Sault, MI Receives 1 Month’s Snow in 1 Day

November 14th, 2014 by Roy W. Spencer, Ph. D.

Photo courtesy of the Sault Evening News.

Photo of snowstorm in progress Nov. 13, 2014, courtesy of the Sault Evening News.

For those who have been asking whether the unusually cold Great Lakes will reduce the amount of lake effect snow the region gets this winter, I think we just got the answer.

Not when a massive cold wave hits the U.S. so early in the season.

The current cold wave over the U.S. has dumped 2 to 4 feet of mostly lake-effect snow over scattered locations in Michigan’s Upper Peninsula. My home town of Sault Ste. Marie is waking up to 2 feet of new snow this morning, most of which fell yesterday. This is more than the average snowfall for the whole month of November, which is only 16 inches. The Ishpeming, Mi area has up to 3 feet on the ground this morning.

The amount of lake effect snow is a direct measure of how much heat is being lost by the Great Lakes. Two NOAA buoys in the middle of Lake Superior show that the water has already cooled to the magic value of 39 deg. F, the maximum density point for fresh water where the lake water begins to “turn over”. Last winter’s cold led to scattered reports of ice until almost July. I took the accompanying photo of lake shore ice on June 17 near Munising, MI.

Ice pile several feet thick on the south shore of Lake Superior, June 17, 2014.

Ice pile several feet thick on the south shore of Lake Superior, June 17, 2014.

For local residents hoping for a quick return to normal weather, the latest 10-day air mass temperature forecast animation shows any break in the frigid conditions is at least a week away. And since the Lakes are starting out so cold already, if this winter is anywhere close to being as cold as last winter, the Great Lakes could be in for record ice cover — again.

93 Responses to “Sault, MI Receives 1 Month’s Snow in 1 Day”

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  1. Bassman says:

    I just hope this pattern changes, I miss the winter of 2012. JMA is out for Oct, warmest on record by a large margin. NASA is also out at .76, tied with 2005 as the warmest on record. This pattern of colder land temps in NH might blunt Novembers temps. NASA will likely come in close to a tie for the year for warmest on record.

    • Gordon Robertson says:

      “NASA is also out at .76, tied with 2005 as the warmest on record”.

      Is that before the fudge factors are applied or afterward? The satellites show both 2014 and 2005 as being nothing remarkable.

  2. Peter Stroud says:

    You in the USA are suffering from seriously cold weather, as happened last year: we in the UK are suffering from heavy rain, again like last year. We await the warmists blaming AGW, as last year.

    • Sal says:

      Yes, any large storm, or drought, or flood is blamed on global warming. I remember Al Gore predicting an increase in hurricane frequency. Florida hasn’t had a serious hurricane in years. I admire the Brits for banning the showing of his film in schools since the film was chock full of inaccuracies.

    • Doug says:

      Here in Michigan we had rain almost everyday for the last month and a half. Then on November 10th I woke up to 6 inches of snow on the ground, 3 days later the lake I live on was frozen solid. As of today, I believe the ice is frozen for the winter. We have been having six months of snow on the ground for the last few years. Sometimes there will be measurable snow for 7 out of 12 months.

  3. Bassman says:

    Peter, do you think this jet stream is at all influenced by warming or loss of arctic sea ice.? I have a hard time with the Null hypothesis that AGW isn’t influencing the jet stream in any way.

    Also just to clarify it is very likely JMA and NOAA data sets will be warmest on record for 2014. NASA by a crude average of current monthly values gives an average of 66.4. 2005 and 2010 came in at 66 each. We will see what Nov and Dec bring.

    • John F. Hultquist says:

      The Sept. 2012 ice on the Arctic Ocean was the lowest in recent years.
      Was the weather pattern jet stream, and so on then very like the one you note today?
      I don’t keep these things in memory and don’t know how to find out.

      • Tina Stallings says:

        I read an article three years ago that said seabed warming in the Arctic was due to subterranean molten lava close to the seafloor. And I thought… I can heat water a whole lot faster on the stove than with a hair blow dryer.

    • H.B. Schmidt says:

      “I have a hard time with the Null hypothesis that AGW isnt influencing the jet stream in any way.”

