Home/BlogIn the context of climate change, is what we are seeing in Houston a new level of disaster which is becoming more common?
The flood disaster unfolding in Houston is certainly very unusual. But so are other natural weather disasters, which have always occurred and always will occur.
(By the way, making naturally-occurring severe weather seem unnatural is a favorite tactic of Al Gore, whose new movie & book An Inconvenient Sequel [ currently #21,168 in Kindle] is dismantled in my new e-book, An Inconvenient Deception [currently #399]).
Floods aren’t just due to weather
Major floods are difficult to compare throughout history because the ways in which we alter the landscape. For example, as cities like Houston expand over the years, soil is covered up by roads, parking lots, and buildings, with water rapidly draining off rather than soaking into the soil. The population of Houston is now ten times what it was in the 1920s. The Houston metroplex area has expanded greatly and the water drainage is basically in the direction of downtown Houston.
There have been many flood disasters in the Houston area, even dating to the mid-1800s when the population was very low. In December of 1935 a massive flood occurred in the downtown area as the water level height measured at Buffalo Bayou in Houston topped out at 54.4 feet.
Downtown Houston flood of 1935.
By way of comparison, as of 6:30 a.m. this (Monday) morning, the water level in the same location is at 38 feet, which is still 16 feet lower than in 1935. I’m sure that will continue to rise.
Are the rainfall totals unprecedented?
Even that question is difficult to answer. The exact same tropical system moving at, say, 15 mph might have produced the same total amount of rain, but it would have been spread over a wide area, maybe many states, with no flooding disaster. This is usually what happens with landfalling hurricanes.
Instead, Harvey stalled after it came ashore and so all of the rain has been concentrated in a relatively small portion of Texas around the Houston area. In both cases, the atmosphere produced the same amount of rain, but where the rain lands is very different. People like those in the Houston area don’t want all of the rain to land on them.
There is no aspect of global warming theory that says rain systems are going to be moving slower, as we are seeing in Texas. This is just the luck of the draw. Sometimes weather systems stall, and that sucks if you are caught under one. The same is true of high pressure areas; when they stall, a drought results.
Even with the system stalling, the greatest multi-day rainfall total as of 3 9 a.m. this Monday morning is just over 30 39.7 inches, with many locations recording over 20 inches. We should recall that Tropical Storm Claudette in 1979 (a much smaller and weaker system than Harvey) produced a 43 inch rainfall total in only 24 hours in Houston.
Was Harvey unprecedented in intensity?
In this case, we didn’t have just a tropical storm like Claudette, but a major hurricane, which covered a much larger area with heavy rain. Roger Pielke Jr. has pointed out that the U.S. has had only four Category 4 (or stronger) hurricane strikes since 1970, but in about the same number of years preceding 1970 there were 14 strikes. So we can’t say that we are experiencing more intense hurricanes in recent decades.
Going back even earlier, a Category 4 hurricane struck Galveston in 1900, killing between 6,000 and 12,000 people. That was the greatest natural disaster in U.S. history.
And don’t forget, we just went through an unprecedented length of time – almost 12 years – without a major hurricane (Cat 3 or stronger) making landfall in the U.S.
So what makes this event unprecedented?
The National Weather Service has termed the event unfolding in the Houston area as unprecedented. I’m not sure why. I suspect in terms of damage and number of people affected, that will be the case. But the primary reason won’t be because this was an unprecedented meteorological event.
If we are talking about the 100 years or so that we have rainfall records, then it might be that southeast Texas hasn’t seen this much total rain fall over a fairly wide area. At this point it doesn’t look like any rain gage locations will break the record for total 24 hour rainfall in Texas, or possibly even for storm total rainfall, but to have so large an area having over 20 inches is very unusual.
They will break records for their individual gage locations, but that’s the kind of record that is routinely broken somewhere anyway, like record high and low temperatures.
In any case, I’d be surprised if such a meteorological event didn’t happen in centuries past in this area, before we were measuring them.
And don’t pay attention to claims of 500 year flood events, which most hydrologists dislike because we don’t have enough measurements over time to determine such things, especially when they also depend on our altering of the landscape over time.
Bill Read, a former director of the National Hurricane Center was asked by a CNN news anchor whether he thought that Harvey was made worse because of global warming. Read’s response was basically, No.
“Unprecedented” doesn’t necessarily mean it represents a new normal. It can just be a rare combination of events. In 2005 the U.S. was struck by many strong hurricanes, and the NHC even ran out of names to give all of the tropical storms. Then we went almost 12 years without a major (Cat 3 or stronger) hurricane strike.
Weird stuff happens.
I remember many years ago in one of the NWS annual summaries of lightning deaths there was a golfer who was struck by lightning. While an ambulance transported the man to the hospital, the ambulance was stuck by lightning and it finished the poor fellow off.
There is coastal lake sediment evidence of catastrophic hurricanes which struck the Florida panhandle over 1,000 years ago, events which became less frequent in the most recent 1,000 years.
Weather disasters happen, with or without the help of humans.
2 day of no hurricane drought over land.
Its now 2 days without no hurricane over land.
The empirical data in the article shows the flooding of Houston/Buffalo Bayou far exceeding today’s flooding.
Climate change or just climate?
The climate is warming due to the trend of our most recent Ice Age warming…
Pinning this on human causes is like pinning the tail on the unicorn named Gore.
Gulf temp anomalies today are 0 – +1 on collection data from 1985 to this date.
http://www.surf-forecast.com/breaks/Destin/seatemp
My seawall (Florida Panhandle) has not seen a change in its High Tide water mark since installed in 1956.
Your location must be an anomaly, just like Hillary Clinton’s failed presidential loss was an anomaly, right. Houston’s impermeable expanses and flat topography caused the flooding, a stalled storm caused the intense rainfall…. so yes, what happened in Houston was a result of man made changes to our planet, but had nothing to do with purported climate change bullshit that’s being shoved down everybody’s throats !
https://chicroof.com/
https://modernbam.com/
https://nabex.net/%d9%be%d8%b1%d9%81%da%a9%d8%aa-%d9%85%d8%a7%d9%86%db%8c/
“Sometimes weather systems stall, and that sucks if you are caught under one.”
THIS STATEMENT WOULD NOT COME FROM A SCIENTIST. THINGS DON’T JUST “SOMETIMES” HAPPEN. THERE IS A REASON.
“They will break records for their individual gage locations, but thats the kind of record that is routinely broken somewhere anyway, like record high and low temperatures.”
ANOTHER RIDICULOUS STATEMENT BY THE AUTHOR.
RECORDS ARE ALWAYS BROKEN??? IS THAT YOUR EXPLANATION?? WHERE IS THE SCIENCE FROM THIS SO CALLED SCIENTIST
“Bill Read, a former director of the National Hurricane Center was asked by a CNN news anchor whether he thought that Harvey was made worse because of global warming. Reads response was basically, No.”
FUNNY HOW THE AUTHOR CLAIMS THAT WE DON’T KNOW ENOUGH TO A MAKE FIRM STATEMENTS ABOUT DAILY CLIMATE EVENTS YET HE QUOTES SOMEONE WHO CATEGORICALLY MAKES A CLAIM OF “NO”
“Weird stuff happens.
”
I REST MY CASE THAT THE AUTHOR IS A FRAUD
The last 50 years or so have seen real evidence come to light that random mutation and “natural selection are incapable of building complexity. Observation of malaria, E. coli and HIV, all of which exist in vast numbers and have short life cycles, have shown that while ‘Darwinian’ processes can cause minor changes, always involving a loss of complexity, they cannot build complexity nor can they begin to explain where the proteins and genes came from in the first place. Again, the Bible has said all along that life was originally created and has ever since reproduced ‘after its kind’
OH- AND IF YOU ARE NOT CONVINCED- SPENCER ALSO DOES NOT BELIEVE IN EVOLUTION
Read up on Francis Crick’s chaos theory of evolution…if you can pull your ego inflated head out of the rubbish text you use for personal guidance….better books are available at the supermarket checkout aisle !
larry teig says:
“…have shown that while Darwinian processes can cause minor changes, always involving a loss of complexity, they cannot build complexity nor can they begin to explain where the proteins and genes came from in the first place.”
And just who built “god,” who is claimed to be vastly more complex than any species here on Earth?
Try breathing into a paper bag for a minute, Larry.
Larry,
The evolution statement, is that a quote from Roy Spencer? Where from?
So a scientist (yes he is a scientist) goes against the party line of AGW and you freak out? What is your background? What is your PHD in? What scientific work have you completed? Was it pier reviewed? If you intend to criticize an actual scientist you need to be able to prove your background.
It would have been pier reviewed but the pier washed away in the flood.
Hahaha a grammar corrector, nice input to the conversation Dr. Dictionary…there’s one I every thread!
You’re obviously not a scientist. There are obviously reasons for everything happening, but if you identify why things happen then “they just happen”.
Do you have any idea how the world actually works? You are not Newtonian, are you, who expects that every movement of every molecule that was created after the Big Bang started cooling, if known, could show the past and lay out the future?
For crying out loud, temperatures and storms and all these things, when used to show trends, ARE MEDIANS or other statistical constructs. The real world actually does have random events. The author even spells out some of those events with real statistics!
Thus proclaims a true believer and priest ordained by the global warming religion.
Weather is a chaotic system with essentially random currents and eddies. It is not a determinant system. Therefore, yes, stuff just does “sometimes” happen.
https://nabex.net/
The only thing we know for sure about global warming’s effect on hurricanes is that the ocean water is warmer, making more moisture and energy available to storms that have already formed. The gulf is currently about 3 F warmer than usual. This is undeniable.
This likely means more rain and more strength than otherwise. But it seems that predicting paths and hurricane numbers is inherently difficult.
yes, warm waters will, on average, cause more evaporation. In the long term, averaged over the whole Earth, that extra evaporation must be almost exactly matched by more precipitation. But we are talking several percent, probably a small effect in the context of the current situation in Texas.
More rain means more water vapour condensed high in the atmosphere were the energy is freely radiated to space. Rain is a part of the thermal pump which contributes very efficiently to cool the surface of the earth.
I read that hurricanes cannot be sustained unless water temps are > 26 C. The temps in the gulf are 30C. Hurricane strength seems, therefore, to be a very nonlinear function of ocean temp.
It’s not absolute temperature, but temperature differentials, gradients, that drive storm intensity.
Bart is correct, difference potential drives ALL weather.
Said noted hurricane expert, bart.
A meteorologist tells me Bart is correct.
Have some sort of article? There are research papers showing strength water temp correlation.
Ted, citation?
Any basic thermodynamics text.
Actually all thermo tells us is the temp difference relates to engine efficiency , not power. Power will also depend on the the rate of heat flow into the engine. Here determined by the rate of water vapor sucked in.
Mmm… no.
MMMMm, as usual, you are wrong.
Your car’s engine goes from idling to 200 hp.
Is it a higher delta T that caused the increase?
“Is it a higher delta T that caused the increase?”
Yes.
‘Yes’ Bart has no facts again.
It’s very basic stuff, Nate. This is how heat engines work. You can put all the fuel in that cylinder you like, but if it doesn’t ignite, creating a temperature (hence pressure) differential with the external atmosphere, the engine doesn’t do anything.
Irrelevancies to support stupidities.
Fuel is ignited over full range of power.
Gas pedal is appropriately named.
You are embarrassing yourself.
Alright, then you tell me how you think pushing the gas pedal is increasing the power output of the engine.
You seem to have misconceptions, about the fact that it is the Rate of fuel flow (and thereby, heat flux) that is the main control knob on the power output of the engine. The fuel is being burned in all cases.
Similarly so with a hurricane, except the fuel is water vapor. And warmer water makes more available, as every meteorologist has made clear this week.
It’s ΔT that drives the engine not T.
Good explanation of heat flow in hurricane here:
http://www.aoml.noaa.gov/hrd/hrd_sub/dynamics.html
The Delta T seems to between ocean surface and 16 km up in atmosphere, where temp quite cold, -70C.
Yes,
In hurricane DELTA T is between ocean surface and atmosphere, specifically the point high in the atmosphere where vapor condenses. Not obvious that this condensation temp is warmer than in the past.
The hurricane engines POWER is clearly not linearly related to Delta T, Hurricane dynamics are complex.
Again, no.
Again Bart spouts BS.
There were hurricanes in the cooling spell of the 60s, several cat4s.
There were more hurricanes period between the cooler 1960s and 2005 to 2017
There is your absolute temp non linear argument utterly discredited.
Mark,
I would be cautious about interpreting anecdotal evidence (such as there were several Cat4s), it is not as valuable as statistical data for discrediting an idea.
We have hurricanes that dont make landfall. When all are included, there does seem to have been an increase in hurricane strength over time, but not number.
http://wind.mit.edu/~emanuel/anthro2.htm
Here’s another relevant link — which Ryan Maue needs to update:
http://policlimate.com/tropical/north_atlantic_hurricane.png
Oceans are warmed by sunlight and underwater volcanic activity, not the atmosphere. So ocean warming cannot be caused by humans, i.e. atmospheric warming. Oceans have many times the energy content of the atmosphere and so they serve to warm or cool the atmosphere, not the other way around.
Thermo be damned, huh? But thats a whole other kettle of fish..
Nate,
Thermo: The warmer oceans heat the cooler atmosphere. It’s called the Second Law of Thermodynamics.
Then why is the ocean gaining huge amounts of heat?
http://tinyurl.com/jbf2xco
http://www.drroyspencer.com/2017/08/why-houston-flooding-isnt-a-sign-of-climate-change/#comment-260165
Sorry DA. Not going to discuss the issue with you since you distort and redefine the laws of thermodynamics.
SgW: I accept your surrender.
Have you heard the latest scientific report that CO2 escaping from the ocean bottom is actually causing the ocean temperature near the North Pole to drop? Probably not…..was published to deaf eared media, Breitbart picked it up, but it sounds like you aren’t into having your new delivered without being filtered through the liberal press
Sure, but less heat loss when atmosphere is warm.
The atmosphere cannot regulate ocean temp, it affects SST.
When there are two systems connected, with one having far more heat than hte other, the weaker heated system cannot regulate hte heat in the system with orders of magnitude more heat.
Otherwise heatsinks would not need fans to overcome the density problem in heat regulation.
Case in point. If the oceans froze, the land would be glacier, all of it
‘When there are two systems connected’
There is a third much larger reservoir of heat that is relevant here –space.
Access to this very cold 3rd reservoir is controlled by the atmosphere’s conductive or insulating properties.
Nate,
Outer space has no temperature.
