplete data problem. A disclaimer at the CDC website points out the incomplete nature of recent data. While they say that the new totals could be adjusted either upward or downward, it appears that the adjustments are almost always upward (i.e. recent data have a low bias in reported deaths).

As a first attempt to possibly correct for this under-reporting problem, I downloaded the data two weeks in a row (approximately March 30 and April 5, 2020) to examine how the recent data changes as new death certificate data are obtained. I realize this is only one week’s worth of changes, and each week would provide additional statistics. But the basic methodology could be applied with additional weeks of data added.

I first use the 4.5 years of reported weekly death data to compute an average seasonal cycle in deaths, with the slow upward trend included (red line in the following figure). Also shown are the total deaths reported on 2 successive weeks, showing the increase in reported deaths from late reports coming in.

Although it is not obvious in the above plot, there were new deaths reported as much as 1 year late. If we use the difference between the two successive weeks’ reports as an estimate of how many new reports will come in each week as a percentage of the average seasonal cycle, and sum them up for 52 weeks, we can get a rough estimate of what the totals will look like a year from now (the blue line in the following figure).

The blue line shows behavior quite close to that seen last year at this time. Keep in mind that Week 10 is only through early March, at which point there were only 30 COVID-19 deaths reported, which is too small a number to show up on these plots. I’m posting this as just a suggestion for those who want to analyze recent weekly death data and make some sense out of it.

It is also of interest how bad the 2017-18 flu season was compared to this season. I’m sure many medical people are aware of this, but I don’t recall it being a huge news story two years ago.


428 Responses to “Correcting Recent U.S. Weekly Death Statistics for Incomplete Reporting”

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  1. Great stuff Dr. Spencer, I had already seen the ridiculously low number a few times and was wondering what was going on.
    The Netherlands has a weekly update which has a 5 day delay. We also see the strong effect of the 2017/2018 influenza. Corona deaths will be in the same order of magnitude. The actual Corona deaths seem to be 2x the registered as Corona deaths: https://www.rivm.nl/monitoring-sterftecijfers-nederland

    • Jacques Lemiere says:

      is netherland underlockdown? one must be careful before drawing conclusion on FINAL death toll..

      • Robert says:

        Hello Jaques,
        We are under lockdown, but not 100%. We have so far seen that the untested deaths (not represented in any official numbers) may be as high as the tested deaths, due to comparing the weekly mortality rate with that of last year.

  2. Massimo PORZIO says:

    Hi Dr.Spncer,
    here in Italy some M.D. did this research last year:

    https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S1201971219303285

    I found it interesting.

    have a great day.

    Massimo

    • Gordon Robertson says:

      Massimo…”here in Italy some M.D. did this research last year:”

      Hey, Massimo, good to hear from you. Hope you are well and that Italy gets over this devastation soon.

      • Massimo PORZIO says:

        Hi Gordon,
        thank you for thoughts about me and Italy.
        Here we are still waiting for getting out of “jail”, in the meantime I’m doing the so called “smart working” at home, which I still haven’t understood what the heck “smart” it means in this context.
        Every time I need something that I don’t have at my home workshop, I got to go to my office anyways.
        Happy Easter to you and you loved ones.

        Massimo

        Happy Easter to anybody out here too!

  3. Joe Bastardi says:

    Think categories of pre-existing conditions, age, weight ( since if you have a higher body fat its likely to tax your system more) would be helpful in really digging into this disease. I have heard that they are listing COVID 19 as the cause of death in all cases if pre-existing conditions were present,

    Thanks so much for showing this Roy, Just dont let Daily Kos etal know you are doing it

  4. Thanks, Dr. Roy, good work.

    w.

  5. Adelaida says:

    So is New York’s health situation similar this week to the same week of the 2017-2018 season?
    And to some other week of the same campaign?

  6. ghalfrunt says:

    how many health workers does the normal flu kill each year? There seems to be a lot of health workers dying in Italy and UK.

  7. Ossqss says:

    One would want to quantify the effect of quarantine, social distancing, and increased hygene impacts on other sources of mortality during these times if possible.

    • Roy W. Spencer says:

      Ossqss, I fear that there will be so little hard data on this that the modelers will be able to prove anything they want given a variety of assumptions.

      • Jacques Lemiere says:

        we will compare with other countries.. at least ta male a big pictures..

        • donald penman says:

          We can compare our mortality rate in countries that have shut down to counties like Sweden which have not to determine the effectiveness of these measures at some time in the future. I don’t think that Sweden is showing a higher mortality rate at present.

          • Lewis guignard says:

            What would be better to compare would be mortality rates from COvid and mortality rates from the economic distress from lockdown.

            Those will take years to play out. Violent suicide will occur shortly, but drug abuse and alcoholism take a few years.

            Also, these lockdowns save mostly the old, but the young and poor are the ones being used as cannon fodder. Another war, same playbook.

  8. Ossqss says:

    Perhaps I am just naive, but I would expect a drop in other infectious disease vector mortality rates with the high visibility to preemptive measures in place.

    Thanks for the feedback Doc.

    We don’t have miracle cures yet, but there is always hope for help from unexpected places 😉

    https://arxiv.org/abs/2003.12444

  9. Snape says:

    @Ossqss

    [Perhaps I am just naive, but I would expect a drop in other infectious disease vector mortality rates with the high visibility to preemptive measures in place.]

    I have no doubt you are correct. The problem is trying to separate the annual noise in, for example, flu mortality from the effect of social distancing measures.

    If fewer deaths from influenza, is that because the strain was milder than previous years, or the result of actions we took?

    *********

    Seasonal deaths in England from influenza:
    2017/18: 26,408
    2018/19: 1692

    If England had implemented social distancing measures in the 2018/19 season, we might have errantly attributed those measures to the sharp decline in deaths compared to previous years.

  10. Snape says:

    Another problem was posted today at Worldometer:

    [An estimated additional 180 – 195 deaths per day occurring at home in New York City due to COVID-19 are not being counted in the official figures. “Early on in this crisis we were able to swab people who died at home, and thus got a coronavirus reading. But those days are long gone. We simply don’t have the testing capacity for the large numbers dying at home. Now only those few who had a test confirmation *before* dying are marked as victims of coronavirus on their death certificate. This almost certainly means we are undercounting the total number of victims of this pandemic,” said Mark Levine, Chair of New York City Council health committee.]

    • bootz says:

      The question should not be whether a deceased person was infected with COVID-19, it should be whether COVID-19 was the actual cause of death. I am sure that many people die while infected with the influenza, but those deaths are not recorded as influenza deaths.

  11. Dan Paquin says:

    bottom falls out……….?

    https://i.redd.it/oztmnnpwbuq41.jpg

  12. Snape says:

    @Dan Paquin

    Looks like the chart is through week 11, 2020.

    At that time, there were a total of 48 deaths in the US from COVID-19

    • Chic Bowdrie says:

      I’m not sure what point you are making, but this may be relevant:

      https://wattsupwiththat.com/2020/04/05/how-to-analyze-and-not-analyze-coronavirus-deaths/

      “I wouldn’t be surprised if at the end of the current period with most populated areas currently shut in by individual choice or government decree, once all the data are in, excess deaths for all causes are not negative relative to the 5- or 10-year average, since physical distancing should also reduce transmission of the flu (influenza and pneumonia kill about 50,000+ Americans annually)[2].”

  13. Amazed says:

    Another thing to consider. Influenza kills roughly 12,000 – 60,000 in the USA per annum. Influenza cannot kill anyone who has already been killed by another virus, can it? Has the coronavirus killed many people who would have been killed by influenza anyway? Who would know?

    As to vaccines, they exist for influenza. People still die. No way of avoiding deaths from most of the lethal viral infections, and no real cures. Doing nothing is an option. Viral infections diminish by themselves. Even Ebola just dies out.

    Time will tell if Sweden’s moderate approach is any worse than intentionally crippling national economies for possibly no real health benefit. Or Belarus.

    • Nate says:

      “As to vaccines, they exist for influenza. People still die. No way of avoiding deaths from most of the lethal viral infections, and no real cures.”

      That makes absolutely no sense.

      • Amazed says:

        What part do you not understand? Maybe you could expand, rather than just saying it makes no sense to you. Lethal infections kill by definition. Vaccines are not 100% effective for influenza. There are no cures for most viral infections.

        Do you disagree, and if so, why?

        • Midas says:

          Have you considered that the majority of people who die from the flu are those who do NOT get vaccinated?

          • Lewis guignard says:

            What if the flu vaccine is not for the flu which is going around. It happened this year ( I believe).

  14. Rune Valaker says:

    Dr. Spencer, what is the message of your latest blog post? Is it to curb your original March 29th, 2020 post where you begun: “Given the global hysteria over the COVID-19 spread …”

    The judgment in that blog post is just terrible, you should briefly leave these questions to professionals. What your readers are now questioning is whether you are as ignorant when it comes to global warming.

    • Ray says:

      How would you describe things? A calm, reasoned approach based on facts and data rather than fear?

      We absolutely have a hysteria. Perhaps a justified one, but if you can’t call what our reactions have been hysterical, nothing fits the definition.

      • Rune Valaker says:

        Dr. Spencer’s initial blog post (March 29) was an opinion piece in which he felt that the measures taken in much of the world were unnecessary. In Western countries, there is no alternative but to push this down to gain control of the infection while developing symptom-relieving drugs and eventually a vaccine.

        • Lewis guignard says:

          There are plenty of alternatives.
          Ruining lives of people who would probably live through this are what we decided to do. Why, in order to stop overloading the hospitals. Which is better?
          Teach people distancing and hygiene then send them back to their jobs is my choice.

    • Chic Bowdrie says:

      What professionals are you referring to? Would that be the WHO who bought China’s propaganda that the Wuhan virus wasn’t communicable to humans?

      I think you misunderstood Dr. Spencer’s opinion. He never “felt that the measures taken in much of the world were unnecessary.” Although he did speculate on the possibility [very real, IMO] that the cure could be worse than the disease, his main message was that all deaths might be inadvertently down simply because of all the hand-washing, etc.

      He says, “I am not trying to minimize the deaths due to COVID-19. Im trying to point out that if we are fearful of death from COVID-19, we should be even more concerned about the seasonal flu (many people are saying this), and that one benefit of the current experience might be that people will be more mindful about avoiding the spread of viruses in the future.”

      • Nate says:

        “Im trying to point out that if we are fearful of death from COVID-19, we should be even more concerned about the seasonal flu”

        That is clearly saying this is no more deadly than the seasonal flu.

        The evidence from regions with high infection rates (still < flu rates), shows that is quite wrong.

    • A Chemist says:

      Sadly, I am one of those readers now questioning. Although I do very much appreciate the blog overall, as well as the careful reporting of satellite data. I have no doubt the temperature datasets are the best out there and I am really grateful for the effort put into them.

  15. ren says:

    The question is, is it the government that is paralyzing the economy?

  16. Stevek says:

    I would really like to know how new cases of covid are occurring in areas that have been locked down for at least 2 weeks. Are the majority happening from family member to family member infection ? Or perhaps infections coming from worker to worker infection in essential businesses ? Possibly people catching it from grocery stores or drive through food ? I havent seen any data on this, I keep hoping journalist will ask Dr Birx or Dr Fauci.

  17. Ray says:

    Wouldn’t a backlog in reported deaths be spread out pretty evenly? It seems entirely plausible that deaths would drop significantly due to far fewer people driving and getting into accidents and similar reductions in violent crime.

    Conversely, perhaps the backlog right now is larger than it normally would be given bottlenecks exacerbated by the current situation.

  18. ren says:

    I am afraid that the winter attack in the northeast of the US will increase the number of Covid-19 victims.
    https://files.tinypic.pl/i/01002/r2ogbkaj2k7b.png

  19. Bri says:

    The deaths are lower and the total number of fever’s are lower because the quarantine is affecting the number of deaths from the Flu. kinsa health has a Health map that shows the same thing, the Flu deaths would normally be much higher.
    https://healthweather.us/?mode=Atypical

  20. ren says:

    How long does it take to treat a patient with Covid-19? Currently, healed patients account for just over 5% of all cases.
    https://images.tinypic.pl/i/01002/2fxd8j3zkfwh.png

    • ren says:

      “It is as if the insignificant mutations that the virus is undergoing make it much more dangerous for those who are continuously exposed”

      P. That would explain why health personnel have suffered the disease more than other groups, not only due to the risk of contagion but also due to the evolution of the pathology.

      A. V patients who developed a serious illness were elderly living in community, while those we isolated had a much less serious evolution. We believe that repeated exposure makes everything worse. It is as if the insignificant mutations that the virus is undergoing make it much more dangerous for those who are continually exposed to its presence.”

      • c1ue says:

        The last summary of Nextstrain data was that while there were nCOV mutations, there was no evidence of increased transmissibility or mortality.
        Also that nCOV appears to be much slower mutating than normal flu.
        As for your above comments: other studies show that antibodies start showing up about 1 week after symptomatic expression – so it appears that it takes at least 9-12 days before the immune system gets in gear.
        If this is true, then it seems obvious that getting a high viral load – before the immune system ramps up – is not going to be good for outcomes.

  21. Steve Case says:

    It is also of interest how bad the 2017-18 flu season was compared to this season. Im sure many medical people are aware of this, but I dont recall it being a huge news story two years ago.

    And the 2009-10 H1N1 (“Swine Flu”) pandemic:

    61 million cases*
    274,000 hospitalizations*
    12,500 deaths*

    *Estimated in the United States.

    LINK
    https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/21342903

    It wasn’t a huge news story 11 years ago either.

    • Bindidon says:

      Steve Case

      I think you need some little help: you (of course unintentionally) omitted a tiny detail in mentioning the 2009/10 H1N1:

      From 12 April 2009 to 10 April 2010…

      Oooh! That’s for a complete year.

      Shall we bookmark your today’s comment, Sir, and we compare the numbers for example at the end of January 2021?

      Then – and not before – we’ll be able to compare apples with apples, won’t we?

      J.-P. Dehottay

      • gallopingcamel says:

        @Bindidon,
        There you go again trashing people for getting their facts right.

        In 2009 the first two cases of H1N1 ‘flu were recorded on April 11. Fifteen weeks later there were 3,052,768 cases corresponding to an exponential growth rate of 2.5853 per week.

        From August 2, 2009 to April 11 2010 the number of cases increased at a much lower rate (~1.0839 per week). While that sounds innocuous it did much more damage since it was maintained for 37 weeks. Over this period there were an additional 57,784,980 cases, bringing the total to 61 million as stated by Steve Case.

        Mercifully, the apparent death rate was only 0.2% while the real death rate was much lower since most people who got H1N1 (including me) self medicated at home without contacting a medical professional.

        Steve Case also got the hospitalization and death stats right.

  22. Adelaida says:

    Is there a filter that does not allow comments on New York?

  23. Adelaida says:

    I see that no….

    I just couldn’t upload a comment all day and I don’t know why …

  24. Adelaida says:

    My last link is very interesting:

    About how in Italy, Veneto managed to control the epidemic extraordinarily unlike Lombardia and Madrid…

    • ren says:

      The UK Prime Minister is an example that shows that if the fever lasts up to the sixth day of illness, corticosteroids must be given.

  25. c1ue says:

    Dr. Spencer,
    Good points and thank you for your ongoing efforts.
    It is interesting though – your previous notes about the lockdowns reducing normal flu season deaths would make it appear that nCOV is indeed a very serious disease, given that confirmed cases are a tiny percentage of population and even extrapolation based on the epidemiological descriptions shows infection rates at 3.5% at most.
    My own data is showing New York exceeding Italy today in nCOV mortality per 10M population; it will pass Spain tomorrow or maybe Thursday at the latest. The rest of the US – excluding New York state – is still on par with Germany, although of course it is impossible to say what stage nCOV is in these various states.
    But New York State’s performance thus far gives the lie to any notion that health care capacity and/or expertise in Spain and Italy are sub-par.

    • ren says:

      Brooklyn, New York (CNN)One emergency room. Forty minutes. Six patients go into cardiac arrest. Four die before they make it out of the ER.

      The blare of the critical “CODE 99” from the hospital alert system rings out five other times in less than an hour, calling medics to scramble to a patient needing resuscitation.
      It’s not chaos to them, but to an onlooker, it seems like hell.
      “They’re so sick you lose them in a heartbeat, they’re that sick,” respiratory therapist Julie Eason told CNN. “They’re talking to you and then a few minutes later you’re putting a tube down their throat and you’re hoping that you can set the ventilator in such a way that it actually helps them.”
      This is the truth of what coronavirus is doing to thousands of Americans, and likely will to many thousand more. It has been largely unseen because visitors are not allowed to be in hospitals, and everyone else is staying home.
      https://edition.cnn.com/2020/04/05/health/inside-new-york-coronavirus-hospital/index.html

    • Nate says:

      C1ue,

      Agreed.

      Worldometer shows the hotspots of Italy, Spain, and New York, having mortality from COVID of about 30/100,000 people.

      This will likely double by the end to 60/100,000.

      This with the unprecedented social distancing. Imagine if we had 50% infection rate as had been projected with no social distancing.

      Compare to a typical flu season, mortality is 10/100,000 with ~ 10% infection rate.

  26. Adelaida says:

    Yes Ren, that is the discovery of Dr. Calleja, a Spanish internist, specialist in the autoimmune system …
    And it is most likely that neither Italians nor Britons are aware of this form of corticosteroid treatment that is contrary to the OMS guidelines ….
    However, in Spain its application has already been disseminated among hospitals.

  27. Adelaida says:

    I gave all the information about it in the forum of the previous publication of Dr. Spencer

    “COVID-19 Deaths In Europe: Excess Mortality Is – DOWN?”

    In case you want to know more about it …

    And it is easier to search for it from the end of the comments ..

  28. Adelaida says:

    Ren, I’m glad it was useful!

    This is a new virus (and thank you !! Because you have previous knowledge of the other SARS) about what is being learned on the go:
    how to treat those affected, how it behaves on different surfaces and how it is transmitted! …

    Until now, OMS is
    -considering-
    the benefit of masks! ….

    Of course, the reference we have for highly infectious viruses is the flu!

    And this covid is being seen to be spread in a simple exchange of words with an infected person, who may be completely asymptomatic !!

    …. It runs like wildfire …..

    And those differences cannot be seen in the graphs of today’s publication by Dr. Spencer.

  29. Adelaida says:

    Sorry I wanted to say that the covid spreads like powder! not like a forest fire

  30. Adelaida says:

    gunpowder

  31. ren says:

    “All of our thoughts and prayers are with the prime minister at this time, with Carrie, and with his whole family.

    “And I’m confident he’ll pull through because if there’s one thing I know about this prime minister, he’s a fighter. And he’ll be back at the helm, leading us through this crisis in short order.”

    It comes as the number of coronavirus hospital deaths in the UK rose to 6,159 – a record increase of 786 in a day, the Department of Health and Social Care said, compared with 439 on Monday.

    https://www.bbc.com/news/uk-52201048

  32. ren says:

    A general principle of passive antibody therapy is that it is more effective when used for prophylaxis than for treatment of disease. When used for therapy, antibody is most effective when administered shortly after the onset of symptoms. The reason for temporal variation in efficacy is not well understood but could reflect that passive antibody works by neutralizing the initial inoculum, which is likely to be much smaller than that of established disease (5). Another explanation is that antibody works by modifying the inflammatory response, which is also more easily achieved during the initial immune response, a stage that may be asymptomatic (6). As an example, passive antibody therapy for pneumococcal pneumonia was most effective when administered shortly after the onset of symptoms, and there was no benefit if antibody administration was delayed past the third day of disease (7).
    https://www.jci.org/articles/view/138003

  33. ren says:

    April 7
    11059 new cases and 1417 new deaths in France.

  34. ren says:

    Observations may indicate that in countries where there was mandatory vaccination against tuberculosis, the epidemic is not growing rapidly.

  35. Bindidon says:

    US Americans (or better: ConUSians) are strange people.

    They really manage to compare the US H1N1 disease in 2009 with what happens today to them:

    – 2009/10: 12,000 deaths / 60,000,000 cases i.e. 0.02 % mortality
    vs.
    – 2020: 12,000 deaths / 400,000 cases i.e. 3 % mortality

    Maybe you start one day to measure the difference, and maybe that helps you in understanding how terrifying it was for Italian, Spanish and French medical workers in comparison with thislittle yearly flu.

    Did any of you ConUSians ever hear any doctor telling you in earlier years he has to decide who can survive and whom he has to leave alone until death?

    We never heard such things in any year before this Corona period, even not in 2017/18, as the seasonal flu caused over 20,000 deaths in Germany compared with the usual 1,000.

    J.-P. Dehottay

    • Bindidon says:

      Addendum

      Did anybody of you all hear of over 50 medical workers dying in Italy during the seasonal flu?

      I didn’t.

  36. Richard greene says:

    Deaths from ordinary flu or pneumonia could be blamed on covid19. Deaths of people with a serious chronic health problems could be attributed to covid with mild or no symptoms, that would not kill anyone.

  37. Bindidon says:

    ” Deaths from ordinary flu or pneumonia could be blamed on covid19. ”

    Typical reaction from people who doubt everything that doesn’t fit their narrative.

    Why do people like “Richard greene” not think the inverse?

    Simply because they permanently look at people like Trump, who has been talking small about the problem of the corona pandemic since the beginning.

    Then it was the Democrats’ fault.

    Then the US states were to blame.

    And now the WHO is suddenly to blame.

    Trump behaves like a little child who always blames others for what he caused.

    And so do worldwide his glowing followers think and act.

    • gallopingcamel says:

      @Bindidon,
      Using a global pandemic to play politics is disgusting. Please stop. If you have any ideas for improving the situation please tell us.

    • Nate says:

      Please stpp enabling Trump to play dictator and try to subvert the constitution during the crisis.

      ‘During the Monday afternoon press conference, reporters asked Trump how he would force governors to act if they didn’t want to reopen their states.

      “When somebody is the president of the United States, the authority is total”, Trump answered.

      The one problem with that, Liz Cheney pointed out in a tweet shortly after the press conference ended, was that the president doesn’t have ultimate authority

      “The federal government does not have absolute power,” Cheney wrote.

      She then cited the 10th Amendment of the U.S. Constitution, which says the powers not specifically delegated to the federal government or prohibited from state control are reserved for the states.’

  38. Adelaida says:

    “If we use the difference between the reports from the two successive weeks as an estimate of how many new reports will come each week as a percentage of the average seasonal cycle, and add them up over 52 weeks, we can get a rough estimate of what the totals will look like a year from now “

  39. Adelaida says:

    Did the 60,000 deaths in week 10 of 2018 occur that week?
    ????
    They represent accumulated deaths, in that week 10 in 2018 there would be more deaths but all the deaths of the year from all causes have been added, and as you say, most correspond to the flu ….. and the flu campaign It is 7 MONTHS.

  40. Adelaida says:

    In a few months, when this has happened (hopefully totally … but it will be seen!), When the corresponding reports for each week have already arrived, which Roy Spencer talks about, The data from this crisis can be widely analyzed and compared with the flu …
    But right now, what good is it?

  41. Adelaida says:

    That seeing these macro data makes us less scared of the figures? …
    … But they collide with the reality we are seeing !!!
    … Unless we are blind !!!

  42. Adelaida says:

    I wonder and just wonder:

    And is there not something that everyone can really do from their own experience of data management, modeling … or whatever their usual area of ​​work or interest,
    to help (in the health or economic aspect) of our own country or the world ?

  43. Adelaida says:

    And if the answer is no …

    Well, we will have to accept it with humility, dedicating ourselves to what is ours, observing what is happening around us and around the world, and pray, as it comes from our hearts, so that this crisis will take the least number of lives and that the inhabitants and leaders of our countries come to mind, how to get out of the economic depression parallel to and after this expansion of the coronavirus, with the least possible suffering of the entire world population.

  44. Adelaida says:

    I had written more about the paragraph that I have copied and pasted from this publication by Dr. Spencer, relating it to New York, but for whatever reason, I cannot publish it, so it is a bit disjointed …

  45. Adelaida says:

    Portugal, an example of magnificent coronavirus management:
    Approximately 10 million inhabitants 13,141 confirmed cases 380 dead 12,300 tests per million inhabitants.

    You can see It on worldometters.

    • Bindidon says:

      ” Portugal, an example of magnificent coronavirus management… ”

      That’s a bit too simple, Adelaida.

      Portugal did no magnificent job; it had a magnificent luck in getting less infected by people who were in the wrong place at the wrong moment.

      Rgds
      J.-P. D.

  46. Adelaida says:

    Reflections on the current crisis of the coronavirus, from the head of a Christian church:

    “Citing Virgil, Dostoevsky and Manzoni, the Pope reflects deeply on the conversion process he sees as an opportunity in the midst of the coronavirus crisis. He is very concerned about the aftermath, and sore from so much suffering and sacrifice. But he trusts the possibility of transformation it offers us .”

    https://www-abc-es.cdn.ampproject.org/v/s/www.abc.es/sociedad/abci-entrevista-sobre-pandemia-coronavirus-papa-abc-reservense-para-mejores-tiempos-porque-entonces-recordar-esta-crisis-ayudara-202004072141_noticia_amp.html?amp_js_v=a3&amp_gsa=1&usqp=mq331AQFKAGwASA%3D#aoh=15863827087372&amp_ct=1586382739350&referrer=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.google.com&amp_tf=De%20%251%24s&ampshare=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.abc.es%2Fsociedad%2Fabci-entrevista-sobre-pandemia-coronavirus-papa-abc-reservense-para-mejores-tiempos-porque-entonces-recordar-esta-crisis-ayudara-202004072141_noticia.html

  47. Adelaida says:

    “The Government of the country, alerted by the situation in Spain and in Europe, was aware of the seriousness of the situation and the dramatic measures from the outset. On March 13, with 112 infections and no deaths, Antnio Costa had the status alert and closed schools, universities, schools, bars and nightclubs.The shopping malls and restaurants limit their capacity and take very little time to be closed.

    Three days later, border traffic with Spain was limited, but the contagions rose exponentially and Costa decreed a state of emergency on March 18. All specifically non-essential stores were closed permanently and the entire country was confined. Displacement is specifically allowed for “reasons of force majeure”, that is, to buy basic necessities, to go to work, to the bank or to walk pets. On March 28, those measures went further and immigrants were protected, legalizing all those who had applied for a residence permit. ”

    “Antnio Sales, Secretary of State for Health, confirmed that 110,000 rapid tests have been carried out since March 1 and the country intends to double the number of ventilators in the ICU.”

    “The Portuguese health authorities continue to bet on isolation and massive tests to stop the spread and, according to several experts, the curve of infections that suffer a slowdown.”
    diarioas / 2020/04/07

    • Bindidon says:

      Translated using Google Trans from the linked text:

      Late virus outbreak

      The first big difference between Portugal and the rest of European countries was the arrival of the coronavirus. It was the last country in Western Europe to detect its first case, which occurred on March 2. A Porto citizen tested positive after a trip in northern Italy. A few hours later, the second case came, that of a patient returning from Valencia. In other words, the virus arrived a month later in Portugal than in Spain.

      *
      That explains a lot already, but not everything.

      Though Portugal has 1,200 km border with Spain, the two countries have far less human contacts than have e.g. Italy and Spain, though having no common border at all.

      Portugal is very isolated: that is the major factor.

