Home/BlogThe Version 6.1 global average lower tropospheric temperature (LT) anomaly for October, 2025 was +0.53 deg. C departure from the 1991-2020 mean, unchanged from the September, 2025 value.
The Version 6.1 global area-averaged linear temperature trend (January 1979 through October 2025) remains at +0.16 deg/ C/decade (+0.22 C/decade over land, +0.13 C/decade over oceans).
The following table lists various regional Version 6.1 LT departures from the 30-year (1991-2020) average for the last 22 months (record highs are in red).
| YEAR | MO | GLOBE | NHEM. | SHEM. | TROPIC | USA48 | ARCTIC | AUST |
| 2024 | Jan | +0.80 | +1.02 | +0.58 | +1.20 | -0.19 | +0.40 | +1.12 |
| 2024 | Feb | +0.88 | +0.95 | +0.81 | +1.17 | +1.31 | +0.86 | +1.16 |
| 2024 | Mar | +0.88 | +0.96 | +0.80 | +1.26 | +0.22 | +1.05 | +1.34 |
| 2024 | Apr | +0.94 | +1.12 | +0.76 | +1.15 | +0.86 | +0.88 | +0.54 |
| 2024 | May | +0.78 | +0.77 | +0.78 | +1.20 | +0.05 | +0.20 | +0.53 |
| 2024 | June | +0.69 | +0.78 | +0.60 | +0.85 | +1.37 | +0.64 | +0.91 |
| 2024 | July | +0.74 | +0.86 | +0.61 | +0.97 | +0.44 | +0.56 | -0.07 |
| 2024 | Aug | +0.76 | +0.82 | +0.69 | +0.74 | +0.40 | +0.88 | +1.75 |
| 2024 | Sep | +0.81 | +1.04 | +0.58 | +0.82 | +1.31 | +1.48 | +0.98 |
| 2024 | Oct | +0.75 | +0.89 | +0.60 | +0.63 | +1.90 | +0.81 | +1.09 |
| 2024 | Nov | +0.64 | +0.87 | +0.41 | +0.53 | +1.12 | +0.79 | +1.00 |
| 2024 | Dec | +0.62 | +0.76 | +0.48 | +0.52 | +1.42 | +1.12 | +1.54 |
| 2025 | Jan | +0.45 | +0.70 | +0.21 | +0.24 | -1.06 | +0.74 | +0.48 |
| 2025 | Feb | +0.50 | +0.55 | +0.45 | +0.26 | +1.04 | +2.10 | +0.87 |
| 2025 | Mar | +0.57 | +0.74 | +0.41 | +0.40 | +1.24 | +1.23 | +1.20 |
| 2025 | Apr | +0.61 | +0.77 | +0.46 | +0.37 | +0.82 | +0.85 | +1.21 |
| 2025 | May | +0.50 | +0.45 | +0.55 | +0.30 | +0.15 | +0.75 | +0.99 |
| 2025 | June | +0.48 | +0.48 | +0.47 | +0.30 | +0.81 | +0.05 | +0.39 |
| 2025 | July | +0.36 | +0.49 | +0.23 | +0.45 | +0.32 | +0.40 | +0.53 |
| 2025 | Aug | +0.39 | +0.39 | +0.39 | +0.16 | -0.06 | +0.69 | +0.11 |
| 2025 | Sep | +0.53 | +0.56 | +0.49 | +0.35 | +0.38 | +0.77 | +0.32 |
| 2025 | Oct | +0.53 | +0.52 | +0.55 | +0.24 | +1.12 | +1.42 | +1.67 |
The full UAH Global Temperature Report, along with the LT global gridpoint anomaly image for October, 2025, and a more detailed analysis by John Christy, should be available within the next several days here.
The monthly anomalies for various regions for the four deep layers we monitor from satellites will be available in the next several days at the following locations:
Looking at the departures table. If I look at changes month to month for Australia I’d guess that the standard deviation from the mean is greater than any other area on the table. If so, doesn’t that suggest concern about the reliability of the provided readings? I would guess that Roy has the ability to provide that statistic for each region and the globe. We should expect the entire globe to have the smallest standard deviation, correct?
