A Snowy Thanksgiving for NYC?

November 23rd, 2014 by Roy W. Spencer, Ph. D.

turkey-in-snow-smallIt is increasingly looking like New York City could have only its second white Thanksgiving in 75 years, the last being 25 years ago in 1989.

In fact, most of the major metropolitan areas along the I-95 corridor need to be watching the weather this week, especially if you have travel plans on Wednesday, which is when most of the snow is forecast to fall. It is still early, but the forecast models have been pretty consistent over the last couple days in forecasting this event.

After a new blast of cold air sweeps across the eastern U.S. early this week, an upper atmospheric disturbance just entering the Pacific Northwest today looks like it will phase up with a weak surface low pressure center in the southern Gulf of Mexico. The low will strengthen as it rapidly tracks up the coast, just offshore, with snow extending from portions of Georgia and the Carolinas northeastward to cover most coastal areas.

Several weather forecast model runs in a row now have been in general agreement, with the latest forecast snow amounts for the major metro areas being generally 4-6 inches or more (graphics from Weatherbell.com, updated from early morning Tuesday run):

GFS model forecast total snow accumulation by Thursday morning, Nov. 27, 2014 (early morning Tuesday model run)

GFS model forecast total snow accumulation by Thursday morning, Nov. 27, 2014 (early morning Tuesday model run)


43 Responses to “A Snowy Thanksgiving for NYC?”

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  1. Lance says:

    The GFS model also shows southwestern Alberta getting hit, and our forecast is for 15-25 cm of snow on or by Wednesday…will be interesting to see if this does arrive…in the mean time we are enjoying a nice Chinook.

    • six says:

      They canada be dum like peoples wont they are peoples? they be dummerest then a world of peoples who be dummer then dum. Laff off load.

  2. ren says:

    Dr. Roy Spencer here you can stay current on the galactic radius and pressure over the polar circle (the shape of the polar vortex). Currently visible two centers of low pressure in the stratosphere at an altitude of 15 km (100 hPa). Shift can be seen that facilitates the influx of Arctic air over America.
    http://sol.spacenvironment.net/raps_ops/current_files/rtimg/dose.15km.png

  3. Jane says:

    Nope, it’s going to rain in NYC on Thursday and be above freezing.

  4. Krusty says:

    Nope, this is the beginning of the new ice age. NYC should be covered with 5 feet of ice by Thanksgiving and another 50 feet by Christmas. 2 years from now that glacier should be a mile thick. All because of global warming of course.

    • stonehillady says:

      There is so much Global Warming we are going to have a Pole Shift, where the new Poles are going to be, nobody knows. Take that Al Gore.!

    • carlb says:

      i was think a mini one as they had in europe during the dark ages. i believe it alosted about 2 centuries. both will be non man made! lol

  5. John says:

    Remember we were never going to see snow again and kids
    would only know about snow from history books?
    What should happen is those people should be named by media
    Al Gore included to show they know nothing. Maybe if that was done they would worry that what they say is not just lost but does come back to make them look like fools.
    I remember Barbra Streisand saying how many Hurricanes we would have because Bush would not sign the Keoto treaty.
    So nothing happened no storms but she goes on and on and the media never says how wrong she was but keeps reporting what she says.

  6. Rex says:

    The colder it gets, the louder the LIEberals will scream their cLIEmatology nonsense…..like weather and climate being different, since they are synonyms

  7. jimc says:

    I’m just happy to not be the guy at the top of the page this week.

  8. Duke Sweden says:

    I remember going to my cousins in Rockland County, N.Y. for Thanksgiving in 1974. As I recall the tradition was to go to a movie after dinner. The four of us, my brother and I and our two cousins, went to see King Kong. When we got out of the theater there was 6″ of snow on the ground. We had to push the car home most of the way because we didn’t have the snow tires on yet and it was very hilly terrain. Awesome memory.

  9. Tom M says:

    Snow only 2 times in the last 75 years?, I remember it snowing in the late 60’s when my dad took me.

  10. carlb says:

    it’s supposed to be a white christmas not a white thanksgiving. lol

  11. HILLARY CLINTON says:

    Vote for me…I’ll carbon tax your butts to eternity on Christmas too

  12. Robert Austin says:

    That’s why Canadians celebrate Thankgiving in October. You just can’t trust November weather.