Oh but it does…3 kelvin. That is temp of radiation.
We are talking outer space, not radiation. There is no temperature in outer space. One needs molecules, or matter for something to have a temp. You are confused, as usual.
Skeptic. Look it up.
Heat transfered to and from space through radiation. Space has a temp in its radiation left over from glowing Matter after Big Bang, which radio astronomers deal with all the time.
Nate,
You are confused about electromagnetic radiation. It has no temperature. Outer space is not some blackbody with a temperature.
Where outer space begins at the top of atmosphere, tsi is about 1367 w/m2. We don’t say that outer space at the TOA is 121 degrees C (the effective blackbody temperature for 1367 W/m2), do we? No. Same thing with CBR (cosmic background radiation).
Skeptic, the Sun is black body @ 6000K. Its radiation is not a black body. You are quite determined to misunderstand.
Space radiates just as bb would at 3K. That is all we need to understand that it is much much colder than Earth, and it returns little radiation to Earth, but accepts nearly all of what Earth radiates.
“There are a number of ways to attack this poor reasoning”: http://volcano.oregonstate.edu/deep-sea-volcanoes-and-ocean-warming-reprint
Ocean heat content does not really show the so called effects of volcanic eruptions.
Volcanoes are overplayed, to explain cooling spells that the oceans (and possibly clouds) actually brought on.
That may not be apt and accurate.
Anomalies along Harvey’s path appear to have been between 0C and 1C ( 0F and 1.8F )
https://www.esrl.noaa.gov/psd/map/images/sst/sst.anom.gif
http://www.ospo.noaa.gov/data/sst/anomaly/2017/anomw.8.21.2017.gif
There was a warm pool very near the coast that probably explains most of the intensification. But do reflect that’s spatially warmer. The air within Harvey was relatively cool compared to the warm pool, so this enhanced instability.
Now reflect that AGW is supposed to exhibit a ‘hot spot’ ( which doesn’t show up ). A hot spot would INHIBIT convection.
So in a sense, AGW should lead to less intense or fewer hurricanes.
The hot spot has not appeared in the satellite era, so the meaning is yet to resolve.
Interesting. The graphics show only slightly anomalous conditions in the Gulf. The conventional wisdom has been that Gulf temperatures were unusually warm.
warm sst in gulf sst is not “unusual”.
ugh..
What do the data say?
Here are anomalies for various dates
http://www.ospo.noaa.gov/Products/ocean/sst/anomaly/index.html
Select Caribbean to zoom in on Gulf. Anomalies ~ 1C
Interesting to compare Gulf on 8/21, 8/24, and 8/28, before and after Harvey.
Are the ocean waters that much warmer already? we can barely measure any sustained warming during the last 17 years in the air!
Changes in ocean heat content:
http://tinyurl.com/jbf2xco
Just hundredths of degrees equivalent.
….especially when using flawed, usually biased data that you’re citing
I once had a comment published over at Climate Audit that pointed out that the probability distribution of large landfalling hurricanes is Poisson. Using Pielke’s numbers the expected average number of hurricanes is (14+4)/2 = 9 in a 46 year interval. The expected one sigma fluctuation is +- 3. In other words, there’s really nothing unusual in the number of landfalling hurricanes, just statitical fluctuations up and down.
Paul,
Thank you for that well-grounded comment. Why do so many meteorologists and climate scientists describe weather events as if statistics was never invented? My favorite: “It’s catastrophic, unprecedented, epic” by NWS meteorologist Patrick Blood. No ink for discussing probability, standard deviations, etc!
Are there tabulations of rainfall events in terms of gallons, with which to compare this? “around 25 trillion gallons may be the final statewide rainfall total for Harvey, which is such a unique storm due to its slow-moving nature that the NWS has nearly run out of superlatives describing it.”
http://mashable.com/2017/08/27/harvey-dumps-11-trillion-gallons-water-houston-flood/
“Biggest ever” would be more meaningful if the second biggest was mentioned (perhaps ruining the biblical narrative is the increment is small).
Some of this is Princess Bride-level failure. Michael Lowry at UCAR: “There is a national disaster unfolding in Texas right now. The scale and scope is unimaginable.” That word doesn’t mean what he thinks it means.
https://twitter.com/MichaelRLowry/status/901790189445672960
This is much like during the 2015-16 El Nino, where the descriptions quickly became almost insane: the super monster Godzilla El Nino.
It can’t be good for these professions that they gush like film starlets seeking their 15 minutes.
They’re selling agitation and fear – it’s good for advertising dollars.
Don’t watch TV. You’ll calm right down.
“They will break records for their individual gage locations, but thats the kind of record that is routinely broken somewhere anyway,like record high and low temperatures.” My understanding is that over the past few decades, high temperature records outnumber low by about 3-1. By itself that is some sort of record. Correct me if I am wrong, please.
More like 2-1, I stand corrected. http://www.climatecentral.org/gallery/graphics/record-highs-vs-record-lows
Not surprised, since we’ve been in a warm period and the urban heat island (UHI) effect is probably still in the thermometer data (it cannot be removed by homogenization procedures because it looks like gradual global warming, and occurs for all but the most pristine thermometer sites).
That’s a fairly misleading statistic. It obscures the absolute change in highs and lows.
Say that in the beginning, there were 10 low records and 10 high records for a ratio of 1.
Then, there were 0 low records and 1 high record.
The ratio would be infinite, but there would be fewer, not more high records.
For consistent stations within the USHCN, the all time record high for nearly three fourths of stations occurred in the first half of the record:
https://turbulenteddies.files.wordpress.com/2016/12/ushcn_conus_tmax_1905_2014_por_high_tmax.png
You can see this in On the Decrease of Hot Days in the US
I found the same thing in the spatially analyzed monthly data was well in On the Decrease of Hot and Cold Months in the US
The questions you have to ask and be able to answer are these:
1) “What is the correct temperature of the earth supposed to be?”
2) “How do you know your answer to question 1 is correct?”
(credit to Ivar Giaever, Physicist & Nobel Prize winner)
If you can’t answer that question you can’t know if the the warming (or cooling) trend the earth is currently showing is a true deviation from the norm and a swing back to the norm.
Hence this whole climate change thingy is just a money grab.
There is no “correct temperature” for the Earth — there is only the temperature species have adapted to.
Having to adapt to a new climate is stressful to species — especially to the nearly unprecedented rate of climate change now taking place. In the past, many species have gone extinct when facing climate change. And that was before all the other barriers mankind is placing in the way of nonhuman species.
PS: Ivar Giaever is a climate change crank who doesn’t know what he’s talking about wrt climate science.
David you say “especially to the nearly unprecedented rate of climate change now taking place.” how do you know that? Have you been around the last few million years, you statement is unknowable. We don’t know what we are measuring let along it what were are measuring anything of value. Get back to me say in a few thousand years, at that point mankind might have the answer. I know very well mankind doesn’t and you don’t know if you statement is true, you might believe it but you don’t know if it is a fact. All we have is a bunch of measurements take as a whole they are red noise and you cannot get a signal out of red noise. If you think you can fine believe what you want but don’t spout BS and thing the rest of us are going to believe it. The climate temperature has change a lot in the last 100,000 there are complete ecosystem that now exist in place that had a covered by a mile of ice less than twenty thousand years ago. Somehow those animals plants adapted fairly well. When the northern hemisphere glaciers disappeared that was some warming making today warming look like an ant hill compared to a mountain of warming that allowed those glaciers to melt.
“Unprecedented” means “we are ready to blame Trump.”
The usefulness of the pseudo science of ‘global warming” is politicians can deflect attention away from their incompetence.
Any kind of flood is dangerous and a city flood control should priority for politicians. Obviously, they failed.
I think of myself as libertarian, but not generally in favor of the private sector doing things like flood control. But it’s important and perhaps the politician are incapable of focusing on the things they should be focused.
The problem with private sector doing such things, is what does it leave for politicians to be doing- and it could encourage them to pretend to want to more things that they shouldn’t be controlling [badly].
There is no city which has a flood control plan for 40″ of rainfall. No where. No how.
Actually there is, we have it. It costs on average 25 dollar per month per person.
So about 6 billion dollar per million people?
Sounds expensive, but for a government not bad, if it worked, and if could handle worst case for say Houston, 60′ inches in 5 days.
Obviously one still could get some flooded streets, but 12 hours after, your streets should clear.
Of course one should also have emergency road system, which handle emergencies of system failing or more rain or flood water than for worst case.
Of course Houston will spend more money not having such a system.
Well it creates jobs and keeps our feet dry.
We have a special autonomous democratic government for that called “het Hoogheemraadschap”. This money can only be spend on water management.
Excellent much needed explanation. Thanks.
It would be interesting to see the % change in impervious surface coverage in the Houston metro area today vs. The early 1900’s.
I recorded a 6″ rainfall in a 1.5 hr period this Saturday in Bradenton Fl. on the way to a 12″ total in 24 hrs. from a low pressure trough over the state. Things do happen chaotically sometimes.
I wish those affected in Houston all the best for a quick recovery from this disastrous situation.
Check Cantore’s twitter feed from yesterday. He retweeted one such comparison (to the 40s). If true (and I suspect yes) it is staggering.
Hopefully one of these shows up.
I suspect the same thing globally, though haven’t plotted the data.
Means more flooding.
Also means more precip runs off instead of finding the water table – a factor in sea level rise?
https://twitter.com/StephenMStrader/status/901852872547213314
https://pbs.twimg.com/media/DIQFMGoXYAAVcUe.jpg
https://weather.com/storms/severe/news/flood-fatigue-2015-2016-texas-louisiana-oklahoma
18 Major Flood Events Have Hit Texas, Louisiana, Oklahoma, Arkansas Since March 2015.
I couldnt blame folks living in this part of the country if they think maybe climate change is real.
What has changed?
Climate…pattterns of storm activity and strength most likely.
Water vapor is now increasing at about 1.5% per decade. It has increased about 8% since the more rapid increase began in about 1960. The rising WV coincides with rising irrigation, especially spray irrigation on fields and lawns. WV is rising more than twice as fast as expected from the temperature increase of the water (feedback).
Citations?
WV thru July 2017 Numerical data: http://data.remss.com/vapor/monthly_1deg/tpw_v07r01_198801_201707.time_series.txt
Graphed in Fig 3 at http://globalclimatedrivers2.blogspot.com
Irrigation increase is from paying attention for several decades corroborated by several sources, e.g. http://www.worldwatercouncil.org/fileadmin/wwc/Library/WWVision/Chapter2.pdf & http://www.fao.org/nr/water/aquastat/water_use_agr/index.stm
Expected increase in WV based on temperature increase of liquid water is assumed to be the same % as the % increase in vapor pressure due to temperature increase of the liquid water as provided by e.g. http://intro.chem.okstate.edu/1515sp01/database/vpwater.html
By “citations” I mean to the peer reviewed published literature, not whatever amateurish links you happen to cherry pick.
Got any of that?
As to peer review there is this quote, available in Wikipedia, by Richard Horten, editor of the Lancet But we know that the system of peer review is biased, unjust, unaccountable, incomplete, easily fixed, often insulting, usually ignorant, occasionally foolish, and frequently wrong.
This is especially true regarding climate change. The average of the ‘peer reviewed’ GCM ‘projections’ show a temperature increase of more than twice actual as measured by balloons and satellite.
GCM vs measured thru 2015 https://judithcurry.com/2015/12/17/climate-models-versus-climate-reality/
Nate…”18 Major Flood Events Have Hit Texas, Louisiana, Oklahoma, Arkansas Since March 2015″.
Have you checked over the last century or more to see whether that stat has been equaled or exceeded?
No. But im aware of events in Tx prior to this one, has had two 500 year events in last 3 years
“…two 500 year events in last 3 years”
Nad, that has to be the best example of “cherry-picking” ever.
How is this cherry picking?
What about the other 497 years?
Hmmmm?
Ger*
Before commenting, how about knowing what things mean…such as what is a 500 y event.
https://www.washingtonpost.com/amphtml/news/wonk/wp/2017/08/29/houston-is-experiencing-its-third-500-year-flood-in-3-years-how-is-that-possible/
Nate,
IPCC AR5 WG1:
“In summary, there continues to be a lack of evidence and thus low confidence regarding the sign of trend in the magnitude and/or frequency of floods on a global scale.”
Enough with the fear mongering and hype.
Sure, I think the jury is out on whether extreme precipitation events (as predicted from models) will continue..once in while you pull an inside straight.
But if ‘flukes’ keep happening you have to wonder if the deck is stacked.
Actually evidence of increasing extreme precitation events is strong
http://www.nature.com/nclimate/journal/v6/n5/full/nclimate2941.html?foxtrotcallback=true
IMO climate change is not IPCC’s true agenda.
In her October Dean’s lecture reprted here
https://thestute.com/2015/10/02/jennifer-francis-details-the-effects-of-climate-change/
Dr Jennifer Francis discussed the effect of changing jet streams on extreme weather events.
“Francis also discussed the change of the jet stream and what that means for weather patterns. Because of this increased temperature, the jet stream is increasing in wavelength and slowing in speed. These changes result in larger weather events that last longer due a slow moving stream West to East.”
The key words are “slow moving”.
We currently have a latitudinal jet stream. It is impossible to wander the hurricane to the north. What’s the cause? I observe a strong correlation with solar activity. The lower solar activity, the more meandering jet stream.
http://virga.sfsu.edu/gif/17082812_jetstream_h24.gif
You can see that a strong jet stream is high in the north. Therefore, it can not dissipate the hurricane.
Possibly the enhanced polar warming and thus the overall reduced latitudinal temperature gradient simply slows the equator to pole heat transport by weather patterns.
Only that the weather pattern in the north is formed in the stratosphere in the ozone zone.
http://files.tinypic.pl/i/00928/tyn8nh0wbxns.png
alpha-g…”Possibly the enhanced polar warming…”
The Arctic is warming in locales that change month to month. It’s not an overall, persistent warming.
Really? Tell that to the NORCs.
ren…”We currently have a latitudinal jet stream. It is impossible to wander the hurricane to the north. Whats the cause? I observe a strong correlation with solar activity”.
Could it be the Aurora Borealis pushing the jet stream south?
☺ ☺ ☺
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Aurora
See…the aurora is caused by nitrogen and oxygen, not CO2. There is simply not enough CO2 to do anything other than make alarmists scientists a lot of money.
Gordon Robertson it is exactly the opposite. Aurora accelerates the jet stream.
Aurora is only a manifestation of magnetic activity of the sun.