Only if weather fits some kind of randomised statistical distribution and I don’t see why it should be.
This is stratosphere, so it’s not a great analogy, but if you have a large pressure difference leading to extreme weather in one location, the pressure gradients will lead to (the other) extreme weather at the other end of the gradient. The planet is all connected but Australia seems particularly so. When Perth swelters, chances are the Kimberly is well below average and vice versa. Seems to apply along latitudes too. But that’s all hunches, no actual analysis of data.
The big flaw in climate science was to settle on the conclusion that all the significant non-random cycles are known and quantified and having eliminated them, the only thing left was (anthropogenic) CO2.
Weather does fit a statistical distribution. Weather is not random. The average temperature (a statistical distribution) is higher in summer and lower in winter. The greater the deviation from the mean, the less we can rely on the the temperature being near average on any given day. This is a fact. It is science.
So, if the deviations for increases and decreases in average temperature over some stated period are greater than the same statistic for another area, it suggests something is either different about weather/climate in that area or the data should be considered as possibly faulty.
I haven’t done the calculation for these areas, but Australia is the smallest region in the table, hence subject to less area averaging, so the expectation is that its standard deviation would be the largest.
All of this data is available, so virtually any sufficiently motivated person can pull it down and do the calculation.
“If I look at changes month to month for Australia I’d guess that the standard deviation from the mean is greater than any other area on the table.”
Looking at all months, the SD for Australia is 0.65C, for the USA48 region it’s 0.77C.
” If I look at changes month to month for Australia I’d guess that the standard deviation from the mean is greater than any other area on the table. ”
Maybe you mean ‘maximal’ instead of ‘standard’.
If you calculate, for all 27 zones and regions, the lowest resp. the highest anomaly since Dec 1978 and build their difference you obtain this:
SP_Land 5.99 (C)
USA48 5.47
NP_Ocean 4.94
NP_Land 4.62
NoPol 4.45
USA49 4.22
AUST 4.10
SoPol 3.87
SE_Land 3.71
SP_Ocean 3.02
SH_Land 2.99
NE_Land 2.91
NH_Land 2.66
Tr_Land 2.63
Trpcs 2.25
Gl_Land 2.25
Tr_Ocean 2.17
NoExt 2.14
NH 1.96
NE_Ocean 1.78
NH_Ocean 1.76
Globe 1.61
SH 1.52
SH_Ocean 1.45
Gl_Ocean 1.45
SoExt 1.44
SE_Ocean 1.39
*
Thus, the South Pole’s land part wins, and USA48 (the contiguous part of the US) is second; the lowest difference you see at the ocean part of the Southern Extratropics.
The increase in global LT temperature is accelerating, based on a second-order polynomial fit to the data series. The instantaneous rate of warming is now 0.28 degrees C per decade.
Are you going to extrapolate that polynomial? 🙂
Doesn’t really look like 98.
Third warmest October since 1979, though someway down from the previous two years.
Year Anomaly
1 2023 0.78
2 2024 0.75
3 2025 0.53
4 2017 0.47
5 2020 0.36
6 2021 0.34
7 2015 0.28
8 2016 0.28
9 2019 0.27
10 1998 0.24
October 2022 is just below 1998 at 0.23, so the last 7 Octobers are in the top 11.
My projection for 2025 is now 0.48 +/- 0.05, virtually unchanged from last months, but with more certainty. Now very likely to finish 2nd warmest. Temperatures will have to drop to around 0.1C for the next two months for 2025 to finish below 2023.
“The monthly anomalies for various regions for the four deep layers we monitor from satellites will be available in the next several days”
These values haven’t been updated for September yet. I’m not sure if this is just an oversight or a problem with the data collection.
2025 Sep +0.53
2025 Oct +0.53
Looks like I called it right, again.
This is also the warmest October for Australia in the UAH history, by some way. Beating the record set last year by 0.58C.
In fact it’s the second warmest anomaly for any month, just behind August 2024.