  48. Adelaida says:

    It is a set of all Bindidon ….. and obviously, the management of the problem has not been bad at all

  49. Adelaida says:

    “Aunque Portugal tiene 1.200 km de frontera con Espaa, los dos pases tienen mucho menos contactos humanos que, por ejemplo, Italia y Espaa, aunque no tienen ninguna frontera comn.

    Portugal est muy aislado: ese es el factor principal.”

    Test ?

  50. Adelaida says:

    Sorry!

    “Though Portugal has 1,200 km border with Spain, the two countries have far less human contacts than have e.g. Italy and Spain, though having no common border at all.

    Portugal is very isolated: that is the major factor.”

    Test?

    • Bindidon says:

      Adelaida

      This intensity of Italian-Spanish contacts has been mentioned many times at the beginning of the epidemic in Spain.

      Sorry: I can’t find the links anymore.

      J.-P. D.

      P.S. I have been in many places at the border between PT and ES… from Alcoutim till Monção.

      I can’t recall having experienced such mental distance between two in fact so near nations.

  51. Adelaida says:

    Thanks Bindidon.
    I personally love Portugal ! and of course Italy ! and of the two countries and in both countries we Spaniards feel like brothers.
    But it is true that it has been difficult for me to find information in the important Spanish newspapers … and that has surprised me! … In fact, the link I have sent is from a sports newspaper that is covering the international coronavirus situation very well.

  52. Nate says:

    During the last 3 weeks, New York state with 20 million people, has had about 6500 documented deaths from COVID19, with 0.8% testing positive.

    If we extrapolate NY mortality to the whole country that would be an extra 107,000 deaths.

    If we take the worst 3 weeks of the 2017 Flu from your graph, we had about 22,000 extra deaths.

  53. Adelaida says:

    “18.26
    The death rate of Covid-19 is “10 times higher” than that of influenza, as announced by the Director-General of the World Health Organization (WHO), Tedros Adhanom Ghebreyesus, who has ensured that the death rate of the new Coronavirus, whose disease is known as Covid-19, is “10 times higher” than influenza. In addition, he said the following: “The global spread of the virus has saturated health systems, altered the world economy and caused widespread social paralysis.”

    https://www-abc-es.cdn.ampproject.org/v/s/www.abc.es/sociedad/abci-coronavirus-espana-directo-muertes-mundiales-covid-19-aumentan-70-por-ciento-semana-202004090632_directo_amp.html?amp_js_v=a3&amp_gsa=1&usqp=mq331AQFKAGwASA%3D#aoh=15864597047161&referrer=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.google.com&amp_tf=De%20%251%24s&ampshare=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.abc.es%2Fsociedad%2Fabci-coronavirus-espana-directo-muertes-mundiales-covid-19-aumentan-70-por-ciento-semana-202004090632_directo.html

  54. Snape says:

    What happens if after our social distancing efforts there is still not a vaccine or effective treatment? The virus could start to spread all over again.

    At which point there will need to be a serious cost/benefit discussion – lives, versus social and economic disruption.

  55. Bindidon says:

    For interested persons:

    Average detection rate of SARS-CoV-2 infections is estimated around six percent

    Christian Bommer & Sebastian Vollmer, University of Goettingen, 2020

    http://www.uni-goettingen.de/de/document/download/ff656163edb6e674fdbf1642416a3fa1.pdf/Bommer%20&%20Vollmer%20(2020)%20COVID-19%20detection%20April%202nd.pdf

    • Bindidon says:

      Oh Noes you d….d scanner!

      https://tinyurl.com/w4my9z8

    • Gordon Robertson says:

      binny…”Average detection rate of SARS-CoV-2 infections is estimated around six percent…”

      Neat trick. How do you detect a virus that has never been isolated, purified, or seen with an electron microscope? The medical community is getting away with serious scientific misconduct.

      Plenty of viruses have been detected legitimately, what is so difficult about properly detecting these viruses? Can they camouflage themselves, do they hide covertly behind enzymes and proteins?

  56. Bindidon says:

    Where is this strange galloping camel named Peter Morcombe, who attacked me some days ago ?

    From the serious French newspaper “Le Monde” :

    Coronavirus: Serious side effects accumulate on hydroxychloroquine

    Since March 27, fifty-four cases of heart disease, including four fatal, have been identified in France in Covid-19 patients taking hydroxychloroquine, in some cases associated with azithromycin.

    https://www.lemonde.fr/planete/article/2020/04/09/covid-19-les-effets-indesirables-graves-s-accumulent-sur-l-hydroxychloroquine_6036139_3244.html

    Some comment, Sir?
    100 % welcome…

    • Chic Bowdrie says:

      Hydroxychloroquine sulphate (Plaquenil) was approved by the US FDA in 1955. It is an anti-malarial and used to treat lupus and rhumatoid arthritis for many years.

      The cardiac effects are well documented in the labeling…

      https://www.accessdata.fda.gov/drugsatfda_docs/label/2019/009768Orig1s051lbl.pdf

      “Cardiac Effects, including Cardiomyopathy and QT prolongation: Postmarketing cases of life-threatening and fatal cardiomyopathy have been reported with use of PLAQUENIL as well as with use of chloroquine. Patients may present with atrioventricular block, pulmonary hypertension, sick sinus syndrome or with cardiac complications. ECG findings may include atrioventricular, right or left bundle branch block. Signs or symptoms of cardiac compromise have appeared during acute and chronic treatment. Clinical monitoring for signs and symptoms of cardiomyopathy is advised, including use of appropriate diagnostic tools such as ECG to monitor patients for cardiomyopathy during PLAQUENIL therapy. Chronic toxicity should be considered when conduction disorders (bundle branch block/atrio-ventricular heart block) or biventricular hypertrophy are diagnosed. If cardiotoxicity is suspected, prompt discontinuation of PLAQUENIL may prevent life-threatening complications.”

      …and in the literature: https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/29858838

      Your concern for people receiving adverse effects from hydroxycholoroquine is honorable, but your condemnation of gallopingcamel and doctors willing to help patients wanting an alternative to dying from Covid-19 is dishonorable.

      • Gordon Robertson says:

        Chic…”The cardiac effects are well documented in the labeling”

        That’s the problem with many drugs, the proposed cure is far worse than the disease. I fear the wide spread use of antiviral drugs which have seriously toxic side-effects. The antivirals used on HIV came from the manufacturer with a data sheet that offered the disclaimer that the drugs will not cure HIV. They also advise the drugs can cause blood disorders, kidney and liver problems, and even death.

        The ultimate irony, however, was the warning of IRS, the production of AIDS opportunistic infections. Peter Dueberg labelled that as ‘death by prescription’.

        • Chic Bowdrie says:

          Maybe you didn’t get my point that hydroxychloroquine is generally safe considering the conditions it is use for. It’s not a pain killer or a decongestant. Adverse anecdotal conditions were documented in 87 reports on 127 patients on the drug for an average 7 years. People are being cured of Covid-19 by it in less than 7 days (hours?).

          “That’s the problem with many drugs, the proposed cure is far worse than the disease.”

          Name two.

        • theRealPlastic says:

          Gordon,

          Would you ever consider vamping up your reading list, rather than always quoting the same two or three dinosaur outliers as if they are Gospel? You seem compelled to repeat yourself over and over about this topic. Maybe you are vested in feeling like a wounded Cassandra, whose “truth” is ignored by everybody. It’s a more comfortable stance to be a Cassandra than realizing conviction doesn’t make something true.

          Do you lack the sense of intellectual inquiry necessary to evaluate long-held opinions for validity? These repeated opinions about HIV/AIDS are outdated and misinformed. You reference information that is 1990s, before multiple drug classes and combination antiretroviral therapies became available.

          “The antivirals used on HIV came from the manufacturer with a data sheet that offered the disclaimer that the drugs will not cure HIV.” Um…so? No one is saying ARV therapy is a cure. ARV therapy is intended to achieve sufficient viral suppression that the disease is manageable and good quality of life can be maintained.

          “I fear the wide spread use of antiviral drugs which have seriously toxic side-effects.”

          Do you count “a regular life span” as a toxic side-effect? Do you count “radically improved immunocompetence” as a toxic side-effect? Antiretroviral therapy to manage HIV/AIDS has been in use for over 30 years. And when you are using these drugs, you are monitored closely to minimize impact of any adverse effects. Anemia is treatable, Gordon. Osteoporosis is treatable. Nephrologists, endocrinologists, and other specialists are part of the clinical team overseeing ART administration. Yet you say a quick nasty death from unchecked infection is preferable to potential, largely treatable/manageable adverse effects? I can only shake my head at this.

          To reiterate, your knowledge here is incredibly narrow and dated. There are numerous different ARV regimens, and around six different medication classes for drug options. This area of medicine is continuously researched, improved, and expanded upon. ART has advanced miles since the late 80s, early 90s that you fixate on. Please get a grip.

          I can predict what you might itch to say next:

          homophobic stuff about “the wild gays and their poppers!”
          racist stuff about Africa
          More quotes from the ilk of dinosaur Duesberg and straight-up psycho Rasnick
          “BuT thEy HAveN’t ISoLAtEd thE viRuS!!!!!”

          I beg you to save it, and use that energy to educate yourself instead. Reading almost ANYTHING on the subject of current antiretroviral therapy will help, even starting with Wikipedia.

  57. nayyer ali says:

    As a critical care doctor in southern California, I totally recognize those numbers from 2017-18. That was the worst flu year in a decade, and we were getting hammered all winter with pneumonias and other flu related complications. I’ve seen three really bad flu years going back to the 1990’s, but I have never encountered anything remotely like what NYC is currently experiencing. COVID is a totally different beast. Even though CA has been bypassed the worst of things, we have seven patients as young as 30 on ventilator in our ICU. That would be extraordinary at any one time from the flu.

    • Bindidon says:

      nayyer ali

      Thanks for informing us.

      What you write matches exactly what your colleagues wrote in Italy, Spain, France and Germany.

      Rgds
      J.-P. D.

    • Gordon Robertson says:

      nayyer…”COVID is a totally different beast”.

      It may be even more different than you think. Covid has never been isolated, purified, and photographed with an electron microscope as required by the protocol laid down by the Louis Pasteur Institute. Covid is an inferred virus based on RNA found in an infected person and the RNA is ‘thought’ to come from a virus.

      The same mistake was made with HIV and it took nearly 40 years for the scientist who discovered it, Luc Montagnier, to confirm that HIV will not harm anyone with a healthy immune system. The data backs him since the vast majority of people in North America or Europe were not affected by HIV, even though the WHO predicted a global pandemic.

      I don’t think the current contagion is harmless, it is very serious for some, but it is remarkable that certain people testing positive show no signs whatsoever of an infection while others become seriously ill and die. That’s why I question the tests being used, the criterion for positive is questionable, and if the tests are inaccurate, the effect will be an inaccurate surge in covid related deaths.

      Anthony Fauci, the head of NIAID has admitted very recently that certain races are more prone to certain infectious agents than others. He was talking in the context of covid19. We will likely never get a breakdown of which races were most affected or whether infections affected every race equally. It could be a DNA/cell issue.

      Sickle cell anemia is one such disease that singles out certain races. I am not in any way claiming anything about this affliction and covid19, I am merely pointing out that breathing issues such as claimed with covid19 are also an issue with this type of anemia. It just so happens that risk groups for this affliction are Caucasians from southern Europe.

      Italy and Spain are in southern Europe, for those without a map. Is it possible that people predisposed to issues with their red blood cells, that can affect breathing, have been affected by an unknown contagion?

      https://www.hematology.org/education/patients/anemia/sickle-cell-trait

  58. Snape says:

    @Bindidon

    To me, the numbers from the Kirkland nursing home are fairly encouraging. All of the 129 infected were either very old, very ill or both, yet roughly 70% survived. Similar numbers from a nursing home in Oregon, which included a 104 year old survivor.

    As I mentioned earlier, at some point we may need to let people go back to work/school, even if the virus has not been contained. The current level of economic disruption is not sustainable.

    • Gordon Robertson says:

      snape…” at some point we may need to let people go back to work/school, even if the virus has not been contained”.

      Snape, old boy…for once I agree with you wholeheartedly. We are a tougher species than our wimpy politicians think.

    • Bindidon says:

      Snape

      If you would, like I do, read 4 newspapers online per day (2 French, 2 German), THEN you would manage to think quite different.

      Because what all involved doctors currently report from Italy, Spain, France and even Germany is exactlyx the contrary of what you wrote above.

      They namely all report that the age of their ICU patients needing intubation becomes lower and lower.

      Who writes like you “… even if the virus has not been contained” certainly is not at all concerned by this virus.

      Rgds
      J.-P. D.

  59. Gordon Robertson says:

    Roy…”…modelers will be able to prove anything they want given a variety of assumptions”.

    There is some hope in that Anthony Fauci, head of the infectious disease centre in the US has claimed models are unreliable. At the same time he stands by dubious death stats attributed to covid19.

    Also this doctor in Minnesota who has the old-fashioned, non-politically correct attitude. Good for him. One in a million.

    ***holding spot for URL test***

  60. Gordon Robertson says:

    url for post above has a fault….testing for fault.

    Remove asterisk in cd*c, copy and paste.

    https://www.foxnews.com/media/physician-blasts-cd*c-coronavirus-death-count-guidelines

  61. Gordon Robertson says:

    adelaida…”The death rate of Covid-19 is 10 times higher than that of influenza, as announced by the Director-General of the World Health Organization (WHO)…”

    Is this the same WHO who predicted a global pandemic with the HIV virus? The same WHO who predicted a global pandemic with SARS? We had 44 SARS related deaths in Canada, 43 of them in one locale. HIV has long since been forgotten.

    The WHO are a load of duffers like the UN. They fabricate statistics using models then they exaggerate deaths stats in a feeble attempt to meet their model ‘projections’.

    This doctor explains the game.

    ***remove the asterisk, *, from cd*c, copy and paste****.

    https://www.foxnews.com/media/physician-blasts-cd*c-coronavirus-death-count-guidelines

  62. studentb says:

    Will coronavirus be America’s domestic wake-up call?
    In a matter of weeks, the pandemic has relentlessly exploited America’s weak spots.
    Inadequate health care, rampant inequality, cumbersome bureaucracy, all-pervasive politics and millions of people who trust shock jocks and preachers more than scientists.

    Sad but true.

  63. Adelaida says:

    Gordon Robertson:

    “Italy and Spain are in southern Europe, for those without a map. Is it possible that people predisposed to issues with their red blood cells, that can affect breathing, have been affected by an unknown contagion?”

    No.

    “Summary.
    Introduction.
    Sickle cell disease (or sickle cell disease) It is a systemic pathology produced by a genetic alteration of the hemoglobin that is transmitted by autosomal recessive inheritance. Presents itself more frequently in geographic areas where malaria is endemic, although this geographic pattern has varied with recent migratory flows. In Spain the estimated incidence of sickle cell disease it is low. The clinical manifestations depend on the genotype and age. In the most severe forms, the clinical picture may begin in the first months of life and produce high mortality, mainly due to encapsulated germ infections”

    https://drive.google.com/file/d/1WbQyNm2OqAH8i_2PU-oIOo4M2aTwgGOy/view?usp=drivesdk

  64. Adelaida says:

    For information:

    “The Caucasian adjective
    It refers to who is a native of the Caucasus or who or what is linked to this region that develops between Asia and Europe.
    In this way it is possible to speak of Caucasian race, Caucasian people, Caucasian language, etc. ”
    “The Caucasian peoples, on the other hand, are the ethnic groups residing in the Caucasus region.
    It may be communities that live in areas of Russia,
    Georgia, Azerbaijan,
    Armenia, Turkey or Iran. ”

    https://definicion.de/caucasico/

    • Gordon Robertson says:

      adelaida…”Sickle cell disease (or sickle cell disease) It is a systemic pathology produced by a genetic alteration of the hemoglobin that is transmitted by autosomal recessive inheritance”.

      Hemoglobin carries oxygen, if it is low, people have trouble breathing. It is being reported in many covid cases that people are having trouble breathing. They also have fever and fluid in lungs, indicating pneumonia. That would explain the breathing issues.

      I get all that, I am trying to point out that those people susceptible to sickle cell anemia also significantly populate the areas where covid is rampant. I am asking if there could be a connection.

      Anthony Fauci, head of the US NIAID, has admitted certain races are predisposed to certain illnesses. Could this contagion be a genetic issue and have little to do with a virus? After all, no virus has been identified using the scientific protocol in place for identifying a virus. Covid is being inferred.

      I am asking why it cannot be identified by normal means and is it possible this affliction is not about a virus at all? Is there an unidentified contagion that is affecting people mainly in certain parts of certain countries far more than in other countries?

      Why has this contagion hit places like Northern Italy, Spain and New York city far harder than other places?

    • Gordon Robertson says:

      adelaida…re Caucasians….although the derivation of the word is as you say, the Caucasus region, it is used today with reference to the white people, whatever that means. How do you define white?

      The person who coined the term Caucasian was a racist. He was looking for a part of the world where people were allegedly white and he thought the Caucuses represented that area. Therefore southern European Caucasians would refer to Italians, Greeks, Spaniards, etc.

      • Nate says:

        “Could this contagion be a genetic issue and have little to do with a virus?”

        Gordon’s brain has laid off the entire quality-control department.

  65. Adelaida says:

    Read Gordon ….
    But the fact is that given the contagiousness of covid, it is very feasible that in many cases the new virus joins the flu and therefore increases mortality even more …..

    Of course the WHO, right now is screwing up to the bottom, discouraging the masks at a general level … But its declaration of the mortality rate by covid 10 times higher than the
    the flu is credible, it reflects the health and mortality situation … although it is not a clean figure and other causes are added …

    On the other hand Snape and Gordon:
    There are still so many questions about this new virus … that opening the economy, sending people to work in a short time is suicidal … I think that doing this can be a serious violation of human rights by governments. :

    “Everyone has the right to an adequate standard of living that ensures him, as well as his family, health, well-being, and especially food, clothing, housing, medical care […]”

    Article 25 of the Universal Declaration of Human Rights

    And I agree that this endangers the sustainability of the current economic system, ….. hopefully it happens as on the individual human level, where a well-understood crisis brings out the best in us …

    • Gordon Robertson says:

      adelaida…”There are still so many questions about this new virus that opening the economy, sending people to work in a short time is suicidal…”

      You have to understand that medical science is heavily paradigm driven. There are paradigms still used in medical science that were proved wrong a long time ago.

      The covid virus uses pseudo-science invented for the HIV virus. Luc Montganier, who discovered HIV, and Robert Gallo co-credited with finding it, both used the standard protocol for identifying a virus to a point. They got to the purification stage where the suspected virus was put in a sugar solution with a density gradient then centrifuged.

      Normally, the centrifuge would cause the virus to form into a specific density gradient band typical of a virus, but not always. Sometimes, non-viral particles occupy that density gradient. With both Montagnier and Gallo, they did not get past that stage. It is presumed they viewed the separated cell mass with an electron microscope and found no virus particles.

      Then the fun began. Can’t find a virus, infer one. They found RNA in specimens taken from people with AIDS and presumed the RNA came from a virus since a virus is coiled up RNA within a protein coating. Other scientists have claimed that RNA is predominant in the body, involved in the creation of proteins, therefore the RNA could have come from other processes.

      DNA and RNA are the basis of life. They are involved in every cell throughout the human body. During an infection, cells can die and fragments of RNA as debris are left around. There was no good scientific reason to presume the RNA in question came from HIV or covid.

      The question I keep asking, and I cannot find an answer for it, is why HIV and covid cannot be found using the standard method for identifying a virus. Why must they be inferred. Using engineering logic I would claim there is no virus to be found and if no biologist is going to step forward and explain why it cannot be found, I’ll stick to that opinion.

      I am not adamant in my claim that neither HIV or covid exist I am asking the question as to why they cannot be found by a very good method that can identify most viruses.

      What interests me more is that the claims made based on the HIV/AIDS viral hypothesis all turned out to be wrong. It took nearly 40 years to find it was wrong but a few years ago Montagnier admitted that HIV cannot harm a healthy immune system. I am willing to bet the same is true for covid19 and that some other contagion is at work.

      I just hope it’s not some kind of biological warfare.

      The irony is that we’ll never find out till researcher get off this blind faith that a virus is at work. What other known virus has caused the devastation of this so-called virus? A virus is a simple mechanism that infects a cell causing cell death. Most humans have the capacity to survive the destruction so why is this one so different?

      No one has an answer but they sure don’t hesitate to spread propaganda as if they have the answers.

  66. Adelaida says:

    Sorry, I wanted to say a soft Spanish expression that means “to spoil” and when translated, Google has transformed it into:
    “is screwing” … And it was not my intention!
    It is not in my character to use profane words and expressions …

    Sorry Sorry Sorry !!!

    • Bindidon says:

      Adelaida

      A good way to avoid such blind-alleys is, once you think the translation might be OK, to let the translator switch the two languages, by clicking on the double arrow.

      Then you see how the backtranslation differs from your original text.

      J.-P. D.

    • Gordon Robertson says:

      adelaida…”Google has transformed it into:
      is screwing ”

      I don’t think Google would use the profane version. Screwing has various meanings is English. If a man is using a screwdriver to screw a screw into a piece of wood, he is screwing.

      Screwing can mean ‘to twist’. If someone is twisting the truth to deceive you, in English we say he is screwing you around, or in short, screwing you.

      In neither case is screwing used profanely.

  67. Adelaida says:

    And WHO is = OMS

    Sorry again!

  68. Snape says:

    @Bindidon

    [Who writes like you even if the virus has not been contained certainly is not at all concerned by this virus.]

    From Worldometer:
    An estimated 371,134 traffic accident fatalities so far this year, and its only April.

    These deaths could have been prevented had we closed the worlds roads and freeways.
    Good idea?

    • Bindidon says:

      Snape

      Again: you don’t feel to be concerned at all by this virus.

      The point is NOT to compare its death toll with e.g. traffic or cancer deaths.

      The point is that though not killing verry fast, it pushes hospitals faster down to incapacity than was experienced during the last decades.

      Even its predecessor SARS was less dangerous because it killed infected persons faster than they were able to spread it out.

      An idea to look at how it works is a graph showing its death toll per cases ratio (the mortality rate), e.g. for the US:

      https://drive.google.com/file/d/13EBvk7CvkgY65on7jYAvk3jYn7tAXj-0/view

      Here you see not only that the ratio shows a quadratic increase; you see also that the quadratic prediction using the polynomial fit’s equation on March 31 for April 9 (18 days starting with March 23) was, with 3.6 %, nearly perfect.

      In a week, on Friday April 17, we will see if the prediction based on today’s fit will be correct.

      This would mean that next week, the mortality rate will have reached 5 % (compared with 0.1 % for the seasonal flu in the US, and 10 % for SARS). And that within about 3 months.

      Wait and see…

  69. Snape says:

    Bin

    [Again: you dont feel to be concerned at all by this virus.
    The point is NOT to compare its death toll with e.g. traffic or cancer deaths.]

    ******

    Governments are not able to issue an order that would eliminate cancer deaths. They could, however, issue an order to close roads and freeways – effectively preventing more than a million lives lost annually to auto accidents.

    And yet I have never heard of anyone supporting such a measure. How come?

  70. Bindidon says:

    An interesting analysis made by Grant Foster:

    https://tamino.wordpress.com/2020/04/09/coronavirus-update-usa/#more-11250

    A flattening of new cases AND new deaths sounds good, even if it doesn’t help medical personnel that much for the moment.

  71. Bindidon says:

    Adelaida

    One more time we see on this thread Robertson’s ignorance and psychotic urge to lie:

    ” Covid has never been isolated, purified, and photographed with an electron microscope as required by the protocol laid down by the Louis Pasteur Institute. Covid is an inferred virus based on RNA found in an infected person and the RNA is thought to come from a virus. ”

    Weeks ago he wrote such nonsense, and will repeat it ad nauseam, despite having been contradicted with the two articles below.

    *
    1. Identification of Coronavirus Isolated from a Patient in Korea with COVID-19 (2020)

    https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC7045880/

    Methods

    Upper and lower respiratory tract secretion samples from putative patients with COVID-19 were inoculated onto cells to isolate the virus. Full genome sequencing and electron microscopy were used to identify the virus.

    *
    2. Probing the structure of the SARS coronavirus using scanning electron microscopy

    https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/15134191

    A novel coronavirus, SARS-CoV, has been confirmed to be the aetiological agent of SARS. Transmission electron microscope (TEM) images played an important role in initial identification of the pathogen. In order to obtain greater morphological detail of SARS-CoV than could be obtained by TEM, we used ultra-high resolution scanning electron microscopy (SEM) to image the virus particles.

    *
    The more ignorant the man, the more he lies.

    J.-P. D.

    • Gordon Robertson says:

      binny…”Upper and lower respiratory tract secretion samples from putative patients with COVID-19 were inoculated onto cells to isolate the virus. Full genome sequencing and electron microscopy were used to identify the virus”.

      One question… since the virus has never been isolated but inferred due to RNA fragments, where did they get the genome of the virus? A genome is the entire information source for an entire organism. Therefore, they claim to have the genome which would require finding the virus in the first place.

      Sorry…what they have is the genome of the RNA they found. What I want to know is why they cannot find the virus using the standard method.

      From your second link…”We show here the three-dimensional appearance of SARS-CoV. Enhanced detail of the ultrastructure reveals the trimeric structure of the 10-20 nm spikes on the virion surface”.

      They don’t show the EM photograph here but it is inferred at NIAID (link below). Look for the photo with yellow coloured bodies and blue coloured stems.

      Note the triad at the top and a triad below it to the left. One of the particles in that triad is at least twice the size of the others and many have different shapes.

      Those particles were supposedly extracted from a density gradient, meaning the mass/volume of each particle must be the same. The particle that is twice the size of the others cannot possible be from the same density gradient since it would have to be twice the mass of the others, meaning it’s density would be twice the others.

      When viruses are viewed with an EM, they should be the same size and same shape. Most of the particles in the micrograph are not. This microsgraph was allegedly taken on a TEM, which shoots electrons right through the specimen. Therefore the specimen must be specially prepared as a thin slice of no more than 100 nanometers. A virus is at least 100 nanometers in diameter therefore it could not appear as it is depicted on this obviously faked micrograph.

      There are arrows on each micrograph so you can page through different views of the same virus. Why are they all so vastly different? I get it that some use a SEM, which scans the surface to no more than a few nanometers, but why are the shapes so vastly different? A virus is supposed to be like a tiny golf ball with spikes sticking from it.

      https://www.niaid.nih.gov/diseases-conditions/coronaviruses

      • Bindidon says:

        Robertson

        ” A virus is at least 100 nanometers in diameter therefore it could not appear as it is depicted on this obviously faked micrograph. ”

        I can’t recall having ever read such brazen, absoulutely dumb stuff.

        I repeat and will continue to repeat: you are the ugliest ignorant and lier I have ever encountered.

        • nurse ratchet says:

          Yes B., I am afraid I must agree with you. His paranoia is getting worse by the day.

        • Gordon Robertson says:

          binny…”I can’t recall having ever read such brazen, absoulutely dumb stuff”.

          Binny…when you’re an idiot like you, you have trouble understanding scientific information. Look at this page under the influenza-A virus and what does it say: diameter = 80 – 120 nm. HIV = 120 – 150 nm. Herpes = 125 nm; Epstein-Barr = 140 nm.

