Home/BlogThe Version 6.1 global average lower tropospheric temperature (LT) anomaly for February, 2026 was +0.39 deg. C departure from the 1991-2020 mean, up a little from the January, 2026 value of +0.35 deg. C.
The Version 6.1 global area-averaged linear temperature trend (January 1979 through February 2026) remains at +0.16 deg/ C/decade (+0.22 C/decade over land, +0.13 C/decade over oceans).
The following table lists various regional Version 6.1 LT departures from the 30-year (1991-2020) average for the last 26 months (record highs are in red).
| YEAR | MO | GLOBE | NHEM. | SHEM. | TROPIC | USA48 | ARCTIC | AUST |
| 2024 | Jan | +0.80 | +1.02 | +0.57 | +1.20 | -0.19 | +0.40 | +1.12 |
| 2024 | Feb | +0.88 | +0.94 | +0.81 | +1.16 | +1.31 | +0.85 | +1.16 |
| 2024 | Mar | +0.88 | +0.96 | +0.80 | +1.25 | +0.22 | +1.05 | +1.34 |
| 2024 | Apr | +0.94 | +1.12 | +0.76 | +1.15 | +0.86 | +0.88 | +0.54 |
| 2024 | May | +0.77 | +0.77 | +0.78 | +1.20 | +0.04 | +0.20 | +0.52 |
| 2024 | June | +0.69 | +0.78 | +0.60 | +0.85 | +1.36 | +0.63 | +0.91 |
| 2024 | July | +0.73 | +0.86 | +0.61 | +0.96 | +0.44 | +0.56 | -0.07 |
| 2024 | Aug | +0.75 | +0.81 | +0.69 | +0.74 | +0.40 | +0.88 | +1.75 |
| 2024 | Sep | +0.81 | +1.04 | +0.58 | +0.82 | +1.31 | +1.48 | +0.98 |
| 2024 | Oct | +0.75 | +0.89 | +0.60 | +0.63 | +1.89 | +0.81 | +1.09 |
| 2024 | Nov | +0.64 | +0.87 | +0.40 | +0.53 | +1.11 | +0.79 | +1.00 |
| 2024 | Dec | +0.61 | +0.75 | +0.47 | +0.52 | +1.41 | +1.12 | +1.54 |
| 2025 | Jan | +0.45 | +0.70 | +0.21 | +0.24 | -1.07 | +0.74 | +0.48 |
| 2025 | Feb | +0.50 | +0.55 | +0.45 | +0.26 | +1.03 | +2.10 | +0.87 |
| 2025 | Mar | +0.57 | +0.73 | +0.41 | +0.40 | +1.24 | +1.23 | +1.20 |
| 2025 | Apr | +0.61 | +0.76 | +0.46 | +0.36 | +0.81 | +0.85 | +1.21 |
| 2025 | May | +0.50 | +0.45 | +0.55 | +0.30 | +0.15 | +0.75 | +0.98 |
| 2025 | June | +0.48 | +0.48 | +0.47 | +0.30 | +0.80 | +0.05 | +0.39 |
| 2025 | July | +0.36 | +0.49 | +0.23 | +0.45 | +0.32 | +0.40 | +0.53 |
| 2025 | Aug | +0.39 | +0.39 | +0.39 | +0.16 | -0.06 | +0.82 | +0.11 |
| 2025 | Sep | +0.53 | +0.56 | +0.49 | +0.35 | +0.38 | +0.77 | +0.30 |
| 2025 | Oct | +0.53 | +0.52 | +0.55 | +0.24 | +1.12 | +1.42 | +1.67 |
| 2025 | Nov | +0.43 | +0.59 | +0.27 | +0.24 | +1.32 | +0.78 | +0.36 |
| 2025 | Dec | +0.30 | +0.45 | +0.15 | +0.19 | +2.10 | +0.32 | +0.37 |
| 2026 | Jan | +0.35 | +0.51 | +0.19 | +0.09 | +0.30 | +1.40 | +0.95 |
| 2026 | Feb | +0.39 | +0.54 | +0.23 | +0.03 | +1.91 | -0.48 | +0.73 |
The full UAH Global Temperature Report, along with the LT global gridpoint anomaly map for February, 2026 and a more detailed analysis by John Christy, should be available within the next several days here.
The monthly anomalies for various regions for the four deep layers we monitor from satellites will be available in the next several days at the following locations:
6th warmest February
1 2024 0.88
2 2016 0.70
3 2020 0.57
4 2025 0.50
5 1998 0.49
6 2026 0.39
7 2010 0.30
8 2017 0.30
9 2019 0.21
10 2021 0.20
Global anomalies still very close to the long term linear trend, which is surprising given the La Nina conditions over the past year or so.
March could be interesting as ERA shows a big drop in anomalies in the last week of February.
Still have a water vapor from that volcano. Water vapor is a much stronger greenhouse gas than CO2
https://acd-ext.gsfc.nasa.gov/Data_services/met/qbo/h2o_MLS_vPRE_qbo_00N.png
” Water vapor is a much stronger greenhouse gas than CO2 ”
This is not wrong of course, but is valid only at the surface and in the lower troposphere at altitudes up to 5 km and pressures from 1000 down to 500 hPa.