      And taking a page from the CAGW/”denialists” argument book, just what portion of that jet stream change is (a) seasonal (b) attributable to AGW and (c) impending certain doom to humanity?

      That’s my beef. It’s as though every little thing happening in the world today is the result of a dreaded boogeyman – global warming, AKA climate change, AKA climate weirding – as opposed to looking at a longer term picture of the climate returning to what was considered normal from the 1950’s-80’s. None of these experts are giving a breakdown of HOW MUCH MORE “abnormal” these events are over what such an event would yield if not influenced by AGW.

      It’s cold and snowing across much of the northern U.S. Well surprise, it’s the middle of November. I’m in my early 40’s and for the first half of my life, cold and snow this time of year was the norm, not an “abnormality”. Alarmists look ridiculous with their claims of us killing the planet when the planet is far older, far more complex, and far more resilient than humanity as a species. We’re going back to “normal” before the rolling 30-year temperature average moved the needle to more temperate levels.

      • Jeff says:

        I say it’s the dreaded AGENDA that is driving these idiots. They can’t admit there are more volcanoes going at this time in history that may be causing disruptions in any particular hemisphere. Hot is the reason for cold Along with fudge the data, worry about the truth later………Hmmmmmmm sound like Gruber and the obamacare mess.

        • Bob DeMan says:

          I object to the term “denialists”. These egomaniacs think their data manipulated failure to forecast future temps or even replicate past temperatures deserves such status that non-agreement requires belittlement?? Hilarious.

        • Hawkeye says:

          Absolutely correct Jeff! Bravo to you for noticing this fact of life. Now, ask yourselves WHY this is a fact of life today? WHY are all volcano’s awake and majority are erupting or about to?? Think it has any connection to the massive amounts of methane plumes coming out of the ocean floors OR the enormous amounts of earthquakes happening globally every single day in the exact same area’s? These quakes happening every single day to some are like bulls-eyes on the map. What makes a volcano tick and erupt? We know molten lava is what comes out when it erupts and what else is made of molten lava and comes from the same place as volcanic lava does? Could it be the core of the earth ya think? Is that what “global warming” means? Kind of makes sense, hmmmm……..There lies your answer if you are awake like the volcano’s are!! After you figure that one out then take the next step and ask yourself how is it “parts” of the U.S. ONLY are cooling so extremely when HEAT “causes” molten lava to expand and rise up to be an eruption?? I wonder all too often these days if the chem trails all over the globe haven’t already damaged minds to the point they are un-able to reason due to aluminum contamination already in bedded in brains. Because this stuff is so easy to see and figure out yet all that is acknowledged is the propaganda with no cause to explain it. Jeff you are awake congrats to you and keep telling what you logically see. LOOK UP and WAKE UP. Blessings to all.

  4. Mac says:

    Roy, Maybe you or someone else has a photo of one of the many houses in the UP that have outside doors on the second floor with no stairs, so the occupants can still exit when the snow gets too deep for the first floor doors to function…

    • Amy says:

      So that’s what those odd doors are! We have a couple on our street. I never knew that’s what they could be used for, but it totally makes sense! I just thought they had a small 2nd story balcony. I’ll try and get a picture for you all. I’m in Sault Sainte Marie.

    • Eli says:

      Not uncommon for anyone who lives around the lakes. I’m 30-40mi inland here in Southern Ontario(Between London and Kitchener), and about half the houses we have in our town have doors on the second floor. What’s uncommon, we haven’t seen snow like that in a long time. My grandmother used to tell me stories of the same thing, she lived in Almonte, Ontario. That’s a stones throw away from Ottawa(about 30 min).

      Though there was a case just north of London, Ontario back 3-4 years ago where they got 8M(26ft) in two days from the lake squalls.

    • Madeleine says:

      Wow! We just bought our home last January and I always wondered why there was a door at the end of the second floor hallway going to seemingly nowhere.