When the jet stream accelerates it becomes more latitudinal.
What’s more, the low returns to the Gulf of Mexico.
http://www.lightningwizard.com/maps/North_America/ani.html?0,gfs_,_usa0.png,cape,mucape,icape,layer,lfc,mulfc,el,icon10,omega,pvort,pvort2,difadv,kili,spout,lapse,lapse2,the700,thetae,mixr,mtv,gusts,stp,srh,srhl,pw,hail
The top post says: “There is no aspect of global warming theory that says rain systems are going to be moving slower, as we are seeing in Texas.”
Michael E Mann says:
“The stalling is due to very weak prevailing winds, which are failing to steer the storm off to sea, allowing it to spin around and wobble back and forth. This pattern, in turn, is associated with a greatly expanded subtropical high pressure system over much of the US at the moment, with the jet stream pushed well to the north. This pattern of subtropical expansion is predicted in model simulations of human-caused climate change.”
https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2017/aug/28/climate-change-hurricane-harvey-more-deadly
LOL.
Mann’s comment does not conflict at all with what the top post says. Mann is describing the weather of the day, not climate change, whether he realizes it or not. But he has to add on the “human-caused climate change” at the end or he sounds like a typical TV weatherman.
“This pattern of subtropical expansion is predicted in model simulations of human-caused climate change.”
Seen in some, and not seen in others. This is (appropriately) the Texas Sharpshooters Fallacy: Make a wide spread of predictions, highlight the ones that inevitably happen to match later reality, and downplay those that don’t.
I can accept that explanation Bart.
svante…”Michael E Mann says:
The stalling is due to very weak prevailing winds, which are failing to steer the storm off to sea”
That’s great, Mann is a geologist.
Why does Michael E. Mann remind me of Alfred E. Neuman?
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Alfred_E._Neuman
Mann’s bachelor’s was a double major in applied math and physics. His master’s was in geology and geophysics, as was his PhD. His thesis was “A study of ocean-atmosphere interaction and low-frequency variability of the climate system.”
Then why does Mann get it wrong every time he opens his mouth? Joe Bastardi has a few comments.
https://junkscience.com/2017/08/bastardi-no-michael-mann-climate-change-did-not-cause-hurricane-harvey/
http://davidappell.blogspot.com/2012/03/joe-bastardi-idiot-liar-or-both.html
David Mann lost a court case in Canada because he would not allow his “data and methods” open to discovery. It look to me he has a lot to hide.
I think Mann is referring to the slowdown in the Rossby wave migration, and thus storms don’t get pushed out east to hit land or cooler ocean as easily. I think this may be too simplistic, as this seems like it could also stall storm origination and migration from equatorial areas westward. A stalled storm over water can build, but it can also get its top sheared off.
Climate change is certainly making the Houston flooding worse, because sea level is rising. That increases storm surges and brings more water inland.
Galveston, which is a barrier island, has seen 0.75 meters of sea level rise since 1900:
[link not permitted]
Much of that is due to the island’s subsistence, so sea level rise is making this worse than where the land isn’t sinking. And, with small-slope beaches and relatively flat land, the inland extension of the water is increasing even faster.
inland extension ~ sea level rise/sin(shore slope)
Slope: the tangent of the angle made by a straight line with the x-axis Mirriam-Webster’s Peer Reviewed Dictionary
Therefore: inland extension = sea level rise / shore slope
For the triangle, I took inland extension to be the hypotenuse, and SLR as the vertical side. Then
sin(coastal slope) = opposite/hypotenuse = SLR/ILE
which gives the formula I gave above. For a small coastal slope, you can approximate the sine as simply the angle (in radians).
“Climate change is certainly making the Houston flooding worse, because sea level is rising.”
USGS says subsidence is occurring at a rate from 3 to 30 times faster than sea level rise.
https://images1.houstonpress.com/imager/u/blog/8528458/houstonsubsidence2013web.jpg
And, anyway, storm surge isn’t the problem in Houston, flooding rains are.
What is the time frame for that graphic?
Do you have a link to the article itself?
Also, it doesn’t show the barrier island that Galveston sits on.
http://www.houstonpress.com/news/houston-is-sinking-8528452
BTW, all that subsidence in the Houston area is also anthropogenic in origin — overpumping of aquifers:
“When you lose that much, it makes an area prone to floods when they weren’t historically,” said Mark Kasmarek, a hydrogeologist for more than 30 years with the USGS.
http://www.houstonchronicle.com/news/houston-texas/houston/article/For-years-the-Houston-area-has-been-losing-ground-7951625.php
Southeast Florida is experiencing similar subsidence, as is much of the east coast of the U.S.
“Much of that is due to the islands subsistence” Yes not due to CO2.
Rising sea levels due to CO2 make land subsistence all that much more worrisome.
DA…”all that subsidence in the Houston area is also anthropogenic in origin overpumping of aquifers:…”
Likely for filling swimming pools and other non-essential water usage.
If you’ve ever been to Houston, you would understand why a swimming pool could be considered essential. Summers there are very hot and very humid.
“Exacerbating the situation, said Hal Needham, a storm surge expert and founder of the private firm Marine Weather & Climate in Galveston, Tex., was that the storm surge elevated Galveston Bay, blocking drainage of the rain that pummeled coastal and inland areas.”
https://www.nytimes.com/2017/08/28/climate/how-hurricane-harvey-became-so-destructive.html
DA…”the storm surge elevated Galveston Bay, blocking drainage of the rain that pummeled coastal and inland areas…”
This is the problem when politicians are involved and engineers are ignored. We have similar issues here in Vancouver, Canada at the mouth of the Fraser River middle arm where it meets the ocean.
The city of Richmond is on the south side of the middle arm and it has dykes lined with large granite block set at a height to allow for tidal surges and flooding. We have pumping stations set well above river level so the rising river level cannot interfere with drainage.
Tell me this, what kind of an engineer would not foresee that issue in Galveston Bay? They likely had the teenage son of a local politician design the pumping stations. Or were they relying on gravity feed, saving the cost of an elevated pumping station?
Here’s a PDF covering the area till 1995. I imagine it has gotten worse since then.
https://pubs.usgs.gov/circ/circ1182/pdf/07Houston.pdf
And much more of Houston is now covered in concrete and asphalt than in 1979.
Wrong. Every extreme unusual weather event is indeed a sign of climate change. We are entering a new climate era brought on by the sun that is causing more clouds to form and more high and low pressure systems that stall in one stop for unusual amounts of time that bring unprecedented rainfall, snowfall, hot, cold you name it. It is all getting worse. I use to be a climate change denier until I looked at the evidence that proves that is indeed happening but not like the media says it is because of our co2 emissions. It is a purposeful miscoy to keep us unprepared for the next disastrous cold era and then when things get really bad and take a turn for the worse they can say “oh but we were only trying to help but we were somehow accidentally wrong but you still need to pay us your tax dollars anyways because we were trying to help.” Yes Climate change is indeed real. Yes the climate is changing. Yes man has an influence on it but it is too tiny to matter so what’s the point? Oh I know! Global consumption tax and population control!
Total consent.
Is that sarcasm?
Never.
cc4real…”It is a purposeful miscoy to keep us unprepared for the next disastrous cold era and then when things get really bad and take a turn for the worse they can say oh but we were only trying to help…”
Not likely. They’ll claim, “see…climate models predicted this as part of global warming”. Then they’ll go on to claim it’s a short term trend and that it’s still really warming.
Maybe. Point is they have to come up with something and fast before Mother Nature flushes their billion dollar profit climate change agenda down the toilet.
Some already have a few up their sleaves such as we are still cooling from that Godzilla El Nio in 2015 or “even if the ice age starts within the next few years don’t worry because after that it’s all doom and gloom from their BecauSe by 2100 the co2 levels will be so high that climate change would have caused a 10 degree rise and global temperatures and all the ice is gone and the coastal areas of the US will all be underwater.
Btw when I say ice age I mean grand solar minimum. There are some scientists that predict full blown glaciation within the next few decades such as Rolf richez, Valentina zarcova and lee wheelbarger but I am not aboard on that boat just yet.
Ice ages aren’t caused by oscillations in solar irradiance.
Oh really? And what made you come to that shocking conclusion? Your so called 97% of scientists that back up you stupid man made global warming theory? Lol
Keep dreaming snow flake.
“Ice ages arent caused by oscillations in solar irradiance.”
Why don’t you try telling the university of boulder caloroado that! I’m sure they’ll love to hear it!
http://culter.colorado.edu/~saelias/glacier.html
Solar irradiance and insolation are two different things.
Maybe you should learn the difference before calling someone a snowflake.
And maybe you should look at past cycles of climate change and see the bigger picture on what’s really causing climate change.
There are a few historical weather reports from the gulf region from the early 1500s. Spanish explorer Cabeza de Vaca reported several deaths from freezing in November 1519 somewhere near the mouth of the Guadalupe river. His small fleet of boats were destroyed by powerful storms along the gulf coast. Amazing story if you ever get a chance to read about his journey through the south western region of N. America.
There may be more hurricanes this season in the Atlantic.
http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/mtpw2/product.php?color_type=tpw_nrl_colors&prod=natl×pan=24hrs&anim=html5
Maybe so, maybe not.
I think we’re seeing how an ice sheet develops…
Low returned over the Gulf of Mexico and rainfall returned to Houston.
https://www.accuweather.com/en/us/houston-tx/77002/weather-radar/351197
“As the perilous situation unfolded, Houston Mayor Sylvester Turner defended the decision not to issue evacuation orders ahead of the flooding rain.
Well, the reality is this is unprecedented, Turner said at a Sunday press conference. Theres a lot of rain, so which neighborhood would you have to evacuate? Quite frankly, every neighborhood, every community received water and are flooded. Every bayou went over its banks. You cannot put in the city of Houston, 2.3 million people on the road. That is dangerous.
Between Houston and an evacuation of surrounding Harris County, there wouldve been over 6.5 million people on the road, Turner explained.”
Not an easy choice.
The last time they evacuated Houston, people died.
When they evacuated before Hurricane Rita in 2005 more than 70 people died in the evacuation and 100 odd in a weaker than expected storm..
Turner must have decided that fewer people would die this time if they stayed put.
Yes, EM. The path of lest regret is not an easy pick in a storm.
It was interesting to see how little (in mind) Michael Mann really is. This morning I pointed out a few things he left out of his comments and asked several questions. The first responses were from his fans and included being called names, apparently getting all my misinformation from Roy Spencer, and being told I know nothing followed by my comment being removed and being banned from his site.
What an unbelievable disgrace this (Mann) really is…
Dale…”What an unbelievable disgrace this (Mann) really is”
You got that right. His supporters fall under that category as well.
Mann has attacked Dr. Judith Curry based on her sexual status. That gives a clue to his basic mind set. On the Climategate email scandal, Mann was front and centre trying to interfere with peer review. His buddy, Phil Jones of CRU, bragged about using Mann’s ‘trick’ to hide declining temperatures by snipping off the offending proxy temperature data and splicing in real temperatures. The practice has become known as ‘hide the decline’.
His hockey stick was easily debunked by statisticians McIntyre and McKittrick, who were later corroborated by statistics expert Wegman, part of a US government panel appointed to investigate the hockey stick study (MBB98).
Bradley of MBB98 sued Wegman for plagiarism? Excuse me?? Wegman was investigating Bradley and he quoted from his work without giving Bradley credit, even though Wegman had set a precedent by citing him earlier in the investigation, think that would be sufficient. The glaring point is that Bradley did not sue Wegman for finding his work was rubbish, he sued him on a technicality.
The National Academy of Science also investigated as part of the panel, and they told Mann he could not claim a full thousand years for his study. The IPCC later amended the 1000 year claim to 1850 onward, while discarding the hockey stick graph. They replaced it with a graph that re-installed the Little Ice Age and the Medieval Warm Period which played havoc with the straightness of the hockey stick shaft.
Shame on the IPCC for allowing the hockey stick in the first place. They had previously acknowledged the LIA and MWP in 1990 yet they ignored the omission of both in the hockey stick. That’s how desperate they were for evidence, albeit pseudo-science, for their lame theories on AGW.
NAS also told Mann he could not use pine tree bristlecone for the 20th century. That effectively threw out his study since the 20th century tree proxy data came from pine tree bristlecone.
All in all, Mann comes across as a scientist lacking the fundamentals of science. He’s a geologist who speaks as if he has expertise in atmospheric physics. In a study with Stieg, another alarmist, they claimed Antarctica has warmed since 1950. Turns out they took warming from a small part of the Antarctic Peninsula, close to the tip of South America, and extrapolated that warming to show a warming right across Antarctica that did not exist.
The highlight of the study was a weather station on the mainland that turned out to be under 4 feet of snow.
All opinion, no evidence. As usual.
BTW, the hockey stick is now standard science. As I showed earlier, it arises from the laws of physics.
Davie’s “laws of physics” indicate that the Sun can heat Earth to 800,000K, as the Earth then heats the Sun!
“Perpetual heating”!
All courtesy of Davie’s pseudoscience.
You were shown the calculation. Now you still deny it and are being a sore loser. But that’s all you ever contribute here — mindless trolling. I can definitely see why you’re too embarrassed to sign your real name to your comments.
Film of the 1936 Houston flood..
http://abc13.com/news/rare-film-shows-great-flood-of-1935/1301371/
Sorry for the typo… 1935.
Roy…I think you have hit the nail on the head. Areas like Houston are simply not prepared to deal with such a disaster.
I feel for Texans going through this disaster, however, Texans also pride themselves on their lack of government interference, meaning they eschew a centralized form of government with the associated taxation that could provide relief from flooding.
It likely makes no sense to Texans in the long run to invest in flood control since they seldom have issues with it. I think you might find a few converts, however, as people struggle to survive right now.
Same thing with tornadoes. Tornado Alley extends through several US states from Texas up to and including Canada. Every year, homes in towns are shredded yet people rebuild with the same wood frame homes that are prone to tornado damage. Why not build homes made of reinforced concrete with strong shutter systems over doors and windows that can withstand the forces of tornadoes or hurricanes?
We are just as bad in Canada. We seem willing to roll the dice, rebuilding with wood frame homes in a tornado-prone area, rather than be sensible and build homes that can withstand tornadoes.
We have similar issues with flooding in Canada, although not to the degree Huston is suffering now. Our flooding is generally caused by snow melting in spring and, in areas like Vancouver, that can be compounded by tidal issues. We have had to build extensive dykes along the Fraser River, nearer to the ocean, to prevent cities like Richmond from being under 4 feet of water when the river floods.