The water vapor average concentration in the lower troposphere is about 0.4 %, i.e. 4000 ppm, and can go near the surface in the Tropics up to 5 % i.e. 50000 ppm.
What you proudly show, however is the lower and mid stratosphere at altitudes between 15 and 40 km and pressures between 100 and 3 hPa.
If you look at the green part of the color scale, you see a water vapor concentration from 0 up to 1 ppm, i.e. 4000 times lower than in the lower troposphere.
And this 1 ppm in the stratosphere is also about 400 times lower than CO2, as this gas has on average the same concentration in both atmospheric layers.
According to the Oceanic Niño Index (ONI), there hasn’t been a La Niña event since the last El Niño (2023-2024). There have been some recent negative values, but not negative enough to be classified as La Niña.
ONI has been phased out.
https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/enso/roni/announcement.php
According to MEI, the Multivariate ENSO Index, much more accurate than ONI (nino3+4), there was of course a La Nina episode which started in July 2025 and lasts until right now:
https://psl.noaa.gov/enso/mei/img/meiv2.timeseries.png
Data
https://psl.noaa.gov/enso/mei/data/meiv2.data
US temps up again, but Arctic negative by a sizeable degree.
The Arctic is warming rapidly.
As a northeastern USAian who has experienced one of the cooler winters in the past couple of decades, I expected (without looking at other data) that the Arctic would be on the warm side this past month due to Arctic air being diverted to my neighborhood, but that seems not to be the case. Qualitatively, “climate reanalyzer” seems to be consistent with the UAH observation for February in that the past month’s surface temperature anomaly for the Arctic was on the cool side relative to recent years.
https://climatereanalyzer.org/clim/t2_daily/?dm_id=arctic
That is, I agree with your assertion that “the Arctic is warming” rapidly” (on a long term average), but the data for this month seems to be a cold side outlier.
That all depends on when your start point is. It’s probably back to what it was in the 1930s/40s. By 2034, it will have started to cool just as ‘rapidly’. It’s just a cycle.
” It’s probably back to what it was in the 1930s/40s. By 2034, it will have started to cool just as ‘rapidly’. It’s just a cycle. ”
As usual, Buzz posts vague assertions without any source let alone data backing them.
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Even if their time series starts with 1871, Met Office has IMHO no valuable data for sea ice back to the ‘1930/40s’; one starts better with 1951.
Let’s therefore have a look at their HadICE data, going till Dec 25:
https://drive.google.com/file/d/1WcsjTtbsk8Dd93TprKT8_dYVHncGg9v2/view
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Not the least bit of a cycle to be seen there. Pure invention, as so often!
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And in case of anyone denying the value of anomalies, here is the absolute data they were obtained from by removing the annual cycle:
https://drive.google.com/file/d/1QtzRyo4uFIcsRMyiorlFRa3UgRSGyPxy/view
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Buzz probably obtained his Arctic ‘opinion’ from Watts’ WUWT, a blog best known as Heartland’s and GWPF’s loudest megaphone.
” It’s probably back to what it was in the 1930s/40s. By 2034, it will have started to cool just as ‘rapidly’. It’s just a cycle. ”
As usual, Buzz posts vague assertions without any source let alone data backing them.
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Even if their time series starts with 1871, Met Office has IMHO no valuable data for sea ice back to the ‘1930/40s’; one starts better with 1951.
Let’s therefore have a look at their Arctic sea ice extent data, going till Dec 25:
https://drive.google.com/file/d/1WcsjTtbsk8Dd93TprKT8_dYVHncGg9v2/view
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Not the least bit of a cycle to be seen there. Pure invention of the poster, as so often!
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And in case of anyone doubting the correctness of anomalies, here is the absolute data series they were obtained from, by removing its annual cycle:
https://drive.google.com/file/d/1QtzRyo4uFIcsRMyiorlFRa3UgRSGyPxy/view
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Buzz probably obtained his Arctic ‘opinion’ from Watts’ WUWT, Heartland’s megaphone.
Met Office’s source:
https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/hadobs/hadisst/data/download.html
Mark B,
Yes, the Arctic leaned colder in February, but it still ranked as only the 11th coldest February in the UAH NoPol dataset.
Buzz
[“That all depends on when your start point is. It’s probably back to what it was in the 1930s/40s. By 2034, it will have started to cool just as ‘rapidly’. It’s just a cycle.”]
A broken record:
https://wattsupwiththat.com/2014/01/30/is-the-climate-sell-signal-imminent/
Feeling dumb?
Just remember there are skeptics who see one colder than average month in a single region and decide that anthropogenic global warming must be a myth:
https://tinyurl.com/2ke5wsdk
Bindidon,
It is playful sport to describe WUWT blog and assert links to Heartland Institute. That is easy social politics stuff.
For we scientists, the more interesting question is “What serious mistakes, if any, have they made?”
Would you like to offer a reply? Geoff S