Home/BlogThe Version 6.1 global average lower tropospheric temperature (LT) anomaly for September, 2025 was +0.53 deg. C departure from the 1991-2020 mean, up from the August, 2025 anomaly of +0.39 deg. C.
The Version 6.1 global area-averaged linear temperature trend (January 1979 through September 2025) remains at +0.16 deg/ C/decade (+0.22 C/decade over land, +0.13 C/decade over oceans).
The following table lists various regional Version 6.1 LT departures from the 30-year (1991-2020) average for the last 21 months (record highs are in red).
| YEAR | MO | GLOBE | NHEM. | SHEM. | TROPIC | USA48 | ARCTIC | AUST |
| 2024 | Jan | +0.80 | +1.02 | +0.58 | +1.20 | -0.19 | +0.40 | +1.12 |
| 2024 | Feb | +0.88 | +0.95 | +0.81 | +1.17 | +1.31 | +0.86 | +1.16 |
| 2024 | Mar | +0.88 | +0.96 | +0.80 | +1.26 | +0.22 | +1.05 | +1.34 |
| 2024 | Apr | +0.94 | +1.12 | +0.76 | +1.15 | +0.86 | +0.88 | +0.54 |
| 2024 | May | +0.78 | +0.77 | +0.78 | +1.20 | +0.05 | +0.20 | +0.53 |
| 2024 | June | +0.69 | +0.78 | +0.60 | +0.85 | +1.37 | +0.64 | +0.91 |
| 2024 | July | +0.74 | +0.86 | +0.61 | +0.97 | +0.44 | +0.56 | -0.07 |
| 2024 | Aug | +0.76 | +0.82 | +0.69 | +0.74 | +0.40 | +0.88 | +1.75 |
| 2024 | Sep | +0.81 | +1.04 | +0.58 | +0.82 | +1.31 | +1.48 | +0.98 |
| 2024 | Oct | +0.75 | +0.89 | +0.60 | +0.63 | +1.90 | +0.81 | +1.09 |
| 2024 | Nov | +0.64 | +0.87 | +0.41 | +0.53 | +1.12 | +0.79 | +1.00 |
| 2024 | Dec | +0.62 | +0.76 | +0.48 | +0.52 | +1.42 | +1.12 | +1.54 |
| 2025 | Jan | +0.45 | +0.70 | +0.21 | +0.24 | -1.06 | +0.74 | +0.48 |
| 2025 | Feb | +0.50 | +0.55 | +0.45 | +0.26 | +1.04 | +2.10 | +0.87 |
| 2025 | Mar | +0.57 | +0.74 | +0.41 | +0.40 | +1.24 | +1.23 | +1.20 |
| 2025 | Apr | +0.61 | +0.77 | +0.46 | +0.37 | +0.82 | +0.85 | +1.21 |
| 2025 | May | +0.50 | +0.45 | +0.55 | +0.30 | +0.15 | +0.75 | +0.99 |
| 2025 | June | +0.48 | +0.48 | +0.47 | +0.30 | +0.81 | +0.05 | +0.39 |
| 2025 | July | +0.36 | +0.49 | +0.23 | +0.45 | +0.32 | +0.40 | +0.53 |
| 2025 | Aug | +0.39 | +0.39 | +0.39 | +0.16 | -0.06 | +0.69 | +0.11 |
| 2025 | Sep | +0.53 | +0.56 | +0.49 | +0.35 | +0.38 | +0.77 | +0.32 |
The full UAH Global Temperature Report, along with the LT global gridpoint anomaly image for September, 2025, and a more detailed analysis by John Christy, should be available within the next several days here.
The monthly anomalies for various regions for the four deep layers we monitor from satellites will be available in the next several days at the following locations:
Warming goes on,
and Denying and Ignoring will goe on.
Same procedure as every month.
Richard M (last month):
“The change to the AMO cool phase is due soon.”
Oops. The latest value is the warmest in 5 months.
As far as I can tell, the AMO cool phase is overdue by about 40 years.
Third warmest September, though still a lot cooler than the previous two years.
Year Anomaly
1 2024 0.81
2 2023 0.80
3 2025 0.53
4 2019 0.44
5 2020 0.40
6 2017 0.39
7 2016 0.30
8 1998 0.28
9 2021 0.26
10= 2010 0.20
11= 2022 0.20
My projection for 2025 is now 0.475 +/- 0.068C, with a 90% chance that 2025 will be the 2nd warmest year on record.
Your projection for the year is spot on, Bellman, using the UAH satellite data. It’s more of a nip-and-tuck race between 2023 and 2025 for the second hottest year in the surface temperature data sets. 2023 has the edge in the NOAA-NCEI data set, while 2025 has a small edge in the NASA-GISS data. No matter how it’s measured, the last three years will be the three hottest years in the instrumented record, by quite a good margin.
As Roy noted the trend since the start is 0.16 deg/decade.
But the trend over the last 20 y is nearly double that, at 0.31 deg/decade.
The warming has accelerated.
True, but each and every deviation from a mean that takes place within a period of 30 years or less is part of the domain called ‘weather’. Nothing to do with climate right.
Yes, the trend is accelerating. The instantaneous rate of warming from a second order polynomial fit to the data is 0.27 deg/decade.
Called it 10 days ago (or so).
See https://oz4caster.wordpress.com/cfsr/.
It’s not controversial that the warming has accelerated since the ~1970s. It also decelerated (slightly) mid 20th century.
If there’s “settled” climate science, it’s the climate (temperature…) record of the last ~150 years. The global (AMO-like) pattern is supported by solid evidence.
Did Hunga Tonga erupt again?
Must have, lol!
September’s uptick could be best explained from good global albedo data, is such existed.
The new Monckton Pause extends to 30 months starting in 2023/04. The average of this pause is 0.62 C. The previous Monckton Pause started in 2014/06 and lasted 107 months and had an average of 0.21 C. That makes this pause 0.41 C higher than the previous one.
+0.156 +- 0.040 C.decade-1 k=2 is the trend from 1979/01 to 2025/09.
+0.027 +- 0.010 C.decade-2 k=2 is the acceleration of the trend.
My prediction for 2025 from the 2025/03 update was 0.43 +- 0.16 C k=2.
My prediction for 2025 from the 2025/04 update was 0.47 +- 0.14 C k=2.
My prediction for 2025 from the 2025/05 update was 0.46 +- 0.11 C k=2.
My prediction for 2025 from the 2025/06 update was 0.47 +- 0.10 C k=2.
My prediction for 2025 from the 2025/07 update was 0.46 +- 0.08 C k=2.
My prediction for 2025 from the 2025/08 update was 0.46 +- 0.06 C k=2.
My prediction for 2025 from the 2025/09 update is 0.48 +- 0.05 C k=2.
Time to sell your investment in LNG before the fashionable burtsts.
https://powering-the-planet.ghost.io/as-solar-dominates-the-sun-sets-on-the-lng-boom/?ref=powering-the-planet-newsletter