Home/BlogThe Version 6.1 global average lower tropospheric temperature (LT) anomaly for June, 2025 was +0.48 deg. C departure from the 1991-2020 mean, down slightly from the May, 2025 anomaly of +0.50 deg. C.
The Version 6.1 global area-averaged linear temperature trend (January 1979 through June 2025) now stands at +0.16 deg/ C/decade (+0.22 C/decade over land, +0.13 C/decade over oceans).
The following table lists various regional Version 6.1 LT departures from the 30-year (1991-2020) average for the last 18 months (record highs are in red).
| YEAR | MO | GLOBE | NHEM. | SHEM. | TROPIC | USA48 | ARCTIC | AUST |
| 2024 | Jan | +0.80 | +1.02 | +0.58 | +1.20 | -0.19 | +0.40 | +1.12 |
| 2024 | Feb | +0.88 | +0.95 | +0.81 | +1.17 | +1.31 | +0.86 | +1.16 |
| 2024 | Mar | +0.88 | +0.96 | +0.80 | +1.26 | +0.22 | +1.05 | +1.34 |
| 2024 | Apr | +0.94 | +1.12 | +0.76 | +1.15 | +0.86 | +0.88 | +0.54 |
| 2024 | May | +0.78 | +0.77 | +0.78 | +1.20 | +0.05 | +0.20 | +0.53 |
| 2024 | June | +0.69 | +0.78 | +0.60 | +0.85 | +1.37 | +0.64 | +0.91 |
| 2024 | July | +0.74 | +0.86 | +0.61 | +0.97 | +0.44 | +0.56 | -0.07 |
| 2024 | Aug | +0.76 | +0.82 | +0.69 | +0.74 | +0.40 | +0.88 | +1.75 |
| 2024 | Sep | +0.81 | +1.04 | +0.58 | +0.82 | +1.31 | +1.48 | +0.98 |
| 2024 | Oct | +0.75 | +0.89 | +0.60 | +0.63 | +1.90 | +0.81 | +1.09 |
| 2024 | Nov | +0.64 | +0.87 | +0.41 | +0.53 | +1.12 | +0.79 | +1.00 |
| 2024 | Dec | +0.62 | +0.76 | +0.48 | +0.52 | +1.42 | +1.12 | +1.54 |
| 2025 | Jan | +0.45 | +0.70 | +0.21 | +0.24 | -1.06 | +0.74 | +0.48 |
| 2025 | Feb | +0.50 | +0.55 | +0.45 | +0.26 | +1.04 | +2.10 | +0.87 |
| 2025 | Mar | +0.57 | +0.74 | +0.41 | +0.40 | +1.24 | +1.23 | +1.20 |
| 2025 | Apr | +0.61 | +0.77 | +0.46 | +0.37 | +0.82 | +0.85 | +1.21 |
| 2025 | May | +0.50 | +0.45 | +0.55 | +0.30 | +0.15 | +0.75 | +0.99 |
| 2025 | June | +0.48 | +0.48 | +0.47 | +0.30 | +0.81 | +0.05 | +0.39 |
The full UAH Global Temperature Report, along with the LT global gridpoint anomaly image for June, 2025, and a more detailed analysis by John Christy, should be available within the next several days here.
The monthly anomalies for various regions for the four deep layers we monitor from satellites will be available in the next several days at the following locations:
Not a scientist here, just a weather enthusiast with a very dated education in weather and climate. A year or two ago, I marked up a copy of this chart noting major El Niño and La Niña events. For me, it explained the cyclical nature of the temperature graph. Last time I looked we were ENSO neutral, but since that phenomenon has a cyclical nature to it, it would not surprise me if we weren’t hading for a La Niña and slower increases.
As an aside, related to UHI, our NWS office – Wilmington, Ohio – noted several temperature records for June in Dayton, Ohio. Every one of them was a record LOW. I know it is anecdotal, but it seems to fit with the idea/theory that UHI is a very important factor in recent warming trends.
I am praying for you, Roy. With God’s grace you will get through this time. I really appreciate your work and how you are trying to make your contribution to a better world.
Second warmest June, beaten only by last year’s.
Year Anomaly
1 2024 0.69
2 2025 0.48
3 1998 0.44
4 2019 0.34
5 2023 0.30
6 2020 0.29
7 2016 0.21
8 1991 0.18
9 2010 0.18
10 2015 0.18
My projection for the year increases slightly to 0.50 +/- 0.12C, with it looking increasingly likely that 2025 will be warmer than 2023. But we will see.