          BTW…the polio virus is listed at 30 nm but Stefan Lanka, a German microbiologist, claims he was unable to find an actual photo of the polio virus. Lanka discovered the first virus in the ocean, so I’d say he knows a thing or two about viruses.

          In my comment I was referring specifically to the virus in question, the covid19 virus, so I ball-parked it in the range expected for such a virus. After all, it is nothing more than a glorified flu virus. They called it’s predecessors names like bird flue, swine flu, etc.

          The micrograph at the link I posted can only have a specimen slide limited to 100 nm due to the fact a TEM fires electrons right through the specimen. Any thicker and they’d have trouble getting through.

          http://book.bionumbers.org/how-big-are-viruses/

          • Nate says:

            “the polio virus is listed at 30 nm but Stefan Lanka, a German microbiologist, claims he was unable to find an actual photo of the polio virus.”

            And another nonexistent killer virus that used to afflict millions, and now has been eradicated.

            Thanks modern medicine!

      • Norman says:

        Gordon Robertson

        YOU: “Therefore the specimen must be specially prepared as a thin slice of no more than 100 nanometers. A virus is at least 100 nanometers in diameter therefore it could not appear as it is depicted on this obviously faked micrograph.”

        Wrong that viruses have to be thin-sliced. No they do not. Read actual material instead of making things up.

        And this: “The micrograph at the link I posted can only have a specimen slide limited to 100 nm due to the fact a TEM fires electrons right through the specimen. Any thicker and theyd have trouble getting through.”

        Again no.

        Here is the real material from people that actually use this technology. They are much better source of information than your fake made up physics. It seems you won’t research anything at all before you post your made up fake facts. Can you at least attempt to stop this, quit making up false misleading statements.

        The Real Deal:
        https://www.ncbs.res.in/research-facilities/emfacility-faq

        “the usual sample thickness is around 100-200nm”

        “Thickness is not usually a problem for imaging proteins and viruses, which can be placed on the supporting grid whole.”

  72. Bindidon says:

    When I look at Flightradar24, it seems to me that the US still don’t feel any need to shutdown the civil aviation for a while.

    https://www.flightradar24.com/39.96,-101.15/4

    OK…

    J.-P. D.

  73. Snape says:

    This is what has me worried given the social distancing measures we have in place,

    [If we were to stop at the national level by May 1, we are seeing (in models) a return to almost where we are now sometime in July,]

    – director of IHME

    They (the IHME) are saying we need stay at home until June. Yikes!

    • Gordon Robertson says:

      snape…”They (the IHME) are saying we need stay at home until June”.

      Are the IHME an elected body? Have you heard of civil disobedience? As a unionist, we practised it a lot.

      The basis of civil disobedience is as follow. If enough people hit the streets and say screw you. the government either gets the army out and shoots everyone or they get it who is really running the country in a democracy and backs off.

      I’ll be damned if I am going to stay at home because some candy-assed politician tells me I have to.

      As WW I and WW II broke out young Canadians and US citizens signed up to go to Europe. They know they’d be facing bullets and bombs but they went anyway. Democracy was more important to them.

      It’s the same here. No democratic government orders people to stay at home against their wishes. Especially not when the government cannot get a grip on its own hysteria and pseudo-science.

      Canada has about 200 deaths and the US claims 15,000, which I think is grossly inflated. That is not grounds for invoking Draconian measures. Politicians need a reality check.

      Under the conditions, I think Trump is the right man for the job. He wants to get the US back to normal asap while the candy-asses freak out. If Trump is successful with that in the US it will have a big impact on Canadians too, whether our politicians like it or not.

  74. Adelaida says:

    Gordon, Google did the ugly Spanish translation …

    Thanks a lot Bindidon for the advice!

    Especially for Gordon, as it may fit his covid-19 scheme:

    “An exosome, for laymen in cell biology, is a vesicle formed by the cell and expelled outside carrying a molecular charge inside. An anonymous author of the mentioned platform argues that, relying on Rudolf Steiner’s principles of anthroposophic medicine, viruses are not pathogens, but “harmless particles excreted by cells to recover from poisoning, including electromagnetic poisoning.” The author maintains that viruses do not cause disease, but are markers of a pre-existing disease that he calls electromagnetic poisoning. In other words, COVID-19 is not caused by the virus, but by the electromagnetic waves that poison our cells. And they warn us that the situation will worsen given that the new 5G technology is based on 60GHz electromagnetic waves that are, according to the anonymous author, selectively absorbed by oxygen atoms, preventing their binding to other atoms and therefore hindering their binding to hemoglobin, which causes suffocation of living tissues.”

    https://saludsinbulos.com/observatorio/covid19-exosoma-5g/

    Anyway, I have biologist friends dedicated to the investigation of human pathogens and I’ll pass the comment from Gordon, to see what they say …

    It is incredible that compared to the figures that are being handled (although they may be imperfect) …and Bindindon’s proposal for data management and extrapolation in one of his last comments,

    Gordon and Snape are blind or deaf …., in a type of selective deafness or blindness very typical of young children ….

    • Gordon Robertson says:

      adelaida…”relying on Rudolf Steiners principles of anthroposophic medicine, viruses are not pathogens, but harmless particles excreted by cells to recover from poisoning…”

      You accuse me of being blind yet you cannot read your own links. “…relying on Rudolf Steiners principles of anthroposophic medicine, viruses are not pathogens, but harmless particles excreted by cells to recover from poisoning….”

      German microbiologist, Stefan Lanka, who discovered the first virus in the ocean, agrees with Steiner to a degree. He claims there is no such virus as HIV, because it has never been isolated, purified, or photographed with an electron microscope as required. He also thinks H1N1 and H5N1 are phantom viruses.

      Peter Duesberg, a highly qualified microbiologist and an expert in retrovirus like HIV, claimed nearly 40 years ago that HIV is a harmless virus that could not possibly cause AIDS. He was proved right. The scientist who discovered HIV, Luc Montagnier, now claims that HIV cannot harm a healthy immune system. He thinks, like Duesberg, that AIDS is a lifestyle issue.

      Duesberg is no lightweight. He won the California Scientist of the Year award for his work and was the youngest scientist of his time inducted into the US National Academy of Science. You only get invited to join NAS if you have done brilliant work.

      Many people, like Binny, get down on their knees and worship authority. Binny thinks that the majority opinion is always the right opinion. Over here we call someone like him a butt-kisser. He’s not alone, there were a whole lot of butt-kissers spreading propaganda about HIV/AIDS and one scientist proved them all wrong.

      Why would no one listen? And why were they compelled to ruin his career? In the beginning of the AIDS scare, close to 100% of people dying of AIDS were homosexual men and drug abusers, who were nearly all men. Duesberg pointed the obvious by claiming that no known virus could kill only men.

      Is every other researcher that stupid? The completely ignored the facts and went looking for a virus. They never found one so they invented a stupid theory for inferring a virus, exactly like they have done for covid19.

      Guess what? The same stupid researchers and their descendants are the ones now claiming that covid19 is killing people masses of people even though the virus has never been properly isolated, just like HIV.

      Will we dumb ass humans never learn to open our minds and look at the larger picture? Science is about observation and conclusion not consensus and propaganda.

      • Nate says:

        “Why would no one listen?”

        Why, Gordon, don’t you listen when people repeatedly correct your false information?

        “Science is about observation and conclusion not consensus and propaganda.”

        Why then, Gordon, do you refuse to look at the observable facts, the data?

        For one, the fact that the anti-viral HIV treatment works! In the mid 90s people receiving the new treatment stopped dying by the hundreds of thousands of AIDS, as their predecessors had.

  75. Snape says:

    @Adelaida

    I asked a rhetorical question, in good faith, that you and Bindidon have so far ignored.

    • Bindidon says:

      No I didn’t.

      A pandemic just isn’t quite the right moment to discuss about traffic death toll.

    • Bindidon says:

      How many people, do you think, die every day due to permanent war and terrorism, or to lack of clean water we all have in abundance?

      Why didn’t you mention them?

    • Nate says:

      Snape,

      Its an interesting question.

      Terrorism kills very few. The chance of dying from it in US over last few decades is < the chance of dying of a bee sting. Yet we imposed draconian security restrictions in airports and elsewhere.

      Air pollution kills many many more than terrorism, yet we dont worry about it or restrict it nearly as much.

      Speed kills. Yet in Europe the speed limits are much higher than in the US, and more people do die as a result.

      We prefer to kill each other with guns rather than cars in the US.

      Society accepts a small amount of everyday risk to individuals, in differing amounts, to keep functioning and to allow liberties.

      I think the toll of this infection, if left to its own devices, will not be small, millions in the US. And it would wreak havoc on the medical system.

      Societies have almost all judged this to be too large a toll to be acceptable.

  76. Adelaida says:

    “More than 37,000 people died from accidents on the roads of the United States in 2016. This figure represents an increase of 5.6% over the previous year, and is the second year consecutive in which it increases, after seasons of sustained decline ”
    https://www-univision-com.cdn.ampproject.org/v/s/www.univision.com/amp/noticias/citylab-transporte/la-crisis-de-las-autopistas-en-eeuu-alta-mortalidad-y-escasa-seguridad?amp_js_v=a3&amp_gsa=1&usqp=mq331AQFKAGwASA%3D#aoh=15866239710205&referrer=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.google.com&amp_tf=De%20%251%24s&ampshare=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.univision.com%2Fnoticias%2Fcitylab-transporte%2Fla-crisis-de-las-autopistas-en-eeuu-alta-mortalidad-y-escasa-seguridad

    Aircraft deaths in 2019 fell by half The consultancy To70 said that 257 people died in eight fatal accidents in the year that just ended. That compares with the 534 deaths in 13 fatal accidents in 2018.
    https://www-infobae-com.cdn.ampproject.org/v/s/www.infobae.com/america/mundo/2020/01/02/las-muertes-por-accidentes-aereos-en-2019-cayeron-a-la-mitad/?amp_js_v=a3&amp_gsa=1&outputType=amp-type&usqp=mq331AQFKAGwASA%3D#aoh=15866241501694&csi=1&referrer=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.google.com&amp_tf=De%20%251%24s&ampshare=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.infobae.com%2Famerica%2Fmundo%2F2020%2F01%2F02%2Flas-muertes-por-accidentes-aereos-en-2019-cayeron-a-la-mitad%2F

    As of today in a single month …. almost 20,000 people have died in the USA from Covid19 from this virus alone, or from its combination of covid with: high blood pressure, diabetes, lung weakness, cancer, flu, … …. because the final process that led to the death of some or many of those people is compatible with the symptoms or complications of covid-19.

    Compared to 37,000 for road transport in 1YEAR …. (Although they are data from 2016 I do not think there will be so much variation with 2019).

    It is that Snape, if you do not see the gravity, well to tell the truth, I do not understand it.

  77. Snape says:

    @Adelaida

    From your perspective, the social and economic damage of closing our roads and freeways (cost) would be greater than the benefit…. saving 37,000 lives a year.

    OTOH, you believe that slowing the spread of COVID-19 is well worth the damage to the economy.

    So, without realizing it you are doing exactly what I suggested – looking at the situation from a cost/benefit perspective.

  78. Snape says:

    @Bindidon

    Are the benefits of a permanent war worth the great expense and loss of life?

    Are the benefits of making sure everyone has clean water worth the financial cost?

    *******

    Those are important questions. Why would you insult me for suggesting we ask a similar question with respect to COVID-19?

    • Bindidon says:

      Snape

      ” Are the benefits of making sure everyone has clean water worth the financial cost? ”

      I know one thing for sure: that I never want to communicate again with someone who writes such selfish trash.

      J.-P. D.

  79. Adelaida says:

    Snape,
    Health systems are collapsed !!! Field hospitals, medicalized hotels are being enabled to care for the most seriously affected by covid-19, doctors and health workers, they are left without protective equipment and no one knows where to bury so many dead people suddenly !!. ..
    1 MONTH 20,000 dead!
    1 MONTH 500,000 confirmed infected!

    It is a range unmatched by any other common cause of death you can look for!
    Cost-benefit perspective ???
    A government cannot consider continuing along this line …
    It would be criminal !!!! .
    … Even Trump has realized and will do what he has to do …. although due to erroneously weighing that cost-benefit perspective of which you speak, he did it late and badly , like UK or Spain !!!

    • Gordon Robertson says:

      adelaida…”Health systems are collapsed !!! Field hospitals, medicalized hotels are being enabled to care for the most seriously affected by covid-19…”

      Here in Vancouver, Canada with a population of close to 4 million, we have about 120 people in hospital and about 50 in acute care. Do you call that an epidemic or a pandemic? Less than 100 have died and most were older people in rest homes.

      Covid 19 is claimed to have spread by travellers from China. In the Vancouver area we have over 1 million fairly recent Chinese immigrants. Many of them have been travelling regularly between China and Vancouver, even between the epicentre of the disease.

      Why don’t we have thousands of Chinese dying here like you have Italians dying in Italy and Spaniards dying in Spain? Why are there hardly any Chinese dying over here or people they mix with freely?

      For the first month of this so called epidemic I mixed with Chinese people regularly in local supermarkets. I did not get sick even though I was handling products touched by many Chinese people.

      Why? What kind of virus kills thousand in your part of the world yet hardly anyone in a ports city that has thousands of people travelling to China and back and is located a lot closer to China than Italy or Spain?

      The theories being offered are really pathetic. Not one of them can be verified with the scientific method so they have turned to unvalidated models to create propaganda.

      As one doctor commented, the pandemic is not about the virus it’s about hysteria.

  80. Bindidon says:

    Adelaida

    A nice consolation for sure it isn’t, but it seems that for Spain (and Italy as well) the high mortality rates are increasing more slowly:

    https://drive.google.com/file/d/10ywu7bocaIhTUWt5ILPdu7Gg0pumf1bK/view

    https://drive.google.com/file/d/1UysSwvHvU-x0EmVIC7sCGaJ5MruIq8U3/view

    Here is the US plot for a comparison

    https://drive.google.com/file/d/1tHlwt33kgfLzJBRRKjBQ66N9a1ITr9yw/view

    Feliz pascua
    J.-P. D.

  81. gallopingcamel says:

    @Bindidon:
    “Where is this strange galloping camel named Peter Morcombe, who attacked me some days ago? From the serious French newspaper Le Monde :
    Coronavirus: Serious side effects accumulate on hydroxychloroquine”

    I rebuked you for trashing the reputation of Didier Raoult. It won’t matter since you are a chihuahua snapping at the heels of an elephant.

    Stevan Gibson of the Lupus Foundation of America cites the fact that 300,000 patients are receiving this medication to treat lupus and he says the risk of cardiac complications is “Nil” if the drug is administered by competent physicians.

    The “Media” around the world is trashing this drug because Donald Trump gave it a “Thumbs Up”. Lunatics!

    According to a report on Fox News, 72% of doctors in Spain are prescribing HCQ to their COVID-19 patients compared to only 24% in the USA. I am happy to report that my doctor ready to prescribe it if I get sick.

    • Gordon Robertson says:

      cam…”I am happy to report that my doctor ready to prescribe it if I get sick”.

      I can pretty well guarantee you won’t get sick if you take enough vitamin C. I am not talking the ridiculous amount recommended by governments (about 75 mg) but 4 grams taken twice a day.

      If you begin to feel sick, up the value to 6 or 7 grams on one go, but you’ll have to experiment a bit. You need enough to reach the bowel tolerance level, which can vary according to how sick you are. I have found that 6 grams usually does it although I’ve had to go a bit higher at times. When you reach BT level you will know it. You can’t get to the toilet fast enough. It’s like Jeff Daniels in Dumb and Dumber.

      You follow that up after 4 hours with a similar dose. Some people have been known to take 30 grams to 60 grams, in divided dosages, to fight off the flu, a technique known as the 30 gram flu or the 60 gram flu.

      Vitamin C is known to act against poisons in the body when administered intravenously in doses in excess of 100 grams. A Dr. Klenner treated polio with high doses of C back in the 1940s/50s.

      About the bs that you only pee it out, Linus Pauling did an experiment on himself. He took 10 grams and measured the output from his bladder and bowels. He found 5 grams was excreted and 5 grams retained. He reasoned that any C excreted immediately served as a powerful antioxidant to help maintain the integrity of wherever it passed. It quenches free radicals that can form dangerous compounds in the body.

      I buffer it with about 1 teaspoon ascorbic acid powder to a heaping 1/4 teaspoon of baking soda. If you can’t take sodium, use calcium, magnesium, or something. If you try to reach a high dosage using flavoured tablets, the fillers in the tablets may affect you adversely.

      Over the years, I have found that hitting a cold or the flu early with a bowel tolerance dose not only quickly reduces the effect of the flu, it also significantly reduces any secondary effects like coughing, sneezing, or catahrr.

      There are idiots out there claiming C has no effect but I’m going with personal experience and the work of one of the greatest researchers in chemistry of all time, Linus Pauling.

      • Gordon Robertson says:

        BTW…if you try megadoses, don’t suddenly stop. You will be susceptible to a rebound effect where C is excreted at a high rate matching the input rate. That could lead to not having enough C in the body for normal functioning. Taper off slowly.

        Pauling recommended taking a minimum of 3 grams a day. He based that on the fact that an animal of equivalent size, like a 150 pound billy goat, makes 12 grams for itself a day. Based on that, he figured the billy goat knows a lot more about vitamin C than the government.

    • Bindidon says:

      Morcombe

      I’m 100% immune against your ridiculous insults.
      We will see Inserm’s Discovery results in a few weeks.

      And… reading Fox News, one of this planet’s major misinformers?

      Gracias no.

      J.-P. Dehottay

  82. Adelaida says:

    Gordon
    And I know because I know the Chinese community a bit and for various reasons, at least two experts in the culture of Asia … Asians from the beginning have followed what happened in China on their own television and news. They do not trust official information from our news media at all.
    In fact, those I know pointed out on March 1 that the situation in China was much worse than what appeared on Western television and that there were many more deaths.
    Asians in foreign countries, have immediately taken individual measurements, mask and gloves included …

    • Gordon Robertson says:

      adelaida…”They do not trust official information from our news media at all”.

      It’s not a matter of proving or disproving, the problem is the hysteria created by the media. They have no scientific skill and they don’t care. Their goal is to make profits from sales.

      I know how it looks, there has been a surge of sudden deaths in places like Italy and China and the brain wants to equate them. Science requires proof, however, and the hysteria is not based on proof.

      It’s a theory that viruses will spread randomly throughout a population. If they could, the human race would have been wiped out long ago. No one has ever observed it scientifically but if you get mathematicians involved, they will create all sorts of false projections with their models.

      Italy has experienced a high fatality rate from the common flu since 2015. Why?? No one should rush to answer till the question is understood. However, politicians are scared stiff of making a mistake. They would rather implement Draconian measures than look at the evidence.

      Stefan Lanka, a microbiologist who discovered the first virus in the ocean has claimed that diseases like the bird flu and swine flu were not caused by a virus at all. He said it is more related to the horrible conditions in which we keep animals.

      Right now, scientists are struggling to find a source for covid, so they are blaming it on bats. They can’t even find the virus using a standard method but they are talking about it coming from bats. Meantime, in China, they have wet markets where they have cats for sale to be slaughtered.

      I don’t think this is about a virus it’s about lifestyle. Some people with barbaric minds live in filthy conditions and others don’t look after their health. When a contagion strikes, those kinds of people end up dying and people blame a virus. They cannot explain how the virus works but they are quick to lay blame.

      They did the same with HIV, going so far as to blame an entire nation, Africa, for spreading HIV by sexual transmission. Those poor souls were suffering from malnutrition, contaminated drinking water, and parasitic infections. We now know that HIV is a harmless virus to healthy people and I’m sure the same will be discovered about covid.

      For all we know, the situation in Italy has nothing to do with the situation in China.

      I mean, what other virus in history has ever created a danger like covid is claimed to be?

      Hysteria and propaganda.

  83. Adelaida says:

    Gordon,
    I posted a link in the forum of Dr. Spencer’s post on coronavirus in the EU, which was talking about how it has been proven that the interaction of 1500 mg (I think it was that amount) of Vit C when there is danger of sepsis, reverses the situation and save the person …
    But I have also found this article based on one from Nature, which is from 1998 … and unless it has been later refuted, be careful:

    “Warning: a British study revealed that the indiscriminate intake of the vitamin complex could cause damage to the DNA of cells.”
    https://www-lanacion-com-ar.cdn.ampproject.org/v/s/www.lanacion.com.ar/sociedad/advierten-sobre-el-consumo-en-exceso-de-vitamina-c-artificial-nid94219/amp?amp_js_v=a3&amp_gsa=1&usqp=mq331AQFKAGwASA%3D#aoh=15866844707180&csi=1&referrer=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.google.com&amp_tf=De%20%251%24s&ampshare=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.lanacion.com.ar%2Fsociedad%2Fadvierten-sobre-el-consumo-en-exceso-de-vitamina-c-artificial-nid94219

    Galloping,
    My medical friends in hospitals confirmed the use of hydroxychloroquine as you say, at the beginning of the crisis and the Spanish president reached an agreement with India to buy 2.5 tons of the product …
    Of course, medical control is absolutely necessary! 🙂

    • Gordon Robertson says:

      adelaida…”Warning: a British study revealed that the indiscriminate intake of the vitamin complex could cause damage to the DNA of cells.

      Anyone who would write garbage like that is a freaking idiot. Vitamin C creates the collagen that holds the cells containing DNA together.

      I got my information from Linus Pauling, one of the greatest scientists of all time. He was an expert in chemistry and he studied the DNA molecule. When Watson and Crick found the shape for DNA they had to consult Pauling to understand what they had found. Do you think Pauling did not understand the relationship between high doses of vitamin C and DNA?

      He would have been the first to say so had it been dangerous. Pauling was a scientist of integrity. He was the first to report on the danger of nuclear radiation and the authorities took his passport away for revealing it. If he’d had his passport, he had plans to visit Europe to consult with the female scientist, Rosalind Franklin, who studied DNA with xray diffraction. Had he consulted with her he’d have understood the shape of DNA immediately, and received his third Nobel.

    • gallopingcamel says:

      @Adelaida,
      It is hard to know who to believe since the “experts” are all over the map. First they told us that the disease could not be transmitted from human to human. Then they told us that masks should not be worn by the general public.

      Now we have the media telling us that hydroxychloroquine is dangerous. Having lived in a malaria zone I will take quinine based drugs cheerfully knowing that the risk is not significant, especially since my doctor won’t co-operate if she thinks it will harm me or the risk outweighs the potential benefit.

      Believing the media can be harmful to your health.

  84. Adelaida says:

    Thank you very much Bidindon for the graphics !! 🙂 ….
    Frohe Ostern!

    ( … Now the tension is to see what measures the government takes to maintain the downward trend in deaths ….)

  85. Adelaida says:

    Happy Easter!

    The Orfen Donostiarra records a version of the ‘Hallelujah’ against COVID-19 More than 40 members of the choir sing for the victims and the staff working against the virus

    https://amp-noticiasdegipuzkoa-eus.cdn.ampproject.org/v/s/amp.noticiasdegipuzkoa.eus/cultura/2020/04/04/orfeon-donostiarra-graba-version-hallelujah/1022939.html?amp_js_v=a3&amp_gsa=1&usqp=mq331AQFKAGwASA%3D#aoh=15866828391371&referrer=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.google.com&amp_tf=De%20%251%24s&ampshare=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.noticiasdegipuzkoa.eus%2Fcultura%2F2020%2F04%2F04%2Forfeon-donostiarra-graba-version-hallelujah%2F1022939.html

    It looks like an article out of the newspaper “The Prophet” of the Harry Potter saga by J.K. Rowilng ….
    This fantastic and deeply human literature is highly recommended, in which in the end: Everyone loves Snape !;)

    And a curiosity Spencer’s forum snape:
    Is your name or nickname related to that character?

    I send a wide smile to everyone! Happy day and Lots of hope !!!!

  86. Adelaida says:

    Gordon,
    I already published them and possibly won’t let me do it again but I try:

    “A protocol developed by Dr. Paul Marik, an intensive care physician at Sentara Norfolk General Hospital (East Virginia, United States), has proven that it can reduce septicemia mortality from 40% to 8.5%. This protocol consists of administering the following preparations for two days:

    200 mg of thiamine every 12 hours.
    1,500 mg of ascorbic acid (vitamin C) intravenously every six hours.
    50 mg of hydrocortisone every six hours.
    According to Marik, the best results are obtained when the mixture is administered within the first six hours from the presentation of the symptoms of sepsis. The longer you delay treatment, the less likely it is to be successful.”

    https://www.cuerpomente.com/salud-natural/tratamientos/vitamina-c-coronavirus-covid-19_5961

    https://www.sciencemag.org/news/2020/03/not-wearing-masks-protect-against-coronavirus-big-mistake-top-chinese-scientist-says#

  87. Nate says:

    Average annual mortality for seasonal flu: 10 per 100,000 people with no lockdown.

    Mortality up to today from COVID19 with lockdowns (per 100,000).

    NY state 44
    New Orleans 60
    NY City 73
    Lombardy Province, Italy 105

    Data from here

    https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/us/coronavirus-us-cases.html#states

    https://www.statista.com/statistics/1099389/coronavirus-deaths-by-region-in-italy/

    • Gordon Robertson says:

      nate…”Mortality up to today from COVID19 with lockdowns (per 100,000)”.

      No one knows that for sure. The tests are bogus, they test for a virus using indirect inference. Furthermore, medical personal are being urged by the government to blame deaths on covid no matter how remote the relationship.

    • Nate says:

      “The tests are bogus, they test for a virus using indirect inference.”

      Gordon is a psychological textbook case study of how someone can learn a tiny bit about a subject and then become convinced that they know better than all the experts.

  88. Bindidon says:

    It’s imho hard to be dumber and more arrogant than people writing:

    ” As one doctor commented, the pandemic is not about the virus it’s about hysteria. ”

    Such people should be sentenced by a court to a six-week forced stay in an Italian or Spanish hospital.

    They would then learn a bit about ‘hysteria’ .

    • Amazed says:

      Do any courts take any notice of you? If dumbness and arrogance were criminal offences, the jails would be crammed with climate alarmists. Is that what you want?

      • nurse ratchet says:

        Every time you open your mouth confirms your condition.
        Would you like us to sew it up?

        • Amazed says:

          Ratty,

          You are a perfect example of the dumb and arrogant. Is the “us” you use you and God, or you and your imaginary friend?

          • nurse ratchet says:

            Sewing your mouth would be a pleasure.
            You would be dumb, and GR could be dumber. LOL

          • Amazed says:

            Ratty,

            Do you realise you live in a fantasy world? Your desire to inflict pain on total strangers is symptomatic of delusional alarmists. Luckily, you are completely impotent.

    • Gordon Robertson says:

      binny…”Such people should be sentenced by a court to a six-week forced stay in an Italian or Spanish hospital”.

      “Dr Pablo Goldschmidt is an Argentine-French virologist specializing in tropical diseases, and Professor of Molecular Pharmacology at the Universit Pierre et Marie Curie in Paris. He is a graduate of the Faculty of Pharmacy and Biochemistry of the University of Buenos Aires and Faculty of Medicine of the Hospital Center of Piti-Salpetrire, Paris.

      He currently resides in France, where he has worked for almost 40 years as a researcher in clinical laboratories developing diagnostic technology.