In Winnipeg, in central Canada, they have had to invest in extensive flood control systems on the Red River, which runs right through Winnipeg.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Red_River_Floodway
To me, centralized government is a no-brainer. Everyone chips in, which increases our taxes, but everyone benefits. The US seems to pride itself on minimal central government but that often results in disasters, either to the individual (no Medicare), or to the mass populace such as Houston is experiencing now.
I might add, New Orleans faced the same issues with flooding from Katrina and they were totally unprepared for that kind of flooding. My understanding is that New Orleans has since taken steps to prepare. Was Houston not taking notes?
Harvey may end up dumping a lot of rain on New Orleans.
Gordon,
Your statement that “The US seems to pride itself on minimal central government” makes me wonder if you really understand our Constitution. It is not that we pride ourselves based on some cultural affinity, minimal central government was codified in the US Constitution, which explicitly grants LIMITED power to the Federal Government. All other PLENARY powers are held by the states.
In the case of flood protection, why would it not make sense for the State of Texas to decide how to evaluate risk and provide these services? They understand their state, the risks their people are willing to take, and the costs associated with either prevention or rebuilding.
Of course, over the past 100 years, we have grossly expanded the power of the Federal government (by driving a truck through the interstate commerce clause) and now have Federal agencies like FEMA that – arguably – encourage states not to spend money on prevention. After all, if we can declare a Federal emergency after the fact and bring in Federal tax dollars to rebuild, why prevent in the first place?
Like so many others, I believe it is the strength of individual liberty and freedom FROM a centralized government that makes America unique and great. Unfortunately, we no longer have that freedom and the $3 TRILLION collected annually in Federal taxes (Income and Payroll) are not enough to pay for the behemoth that Washington politicians created.
Of course, our founding fathers were smart enough to foresee it. During the Madison debates for ratifying the Constitution said presciently:
“In these sentiments, Sir, I agree to this Constitution with all its faults, if they are such; because I think a general Government necessary for us, and there is no form of Government but what may be a blessing to the people if well administered, and believe farther that this is likely to be well administered for a course of years, and can only end in Despotism, as other forms have done before it, when the people shall become so corrupted as to need despotic Government, being incapable of any other.
Bo Darville…”In the case of flood protection, why would it not make sense for the State of Texas to decide how to evaluate risk and provide these services?”
Bo…not taking shots at the US from afar. I appreciate what the US has done globally as an ally in pursuit of world law and order. I just wish the powers that be would get out of Trump’s way and let him get on with government business.
I feel somewhat bemused, however, by your insistence on sticking to the Constitution rather than amending it to make it more suitable for modern US citizens. You guys seem to regard the Constitution as written is stone. After all, it was written initially to cover 13 states in the days when mail was delivered by Pony Express.
You said…”In the case of flood protection, why would it not make sense for the State of Texas to decide how to evaluate risk and provide these services?”
Texas appears to be notoriously thrifty when it comes to spending on such infrastructure. I take that to be the case since Texans resent spending taxes above what they consider a minimal amount. Even at that, tax dodging seems to be a sport in many parts of the US, especially among the corporate crowd.
Even in Canada that’s the case. One Canadian businessman told me a while back me that if a businessman is paying taxes he is doing something wrong.
“I feel somewhat bemused, however, by your insistence on sticking to the Constitution rather than amending it to make it more suitable for modern US citizens. You guys seem to regard the Constitution as written is stone. After all, it was written initially to cover 13 states in the days when mail was delivered by Pony Express.”
Because US is united states. Federal govt is like EU.
Texas has more GDP than Canada.
I don’t think the State of Texas should fund a city needs.
If you want to make some network involving multiple cities, that make sense of the State of Texas to be involved.
GDP is hardly the measure of all things.
For example, the US GDP will get a big boost from all the rebuilding that will occur in Houston. Despite all the damage.
Bo…”Of course, our founding fathers were smart enough to foresee it. During the Madison debates for ratifying the Constitution said presciently:…”
Can’t argue with you on that. Even Eisenhower, in the 50’s, when he set in motion government grants for scientists predicted the abuse of the system. This entire mess over man-made global warming is driven by scientists seeking lucrative funding for telling lies.
Gordon Robertson says:
“This entire mess over man-made global warming is driven by scientists seeking lucrative funding for telling lies.”
You’re being a sore loser.
As I recall the flooding in NO was the result of levys (sp?) failing due to storm surge, not epic rain fall (reminder Much of NO is below sea level). Different types of apples. Short of greatly limiting development, beyond a certain point you just can not prepare for epic rain fall.
JohnD…”As I recall the flooding in NO was the result of levys (sp?) failing due to storm surge…”
No argument that was part of the problem, along with storm surges. Covered in detail here:
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hurricane_Katrina
A ruling was made that the levee failures were partly due to the lack of follow up to ensure they were able to do the job. Again, it comes down to a lack of preparedness. Even if you prepare for everything, something will go wrong, but hopefully not to the extent of Katrina’s damage, or what is taking place in Houston now.
Gordon, you are talking sense for once.
dr no…”Gordon, you are talking sense for once”.
Thanks, doc…that’s major coming from you. ☺
Gordon Robertson says:
“To me, centralized government is a no-brainer.”
Texans disagree. And couldn’t care less what Canadians, fellow Americans or anyone else, think.
Sorry…that quote was from Ben Franklin on Tuesday, September 17, 1787 during the Madison Debates, as noted.
Bo d…”Sorrythat quote was from Ben Franklin….”
Ben was pretty cool. Anyone who would fly a kite in an electrical storm as part of an experiment has my vote. I just wish some of the climate alarmists claiming an ice-free Arctic would go to the north Pole in February.
Who is claiming an ice-free Arctic in February?
To having a discussion about this topic is absurd.
To not having discussion is the ignorance of a head in sand.
Mel the Commenter: “What concerns me, David, is the utterly-super-mobilization of every hyperbole in the English language, absolutely flooding us, drowning us, if you will, under an unprecedented inundation of extravagant metaphor.
“It has become so bad, the metaphors flowing at such a pace that news-readers are being stretched to the breaking point like underbuilt earthen dams. Only today I noticed news readers having to pare down the classic “Rain of Biblical proportions,” locution to just, “Biblical rain.”
To Quote:
CAGW is just a NWO political agenda for one world government. Houston apparently has become a hotbed for severe rain and flooding due to being near the Gulf where Tropical Storms/Hurricanes linger this time of year, being flat and near sea level with waterways going in every direction making it vulnerable to storm surges, heavy rain and flooding. Increase urbanisation increases flash flooding also more impermeable surfaces, under capacity drains and culverts, debris and roots, and concentrated flows.
Okay.my opinion counts as much as anyone eleses.
Such wingnuts exist even in some sincere Churches. A dangerous and puerile doctrine of conspiracy theory. This is rife in sectarian off springs like some outlier fundamentalist religions. Hannity along with Fox News will a have swing at it as well.
There is more from Australias Hot Whopper:
There’s more. The Heartland Institute pulled together a rabble of climate disinformers and offered their lies to the media (archived here). I cannot imagine any responsible journos taking them up on their offer.
The Heartland Institute doesn’t “believe” the hurricane forecasts from the world’s best weather agencies. (I see that Anthony Watts doesn’t agree with them on that point, because he copied and pasted heaps of forecasts, which are of course, derived from models.) The Heartland press release stated: Hurricanes, like the other mechanisms, cannot usefully be modeled, even with the largest and most sophisticated climate models used by the U.N. Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change.
Heartland offered a list of people they termed “Heartland Institute Experts”, which only goes to show that the Heartland Institute has no access to experts. Not only that, but they lied about some of the qualifications of their so-called “experts”. The press release referred to John Coleman as a “meteorologist”. He’s not. He’s a journalist and business person. It referred to Timothy Ball as a “Former Climatology Professor”. He’s not. He’s a former geography professor (teaching mainly, not research) and a current nutcase of a conspiracy theorist. Many of the other fake experts offered up had no qualification other than being a “policy advisor” to The Heartland Institute. A couple were listed as economists. Tom Harris, who gets his climate “expertise” from the bible and claims that climate science is a hoax, was included in the list as well.
It’s wrong to regard climate science deniers as being harmless idiots. It’s not enough for them to deny, lie and play down the dangers of climate change. Not acting on climate change will cause a lot of death and destruction and ruin the livelihoods of many. It will also threaten world food supplies in future.
As can be seen today, climate science deniers are a threat to people in the here and now. In the last day or so, prominent climate dis-informers have been playing down the dangers of Hurricane Harvey. Their motive seems to be, as always, because they want people to reject the fact and risks of climate change. Why they would want to downplay an immediate risk for ideology.
This is based in a groundless theory of anti-liberalism and anti-leftist rhetoric that is both unfathomable and downright stupid.
Nice. The Heartland Institute will say whatever they’re paid to say.
Lots more lucre on the alarmist side.
Such as?
I’m only a lowly historian, but in the humanities it has been acknowledged for some time now that we have been living in the anthropocene: https://www.historians.org/publications-and-directories/perspectives-on-history/february-2017/getting-warmer-historians-on-climate-change-and-the-anthropocene
Just last week we had an “unprecedented” event in Switzerland, when about 4 million cubic meters of rock broke out of a mountain and buried part of Bondo.
Geologists say the cause is the melting of perma frost. Temperatures in Switzerland have risen almost 2°C over the last 150 years, which is about double the global average.
It’s not that such events haven’t always happened, but that in our time we have a culmination and acceleration of such events.
And since 2°C is such an abstract number, here you can see what happened to some glaciers in the Swiss Alps in just a few years: http://gletschervergleiche.ch/Pages/ImageCompare.aspx?Id=6
In spring/summer the increased thawing of glaciers and perpetual snow and ice coupled with rain regularly leads to flooding in the lower regions of Switzerland…
It is assumed that the basic climate cycle lasts 60 years. Therefore, the trend may be similar for 30 years and then turns away.
And it is also assumed that the sun activity does not change and will be the same as in the 20th century. Meanwhile, you can see that this is not true.
The sun just isn’t that important anymore.
Anthropogenic greenhouse gas warming easily swamps any cooling from a Maunder Minimum-like sun. Cooling by 2100 would only be, at most, 0.3 C below IPCC projections. We will not be entering another Little Ice Age.
“On the effect of a new grand minimum of solar activity on the future climate on Earth,” G. Fuelner and S. Rahmstorf, Geo Res Lett vol. 37, L05707 2010.
http://www.pik-potsdam.de/~stefan/Publications/Journals/feulner_rahmstorf_2010.pdf
“Increased greenhouse gases enhance regional climate response to a
Maunder Minimum,” Song et al, Geo Res Lett vol. 37, L01703 (2010)
http://www-cirrus.ucsd.edu/~zhang/PDFs/Song_et_al-2010.pdf
“What influence will future solar activity changes over the 21st century have on projected global near-surface temperature changes?” Gareth S. Jones, et al, JGR v 117, D05103 (2012) doi:10.1029/2011JD017013, 2012.
http://www.leif.org/EOS/2011JD017013.pdf
Why then David are the global temperatures not as high today when global co2 concentrations were lower during the Holocene Optimum, Minoan, Roman ,and Medieval warm periods?
In addition to stalling out the last several years.
Temperature today *IS* higher than those periods, and you have no legitimate scientific data that says otherwise.
AGW would still be true even if the above wasn’t true. In fact, it’d be worse, because if those were true, the climate is apparently more sensitive to solar forcing than is currently thought.
In fact, in this cycle, the sun surprises us. It is not known what this means for the climate.
http://wso.stanford.edu/gifs/Dipall.gif
The Sun has gradually been sending less energy to Earth since the 1960s.
Really?
http://www.iup.uni-bremen.de/gome/solar/mgii_composite.png
http://www.iup.uni-bremen.de/gome/gomemgii.html
You plots show the decrease, but they don’t start in the ’60s. This does:
http://spot.colorado.edu/~koppg/TSI/TIM_TSI_Reconstruction.png
Poor job of eyeballing, DA. It’s the low frequency that drives it, and that depends on the peaks more than the valleys, and the peaks do not decline appreciably until the 2000’s.
You’re right, the peaks decline. That’s why the trend is negative.
Besides, the climate is very insensitive to changes in solar irradiance:
dT/dS <~ 0.1 K/(W/m2)
If you think the Sun is causing climate change, prove it.
Really?
http://www.woodfortrees.org/graph/pmod
Yes, really. That’s exactly what your graph shows. And it doesn’t go back to the 1960s.
Well of course. In the 1960s the activity was even higher. Thanks for the reminder. It znzaczy that now extremely decreased.
https://solarscience.msfc.nasa.gov/images/Zurich_Color_Small.jpg
Sorry.
This means that solar activity is now extremely low (which does not mean that it can be temporarily high).
ren says:
“Well of course. In the 1960s the activity was even higher.”
Precisely. Higher TSI then is what is meant by a declining trend. Duh.
ren says:
“This means that solar activity is now extremely low (which does not mean that it can be temporarily high).”
Of course, this also means the trend is declining.
Give it up, ren.
That argument David does not hold up because up to year 2005 the sun was sending enough energy and having enough activity to cause global warming.
It was not until 2005 that this trend reversed and further I have laid out specific solar parameters needed in order for the sun to have a cooling impact upon the climate in a low sub solar environment both conditions which have failed to materialize until year 2017.
Years 2008-2010 had very low solar activity but did not follow 10+ years of sub – solar activity in general. Only now does this seems to be taking place.
Salvatore Del Prete says:
“That argument David does not hold up because up to year 2005 the sun was sending enough energy and having enough activity to cause global warming.”
Wrong.
And I notice you didn’t even *attempt* to prove this.
Your opinions are not science.
“Its not that such events havent always happened, but that in our time we have a culmination and acceleration of such events.”
That’s the meme, but it’s just marketing.
What do the data show?
Danke fuer den Link Monika!
What this storm shows is that the 12 year drought has caused complacency.
We don’t plan for weather we know will happen eventually, instead, sit back and say “i eventually told you so” from the usual suspects.
Katherine Hayhoe 2013 “Texas is in permanent drought cos of AGW”
Katherine Hayhoe 2017 “Texas is getting so much rain cos of AGW”
Michael E Mann is talking about pseudo meteorlogy again, the man is cluless about meteorology, yet is the first port of call for comments from all the usual eco drone journos
“At this point it doesnt look like any rain gage locations will break the record for total 24 hour rainfall in Texas, or possibly even for storm total rainfall, but to have so large an area having over 20 inches is very unusual.”