  5. MaryAnne Shannon says:

    I live in Sault Ste. Marie Michigan (for some 30+ years now), and am in the Peach Corps in Malawi SubSaharan Africa teaching nursing at KCN with the Global Health SEED Program until July 2015. Our summer (hot and rainy season) is around the corner here…and as I stick to my office chair in this 90+F heat, I can tell you I miss the snow…. PCV MaryAnne P. Shannon

    • Gordon Robertson says:

      Mary Anne…does Sault Ste. Marie cover both sides of the border? I was there a while back, on my way to and from Montreal but I was in the Canadian Soo. I seem to recall the border was nearby.

  6. MaryAnne Shannon says:

    I live in Sault Ste. Marie Michigan (for some 30+ years now), and am in the Peace Corps in Malawi SubSaharan Africa teaching nursing at KCN with the Global Health SEED Program until July 2015. Our summer (hot and rainy season) is around the corner here…and as I stick to my office chair in this 90+F heat, I can tell you I miss the snow…. PCV MaryAnne P. Shannon

  7. Joe Bastardi @BigJoeBastardi
    NCEP reanalysis Sept 8th warmest. UAH satellite Sept 7th warmest. RSS 9th warmest,NOAA 1st warmest.
    Amazing isnt it

    An example of flawed data Baseman embraces.

    NOAA DATA is not to be trusted and most likely is being manipulated.

  8. The modern warm period is in the process of ending as has been evidenced by no further rise in temperatures for some 19 years.
    Data to follow.


    Prolonged minimum solar activity AP index 5.0 or less

    Warm AMO

    NEG QBO combined with low solar activity

    High latitude volcanic activity and typhoon activity

    Low Arctic Sea Ice least in importance This can easily be verified by examining the atmospheric circulation in the 1970′s which featured a similar jet stream pattern to today while Arctic Sea Ice values were above normal. So much for that argument.

  10. +.37c was the Oct temperature deviation according to reliable data which is satellite data.

  11. David A

    November 14, 2014 at 8:44 am

    The uptick is not over the land, and is not a record for the year, but a part of the year, and with the fact that SH sea ice near record high, NH snow, near record high, Great lakes ice about 10 F below normal, The ratio of very cold days to very hot days in the US in 2014 (so far) is second highest in a century and
    RSS and UAH anomalies about 1/2 of the 1998 anomalies, the claim of hottest year ever is not just pre mature, but simply wrong.


    I AGRRE 100%

    • Fonzarelli says:

      Salvatore, where did david post that one? I must say, he CAN surprise you. Every now and again he breaks from the norm. Right or wrong, i’ll always learn something from Appell…

      Dr. S., one of salvatore’s comments was a mistake. So that only counts ten… (smiley face)

  12. Dr. Spencer I would like to see a new product be develop which would show the percentage of the globe below freezing on a daily basis and how far from the norm is it.

    I think this would be a telling piece of data when evaluating the global climate.

  13. Roy Spencer says:

    Salvatore, PLEASE… 11 comments in a row?

  14. I got carried away. Sorry.

  15. RiHo08 says:

    I am surprised that none of the above comments mentioned the Tropical Cyclone Nuri which crashed through the Bering Straits and put a bulge into the Jet Stream such that the Arctic air began to cascade down the Northern Hemisphere, through Canada and into USA. Not only did the Cyclone bend the Jet Stream, it seems to have pushed Arctic Sea Ice towards the North Pole, and maybe out into the North Atlantic.

    Nick Stokes had developed and maintained a circular calendar representation of Arctic Sea Ice for this year 2014 as well as providing visuals for the last 13 years. What is very intriguing, he has a magnifying image whereby one can see just several days of sea ice. The bend downward in Arctic Sea Ice Extent coincides with the Typhoon hitting above the Bering Straits and is now recovering it march towards expanding Sea Ice Extent.

    Not only is this graphic representation interesting, Nick Stokes kindly provides other data that he keeps track of; i.e., where he gets his data.

    A very interesting source:

    • ren says:

      Cyclone Nuri went so high in the north, because the polar vortex is blocked on the eastern Siberia.

      • Jeff says:

        Oooohhh. First we are to worry about an unprecedented amount of hurricanes after Katrina which failed to materialize and now we are to worry about the winter hurricanes (polar vortex) problem coming our way. Plug the volcanoes going off and maybe someone would listen to your nonsense science of manipulated data. Krakatoa and Pintubo each put out in one day more that all the combined pollution from the Industrialized Revolution and you continue to say man’s contribution is causing this anomaly? 400 years vs one day of one volcano. Do you even realize how stupid that sounds?