  13. Amy Soldier says:

    That was so funny I forgot to laugh.

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  14. mackykam says:

    I distinctly remember heavy snowflakes on the Henry Hudson Pkwy Thanksgiving 1958, as clearly as I remember only one level on the GWB. Or no Verrazano bridge to SI. I was 9 years old.

  15. JWEWMY says:

    DRUDGE REPORT IS FOR STUPID WHITE MEN.

    • Fonzarelli says:

      Stupid white men need to get their news from some where, don’t they?

      • Mark Luhman says:

        Fonzarelli I suspect you get yours from MSNBC or the MSM, I had a epiphany yesterday, in the past in England the sons of english Lords to stupid, were given a commissioned into the military or sent to the clergy. Many a English enlist man died due to that. I just wonder how many English men lost the immortal souls from the advice of those incompetent clergy. Well in this country we do something similar, instead the stupid of the elite in this country either end up in the Mainstream Media or as Democrat politicians The worst part is in not that we are losing wars, which are because of the above but we are losing our country because people like you listen to those morons.

        • Fonzarelli says:

          Mark, mine was intended as a sarcastic reply to JWEWMY’s stupid comment. (i guess i ended up looking like the stupid one here) My balloon comment was also laced with sarc while trying to make a point. I don’t think we want to make our surveillance society any more so than it already is (as your enlightening comments show). I don’t want to see drones every where taking pictures of every thing. As common place as such surveillance already may well be, we don’t want to make it all the more so with the acceptance of drones. (perhaps we have accepted too much already) Drones might be a good place to start the pushback… BTW, when I do get news I watch fox. Nothing political really, I just don’t feel comfortable watching cnn. It’s like they’re wearing their underwear too tight or something. They know how to relax a little over at fox and that makes for better viewing… (that and I feel like i’m always being lied to at the other networks)

        • Lewis says:

          Mark,

          Please try re-reading what you write before hitting the submit button.

          Merry Christmas!

    • otterwalks says:

      Must be Sock Puppet. If not, there is dire need of edification. It’s_Drudge_ mostly all links to MSM! Or are you saying See No News, Read No News, Hear no News? I suppose, like the automaton on the other end of the incoming phone line, your parameters are programmed. Yes?
      Really, that is about the most off topic, bottom of the barrel retort, I have Ever Seen.

  16. John F. Hultquist says:

    Roy,
    The WeatherBell map (GFS Model forecast) at the top says “hourly Accumulated Snowfall” while under the map there is “total snow accumulation by Thursday morning.”
    What is the meaning of the term “hourly” in this context?
    Thanks.
    John

  17. Fonzarelli says:

    Test one, two…

  18. TedM says:

    I’ve just read all the above comments. Lots of words, nothing said.

    It would be nice to stay on topic.

  19. ren says:

    Frosty weather front was surprised the entire northern United States. The unusually harsh weather in this part of the world is also convinced Polish crew transport Mamry, which contributed to the largest lake water freshwater USA – Michigan.
    http://dcs-188-64-86-14.atmcdn.pl/scale/o2/tvn/web-content/m/p5/v/e94f63f579e05cb49c05c2d050ead9c0/352ea7da-73ed-11e4-85a0-0025b511226e/S/000.jpg?type=1&quality=100&srcmode=3&srcx=1/2&srcy=0/1&srcw=632&srch=358&dstw=632&dsth=358

  20. Is this map a projection of raw snowfall, assuming a ratio of 10 inches of snow to 1 inch of water equivalent? It appears that in the major cities along I-95, some of that snow is partially melting to a higher density shortly before landing, and some of the flakes are melting completely from landing on above-freezing ground. It’s looking like about 1 inch in Washington DC, and about 2 inches in Baltimore, Philadelphia, NYC, and Boston. Northwestern suburbs are getting more, with 5 inches expected in many of them.

  21. ren says:

    Please see a strong increase in temperature in the stratosphere over the polar circle, correlated with a decrease in the magnetic solar activity.
    http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/stratosphere/strat-trop/gif_files/time_pres_TEMP_MEAN_OND_NH_2014.gif

  22. ren says:

    Can be seen the polar vortex persistently lock of the Bering Strait.
    http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/stratosphere/strat_a_f/gif_files/gfs_t100_nh_f00.gif