I think Roy may have jumped the gun here. Let us wait until the event is over before dismissing it as just a rare, but not unexpected, event. He may have egg on face by Friday.
+1. And a storm does not have to break all-time records in order to have a negative ACC component.
How about this for another “sign”:
“The UK has experienced the hottest late-August bank holiday Monday on record, the Met Office has said, with much of the south and south-east recording above average temperatures and the mercury peaking at 28.2C at Holbeach in Lincolnshire.
The previous record was 27.2C recorded in East Bergholt in Suffolk in 1984.”
https://www.theguardian.com/uk-news/2017/aug/28/uk-on-course-for-hottest-august-bank-holiday-monday-on-record
It’s much easier to break records when you cool old records when it suits you.
https://twitter.com/metoffice/status/902088907654914049
And it’s just a “record” for the holiday itself, the UK has seen much higher temperatures in August.
Again, adjustments reduce the long-term warming trend.
Jetstream will still be holding Harvey in a trap.
http://virga.sfsu.edu/gif/17082900_jetstream_h84.gif
3-hour Precipitation Accumulation
amount of precipitation over the next three hours.
https://earth.nullschool.net/#current/wind/isobaric/850hPa/overlay=precip_3hr/orthographic=-94.91,28.42,3000
Roy, you say there is no aspect of climate change theory that predicts the stalling. But there is. “The stalling is due to very weak prevailing winds, which are failing to steer the storm off to sea, allowing it to spin around and wobble back and forth. This pattern, in turn, is associated with a greatly expanded subtropical high pressure system over much of the US at the moment, with the jet stream pushed well to the north. This pattern of subtropical expansion is predicted in model simulations of human-caused climate change” . Source: Michael Mann in the Guardian.
Soon the solar wind will accelerate again, as a corona hole runs right in front of Earth. The jet stream will remain in the north.
Dr Spencer wrote:
Roger Pielke Jr. has pointed out that the U.S. has had only four Category 4 (or stronger) hurricane strikes since 1970, but in about the same number of years preceding 1970 there were 14 strikes. So we cant say that we are experiencing more intense hurricanes in recent decades.
By “we”, Dr Spencer is talking about the USA. As the projections he is implicitly criticising do not include location, his criticism via Pielke is off the mark. A goal post shift.
Falsely conflating US landfalling hurricanes with (IPCC) projections is disappointing. Particularly since Dr Spencer appears to be aware of such false representations.
“There is no aspect of global warming theory that says rain systems are going to be moving slower, as we are seeing in Texas. This is just the luck of the draw. Sometimes weather systems stall, and that sucks if you are caught under one.”
Quite.
There is no aspect of global warming theory that says hurricanes will make landfall in the US more or less often.
As a non-US citizen, how should I take the side-lining of other countries who have been hit by Cat 3+ Atlantic hurricanes in recent years? The premise of the implied criticism is not only false, but also blind to anything happening outside the US.
THE TRPOICAL CYCLONE INDEX(ACE) FOR THE GLOBE IS TRENDING DOWN WHICH TELLS THE STORY OVER THE LAST SEVERAL YEARS.
ACE is the absolute worst metric for hurricanes, since it does not include storm size.
A baseball traveling at 100 mph has the same ACE as a hurricane with max winds of 100 mph. Think about that.
No need to shout. Last I looked there was little trend in hurricane intensity overall, but slight trends in high intensity hurricanes.
And it’s worth getting specific. Dr Spencer only ever talks about Atlantic hurricanes (and only those that make US landfall). If I remember correctly, projections are about global hurricanes/cyclones.
By all means link to something with some detail.
No Barry the Ace index which is a measure of total tropical cyclonic activity is way down.
https://www.wunderground.com/hurricane/accumulated_cyclone_energy.asp
Here it is.
That’s only for the Atlantic region. (Links failed on the tabs for the other regions)
Here is an ACE time series for global hurricanes/cyclones.
http://models.weatherbell.com/tropical/global_major_freq.png
As you can see, there is quite a bit of variation, but no real trend for cyclonic intensity.
Whereas for intense hurricanes (>96 knot wind speed) there is a slight upward trend.
You should approve of the website this information comes from.
http://models.weatherbell.com/tropical.php
Good data. We can agree thus far there is no increase in these kind of storms, it seems the same overall.
You’re reading the data differently to me. At the top I see no trend in hurricanes above 64 knots wind speed, but the bottom series of hurricanes above 96 knots has an upward trend.
correct with no real change when the two are combined.
Unfortunately Barry is right. The amount of major hurricanes category 3 or higher have been on an increase due to the recent warming trend over the past few decades. Although the Atlantic has been quieter over the past few years then it normally would the pacific is roaring like crazy with a record breaking active season in the Godzilla El Nio year of 2015/2016. Extreme events like this have been on the increase. The amount of floods has been on the increase. All extreme weather has seen a ramp up in activity especially over these past few years. It’s called climate change. But it is a natural driven phenomenon that man is not responsible for and cannot change. The climate is only going to get worse and weather will get weirder going into the 2020s and 2030s. Perhaps even the next few years. Climate change is real and is a dangerous thing that is happening but we are not 100% responsible for it, Mother Nature is. There are deniers and the opposite extreme that blame man kind for this climate change era. I am not on neither side of this. It is funny watchifn people go back and fourth for days on end on whether climate change is getting worse and if we are responsible for it. I sit back eat popcorn and laugh my butt off at these lunutics who don’t look deep enough into the science on why Climate change is happening and who is causing it and where it is headed in the near future. I have my own theories on why the earth climate is shifting. I suggest you do more research before trying to disprove others on whether extreme weather events such as hurricanes are getting worse due to climate change
Oh my God, the sky is falling !!!….
Oh, ..wait….. that’s just rain hahaha
Better click your ruby shoed heels together and wish yourself back to Kansas….oh wait, they have NATURAL disasters out there too called tornados…. they just started having bad ones of those too within the last 20 years, right? ….
…….are they a result of man made ‘climate change’ ?…..maybe Hillary Clunton’s campaign loss was due to climate change, because that was man made too……ah, so nice to have one answer to all the questions in the world LOL….you climate change folk are laughable….a real joke !!!
M north if you want to keep being a climate change denier ignoring the evidence of climate change then be my guest. Climate change is happening. It is in front of our faces now. I am not saying man is responsible for this change like most of the left wing conspiracy theorist say nor do I point to any evidence whatsoever of catastrophic warming in the near future. I look at past cycles of climate change and use those as a baseline of what will happen with The climate in the near future. If you want to know what’s going to happen in the future look at what happened in the past. History repeats. Back in the 1800s there were food riots and mass starvations due to climate change. The sun was in a state of hibernation then and that is what’s happening now like clockwork every 200 years or so. Do more research on what happened in the past. Four seasons in one day. Ring a bell? That’s what’s about to happen as we plunge into a deep solar hibernation. Unfortunately the media continues to shove man made global warming propaganda down our throats refusing to touch the evidence of a grand solar minimum with a 50 foot pole by all means. They will keep at it until they are blue in the face and by then the shit will have hit the fan and unfortunately it will be too late. You need to prepare now. YouTube channels such as ice age farmer, the grand solar minimum channel and adapt 2030 are good starts. I suggest you have an open mind and at least try to look into what im telling you is about to occur. Good day.
John l casey is one of the best sources to go for as far as climate change goes. He is one of the best predictors of climate change at least in the country if not the world. I suggest you start with him first before you do anything else. His predictions for climate change have been pretty spot on for the past 10 years. DO NOT EVER rely on the iPCC NASA NOAA and other governmental agenicies for any climate info. They have all been majorly wrong and have an agenda to keep alive.
You can purchase johns book dark winter and upheavel on Amazon. Dark winter was a best seller in Amazon of all the climate change books for the year 2015. Very good books even for the average street person to understand. Crucial and to the point. Highly recommended
They are already combined in the top line (+64 knots and above). The bottom line isolates the intensest hurricanes. Frequency of >96 knot hurricanes increased by 46% from 1970-2011 (the most recent data I was able to gather).
Looks like my memory works (grin).
Weatherbell provide time series data for hurricane frequency at different intensities, but it only goes up to mid-2012. So I took only complete years, 1970-2011, and regressed to see the strength of the positive trend for the most intense hurricanes (>96 know wind speed).
The result is that there is a 46% increase, globally, of hurricanes of that intensity from 1979-2011. They, however, historically rare events. Some years have none at all globally.
Note that ACE for the Atlantic region per your link has an upward trend over the whole time span, with lower ACE in recent years. That accords with the long-term view at Weatherbell for the region.
[Correction: My first link was not to an ACE time series, but time series of hurricanes above 64 knots wind speed (top) and above 96 knots (bottom). It does suggest that either high intensity hurricanes are becoming more frequent world wide, or that the number of hurricanes is unchanging, but have increased in intensity. This would show as a rise in the number of very high intensity hurricanes/cyclones]
These 2 web sources are pretty good.
https://www2.ucar.edu/news/backgrounders/hurricanes-typhoons-cyclones
http://models.weatherbell.com/tropical.php
Hurricane releases a lot of heat to the tropopause.
http://www.ospo.noaa.gov/data/sst/anomaly/2017/anoma.8.28.2017.gif
https://earth.nullschool.net/#current/ocean/surface/currents/overlay=sea_surface_temp_anomaly/orthographic=-80.20,14.92,786
Severe thunderstorms in Louisiana.
http://pl.blitzortung.org/live_lightning_maps.php?map=32
Never in the field of meteorology has so much fail been propagated by so few.
All weather is driven by the temperature gradient between the equator and the poles.
It is known from observations that mean temperature at the poles is rising much faster than mean temperature at the equator.
The temperature gradient between the equator and the poles is therefore declining, therefore the potential energy available to drive weather systems is declining.
Observed global warming means less ‘weather’ not more.
Isn’t it is astonishing how often alarmists make a fool of themselves!
http://www.drroyspencer.com/2017/08/why-houston-flooding-isnt-a-sign-of-climate-change/#comment-260185
Actually it is the fraction of the available thermal energy that can be converted to weather and concomitant mechanical energy and general circulation that is expected to decline.
The reason is that the natural “weather” thermal engine works between closer and closer heat source (T2 in tropical zone) and heat sink (T1 in polar region) temperatures. The fraction in question has according to Carnot to be necessarily less than (T2-T1)/T2 which decreases both because (T2-T1) decreases (enhanced polar warming) and T2 increases ( global warming ).
Amen (and I’m an Athiest)
All of this fine and well document set of comments going in every which direction just tells me that on the whole, we as a collective set of interested and quite often well educated persons, have absolutely no friggin idea of all the factors that really drive the climate. It is a formula of too many variables.
With all these variables it’s amazing how often I correctly predict that Summer will be warmer than Winter.
barry,
That’s nearly as brilliant as “predicting” that the Sun will rise tomorrow!
Can you “predict” anything useful? No?
I thought not! Maybe you should become a Warmist – providing no benefit to man or beast whatsoever.
Cheers.
Wait til the magnetic pole shift, everything reverses, be very scared, it’s gonna happen again sometime in the next 50 million years….
How come no one every cites the massive earthquake that occurred in Chile a couple of years ago that actually shifted the earths axis like 3 degrees as a reason? Plate tectonics are the real reason behind this crazy weather we’re having !! Blame it on the dinosaurs…….if they didn’t die off we wouldn’t have fossil fuels, thus no CO2 emissions, right? If the dinosaurs lived on, humans would have never evolved from apes and climbed down the trees, and became hominids in the Golden Crescent, right?
…I’m blaming this storm on the dinosaurs !!!!
Mike,
Thats nearly as brilliant as predicting that the Sun will rise tomorrow!
Maybe you missed the point. The claim that there are too many factors influencing climate to predict it is belied by seasonal change. All you need is a dominant influence.
Someone living permanently underground with no experience of seasons could predict it just from statistical analysis. Give them a bit of physics and they’d also know why it’s happening without ever once having experienced Summer and Winter.
The underlying fallacy is: because we don’t know everything, we know nothing.
barry,
I don’t think I missed the point at all.
You wrote –
“With all these variables its amazing how often I correctly predict that Summer will be warmer than Winter.”
You made a fatuous statement. Any reasonably normal 12 year old can make the same assumption, which has the same utility as yours – none at all!
As I implied, a completely useless piece of nonsense masquerading as useful information. Even the IPCC stated that prediction of future climate states is impossible. Maybe you want to characterise the IPCC as a group of demented clowns for acknowledging reality?
Climate is the average of weather which has already occurred – nothing more, nothing less. Look at the IPCC or WMO if you don’t believe me.
Warmists are lead by a steadily shrinking group of delusional psychotics, with not a first rate mind amongst them. The intellectual prowess of their followers is ably demonstrated by your comments.
Cheers.
Nope, you didn’t get the point at all.
Even the IPCC stated that prediction of future climate states is impossible.
What they said was – precise predictions are not possible, but probability distribution estimates for future climate states is the proper focus.
That’s why, for example, ECS has a value range, rather than a single value.
barry,
From the IPCC –
“The climate system is a coupled non-linear chaotic system, and therefore the long-term prediction of future climate states is not possible.”
Maybe they put in some weasel words afterwards, to lessen the pain inflicted by telling their mindless acolytes the truth. I don’t know. Do you think the head of the IPCC lied when he stated “The science is settled?”
The “ECS” is a figment of delusional imagination. Nobody has ever managed to raise the temperature of a thermometer by placing more CO2 between it and a source of heat. Only a foolish Warmist would believe such nonsense.
Cheers.
Mike Flynn says:
May 23, 2017 at 5:16 PM
I hate to bore you the real science, but the transmittance of the atmosphere increases as the amount of GHGs in it drops.
http://www.drroyspencer.com/2017/05/uah-global-temperature-update-for-april-2017-0-27-deg-c/#comment-247988
The ECS is a figment of delusional imagination. Nobody has ever managed to raise the temperature of a thermometer by placing more CO2 between it and a source of heat. Only a foolish Warmist would believe such nonsense.
Are you sure you are not Gordon Robertson?
David Appell,
Of course it does. The less GHG in the atmosphere, the more sunlight gets through. Hence, the highest temperatures in the world are found under the driest (least GHG) atmospheres.
The less GHG, the hotter it gets.
Your chance to fire off the usual mindless questions? Go for it!
Nobody has managed to raise the temperature of a thermometer with a GHG. Except in foolish Warmist fantasies, of course.
Cheers.
Maybe they put in some weasel words afterwards, to lessen the pain inflicted by telling their mindless acolytes the truth.