  16. ren says:

    “Our previous study showed that the response of tropospheric pressure to variations of solar activity (SA) and
    galactic cosmic ray (GCR) fluxes reveals a regional structure determined by the positions of the main
    climatic atmospheric fronts, as well as it strongly depends on the epochs of the large-scale circulation
    [Veretenenko and Ogurtsov, 2012]. In the epochs of increasing intensity of the meridional circulation (the
    form C according to Vangengeim-Girs classification [Vangengeim, 1952; Girs, 1974]) an increase of GCR
    fluxes at minima of the 11-year cycle is accompanied by an intensification both of extratropical cyclones at
    Polar fronts of middle latitudes and Arctic anticyclones at high latitudes of the Northern hemisphere, as well
    as by a weakening of the equatorial trough at low latitudes. In the epochs of decreasing meridional
    circulation the troposphere response to SA/GCR variations reveals a similar regional structure, i.e., the
    regions of most pronounced effects are closely related to the climatic atmospheric fronts, but the sign of
    SA/GCR effects in these regions is opposite.
    It was also detected [Veretenenko and Ogurtsov, 2012] that the evolution of the meridional circulation
    is characterized by a roughly 60-year periodicity which, in turn, influences the sign of SA/GCR effects on
    troposphere pressure. Indeed, the reversals of the correlations between sea-level pressure at high latitudes
    and sunspot numbers occurred in the 1890s, the early 1920s, 1950s and the early 1980s and coincided well
    with the changes in the evolution of the C-type meridional circulation. Hence, the aim of this work is to
    study what processes may influence the evolution of the large-scale circulation and, then, the character of
    SA/GCR effects on troposphere pressure.”

  17. John Chandler says:

    I believe what is happening with the weather is far more than just global warming. From what I have read, sun spot activity is very strange, the Earth’s magnetic field is acting weird, and there are even reports of gravity diminishing in certain parts of Northern Canada. Clearly, we need to get non-political and expert scientists involved to get to the bottom of this all sooner than later. Weather changes of this magnitude and duration must be responded to.

  18. Joe O'Brien says:

    in August I visited Munising, MI. It’s the first time this Southern boy has been that far north. A very Beautiful place. The locals told me they average 180″ snow each winter. I cant comprehend that much snow! Here in Louisiana we only get about an inch once in a decade. that’s enough for me.

    • Fonzarelli says:

      Where y’at, Joe?! Here in new orleans we got 3 inches in ’08 and an inch or two the christmas before katrina. BTW, i’m from up north and it ain’t no where near enough snow for me…

  19. ROMAN FRENKEL says:

    quit overanalyzing the snow thru your politically warped brain, and pullout the snowboard!

  20. David Jay says:

    A Michigander… who knew?

    Huntsville is a long way from the Soo.

  21. MidWestMike says:

    Its Bushs fault. Didnt you get the memo from Al?

  22. Gary Meyers says:

    John Chandler says. “…and there are even reports of gravity diminishing in certain parts of Northern Canada….”. Really?

    • jimc says:

      Yes. Parts of Canada are subject to Michelle Os school lunch mandates resulting in a dramatic loss of its body mass. For Canada and global warming though, its counterproductive. You know: starve a cold (country), feed a (global) fever.

  23. Dude123 says:

    You have to understand this: the warmer it gets, the colder it is. The colder it is, the warmer it is. Repeat this 20 times every day.

  24. Michigander says:

    Hi — the photo caption should be corrected to read “Sault Ste. Marie Evening News,” the actual name of the town and the paper.

  25. John says:

    I watched this program and they blamed climate changed on colder weather in lower latitudes due the upper atmosphere was snaking around the globe instead of a neat circle.
    If the global Temperature did not rise upper atmosphere would not snake.
    If it remand the same the upper atmosphere would circle there fore the cold air would remand the arctic.
    One reason was that upper atmosphere was like river as temperature rises the upper atmosphere got lazy and started to snake.
    They were try explain why Britain was unusably cold during winter even those climate has warmed which is .37c by you on current trend or by them by another figure which be warmer than that I think.
    I do not believe in there theory would explain to me there thinking on this and yours.