Recent changes at the poles have had a major effect on CFSR data. It will be interesting to see where this goes. It could throw off your “projection” by a significant amount.
https://oz4caster.wordpress.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/07/d1-gfs-gta-daily-2025-07-02.gif
That’s why I said “We will see”.
I was going to mention the big drop in land temperatures as seen here
https://pulse.climate.copernicus.eu/
It certainly looks that much of South America has turned very cold. But I don’t know how much significance to put on 1 day.
And absolutely zero evidence of any human causation.
Bellman” I don’t know how much significance to put on 1 day.”
The CFSR data shows cooling over the last 6 months which has now reached 0.9 C. Much of that has occurred in the last week, so it could be a fluke. However, it’s unprecedented without volcanic or ENSO forcing.
“The CFSR data shows cooling over the last 6 months which has now reached 0.9 C.”
No, you need to compare at least whole months to the same months in previous year. Then you will see that compared to last year (the peak year for El Nino warming) the months have been ~ 0.1 C cooler.
Pretty normal.
Or …. we could see some major cooling.
https://oz4caster.wordpress.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/07/d1-gfs-gta-daily-2025-07-02.gif
Just weather. Antarctica has large variations this time of year.
” Recent changes at the poles have had a major effect on CFSR data. ”
Really?
https://drive.google.com/file/d/1KdsNhZb-8-lFt112o80zXrCPZL77FqS4/view
I based my comment on this graph.
https://oz4caster.wordpress.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/07/d2-gfs-grta-daily-2025-07-02.gif
Think this may be the first time UAH has hit a rate of +0.16C per decade warming for any period exceeding 360 months (30-years).
It’s been +0.16C/dec before a couple of times previously; once in the late 1990s and again in the early 2000s; but never before over a period spanning 30-years or more. (30-years being the standard period of reference in climatology, as far as I’m aware?)
Right, and by 2014 the trend had dropped to +0.11 C/decade. The trend line rises and falls.
“The trend line rises and falls.”
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Indeed, but where periods of 30-years (360 months) and more are concerned, this is the first time the UAH_TLT warming trend has surpassed +0.16 C per decade.
Also, taking only 30-year periods, of which there are now 200 in the UAH_TLT data (i.e. overlapping consecutive periods of 360 months each), the average trend is +0.13C/dec with a standard deviation of (+/-) 0.015C.
The 30-year periods ending over this past 3 months, (Apr-Jun 2025) have all had warming rates of +0.17C/dec; that is to say, more than 2 standard deviations above the long term average for 30-year periods.
These facts may not indicate a long-term acceleration in the UAH warming trend, but they are new high water marks in terms of the UAH warming rate for periods of, and exceeding, 30-years.
And that is the 46 year trend, and a significant increase in it over the last several years.
https://oz4caster.wordpress.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/07/d4-gfs-gta-daily-2014-2025-07-02.gif
Looks like CFSR is trending lower.
The 1877 spike continues to serve as a template. This is NOAA data through April. The next six months should be interesting.
https://localartist.org/media/HTvAkjsaENSO2504.png
Correction: NOAA data included May. I’ve added the UAH data through June.
https://localartist.org/media/HTvAkjsaENSO2506.png
Cool
In a previous thread, Wal~ter R. Hog~le (who now nicknames as ‘red krokodile) posted the following:
” Bindi is quick to generate inverse hockey sticks for Arctic sea ice and Rutgers’ Northern Hemisphere snow cover, ignoring key context, like the non stationary shifts that challenge IPCC assumptions in the former, and the seasonal divergence in the latter (with Northern Hemisphere autumn and winter snow cover increasing).
Yet when confronted with the fact that these kinds of shifts impact the signal to noise ratio, as in the case of the anomalous drop in cloud cover during 2023-24, he brushes it aside. When the signal is buried in noise, as it is here, it is simply not credible to claim detection of climate trends with the kind of precision he asserts.
This selective treatment of evidence mirrors climate denial. It is well established that climate deniers view science through the lens of their ideology rather than through objective inquiry. ”
*
This is really brazen. I never posted any ‘inverse hockey sticks about anything: this is a sheer lie. Hog~le polemically discredits what I do instead of technically contradicting it with charts proving he is right; he simpl,y is unable to do that.