      What he says:

      The ill-founded opinions expressed by international experts, replicated by the media and social networks repeat the unnecessary panic that we have previously experienced. The coronavirus identified in China in 2019 caused nothing less than a strong cold or flu, with no difference so far with cold or flu as we know,

      “It is striking that earlier this year, global health alerts have been triggered as a result of infections by a coronavirus detected in China, COVID-19, knowing that each year there are 3 million newborns who die in the world of pneumonia, and 50,000 adults in the United States for the same cause, without alarms being issued”.

      Stick that up yer hooter.

      • Bindidon says:

        Robertson

        I read about Goldschmidt two weeks ago already:

        https://swprs.org/coronavirus-un-medecin-suisse-parle/

        You are as always: an arrogant braggart who tries to hide facts by presenting completely useless information.

        Where has your ophthalmologist Goldschmidt been in the past six weeks?

        Has he been active in any hospital where so many Italian, Spanish, French and American doctors worked until exhaustion, 12 to 16 hours a day, and where some of them even got infected due to insufficient protection, and lost their life?

        I repeat: people like you should be sentenced by a court to a six-week forced stay in an Italian or Spanish hospital.

        The epidemic moves down a little bit, but there is still enough work to be done.

        Disinfecting rooms, washing protective clothing for doctors and nurses: that would be just the right thing for by brainless people like you who ignore nearly everything.

        You would then learn a bit about hysteria, and discover what you never have had in your life: humility.

        J.-P. D.

        • Gordon Robertson says:

          binny…”Where has your ophthalmologist Goldschmidt been in the past six weeks?”

          “Dr Pablo Goldschmidt is an Argentine-French virologist specializing in tropical diseases, and Professor of Molecular Pharmacology at the Universit Pierre et Marie Curie in Paris”.

          Shows you can’t read French any better than you do German or English. You need to see an opthamologist.

      • Norman says:

        Gordon Robertson

        There you go again peddling your Contrarian Religion. One specialist has an opinion and that is the only one you consider valid. You reject hundreds or thousands of other expert opinions because they are not contrarian opinions. You throw out all other people in favor of a few contrarians you can find.

        The good Doctor Goldschmidt is not so logical though. He points out 50,000 adults die in the US from pneumonia without alarm bells. That is because it is a normal amount, expected. The situation with a novel virus that no one has an immunity to is quite different. I am totally certain if the rate of pneumonia went up 10 times in a year and killed 500,000 adults it would start alarms! Doctors would be really concerned of what was going on and try to figure it out. It it was a contagious disease they would really get concerned.

        Again one of your many pointless posts with the only purpose of spreading your branch of religion. It is goes against the established science then it must be right. Only these ideas are acceptable to you.

        • Gordon Robertson says:

          norman…” One specialist has an opinion and that is the only one you consider valid”.

          One viral expert out of the 22 I posted in an earlier post. I have been waiting for those with the courage to come out of hiding. They are scared after what happened to Duesberg when he correctly claimed HIV is a harmless virus. They ruined his career, something along the lines of climate alarmists trying to ruin the careers of climate skeptics.

          Even after the scientist who discovered HIV confided that it is harmless to a healthy immune system the fear-mongers are still spreading the propaganda that it’s a killer virus. A killer virus that has still not been scientifically identified.

          Trump was right, Fauci should be fired after the way he pushed the HIV/AIDS THEORY long after it was dead. He has a nerve to suggest Trump screwed up after the way Fauci et al assured us in February there was no need to panic.

          “The good Doctor Goldschmidt is not so logical though. He points out 50,000 adults die in the US from pneumonia without alarm bells. That is because it is a normal amount, expected”.

          That’s the point, this year is not that much different than any flu season with the exception that certain people are reacting badly. That’s no reason to panic and shut down the world’s economy. Most people are not even affected by it seriously.

          • Norman says:

            Gordon Robertson

            My brother died from AIDS and had a very healthy immune system. You are a total bozo that has zero ideas of reality and makes up all types of fake ideas.

            Gordon I know your type. I have met them. They read up parts of all types of materials and pretend to be these total experts on all topics. Problem is you are not at all expert on anything an you really know very little. Your motive here is to pretend to be this expert and try to fool people. This blog has many actual science trained people on it and they know you are a phony. You would be much better off posting on PSI blogs. They are not very knowledgeable and would think you are super smart. The people here do not feel this way. Most know you know very little and surface read a lot of stuff, mainly from dumb locations and pretend to be a high level expert on multiple topics.

          • Norman says:

            Gordon Robertson

            Maybe ask Boris Johnson about this disease. Tell him your great ideas on it and see if he agrees with you.

            Also your people may have expert knowledge in diseases, but do they have experience with this disease at all? They are making uninformed opinions about it with no experience dealing with it. Who do you think is telling the politicians how bad it is. Not your uniformed educated experts. No the ones who are experts with actual experience working in the ICU’s treating patients with this disease.

            You won’t accept actual doctors telling you what is going on with this disease that are working on actual patients, but you believe an expert that has no experience dealing with it. Why do you think your sources are credible and the doctors working in the ICU’s are the clueless ones?

            Again talk to Boris Johnson. I am sure he has had flu and colds in his life and he would know the difference.

          • Gordon Robertson says:

            norman…”My brother died from AIDS and had a very healthy immune system”.

            First of all, I am sorry your brother died. You have not made the facts of his death available so all I have is your word that he died with a healthy immune system. The only way that could have happened is if he was declared HIV positive and given toxic antivirals. In that case, if I was you, I’d be mad as hell at a system who killed a guy with a healthy immune system with toxic drugs.

            HIV is NOT AIDS. A positive test result for HIV does not mean a person has AIDS. That’s what is inferred but it is pseudo-science of the highest order. There are many people classified as having AIDS who are not HIV positive. How do you explain that.

            The acronym AIDS is plain dumb. All of the opportunistic infections classified under the AIDS umbrella have known causes. Why do they not treat each infections as the infections it is?

            Your statement above is one of the most stupid statements you have ever made.

            AIDS = acquired immune deficiency syndrome

            How does anyone have a healthy immune system and a deficient immune system at the same time? AIDS as a syndrome means it involves up to 30 opportunistic infections, many known NOT to be caused by a virus.

            Tuberculosis, for example, is caused by a bacterium. If you have TB you are treated for a bacterial infection. If you have TB and test HIV positive, you are claimed to have AIDS and given highly toxic antiviral drugs.

            The HIV-AIDS viral hypothesis is one of the most stupid theories ever offered under the guise of science. It is full of gaping holes and the data of AIDS-related deaths the past 40 years proves conclusively that AIDS in North America and Europe is related 90% to high risk lifestyles.

            In Africa, AIDS is about wasting syndrome, a disease related to malnutrition, contaminated drinking water, and parasitic infections like malaria. It is scientific misconduct to blame wasting syndrome, under those conditions, on a sexually transmitted virus that has never been scientifically isolated, purified, and observed with an electron microscope. The scientist who discovered the phantom virus admits he has never seen the virus.

          • Gordon Robertson says:

            norman…”Maybe ask Boris Johnson about this disease. Tell him your great ideas on it and see if he agrees with you”.

            Boris Johnson was admitted to hospital for preventative reasons, so he’d be close to acute care if required. He was not so sick that he could not carry on the country’s business from hospital. He has recently been discharged.

          • Norman says:

            Gordon Robertson

            I know you are too dishonest to discuss any idea in a rational fashion but you made such a ridiculous claim that your intense level of lying needs to be exposed for what it is.

            YOUR TOTAL LIE (that you repeat over an over, a compulsive liar): “virus that has never been scientifically isolated, purified, and observed with an electron microscope.”

            What motivates you lies? I can’t understand your motivation but you are a total liar.

            Proof of your lies:

            https://www.google.com/search?q=images+of+electron+micrograph+of+HIV&tbm=isch&source=univ&safe=strict&sa=X&ved=2ahUKEwj7wJuitOroAhVEEawKHR14BD8QsAR6BAgKEAE&biw=1280&bih=906

            You are ignorant of why HIV causes AIDS. HIV virus attacks the cells of the immune system destroying the infected cell that it uses to make more copies of itself. As if increases number the immune system is destroyed and all these diseases that could be fought off now grow spread and kill the person. The diseases from the destroyed immune system are what kill the patients. The HIV destroys the immune system which leads to the other diseases being able to destroy the person.

            Idiot about my Brother. He had a good immune system before he was infected by HIV (which is what I implied). Rarely was sick. The HIV destroyed his good immune system and disease that normally could not grow in his body, now could.

            Some people are born with bad immune systems and will have symptoms similar to AIDS (Boy in a Bubble) some drugs weaken the immune system.

            You don’t even know what you are talking about at all but you still keep lying. Why is it necessary for you to lie, repeat and lie even when you are shown that your posts are false, misleading and fake.

            I don’t need to make fun of you like “Nurse Ratchet”. I just can’t figure out why you have to constantly and intentionally lie? I actually would rather you stop doing it and had good valuable posts with Truth in them.

            Lies are not good Gordon. You should deeply reflect on yourself and try to understand why you need to do that.

  89. Amazed says:

    On 2017-2018 flu season, USA. Season around 5 months, daily deaths around 571. Didnt seem to cause much alarm at the time. Maybe everyone wore masks and hid away after getting vaccinated. Must have missed it.

  90. Adelaida says:

    I do not think so Amazed.
    Maybe one day of that complaint campaign but sporadic … talk to a doctor in New York, or any other problematic city …

    Gordon, will be a scientist who lives isolated in his world, in front of miles … that specifically different.

    • Amazed says:

      It doesn’t really matter what you think, does it? have you any figures to back up your thoughts? Have you actually talked to a doctor in New York? What would the doctor know about the national picture?

    • Gordon Robertson says:

      adelaida…” talk to a doctor in New York, or any other problematic city ”

      New York is known as a party city with ghettoes where the poor scrape to get by. That’s where Freddy Mercury of Queen got AIDS, according to one of his male friends. He used to go on wild sprees with multiple male partners using drugs. Drug addiction and the use of designer drugs like cocaine are high in NY. Drugs seriously affect immune systems, as does severe poverty and homelessness.

      https://www.recoveryconnection.com/substance-abuse-statistics-by-state/new-york/

      NY accounts for 40% of all US deaths and there’s still no reports as to who is dying. Fauci of NIAID hinted on TV that most of them are black. In Louisiana, where Afro-Americans make up 30% of the population, they account for 75% of the deaths.

      This is not a racist comment, I care about the well-being of Afro-Americans. It’s simply a sign of the poverty and poor health conditions in which many of them are FORCED to live.

  91. ren says:

    ABSTRACT
    The beginning of 2020 brought us information about the novel coronavirus emerging in China. Rapid research resulted in the characterization of the pathogen, which appeared to be a member of the SARS-like cluster, commonly seen in bats. Despite the global and local efforts, the virus escaped the healthcare measures and rapidly spread in China and later globally, officially causing a pandemic and global crisis in March 2020. At present, different scenarios are being written to contain the virus, but the development of novel anticoronavirals for all highly pathogenic coronaviruses remains the major challenge. Here, we describe the antiviral activity of previously developed by us HTCC compound (N-(2-hydroxypropyl)-3-trimethylammonium chitosan chloride), which may be used as potential inhibitor of currently circulating highly pathogenic coronaviruses – SARS-CoV-2 and MERS-CoV.
    https://www.biorxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.03.29.014183v1?fbclid=IwAR12q0EkY2tyBv1WY5TWn5Trh92WJhCEvriR1e3ku1Qn4VeGLN08aXF-6VE

    • Bindidon says:

      ren

      Good catch, plain looking paper.

      J.-P. D.

    • Gordon Robertson says:

      ren…”Rapid research resulted in the characterization of the pathogen, which appeared to be a member of the SARS-like cluster, commonly seen in bats”.

      Did you notice the qualifier ‘appeared to be’? This invisible virus has not been identified using proper scientific methods established for isolating a virus. It has been inferred based on RNA that is THOUGHT to come from a virus. There’s no proof since RNA is a basic nucleic acid found in every human cell.

      For the first ten years of the HIV/AIDS crisis the media always claimed HIV as the virus THOUGHT to cause AIDS. Along the way they dropped the THOUGHT to and started calling it the AIDS-virus.

      We are witnessing some seriously bad science right now that has promoted hysteria and propaganda. I cringe to think what they are targeting with the highly toxic antivirals, which are known to cause serious blood disorders, kidney and liver failure, and death. The irony is they can also cause AIDS opportunistic infection (IRS). You start out with an inferred virus and end up with AIDS.

    • Bindidon says:

      ren

      … and above all, don’t bother about Robertson’s permanent urge in lying.

      The SARS_COV-2 has been identified using the most modern electron microscopy technologies, final point.

      • Norman says:

        Bindidon

        You are correct about Gordon Robertson, he seems a compulsive liar and spreader of totally bogus information. Many have corrected his false and fake facts but he comes right back with them. Either he is as ignorant as you presume or he has an agenda and ignores the people giving him the Truth.

        So far not one bit of real information has prevented him from posting his continuous false and fake information.

        When I do make an error and someone points it out I check up on it and correct myself to improve my data base. Gordon does not care, he continues to lie and mislead with a purpose and I really don’t understand it. Normally when caught in outright lies people back down and correct the error.

        • Bindidon says:

          Norman

          ” Many have corrected his false and fake facts but he comes right back with them. ”

          Yes of course.

          One of the best examples is his dumb insisting on NOAA ‘having slashed 4500 of 6000 GHCN stations’, where he was contradicted so many times by several people, who explained him that
          – all these 4500 stations reported data using paper sheets sent by fax or telex, and that
          – they had to be – and were – replaced my many more new stations.

          { The best thing is that if NOAA hadn’t given up these stations, people like Robertson would have been on the front line to reproach this institution for inefficient behavior! }

          *
          There are many other examples of his stupid lies
          – time dilation, in which he brazenly tries to describe Louis Essen as the adversary to Einstein he never was;
          – his totally unscientific refutation of Peter Morcombe’s statement that Newton’s laws cannot be used to calculate the induction force of magnets in a synchrotron, which definitely require Einstein’s principles of relativity;
          – his stupid attempts to make R G Wood, who was 100 years ago a worldwide renowned specialist in visible light, a specialist in far IR (what he has never been).

          *
          And so on. French people would say: la liste de ses inqualifiables mensonges est longue comme un jour sans pain.

          And we all can be sure that Robertson will ever and ever repeat his lies.

          • nurse ratchet says:

            We have been treating GR for quite some time. The brain operations have been failures – mainly because we cannot find one.

  92. _nh gi nh ci says:

    Thankfulness to my father who stated to me concerning this website, this
    weblog is really amazing.

  93. Adelaida says:

    Welcome nh gi nh ci !!

    I have only been following the blog for a few months and you can learn many things about the global climate !!
    … It is a pity that some are so rude and disrespectful … Hopefully it will pass!

    Amazed:
    Undoubtedly, for speaking to be profitable, it must be done by providing data and the sources from which it is obtained.
    Apologies.

  94. theRealPlastic says:

    Gordon is a contrarian invested in being a Cassandra, but the problem is he’s ACTUALLY wrong. It is evident from his arguments and the insults he uses that he has not accomplished any sort of higher learning (e.g. calling medical professionals advocating for social distancing “candy asses” ).

    I made the comment earlier in this thread that he robotically makes repetitive arguments citing irrelevant outliers as his resources…”experts” not even peripherally involved in the fields they comment upon. It is an attempt to win an argument by making you get fed up with him and abandon the conversation…

    It’s actually truly chilling someone is so dedicated to being so willfully stupid.

    Bindi, Norman, Adelaida, I feel your same frustration…but Gordon is a serpent who just grows a new head every time one is cut off. He strategically avoids pointed questions, too, because he is ignorant with no leg to stand on. Yet he persists.

  95. Gordon Robertson says:

    plastic…”I made the comment earlier in this thread that he robotically makes repetitive arguments citing irrelevant outliers as his resources”

    There is a reason for my repetitive posts, I am replying to repetitive pseudo-scientific posts.

    The truth is that the medical personnel advising governments right now are candy asses who have grown up in a paradigm while lacking the guts to question it. There are modelers who have never scientifically proved their model outputs. There are medical personnel advising social distancing when there is not an iota of scientific proof that it does anything.

    They are giving no credit to the human immune system to deal with this phantom virus. Here in Canada, over 90% of those tested, test negative. And they were all exposed to this phantom virus for weeks before social distancing was implemented and people advised to stay at home. The majority of those getting seriously ill are the elderly in rest homes and those with already compromised immune systems.

    If you put 100 people in a room, singled out ten and injected them with a KNOWN virus, then allowed them to mingle, you could observe how many of the 90 were infected and by how much. That has not been done outside of Dr. Mengeles in a Nazi concentration camp for obvious reasons.

    You would have to monitor the ten to see how each reacted to the virus then you’d have to observe all of them to get the overall reaction. While you were at it you could get another set of observers to observe the observers to see how many acquired the virus and how it affected them.

    The experiment would be a colossal exercise in data analysis yet here we are getting daily reports on deaths from covid 19 when there is not a ‘scientific’ iota of proof that the virus exists never mind the tests for it that cannot test for a virus. On top of that, US medical personnel are being strongly advised to report deaths as being covid-related even when it is apparent a death is from another obvious cause.

    There is little or no science behind the current hysteria yet here we are under literal house arrest based on the THEORIES of candy asses who THINK it might be such a good idea they have to enforce it.

  96. Gordon Robertson says:

    Stats from Canada as of yesterday, April 13, 2020.

    https://www.statista.com/statistics/1107034/covid19-cases-deaths-tests-canada/

    “As of April 13, 2020, over 437,475 Canadians had been tested for coronavirus (COVID-19) infection, leading to an accumulated 25,663 confirmed cases of the disease. As of this date, 780 people have died due to COVID-19 in Canada”.

    Also…

    https://www.msn.com/en-ca/news/canada/the-latest-numbers-on-covid-19-in-canada/ar-BB12vwUk?li=AAggFp5

    Rounding off to 25,000 infections, even though the tests as misleading, compared to the total number of tests, 437,475, the 25,000 represents 5.7% infected. That means 94.3% are unaffected. How can anyone in his/her right mind call this a pandemic?

    There are 780 dead out of a population of 36 million. That’s about 0.002%. Pandemic????

    I’ll bet you would get the same results seasonally from the flu. The only difference is that this flu is more virulent to a small percentage of the population.

  97. Adelaida says:

    “It is the first time that an image of the native SARS-CoV-2, the Covid-19 pathogen, has been created by cryo-EM,” they explain.

    This technique consists of observing the virus in this case, under cryogenic preservation temperatures.

    In this way, the images have been obtained, which show in detail the SARS-CoV-2 virion, as well as the ‘ears’ that cover it and form the ‘crown’. ”

    https://amp-redaccionmedica-com.cdn.ampproject.org/v/s/amp.redaccionmedica.com/secciones/sanidad-hoy/foto-del-coronavirus-asi-es-de-verdad-el-sars- cov-2-9256? amp_js_v = a3 & amp_gsa = 1 & usqp = mq331AQFKAGwASA% 3D # aoh = 15869419624803 & csi = 1 & referrer = https% 3A% 2F% 2Fwww.google.com & amp_tf = De% 20% 251% 2S & amphare = 2 redaccionmedica.com% 2Fsecciones% 2Fsanidad-hoy% 2Ffoto-del-coronavirus-asi-es-de-truly-el-sars-cov-2-9256

    Extracts from Wikipedia on the origin of viruses:

    “There are three main theories about the origin of viruses: [50] [51]

    Cell regression theory (also known as “degeneration theory”): Viruses may have been small cells at first that parasitized larger ones. Over time, these virus precursors lost the genes they did not need because of their parasitism. ”

    “Theory of molecular-cellular origin (also called the ‘nomadism hypothesis’ or the ‘wandering hypothesis’): [52] [54] some viruses may have evolved from DNA or RNA fragments that” escaped “from genes from a larger cellular organism. ”

    “Coevolution Theory: Viruses could have co-evolved along with the first cells to appear on Earth forming from complex nucleic acid and protein molecules, and would have been dependent on cell life for many millions of years.”

    “Computer analysis of DNA sequences from viruses and hosts is yielding a better understanding of the evolutionary relationships between different viruses and could help to identify the ancestors of modern viruses. Currently these analyzes have not helped decide which ( or which) of the previously outlined theories is correct. However, it seems unlikely that all currently known viruses share a common ancestor, and viruses have probably appeared multiple times in the past through one or more mechanisms, which could be correct all of them. “[65]

    https://es.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Virus

  98. Adelaida says:

    Similarly, I also expect an apology from you …

    • Amazed says:

      A,

      “In total, the CD_C estimates that up to 42.9 million people got sick during the 2018-2019 flu season, 647,000 people were hospitalized and 61,200 died. Thats fairly on par with a typical season, and well below the CD_Cs 2017-2018 estimates of 48.8 million illnesses.

      why am I supposed to apologise to you? For preferring US Gov figures to what you think”?

  99. Adelaida says:

    The comment above is for Amazed first …

    For whatever reason it is not published where I have responded

  100. Adelaida says:

    Amazed
    In the comment I was referring to and to which I also responded happily … you give the fact that in the 2017-2018 flu season more than 500 people died a day …. Without providing any reference link or anything. …
    In response, I also responded as it seemed, and I dared simply say: I do not believe it.

    Now with the data you give in this last comment, about which you do not provide a link to see them, but which resemble those that have been handled by dr. Spencer in this post …:

    The 61,000 complaint deaths of the 2017-2018 season … are annual deaths.
    (The complaint occurs all year, although the concentration of cases is higher from October to April).

    If you go to worldometers, you will see that in very little more than a month, … there are already more than 28,000 dead, direct (or if not the true ones associated with the way they have been accounted for) a coronavirus in the USA …

    Norman, in a comment (13 april 2020) on the next and last post by Dr. Spencer points out how in the last update of momo the graphics are closer to the real situation.

    It is a matter of time and unfortunately, not much, see it in the graphs.

    • Gordon Robertson says:

      nate…”Thorough test of hypothesis that its no worse rhan the flu”

      If covid is so deadly why is the death rate in Canada at 0.003% of the total population. Why in Italy is the death rate at 0.03%?

      Out of about 450,000 people tested in Canada only 6% tested positive. It’s obvious this phantom virus hits some people hard and leaves the vast majority unscathed. That;s if the contagion is caused by a virus.

      Have you looked at the graph you posted at all? It shows the y-axis in deaths per million and it peaks at 40 deaths per million. There are 350 millions people in the US meaning 14,000 people have died of this phantom virus.

      How many of those deaths are from a virus alone? As we know, medical personnel in the US are under pressure to report deaths as covid related even if there is no proof covid had anything to do with the death.

      If you studied the number of deaths from the flu using the same biased parameters I’ll bet you’d get the same steep curve.

      Science, Nate…science.

      • Nate says:

        ‘Science, Natescience.’ Gordon, you care about science?

        Clearly some countries are doing better about limiting the spread of the virus than others.

        One factor is population density, which is very low in Canada, and Montana, Idaho, etc, which also have few infected.

        That is a separate issue from how deadly it is.

        Looking at a high-infection-rate zone, eg NY, or Lombardy province in Italy, you see that the mortality is unequivocally higher than all other causes. For comparison, you can see flu much much lower.

        https://www.thenewatlantis.com/imgLib/20200414_CovidweeklydeathsNYv3.jpg

  101. Nate says:

    42.9 Million sick led to 62000 deaths in a year ok.

    So far we have 0.5 million cases, lets double it for untested to 1 Million.

    We have 33000 deaths so far in a month.

    You don’t see the difference?

    Lets be explicit 62000/42.9 Million is 0.15%

    33000/1 million is 3.3% consistent with estimates elsewhere.

    From here

    https://www.thenewatlantis.com/imgLib/20200414_CovidweeklydeathsNYv3.jpg

    we also can see that weekly death rates in high infection rate NY state are well above all other causes.

    • Bindidon says:

      Nate

      Even Worldometers’ conservative estimate confirms what you write:

      https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/coronavirus-death-rate/#comparison

      SARS-COV-2’s fatality rate is estimated – on this page – at 2 %.

      But the average of all their data worldwide gives, in deaths per cases, 6.6 %.

      And this value does not take the elapsed time between case detection and death into account.

      We will see at the end how the definitive value looks like.

      J.-P. D.

    • Gordon Robertson says:

      nate…”So far we have 0.5 million cases, lets double it for untested to 1 Million.

      We have 33000 deaths so far in a month.

      You dont see the difference?”

      The difference I see is hysteria and propaganda overruling science. Modern science is forsaking the scientific method in favour of consensus, unvalidated models, and politicians talking through their hats.

      • Nate says:

        Gordon seems to think 0.15% and 3.3% are no different…

      • Norman says:

        Gordon Robertson

        It is not hysteria an propaganda overruling science. The science is not there yet. Science is a system based upon evidence.

        Here is what happened. A new virus (which is seems you seem believe does not actually exist and all the deaths are from some other cause. Not sure why you think this is a valid speculation or what it is based upon. You do not accept the actual EM images of this virus and you do not accept the DNA/RNA unique to only this virus as proof it exists).

        If if is a new virus, the facts are no one is known to have a natural immunity to it since it is new. So that is one fact to consider in the calculus. The other, all the evidence points to that is is highly infectious and has the ability to kill significant numbers of people infected by it. Experts in the field try to build the best models of this disease potential based upon what evidence they had available at the time. They use past diseases and plug in some values for the RO value (how infectious it is) and the mortality if infected.

        It is an ongoing process. Maybe the early models had high estimates but when you have so many unknowns a safety action is to separate the virus from the fuel (living cells) viruses need living cells to reproduce. No fuel and the virus dies out, the fire goes out. You do this to buy time to get better information.

        If leaders followed your advice and millions ended up dying because you were wrong would you think your opinions were a good thing? I think the current process is the most logical and rational path to take facing an unknown. Minimize the available food for the virus and get better data so you can make valid scientific claims based upon good data. As the disease progresses they learn more everyday. You have thousands of highly trained experts working on this disease. You have countless doctors working to find the best treatment to maximize survival of extreme infections.

        More data is needed. At this time they are not sure if a light dose keeps you safe. They do not know how long immunity lasts. The people who initially had a light dose may not be immune and could face a more severe round in the future. It is another unknown that they are trying to determine.

        The amount of virus you receive in your first exposure may determine how severe the illness gets. If you have a large amount of infected people spreading the virus in the air and you breathe in a large amount it might be much worse for you than if you inhale a smaller amount. More data needed.

  102. Adelaida says:

    Nate your comments and links are irrefutable! Thank you!

  103. Adelaida says:

    Again I have mistranslated it with google ….
    I’m in the same line Nate, sorry for the mistakes, if you have understood otherwise …
    complain deaths = deaths from flu

    And at the end:
    We’re going to see It on the graphs….. As you show it

  104. Bindidon says:

    Germany’s current basic reproductive ratio R0 for COVID-19 is 1: these days, one infected person infects one other person in turn on average.

    We are therefore at a crossroads:
    – if our precautionary measures remain, the number will continue to fall;
    – if the lifting of the lockdown is too strong, we move back to the epidemic as it was two months ago.