It’s a funny old thing. when you point out the full text on some cherry-picked quote, the complainant always tries to wave away the rest in some fantastical prose. Never occurs to the boofheads that if the rest of the text is lying that they shouldn’t trust any of it.
But no, they read what they like and decide that’s the only good part. Funny how the god parts are always only the parts they like.
I dont know. Do you think the head of the IPCC lied when he stated “The science is settled?”
Depends what he/she was talking about. Some of the science is settled, some is are not.
Settled science: The globe is warmer now than it was 100 years ago.
Not settled science: Hurricane frequency will increase/decrease/stay the same if the globe continues to warm.
barry,
Let’s not cherry-pick, then
Settled science – the Earth is cooler than it was at creation. No longer molten, even. Settled science indicates that a mainly molten Earth sized blob of rock, at about the mean distance of the Earth from the Sun, will cool.
Heat some iron to white heat, put it in full sunlight, and you will find it cools. Even boiling water cools in sunlight, regardless of how much GHG you surround it with.
As to the IPCC, even delusional psychotics get some things right some of the time, I suppose.
Still no GHE or ECS. None.
Cheers.
A trail of meandering associations. Try to focus on what the discussion is about. You can do it. I believe in you.
Mike, WRT to seasonal climate change, there’s a good analogy for what the IPCC is saying in the TAR (2001) quote.
No one can in Winter predict what the precise temperature of a given day will be in Summer. But in Winter one can confidently predict the likelihood that a particularly day in Summer will be warmer than Winter.
In some places, there are few days in Summer that are colder than some other days in Winter. But the probability distribution is different. The climate state has changed, so warmer days are far more likely to occur than colder in Summer than in Winter.
The seasonal analogy is very useful, because it’s something we all intuit quite well from experience. The same caveat applies as in the IPCC quote. we can’t say what the weather will be like on a given day in Summer, but we know the probability distribution, both from physics and statistics.
barry,
I know foolish Warmists resort to pointless and irrelevant analogies when unable to provide facts.
What’s your point? A childish assumption that seasons recur “proves” the IPCC members are not a bunch of ignorant dunderheads? The seasons occur for physical reasons involved the Earths inclination and the fact that it orbits the Sun in an ellipse. Not a lot of mystery there.
If your brilliant insight into “climatology” is based on what any child can observe, you’d be in good company. Foolish Warmist company, of course.
Climate is the average of past weather events, no more, no less. GHGs heat nothing – never have, never will. Sad but true. Settled science.
Cheers.
The seasons occur for physical reasons involved the Earths inclination and the fact that it orbits the Sun in an ellipse. Not a lot of mystery there.
5/10. The first part is right, the second a very minor modulation.
But it will do to demonstrate the point that, contrary to the claim posted at the start of this thread:
[We] have absolutely no friggin idea of all the factors that really drive the climate. It is a formula of too many variables.
You may have forgotten by now, but that was the point I addressed. Despite “all the factors that really drive climate” even during the seasons, we understand some mechanisms very well.
And you’ve gone to even further trouble to reinforce this point by pointing to settled science on the Earth’s temperature during its creation.
We could also mention the orbitally driven ice age shifts, which is fairly settled science, too, at least in terms of the triggering mechanism.
My point was that just because we don’t know everything, that doesn’t mean we know nothing. Thank you for your assistance on this.
On September 1st the weather pattern will change and the jetstream will direct the low at north.
http://files.tinypic.pl/i/00928/22mzt78rrus4.png
You cannot respond to millions of articles of scientific data with “weird stuff happens” you fucking clown
Forgot to take your meds I see.
You cannot respond to millions of articles of scientific data with “Forgot to take your meds I see.” you fucking clown
But you can respond to someone with actual intelligence with ‘you fucking clown’ ! They’re called mirrors, bub…..stopping looking into then and spouting your mouth off
I would love a link to a credible scientist with any kind of remotely relevant qualification claiming the effects of this storm are a result of man-made global warming or climate change (if you prefer).
On September 1st the weather pattern will change and the jetstream will direct the low at north over Texas.
https://earth.nullschool.net/#2017/09/02/0600Z/wind/isobaric/850hPa/orthographic=-91.82,33.55,1806
A tropical storm is developing in the eastern Atlantic.
http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/mtpw2/product.php?color_type=tpw_nrl_colors&prod=natl×pan=24hrs&anim=html5
Is it possible that the warming in the gulf is due to ever-increasing nitrate runoff from Midwest agriculture? Or is it definitely due to AGW?
You write that the December 1935 flood topped out at Buffalo Bayou at 54.4 feet. But this report from 1937 seems to suggest that it topped out at 2 am on December 9 at 60.8 feet (p280, table 12). Am I reading this table wrong?
I am confused about what money is being made promoting climate change. Can you share where that money is going?
It seems more money is being lost to coal, oil, and big Agri by asking for a push toward clean energy. Climate change doesn’t appear to turn much profit from where I’m looking.
So all you’re interested in is profit, regardless of the consequences?
Why do you think Al Gore keeps writing books and making movies…he’s as driven by greed as anyone hahaha
I think he has a longstanding concern about climate change and what it means for the future.
Maybe you’re only motivated by money. But many others of us aren’t.
Those screaming that the sky is falling don’t even understand themselves what they say. One article says this is equivalent to a 1,000-year flood. Well, guess what? Every 1,000 years or so, you’re going to have a 1,000-year flood. By definition. That doesn’t mean some freak occurrence or that man’s interference has caused it; it means that statistically, every 1,000 years or so, the “perfect storm” set of circumstances will fall together and cause the worst flood seen in 1,000 years.
When were the last three times Houston had a 1000-yr flood (or worse)?
That’s funny, because as a civil engineer with extensive hydrologic experience, worst case scenarios are only cited at 500 year storms, who invented the ‘1,000 year storm’ phenomenom?
Any water height that is X standard deviations above the mean can be simply translated into a Y-year flood. Basic statistics.
Dan, a 1000 year flood refers only to probability, not to frequency.
It’s the probability of intensity of flooding in any year – 0.1% in this case.
Likewise, a ‘500 year flood’ has a 0.2% probability of occurring in any given year. And a ‘100 year flood’ is a 1% probability.
What it doesn’t mean is that this kind of flooding happens once every 1000 years. You could have 2 ten years apart, and then not another for 1500 years, for example.
Like cards and dice, knowing the odds doesn’t tell you what will be flipped or when.
When was the last time Houston was hit by a “500-year” flood? Harvey is the third such flood in the last three years. Another struck less than 20 years ago, in 2001, when Tropical Storm Allison killed 22, stranded 30,000 residents, and wreaked $9 billion in damage.
I follow both sides of the climate debate, from a rather science-based mind-set. Larry Teig believes passionately that he correctly read and understood the threads that Roy Spencer wove together in his piece. Unfortunately, Larry’s passion may have wittingly or unwittingly blocked an objective reading of what Roy wrote and the points he was making. Larry’s bigoted, absolutist dismissal of Roy and his commentary displays that Larry is ideologically, but clearly not intellectually, all-in with the tribe that quit thinking, or perhaps never did think wholistically, about this most complex of subject matter. Once all-in, an absolutist can no longer allow any subsequent new daylight or learning, or even just openmindedness, into the equation because by definition it causes the existing absolutist religion to collapse upon its own logic. The most destructive factor preventing an intelligent national dialogue on climate change, a dialogue that all thinking people should want, is that reasonable people are holding a fulsome appreciation for the complexity, false negatives adn false positives, and hold higher standards of proof than do the emotionally committed Luddites of the ‘settled science’ tribe.
I am guessing Larry that you are probably a tenured college professor somewhere in NE (where I live) teaching Anthropology. What the author is trying to say is that random weather events happen at random locations at random times. As a highway construction inspection who doubles as the project environmental specialist, uncontrolled development creating unmanageable runoff from impervious surfaces, and the fact that the natural topography out in eastern Texas is flat, flooding of this nature was inevitable. Learn about science and engineering before you bash it, else go hang your hat down at the Student Union and coddle the SJW snowflakes assembled there crying out about global warming….a myth, just like your implied intelligence !
please sign me up for your blog updates
It stalled because it ran into a high pressure system. Do you think the high pressure was caused by global warming? Maybe it’s Boyle’s Law! We are reaching new levels of absurdity in this debate.
Regarding the 1935 flooding Dr Spencer wrote:
In December of 1935 a massive flood occurred in the downtown area as the water level height measured at Buffalo Bayou in Houston topped out at 54.4 feet. By way of comparison, as of 6:30 a.m. this (Monday) morning, the water level in the same location is at 38 feet, which is still 16 feet lower than in 1935.
Now compare this to whats written in the following article: https://www.wunderground.com/cat6/harvey-houston-most-extreme-rains-ever-major-us-city
From the article:
The biggest concern for central Houston is now the dual Addicks and Barker Reservoir system, which was designed and built in the 1940s for water levels expected to occur on average once every 1,000 years. Water began flowing around the north side of the Addicks dam and onto an spillway on Tuesday morning, the first uncontrolled release of water in the reservoirs history.
To me it seems reasonable that the difference in water level height between 1935 and 2017 at Buffalo Bayou could be due to these reservoirs. I think it is even more likely the flooding is much worse now and over a larger area. It is however always difficult to know how the urbanization etc plays into this so it is hard to quantify.
BUT, from this we learn that it is always dangerous to cherry-pick cases without the full context. A skeptical scientist should always try to contextualize claims. Unfortunately my feeling is that Dr Spencer only gives context from one side of the issue, which is not what a real skeptical scientist would do.
That seems like an even-handed comment to me. And not just because I agree with it.
Control factors. Tricky business.
Additional, one might need to consider that Houston has had major subsidence since it was settled. In this report, “Houston is sinking,” we learn that the downtown area has subsided some 6-7 feet since 1891 (would have subsided prior to that as well – as draining the swamp began in the 1030’s?
To the East of downtown, it’s as much as 10 feet. Graphic on the link.
Here’s article: http://www.houstonpress.com/news/houston-is-sinking-8528452
Here’s graphic: images1.houstonpress.com/imager/u/blog/8528458/houstonsubsidence2013web.jpg
This subsidence is from pumping out groundwater and aquifers collapsing. So it also has an anthropogenic explanation.
Hi Gary, yes I would likely agree that subsidence might have a role. But isnt that more a problem related to sea level rise and not to when the water comes from above, i.e. through rain?
I understand that when an area has subsided, rain-water from other less subsided areas around it will flow into it and cause worse flooding. But this likely depends strongly on the topography of the area and on other paths the water might take.
However, if rains fall over a large area that has the same amount of subsidence everywhere, then the rain will not cause a higher level of flooding, right? The flooding level is measured from the ground level at that particular site irrespective if the land has subsided or not. Or am I missing something? Huston downtown area is quite large according to the image you provided and the subsidence is uniform in a large part of it. But it would of course still accept a lot of water from areas around it with less subsidence.
It should however be noted that the 54 feet mentioned by Dr Spencer was at Buffalo Bayou close to the city centre but land subsidence is actually even greater closer to the sea according to your image. So more water would then flow from the Bayou towards the sea, right? Furthermore I am assuming Huston city centre is already at lower level than surrounding inland areas so would still accept water from those places even without subsidence, although at a reduced rate. The flow-rate is definitely an important factor though so the subsidence effect could anyhow make a contribution.
All in all it seems very difficult to quantify exactly the relative contributions of various factors. But my main take-home message would be:
if a scientist only presents arguments on one side and dont at least try to be objective and mention other aspect counter to the argument, then he/she is not a skeptical scientist that is interested in understanding the full context. No-one is perfect though so occasional slip-ups will always happen, but for some people it is obvious if you follow them over time that they are not being very skeptical in the true sense of the word. Of course this applies to both sides of the issue.
PS. Changed my name here to Martin J since there appears to be another Martin commenting on this blog that uses a language and tone that is not very constructive. Hope I dont have multiple personality disorder. 🙂 DS
Martin – “no’ to everything that you said. Consider. It’s still a bathtub effect, even if it’s not below sea level. Storm water accumulation is not going to accumulate to the same depth, and is going to run off much faster if this area were back at it’s original elevation – 6-10 feet higher – to the ocean (or bayou draining to the ocean).
ABSURDITY – HARVEY/AGW CONNECTION.
What a joke.
Indeed; however, those are not the words they are using. You can have a discussion/argument with someone saying that this bit of additional GW caused by man could be having a contribution to such storm systems.
They’re saying . . ‘Climate change means that when we do have an event like Harvey, the rainfall amounts are likely to be higher than they would have been otherwise, the UN organisations spokeswoman Clare Nullis told a conference.’
That’s a new definition for, ‘climate change.’
Statements on such a connection can be legitimate when including probability, rather than outright assertion. No one can predict the weather years in advance, but a different climate has different probability distribution. This is completely obvious when thinking of seasonal climate change. Can’t say what the exact average temperature the middle week of Summer will be, but we can speak with confidence of the likelihood it will be 4C to 8C warmer than the middle week of Winter.
barry,
Gavin Schmidt (undistinguished mathematician, non scientist, supposed “climatologist”) –
“2014 – hottest year EVAH!” (With a probability of 38%, from memory.)
Very confident, very stupid, and completely useless. Climatology at it’s finest! At least it’s good for a laugh. Can you provide anything useful? (The widely observed assumption that Winter will likely be cooler than Summer doesn’t require any deep scientific understanding – even birds fly to warmer climes as Winter approaches, on occasion.)
Got any other deep insights you’d like to share?
Cheers.
Gavin Schmidt (undistinguished mathematician, non scientist, supposed climatologist)
Quite as the Robertson troll, Flynn is a quickie in discrediting qualification and work of others, but of course without presenting any proof of what he spits.
‘Pfui Deibel’, Bavarian people would answer to such courageous hit under the belt.
I cite Wikipedia concerning Gavin Schmidt:
He was educated at The Corsham School, earned a BA (Hons) in mathematics at Jesus College, Oxford, and a PhD in applied mathematics at University College London.
How do you, Mr Flynn, compare e.g. with this?
https://www.giss.nasa.gov/staff/gschmidt/
Did you ever contribute anywhere to anywhat? Feel free to inform us…
NASA GISS’s original purpose was to “perform basic research in space sciences in support of Goddard Space Flight Center programs.” Hansen hijacked NASA GISS, changing its purpose to bogus climate change research nonsense.
Gavin continues the bastardization of NASA GISS. Schmidt has no science education at all. He’s a mathematician. We already know 1+1=2.