  26. bassman says:

    In regards to the earlier comments about the jet stream, Im not claiming that any given weather event is caused by AGW. Im saying that in a world with more moisture & heat in the atmosphere and more open arctic ocean (mostly in the late summer and fall), weather is going to change is some form or another. Human land and agricultural influences are also going to play a major role. So yes, stating specifically how much AGW influences any drought or rainfall event is very difficult.

    What happens when we shift back into positive PDO conditions and surface temps begin to rise again. Right now it seems the oceans are buying us some extra time but it wont last forever. We may be shifting back to positive PDO right now.

    Also in response to an earlier comment i made on the previous thread about Roys posting, I will use different phrasing. I think Roy’s comments about climatologists not explaining/admitting about the roles of natural variations is unfair. I have been following dozens of studies over the last 2 years that have looked into quantifying the role oceans both in the warming of 80s and 90s and the slowdown post 2000. That is why I stated that his post was misleading (I will use more neutral language next time).

    Below is a free but new study (nothing that new in terms of research) that explains the hiatus in very clear terms. It discusses ocean heat content, surface warming and the PDO. I think it makes a very clear argument that the energy imbalance has been present throughout and that surface warming will continue (as it probably is right now).

    • dirtyharry says:

      Hey Al Gore go find another audience for you inconvenient lies.

    • Fonzarelli says:

      Nice to hear from you, bassman, as always you lend a lot of clarity… i DO hope in the future that you “use different phrasing”. Not that Dr. Spencer really cares (he knows your integrity by now), rather i’d hate to see you get hammered by the critcisms of other commenters needlessly like that. The Internet is a very unnatural medium which can’t be very healthy for anyone posting comments at a blog that’s peopled by those with a strongly opposing point of view. I don’t know about you, but when I get strongly criticized on a blog, i usually spend the next two days in bed curled up in the fetal position (and sucking my thumb!) In all seriousness, though, one should be mindful of just how unnatural the Internet really is and adjust accordingly…

      • Lewis says:

        The internet is very unnatural! I hadn’t considered it that way, but people’s behavior on it is similar to how they act in automobiles. As they are anonymous, at least in perception, their manners deteriorate according to the level of their basic moral compass.

    • Lewis says:

      Dear bassman,

      Let us pretend for argument’s sake, that what you believe about AGW is accurate. Ok, now what. P. Obama is set on reducing CO2 emissions from coal and oil, which effect will be to reduce economic growth in 3rd world countries to the negative effect of those who live there. Concurrently it will increase prices for all goods elsewhere. Beyond that effect, do we expect cooler temperatures – weather – climate? Why do we actually want these cooler temperatures? Personally, I have never seen corn or potatoes growing in a sheet of ice and snow. Does anything else grow there? Is it good for farming?

      Beyond that, do some people actually believe that man can control the weather by his actions or inactions? However, everything I read about weather leads me to believe we (those who study this) are still learning. Certainly we don’t have enough knowledge to pretend control. We do have enough knowledge to know we could be wrong. But again, why do some people want colder weather. Why do we want more glaciers and ice fields? What are they good for?

      The only problem I see is that humans have made the poor decision to build on flood plains and near the oceans. These are bad decisions which should not be a reason to want the rest of the world to be colder.

      In addition to that there is the liberal/progressive lack of good sense. When VP Cheney said not to rebuild New Orleans – that was a rational response to a serious situation. Yet the leftists responded that his was a bad idea. What??? For them it is better to try to control the weather than respond rationally to what is going to happen if the oceans rise another 2 or 3 feet?

      If the AGW crowd was alive 20,000 years ago, when the oceans were 250 +/- a few dozen feet lower, would they have attempted to keep us there? What is it about today’s ocean levels and climate that makes them think these are optimum? Personally, I’d prefer a longer growing season. I like to eat fresh vegetables from my garden. (I live in NC piedmont)

      I leave you with this – it is not in man’s ability to control the weather anymore than he can control earthquakes, volcanoes or solar flares. He can but do his best to adapt to the conditions he is dealt. Wasting time and energy on esoteric ideals and wistful thinking will not improve his plight, but will, in fact, harm his ability to survive.