    According to Germany’s CD-C (the Robert Koch Institute), this condition is expected to occur
    – in the course of the coming October with an R0 of 1.1;
    – during June at R0 = 1.2;
    – during May (!!) at R0 = 1.3

    That says everything about the difficulty of returning to normal conditions, especially if we consider that according to Worldometers’s data I collected daily, the mortality rate due to COVID-19 in Germany moved from 0.4 % on March 23 up to 2.8 % on April 15 (for the US in comparison: from 1.3 up to 4.4 %, and in the UK from 5.0 up to 13.1 %).

    J.-P. D.

    • Gordon Robertson says:

      binny…” if the lifting of the lockdown is too strong, we move back to the epidemic as it was two months ago”.

      Where’s the scientific proof. Upon what validated science are they basing their ‘projections’?

    • Nate says:

      Bindidon,

      Any thoughts on what Germany is doing that other countries arent to prevent such high mortality?

      Their mortality rate deaths/(deaths +recovered) seems to have settled on 5%, whereas Italy and Spain and US much higher and not settled.

      Maybe this means theyre tracking numbers of cases better and including more mildly sick people.

      Also in US, many nursing homes for elderly people have become hotspots of infection, and high mortality..maybe this has been prevented in Germany.

      • Bindidon says:

        Nate

        ” Any thoughts on what Germany is doing that other countries aren’t to prevent such high mortality? ”

        *
        No idea, because
        – Germany tested 2 * more than US, and 4 * more than UK, but… less than Italy;
        – here in GM too, many elder people died in nursing homes, but far less than in France.

        There is above all in Western Europe a little country no one talks about: Belgium.

        And if you open Worldometers’ country page:

        and click two times on the column header ‘Deaths/million’ you see – after eliminating micro-states like San Marino, Andorra and the like – Belgium at top position with today 419/million.

        I really don’t know what happened there.

        Sure:
        – viral mortality increases with population density (and hence the number of contacts per surface unit)
        and
        – countries connected due to a heavier colonial past with today’s poorest countries will be affected more than those with higher population homogeneity.

        But does that explain everything?

        No se.

  105. Adelaida says:

    “From April 8, people in Wuhan will receive authorization to leave the city and Hubei province, in central China, if they have a green health code, which implies that they have not had contact with any person infected with coronavirus or suspected of having been infected, as explained by the provincial control office of COVID-19 in a circular. ”
    https://navarra-elespanol-com.cdn.ampproject.org/v/s/navarra.elespanol.com/articulo/internacional/internacional-coronavirus-china-salud/20200324105955317028.amp.html?amp_js_v=a3&amp_gsa=1&usqp=mq331AQFKAGwASA%3D#aoh=15871121492578&referrer=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.google.com&amp_tf=De%20%251%24s&ampshare=https%3A%2F%2Fnavarra.elespanol.com%2Farticulo%2Finternacional%2Finternacional-coronavirus-china-salud%2F20200324105955317028.html

    Well look at worldometers China!
    1290 new dead

  106. Adelaida says:

    Nate, this has happened:

    07.35 WUHAN REVIEWS THE NUMBER OF DEATHS FROM CORONAVIRUSES AND ADDS 50% MORE

    The focus of the Wuhan City coronavirus pandemic today revised the number of deaths caused by the disease in the city and added 1,290 more to the 2,579 announced so far, reaching 3,869, the Chinese state news agency Xihnua reported and collected by Efe.
    The National Health Commission itself had reported just three hours before the total death toll in Wuhan stood at 2,579 while in the Hubei province the death toll stood at 3,222.

    According to Xinhua, the Wuhan Municipal Government has also revised upwards the total number of coronavirus cases, although the percentage increase is less: 325 more cases to 50,333 compared to 50,008 reported by the National Health Commission hours before.

    https://amp-elmundo-es.cdn.ampproject.org/v/s/amp.elmundo.es/ciencia-y-salud/salud/2020/04/16/5e98549121efa0ca3e8b4570.html?amp_js_v=a3&amp_gsa=1&usqp=mq331AQFKAGwASA%3D#aoh=15871323289545&referrer=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.google.com&amp_tf=De%20%251%24s&ampshare=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.elmundo.es%2Fciencia-y-salud%2Fsalud%2F2020%2F04%2F16%2F5e98549121efa0ca3e8b4570.html

  107. Adelaida says:

    But Bindidon at what time did Germany start to test and at what time did Italy or Spain ?? ….

    I just can’t find it in the news …. But I think I remember that on March 1 Germany was already buying a lot of tests and at that very moment the Spanish president said that he wasn’t going to buy tests because we were in the containment stage.

    Maybe you have the initial data from March 1 (or even before) of the epidemic saved and you can see with what number of infected and dead people began testing Germany, Italy, Spain, Portugal …..

    France has hardly done a test … or so indicates worldometers! and mortality has skyrocketed …

    USA started late of course and UK tb …

    It is very curious to see the table of worldometers from the number of tests / Million inhabitants … and then see what countries are ….
    A general glance, makes you see that except USA, Spain and Italy …
    in general: many tests indicate few deaths …
    taking into account the time when the tests started
    (early or late) and isolation measures.

    I do not know the results that will give a more exhaustive analysis about it …

    By the way, Portugal follows the German low mortality line and complies with the (early tests and early isolation measures)

    It is an opinion nothing more, obviously.

  108. Adelaida says:

    Besides Bindidon there is also a social behavior in Germany different from Spain, Italy and Portugal, which the newspapers have exposed:

    In Germany, older people are not as in contact with young people as occurs in our countries, and the coronavirus infection in Germany, when doing early tests, was mainly detected in young people and it was easier to isolate them, due to the speed with which it was detected and the conjunctural separation of German society between old and young.

    In addition to the consequent and correct isolation measures and the excellent German health infrastructure.

    “Cultural factors may also weigh. The data from China say that between 75% and 80% of the infections from Covid-19 have occurred in family nuclei, according to WHO’s Bruce Aylward, told The New York Times, but daily contact between young and old is not the same in all societies As Moritz Kuhn, from the University of Bonn (Germany) suggests, people between 30 and 49 years old who live with their parents exceed 20% in Italy, China or Japan, while in Germany they are just over 10%. ”

    https://elpais-com.cdn.ampproject.org/v/s/elpais.com/sociedad/2020/03/20/actualidad/1584729408_422864.amp.html?amp_js_v=a3&amp_gsa=1&usqp=mq331AQFKAGwASA%3D#aoh=15871985216515&amp_ct=1587198688079&referrer=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.google.com&amp_tf=De%20%251%24s&ampshare=https%3A%2F%2Felpais.com%2Fsociedad%2F2020%2F03%2F20%2Factualidad%2F1584729408_422864.html

    https://www-nytimes-com.cdn.ampproject.org/v/s/www.nytimes.com/es/2020/04/06/espanol/mundo/Alemania-tasa-mortalidad-virus.amp.html?amp_js_v=a3&amp_gsa=1&usqp=mq331AQFKAGwASA%3D#aoh=15871985216515&amp_ct=1587198527637&referrer=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.google.com&amp_tf=De%20%251%24s&ampshare=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.nytimes.com%2Fes%2F2020%2F04%2F06%2Fespanol%2Fmundo%2FAlemania-tasa-mortalidad-virus.html

  109. Adelaida says:

    “The director of the Institute of Virology of the Charit in Berlin, Christian Drosten, alludes to two reasons: Germany detected the virus at a very early stage, which allowed them to act with a certain advantage, and secondly, the country is at the forefront in regards to diagnosis .
    A circumstance that is sustained in that the country has a wide network of laboratories that were able to diagnose the virus and activate the consequent measures without the need for a centralized order by any agency. In fact, the tests were available from January through primary care.
    “Our laboratories are technically very well equipped,” added Drosten, “our regulations for the introduction of new tests are very flexible and the different insurers had the permission, and the financial support, to carry out the tests since January,” when the number of cases in Germany it was still in single digits.
    But it was also taken into account that many of the first cases affected the younger age groups, such as people returning from vacations or at working age, which allowed the virus to be contained, by reducing the possibility of developing serious complications in patients.
    but, above all, he gave the authorities enough time to prepare. “I am sure that the combination of these variables gave us an important advantage in recognizing and treating the epidemic in Germany,” said Drosten.”
    https://www-larazon-es.cdn.ampproject.org/v/s/www.larazon.es/internacional/20200321/q4wgz6c54jdzrdfvaupn3eyg6u.html?amp_js_v=a3&amp_gsa=1&outputType=amp&usqp=mq331AQFKAGwASA%3D#aoh=15872015606888&csi=1&referrer=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.google.com&amp_tf=De%20%251%24s&ampshare=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.larazon.es%2Finternacional%2F20200321%2Fq4wgz6c54jdzrdfvaupn3eyg6u.html

    • Snape says:

      Bindidon says:
      April 13, 2020 at 6:16 PM
      Snape

      ” Are the benefits of making sure everyone has clean water worth the financial cost? ”

      I know one thing for sure: that I never want to communicate again with someone who writes such selfish trash.

      J.-P. D.

      ******

      Honestly Bin, why do you jump to conclusions and assume I am selfish when I didn’t even give an opinion?

      The cost of helping developing nations with clean water is insignificant compared to the benefit, and yet millions and millions of people do not have access to clean water. It is appalling.
      I encourage everyone to donate what they can to organizations like Mercy Corp, who help with this and many other such problems. Money well spent.

      https://www.mercycorps.org/

      • Gordon Robertson says:

        snape…”The cost of helping developing nations with clean water is insignificant compared to the benefit, and yet millions and millions of people do not have access to clean water. It is appalling”.

        Contaminated drinking water is one of the three causes of what is called wasting syndrome in Africa. The rocket scientists at the World Health Organization along with Bill Gates is blaming wasting syndrome on the sexual transmission of HIV. Besides contaminated water and parasitic infections, the same people suffer from severe malnutrition.

        What kind of an idiotic minds, when observing such blatant evidence, right in from of their idiotic noses, could reach for a phantom virus as an explanation? I have always regarded Bill Gates as some kind of buffoon. He got immensely wealthy by accident not by genius and now he is revealing his utter lack of common sense.

        Malaria kills more people around the world than what is attributed to the current phantom virus. Why has it not been declared an epidemic with people in countries with malaria forced to stay at home?

        You know, this current fantasy pandemic has had medical professionals practising for years on how to deal with such a pandemic. Anthony Fauci of the US NIAID even warned that Trump could face such an pandemic soon. Bill Gates gave him a similar warning.

        Makes me wonder if perhaps this contagion was planned to give the medical crews some practice.

  110. Snape says:

    @ Adelaide, Bindidon

    You seem to think it is immoral to consider the cost of lockdown orders. I think it is stupid not to.

    *******

    [They mostly live in squalid housing in congested urban ghettos. But with no daily earnings, no savings, and thus no way to buy food, they must head to their home villages to survive.

    Train services are suspended, taxis are unaffordable and the hundreds of buses brought to the outskirts of New Delhi to ferry people home lacked enough seats.

    That leaves walking. The government told Indias top court on Tuesday that 500,000 to 600,000 migrants have walked to their villages from cities.

    As the crisis worsened, authorities scrambled to arrange transport, shelter and food for them.

    But it was too late.

    Some people died under the physical strain of the relentless walking, while others were killed in road accidents. Some were beaten at state borders by police, who said they were just trying to manage the crowds of people.]

    https://www.huffpost.com/entry/indian-migrants-coronavirus-walk-lockdown_n_5e843f87c5b65dd0c5d68b49

    ******

    Worth noting:

    – as of April 17 in Italy, a total of 7 deaths in the age group 20-29 (single digits under 20).

    – the median age in India is 27

    • Gordon Robertson says:

      snape…”Some people died under the physical strain of the relentless walking…”

      The damned gall of the idiots running India after the way they have allowed major cities like Calcutta and Bombay to become cesspools of disease, then react like this to a phantom virus.

      That goes for the poverty in those cities as well.

  111. Gordon Robertson says:

    snape…” as of April 17 in Italy, a total of 7 deaths in the age group 20-29 (single digits under 20″).

    As of about the same date, the death rate in Canada (36 million) is 0.003%. In Italy, about 60 million, it is 0.03%).

    Just read an article in which the writer claimed surprise that US residents simply lay down and allowed themselves to be forced out of work, forced to stay at home, and businesses to be ruined. One would expect that from an Adolf Hitler regime.

    I can see an immense backlash once people get it that they have been had by medical advisors who don’t have the slightest idea what they are talking about. None of the recommendation in the US or Canada can meet the requirements of the scientific method, and certainly, the infringement on peoples’ right in a democratic countries cannot be justified.

    Well worth the read….

    **NOTE****remove * from uncoverd*c in URL. d*c strikes again.

    https://uncoverd*c.com/2020/04/07/was-the-covid-19-test-meant-to-detect-a-virus/

  112. gallopingcamel says:

    I have tremendous respect for the Russian, Chinese and Iranian scientists who were my friends and colleagues for many years at Duke university.

    Today I am in awe of people like Ai Fen (Wuhan Doctor) and Xiang Botao (Virologist) who published things that they must have known would get them into serious trouble. Where are these people? Are they in prison or are they dead?

    https://web.archive.org/web/20200214144447/https:/www.researchgate.net/publication/339070128_The_possible_origins_of_2019-nCoV_coronavirus

    Note that this paper was published in February and has since been “Taken Down” from the Internet. Fortunately it is still accessible thanks to the “Wayback Machine”.

    We owe it to these brave people to make such a fuss that the Chinese government will be forced to explain what happened to them.

    • Gordon Robertson says:

      cam…”Today I am in awe of people like Ai Fen (Wuhan Doctor) and Xiang Botao (Virologist) who published things that they must have known would get them into serious trouble. Where are these people? Are they in prison or are they dead?”

      *****

      Don’t know what is going on in China but I do know that when highly experienced virologists like Peter Duesberg speak out with skepticism in North America they take the chance of having their careers ruined. It’s the same as China, the punishment is different.

      Looking at your article, it presumes that the genome of the covid virus has been determined. How is that possible when the virus has not been isolated, purified, and seen with an electron microscope? If it had been, they could have taken the RNA/DNA from it directly and formulated tests to test directly for a virus.

      The other day, Adelaida posted a micrograph allegedly of the covid19 virus which had been freeze dried. The first question coming to mind was why they had to freeze dry it? Unfortunately, there was no explanation offered as to how they did the procedure so we have no idea if it is the covid19 virus.

      The next part of the process is the key. When the virus has been isolated, it can be injected into a cell culture to see if it produces the same effect.

      A virus is highly visible under an electron microscope so why are we not getting micrographs of the actual virus in plentiful numbers? The other micrographs posted with Adelaidas article looked nothing like a virus. NIAID posted an alleged pictograph of covid19 but one particle was twice the size of the other while the shapes varied.

      You understand science. Purification of a virus requires injecting the alleged virus in its culture into a sugar solution graded by density. Then it is centrifuged so that the particles settle into specific density bands for a virus. The particles from the band are retrieved and viewed under an electron microscope where they should all the the same shape and size. That is not the case with the NAIAD micrograph. It’s not possible to have particles from the same density band when one particle is twice the size of the other.

      The tests don’t test for a virus. They use the viral loading technique which depends on the PCR method for amplifying DNA, which is converted from RNA in this case, found in infected people and PRESUMED to be from a virus.

      That method has been debunked by the scientist who invented the PCR method, who claims further it should not be used as a diagnostic tool. He points out the obvious, that the viral loading method only amplified DNA. If you could not find the virus before amplification, according to him, you cannot find it after amplification.

      My question is why they cannot find HIV, SARS, H1N1, H5N1, or covid19, using the standard method for identifying a virus. Has the virus gained covert means for avoiding detection?

      We need to get more serious in science, papers submitted for peer review are filled with may, maybe, possibly, and every form of guessing. Since studies on HIV, the standard method for identifying a virus has been abandoned and replaced with inference. That is not the scientific method, which requires direct observation.

      Scientists should be claiming, “We THINK the current contagion is caused by a virus”. That’s what they did with HIV for the first 10 years then the media changed THINK it’s a virus to the AIDS-Virus. In your article, the Chinese scientists should be saying, “We think we may have found evidence of RNA that is found in both humans and bats”. They should not be claiming a virus till they have followed the proper method and taken RNA directly from a virus.

  113. Adelaida says:

    Galopante:

    Ese documento est accesible en Google Scholar y van actualizando la informacin tb:
    https://www.zerohedge.com/health/smoking-gun-chinese-scientist-finds-killer-coronavirus-probably-originated-laboratory-wuhan

    Lo hemos subido ya hace das….y tienes toda la razn.

    Snape,

    Espero que la variedad de anticuerpos que tienen los habitantes de la India, las altas temperaturas y elevadsima humedad en grandes zonas les ayuden con el coronavirus.

    Es verdad que las condiciones de vida de la mayora son miserables y hay una altsima densidad de poblacin, por eso aunque haya sido fatal el xodo a sus pueblos de origen para algunos, quizs pueda salvar a muchos ese distanciamiento de las ciudades…

    El confinamiento decretado por su presidente, una medida increble en un pas con ms de un millar de habitantes, lo ha seguido el pueblo ejemplarmente….la poblacin cree en su valor y en su presidente…

    La medida de aislamiento es inteligente ante la incertidumbre:

    Da pnico pensar en la catstrofe humanitaria que puede llegar a ser…pero sin esa medida de confinamiento hasta que empiece el gran calor humedo en mayo….seguramente sera mucho peor.

    Mi hermano vive all.

    • Gordon Robertson says:

      adelaida…”Ese documento est accesible en Google Scholar y van actualizando la informacin tb:”

      The nonsense that covid19 was developed in a Chinese lab is nothing more than propaganda from the US government. It’s along the same lines of the propaganda spread by the Democrats that the Russians hacked into their electoral system and gave Trump the victory.

      The propaganda is obviously a diversion to hide the Draconian methods they employed to shut down the US economy, putting people out of work and closing businesses. As it turns out, with deaths in the US in the range of 1/100th of one percent by population, there was no need to follow such possibly illegal actions.

      They are justifying it by claiming social distancing and house arrest have stopped the virus which is scientific bs. No one has proved scientifically that social distancing does anything. It is untested, and to prove it they would need a control group with a significant amount of the population carrying on life as normal. Only then could they prove that social distancing and house arrest made a difference.

      I have far more faith in the human immune system. If it was not effective against a virus the human race would have become extinct long ago. I think at least 95% of us would have survived this contagion without intervention.

      What we are experiencing is an ugly power grab by so-called leaders who panic and become hysterical over nothing. They are lead by social scientists who use computer models and who apply unproved, and untested methodology to behave like dictators.

  114. Adelaida says:

    Galloping:

    That document is accessible in Google Scholar and they are updating the information as well:

    https://www.zerohedge.com/health/smoking-gun-chinese-scientist-finds-killer-coronavirus-probably-originated-laboratory-wuhan

    Snape,

    I hope that the variety of antibodies that Indians have, the high temperatures and very high humidity in large areas will help them with the coronavirus.

    It is true that the living conditions of the majority are miserable and there is a high density of population, so although the exodus to their home towns has been fatal for some, perhaps this distance from the cities can save many …

    The confinement decreed by its president, an incredible measure in a country with more than a thousand inhabitants, has been followed exemplary by the people .the population believes in its value and its president

    The insulation measure is smart in the face of uncertainty:

    It is scary to think about the humanitarian catastrophe that can be … but without that measure of confinement until the great wet heat begins in May … it will surely be much worse.

    My brother lives there.

    • Snape says:

      [The insulation measure is smart in the face of uncertainty]

      This may be true in the short term, but sustained quarantines will eventually, CERTAINLY, result in a humanitarian disaster of a different kind.

      • Norman says:

        Snape

        It is true that this Global Lock-Down needs to gradually make way to an active thriving economy again and soon. The experts say what is necessary for this. I am not sure why our Nation is behind and continues not to even attempt to lead. We need more active and extensive testing to allow the non infected to normal behavior and the sick to remain isolated until the virus is no longer present. It does work, South Korea is one example.

        You like Worldometer. Look at the ratio of testing per million of US vs other Nations. We are lagging. There is not reason to destroy the economic engine and no reason to allow people to die a miserable death. There are solutions. I am not sure why they are not being enacted. Trump claims we have enough tests. Then why are not more tests being done?

        • Gordon Robertson says:

          norman…”The experts say what is necessary for this”.

          The experts have not been consulted and the few that have disagree with the actions taken.

          What we have is the untested opinions of candy asses who make a career in government institutions by kissing butt. They blindly follow paradigms established so long ago they have become unscientific. Either that or they are following computer models which they arrogantly programmed using their candy assed views on science.

          In other words, we are being lead by the Neville Chaberlains of the medical community, a load of sheeples.

  115. Snape says:

    Hi Norman

    Yes, testing seems to be the way out of this mess. It will allow us to target those who need to stay home, letting everyone else get back to their normal lives.

    Steve Mosher described what South Korea has been doing:

    1. Testing.
    A) if you feel ill, you call a central number and arrange for drive through testing. results in 6 hours. Free
    B) if you are worried, you can just show up at the drive through and pay 140 bucks.
    C) no going into a doctors office or hospital for testing. duh. China had something similar called fever clinics.
    D) when you fly in you will be tested and quarantined. Home quarantine is allowed. you will be
    called thrice daily to report. if you have a fever at the airport, you are admitted to a health center.

    2. Tracing. Every case is tracked. Overall 83 percent of cases are tracked back to a known source or index
    patient. Recently the average is up to 95%.
    A) If you get sick, your whole church will be tested, your family and your contacts. All tested.
    B) if grandma in the nursing home gets sick, all residents, all staff , all family member, all visitors.
    C) if your co worker gets sick, the whole business will be tested, and a good number of people
    that share your building. All your contacts will be tested, all your family will be tested.
    D) if a patient in a hospital gets sick, all staff, all patients, all family, all visitors, tested
    E) your cell phone data will be grabbed. to get a phone number you need an national ID.
    to get mail you need a national ID, to go on the internet you need a national ID. So,
    your location data will be grabbed and used and published

    3. Searching out the invisible enemy
    A) starting in daeugu all nursing homes are tested
    B) all mental institutions are tested
    C) organizations like churches can all be tested.

  116. Adelaida says:

    “Last week, the president of EE. The US, Donald Trump, announced that the country had already carried out more than a million tests to detect the coronavirus (COVID-19), a figure that would exceed that of any other country in the world. Unfortunately, mass testing, which is the measure the World Health Organization (WHO) is most insisting on to contain the pandemic, is proving terribly slow. The approach advocated by WHO is to identify and isolate those infected, as well as people at risk. In addition, the information from massive tests would also allow predicting the communities and areas most at risk of an outbreak to improve the allocation of resources and anticipate the peak of hospital admissions.

    From MIT Technology Review we have been reporting the urgency of checking who has already been infected for several weeks, since it is possible that these people have developed some type of immunity to the virus. Since the outbreak began, many different groups have intensified their efforts to develop a serological test that looks for antibodies against COVID-19. Its presence in the body would indicate that a person has already been infected. If a test like this manages to reach society, it could radically change our way of deciding who can leave the house and return to something similar to a normal life”
    https://www.technologyreview.es/s/12077/respondemos-las-siete-preguntas-clave-sobre-los-test-serologicos

    • Bindidon says:

      Adelaida

      ” Last week, … Donald Trump … announced that the country had already carried out more than a million tests to detect the coronavirus (COVID-19), a figure that would exceed that of any other country in the world. ”

      Don’t allow people like Trump to manipulate you!

      Yes, the US performed until now (Apr 21 10:30 GMT+2) 4,027,367 tests, and are on top of the test list, ahead of Russia with 2,142,604 and Germany with 1,728,357 tests.

      But… this information means nothing, Adelaida.

      Relevant is for each country the number of tests in relation to the country’s population.

      And here we see, among the 10 countries showing the most infections up to date, a list of tests per million people:

      1. Italy: 23,122
      2. Germany: 20,629
      3. Spain: 19,896
      4. Russia: 14,682
      5. USA: 12,167
      6. Turkey: 7,991
      7. UK: 7,386
      8. France: 7,103

      This, Adelaida, is the truth.

      And the truth tells us that the number of tests relative to the country’s population does not explain everything… otherwise, Italy and Spain would not have had so many deaths.

      Tests are only one factor among many!

      Rgds from Germoney
      J.-P. D.

  117. Snape says:

    [And the truth tells us that the number of tests relative to the countrys population does not explain everything]

    Very true. The idea is to start early and ramp up testing BEFORE the virus has become widespread. Looking at testing numbers as of Mid April does not tell us the whole truth:

    [South Koreas swift action stands in stark contrast to what has transpired in the United States. Seven weeks after the train station meeting, the Koreans have tested well over 290,000 people and identified over 8,000 infections. New cases are falling off: Ninety-three were reported Wednesday, down from a daily peak of 909 two weeks earlier.

    The United States, whose first case was detected the same day as South Koreas, is not even close to meeting demand for testing. About 60,000 tests have been run by public and private labs in a country of 330 million, federal officials said Tuesday.]

    https://mobile.reuters.com/article/amp/idUSKBN2153BW

  118. Snape says:

    It might turn out that wearing face masks is the real key, even more effective than testing:

    https://www.newsweek.com/texas-cities-mandate-wearing-face-masks-public-state-gears-reopen-1499214?amp=1

    In cities like Hong Kong, Tokyo, Seoul and Beijing, people were wearing face coverings back in JANUARY.

  119. Snape says:

    Asia may have been right about coronavirus and face masks, and the rest of the world is coming around……..

    https://tinyurl.com/y747u7gm

  120. Snape says:

    The experts may have given us some very bad advice:

    [Of the many preventative measures you can take to protect yourself from the new coronavirus, wearing a face mask is one of the most visible. But for members of the general public, health experts don’t think it’ll help much.

    “There’s little harm in it,” Eric Toner, a scientist at Johns Hopkins Center for Health Security, told Business Insider. “But it’s not likely to be very effective in preventing it.”]

    https://www.businessinsider.com/wuhan-coronavirus-face-masks-not-entirely-effective-2020-1

    *******

    Notice the photo in the article – a train station in Hong Kong, January 23, where everyone is wearing a face mask.

    New cases in Hong Kong today: 4
    New deaths: 0

    Anecdotal, I know, but something to consider.

  121. Snape says:

    Japan is a nation with an aging population, heavy smokers, crowded streets and trains – yet has done very well with regard to COVID19. What is their secret?

    https://www.bbc.com/news/world-52015486

  122. Snape says:

    [At the weekend, a group of more than 100 UK doctors wrote an open letter to The Times saying they were “alarmed at official inaction over the need for the public to wear homemade face masks”, which could be made by volunteer groups.

    They said it was “illogical” to advise people to wear masks if they are showing symptoms, but not if they appear symptom-free.]

    https://www.bbc.com/news/health-51205344

  123. Adelaida says:

    Bindidon

    You forget Portugal with more than 26,672 tests per million inhabitants MADE FROM THE BEGINNING … That is the key!
    And a mortality with respect to the total population of the country similar to that of Germany.

    Why? … They acted correctly doing EARLY TESTS from almost the first infected. They isolated the infected and almost immediately closed universities, colleges, and began confinement.

    Its President Sousa is an example of a leader who has done well, as in Germany.

    I agree with Snape that the masks are important to everyone and it has been a serious mistake on the part of the OMS to discourage them!

    On the contrary, it should have been encouraged and, since they are scarce, the OMS itself should have devised masks with homemade materials of different types and as effective as possible, so that everyone in their confinement could build one.