Schmidt should be fired, and replaced with a new director well educated in a field like Astrophysics (what a concept!), returning NASA GISS to its intended purpose. All NASA GISS climate scientists should be fired as well.
Furthermore, Gavin refused a climate change debate with Dr. Roy Spencer in 2013. He ran away with his tail between his legs. No wonder. Schmidt is a science ignoramus.
SkepticGoneWild
I have read enough such arrogant, redundant blah blah at WUWT, many thanks.
He’s like the boor at a party who takes a cue from anything you say to talk about themselves.
http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2017-08-31/scientist-confirms-harvey-caused-1-1000-year-flood
Dr Spencer’s attempt to downplay the magnitude of Hurricane Harvey was obviously written too early.
The maximum multi-day rain recording was 51.88 inches, not 39.7
http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/discussions/nfdscc1.html
The water level in Buffalo Bayou is 62.7 feet and still rising, a lot more than those 54.4 in 1935 that Dr Spencer highlights in this post.
http://www.khou.com/weather/hurricanes/hurricane-harvey/controlled-release-of-barker-addicks-reservoirs-to-impact-thousands/468348109
Also, back in 1935 there were no large Barker and Addicks reservoirs, made to contain excess rainwater and dampen flow and water levels downstream..
However, I guess that Dr Spencer as usual will dodge the subject, since reality busted his claims..
compelling evidence for increased flooding at a global scale is lacking.
http://wattsupwiththat.com/2017/08/31/flooding-not-increasing-in-north-america-and-europe-new-study-confirms/
There is overwhelming consensus that the intensity of heavy precipitation events is increasing in a warming world [but] only in the most extreme cases, for smaller catchments, do increases in precipitation at higher temperatures correspond to increases in streamflow.
https://www.nature.com/articles/s41598-017-08481-1
On balance, I think there is cause to believe that with ocean temperatures remaining relatively warm the oceans will continue to humidify the atmosphere, but with land temperatures falling more rapidly the increased temperature contrast will cause more intense precipitation events in the near future.
compelling evidence for increased flooding at a global scale is lacking.
Yes, while there has been an increase in flooding trends, it is statistically possible that the trend is due to chance alone.
“The overall occurrence of major floods in Europe from 1961 to 2010 increased, but not significantly, based on floods at 559 gauges (Fig. 3). The overall occurrence of major floods at 645 gauges in North America changed very little over this period. For the period 19312010, the overall occurrence of major floods in Europe (128 gauges) changed very little whilst floods increased overall in North America (194 gauges) but not significantly except for 25 year floods (Fig. 4).”
As noted in the comments at WUWT, failure to disprove the null does not therefore prove the null. Nothing definite can be said at this point.
Physically, though, one would expect worse flooding on coastlines with sea level rise. But that’s tied to trends in precipitation, which, if downward, might offset the effect of shallower run-off gradient. (The study controlled for urban development) As you note, heavier rainfall events are on the increase.
Conclusion: we might expect to see greater flooding, but current evidence of increase is not statistically significant.
but with land temperatures falling more rapidly
To what does this refer? Land temps have risen over time faster than SSTs.
Refers to expected cooling trend due to lower solar activity. Cooling oceans would lag cooling land masses. I don’t believe Dr. Spencer would think this significant.
I’m a bit quizzical about Europe and the US being a proxy for ‘global.’ That’s a fraction of one hemisphere. Reminds me of early ‘global’ temp records of the 80s, with the vast majority of weather station data coming from the same two places. The profile changed when the Southern Hemispheric weather station data was later added. However, the results are of a piece with the latest IPCC report on global flooding trends, which point is made clearly in the paper.
Belief allows you to be right; in your mind. Evidence works in a completely different way.
Cause and effect are not dependent on people’s opinions, beliefs, wishful thinking or denial. Fact. We have increased the atmospheric carbon in the last 200 years. This is the cause. The effects will be greater instability in weather patterns. Our lives are dependent on predictable, reliable, stable seasonal crops. It is prudent to therefore begin reducing our CO2 emissions. Your help would be appreciated.
Do you contend that Al Gore’s photographic evidence as shown in the first film was fake or doctored? What are your thoughts concerning the ozone having holes burned due to the white reflective glacier surface being melted and leaving dark water to absorb the suns heat?
I’m disappointed Trump wasn’t blamed.!!
Since the 1920’s the ground level in areas around Houston have dropped up to 12 feet. The Houston Chronicle lays out the historic effects of subsidence and flooding in an article in 2016. And yes it was due in large part to human activity.
http://www.houstonchronicle.com/news/houston-texas/houston/article/For-years-the-Houston-area-has-been-losing-ground-7951625.php
Doesn’t basic physic show our earth should be near 60 degrees colder and also we should be trending colder than hot based on the same science? Also noticed you didn’t focus on the winds – why was this? Seems you are leaving out many of the important pieces to the real discussion points to validate a half baked perception..
Thanks dear nice topic Regards, Brian
Why Houston Flooding Isnt a Sign of Climate Change Roy Spencer, PhD
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کاغذ دیواری
اتاق خواب
شرکت بین المللی آتا از سال 2006 میلادی شروع به فعالیت در زمینه حمل و نقل سریع کرد
آتا کلیه ی نیاز های شما مشتریان عزیز را از خرید و حمل کالا تا ترخیص با حداکثر سرعت و حداقل هزینه به انجام میرساند
ارجعیت ما بر ارائه سرویس به مقاصد کلیدی سراسر دنیا می باشد و با داشتن هاب بین المللی درمناطق تجاری دنیا تخصص گسترده عملیاتی را دارا می
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ممکن است به فرد مبتلا به کم شنوایی کمک کند تا توانایی شنیدن و درک گفتار را بهبود بخشد
گیتار اکوستیک
خریدی مطمعن با ما
خرید پیانو دیجیتال
از فروشگاه پیانو طنین
ویولن
معمولاً دارای چهار سیم است
خرید سیسمونی
یکی از مهم ترین اتفاقات زندگی میتواند باشد
کالسکه کودک
را از نی نی سیتی خریداری کنید زیرا نی نی سیتی بهترین فروشگاه سیسمونی است.
کریر
وسیله ای است که برای سهولت در حمل و مراقبت از نوزاد بر روی بدن یک مراقب قرار می گیرد
صندلی غذا خوری کودک
بسیار به مادران کمک میکند
سه چرخه کودک
میتواند برای کودکان شما وسیله ای نشاط آور و سرگرم کننده باشد
اسکوتر
وسیله ای سرگرم کننده برای کودکان شما
موتور شارژی
نوعی موتور اسباب بازی است، که تقریبا شبیه به موتور های واقعی ساخته می شود، با این تفاوت که به جای ایجاد کردن نیروی محرکه به وسیله بنزین برای حرکت از یک موتور الکتریکی و باتری بهره می برند.
سیسمونی کودک
را میتوانید از نینی سیتی تهیه کنید
کالسکه کودک
دلیجان بسیار قوی و فوق العاده انتخابی مناسب برای کودکان شماست
پیانو اکوستیک
بیشترین وسعت صوت را دارا می باشد
پیانو دیجیتال
را میتوان یک نوع ساز کیبورد الکترونیکی تعریف کرد که از لحاظ صدایی که تولید میکند و همچنین نواختن بینظیر است
پیانو اکوستیک
همیشه نوعی ساز بوده که می تواند صداهای زیبایی خلق کند تا زندگی مردم را شادتر و شادتر کند
فلوت
اگر به دنبال یک خرید فلوت خاص و اورجینال و یا یک فلوت دست دوم هستید، در فروشگاه بزرگ طنین ما انواع مختلفی از برترین برندهای جهانی را با بهترین قیمت خرید همراه با ارسال رایگان و امکان خرید اقساطی و مهلت تست همراه با مشاوره رایگان با کارشناسان و مربیان زبده در این حیطه که برای خدمت رسانی به شما مشتریان عزیز گرد هم آورده ایم.
پیانو دیجیتال
پیانوهای دیجیتال به دلیل کاهش هزینه در مقایسه با سازهای آکوستیک و همچنین ویژگی های دیجیتالی آنها مانند پخش هدفون و اتصال بلوتوث به طور فزاینده ای در بین نوازندگان پیانو محبوب شده اند.
گیتار اکوستیک
سیمهای گیتار را میتوان بهصورت جداگانه با یک پیک (پلکتروم) یا نوک انگشت کند، یا برای نواختن آکوردها به صدا در آمد.
خرید ویولا
بدنه ویولا به نسبت، شبیه به ویولن ساخته شده است، اما طول بدن آن ۳۷ تا ۴۳ سانتیمتر (۱۴.۵ تا ۱۷ اینچ) است که حدوداً ۵ سانتیمتر (۲ اینچ) بلندتر از ویولن است.
دوچرخه کودک
کودک شما با استفاده کردن از دوچرخه می تواند مهارت های بسیاری یاد بگیرد، که ما به شما عزیزان پیشنهاد میکنیم برای فرزند خود دوچرخه تهیه کنید.
سه چرخه
سه چرخه ها در دو مدل مونتاژی و غیر مونتاژی موجود هستند.
اسکوتر
یک وسیله ای سرگرم کننده برای کودکان عزیز شما
روروک
بهترین خرید شما برای سیسمونی میتواند باشد.
موتور شارژی
، نوعی موتور اسباب بازی است، که تقریبا شبیه به موتور های واقعی ساخته می شود، با این تفاوت که به جای ایجاد کردن نیروی محرکه به وسیله بنزین برای حرکت از یک موتور الکتریکی و باتری بهره می برند.
باجگیری عاطفی، نوعی از سو استفاده است که در آن افراد نزدیک به ما بخاطر انجام ندادن کاری که آنها میخواهند، ما را تهدید به مجازات میکنند.
کالسکه
کالسکه فقط یک کالسکه نیست. انواع مختلفی از کالسکه ها با قیمت های مختلف وجود دارد و هر کدام برای سبک زندگی یا نیاز خاصی در نظر گرفته شده اند.
دوچرخه کودک
اگر بودجه شما کم است می توانید دوچرخه کودک دست دوم نیز خریداری کنید
گیتار فلامنکو
برای گیتاریستهای سبکهای دیگر، نواختن فلامنکو به دلیل صدا، تونالیته و تکنیک آن یکی از معتبرترین سبکهای جهان است.
پیانو اکوستیک
پیدا کردن پیانو آکوستیک ارزان ، باکیفیت و مناسب به همان اندازه که به انتخاب بهترین کیفیت و صدا برای ساز شما بستگی دارد، به همان اندازه که در کجا و چگونه در فضای شما قرار می گیرد.
تست سرگیجه
این تست نیاز به همکاری و صبروحوصله بیمار دارد. بهتر است یک نفر همراه بیمار هنگام انجام تست باشد.
خرید سمعک
حس شنیدن لذت بی پایانی است که میتوانیم از تک تک لحظات زندگی نهایت استفاده را کنیم در واقع ، سمعک شما نه تنها توانایی برقراری ارتباط بلکه سلامت شما را نیز بهبود می بخشد.
وزوز گوش
وزوز گوش در سر بدون منبع خارجی صدا است
Thanks…
پیانو اکوستیک
برای خرید کلیک کنید
پیانو گرند
بزرگترین نوع و اغلب گرانترین نوع هستند
صدای
پیانو دیواری
به اندازه یک گرند بلند نیست
پیانو دیجیتال
به انواع مختلفی مانند پیانو دیجیتال دیواری، دیجیتال استیجی و … تقسیمبندی میشود
گیتار اکوستیک
افراد زیادی هستند که دوست دارند مهارت جدیدی مانند نواختن ساز را بیاموزند، اما از این روند و مشکلات احتمالی
دلسرد می شوند. گیتار آکوستیک یکی از نمونه های آن است. این یکی از محبوب ترین سازها در جهان است.
اما آیا یادگیری نواختن گیتار آکوستیک سخت است؟ بستگی به اهداف شما دارد.
گیتار فلامنکو
برای خرید کلیک کنید
گیتار کلاسیک
خرید گیتار کلاسیک اشتباه می تواند به این معنی باشد که شما علاقه و اشتیاق زیادی را برای پایبندی به این سرگرمی از دست می دهید!
ویولن
این ساز به قدری بزرگ است که نوازنده آن را روی زمین و بین پا های خود می گذارد. نوازنده روی صندلی می نشیند. صدای آن بم تر از ویولن و ویولا است. در قسمت انتهای تحتانی این ساز میله آهنی قرار داده شده است.
ویولا
برای بازیکنان مبتدی و متوسط، ویولا دست دوم به معنای بهترین نیست!
فلوت
فلوت ها آلات موسیقی استثنایی هستند که صدایی شفاف، گرم و روشن و نفس گیر تولید می کنند.
خرید ساکسیفون
از طنین دنیای مهر کلیک کنید
پیانو دیجیتال دست دو
بهترین پیانو دیجیتال های دست دو در طنین دنیای مهر
کالسکه کودک
خرید بهترین کالسکه کودک از نی نی سیتی
کریر
اولین نکته ای که باید به آن دقت کنید سایز و اندازه کریر مناسب فرزندتان است . در انتخاب کریر باید سن ، قد و وزن کودک خود را در نظر گرفته و براساس آن انتخاب ها ی خود را محدود کنید .
صندلی خودرو کودک
بهترین صندلی کودک در نی نی سیتی
صندلی غذاخوری کودک
صندلیهای غذا خوری ای که به چندین موقعیت تنظیم می شوند باعث میشوند که شما هنگام شیر دادن به کودک بسیار راحت باشید و این یکامیتاز برای یک صندلی غذاخوری کودک است.
دوچرخه کودک
دوچرخه را بر اساس سایز فرزندتان انتخاب کنید نه سن. برای بررسی تناسب، از او بخواهید سوار دوچرخه شود.
سه چرخه کودک
برای خرید بهترین سه چرخه کودک کلیک کنید
برای خرید بهترین
الاکلنگ
کلیک کنید
موتور شارژی
باتری به کار رفته در این موتورها قابل شارژ هستند و شما می توانید چندین بار آن ها را شارژ نمایید.
سرسره
بهترین وسیله سرگرمی برای کودکان شماست
اسکوتر
میتواند وسیله ای سرگرم کننده برای کودکان شما باشد
بهترین
روروک
در نی نی سیتی
داشتن
ساک لوازم کودک و نوزاد
یکی از مهمترین وسایل برای نوزادان و کودک شماست
ایا میدانید فروشگاه نی نی سیتی عرضه کننده بهترین
سرویس وان حمام
است
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پیانو اکوستیک
میتوان گفت یکی از بهترین پیانو ها بشمار می اید
پیانو دیجیتال دست دو
بهترین پیانو دیجیتال های دست دو در طنین دنیای مهر
گیتار فلامنکو
یکی از بهترین گیتار های حال حاضر است.