*
1. Arctic sea ice
I reproduce either exactly the original G02135 data in absolute form containing the annual cycle:
https://drive.google.com/file/d/1u8Hd4Hpskx9mlKan8CloUHa4JEZk3v4L/view
or in anomaly form with annual cycle removal in the same manner as teached by Roy Spencer:
https://drive.google.com/file/d/1rRqY7uYkHEHYISJgMTt7lue-C8-JI2RI/view
**
2. Rutgers’ Northern Hemisphere snow cover
Same as above.
Original weekly data
https://drive.google.com/file/d/1ABBiug5c5lQ-rgL7Ijd8KjiTcNfGx9rR/view
Data with annual cycle removal
https://drive.google.com/file/d/1843ycyIsaTPuSjQRIIn88Zzo1es_zAmJ/view
*
If you show the data with a 52 week averaging, the decrease becomes even more apparent in both absolute and anomaly-based series.
**
3. Now let’s move to a carefully organized seasonal split of the weekly snow cover data:
https://drive.google.com/file/d/11UUojgTWCvomT5m_DKNp0dFU7APJhwfz/view
As we all can see, Hog~le’s claim (most likely carelessly copied without any verification from a pseudo-skeptical blog)
” … with Northern Hemisphere autumn and winter snow cover increasing ”
isn’t correct.
What is rather visible is that recently,
– winter time isn’t decreasing at all, and that
– autumn increases at the same rate as spring decreases.
*
Conversely, all his claims about the “key context,” especially about the “signal-to-noise ratio,” etc., as usual, lack any proven scientific basis.
I asked Hog~le for such a source; he could only provide me with three links to articles that didn’t even mention the points highlighted in bold above.
*
Germans would call Hog~le ‘dummdreister Schnösel’, i.e. a brazen snoop.
Bindi, did red krokodile correct you again? Is that why you’re so mad?
Have you noticed that you’re ALWAYS mad?
Maybe you’re just mad at reality….
Clint,
We tend to follow different corners of discussion on here, but I have noticed our impressions seem to overlap in a certain direction about you know who. Can’t help but think that says something. Curious if you see it the same way.
The tradition has been that the first day of a new post by Dr. Spencer should be restricted to rational comments without arguments and insults. You should show more respect.
“I never posted any ‘inverse hockey sticks about anything: this is a sheer lie.”
Yes, you did. Here:
https://drive.google.com/file/d/1ebdqPl_tmxazXAMchHEU87zVvvPdonef/view
https://www.drroyspencer.com/2025/03/hey-epa-why-not-regulate-water-vapor-emissions-while-you-are-at-it/#comment-1700872
“(most likely carelessly copied without any verification from a pseudo-skeptical blog)”
https://climate.rutgers.edu/snowcover/chart_seasonal.php?ui_set=nhland&ui_season=1
https://climate.rutgers.edu/snowcover/chart_seasonal.php?ui_set=nhland&ui_season=4
Rutgers University: a ‘pseudo skeptical blog,’ really, Bindidon? That is quite a dismissal for an institution known for rigorous work. One might expect at least a shred of evidence before such a sweeping judgment.
“winter time isn’t decreasing at all, and that
– autumn increases at the same rate as spring decreases.”
No, winter snow cover is increasing as shown above.
And why exactly do you think the autumn increase is “offset” by spring decreases?
That is such nonsense. More autumn snow cover over Siberia strengthens the Siberian High, which in turn enhances polar air advection into Eurasia later in the winter.
These are not abstract numbers you can cancel out on a spreadsheet. They are physically meaningful and seasonally asymmetric.
“he could only provide me with three links to articles that didn’t even mention the points highlighted in bold above.”
Yes, none of the papers explicitly claim the global signal to noise ratio changed two years ago. So what? The purpose of reading scientific research is not to find every conclusion spelled out. It is to understand the content, apply the insights, and draw logical extensions beyond what was directly studied.
Your entire comment is vacuous. You cannot respond to the evidence, so you resort to lazy speculation about who you think I am.
Arctic down to 0.05. Is that exceptional in recent years? Will a ”cold” Arctic affect the global temperature progress in any way? How and why?
Not exceptional. In the summer T is dominated by ice-water temperature ~ 0C.