  124. Bindidon says:

    For the geniuses ignoring what is understood under a ‘pandemic’:

    https://tinyurl.com/ybb3nay2

    And if they need a comparison with other viruses, e.g. the flu:

    https://tinyurl.com/y7m9tuee

    J.-P. D.

    • Gordon Robertson says:

      binny…”For comparison, the case fatality rate with seasonal flu in the United States is less than 0.1% (1 death per every 1,000 cases).

      Mortality rate for SARS was 10%, and for MERS 34%”.

      ***********

      That’s bs of the highest order. The claimed death toll in the US is 40,000. I think that figure is totally fudged since it jumped from 500 deaths to 43,000 in under two weeks. The 40,000 deaths represents about 0.012% of the US population.

      If SARS caused a fatality rate of 10%, 32,000,000 US citizens would have died. The fatality rate for seasonal flu quoted above, 0.1%, is much higher than deaths from covid19.

      BTW, only 44 people died in Canada from SARS, 43 being all in one location. There are 36 million people in Canada meaning the deaths from SARS was 0.00012%. The flu killed far more people in Canada.

      We are currently dealing with scientists who specialize in statistical bs and who do their math poorly.

      • Nate says:

        “I think that figure is totally fudged”

        We will file your opinion where it belongs.

      • Bindidon says:

        Robertson

        One more time, you prove us all how ignorant, arrogant and pretentious you are.

        SARS (and especially MERS) had nearly no influence outside of their very local area.

        That, Robertson, is the great difference between SARS and MERS on the one hand, and SARS-COV-2 on the other hand. As opposed to the two former ones, SARS-COV-2 is present in 210 countries and territories.

        You are simply too dumb to understand it…

        We are here, at Roy Spencer’s blog, all the time dealing with an antiscientist nicknamed ‘Gordon Robertson’, who permanently specializes in absolute BS, let alone would he be able to do any kind of math.

  125. Snape says:

    [But at least you can compare Portugal with Italy (I made a snapshot of the graph displayed by the site):

    https://drive.google.com/file/d/1MnM3gXGRjbbaNHNzBQqg_LZfU_CyW_o7/view%5D

    ********
    Careful, Bin. Italy was having a problem several weeks before Portugal, which is why they began testing sooner. This does NOT mean that Italy got off to a better start. Quite the opposite.

    For example, on 3/17/20, Italy conducted about 0.2 tests per 1000 people.
    At the time, there had already been 2,503 deaths.

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2020_coronavirus_pandemic_in_Italy

    ******

    Compare that to Portugal, who just four days later, on 3/21/20, also conducted about 0.2 tests per 1000 people.

    Only 12 deaths had been reported by that date.

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2020_coronavirus_pandemic_in_Portugal

  126. Adelaida says:

    Bravo Snape!!!!

    • Bindidon says:

      Adelaida

      Snape manifestly did not understand my comment concerning Portugal’s distance to Spain – geographically so hard to explain, but historically so evident.

      If the border between Portugal and Spain was like that between Italy and Switzerland, or between France and Germany, then we would have quite different COVID-19 numbers in Portugal – tests or not.

      Smart wiki numbers don’t help much here, especially if you look at the countries with the wrong side of the telescope.

      Te deseo todo lo mejor
      J.-P. D.

  127. Gordon Robertson says:

    snape…”testing seems to be the way out of this mess”.

    Could you expand on what you think this testing does? It does not test for a virus, like HIV, it tests for antibodies or for RNA in an infected person which is INFERRED to be from a virus.

    This is pseudo-science of the highest order. I have been asking one simple question and it remains unanswered. If they have a virus called covid19, why can they not isolate it, purify it, photograph it, and test it’s RNA directly? When they have the RNA of the actual virus they can create tests to test for the virus directly.

    They don’t do that. They are collecting RNA specimen’s from an infected person, while presuming the RNA has come from a virus. This is a DUH!!! moment, since a virus contains RNA, therefore RNA found in an infected person must mean the RNA came from a virus.

    Well, DUH!!!…no!!!! There is no scientific logic in that statement. They have a perfectly good method for isolating a virus, why have they not used it? I have been studying the so-called science around this theory the past couple of decades and the current methodology stems from the HIV/AIDS viral theory. It was wrong and this theory, being based on it, is likely to be wrong as well.

    I am not denying there is not a serious contagion out there affecting very small portions of the population of different countries. It may be caused by a virus but it may also be a multi-factorial, multi-locale problem that we will never learn about unless we stop the myopia and open our eyes and minds.

    That’s all I am saying. If we have a virus out there, identify it properly using standard methods, take it’s RNA, and create a test based on the genome of the virus. They have done everything but. They are using the PCR method for DNA amplification to amplify DNA after it is converted from RNA. They are still not testing for a virus, they are shining ultraviolet light on the DNA until it shines. At the point where it shines they stop the PCR amplification and measure the amount of RNA in a person against a predetermined scale. Who set the standard?

    Well, this is about as stupid as anyone can get. Each cell in the body has DNA and there are billions of cells. RNA interacts with the DNA all the time to create proteins. RNA is involved in many processes, maybe thousands, and finding more in an infected person may be the result of a virus but it can be due to cell death and many other origins.

    Using such a method a person can be positive, then negative, then positive, then negative. It’s damnable science because none of it meets the requirements of the scientific method.

    Neither does the nonsense about social distancing and wearing masks. The only effective mask against a virus is the N95 and it is only 90% effective. Surgical masks, cloth masks, and other facial coverings are absolutely useless against a virus.

    Social distancing has no science to verify it. It has never been tested with a control group. To verify it, a study would need a significant sized group to carry on normally to see how many deaths occurred with respect to another group who observed social distancing pseudo-science.

    • Norman says:

      Gordon Robertson

      I can see that the Truth is not your friend. Your false Contrarian Religion matters more to you than the Truth so you continue with your misleading dishonest posts.

      Not only do you lack any physics knowledge on any topic in that field it seems you also don’t have a clue about what DNA or RNA is and does. I guess you don’t know why a tree and person are different. Both have DNA that makes proteins that produce their cells. All living things have DNA or RNA.

      The sequence is what determines the outcome of a given organism.

      As dishonest as you seem to be and lover of lies and misleading people, it is unlikely you will read this link. It explains clearly what you are not willing to understand (this would be the Truth which goes against your belief of lies). They give the methods of determining viruses. The pro and con.

      TEM is a good method but very slow. That is why the other methods (that are valid) are used.

      https://www.labome.com/method/Virus-Identification-and-Quantification.html

      I guess back to your lies it is how you like it.

      • Gordon Robertson says:

        Norman…it would be helpful if you could get past your ad hom/insult fetish and get to the scientific point. There is no scientific point in what you have written above other than your usual suppositions and idiotic statements.

        The article to which you have linked says nothing about the means of isolating a virus. In fact, they refer you to the “Manual of clinical microbiology. 8th ed”.

        I get my info from Stefan Lanka, who isolated and purified the first virus from the ocean. He claims most viruses we know have not been isolated and purified. He claims photos of them are photos of the cell mass in which the virus is found.

        There is a claim by a Scottish researcher, Almeida to have discovered the first coronavirus decades ago. When she submitted a paper with an alleged photo of the virus, her paper was rejected on the grounds that the photo could have been a photo of any viral particles.

        Here a description of viral isolation and purification by an expert:

        http://www.theperthgroup.com/INTERVIEWS/cjepe.html

        Another one on antibodies, which some modern virologists claim can be related to a virus.

        http://www.theperthgroup.com/INTERVIEWS/hcvft.html

        The point is, the article to which you linked claims to know the genome of a virus yet they mention nothing about isolating the virus properly. I think pseudo-science has become the norm in science these days. Once a bad paradigm is established it hangs around like a bad smell.

        • Norman says:

          Gordon Robertson

          It seems your Authority figure is a phony and a fraud. Here is one case of his dishonest behavior.

          https://www.latimes.com/business/hiltzik/la-fi-mh-a-vaccine-denier-20150320-column.html

          His behavior is based upon the desire for fame, to be someone. Most people working in the field are not known. This is what activates the Contrarians. They want some type of fame and by going against the established scientists opinion and appealing to people like you that really don’t know much about anything or unwilling to look deeply into anything.

          Again you will take the opinions of a handful of Contrarians over thousands of experts in the field that disagree and provide much evidence against the Contrarians.

          https://www.aidstruth.org/who-the-denialists-are/

          This link covers you contrarians you believe blindly. The long interview you linked to as an expert has zero qualifications making her as dishonest as you are.

          I think the Contrarian view has validity as keeping the mind open to other ideas but I find the Contrarian Religion is based upon lies, deceit, dishonesty and intentionally misleading people. You are a follower of this false Religion. You accept any Contrarian opinion and believe it blindly and then peddle it as it you are an expert in the field. You are destroying the value of Contrarian thought. A view to keep the mind open and investigative not something to be used blindly like a religion.

          You are proven again to be a false and dishonest liar. You hate the Truth but love the lie. If someone is a contrarian you will believe them and peddle the lie regardless. You hate the Truth and are an enemy of science process.

          • the RealPlastic says:

            Norman,

            People like GR are hugely frustrating because they speak with contemptuous confidence on topics of which they are not in the least knowledgeable. They quote “experts” who were never involved with the fields of science they claim to understand. They laud dinosaur rejects, and discredit anyone with current and well-versed knowledge.

            They give a bad name to the word “skepticism” because they do not have an appreciation of what it takes to understand or integrate an alternate view. They are obdurate, based on hurt feelings and pride, not a love of truth.

            They repeat themselves because it is their security blanket, a rebellious cloak to hold around their shoulders when they otherwise can’t explain why no one agrees with them, why nothing they say makes sense, why they can’t modify or compromise their views based on relevant, superior knowledge. It’s just too much for them. And they fight, fight, fight.

            “If you can’t dazzle them with brilliance, blind em with bullshit.” That is why GR and his kind are here, they need to put up a fight so they don’t feel irrelevant.

            They indeed love the lie.

          • Norman says:

            the RealPlastic

            Thanks for the thoughtful analysis of Gordon Robertson. Yes he gives a bad name to skeptics. He is dishonest and lies almost continuously and he does not seem to care.

            He is the same one that does not understand the Inverse Square Law. He thinks that in a few meters all the energy from the Earth’s surface has dissipated via his horrible understanding of the Inverse Square Law. He justifies his ignorance by claiming his fingers don’t burn when just a little away from a hot stove plate. I spent some time trying to correct his false belief. After a time I find he is a totally dishonest person who lies with intent and purpose. It is one thing to get ideas wrong and people correct them, no so with Robertson. He lies and will continue to do it. I have not found out why this behavior appeals to him.

        • theRealPlastic says:

          Speaking of bad smells.

    • Nate says:

      hear not ‘here’

    • Bindidon says:

      Nate

      I think that we rather should expect such a reaction from Peter Morcombe aka gallopingcamel, who insulted me some weeks ago because I wrote about the doubts of eminent French virologists concerning Didier Raoult’s endless pushing on the use of a a supposedly magical hydrochloroquine + azythromycin mix for COVID-19 treatment.

      French president Macron praised him last week as a genius, but… still no really valuable results.

      Even remdesivir would work better.

      Inbetween, a German firm obtained approbation for starting official tests of a fourfold COVID-19 vaccine development stream. In that we should trust a bit more.

      Rgds
      J.-P. D.

  128. Snape says:

    Gordon,

    There are researchers at UBC who would be fascinated by your ideas. Maybe you could arrange a visit?

    https://psychotherapy.ubc.ca/

    • Gordon Robertson says:

      snape…”There are researchers at UBC who would be fascinated by your ideas. Maybe you could arrange a visit?”

      I studied engineering at UBC and had my red jacket with ‘Engineers – UBC’ on the back. We had nothing but contempt for psych student, we threw them in the library pond every chance we got. If you want to drop by UBC, I’d be glad to arrange to have you thrown in….with or without a free tour of the campus

      I studied psych as a minor for 4 years, probably one of the only engineers who did. I recognize you from my courses in abnormal behaviour so please refrain from trying to reverse the situation.

      • theRealPlastic says:

        “I studied engineering at UBC…”

        Oh my god, you fucking liar! Nothing about your arguments, ever, indicates you studied anything rigorously. “Studying”, by the way, is not “able to find content that supports my opinions.” GR, if one thing is apparent from your posts, it is that you HAVE NO IDEA what constitutes dedicated, scrupulous, respectable “study.” What degree did you complete ever?

        “…had my red jacket with ‘Engineers – UBC’ on the back”

        You mean the jacket you have to BUY? They are not given out…and only the flunking-out or hangers-on feel the need to purchase? This is like someone boasting about “being in Mensa.”
        You say “I studied” but you do not indicate you finished. I feel this is an important fact in understanding the contempt you feel for “candy asses” and “ignoramuses” who actually have knowledge that bears weight.

        You are an unemployed or at least retired malcontent technician at best, and don’t deny it. You write like someone too old to want to change now, and too stubborn to be humble. Stop lying and denigrating on this site all the time. Why is your ego so invested in your stupid, hateful arguments???

        • nurse ratchet says:

          You are spot on. GR has been under our care for many years now. He has no qualifications and only learns from the comic books we allow him. Sometimes he watches FOX News if the TV is switched on in the common room. He does have some technical skills – we allow him to replace the washers on the taps. He does have the label “UBC” on the back of his strait jacket – it refers to “Underperforming Brain Cells”.

        • Gordon Robertson says:

          plastic,…”Nothing about your arguments, ever, indicates you studied anything rigorously”.

          The measure of a dimwit is the degree to which he uses ad homs and insults. That makes you a super dimwit.

  129. Bindidon says:

    Worldometers is pretty good, but if you want to have a worldwide look at basic COVID-19 case & death toll data since the countries’ first reporting:

    https://tinyurl.com/rewn6ny

    J.-P. D.

  130. Bindidon says:

    One week has passed; time again to show how Arctic sea ice extent develops this year:

    https://drive.google.com/file/d/19I6WWxw-xavC0H7K7tS_Ocef8BE2gzcs/view

    J.-P. D.

  131. Snape says:

    @Adalaida

    Here you replied to an earlier comment:

    [Snape,
    Health systems are collapsed !!! Field hospitals, medicalized hotels are being enabled to care for the most seriously affected by covid-19, doctors and health workers, they are left without protective equipment and no one knows where to bury so many dead people suddenly !!. ..
    1 MONTH 20,000 dead!
    1 MONTH 500,000 confirmed infected!

    It is a range unmatched by any other common cause of death you can look for!
    Cost-benefit perspective ???]

    ********

    What did you suppose I was talking about regarding the costs of continued quarantines and lockdowns??

    Here are some examples – and they are horrific:

    https://amp.cnn.com/cnn/2020/04/22/africa/coronavirus-famine-un-warning-intl/index.html

  132. Bindidon says:

    France is, like US, Italy, Spain, UK, Belgium etc, target of a hard COVID-19 attack.

    Lockdown decisions are highly contested, especially by people who have no idea what would have happened if the lockdown had not been installed.

    I suspect all these people to live far far away from any Coronavirus danger, and who do not even imagine what happened in hospitals during the last 8 weeks.

    Here is a paper (written in English) explaining the effect of the lockdown installed in France:

    https://www.ea-reperes.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/04/ImpactConfinement-EHESP-20200322v1.pdf

    A lockdown which will be, like that in Germany, weakened in the nearest future, but will get reinstalled as soon as the epidemic context grows again.

    J.-P. D.

  133. Snape says:

    Norman

    The author of the article you linked thinks we could avoid quarantines AND stay safe if everybody wore a mask:

    [Want to defend freedom and beat the virus? Wear a mask when in public areas such as public transportation, retail stores or workplaces. Thats how we beat the virus and restore freedom in America]

    *****

    In Oregon, where I live, just about everything is shut down except stores, which are full of people….. the majority of which have no face coverings. Where is the logic?

    *****

    [If we open up we could get massive deaths in third world Nations from this disease.]

    If we do not open up soon, then third world nations will almost certainly face famine and disease (exasperated by malnutrition).

    Those countries tend to have very young populations, and this virus tends to spare the young.

    Consider Italy:
    ages 0 – 69 represent just 17% of the deaths from COVID-19. And as of April 22, a total of just 9 deaths among people younger than 30.

    In India, 1/2 the population is less than 27 years old.

    ******

    My mother is 86 and has a bad heart. This requires a different game plan than for instance my 14 year old daughter.

    She never leaves her property and does not allow visitors. I leave a bag of groceries on her porch every few days. She is equally safe whether the rest of society is in quarantine or not.

  134. Snape says:

    The age group 0 – 20 represents 1/2 the population of Africa.

  135. Snape says:

    exacerbated, not exasperated

  136. Nate says:

    I hope we can all come together and agree to stop taking medical advice from unqualified people who promote untested or completely nutty treatments:

    https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/donald-trump/lysol-manufacturer-warns-against-internal-use-after-trump-comments-n1191586

    • Bindidon says:

      Nate

      You got ahead of me with your comment.

      But if the German TV news were right, the Trumpie boy said it shouldn’t be taken seriously, it was just … sarcasm.

      And there are really millions of US people convinced he is the best PotUS evah.

      What a terrifying country…

      Liberate the US!

      J.-P. D.

  137. Gabe says:

    Roy,

    The latest number on the fluview website are really out of whack. It looks like the number of weekly deaths dropped by almost 1/2 from Week 15 to Week 16. This doesn’t make any sense.

    Your earlier discussion was very helpful and gives context on the weekly number revisions. It looks like numbers get steadily revised upwards as more data becomes available. However, this is out of scale and follows 3 weeks with overall deaths higher than average. Those 3 weeks coincided with the spike in P&I mortality.

    Anyway, I’d appreciate any insight you might have.

    Thanks
    Gabe

  138. Snape says:

    Norman

    Interesting article. I mostly agree, except with a couple of caveats:

    – everyone needs to wear a mask in public places (bad news for restaurants and bars).

    – high risk groups, including all senior citizens, should continue to self-isolate from the rest of the population.

    • Gordon Robertson says:

      snape…” everyone needs to wear a mask in public places (bad news for restaurants and bars).

      high risk groups, including all senior citizens, should continue to self-isolate from the rest of the population”.

      *****

      Any mask except the N95 is useless against a virus and the N95 is only 90% effective. A virus has a diameter of around 100 nanometers and will go right through cloth masks including surgical masks.

      Senior who keep active by exercising and eating well should have nothing to fear. It is only the frail and weak seniors who will have issues.

      https://www.cidrap.umn.edu/news-perspective/2020/04/commentary-masks-all-covid-19-not-based-sound-data

  139. Snape says:

    But I agree 100% with this –

    [It is a tough time for all and could get much worse. It is difficult to make the right choice.]

  140. Adelaida says:

    I can send you the new video of an internist based on the experience and data in his hospital (in Spanish without subtitles) …

    https://youtu.be/sPeuEwKkYYU

    The video says, in short, that with boluses of corticosteroids … and simple measures, without the need for assisted breathing, super elderly people (some almost 90 years old) are being saved, but nevertheless healthy young people also continue to fall, it evolves badly, it has to be in the ICU, they die and they still don’t know why!

    … Nor is much known about immunity, … the percentage of immunized after passing it as Normando’s video says, is low 4% ….. and How long does it last?

    This doctor calls for extreme precautions and to try to be as isolated as possible until the disease is better known.
    Why, although it is true that treatment is progressing week by week and today people who died two weeks ago are saved, they still do not understand those cases of young or not so young, strong people who die … and any of we can touch us …

    So the Spanish doctor asks for the maximum individual precaution until September, because surely at that time the doctors will have completely controlled the management of the disease, and that no one runs to catch it to get immunity!

    I believe, but it is only my opinion, that with the efforts that are being dedicated to the vaccine or vaccines … the planet’s immunity can be achieved, and I sincerely hope that there is a worldwide will for the vaccination of all the inhabitants of the earth without distinction ……

    Thank God that children and adolescents are not affected, or very little, by this coronavirus, as Snape says. But if they are carriers that infect the elderly …

    The masks and isolation of older people that Snape says seem fundamental to me! …

    And of course economic activity will have to recover, but with fundamental and strict measures of distance and protection that will surely stop contagion ….

    And the more progress is made in the knowledge of this virus and the disease, the better preventive measures will be.

    I don’t know who can doubt the virulence of this virus anymore, the truth …

    I hope Snape and your family, and all of you and your family members are doing well! And I wish you the best of long-term health !!!

    • Bindidon says:

      Adelaida

      ” I believe, but it is only my opinion, that with the efforts that are being dedicated to the vaccine or vaccines the planets immunity can be achieved… ”

      Sorry: there will be no immunity against SARS-COV-2, just like there is none against any virus.

      Because otherwise no one would die due to the seasonal flu.

      What will be achieved it that SARS-COV-2 will, due to the vaccines, stop filling the hospitals like did 100 years ago the so-called “Spanish” flu.

      Rgds
      J.-P. D.

      • Gordon Robertson says:

        binny…”What will be achieved it that SARS-COV-2 will, due to the vaccines, stop filling the hospitals like did 100 years ago the so-called Spanish flu”.

        The Spanish flu coincided with the end of a particularly brutal war (WWI) when people were in seriously bad shape in Europe. From Wiki:

        “…. malnourishment, overcrowded medical camps and hospitals, and poor hygiene promoted bacterial superinfection”.

        Some idiots in the medical fraternity have been expecting this to happen again and have jumped all over this current contagion with hysteria and propaganda.

  141. Adelaida says:

    https://elpais.com/elpais/2020/04/22/planeta_futuro/1587547394_050504.html
    “The pandemic will be overcome from a health point of view, science has enormous capabilities and will end up developing treatment and vaccines, but we will forget those who suffer their pandemics every day and who do not affect us … The virus is relatively simple, I mean, of course it is easier to make vaccines for viruses than for bacteria or parasites. Then there will be the risk that it will mutate or not, but I doubt it. The most complicated thing is going to be that the vaccine reaches those who most they need and that there is no stockpiling in rich countries and that those who cannot pay for it are unlucky …OMS is going to watch that this does not happen.

    And what tools does OMS have to avoid it?

    OMS has moral but not financial or coercive power. But that moral power can move mountains and there are several examples of this. I think we are at a point where it would all take a lot of effort to imagine that a vaccine could be developed but that we could not give it to every human being who needs it regardless of where they are. OMS will take a very active role in ensuring that we do not slide down that slope. ”

    The article talks about malaria too and is interesting.

    • Gordon Robertson says:

      adelaida…”The pandemic will be overcome from a health point of view…”

      What pandemic? Here in Canada, in the Vancouver area, we’ve had less than 100 deaths and a little over 100 hospitalized. Across Canada, the number of deaths is 0.003%.

      You can call the situation in Italy in the north only as an epidemic but even at that the number of deaths is 0.13% in Lombardy with a population of 10 million.

      The media and others seem to be ignoring the fact that Italy had as many deaths from the common flu in the 2016/17 season as they have had from covid. The difference was only in location. The current one is localized to a small area in the north and it is severely taxing the health care system. The 2016/17 epidemic did not and no one heard about it.

  142. Snape says:

    Adelaide –

    Thanks
    I hope you and your family are doing well too.
    Same for all the regulars at Roys blog.

  143. Bindidon says:

    The basic principle of the stupid commentators is to always write what seems right in their own world, even more so when it is absolutely wrong.

    So no one wonders that they deliberately confuse things, such as
    – the death rate per million of people;
    – the case mortality rate (deaths / cases ratio).

    The case mortality rate for the seasonal flu in the US is about 0.1 %; that of SARS-COV-2 in the US is currently about 5.6 %.

    J.-P. D.

    • Stephen Paul Anderson says:

      You have absolutely no way of knowing that.

      • Bindidon says:

        Anderson

        Worldometers for April 25 2020

        USA
        Total cases: 960,651
        Total deaths: 54,256

        But maybe you are ignorant up to a point where you discard any information which does not fit into your own narrative.

        I can’t show you the link, it is rejected by the blog’s scanner.

        I don’t care about people like you, Anderson.

        J.-P. D.

      • Gordon Robertson says:

        binny…”The case mortality rate for the seasonal flu in the US is about 0.1 %; that of SARS-COV-2 in the US is currently about 5.6 %.”

        You are quick to ad hom others when you cannot even do basic math. The US currently claims about 50,000 deaths from covid19 and that number is being seriously questioned by medical personnel in the field. The head of the coroner’s society in Pennsylvania has claimed frustration over being unable to match bodies to the death count in his state.

        Even at that, the US population is about 320 million, 50,000 deaths represents 50,000/320,000,000 = 0.00015652. Multiply by 100 to get the percent = 0.016%. Where you got 5.6% is beyond me. Perhaps your Excel spreadsheet has been infected by covid. According to your percentage there are less than a million people in the US.

        To make matters worse, if someone dies of cancer and is not positive, and that person had a family member tested positive for covid, that death is marked as covid-related. A couple of weeks ago the US death rate was 500, now it is 50,000. The bean-counters have gotten carried away with their hysteria, panic, and propaganda.

  144. Bindidon says:

    Despite a very low population density (3.8 inhabs / km2), Canada currently belongs to the top 12 countries affected by SARS-COV-2.

    For April, 25:
    – 45,354 cases
    – 2,465 deaths

    That gives a case mortality rate of 5.4 %, i.e. nearly the same as for the US.

    Comparison with Germany:
    – 156,113 cases
    – 5,877 deaths

    Case mortality rate: 3.8 %

    Spain: 10.2 %, Italy: 13.5 %; and… Sweden, the glorious ‘no lockdown’ country: 12.1 % !!!

    Of course: it won’t take much time until some ignorant will tell us that all these deaths are due to something else.

    J.-P. D.

    • Stephen Paul Anderson says:

      Stop spewing your BS.

      • Stephen Paul Anderson says:

        We have 68 cases in my county and no hospitalizations and zero deaths. What is the mortality rate?

        • Bindidon says:

          Anderson

          If there is one person spewing lots and lots of BS here right now, then that’s you.

          No wonder: the difference between people like you and the guy nicknamed ‘Gordon Robertson’ is infinitesimal.

          One must really be completely, thoroughly brainless to compare a county and a country.

          J.-P. D.

      • Bindidon says:

        Nate

        1. I understand what these ‘Atlantic’ people mean.
        But… they are simply wrong.

        They don’t know how Germany works: it is, like the US, a federal state. With the difference, however, that the central government can’t decide for everything when there is need to do in extreme situations.

        Especially in the context of health, the 16 federal units can decide about many things.

        Thus, what Germany does against a virus pandemic is not due to a single person with a PhD in physics: that is the result of lengthy, complicated negotiations between the central government and the federal units.

        2. The main reason for Germany doing better than the US is that the health care system
        – is much stronger than elsewhere, and
        – has not been destroyed in the recent decades by senseless savings initiated by consecutive governments, as you can see especially in the UK.

        J.-P. D.

    • Svante says:

      Bindidon says:

      Spain: 10.2 %, Italy: 13.5 %; and Sweden, the glorious “no lockdown” country: 12.1 % !!!

      Different countries report differently. For comparison, reported covid-19 fatalities as fraction of excess mortality:
      – NYC: 98%.
      – France: 78%.
      – Sweden: 71%.
      – England and Wales: 68%.
      – Spain: 65%.
      – Austria: 57%.
      – Belgium: 50%.
      – Lombardy: 48%.
      – Netherlands: 44%.
      https://tinyurl.com/ycle9t8x

      • Bindidon says:

        Svante

        A very well documented article, and an interesting death toll comparison.