ویولن
های طنین دنیای مهر یک انتخابی به صرفه و مطمعن است
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با بهترین قیمت از اسشو
پخش عمده نیم تنه زنانه
با بهترین کیفیت و قیمت در اسشو
شلوار ورزی زنانه
پر فروش ترین محصول اسشپ!
ساک ورزشی
بهترین قیمت در اسشو!
فروش عمده ساک ورزشی
در اسشو!
فروش عمده لباس ورزشی
با نازل ترین قیمت در اسشو
لگ ورزشی
در اسشو با قیمت ارزان
گیتار فلامنکو
برای خرید کلیک کنید
گیتار اکوستیک
برای ارتباط بیشتر با ما در تماس باشید
برای خرید
گیتار اکوستیک دست دو
کلیک کنید
پیانو دیجیتال
برای خرید کلیک کنید
پیانو دیجیتال دست دو
بهترین و با کیفیت ترین پیان ها در طنین مهر
محتوای دیجیتال پایه و اساس تمام تعاملات آنلاین مشتری را تشکیل می دهد. خدمات سئو سایت نوآورانه ما فراتر از بهینه سازی ساده برای کلمات کلیدی بسیار جستجو شده است و در عوض تجربه را برای مخاطبان آنلاین واقعی برند شما بهینه می کند. این باعث بازگشت سرمایه بالاتر از سرمایه گذاری در سئو شما می شود.
پیانو اکوستیک دست دو
را از طنین دنیای مهر بخرید
پیانو اکوستیک دست دو
را از طنین مهر خریداری کنید
ویولا
در طنین دنیای مهر
ویولن
را با بهترین قیمت از طنین دنیای مهر خریداری کنید.
شال و روسری مجلسی
با بهترین قیمت در اسشو
شال و روسری نخی
در اشو
برای خرید بهترین
دامن شلواری
با قیمت ارزان کلیک کنید
سوتین زنانه
میتوانید به صورت عمده خرید کنید
بادی زنانه
با نازلترین قیمت در اسشو
لباس ورزشی زنانه
با بهترین قیمت در اسشو
برای خرید
ساک ورزشی
از اسشو کلیک کنید
لگ زنانه
برای خرید از فروشگاه اسشو کلیک کنید
کلاه تابستانی
با بهترین کیفیت در اسشو
ویولنسل
ارزان و باکیفیت در پیانو طنین
ساکسیفون
در طنین دنیای مهر با کیفیتی عالی
کنترباس
را از طنین دنیای مهر خریداری کنید.
کلینیک موج
خرید قسطی گیتار فلامنکو از طنین دنیای مهر
گیتار کلاسیک
با بهترین قیمت و کیفیت در طنین دنیای مهر
یک خرید به. صرفه
گیتار اکوستیک دست دو
گیتار کلاسیک دست دو
خریدی مطمعن از طنین دنیای مهر
سرهمی مجلسی
تنوع بسیار زیاد فقط در اسشو
سرهمی دخترانه
برای خریدکلیک کنید
نیم تنه ورزشی
برای خرید از اسشو کلیک کنید!
شورت ورزشی زنانه
اسشو یکی از بهترین فروشگاه های پخش عمده
آسشو
آسشو
بهترین فروشگاه پخش عمده پوشاک زنانه
پخش عمده پوشاک اسشو
بادی زنانه
برای خرید کلیک کنید
پیانو اکوستیک
بهترین انتخاب برای شماست!
پیانودیجیتال
بهترین انتخاب برای شماست!
گیتار فلامنکو دست دو
را فقط از طنین دنیای مهر خریداری کنید
ترومبون
برای خرید از طنین دنیای مهر کلیک کنید.
فلوت
آلات موسیقی استثنایی هستند که صدایی شفاف، گرم و روشن و نفس گیر تولید می کنند
پیانو گرند
معمولاً گرانتر از پیانوهای ایستاده هستند
پیانو دیواری
بهترین ها در طنین مهر
کلارینت
را میتوانید از طنین دنیای مهر خریداری کنید.
کلاه عقد
را میتوانید از بهترین فروشگاه یعنی اسشو خریداری کنید.
کلاه ورزشی زنانه
در اسشو
خرید عمده لگ
در فروشگاه اسشو
خرید عمده بادی
از اسشو
خرید عمده ساک ورزشی از فروشگاه اسشو
خرید نیم تنه
با بهترین قیمت
خرید کلاه تابستانی
از فروشگاه اسشو
انواع تشک یونیک به طور کلی به سه دسته : فنری ، طبی فنری ، فول طبی تقسیم بندی می شود .
تشک های طبی فنری ( فنر منفصل ): تشک های طبی فنری یونیک با فنر های پاکتی اسپرینگ به دلیل بهره گیری از فنر های منفصل به جای فنر های متصل به گونه ای طراحی و تولید شده اند که هر فنر به میزان فشار وارد شده از طرف قسمت های مختلف بدن فرد ، واکنش نشان داده و تغییر حالت می دهد و باعث می شود تا وزن بدن به طور مساوی توزیع شود و با توجه به سیستم فنر بندی به صورت SL وقتی شما روی تشک از جای خود تکان بخورید با این سیستم تکان شما به همبستر شما منتقل نخواهد شد .
پیانو دیجیتال
صنعتگران پیانو دیجیتال ما دقیقاً می دانند که چگونه می توانند حتی جزئی ترین تنظیمات را برای به حداکثر رساندن پتانسیل هر پیانو انجام دهند و اطمینان حاصل کنند که از نظر آکوستیک و زیبایی در شرایط بهینه است.
تیم ما همچنین آماده ارائه مشاوره و مراقبت های بعدی در صورت داشتن هرگونه سوال در مورد وضعیت پیانو پس از خرید است.
ما بهترین کیفیت و نازلترین قیمت هارا در فروشگاه طنین برای شما مهیا کرده ایم برای خرید
گیتار فلامنکو دست دو
کلیک کنید
گیتار اکوستیک
اگر به دنبال یک خرید گیتار آکوستیک خاص و اورجینال و یا یک گیتار آکوستیک دست دوم هستید، در فروشگاه بزرگ طنین ما انواع مختلفی از برترین برندهای جهانی را با بهترین قیمت خرید همراه با ارسال رایگان و امکان خرید اقساطی و مهلت تست همراه با مشاوره رایگان با کارشناسان و مربیان زبده در این حیطه که برای خدمت رسانی به شما مشتریان عزیز گرد هم آورده ایم.
گیتار کلاسیک
صدا بسیار مهمتر از ظاهر گیتار کلاسیک است. با این حال، در مورد خرید گیتار دست دوم، ظاهر اولین درک از گیتار را به شما می دهد.
پیانو دیجیتال دست دو
را از طنین دنیای مهر خریداری کنید.
برای خرید
پیانو اکوستیک
با طنین دنیای مهر در ارتباط باشید
بزرگترین فروشگاه برای خرید
پیانو اکوستیک دست دو
فقط از طنین دنیای مهر
ویولن را از طنین دنیای مهر بزرگترین فروشگاه تهران بخواهید
ویولنسل بررای خرید از طنین مهر کلیک کنید
فلوت
را میتوانید از طنین دنیای مهر خریداری کنید
شال و روسری
در اسشو
کلاه عقد
را از فروشگاه اسشو خریداری کنید!
کلاه مجلسی
با بهتریت قیمت ها در اسشو
کلاه ورزشی زنانه
با بهترین کیفیت در اسشو
شال و کلاه بافتنی برای خرید از اسشو کلیک کنید
سرهمی مجلسی زنانه
با بهترین کیفیت و قیمت فقط در اسشو
سرهمی کوتاه برای خرید از فروشگاه بزرگ اسشو کلیک کنید
سرهمی دخترانه
را فقط از اسشو خریداری کنید. اسشو بهترین فروشگاه عمده فروشی
شلوار جین با نازلترین قیمت و فروش عمده
پخش عمده لگ
در فروشگاه بزرگ اسشو
پخش عمده شلوار جین
را از سایت اسشو بخواهید.
پخش عمده شلوار ورزشیدر فروشگاه اسشو
پخش عمده ساک ورزشی
در فروشگاه اسشو
پخش عمده پوشاکدر اسشو
نیم تنه ورزشی
با اطمینان خاطر خرید کنید.
ست ورزشی زنانه
برای خرید با اسشو در تماس باشید.
گیتار کلاسیک ارزان
در پیانو طنین
گیتار اکوستیک ارزان
برای خرید با طنین مهر در ارتباط باشید
گیتار کلاسیک دست دو
در طنین مهر با بهترین قیمت
پیانو اکوستیک دست دو بهترین کیفیت در طنین دنیای مهر
پیانو دیجیتال ارزان
را از طنین دنیای مهر خریداری کنید
طنین مهر بزرگترین فروشگاه ابزار الات موسیقی
پیانو طنین
فروشگاهی با بهترین کیفیت و نازلترین قیمت در عرصه ابزار الات موسیقی
طنین مهر
خرید گیتار اکوستیک قسطی
از طنین دنیای مهر بزرگترین فروشگاه !
خرید پیانو اکوستیک قسطی با اطمینان از ما خرید کنید.
ساکسیفون
با بهترین قیمت و شرایط اقساطی
خرید عمده شلوار جین در اسشو
خرید عمده سرهمی شیک
فقط از فروشگاه اسشو
سرهمی کوتاه
با قیمتی مناسب در اسشو
سرهمی دخترانه
با بهترین کیفیت در فروشگاه اسشو
سرهمی اسپرت با نازلترین قیمت در اسشو
سرهمی مجلسی
در بزرگترین فروشگاه پوشاک زنانه اسشو
خرید عمده شورت ورزشی
از فروشگاه اسشو
خرید عمده سوتین
از اسشو بهترین فروشگاه تهران
فروشگاه اسشو بزگترین فروشگاه پخش عمده پوشاک زنانه
اسشو
سوتین زنانه را از اسشو بهترین فروشگاه پوشاک خریداری کنید
شلوار دامنی برای خرید از اسشو کلیک کنید
لگ برای خرید از اسشو کلیک کنید
خرید عمده شلوار ورزشی از اسشو
خرید عمده نیم تنه ورزشی از اسشو
خرید عمده ساک ورزشی با بهترین قیمت از اسشو
خرید عمده لباس ورزشی زنانه
از اسشو
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اسشو بهترین فروشگاه پوشاک زنانه تهران
اسشو یکی از بهترین و بزرگترین فروشگاه های پخش عمده پوشاک ورزشی است!
برای خرید شلوار ورزشی زنانه از فروشگاه بزرگ اسشو با ما در ارتباط باشید.
فروش و پخش عمده بادی های زنانه در اسشو!
پخش و فروش عمده شلوار دامنی در اسشو.
لباس ورزشی زنانه با بهترین قیمت در اسشو
نیم تنه ورزشی با بهترین کیفیت در اسشو
فروش و پخش ساک ورزشی با نازلترین قیمت در اسشو
برای خرید سوتین زنانه از اسشو کلیک کنید.
برای خرید
شلوار جین
از اسشو کلیک کنید
شلوار ورزشی زنانه را فقط از فروشگاه اسشو خریداری کنید.
خرید عمده ساک ورزشی از اسشو
خرید عمده لباس ورزشی در اسشو
لگ ورزشی زنانه
با بهترین قیمت در اسشو
شورت ورزشی با نازلترین قیمت در اسشو
خرید عمده شورت ورزشیدر اسشو
خرید عمده لگ ورزشی از فروشگاه بزرگ اسشو
اسشو بهترین فروشگاه پخش عمده پوشاک در تهران
خرید عمده لگ زنانه از فروشگاه اسشو
برای خرید از فروشگاه اسشو کلیک کنید
برای خرید شلوار ورزشی با ما در ارتباط باشید
بادی با قیمت ارزان فقط از اسشو
بهترین کیفیت بادی در اسشو
میتوانید از اسشو با بهترین قیمت لگ را خریداری کنید.
برای خرید لگ با اسشو بزرگترین فروشگاه در تهران در ارتباط باشید
در اسشو بهترین کیفیت و بهترین قیمت لگ را خریداری کنید.
شلوار جین با قیمتی مناسب و ارزان در اسشو
بادی های با کیفیت و ارزان در اسشو
برای خرید سرهمی مجلسی کلیک کنید!
شلوار ورزشی های زنانه با کیفیت فقط در اسشو
برای خرید از فروشگاه اسشو کلیک کنید
برای خرید نیم تنه ورزشی از اسشو کلیک کنید
لباس ورزشی با کیفیت و ارزان را از اسشو خریداری کنید
ساک ورزشی باکیفیت از اسشو
برای خرید از اسشو کلیک کنید
شورت ورزشی زنانه ارزان در اسشو
اجاره ویلا استخردار از جاباما
بهترین سایت رزرو انواع اقامتگاه و هتل
با پشتیبانی 24 ساعته
برای خرید پیانو اکوستیک دست دو با ما در ارتباط باشید.
برای خرید از طنین مهر کلیک کنید
در طنین دنیای مهر میتوانید قسطی خرید کنید.
با خرید از طنین دنیای مهر از کیفیت محصول مطمعن باشید!
با ما در ارتباط باشیدطنین بهترین فروشگاه ابزار الات موسیقی
پیانو دیجیتال قسطی با کیفیت در طنین مهر
برای خرید پیانو گرند قسطی از طنین با ما در ارتباط باشید.
خرید بهترین ابزار الات موسیقی از طنین
میتوانید با بهترین قیمت از طنین مهر پیانو دیواری قسطی خریداری کنید
خرید با بهترین قیمت از طنین مهر
گیتار اکوستیک ارزان قیمت از طنین دنیای مهر
خرید بهترین گیتار های اکوستیک قسطی از طنین مهر
برای خرید بهترین گیتار های اکوستیک دست دو کلیک کنید
برای خرید گیتار فلامنکو ارزان از طنین مهر کلیک کنید
خرید از بزرگترین فروشگاه تهران طنین دنیای مهر
برای خرید با کیفیت ترین گیتار های فلامنکو کلیک کنید
برای خرید گیتار کلاسیک کلیک کنید
طنین دنیای مهر بهترین فروشگاه
بهتریم کیفیت گیتار کلاسیک را از طنین مهر بخواهید.