      But if you believe otherwise, I pity the virgins of your community. Have we not evolved from when sacrifices were offered to the god’s to atone for our misbehavior or to ask for their good graces? It seems the answer is no.

    • Norman says:


      The only problem with the current narrative of the arctic amplification (about 2C) causing deeper waves in the Rossby waves hence more severe weather (hotter, colder, more intense droughts and greater rainfall) is that it is opposite of reality.

      Note the bottom graphic. In summer there are no deep ridges in the Rossby waves. They develop more in the winter with the greater temperature gradient.

      The following information from this link:

      “Rossby waves are more vigorous in winter than in summer. They exhibit fewer waves of longer length and greater amplitudes in winter than in summer. This is because of sharp temperature contrast, and therefore strong north-south pressure gradient in winter.”

      Also it is a question of degree of change. If you pour a boiling pot of water in a bathtub the person taking a bath will easily notice the change. If you pour a boiling point of water in a swimming pool it will have an effect but will it be noticeable?

      A 2C difference in temperature does not change air density much. Air density is what determines pressure and what drives weather systems. How much difference is 2 C really making on the jet stream flow when the overall differential between upper Canada and the tropics is around 50 C. The main driver of the pressure gradient is 25 times greater than the arctic amplification yet I am to believe that this small change is drastically changing the waviness of the jet stream?

  27. Ali Von Goldberg says:

    Scientists report arctic and antarctic ice is growing. So much for the scam of global warming or climate change.

  28. me says:

    No one finds it strange that a whole month of snow falls in one day? Just more unnatural weather because of the weak magnetic field over the Western Hemisphere and the Earth’s poles being in the process of trying to flip which has been causing all this crazy heat and this crazy cold and storms, not man-made global warming as some would like you to think. I live in S Carolina and I ran my air conditioner all night last night. We would love to see some chillier temperatures here. It seems like we’ve had 3 years of continuous summer in a row.

  29. me - researcher says:

    Sorry, I hadn’t read all the comments here. This article is posted on Drudge where they are using these cold-weather stories to debunk AGW claims. But they also act like nothing is out of the ordinary with the cold weather. You guys already know what’s up. My apologies. Also it’s refreshing to see some insightful and intelligent comments on the subject other than just global-warming-bashing with no insight like one usually finds on a story linked to from Drudgereport. You guys have done way more research than I have. 🙂

  30. Rick A Hyatt says:

    It’s Bush’s fault.
    There’s no climate change, it’s really weather weapons. That’s why the rest of the media hype these days if full of “The Sky is falling!” to keep you distracted from the truth.

  31. ren says:

    “The results of this study showed that the evolution of the stratospheric polar vortex plays an important part in
    the mechanism of solar-climatic links. The vortex strength reveals a roughly 60-year periodicity influencing
    the large-scale atmospheric circulation and the sign of SA/GCR effects on the development of baric systems
    at middle and high latitudes. The vortex location is favorable for the mechanisms of solar activity influence
    on the troposphere circulation involving variations of different agents (GCR intensity, UV fluxes). In the
    periods of a strong vortex changes of the vortex intensity associated with solar activity phenomena seem to
    affect temperature contrasts in tropospheric frontal zones and the development of extratropical cyclogenesis.”

  32. ren says:

    Unfortunately, the inhibition of the polar vortex over eastern Siberia is a permanent phenomenon.
    Forecast on 19/11/14. The stratosphere about 27 km.,77.35,429
    It can be seen that the distribution of ozone over the Arctic Circle does not change much. The pattern of was formed in September and October.

  33. My only comment for today is Ren thanks for the great information.

    Baseman, all of my post yesterday were for your benefit.

    You should read them

  34. brian says:

    The entire story needs to be amended. Its not “Sault.” Its “Sault Ste. Marie.”

  35. Mike says:

    good thing we have global warming or it would be even colder!

  36. Anything is possible says:

    First ice of the winter forming on the northern shore of Lake Superior :

    Another 10-15 cm of snow forecast for the Sault Ste Marie area :,%20Canada&wuSelect=WEATHER

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