        Thanks for linking,
        J.-P. D.

        • Svante says:

          Yes, homogenization and data adjustments are needed.
          The numbers will be revised upward.
          Will Gordon and Eben agree?

  145. Adelaida says:

    Hello Bindidon!

    I thought that the direction of the fight against the coronavirus had been centralized in Germany …

    “Angela Merkel plans to withdraw powers from the federal states to centralize the fight for the coronavirus”

    https://amp-elmundo-es.cdn.ampproject.org/v/s/amp.elmundo.es/internacional/2020/03/21/5e7637a021efa0c2038b45de.html?amp_js_v=a3&amp_gsa=1&usqp=mq331AQFKAGwASA%3D 15879742620724 & referrer = https% 3A% 2F% 2Fwww.google.com & amp_tf = De% 20% 251% 24s & ampshare = https% 3A% 2F% 2Fwww.elmundo.es% 2Finternacional% 2F2020% 2F03% 2F21% 2F5e7637a021efadec2038

    And I understood that Germany had already foreseen a pandemic in 2012 and produced a report that served as a model or template:

    “Germany produced in 2012 a simulation of the pandemic that has served as a template

    The report, commissioned eight years ago by Parliament from the Robert Koch Institute, allowed the Merkel government to act quickly ”

    https://www-abc-es.cdn.ampproject.org/v/s/www.abc.es/internacional/abci-alemania-elaboro-2012-simulacro-pandemia-servido-plantilla-202004190223_noticia_amp.html?amp_js_v= a3 & amp_gsa = 1 & usqp = mq331AQFKAGwASA% 3D # aoh = 15879745117930 & amp_ct = 1587974624282 & referrer = https% 3A% 2F% 2Fwww.google.com & amp_tf = De% 20% 251% 24s & ampshare = https% 3A% 2F% 2A% F germany-elaborate-2012-simulation-pandemic-served-template-202004190223_news.html

  146. Adelaida says:

    You know it for sure, but just in case:

    By copying the link and pasting it into google, google translates it

    Good morning to everybody!!
    Enviar

    • Bindidon says:

      Adelaida

      As you can easily see, the links were not correctly represented by the blog’s software.

      The best is to tinyURL them using
      https://tinyurl.com/

      and to publish the short link instead.

      I often use it, especially to publish links containing character sequences rejected by the blog:

      https://tinyurl.com/y62sq3xo

      What now concerns things like:

      Angela Merkel plans to withdraw powers from the federal states to centralize the fight for the coronavirus…

      that is pure ABS imagination.

      The 2012 info is correct, however.

      Rgds
      J.-P. D.

  147. Norman says:

    I wish the US would have followed the South Korean model rather than the European model on containing Covid-19.

    It seems to work quite well in the real world and it does not seem nearly as bad as the lockdown, destroy the economy method and greatly restrict freedom of motion. Mostly non intrusive tracking and isolated quarantine of infected people. The medical experts are saying we need to follow the South Korean model to open up but for unknown reasons we will not do it. The US still does not have enough tests available and no actual process of doing valid effective tracing. Why? I might reconsider Trump if in his briefs he would not spend time on idiot cures just do what actually works. Have a reliable labs churn out multiple tests and start isolating those who are infected. Then do real tracing of where the infected person was and who they came in contact with. That is so far a real solution that works. Also South Korea found out you give your Health Care Workers proper PPE as that is one way to spread an infectious disease. They get it and spread it around. Without good PPE they are the most likely spreaders as they are in direct contact with infected people. Why are they still claiming they don’t have the right PPE? Why is this such an issue to get them what they need. Is the US a leader in anything? Are they so divided politically they can’t even do this simple task? Good lord what happened to a Nation that could get people on the Moon and bring them back safely?

    https://theconversation.com/how-south-korea-flattened-the-coronavirus-curve-with-technology-136202

    The only value Trump would have as the President with Presidential Power is to implement what South Korea has done and is doing. Get PPE for Health Care Workers, get way more good quality tests, and isolate the sick. It works it needs to be done. Someone put the word in Trump’s ear and things may get better soon. Stop the politics and get to work!

    • Nate says:

      That sounds right, Norman.

      • Norman says:

        Nate

        Thanks. My post was garbled and poorly written but I think you at least understood the point. The political polarization of the USA paralyzes he Nation to respond to any crisis.

        Each side wants the other to fail and to blame rather than come together and get things done.

        All Governors work with each other (Democrat and Republican) and the President and Congress to get PPE for all Health Care workers and anyone who is exposed to the Public (People who work in stores that remain open). Quit the blame and start to do.

        I think that is why the common citizen of the USA is disgrunted with the Government. They can’t work together to resolve a massive problem because of fear the other side will get the credit. This makes our system dysfunctional.

        I am not such a Trump hater that I want him to fail in this crisis. I would much rather he make good sound decisions and use his power to get much needed things going than fail.

        Some would be so hating of Trump they would accept millions of deaths and a destroyed economy just so they could tell Trump supporter “See we told you!”. This is not rational or logical thought process. Since I live in this Nation I want success to be the objective not justification of hate.

        I am praying that Trump humbles himself and opens his mind to the reality we have a big problem and attacking reporters will not solve the problem, it might satisfy his base but it is not a path to solving the problem.

        Please Government come together and put out the fire. Work together to accomplish a good goal. Maybe you will find out the hostility and polarization are pointless emotional states that actually accomplish nothing but create two hostile tribes that use all their potential energy hitting each other over their heads.

        Do we have to devolve into caveman mentality? What happened to logic and reason? What happened to working together for the common good?

    • Gordon Robertson says:

      nate from your link…”As of Sunday, the city had attributed 16,673 deaths to coronavirus, either because people had tested positive for the virus, or because the circumstances of their death meant that city health officials believed the virus to be the most likely cause of death”.

      Great science. The stats for covid related deaths continue to escalate as ‘city health officials’ ****BELIEVE***** the virus to be the most likely cause of death.

      Get rid of the coroners, We don’t need them. City officials can now determine death by belief. About the same as climate alarmists.

      Th entire US had 500 deaths about 2 weeks ago now it is BELIEVED to be over 50,000, with over 1/3 in NYC. As Mark Twain put it…. there are 3 kinds of lies: lies, damned lies, and statistics. Death is now a statistic related to belief systems.

      Tell you what. I don’t believe any of it, so no one has died in NYC. Now don’t try to prove me wrong using science, we no longer need science, we have belief.

      • Norman says:

        Gordon Robertson

        I watch the same Contrarian videos you seem to be watching such as “Lies, damned lies, and statistics” by a Colbert (think the spelling is close, I go by my memory) along with others. The difference is that these Contrarian views are a religion to you. They are the undisputed truth. Everyone else is lying and fudging numbers. I view these with considerable skeptical view. They never support their opinions with valid evidence. Mostly opinions, definitely not even close to a scientific view. I like them because they keep my mind open but that is about their only value in the scientific sense of things.

        First it is not an unfounded belief that an untested person dies of Covid-19. It is what is expected to be the most likely cause based upon the symptoms. If you were a Doctor and you had a patient come in with a high fever, much coughing and you had seen this before with many patients that had tested positive for Covid-19 would you then assume their death was from kidney failure? Doctors know symptoms of many diseases and conditions by experience. So it is not just a blind unthinking belief an untested person died from infection of coronavirus. It is based upon the experience and most likely cause.

        You should attempt to be more skeptical of the Contrarian Religion. Most of it is false and misleading information. You embrace it like a Golden Calf that is salvation for you.

        Most of your posts are just regurgitation from the lunatic fringe of Contrarians. I have yet to see you show signs of logical or rational thought to form valid conclusions on anything. You post mainly because you suffer from Contrarian thought. It is a false reality where the Contrarian thinks he is so much more intelligent than anyone else and all are deceived by experts. You probably like when people reject you nonsense claims as it makes you feel superior to the Sheeple that think experts more than likely know something about their field.

        You will accept the word of one Contrarian (who does not even have to support what they say) over 1000 experts in the field rationally and logically breaking down the flaws of the Contrarian ideas. It is your religion and if makes you feel superior to everyone. Sorry it is based upon lies and delusion. For every contrarian who gets something right there are hundreds who just lie and will not accept the flaws of their deranged thinking.

        Nothing can change you since it pumps up your Ego and gives you a superiority rush.

    • Nate says:

      Gordon, did you somehow miss the graph with the large, unprecedented spike in deaths, @ 6 x the normal rate?

      All causes included there, but the only thing different is the epidemic.

      Put two and two together man!

  148. Gordon Robertson says:

    moving Bindidon’s math stupidity down here:

    binny…”The case mortality rate for the seasonal flu in the US is about 0.1 %; that of SARS-COV-2 in the US is currently about 5.6 %.”

    You are quick to ad hom others when you cannot even do basic math. The US currently claims about 50,000 deaths from covid19 and that number is being seriously questioned by medical personnel in the field. The head of the coroner’s society in Pennsylvania has claimed frustration over being unable to match bodies to the death count in his state.

    Even at that, the US population is about 320 million, 50,000 deaths represents 50,000/320,000,000 = 0.00015652. Multiply by 100 to get the percent = 0.016%. Where you got 5.6% is beyond me. Perhaps your Excel spreadsheet has been infected by covid. According to your percentage there are less than a million people in the US.

    To make matters worse, if someone dies of cancer and is not positive, and that person had a family member tested positive for covid, that death is marked as covid-related. A couple of weeks ago the US death rate was 500, now it is 50,000. The bean-counters have gotten carried away with their hysteria, panic, and propaganda.

  149. Gordon Robertson says:

    svante…”Different countries report differently. For comparison, reported covid-19 fatalities as fraction of excess mortality:
    NYC: 98%.
    France: 78%.
    Sweden: 71%.
    England and Wales: 68%.
    Spain: 65%.
    Austria: 57%.
    Belgium: 50%.
    Lombardy: 48%.
    Netherlands: 44%.

    ********

    svante old boy, it’s ingenuous to torture statistics like your article has done above. For example, in Italy in 2016/2017, there were nearly 25,000 deaths from the common flu. This year, the numbers are about the same, so even if their percentage, not fraction, of excess mortality was 99%, 99% of nothing is nothing.

    Percent = a fraction x 100.

    And what exactly is excess mortality? Another statistic to to torture?

    The situation in NYC is a poor example. There are a disproportionate number of poor Hispanics and Afro-Americans in NYC and Fauci, head of NIAID, the US infectious disease control outfit has conceded that races like Hispanics and Afro-Americans are more affected by the current contagion than other races. In Louisiana, although Afro-Americans account for 30% of the population they have accounted for 75% of the deaths.

    That’s not a racist comment, it’s a sad fact. The poor, malnourished, and disenfranchised are more susceptible to these contagions than others. There are 70,000 homeless people in NYC out of a population of 8.4 million with 4000 sleeping outside each night. Not a good place to be if you have an infection, a fever, and no medical coverage.

    In a recent study, reported by Dr. Oz, a TV personality and a doctor, in a recent study of covid in NYC of about 1500 people admitted to hospital, 94% had underlying health conditions like high blood pressure, diabetes, and obesity.

    • Nate says:

      “There are a disproportionate number of poor Hispanics and Afro-Americans in NYC and Fauci, head of NIAID, the US infectious disease control outfit has conceded that races like Hispanics and Afro-Americans are more affected by the current contagion than other races.”

      Not denying that plays a role, Gordon.

      But you also have comparable mortality rate in rich and white Westchester and Rockland counties north of NYC and Nassau county on Long Island.

      • Gordon Robertson says:

        If you look at areas like Nassau and Long Island they are predominantly Afro-American and Hispanic. Again, no racist comment intended. I am basing my comments on those of Fauci, head of NIAID, who did not hesitate to admit that certain ethnic groups accounted for most of the deaths.

        Rocklands and Westchester county have large ethnic populations as well, with Afro-Americans and Hispanics making up 30 to 40% of the population. In Louisiana, Afro-Americans make up 30% of the population yet account for 75% of the deaths.

        Governor Cuomo of NY state has zeroed in on rest homes because the number of deaths in rest home is huge compared to other groups. He has ordered an investigation into the care elderly patients receive in the rest homes. About time. Why does it take something like this before governments start checking up on rest home operations?

      • Nate says:

        NY, Westchester, Nassau counties are ranked 1-3 in per capita income. Rockland ranked 6th.

        https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_New_York_locations_by_per_capita_income

        County % white
        Nassau 71
        Weschester 53
        Rockland 77.5

  150. Gordon Robertson says:

    norman…”I am not such a Trump hater that I want him to fail in this crisis. I would much rather he make good sound decisions and use his power to get much needed things going than fail”.

    The first thing he should do is what he has already hinted at…fire Fauci. Then he should get rid of all the model-based butt kissers who have followed the current paradigm about how to deal with such a contagion. They have been utterly wrong so far.

    We need scientists handling this, not necessarily medical scientists, many of whom are far too myopic to make objective decisions. We need scientists like Feynman who are objective and willing to observe the facts without panic or emotion and make the right decisions.

    If you leave it up to the status quo, we’ll be practising social distancing 20 years from now, not because it works but because it arouses the politically-correct wannabees who get to enforce it.

    We have a stupid ass of a politician running the Canadian province of Ontario. When a few protesters flaunted his rulings and gather en masse to protest, he flipped out calling them names. Today, he claimed Ontario’s way of life has changed forever.

    Well guess what, he doesn’t run the province, he works for the people of Ontario. If they don’t like his vision for our society he can be voted out next election.

    And let’s not forget civil disobedience. As a unionist, I am very familiar with it and it works if enough people join in. We will get our freedoms back if they are not forthcoming and we want to take them back. Either that or we will be shot by dictators.

    • Norman says:

      Gordon Robertson

      I would not say you are lying in this post as you are just expressing your opinion. I disagree with you opinion about firing Fauci or that he has been utterly wrong so far. I do not think this is a valid or supported opinion. It appears to me Fauci is quite intelligent, knowledgeable, and has not been proven wrong to any degree. When it comes to a disease I would much prefer medical scientists determining the source of action. Not sure why a person who is an expert at say Atomic Physics would make sound decisions concerning a virus outbreak. I do not know what support you provide to access social distancing is a bad policy. Evidence to support your opinions please.

      • Gordon Robertson says:

        norman…”It appears to me Fauci is quite intelligent, knowledgeable, and has not been proven wrong to any degree”.

        Nobel Laureate and the inventor of the PCR test, Kary Mullis, referred to Fauci in an interview as an ****ole. He was referring to the blatant bs that came out of Fauci regarding the HIV/AIDS hypothesis.

        Mullis was doing a project in a lab involving HIV. He wanted to cite a reference proving HIV caused AIDS. His lab partner laughed and claimed everyone knows that. Mullis told him he could not very well cite on a paper, ‘everyone knows that’.

        Mullis was the type who would not let something like that go easily, so he began searching for such a paper. He even cornered the founder of HIV, Luc Montagnier, at a seminar and asked him point blank for a paper that proved how HIV caused AIDS. Montagnier asked him if he had checked simian (ape) studies and rushed off.

        Mullis claimed that in 10 years of looking for a paper that showed how HIV causes AIDS, he found none. I have no reason to doubt him, he was not a bs artist or prone to butt-kissing. He told it as it is. It cost him, but he never changed. Furthermore, if anyone was qualified to understand such an issue, it was Mullis.

        Fauci, on the other hand, bought into the theory with relish. He pushed the theory even though he had no proof, nor did any of them. Robert Gallo, the scientist co-credited with finding HIV, although it is claimed he stole the work of Montagnier, made himself a fortune by patenting both HIV tests.

        Gallo was a friend of Peter Duesberg at one time but when Duesberg correctly claimed that HIV is harmless to people who don’t practice high risk behavior, Gallo stabbed him in the back. That’s what’s going on even today with viral theorists. They are going along to get along and ruining the careers of those who disagree.

        Much like climate alarmists, you simply cannot trust them.

        • Nate says:

          Fauci was proven absolutely correct about HIV, the anti-viral drugs work and have saved countless lives. These are facts. Do you have ANY data showing this anti-viral treatment doesnt work?

          No? Then you’re simply a purveyor of fertilizer. Enough.

          • theRealPlastic says:

            The persistent, incorrect assertion that antiretroviral therapy for HIV is actively harmful is one of the most bizarre “hill-to-die-on” opinions that I’ve ever encountered.

            Re: fertilizer. The fields of GR’s imaginary landscape must certainly be verdant, if nothing else.

  151. Snape says:

    Moving Gordons stupidity down here:

    [Even at that, the US population is about 320 million, 50,000 deaths represents 50,000/320,000,000 = 0.00015652. Multiply by 100 to get the percent = 0.016%. Where you got 5.6% is beyond me.]

    • Gordon Robertson says:

      snape…”Moving Gordons stupidity down here:”

      You get more delusional each post. Are you sure you’re not a thought-experiment in a demented mind?

  152. Gordon Robertson says:

    svante…”Yes, homogenization and data adjustments are needed.
    The numbers will be revised upward.
    Will Gordon and Eben agree?”

    Would not doubt it a bit if they are not consulting NOAA and NASA GISS as I write, to find how to fudge statistics using unvalidated models.

    • Svante says:

      Berkeley Earth checked up on them.
      It turned out they were right.

      • Gordon Robertson says:

        svante…”Berkeley Earth checked up on them.
        It turned out they were right”.

        Not according to one of the Berkeley Earth team members, Judith Curry. She distanced herself from the study when Mueller, the team leader, began misinterpreting the data to give his own jaundiced views on it.

        The Berkeley Earth study has become a load of pseudo-scientific crap. In that respect, maybe it does uphold the pseudo-scientific crap being offered by NASA GISS and NOAA.

  153. Bindidon says:

    Robertson

    ” moving Bindidon’s math stupidity down here:

    ‘ The case mortality rate for the seasonal flu in the US is about 0.1 %; that of SARS-COV-2 in the US is currently about 5.6 %. ‘

    You are quick to ad hom others when you cannot even do basic math. ”

    You are here the specialist in ‘ad hom’, Robertson. You are the one who uses all the time name calling like ‘stupid’, ‘blithering idiot’ or the like.

    And you name others ‘idiot’ because you are either unable or unwilling to understand what they write, and prefer to deliberately ignore any evidence.

    The usual way to characterize an epidemic is the CASE mortality, i.e. the deaths per cases, and NOT the deaths per million of inhabitants.

    Status on 27.04.20

    1. USA
    – Total cases: 1,010,356
    – Total deaths: 56,797

    Case mortality: 5.6 %
    Deaths per million: 172, i.e. 0.017 %

    2. Canada
    – Total cases: 48,500
    – Total deaths: 2,707

    Case mortality: 5.6 %
    Deaths per million: 72, i.e. 0.007 %

    People like you doubt about everything, and therefore ignore everything and thus don’t understand anything.

    • Gordon Robertson says:

      binny…”The usual way to characterize an epidemic is the CASE mortality, i.e. the deaths per cases, and NOT the deaths per million of inhabitants”.

      What you are measuring is the number of hypothetical deaths attributed to covid versus the hypothetical number of cases. I am measuring the real number of deaths in a population attributed to covid over the entire US population.

      I don’t believe the numbers of either based on the ridiculous tests used to measure infection. The tests don’t test for a virus they test for an inferred virus. All I am doing is the math. Even if the numbers are fudged, the per capita death rate in the US is about 0.016%.

      • theRealPlastic says:

        Breathtaking in ignorance.

        What have you to gain in these lies?

        You state: “I don’t believe the numbers … based on ridiculous tests”

        From one who works with this particular test, I respectfully submit: what the hell do you know?

  154. Bindidon says:

    I read this above:

    ” And lets not forget civil disobedience. As a unionist, I am very familiar with it and it works if enough people join in. We will get our freedoms back if they are not forthcoming and we want to take them back. Either that or we will be shot by dictators. ”

    Ha ha ha ha!

    Robertson, this blog’s most professional liar, is telling us “… we will be shot by dictators” !

    Robertson is by far too much a coward to be shot by anybody!

    At best would he, sitting comfortably in his living room, watch on the TV screen how some stupid alt-right idiots were shot by the National Guards for refusing to put down their rifles!

    Above all, if there is something that big boaster Robertson certainly has no idea about, then it is dictatorship.

    Never did he have anything to do with the Gestapo, or the Stasi or similar!

    Like all of us, he is a lucky beneficiary of democracy.

    • Gordon Robertson says:

      binny…”Robertson, this blogs most professional liar, is telling us we will be shot by dictators !”

      You have no idea how quick some US police can be on the draw when someone resists. We are never that far from dictatorship in democracies so don’t allow yourself to be fooled. After 9/11, the head of the US Army, Tommy Franks, admitted it had crossed his mind to take over.

      If you look at what goes on behind the scenes with the CIA and FBI, you might be a bit more alert.

  155. Snape says:

    What is happening right now in Brazil is eerily similar to whats going on in the US:

    https://www.vox.com/2020/4/28/21228512/brazil-bolsonaro-coronavirus-moro

    • Svante says:

      Views on climate change is a good sanity check for politicians. Brazil might fare better with covid-19 because they have a young population.

  156. Snape says:

    Brazil, 4/28/20

    New cases: 6,398
    New deaths: 520

  157. Bindidon says:

    Worldometers and the European CD-C seem to differ in their stats, as is visible when comparing Brazil for April 28 included:

    72,899 cases / 5,063 deaths vs. 71,886 / 5,017.

    The same holds of course for the sums over all countries:

    3,136,508 / 217,813 vs. 3,052,370 / 216,563.

    With 6.95 %, Brazil’s case mortality rate surprisingly is on par with the global average.

    J.-P. D.

    • Svante says:

      The “glorious no lock down” country left it all to the experts.
      Here’s one of them: https://tinyurl.com/y846bu9p

      • Bindidon says:

        Svante

        Yes, and some countries in the EU do not seem to publish real data.
        Hungary: 2727 cases, 300 deaths…

        Hmmmh.

      • Gordon Robertson says:

        svante…”The glorious no lock down country left it all to the experts”.

        Excellent video, Svante. Unfortunately, other ‘experts’ don’t have the insight or courage of the Swedish epidemiologist in this video. I like the way the guy states the facts in a scientific manner.

        He’s right, you cannot keep an indefinite lockdown going in democratic countries. Also, once some of them get their taste of power, like in Hungary, you’ll never get rid of them.

        He mentioned how politicians are getting off on the power of appearing to be in control.

    • Gordon Robertson says:

      binny…”Exactly what happened in France at the end of February:”

      As the good doctor said in Svante’s video, you’re gonna get it sooner or later. Some won’t notice it and others will. Some will get very ill.

      If someone thinks he/she is at risk, he/she should self-isolate till the worst of it is over in about 2 months, according to the Swedish epidemiologist. We should be doing something to ensure those people can survive financially.

  158. Bindidon says:

    Svante

    As predictable, the most ignorant and most pretentious person spewed one more time his reckless and respectless nonsense.

    I can only repeat: people like Robertson should be sentenced by a court to a six-week forced stay in an hospital so full of patients that the doctors don’t know whom to help in surviving.

    The best job for him there would be to make protective clothing of doctors and nurses clean!

    *
    A look at today’s top ten for

    – the death toll per million:
    Belgium 647
    Spain 519
    Italy 458
    UK 384
    France 369
    Netherlands 275
    Sweden 244
    Ireland 241
    Switzerland 198
    USA 186

    – the case mortality rate:
    UK 15.8
    Belgium 15.7
    France 14.5
    Italy 13.6
    Sweden 12.1
    Netherlands 12.1
    Spain 10.2
    Ireland 5.9
    Switzerland 5.8
    USA 5.8

    Four weeks ago, USA, UK and… of course, Sweden were totally invisible here.

    And while highly affected countries like Italy, Spain, France and even Belgium slowly move out of the epidemic status, Sweden and especially UK are full in the ascending part of the mortality curve.

    *
    Germany is a worldwide exception: as opposed to the USA and the UK, we have clever politicians who invested in health care.

    Apart from one or two corners, we have here absolute ICU abundance, what explains our ‘good’ values (77 deaths pm, 4 % case mortality).

    But we know that despite the highly disciplined lockdown and increasing tests, the case mortality rate increases instead of decreasing.

    Germany experiences now a relaxation of its lockdown. We will see how that influences the reproduction factor.

    No one wishes here a second wave! Especially not all the economically endangered people who very well understand the economic consequences of such an epidemic comeback.

    Rgds
    J.-P. D.

    • Bindidon says:

      The case mortality top 10 is here restricted to the top ten of the deaths per million above it. Otherwise, countries like Iran, Brazil and Mexico would have been in.

    • Svante says:

      Of course it’s vital that the emergency care is not saturated.
      I think new deaths have peaked in both the UK and Sweden, like in most European countries. Both countries have failed to protect the vulnerable.
      New cases will go up because testing goes up.
      England added non-hospital deaths yesterday.
      To compare mortality rate I think we have to wait for the science and excess mortality statistics, because different countries report differently.

      • Bindidon says:

        Svante

        ” New cases will go up because testing goes up. ”

        We shouldn’t reduce case increase to test increase:
        – Germany and Italy have the same test rate (around 30 K per M) but Italy has a much higher case mortality;
        – the UK and Belgium have the same case mortality rate (over 15 %) but Belgium has a much higher test rate than the UK.

    • Gordon Robertson says:

      binny…”Germany is a worldwide exception: as opposed to the USA and the UK, we have clever politicians who invested in health care”.

      You have to take into account the Teutonic bs quotient.

      In Canada, with a population of 36 million we have 3184 deaths. In Germany with a population of 83 million you have 6623 deaths. The difference percentage-wise is 0.009% for Canada and 0.008% for Germany. Insignificant.

      However, you have to take into account that most deaths in Canada, by far, are happening in the Eastern provinces of Quebec and Ontario. Here in British Columbia in God’s country, on the west coast, we’ve had about 100 deaths out of a Vancouver area population of 2.8 million which is about 0.0036%.

      That puts BC well ahead of Germany. We have a Chinese population of over 1 million and many of those people were flying back and forth to the infected area in China till at least mid-March. Nothing came of it.

      The death rate the world over is no different than we’d expect from a severe flu, as the epidemiologist in Svante’s video pointed out. Only hysterical people make a big deal of it. The rest of the world wants to get past the bs and get the world going again.

  159. Norman says:

    Gordon Robertson

    Please just stick to your opinions when you post. Everything else is a sickening lie peddling your false and misleading (And actually dangerous) Contrarian Religion!

    In a response to my post above you peddle this false information that is easy to prove a lie.

    YOUR LYING POST: “Mullis was the type who would not let something like that go easily, so he began searching for such a paper. He even cornered the founder of HIV, Luc Montagnier, at a seminar and asked him point blank for a paper that proved how HIV caused AIDS. Montagnier asked him if he had checked simian (ape) studies and rushed off.”

    Cite when this actually occurred or did you get it from some dishonest Contrarian Blog and knowingly chose to post it without support?

    There are many studies that prove HIV causes AIDS and Mullis could have easily found them if he looked. So either you are totally lying about Mullis and what he claimed or Mullis is not a good researcher. I choose to believe you are just lying like you always seem to do. I request and plead with you to quit lying but you can’t seem to stop doing it. So ingrained is your dishonesty you do not even attempt to find the Truth of anything. lies, damn lies and Gordon Robertson, the biggest liar of them all!

    Here read this article. Look at the reference at the end it lists many science articles studying HIV and AIDS and the connection to each other.

    https://www.rki.de/DE/Content/InfAZ/H/HIVAIDS/FAQ/Kritik_DistortionOfScience.html

    Most posters on this blog know you are a compulsive liar. Yet you keep doing it without shame. You do it again.

  160. Norman says:

    Gordon Robertson

    So are trying to prove a complete lie and pull someone else, Mullis, into your spider web of deceit? Do you have actual proof Mullis made this claim. I would want to know why he made such a claim, the context. Your claim there is no paper linking HIV to AIDS is such an extreme lie and is most easy to prove an extreme lie.

    Here look at this.

    https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC5444800/

    Thousands of papers have been written on the topic and you claim he could not find even one?

    Please stop lying. Why do you have to be so incredibly dishonest that everything you post is false and untrue? This is more of a Science blog. You can go to the Contrarian blogs like PSI and they will accept your false lies without question. Science is not a Contrarian Religious organization based upon lies and unsupported claims. Science works with evidence and support for claims. You make outrageous claims with zero support. I research them, prove they are false, then you ignore me and continue. This makes you not just a mistaken person but a liar. People make mistakes all the time. Honest people correct their mistakes. Liars don’t care, they continue on then it is no longer a mistake but an actual lie.

  161. Norman says:

    Gordon Robertson

    I looked up your beloved scientist Peter Duesberg. He is a contrarian, like you, just to be one. His conviction is shown to have led to many deaths in South Africa because the leader chose to listen to this person.

    His claims has been proven wrong. He cherry picks only data that he can use and ignores all else. A lot like you.

    That is not a scientist anymore. It is a person who is compelled by religious dogma in the Contrarian Religion and one of the leaders of the movement. Contrarians are not truth seekers (the heart of a scientist) they are fame seekers.

    “Long considered a contrarian by his scientific colleagues,[3] Duesberg began to gain public notoriety with a March 1987 article in Cancer Research entitled “Retroviruses as Carcinogens and Pathogens: Expectations and Reality”.[4] In this and subsequent writings, Duesberg proposed his hypothesis that AIDS is caused by long-term consumption of recreational drugs or antiretroviral drugs, and that HIV is a harmless passenger virus.”

    So he has lost the heart of a scientist and likes the public notoriety and as long as he persists in his false misleading narrative full of terrible research and devoid of a quest for proof, he has contrarian supports like you.

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Peter_Duesberg

    The desire to have notoriety to the public matters more to him than the Truth. Sad state of mind. Fame is a powerful narcotic to the human mind and can derail many people who seek it.

    • theRealPlastic says:

      Duesberg is a sociopath and outlier who has never actually worked in HIV/AIDS research, but was sufficiently bolstered by his personal homophobia, egomania, and ignorance to make declarations about that particular field of virology. I say “sociopath” because there is something badly, mentally wrong with a man comfortable with causing people to actively suffer in the name of his own power trip.

      He was comfortable enough to act as a denialist “advisor” to Mbeki of South Africa. Mbeki’s hand-picked posse of denialists, racists, greed-driven outliers consequently helped cause umpteen thousands of deaths by denying medical treatment for HIV, but oh well …it was really dirty water or something, right GR?

      Duesberg’s proclamations first occurred waaaaaaaay back in the 80s, which is enough for contrarian/moron-at-large GR to view as a valid and relevant opinion. But certain narrow-minded people find it utterly impossible to re-evaluate their views…their ego is involved, so they simply double-down. GR repetitively argues that Duesberg and his ilk have been punished and ostracized because of their contrarian views but that is hardly the case. Duesberg, the smug contrarian, enjoys tenure at UofC Berkeley where it is impossible to oust him. He does not suffer at all.

      It is …an interesting psychology, to say the least… to be of the mindset that reveres these types of harmful people, and in the same breath insult the relevant, knowledgeable, working scientists actually involved in research and decision-making. There is an interesting psychology at play when the “black sheep” must be automatically correct, and everyone else is wrong.

      It all comes from a place of hate and resentment…who knows why? But it’s not science, or a need for truth.

      I come here for the interesting climate debate and am mostly a lurker. But GR stands out as so harmful yet weirdly adamant in his views, I get roused to respond. Sorry if I ever hijack the thread, I do not mean to.

      • Svante says:

        Yes, psychology is the most intriguing aspect of the whole climate issue.

      • Bindidon says:

        theRealPlastic

        ” Sorry if I ever hijack the thread, I do not mean to. ”

        There is only one person hijacking this thread.

        And he does that because he is too much a coward to post his ignorant and pretentious BS anywhere else: he would be banned within a day.

        J.-P. D.

      • Norman says:

        theRealPlastic

        I think you might have the answer to what drives Gordon Robertson.

        It would not explain the actual scientists that go Contrarian (which I think is driven by the brain candy of groupie worship).

        YOU: “It all comes from a place of hate and resentmentwho knows why? But its not science, or a need for truth.”

        Gordon Robertson is not a bright person. Real science requires much effort and thought to understand. I think the Contrarian backlash is a product of the ever expanding complexity of real science. When Gordon was a child the science Universe was easy. An atom was a Protons, Neutrons and electrons. Little solid balls, heavy ones in the center and the light ones circling in orbits around the heavy ones like planets around the Sun. Now it is so much more complex and difficult to understand. Gordon resents modern science with an hatred as it constantly reminds him of how unintelligent he is. He can’t learn the current science that continue to forge ahead, sometimes at a rapid pace. It leaves him feeling stupid and slow. So in reaction and to preserve his Ego he latches on to the Contrarian Religion. All simple, all easy to understand. The scientists are dumb and wrong, the Contrarians are brilliant with their simple ideas and bland explanations. Does not matter they lie and deceive. Many left behind, like Gordon and the others that haunt this blog can’t accept the reality that they are too slow and unintelligent to keep up with scientific discoveries so they pretend they are brilliant and everyone else it stupid and blind.

        • Gordon Robertson says:

          norman…”When Gordon was a child the science Universe was easy. An atom was a Protons, Neutrons and electrons. Little solid balls, heavy ones in the center and the light ones circling in orbits around the heavy ones like planets around the Sun”.

          *****

          And how has that changed? It has always been a model derived by Niels Bohr but no one has ever proved him wrong.

          Guess what Norman, they still use the same model in chemistry and electronics. Organic chemistry is based on that very model. When you study organic chemistry they offer the basics as electrons orbiting a nucleus of protons and neutrons. The only difference is that Bohr’s model was based on hydrogen with one proton in its nucleus, no neutrons, and one orbiting electron.

          That little electron is 1/1800ths the size of the proton but it has an equal and opposite electrical charge. That has been verified in physics and is the basis of electronics and electrical theory taught at university. It also carries a magnetic field and is the source of all electromagnetic energy in the universe.

          Even quantum theory as laid down by Schrodinger is based on the same electron orbiting the same proton in hydrogen, as described by Bohr. All Schrodinger did was create a differential equation with multiple solutions to describe the action of the electron/proton interaction.

          The various solutions to Schrodinger’s equation describes the various orbits in which the electron can be found. I don’t particularly buy into the orbital theory but there is very good evidence from xray work done by Linus Pauling that the nucleus exists and that molecules can be described by combining atoms based the electron/proton theory.

          You talk about things having changed in modern times. All that has changed is alterations to the theory to account for atoms with multiple proton/neutron nucleii with their accompanying multiple orbital electrons.

          The theory might not prove correct but thus far it explains a lot of basic physics that no other model can explain. Furthermore, electrons can be separated from the nucleus and used externally, like in an electron microscope, a cathode rays tube, microwave and radar devices, and in electrical currents.

          Before you go shooting your mouth off about my abilities you should at least take a high school course in basic physics/electronics.

          • Norman says:

            Gordon Robertson

            Bindidon is correct about you. You are too ignorant to even attempt any rational discussion with. The atomic model you think is valid is one they teach grade-school students. The current model is that the electron does not orbit at all. It exists in a region of space around a nucleus called a probability cloud. It smears out over the region neither particle or wave until you test what it is. It can then have either wave properties or particle properties depending upon how you set up the experiment (yes actual experiments).

            The orbit hypothesis was rejected based upon this reality. When charged particles accelerate they give off radiant energy. As it moved in orbit an electron would constantly lose energy and fall into the nucleus. The orbit idea was dropped by scientists because o this.

            You have a grade-school understanding of the atomic model and nothing will change your view. You are not a smart person and the real physics (based upon multiple experiments which you could not understand) gives a different model that works at this time. If new information comes in than this model will be revised.

            Rather than being a knuckle dragging poster why don’t you go to a library and read magazines like Nature or Science or a host of others they offer and see that they ARE DOING experiments all the time!!

  162. Gordon Robertson says:

    Once more Norman puts both feet firmly in his mouth.

    norman…”YOUR LYING POST:….Cite when this actually occurred”

    Here you go, straight from Kary Mullis, Nobel Laureate:

    http://free-news.org/mulluk01.htm

    “Finally, I had an opportunity to question one of the giants in HIV and AIDS research, DL Luc Montagnier of the Pasteur Institute, when he gave a talk in San Diego. It would be the last time I would be able to ask my little question without showing anger, and I figured Montagnier would know the answer. So I asked him.

    With a look of condescending puzzlement, Montagnier said, Why don’t you quote the report from the Centers for Disease Control?.

    I replied, It doesn’t really address the issue of whether or not HIV is the probable cause of AIDS, does it?.

    No, he admitted, no doubt wondering when I would just go away. He looked for support to the little circle of people around him, but they were all awaiting a more definitive response, like I was.

    Why don’t you quote the work on SIV [Simian Immunodeficiency Virus]? the good doctor offered.

    Luc Montagnier.I read that too, DL Montagnier, I responded. What happened to those monkeys didn’t remind me of AIDS. Besides, that paper was just published only a couple of months ago. I’m looking for the original paper where somebody showed that HIV caused AIDS.

    This time, DL Montagnier’s response was to walk quickly away to greet an acquaintance across the room”.

    • Norman says:

      Gordon Robertson

      No I did not stick my foot in my mouth as you falsely claimed. I gave two options. Either you are lying (which is normal for you) or Mullis is a very poor researcher. There are numerous science articles written about HIV and AIDS. Many. Mullis could not find one? He wanted people to send him one. What a lazy researcher. Go to the library and do your own work. There are numerous article that examine many different aspects. You are just wrong and your heroes are dishonest people.

      Duesberg is a really horrible scientist and a bad human. His idiotic contrarian view causes real death of life. Just a contrarian convincing dumb people like you that science is flawed yet he will give you the Truth. Like an evil snake. Giving false misleading information to low minds like you and pretending it is the Truth. Read the article about this phony. He is lucky he can’t get fired. He is no longer any type of scientist his research is not scientific in any way. He is a lying miserable person seeking fame. I would no longer refer to him as a scientist since he is not looking for the Truth. He is seeking fame from cult worship.

  163. Gordon Robertson says:

    plastic…”Duesberg is a sociopath and outlier who has never actually worked in HIV/AIDS research, but was sufficiently bolstered by his personal homophobia, egomania, and ignorance to make declarations about that particular field of virology. I say sociopath because there is something badly, mentally wrong with a man comfortable with causing people to actively suffer in the name of his own power trip”.

    And you’re a friggin idiot. You have already established that.

    Duesberg is an expert in retroviruses and for his work he was awarded the California Scientist of the Year Award. He was also the youngest scientist ever inducted into the National Academy of Science. No one fitting your perverted description gets into NAS.

    Duesberg is not homophobic, in fact he offered excellent advice to homosexuals. He advised that if they had a monogamous relationship nothing would happen to them re HIV. The homosexuals he referenced were those gathering in steam baths in New York and San Francisco, having sexual encounters with multiple partners while doing up to six designer drugs.

    When these MALES started getting sick, all Duesberg claimed is there’s not way a virus can differentiate a male from a female. He claimed it was theie lifestyle causing the problems and he has been proved right. The scientist who discovered HIV now agrees with him that AIDS is a lifestyle issue and that HIV is harmless to a healthy immune system.

    One of the drugs was amyl nitrate, which they called poppers. It used to be used for heart patients because it is a vasoldilator. The homosexuals found others uses for it as a muscle relaxant, dilating other physical entrances. Amyl nitrate, when inhaled, is now recognized as the cause of the pneumonia conditions that are listed as an AIDS opportunistic infection.

    When a concerned citizen, himself a gay, learned of that, he took it to gay leaders in the Castro area of San Francisco and they told him to mind his own business. This is not about Duesberg and homophobia, it’s about idiots engaging in dangerous, high, risk behaviour and dying from it.

    Before you go foul mouthing a very good scientist, who was right about HIV/AIDS, check out what he has to say for himself. There is nothing homophobic in his writings.

    Duesberg is a very decent, intelligent man.

    https://www.duesberg.com/

  164. Gordon Robertson says:

    plastic…”Duesberg, the smug contrarian, enjoys tenure at UofC Berkeley where it is impossible to oust him. He does not suffer at all”.

    More bs from an idiot.

    Duesberg has been demoted to covering lab classes, They can’t fire him due to his tenure but why would anyone want to harass someone like Duesberg for making statements for which he was ultimately proved correct?

    John Christy and Roy Spencer of UAH get harassed in a similar manner. They have trouble publishing papers because alarmists jerks have taken over the peer review process.

    What you stand for, you idiot, is the perversion of science by arrogant ignoramuses like yourself. There is no reason whatsoever that any scientist should be ostracized for forming an opinion. As John Christy has claimed, skepticism is the hallmark of science. When you suppress skepticism, science goes back to the dark ages.

  165. Gordon Robertson says:

    binny…”There is only one person hijacking this thread”.

    What happened to your female alter-ego Rose? Remember when you left the blog in a snit claiming you’d never be back, then showed up a couple of weeks later as a woman?

    That was a hoot. At least you could have changed your writing style rather than making it obvious you were really Binny the Bimbo.

    • Bindidon says:

      Robertson

      You really are the dumbest guy here.

      Best greetings from my Pangolina who got forever sad of your disgusting, pseudoscientific nonsense!

      J.-P. D.

  166. ren says:

    The main treatment should be a reduction of angiotensin II, because it is the main proinflammatory factor in Covid-19 disease. Therefore, deterioration of the patient’s condition often occurs after 10 days, despite the production of antibodies.
    https://www.sciencedirect.com/topics/biochemistry-genetics-and-molecular-biology/angiotensin-converting-enzyme-2

    • Gordon Robertson says:

      ren…from your link…”SARS CoV infection is initiated through inoculation of the respiratory tract mucosa using angiotensin-converting enzyme 2 acting as the functional receptor for cell entry”.

      If that’s true, then why is it not causing problems for 99%+ of populations? Many people who test positive have no symptoms whatsoever. If covid is there, infection the respiratory tract, why does it not affect a lot of people?

  167. Gordon Robertson says:

    norman…”He cant learn the current science that continue to forge ahead, sometimes at a rapid pace”.

    Are you referring to the New Science based on consensus and belief that has excluded the scientific method?

    Do you call it progress when science gets perverted just so scientists can earn grants? Science is not forging ahead in many instances, it is regressing.

    Of course, someone as naive as you, thoroughly lacking the basics, would never be able to see that.

  168. Bindidon says:

    We don’t need to care about boasters like Robertson.

    And to name them ‘Contrarian’ as Norman does is not correct: Robertson is no more than a denialist, and some other denialists excepted, there won’t be any people who take him and his bullshit seriously.

    Imagine! The little, totally insignificant Robertson doubting about time dilation and other results of Einstein… Ha ha.

    I will never forget him trying to teach Peter Morcombe aka gallopingcamel about how to design the magnets in a synchroton.

    People like Robertson are only able to guess, doubt, discredit, denigrate and… lie.

    One is for sure: he is NO engineer, has never been.

    J.-P. D.

    • Gordon Robertson says:

      binny…”The little, totally insignificant Robertson doubting about time dilation and other results of Einstein Ha ha.

      I will never forget him trying to teach Peter Morcombe aka gallopingcamel about how to design the magnets in a synchroton”.

      ****

      To set the record straight, I suggested Cam look for an alternative explanation to time dilation in his experiments. When particles are directed around a circular or oval path using magnets, time has nothing to do with the processes. If it ‘appears’ as if time is changing its duration, it is an illusion. Find what is causing the illusion, look at the actual masses and forces acting on them. Time has nothing to do with those forces and masses

      Time is based on the rotation of the Earth, which is a constant. Since the earliest, most crude forms of time, like the sundial, it is blatantly obvious that the sundial is measuring the position of the Earth’s rotation wrt the Sun. Even with that example, the human mind tends to see the Sun moving around the Earth, rather than seeing the illusion created by relative motion. I’m sure the time dilation reported by Cam is an illusion as well.

      The modern clock is no different, it tracks the position of the Earth’s rotation wrt the Sun or wrt the background stars. All clocks are synchronized to the Earth’s rotation which is a relative constant wrt the second. Accurate clocks were developed for ships so sailors could keep tract of longitude. Do you think it’s a coincidence there are 24 hours in a day and 24 major lines of longitude, every 15 degrees, defining time zones?

      Time is a constant, it cannot change unless the angular velocity of the Earth changes.

      Again, Binny appeals to authority. Someone as great as Einstein appears to most people could not possibly be wrong. Is that what you mean? Well, the scientist who invented the atomic clock, Louis Essen, thinks he’s wrong. Essen has gone so far as to claim the overall theory of relativity is not even a theory, much of it being based on speculation and thought experiment.

      There is no argument that the relationship between motion on bodies undergoing relative motion is correct. That had already been calculated using Newtonian physics and Einstein admitted that. It was the thought-experiment based claims that bothered Essen, like time dilation.

      When time is based on an atomic clock, it is based on the natural oscillations (vibrations) of atoms. Therefore, if time can dilate, the atoms have to change their vibrational frequency. I know this is tough to understand when you are programmed not to see it, but, heck, even you could see it if you wanted to. As accurate as atomic clocks are, their vibrational frequencies must still be divided down to equal the second derived from the angular velocity of the Earth.

      Another place Einstein likely erred was in his assumption that electromagnetic energy absorbed by electrons increased their mass. If that was the case, over the eons, the Earth would have a lot more mass than it does now. Unless one wants to indulge in the pseudo-science that it radiates as much mass away as it acquires from solar energy.

      That lead to E = mc^2. The equation suggests that energy and mass are equivalent given the squared speed of lights as proportionality constant. What Big E. failed to do was define the energy in question. Is it true for thermal energy, electrical energy, etc.? A contemporary of Einstein, Planck, claimed that energy cannot be measured, which is correct. Any measure we have of energy is the effect the energy has on whatever it affects but you cannot measure the energy itself.

  169. Snape says:

    Gordon

    [If thats true, then why is it not causing problems for 99%+ of populations? Many people who test positive have no symptoms whatsoever. If covid is there, infection the respiratory tract, why does it not affect a lot of people?]

    Why are most people able to lead normal lives, while others need to be supervised by a nurse and security guards? These are difficult questions to answer.

    • Gordon Robertson says:

      snape…”Why are most people able to lead normal lives, while others need to be supervised by a nurse and security guards? These are difficult questions to answer”.

      Very difficult questions. However, we cannot begin to answer the questions until we are willing to let go of our all-encompassing focus on a killer virus. A similar focus on HIV as a killer virus cost us trillions in research and much anguish to many people.

      Had we listened to objective minds like those of Peter Duesberg at the time, we might have seen that the problem in North America involved high risk groups mainly composed of men. In Africa, although their lifestyles were high risk, they had no choice. Malnutrition, contaminated drinking water, and parasitic infections are endemic to certain parts of Africa. Conditions like that severely weaken immune systems.

      We panicked and bought into a bad theory that AIDS is caused by a virus. The theory was not even subjected to peer review. We know now, through the admission of Luc Montagnier, who found the virus, that HIV is harmless to a healthy immune system. The data backs him. Over 90% of AIDS deaths per year in the US since 1983 have involved people practising high risk behaviour.

      That appears to be the case with covid. Those with healthy immune system often show no symptoms even when infected. The health care workers who are dying seem to be seriously stressed from working long hours and may have compromised immune systems. Some, unfortunately, have become so stressed they have taken their own lives.

      It has also been learned that most masks will pass a virus freely, even a surgical mask. The only mask that can effectively stop a virus is the N95 mask and it is only 90% effective. People wearing cloth masks are unprotected and may even be harming themselves through trapping viruses in the moistened areas of the mask from breathing.

  170. Snape says:

    Which one is you….. I cant remember?

    https://tinyurl.com/y88jb4a4

  171. Bindidon says:

    Well we in Germoney would enjoy a bit more water on the ground…

    https://tinyurl.com/yakucgpf

    Blue: enough water / white: neutral / red: deficit

    We are far from Dust-Bowl-like drought! This is no reason however to keep silent.

  172. Bindidon says:

    Time dilation denialists love to refer to Louis Essen, the great conceptor of the atomic clock, who also provided us with a very accurate calculation of the speed of light.

    Essen was a contrarian to this concept of time dilation because he did never accept the time dilation’s theoretical origin: the Lorentz transformations.

    But he never managed to definitely contradict the principle.

    His main critique to Einstein’s work:
    https://od.lk/f/OV80NjcxMTI1NV9rMkJwZQ

    Another, more general critique of Einsteins’ work by R. A. Monti:
    https://digilander.libero.it/VNereo/r-a-monti-theory-of-relativity-a-critical-analysis.pdf

    Yeah. Critique is very important, but… must also lead in a thorough scientific contradiction, and in a consistent proof that all uses of Einstein’s results are wrong!

    J.-P. D.

    • Gordon Robertson says:

      binny…”Essen was a contrarian to this concept of time dilation because he did never accept the time dilations theoretical origin: the Lorentz transformations”.

      The Lorentz transforms are based on an incorrect assumption, that time can influence mass and force. It’s a fundamental error that should have been caught. For some reason, in the times of Lorenz and early Einstein, it was presumed that time is a real, physical quantity.

      That presumption is wrong, time is a human invention and it is manifested in the human mind as memory and thought. Thought does not have to be time-based and that kind of thought is related to awareness, intelligence, insight, and the here-and-now. Much of human thought, however, is a distortion related to a reliance on old information stored in memory.

      The past and future are examples of distorted thought. Neither exist in the real physical universe, only in the minds of humans. It appears Lorentz was unable to see that.

    • Gordon Robertson says:

      binny…”Critique is very important, but… must also lead in a thorough scientific contradiction, and in a consistent proof that all uses of Einstein’s results are wrong!”

      Thanks for links, interesting reading.

      I have never claimed that all uses of Einstein’s results are wrong. I have claimed that certain presumptions of his theories are wrong and demonstrably wrong.

      Even Essen overlooks the importance of the definition of time. He states:”We measure time by noting the repetition of some regular process and counting the number on a dial”. He acknowledges that time is based on the regular rotation of the Earth. but we are not measuring time, we are measuring the repetition of the rotation using a rotating machine, as a mechanical clock, which is synchronized to the rotation of the Earth. I know we have digital clocks today but in Einstein’s day they were all mechanical dials driven by an unwinding spring force.

      Even Essen seems to miss this because he talked about time possibly changing due to magnetic forces on the atomic nucleii in an atomic clock. An atomic clock, like its rusty old counterpart, the mechanical clock, does not measure time, it generates time based on a human defined second. In other words, an atomic clock does not generate seconds, it generates a repetitive signal which must be adjusted to match the second we derived from the planet’s rotation.

      What came first, the chicken or the egg? Obviously the Earth was rotating long before we had clocks and probably long before the human mind was observing it. We humans needed a reference to keep tract of events so we used the regular periodicity of the Earth’s rotation as a basis for the second.

      The first mechanical clock may not have been based on the actual angular velocity of a full rotation maybe it was reset every few days to coincide with the first appearance of the Sun. However, as science progressed we developed more sophisticated clocks which are nothing more than rotating machine having nothing to do with time.

      By learning to synchronize the machine accurately with the angular velocity of the planet we learned to synchronize one rotation of the clock (sometimes two rotations) with one rotation of the Earth. Only then could we sub-divide the clock rotation into divisions of hours, minutes, and seconds to produce a ‘constant’ second.

      According to Essen, and I think he’s right, Einstein came along and replace our definition of the second and our definition of the metre with his own definition based on the speed of light. For example, our basic definition of distance is velocity x time, or s = vt. That’s basically what the Lorenz transforms use as well as Einstein.

      So, Einstein is now saying, t is not the definition we defined using the rotation of the Earth, it is now
      t(1-v^2/c^2). Since length is s = vt it now becomes
      s = vt(1-v^2/c^2).

      The ratio v^2/c^2 is very small for terrestrial speeds and only becomes significant near the speed of light. The point is, Einstein had no business making such assumptions. We humans had already defined time based on the angular velocity of the planet and the length of a metre as a fraction of the distance from the Equator to the North Pole.

      You can see the problem with Einstein’s thinking with his explanation of the Twin Paradox. The paradox (why not a pair o’ geese as Chico Marx would say) is the inference that one of a pair of twins who travels from Earth at the speed of light will be a different age than the twin who stayed behind when the travelling twin returns. Einstein explained the age difference on the acceleration experience by the traveller.

      Sorry Albert, aging relies on biochemical processes not time and your understanding of acceleration seems flawed. Anyone travelling in space would not continually accelerate, they would level of at a constant velocity. Einstein did not seem to get it that a force causes acceleration when applied to a mass. He seemed to think acceleration is a natural process in the universe which causes things to happen.

      Not so. Acceleration is a product a force acting on a mass. Time has nothing to do with either.

  173. Roy Nathanson says:

    I have read the Constitution. The press is not the “4th branch of government”. Their job is to report the news. And, lately, they haven’t been doing their jobs very well.

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  175. Bruce Groth says:

    Dr. Roy – Please consider updating this graph. Overall U.S. mortality has dropped significantly the last two weeks. Even more revealing if you adjust for mortality rate since the U.S. population is still growing.

    • Bruce Groth says:

      Didn’t realize how much the data changes going back a year or so until I looked more closely at your article here. But still would like to see an update since the overall mortality does seem to decrease more quickly than the reported COVID-19 deaths.

  176. Gordon Robertson says:

    Roy N…your absolutely right about the media. They have been spreading one-sided propaganda rather than reporting the facts.

    You need look no further than the recent case of Judy Mikovitz whose video Plandemic has been black-listed by the hysterical status quo. I have seen the video and I saw nothing in it that should be banned. If she’s lying about her claims against Fauci, she’ll end up in court. However, Kary Mullis, a Nobelist who invented the PCR method for DNA amplification made his feelings known about Fauci in no uncertain terms, using a common expletive in his description.

    Where there’s smoke, there could be fire.

  177. Kimberly says:

    Can you please rerun your Model? Im trying to convince law makers and media to use context in decision making. Deaths/100,000
    By type compared to other years and total deaths/100,000 is telling, however the way in which information is being presented is intentionally misleading. Thanks

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  179. Anthonie Garcia says:

    I appreciate the information on this blog. I have a question about the upward death trend weekly graph and the possiblity that the increase is related to the sudden neglect and care of people with other underlying health issues not at all related to Covid. Any clarification would be appreciated.

    https://www.bbc.com/future/article/20200528-why-most-covid-19-deaths-wont-be-from-the-virus

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